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(SB Nation)   This man used science to determine that it is actually true that you could have drafted better than Matt Millen by throwing darts at a list of names. Among other interesting things   (sbnation.com) divider line 29
    More: Amusing, NFL, NFL Draft, Warren Sapp, bedrock, Shawne Merriman, Darren Sproles, statistical model, Brady Quinn  
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1206 clicks; posted to Sports » on 26 Feb 2014 at 8:41 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



29 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2014-02-26 08:43:23 AM  
You mean a sport that makes billions of dollars every year in profit no matter how terribly it is managed might breed an executive base that is less inclined to make smarter decisions on how it spends its money?
 
2014-02-26 09:02:11 AM  
Interesting article, but not sure how much better you can expect teams to be at drafting.  There is always a factor of risk when going from one level of competition to the next.  You see the same thing in every sport's scouting and it's usually not that the coaches or managers are idiots, it's because there are a ton of variables that go into succeeding at the highest level and you can't account for all of them from seeing them at lower levels of competition.  Some like Millen are really terrible, but with the huge amount of injuries in the NFL I'd imagine there's a lot of luck based variance in most teams numbers.
 
2014-02-26 09:04:14 AM  
My cat could have drafted better than Matt Millen, and he's been dead for ten years.

/Bitter Lions fan.
//Which is probably redundant, now that I think about it.
 
2014-02-26 09:04:15 AM  
Did the obvious tag have a really great combine and go number one overall leaving the amusing tag as the best player available on many people's boards?

/Draft buzzwords
//LOUD NOISES
///Both seem to be about as accurate
 
2014-02-26 09:11:27 AM  

Farnn: Interesting article, but not sure how much better you can expect teams to be at drafting.  There is always a factor of risk when going from one level of competition to the next.  You see the same thing in every sport's scouting and it's usually not that the coaches or managers are idiots, it's because there are a ton of variables that go into succeeding at the highest level and you can't account for all of them from seeing them at lower levels of competition.  Some like Millen are really terrible, but with the huge amount of injuries in the NFL I'd imagine there's a lot of luck based variance in most teams numbers.


All that said, there are still plenty of relatively simple issues that current managers of many teams struggle to grasp. Like not drafting players at a position which you already have plenty of depth and talent. And not drafting kickers. And, in non-draft terms, understanding the salary cap.

/Seriously, never draft a kicker
//Even in the seventh round
 
2014-02-26 10:01:00 AM  
But on the plus side,  Jeff Ireland is gone!

/Sorry,  have to put this in any GM/drafting thread.
 
2014-02-26 10:02:16 AM  
I find it very amusing it listed Dallas as the fourth best drafting team.  That really struck me as odd, considering how terrible their draft classes have generally been considered, and how may holes they have every year.

Then I realized the problem isn't that they draft terrible players more often than other teams, they just draft all of the wrong positions for what they need.
 
2014-02-26 10:04:14 AM  
Players getting drafted by a team with a solid coaching staff and a core group of vets who don't mind teaching the young guys a thing or two have a much better chance of thriving in the NFL than guys drafted by poorly run teams that have a bunch of me first players already on the roster. Also you can't discount motivation being a factor. Some guys just come out swinging and work their butts off when they get drafted later than they think they should have been drafted.
 
2014-02-26 10:14:06 AM  

Khellendros: I find it very amusing it listed Dallas as the fourth best drafting team.  That really struck me as odd, considering how terrible their draft classes have generally been considered, and how may holes they have every year.

Then I realized the problem isn't that they draft terrible players more often than other teams, they just draft all of the wrong positions for what they need.


seems like every year the Cowboys are drafting in panic mode by the time it gets to their draft pick, that's an organization that has zero confidence in anything they do
 
2014-02-26 10:38:40 AM  

AdamK: seems like every year the Cowboys are drafting in panic mode by the time it gets to their draft pick, that's an organization that has zero confidence in anything they do


Locally, the story generally goes like this - the brains of the organization decide on draft priority positions, and puts together a list of top prospects assumed to be there in each round.  A day before the draft, Jerry walks in, decides he likes a few specific players in skill positions, and pisses on what his brain trust tells him.  They then scramble to draft who Jerry demands while on the clock.  So in general, yes, you're right.  They panic because they don't have faith in their processes beforehand that should dictate their priorities based on need.

And that's how you end up where we are today.  We keep drafting receivers, linebackers, and corners, when we need to create a stable line on both sides of the ball.  Jerry seems to have something against drafting linemen and ends, even when the team desperately needs it.  We had three starters this season that weren't even in the league last year.  Absolutely no one to fill in in case of injury, and most of our starters would have been third string or practice squad guys on most any playoff team.

And now the local buzz is that Jerry would consider trading up to get Manziel or one of the other QBs, because Romo is on the downside of the age curve.  Never mind that we can't protect a quarterback if our lives depended on it, and we can't stop simple draw plays from gaining 6 yards routinely, and trading up would likely kill 2 - 3 years of first and second round picks.  Nope, we need the new arm!
 
2014-02-26 10:46:43 AM  

Khellendros: Locally, the story generally goes like this - the brains of the organization decide on draft priority positions, and puts together a list of top prospects assumed to be there in each round. A day before the draft, Jerry walks in, decides he likes a few specific players in skill positions, and pisses on what his brain trust tells him. They then scramble to draft who Jerry demands while on the clock. So in general, yes, you're right. They panic because they don't have faith in their processes beforehand that should dictate their priorities based on need.


Wait, are we talking about Al Davis or Jerry Jones?
 
2014-02-26 10:50:43 AM  

Lost Thought 00: Farnn: Interesting article, but not sure how much better you can expect teams to be at drafting.  There is always a factor of risk when going from one level of competition to the next.  You see the same thing in every sport's scouting and it's usually not that the coaches or managers are idiots, it's because there are a ton of variables that go into succeeding at the highest level and you can't account for all of them from seeing them at lower levels of competition.  Some like Millen are really terrible, but with the huge amount of injuries in the NFL I'd imagine there's a lot of luck based variance in most teams numbers.

All that said, there are still plenty of relatively simple issues that current managers of many teams struggle to grasp. Like not drafting players at a position which you already have plenty of depth and talent. And not drafting kickers. And, in non-draft terms, understanding the salary cap.

/Seriously, never draft a kicker
//Even in the seventh round


I agree 100%, good example an of undrafted kicker..

upload.wikimedia.org
 
2014-02-26 11:03:52 AM  
I just want to know if that same man can use science to understand the market for Jon's Sandwich Shop
 
2014-02-26 11:04:08 AM  
I'm so happy this was green lit as I failed yesterday. Everything Jon bois has done this year has been greatness. If you like this article, please look up his breaking madden series, and his twitter account is very much worth a follow.
 
2014-02-26 11:07:59 AM  
FIRE MILLEN
 
2014-02-26 11:10:04 AM  

thecpt: Everything Jon bois has done this year has been greatness. If you like this article, please look up his breaking madden series,


CLARENCE BEEFTANK
 
2014-02-26 11:20:19 AM  

GQueue: thecpt: Everything Jon bois has done this year has been greatness. If you like this article, please look up his breaking madden series,

CLARENCE BEEFTANK


Never count out Touchdown Tom.
 
2014-02-26 11:36:48 AM  

mjones73: Lost Thought 00: Farnn: Interesting article, but not sure how much better you can expect teams to be at drafting.  There is always a factor of risk when going from one level of competition to the next.  You see the same thing in every sport's scouting and it's usually not that the coaches or managers are idiots, it's because there are a ton of variables that go into succeeding at the highest level and you can't account for all of them from seeing them at lower levels of competition.  Some like Millen are really terrible, but with the huge amount of injuries in the NFL I'd imagine there's a lot of luck based variance in most teams numbers.

All that said, there are still plenty of relatively simple issues that current managers of many teams struggle to grasp. Like not drafting players at a position which you already have plenty of depth and talent. And not drafting kickers. And, in non-draft terms, understanding the salary cap.

/Seriously, never draft a kicker
//Even in the seventh round

I agree 100%, good example an of undrafted kicker..

[upload.wikimedia.org image 749x1123]


Of the top 25 scorers in NFL history, at least 12 were undrafted and I can't find draft info on another 5, leading me to believe they were undrafted.
 
2014-02-26 11:38:12 AM  

Khellendros: I find it very amusing it listed Dallas as the fourth best drafting team.  That really struck me as odd, considering how terrible their draft classes have generally been considered, and how may holes they have every year.

Then I realized the problem isn't that they draft terrible players more often than other teams, they just draft all of the wrong positions for what they need.


He used info from 04-08, since it gave a better idea of how picks panned out.

/Does Jon's Sandwich Shop cater?
//BEEFTANK
///a third slashy for Milks.
 
2014-02-26 11:39:52 AM  
But yet ESPN hired him for him expert opinion and they expect people to listen. Everyone I know turns the channel when he is on the panel.
 
2014-02-26 11:54:33 AM  

MtnByker: But yet ESPN hired him for him expert opinion and they expect people to listen. Everyone I know turns the channel when he is on the panel.


Herm Edwards too.

/big part why I don't watch that channel anymore.
 
2014-02-26 12:37:42 PM  

Lost Thought 00: Like not drafting players at a position which you already have plenty of depth and talent.


I'm not always opposed to this. I've always said that Millen's problem wasn't drafting three wide receivers; his problem was drafting three players who weren't very good. If Rogers, Williams and Williams had lived up to their draft status, they would have created matchup nightmares for every opponent in the league and would have even made Joey Harrington look good.

And even if a position doesn't seem like a need now, it might be in the near future. If a player is clearly superior to everyone else on the board -- admittedly a rare situation outside of the first few picks -- you have to take him (example: Packers, Aaron Rodgers). You can also try to extract a huge premium in a trade (example: Rams, Robert Griffin III), but you won't always find a taker.
 
2014-02-26 12:56:32 PM  
MtnByker: But yet ESPN hired him for him expert opinion and they expect people to listen. Everyone I know turns the channel when he is on the panel.

The NFL channel keeps trotting him out as an expert on their "top ten lists" of greatest players, too. And every time they do I go WTF? Literally thousands of credible players available and you chose Mr "I don't know my ass from my elbow when it comes to evaluating talent, and proved it for seven years"? Apparently to some folks his time as GM in Detroit never happened.
 
2014-02-26 02:43:54 PM  
It's not easy to predict how well a college player will perform in the NFL.

I just watched a Top 10 on NFL Network about the best performances of Heisman Trophy winners after they go to the NFL. A good portion of show was about Heisman winners that flopped in the NF:

Just from that one show it's clear that great college performances don't always transfer to the NFL with regularity.
 
2014-02-26 03:23:40 PM  
In terms of GM incompetence, blind dartboards have nothing on a Potato vs Dave Nonis.
 
2014-02-26 07:24:45 PM  

ristst: It's not easy to predict how well a college player will perform in the NFL.

I just watched a Top 10 on NFL Network about the best performances of Heisman Trophy winners after they go to the NFL. A good portion of show was about Heisman winners that flopped in the NF:

Just from that one show it's clear that great college performances don't always transfer to the NFL with regularity.


It's not easy, but I'm not sure the Heisman busts mean anything.  CFB is different from the NFL.  The Heisman usually goes to one of the five or so most exciting players (as determined by...something) who manages to not shiat the bed during the season.  Usually the biggest-name offensive player from the best team.  Lots of them played in gimmicky offenses and were surrounded by teammates who were much more talented than most of their opponents (Tebow being the obvious example).
 
2014-02-26 08:06:32 PM  

RickyWilliams'sBong: ristst: It's not easy to predict how well a college player will perform in the NFL.

I just watched a Top 10 on NFL Network about the best performances of Heisman Trophy winners after they go to the NFL. A good portion of show was about Heisman winners that flopped in the NF:

Just from that one show it's clear that great college performances don't always transfer to the NFL with regularity.

It's not easy, but I'm not sure the Heisman busts mean anything.  CFB is different from the NFL.  The Heisman usually goes to one of the five or so most exciting players (as determined by...something) who manages to not shiat the bed during the season.  Usually the biggest-name offensive player from the best team.  Lots of them played in gimmicky offenses and were surrounded by teammates who were much more talented than most of their opponents (Tebow being the obvious example).


a lot of success (and failure) at the college level comes from coaches and systems so yeah it's hard to evaluate a guy completely independent of what their school did, and then you've got agents marketing the shiat out of pro-prospects so they end up in the 1st round
 
2014-02-26 08:47:03 PM  

browneye: My cat could have drafted better than Matt Millen, and he's been dead for ten years.

/Bitter Lions fan.
//Which is probably redundant, now that I think about it.


... and we're likely going to take a Wide Receiver in the 1st round. Again.

/*cries*
//Go Lions!
 
Oak
2014-02-26 10:30:25 PM  
Left unanswered: how well would a random drafter have done after throwing darts at Matt Millen?
 
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