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(Telegraph)   Russian flag raised in Crimea. This is not a repeat from 1853   (telegraph.co.uk) divider line 136
    More: Followup, Crimean, Russians, Ukraine, combat aircraft, Russian flag, regional government, Nikita Khrushchev, President Viktor Yanukovich  
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4853 clicks; posted to Main » on 27 Feb 2014 at 8:00 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-02-27 09:12:27 AM  

NobleHam: Marcus Aurelius: that1guy77: I'm thinking worst-case scenario: Invasion... but am, of course, hoping for the best. Reason being: In addition to the previously mentioned, Russia learned from their previous 2008 adventure in Georgia that the western powers will sit idly -- whoever really started it is besides the point

There is the small matter of exactly how we could do anything militarily.  NATO could do it by invading Poland first, I suppose, but that presents its own problems.

The biggest problem being that Poland is a NATO member?


So they'd welcome an invading army with open arms?

Let's be practical here.
 
2014-02-27 09:14:17 AM  

ColonelCathcart: that1guy77: The Ukraine is to Russia what Syria is to Iran and they'll do everything to hold on to it. Geographically and strategically, Ukraine was the core of the former USSR, and as far as Putin is concerned, the nation isn't up for discussion or negotiation. To Putin, as it's part of Russia. Putin will do whatever it takes to ensure Ukraine belongs to him. Putin has options should he decide on intervention. He could provide military support to Yanukovich, raise energy prices, levy Ukrainian exports into Russia, or impose any number of economic measures designed to send a shot across the bow of the pro-West protesters. But getting tough with Ukraine right now is risky as it would only inflame anti-Russian sentiment.

I'm thinking worst-case scenario: Invasion... but am, of course, hoping for the best. Reason being: In addition to the previously mentioned, Russia learned from their previous 2008 adventure in Georgia that the western powers will sit idly -- whoever really started it is besides the point. The Ukraine, like Georgia, is not a NATO member, and therefore, an attack on this one is not an attack on all. I can' t see how Russia would stand by idly and allow for this to happen. It's been repeated over and over again from military leaders that this won't be allowed to transpire. One such example: Russia warns US on Ukraine, says Moscow could act ...

Whatever happens, the longer the protests continue and the shakier the Yanukovich government becomes, as we're seeing right now, the more anxious Putin will grow -- and an anxious Putin is a very dangerous Putin.


It is no longer a Yanukovich Government. He has been expelled from his party:
Yanukovych impeachment - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_of_Regions#Yanukovych_impeachment

On 22 February 2014, during the "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_of_Regions#cite_note-Yanuousted-97 ">[97] Out of the 38 PoR deputies present, 36 voted in favour of ousting Yanukovich while 2 did not take part in the vote.[98 ...


Meh... I'm not here to split hairs, but political loyalty in just about any country would take the same turn when the SHTF. It's still in principal his government, and has crumbled.
 
2014-02-27 09:15:15 AM  

spawn73: That's a long post, with a lot of statements made as facts, that will of course be proven completely wrong over the next few days/weeks.

Hope that doesn't bother you to much. :)


I agree with him that Putin will not surrender Sevastopol.  No way that happens.  So something has to give.
 
2014-02-27 09:15:18 AM  

greentea1985: I fully expect Ukraine to split in the next few months with the resulting countries being either Europe-friendly West Ukraine and the Russian client state East Ukraine, or into Ukraine and the new Russian province of Crimea. Now Yanukovich has gone running into the arms of his girlfriend Putin, I expect one of those outcomes, as long as Russia has the sense to not pull a USSR on Hungary. They've lost the Western portion of Ukraine, but the Eastern half still wants close ties with Russia or to be Russian.


You mean Crimea will be returned to being the Crimean Oblast, which it was until the 1950s.
 
2014-02-27 09:16:09 AM  

Mr. Breeze: I'd bet money there are more than a few Russian Spetznas involved in this.


No joke.  I can't believe there were people in the Ukraine thread yesterday who actually believed Russia's statement that they wouldn't get militarily involved in Ukraine.  If they aren't involved already, they're going to use this as an excuse.
 
2014-02-27 09:17:31 AM  

spawn73: danzak:

Also, the Crimean Tartars do not want to join Russia and they're claim to the Crimea is much stronger than the Russians. That's who is fighting with the separatists now.

They only make up about 10% of the population.

AFAIK they have no reason to want to be a part of Ukraine either than it being the better of the two choices.


I meant historically.  They've been there since the Middle Ages.  Stalin threw them out, they started to come back after the USSR fell apart
 
2014-02-27 09:17:36 AM  

Marcus Aurelius: that1guy77: I'm thinking worst-case scenario: Invasion... but am, of course, hoping for the best. Reason being: In addition to the previously mentioned, Russia learned from their previous 2008 adventure in Georgia that the western powers will sit idly -- whoever really started it is besides the point

There is the small matter of exactly how we could do anything militarily.  NATO could do it by invading Poland first, I suppose, but that presents its own problems.  An amphibious invasion at Sevastopol would start a shooting war with Russia.  And nobody in the region is eager to see a foreign army roll over their soil.

So direct military intervention is off the table.


If you don't mind... Could you please explain why on earth would NATO invade itself? Besides, we're dealing with opinions, and 'no invasion' just happens to be yours. I'm not passing mine of as fact.
 
2014-02-27 09:20:29 AM  

Marcus Aurelius: spawn73: That's a long post, with a lot of statements made as facts, that will of course be proven completely wrong over the next few days/weeks.

Hope that doesn't bother you to much. :)

I agree with him that Putin will not surrender Sevastopol.  No way that happens.  So something has to give.


He doesn't have to.  They have a lease for the naval base until like 2025 or something.  I don't see any threat to that.
 
2014-02-27 09:21:41 AM  

spawn73: Ring of Fire: I know we had naval assets in the Black Sea for the Olympics. Anyone know if they are still there or if they've left?
Also what is the Turks take on this whole deal. Would they allow NATO ships into the Black Sea.

Why would NATO be involved in this? No one except complete idiots thinks this situation involves NATO or USA in any way or form.

But yeah, I am pretty sure a NATO member like Turkey doesn't have a problem with letting its own farking coalition enter the black sea.


Yes I know turkey is in NATO I just forgot for a second need more coffe see above.

I'm not saying that NATO should be involved but if the had to get to involved it would be nice to know we can get in there. Also a few ships sitting in the Black Sea could be a good detergent to russian involvement.
The last thing I want is NATO involvement. I fully expect at least Crimea to leave Ukraine. I know it's an autonomous republic and I have no idea what the deal with them leaving would be or if the can legally just leave, but the problem I see is if all of southern Ukraine wants to leave I don't see the Ukrainians letting that happen.
They won't want to let Odessa go and become a landlocked country.
Russian expansion would put the Eastern European NATO members on edge to say the least so it's not a bad idea to have some plan of action even if it's a worse case scenario.
 
2014-02-27 09:22:16 AM  

spawn73: that1guy77: The Ukraine is to Russia what Syria is to Iran and they'll do everything to hold on to it. Geographically and strategically, Ukraine was the core of the former USSR, and as far as Putin is concerned, the nation isn't up for discussion or negotiation. To Putin, as it's part of Russia. Putin will do whatever it takes to ensure Ukraine belongs to him.

<snip>

That's a long post, with a lot of statements made as facts, that will of course be proven completely wrong over the next few days/weeks.

Hope that doesn't bother you to much. :)


Not at all. It makes for a much more interesting life to be analytical, right or wrong, instead of someone sitting on the stands who thinks he knows better or can do better than the players. xoxo
 
2014-02-27 09:22:27 AM  

that1guy77: Marcus Aurelius: that1guy77: I'm thinking worst-case scenario: Invasion... but am, of course, hoping for the best. Reason being: In addition to the previously mentioned, Russia learned from their previous 2008 adventure in Georgia that the western powers will sit idly -- whoever really started it is besides the point

There is the small matter of exactly how we could do anything militarily.  NATO could do it by invading Poland first, I suppose, but that presents its own problems.  An amphibious invasion at Sevastopol would start a shooting war with Russia.  And nobody in the region is eager to see a foreign army roll over their soil.

So direct military intervention is off the table.

If you don't mind... Could you please explain why on earth would NATO invade itself? Besides, we're dealing with opinions, and 'no invasion' just happens to be yours. I'm not passing mine of as fact.


OK, OK, OK.  When I said "invade Poland", what I was implying is that the Poles are not going to look kindly on NATO armored columns traversing Poland in order to attack the Russians in the Ukraine.  Politically it's not going to happen.  That's what I meant by "invade Poland".

So I humbly apologize to everyone here who thinks I don't know that Poland is a part of NATO.  Just because Poland is a part of NATO doesn't mean that Poland does what NATO says.

Is that OK with everyone, or do I have to say a dozen Hail Drews first?
 
2014-02-27 09:23:25 AM  
img.fark.net

/approves
 
2014-02-27 09:23:56 AM  

danzak: They have a lease for the naval base until like 2025 or something


Oh, that long.  That's like, what, another 11 years.  I'm sure that will ease Putin's fevered mind.
 
2014-02-27 09:24:32 AM  

FlashHarry: [img.fark.net image 620x413]

/approves


I always wondered if that's where you got your handle.
 
2014-02-27 09:25:56 AM  

Marcus Aurelius: FlashHarry: [img.fark.net image 620x413]

/approves

I always wondered if that's where you got your handle.


yup. one of my all-time favorite literary characters.
 
2014-02-27 09:26:10 AM  

danzak: Marcus Aurelius: spawn73: That's a long post, with a lot of statements made as facts, that will of course be proven completely wrong over the next few days/weeks.

Hope that doesn't bother you to much. :)

I agree with him that Putin will not surrender Sevastopol.  No way that happens.  So something has to give.

He doesn't have to.  They have a lease for the naval base until like 2025 or something.  I don't see any threat to that.


Under the regime that was overthrown, mind you... The next incoming government might see that as void, 'not in the best interests of Ukraine', etc... and not honor it.
 
2014-02-27 09:26:28 AM  
Subby is right. It's a repeat of 1783.
 
2014-02-27 09:29:44 AM  
I know it's an autonomous republic and I have no idea what the deal with them leaving would be or if the can legally just leave, but the problem I see is if all of southern Ukraine wants to leave I don't see the Ukrainians letting that happen.

They are the Auntonomous Republic of Crimea and they do have their own Parliament. My understanding is that they do have more rights than Ukrainian oblasts, like enacting laws etc but they can't just say they want to leave Ukraine.  Think more along the lines of state or provincial rights, with the oblasts having similar powers as a municipality (although they are structured differently).

There are also 21 republics within Russia now (like Dagestan).  I wonder if Putin would move to recognize a republic in Ukraine wanting to separate but ignore the same issue within Russia (who am I kidding, of course he would)
 
2014-02-27 09:29:57 AM  

that1guy77: danzak: Marcus Aurelius: spawn73: That's a long post, with a lot of statements made as facts, that will of course be proven completely wrong over the next few days/weeks.

Hope that doesn't bother you to much. :)

I agree with him that Putin will not surrender Sevastopol.  No way that happens.  So something has to give.

He doesn't have to.  They have a lease for the naval base until like 2025 or something.  I don't see any threat to that.

Under the regime that was overthrown, mind you... The next incoming government might see that as void, 'not in the best interests of Ukraine', etc... and not honor it.


That only works if the host country has the ability to throw out the guest.  Ever wonder how many times Castro told us to GTFO of Gitmo?
 
2014-02-27 09:30:11 AM  

danzak: spawn73: danzak:

Also, the Crimean Tartars do not want to join Russia and they're claim to the Crimea is much stronger than the Russians. That's who is fighting with the separatists now.

They only make up about 10% of the population.

AFAIK they have no reason to want to be a part of Ukraine either than it being the better of the two choices.

I meant historically.  They've been there since the Middle Ages.  Stalin threw them out, they started to come back after the USSR fell apart


Yeah, but Crimea didn't become a part of Ukraine till 1954. So I don't see why they would be particular about Ukraine either, in a historical context.
 
2014-02-27 09:34:37 AM  

Marcus Aurelius: danzak: They have a lease for the naval base until like 2025 or something

Oh, that long.  That's like, what, another 11 years.  I'm sure that will ease Putin's fevered mind.


sorry, it was an extra 25 years (from the original agreement running out in 2017).  So, they're locked in until 2042 at least.

Russia is expanding its base in Novorossiysk as preparation and to accommodate upgrades to the Black Sea fleet
 
2014-02-27 09:35:40 AM  

spawn73: danzak: spawn73: danzak:

Also, the Crimean Tartars do not want to join Russia and they're claim to the Crimea is much stronger than the Russians. That's who is fighting with the separatists now.

They only make up about 10% of the population.

AFAIK they have no reason to want to be a part of Ukraine either than it being the better of the two choices.

I meant historically.  They've been there since the Middle Ages.  Stalin threw them out, they started to come back after the USSR fell apart

Yeah, but Crimea didn't become a part of Ukraine till 1954. So I don't see why they would be particular about Ukraine either, in a historical context.


You were right with your second point above.  They hate the Russians more
 
2014-02-27 09:36:40 AM  

Born_Again_Bavarian: that1guy77: danzak: Marcus Aurelius: spawn73: That's a long post, with a lot of statements made as facts, that will of course be proven completely wrong over the next few days/weeks.

Hope that doesn't bother you to much. :)

I agree with him that Putin will not surrender Sevastopol.  No way that happens.  So something has to give.

He doesn't have to.  They have a lease for the naval base until like 2025 or something.  I don't see any threat to that.

Under the regime that was overthrown, mind you... The next incoming government might see that as void, 'not in the best interests of Ukraine', etc... and not honor it.

That only works if the host country has the ability to throw out the guest.  Ever wonder how many times Castro told us to GTFO of Gitmo?


You realize you're comparing apples with oranges, right? Either way, my opinions reflect various possibilities, not concrete predictions of the future. But I see you're trying damn hard to win against someone who isn't in competition with your pre-set beliefs. I'll also let you with your große Weisheit take the win if you want.
 
2014-02-27 09:37:42 AM  
This is exactly what happens when you start passing "laws" removing Russian as an official language.  Both the pro-EU faction and the pro-Russian faction are being led to the slaughter by right nationalism.  Let's hope that a bunch of people don't have to die in a civil war to learn that nationalism is bad....
 
2014-02-27 09:42:06 AM  

that1guy77: Marcus Aurelius: that1guy77: I'm thinking worst-case scenario: Invasion... but am, of course, hoping for the best. Reason being: In addition to the previously mentioned, Russia learned from their previous 2008 adventure in Georgia that the western powers will sit idly -- whoever really started it is besides the point

There is the small matter of exactly how we could do anything militarily.  NATO could do it by invading Poland first, I suppose, but that presents its own problems.  An amphibious invasion at Sevastopol would start a shooting war with Russia.  And nobody in the region is eager to see a foreign army roll over their soil.

So direct military intervention is off the table.

If you don't mind... Could you please explain why on earth would NATO invade itself? Besides, we're dealing with opinions, and 'no invasion' just happens to be yours. I'm not passing mine of as fact.


We'd just be keeping Putin off balance, man. He'd never expect NATO to invade one of its own members.

You'd never want to fight a guy who was willing to punch himself in the face, right? All NATO has to do is attack Poland or Latvia or Hungary or whatever and Putin will be like "holy shiat, they crazy! I ain't messing with them!"
 
2014-02-27 09:43:00 AM  
We're gonna need a lighter brigade.
 
2014-02-27 09:43:12 AM  
Under the regime that was overthrown, mind you... The next incoming government might see that as void, 'not in the best interests of Ukraine', etc... and not honor it.

Granted, it's not a popular agreement in Ukraine (the lease was extended by Yushchenko, the winner of the Orange Revolution) but I can't see them cancelling it now.  They are paid for the use of the port by gas discounts (I think) which they still desperately need as the country is basically broke. What I can see threatening this arrangement is if Russia decides to "punish" Ukraine by raising gas prices and the Ukrainians then trying to use the port agreements as leverage against that.  That may give Putin the opening he needs to claim that Russian military forces are under threat.
But for now, I don't see new gov't in Ukraine rattling their sabres,  There's enough shiat to deal with without antagonizing Putin.
 
2014-02-27 09:47:22 AM  

danzak: Marcus Aurelius: danzak: They have a lease for the naval base until like 2025 or something

Oh, that long.  That's like, what, another 11 years.  I'm sure that will ease Putin's fevered mind.

sorry, it was an extra 25 years (from the original agreement running out in 2017).  So, they're locked in until 2042 at least.

Russia is expanding its base in Novorossiysk as preparation and to accommodate upgrades to the Black Sea fleet


I always wondered how well those lease agreements would stand up to an evenly matched military conflict.  We just might find out.
 
2014-02-27 09:48:23 AM  

FarkedOver: This is exactly what happens when you start passing "laws" removing Russian as an official language.  Both the pro-EU faction and the pro-Russian faction are being led to the slaughter by right nationalism.  Let's hope that a bunch of people don't have to die in a civil war to learn that nationalism is bad....


They got rid of a law that allowed individual regions to make additional official languages within the region.


"The Ukrainian Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) abolished the 2012 law "On State Language Policy" the day after it voted to dismiss President Viktor Yanukovich. The law allowed the country's regions to use more official languages in addition to Ukrainian if they were spoken by over 10 percent of the local population. Thirteen out of Ukraine's 27 regions, primarily in Eastern Ukraine, then adopted Russian as a second official language. Two Western regions introduced Romanian and Hungarian as official languages. "
http://rt.com/news/minority-language-law-ukraine-035/
 
2014-02-27 09:48:40 AM  

FlashHarry: one of my all-time favorite literary characters


I have every one of his books, including "The Complete MacAuslan".

Women hate him for some reason.  Can you imagine?
 
2014-02-27 09:50:03 AM  

spawn73: They only make up about 10% of the population.


Must be the tartar control toothpaste they use.
 
2014-02-27 09:50:10 AM  

Debeo Summa Credo: that1guy77: Marcus Aurelius: that1guy77: I'm thinking worst-case scenario: Invasion... but am, of course, hoping for the best. Reason being: In addition to the previously mentioned, Russia learned from their previous 2008 adventure in Georgia that the western powers will sit idly -- whoever really started it is besides the point

There is the small matter of exactly how we could do anything militarily.  NATO could do it by invading Poland first, I suppose, but that presents its own problems.  An amphibious invasion at Sevastopol would start a shooting war with Russia.  And nobody in the region is eager to see a foreign army roll over their soil.

So direct military intervention is off the table.

If you don't mind... Could you please explain why on earth would NATO invade itself? Besides, we're dealing with opinions, and 'no invasion' just happens to be yours. I'm not passing mine of as fact.

We'd just be keeping Putin off balance, man. He'd never expect NATO to invade one of its own members.

You'd never want to fight a guy who was willing to punch himself in the face, right? All NATO has to do is attack Poland or Latvia or Hungary or whatever and Putin will be like "holy shiat, they crazy! I ain't messing with them!"


Better yet, just lift tiny Luxembourg out of the ground with a shovel and hurl it on Russian territory -- preferrably on Putin's front lawn. It's kind of like the horsehead-in-bed effect.
 
2014-02-27 09:51:00 AM  

Thunderpipes: ArtosRC: Thunderpipes: Gee, let's gut the military, after all, we will never need it......

Keep your shilling out of this thread. Deep throat the Minuteman inventory elsewhere, chickenhawk.

Blah blah blah, that is what you say.

How many times are we going to ease up, let bad people get stronger? We have the biggest pussy in the history of the world leading the country, and his supporters are even bigger pussies. This will not end well. Another Cold war.


Funny, didn't know that you were president, chickenhawk...
 
2014-02-27 09:51:48 AM  
danzak:

I know you have your ear to the ground on the situation over there.  Is there a bill pending that would ban Russian media?
 
2014-02-27 09:55:42 AM  
Nothing that I've seen.  I'll check it out though
 
2014-02-27 09:57:46 AM  

danzak: Nothing that I've seen.  I'll check it out though


I've heard rumor, rumbling and conjecture of it.  I haven't seen anything concrete.
 
2014-02-27 09:59:29 AM  

FarkedOver: danzak:

I know you have your ear to the ground on the situation over there.  Is there a bill pending that would ban Russian media?


That is what the Russian Foreign Minister is claiming. I'll try to find out if there is actually a bill being introduced in the Verkhovna Rada
 
2014-02-27 10:00:54 AM  

danzak: FarkedOver: danzak:

I know you have your ear to the ground on the situation over there.  Is there a bill pending that would ban Russian media?

That is what the Russian Foreign Minister is claiming. I'll try to find out if there is actually a bill being introduced in the Verkhovna Rada


He's probably just blowing something out of proportion.
 
2014-02-27 10:04:21 AM  

tricycleracer: We're gonna need a lighter brigade.


Well, it worked so well the first time didn't it? :)
 
2014-02-27 10:06:15 AM  
i.imgur.com
 
2014-02-27 10:06:38 AM  

Ring of Fire: spawn73: Ring of Fire: I know we had naval assets in the Black Sea for the Olympics. Anyone know if they are still there or if they've left?
Also what is the Turks take on this whole deal. Would they allow NATO ships into the Black Sea.

Why would NATO be involved in this? No one except complete idiots thinks this situation involves NATO or USA in any way or form.

But yeah, I am pretty sure a NATO member like Turkey doesn't have a problem with letting its own farking coalition enter the black sea.

Yes I know turkey is in NATO I just forgot for a second need more coffe see above.

I'm not saying that NATO should be involved but if the had to get to involved it would be nice to know we can get in there. Also a few ships sitting in the Black Sea could be a good detergent to russian involvement.
The last thing I want is NATO involvement. I fully expect at least Crimea to leave Ukraine. I know it's an autonomous republic and I have no idea what the deal with them leaving would be or if the can legally just leave, but the problem I see is if all of southern Ukraine wants to leave I don't see the Ukrainians letting that happen.
They won't want to let Odessa go and become a landlocked country.
Russian expansion would put the Eastern European NATO members on edge to say the least so it's not a bad idea to have some plan of action even if it's a worse case scenario.


Yeah, thinking about it from Ukraines viewpoint, its more of their problem than Russias, either way.

Now, the interesting port in question in Sevastopol, not Odessa, that's where both the Ukrainian and Russian fleet is stationed. Since Russia has a lease on it till 2042, I don't really think they care either way, much.

When we're talking about Crimea potentially leaving, I think we're talking about the current Crimea, ie. the blob that sticks out beneath Ukraine. The Odessa region would remain Ukrainian, being that it is 62% Ukrainian (according to Wiki). That's still the most significant warm water port for Ukraine, so they'd be good.
 
2014-02-27 10:10:39 AM  
Some one had blunder'd:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

Hopefully not to be repeated.
 
2014-02-27 10:13:49 AM  
img.photobucket.com
 
2014-02-27 10:26:55 AM  
Calm down, everyone, sheesh. It's not WW3 yet. It's just a bunch of protesters taking over government buildings.

Ukraine isn't falling apart yet, although if the shiat with "forbidding Russian" and other nationalist nonsense will continue, it just may happen.

Russia is not interested either in Ukraine or Crimea as part of Russia, considering how much money (which Russia doesn't have) it will cost. Even the relatively small Crimea is a money hole, although it could be a matter of face, in which case the Russia will grind its teeth and take it.

Odessa is not going to leave Ukraine; it's pretty much declared itself "neutral" and will join whoever the "winner" will be. With the exception of Crimea, nobody, not even Eastern Ukraine, want to be a part of Russia; they all want to move towards Europe, generally, simplisticly speaking.

As for Odessa region being 62% Ukrainian, please, please do not confuse ethnicity with language. I guess nearly 100% of Odessa are speaking Russian, even if large part of them self-identify as Ukrainian. My friend in Odessa, for example, self-identify as Ukrainian, but speaks Russian.

The majority of Odessa's internet shops don't even have Ukrainian language version, because there is not enough demand to justify the expenses.

Nevertheless, Odessa is not leaving Ukraine and not joining Russia; unless _really_ pushed by the nationalists in the west. Hopefully won't happen.

Even Crimea is divided - it has, for example, a relatively large population of muslim Tatars, who have their own Tatar Parliament (inside the Crimea) and who would prefer to remain part of Ukraine, thankyouverymuch.

The most of the problems of Ukraine in close future are going to be economical and nationalistic, rather than "who invade whom".
 
2014-02-27 10:30:56 AM  
Breaking news in Danish media is that Yanukovych transferred 37 billion dollars given to Ukraine as credit, to unknown foreign accounts at some point during his presidency. Perhaps just before he stepped down?

So basicly Ukraine is broke right now, and will need monetary assistance within days even.
 
2014-02-27 10:40:14 AM  

spawn73: Breaking news in Danish media is that Yanukovych transferred 37 billion dollars given to Ukraine as credit, to unknown foreign accounts at some point during his presidency. Perhaps just before he stepped down?


That's, I think, a grand total of the money stolen. However, by rumors, a third of Ukrainian banking system is owned/controlled by people, who may be considered a part of corrupt Yanukovich's clique; of course they are not waiting till somebody will come to take their banks from them, but are moving, or may be already moved the money, theirs and all the deposits, offshore. Since the deposits are insured by Ukrainian government, it's going to be an interesting situation, when people who made the deposits will come for their money.

So basicly Ukraine is broke right now, and will need monetary assistance within days even.

Yep. Not because Yanukovich personally transferred all the money, but, first of all, the whole "taking aid from Putin in exchange for closer ties" happened, among other things, because Ukraine was already dangerously close to bankrupt, and because when shiat like this happens, first thing that disappears is money.

And nobody is going to give Ukraine billions of dollars in aid. There is no money even to run new elections.
 
2014-02-27 10:42:56 AM  

Thunderpipes: Gee, let's gut the military, after all, we will never need it......


1. "gut" != a 10% cut
2. We spend almost as much on our military as the other 200ish countries on the planet do-combined.  This includes allies like Great Britain and France.
3. Do you really want to get into a shooting war with the Russians over the Ukraine?
4. In short, stop being stupid.
 
2014-02-27 10:43:27 AM  

spawn73: Ring of Fire: I know we had naval assets in the Black Sea for the Olympics. Anyone know if they are still there or if they've left?
Also what is the Turks take on this whole deal. Would they allow NATO ships into the Black Sea.

Why would NATO be involved in this? No one except complete idiots thinks this situation involves NATO or USA in any way or form.

But yeah, I am pretty sure a NATO member like Turkey doesn't have a problem with letting its own farking coalition enter the black sea.


So, if Russia invaded Turkey from the rear, would Greece help?
 
2014-02-27 10:46:04 AM  

that1guy77: ColonelCathcart: that1guy77: The Ukraine is to Russia what Syria is to Iran and they'll do everything to hold on to it. Geographically and strategically, Ukraine was the core of the former USSR, and as far as Putin is concerned, the nation isn't up for discussion or negotiation. To Putin, as it's part of Russia. Putin will do whatever it takes to ensure Ukraine belongs to him. Putin has options should he decide on intervention. He could provide military support to Yanukovich, raise energy prices, levy Ukrainian exports into Russia, or impose any number of economic measures designed to send a shot across the bow of the pro-West protesters. But getting tough with Ukraine right now is risky as it would only inflame anti-Russian sentiment.

I'm thinking worst-case scenario: Invasion... but am, of course, hoping for the best. Reason being: In addition to the previously mentioned, Russia learned from their previous 2008 adventure in Georgia that the western powers will sit idly -- whoever really started it is besides the point. The Ukraine, like Georgia, is not a NATO member, and therefore, an attack on this one is not an attack on all. I can' t see how Russia would stand by idly and allow for this to happen. It's been repeated over and over again from military leaders that this won't be allowed to transpire. One such example: Russia warns US on Ukraine, says Moscow could act ...

Whatever happens, the longer the protests continue and the shakier the Yanukovich government becomes, as we're seeing right now, the more anxious Putin will grow -- and an anxious Putin is a very dangerous Putin.


It is no longer a Yanukovich Government. He has been expelled from his party:
Yanukovych impeachment - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_of_Regions#Yanukovych_impeachment

On 22 February 2014, during the "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_of_Regions#cite_note-Yanuousted-97 ">[97] Out of the 38 PoR deputies present, 36 voted in favour of ousting Yanukovich while 2 did not take par ...


Sometimes it takes even less to lose political loyalty. For example, in the US just the allegation that  "ZOMG!! he did _______"

So I'll give you that argument!
 
2014-02-27 10:51:34 AM  

lifeboat: spawn73: Ring of Fire: I know we had naval assets in the Black Sea for the Olympics. Anyone know if they are still there or if they've left?
Also what is the Turks take on this whole deal. Would they allow NATO ships into the Black Sea.

Why would NATO be involved in this? No one except complete idiots thinks this situation involves NATO or USA in any way or form.

But yeah, I am pretty sure a NATO member like Turkey doesn't have a problem with letting its own farking coalition enter the black sea.

So, if Russia invaded Turkey from the rear, would Greece help?


Turkey and Greece hate each other due to Cyprus.  They are both members of NATO, so, in theory, they should.  In practice, it's doubtful that such would occur (or would be needed).
 
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