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(Investors Business Daily)   Farmers' Alamac forecasting methodology beats the Global Warming Nutjobs ... again   (news.investors.com ) divider line
    More: Amusing, global warming, Farmers' Almanac, almanacs, predictions, methodology, Climate Prediction Center, polar vortexes, In Time  
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2654 clicks; posted to Geek » on 24 Feb 2014 at 11:11 AM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-02-24 10:20:17 AM  
Ooh, an Al Gore joke at the end. Timely.
 
2014-02-24 10:30:10 AM  
My broken clock will be showing the correct time in exactly 3... 2... 1.... there it is.
 
2014-02-24 10:32:26 AM  
Man who can't tell difference between weather and climate still denying existence of warming. Film at 11.
 
2014-02-24 10:43:50 AM  
You hear that everybody? There's no climate change.

/Done. Book it.
//we have Investors opinion now and that settles it
 
2014-02-24 10:50:04 AM  
I followed that thing for a few years ... and no. It predicted squat.
 
2014-02-24 10:55:55 AM  

Nadie_AZ: It predicted squat.


Which is what you got so... success?
 
2014-02-24 10:55:56 AM  

Nadie_AZ: I followed that thing for a few years ... and no. It predicted squat.


It's probably more on target than Inventor's stock picks, so they're mistaking it for an oracle.
 
2014-02-24 11:13:22 AM  
How many times are we going to anti-AGW articles a week on Fark? This is the 3rd or 4th in 2 weeks, and all of them are bullshiat.

Oh a note, the Almanac predicts weather, AGW predicts CLIMATE. Two very different things.
 
2014-02-24 11:17:57 AM  

phimuskapsi: How many times are we going to anti-AGW articles a week on Fark? This is the 3rd or 4th in 2 weeks, and all of them are bullshiat.

Oh a note, the Almanac predicts weather, AGW predicts CLIMATE. Two very different things.


B$ =n Click$
 
2014-02-24 11:20:21 AM  

phimuskapsi: How many times are we going to anti-AGW articles a week on Fark? This is the 3rd or 4th in 2 weeks, and all of them are bullshiat.

Oh a note, the Almanac predicts weather, AGW predicts CLIMATE. Two very different things.


All about the page views/clicks. The more controversial the topic or trolltastic the headline, the more farkers will comment in the thread and/or read the article, driving ad/sponsored link revenues higher. Simple as that.
 
2014-02-24 11:21:48 AM  

Cymbal: phimuskapsi: How many times are we going to anti-AGW articles a week on Fark? This is the 3rd or 4th in 2 weeks, and all of them are bullshiat.

Oh a note, the Almanac predicts weather, AGW predicts CLIMATE. Two very different things.

All about the page views/clicks. The more controversial the topic or trolltastic the headline, the more farkers will comment in the thread and/or read the article, driving ad/sponsored link revenues higher. Simple as that.


I guess everyone has their masters eh?
 
2014-02-24 11:24:03 AM  
Have deniers ever actually made an assertion that was relevant for more than a single year?  Ever?  Like can you go to some denier website from 5-10 years ago, and pull up a prediction that was true?  Because... You know... 90s IPCC predictions "most likely case" and all that.
 
2014-02-24 11:25:15 AM  
Isn't this the same site that brought us the stunning expose' on how if Steven Hawking lived under socialized medicine, then he'd be dead by now?
 
2014-02-24 11:30:52 AM  
chscomet.org

Someone should ask California how they have enjoyed their cold and wet winter this year, or how the Great Lakes and Northeast have enjoyed their mild winter.
 
2014-02-24 11:34:30 AM  

dennysgod: [chscomet.org image 755x450]

Someone should ask California how they have enjoyed their cold and wet winter this year, or how the Great Lakes and Northeast have enjoyed their mild winter.


Please, don't you know these things can't be perfect, like all climate change related predictions must be in order to count(and even if they are, they still don't count, because screw evidence).
 
2014-02-24 11:35:48 AM  
The big picture.

I need to get a better copy of this.

i239.photobucket.com
 
2014-02-24 11:36:37 AM  
Is there some way I can go BEYOND simply turning off ads?  Something where I can cost them money any time I regrettably click on this click-bait bullshiat?
 
2014-02-24 11:36:57 AM  
 
2014-02-24 11:37:39 AM  
sciencebasedlife.files.wordpress.com
 
2014-02-24 11:37:39 AM  

DrKillPatient: The big picture.

I need to get a better copy of this.

[i239.photobucket.com image 696x435]


Ha, look at all those "no data" gray sections, clearly NASA is omitting the dark blue spots to manipulate us.
I seriously had people make this argument to me.
 
2014-02-24 11:38:32 AM  

LowbrowDeluxe: Is there some way I can go BEYOND simply turning off ads?  Something where I can cost them money any time I regrettably click on this click-bait bullshiat?


Yeah, mail them dynamite.
 
2014-02-24 11:41:53 AM  

dennysgod: chscomet.org


Wow

Such science

So color
 
2014-02-24 11:46:12 AM  

DrKillPatient: The big picture.

I need to get a better copy of this.

[i239.photobucket.com image 696x435]


See that! It's colder than ever in the Mid-West, where  real Americans come from.  NOTHING ELSE IN THE WORLD MATTERS. Therefore, global warming is false.
 
2014-02-24 11:48:46 AM  
Can't wait for the graphs...
 
2014-02-24 11:50:16 AM  

DrKillPatient: The big picture.

I need to get a better copy of this.

[i239.photobucket.com image 696x435]


www.ncdc.noaa.gov

Link to NOAA: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/20140 1.gif
 
2014-02-24 11:50:49 AM  

CygnusDarius: Can't wait for the graphs...


As opposed to what?
 
2014-02-24 11:53:25 AM  

ikanreed: CygnusDarius: Can't wait for the graphs...

As opposed to what?


Pictures of the once sub-tropically bound bikini model migrating north with the warmer temperatures?
 
2014-02-24 11:55:28 AM  
You have to like the way they began the piece with the warning Bad Science. That sums up the article nicely.
 
2014-02-24 11:55:32 AM  
It's cold where I live right now. Scientists don't know jack.
 
2014-02-24 11:56:02 AM  
It claims an 80% accuracy rate, surely better than those who obsess over fossil fuels and CO2.

1. How do they measure "accuracy rate"?
2. Is the 80% claim verifiable by that measure?
2. What's the accuracy rate of "those who obsess over fossil fuels and CO2" by that measure?
 
2014-02-24 11:57:58 AM  

tzzhc4: DrKillPatient: The big picture.

I need to get a better copy of this.

[i239.photobucket.com image 696x435]

[www.ncdc.noaa.gov image 850x656]

Link to NOAA: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/20140 1.gif


Thanks!

CO2 levels another good one.

i239.photobucket.com
 
2014-02-24 11:58:05 AM  

DarnoKonrad: ikanreed: CygnusDarius: Can't wait for the graphs...

As opposed to what?

Pictures of the once sub-tropically bound bikini model migrating north with the warmer temperatures?


Bikini models live in Miami. No matter how warm it gets, they're never going to move to Kansas.
 
2014-02-24 12:02:53 PM  

Prophet of Loss: [img: which makes more sense?]

I have a good friend who's a denier and he says that 99% of the scientists are in on it as well as 100% of everyone everywhere who records a temperature. So when he sees a map of temperatures from around the country he assumes that every single temperature is a lie and part of the conspiracy.

Then he starts talking about end of times prophecies in the Bible.

That's the kind of derp I'm up against.

/it's very hard to stay friends with him sometimes. But he's been my best friend for over 20 years. I just have to shake my head and ignore it as best I can.
 
2014-02-24 12:07:26 PM  
Also, there was this little gem:

The winter has stayed cold in 2014, and snowfall and snow cover are way above average. USA Today reported on Feb. 14 that there was snow on the ground in part of every state except Florida. That includes Hawaii.

Are they talking about Mauna Kea? According to Weather Underground the minimum temperature for Honolulu this winter was 61o, with no snow.

Hawaii January
Honolulu February

//although that surely is a lie spread by Bill Ayers
 
2014-02-24 12:09:30 PM  
global climate != local weather

sigh

can't take article seriously with such obvious bias dripping from every paragraph...


"the lowly caterpillar beats supercomputers that can't even predict the past"

"surely better than those who obsess over fossil fuels and CO2"

"Such uncertainty is what we are supposed to be basing our industrial and economic policy on"

"The CPC seems to have completely missed the 'polar vortex'"

"the United Nations' latest (wrong) global warming report"

"We've also seen climate expeditions stick in ice that wasn't supposed to be there and polar bear populations rising"

"Maybe Al Gore should check the Farmers' Almanac"
 
2014-02-24 12:10:18 PM  

Nadie_AZ: I followed that thing for a few years ... and no. It predicted squat.


Did you follow the Farmer's Almanac, or the Farmer's Alamac like subby did?
 
2014-02-24 12:11:24 PM  
tea baggers and deniers.  It's always the tea baggers and the deniers.
 
2014-02-24 12:18:34 PM  

DoctorOfLove: tea baggers and deniers.  It's always the tea baggers and the deniers.


Why can't they just get a room?.
 
2014-02-24 12:25:37 PM  

phimuskapsi: How many times are we going to anti-AGW articles a week on Fark? This is the 3rd or 4th in 2 weeks, and all of them are bullshiat.

Oh a note, the Almanac predicts weather, AGW predicts CLIMATE. Two very different things.


AGW does not "predict climate".  Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is a hypothesis that the earth will increase in temperature based on human activity.  Much of the focus has been on carbon dioxide emissions.

There are climate models (that do "predict" climate) which assume AGW is true and assign various effects to CO2 and other gasses but, and it's a huge but, none of those models are actually predictive.  That is, if you feed them climate data up to 1964 and then ask them to predict the next 50 years none of them come out looking like the actual climate over the past 50 years.

So here's the rub.  There are theories that predict disaster 50 years from now, but if you feed them historic data and ask them to predict today they'll tell you we're already dead.  Based on those theories some people want to drastically damage the world economy today.

The facts are that we've changed the atmospheric composition.  CO2 has gone from 0.025% of the atmosphere to 0.038% within my lifetime.  Where we can reduce CO2 emissions we should, but not at the price of impoverishing us.

The climate has changed drastically for unknown reasons in the past without human intervention, so for anyone to say that they "know" how increased CO2 is changing the climate is specious.

The problem I have with many of the AGW crowd is that they want to use it as an excuse to increase government intervention in private lives and control of individuals.

If you want to decrease CO2 emissions, the cleanest way to do it is to tax carbon based fuel sources based on they CO2 that they will emit if burned.  Carbon trading and subsidies for "clean energy" are sucker bets.
 
2014-02-24 12:40:53 PM  

ikanreed: LowbrowDeluxe: Is there some way I can go BEYOND simply turning off ads?  Something where I can cost them money any time I regrettably click on this click-bait bullshiat?

Yeah, mail them dynamite.


Tried that.  Can't get Jimmy Walker into the envelope.
 
2014-02-24 12:43:50 PM  

SN1987a goes boom: Isn't this the same site that brought us the stunning expose' on how if Steven Hawking lived under socialized medicine, then he'd be dead by now?


It is.

http://news.investors.com/073109-503058-how-house-bill-runs-over-gra nd ma.htm
 
2014-02-24 12:43:54 PM  
Yeah, I mean except for the fact that the Farmer's Almanac predictions are vague and still turned out to be bullshiat for most places, sure.

WTF is with TFA? I don't know about where you live but it was warm as hell right up until the last few weeks here in DC. We hit the farking 70's in December!! It was insane. But then we do finally get some cold weather and a little - just a little mind you - snow and all of a sudden it's supposedly so crazy cold that global climate change is apparently "debunked". And forgetting that the "crazy cold" temps were actually what used to be normal winter temps when we were younger.

And that's also ignoring that climate isn't weather and that TFA article repeats numerous completely bogus claims, like the complete bullshiat one about how temps haven't risen in the last decade and a half...

Ugh...
 
2014-02-24 12:57:45 PM  
Hey, morans...

We've been seeing 40's since roughly the beginning of January, went to 50's about the beginning of February, and we've been hitting 60 here in Salt lake now for the last week or week and a half. As for New Year's in Times Square? It was a High of about 32 and a low of about 21. Cold, but not "Bring in the kids and huddle around the furnace door, the end of the world is upon us" cold. Hell, due to all of the farking people rubbing bodies, we saw people in light, unzipped jackets hanging out on New Year's. And it was 50 degrees there on Superbowl Sunday, so stop with this "The whole US has been plunged into a subzero death spiral for 9 months now" bullshiat. I hasn't been THAT cold of a winter, and some places have actually had a WARMER winter than normal.
 
2014-02-24 12:59:00 PM  
It is hard to get people to believe when Ma Nature trolls the hell out of us. Locally people still remember getting 17" of snow early last May (never happened before) the cool dry summer and then this.

www.crh.noaa.gov


Not to mention it is been a long time since I have see this much snow on the ground in late Feb and the forecast does not even consider over 20 degrees for the next 10 + days.
 
2014-02-24 01:00:51 PM  

Arkanaut: Also, there was this little gem:

The winter has stayed cold in 2014, and snowfall and snow cover are way above average. USA Today reported on Feb. 14 that there was snow on the ground in part of every state except Florida. That includes Hawaii.

Are they talking about Mauna Kea? According to Weather Underground the minimum temperature for Honolulu this winter was 61o, with no snow.

Hawaii January
Honolulu February

//although that surely is a lie spread by Bill Ayers


Here's their snow...

img.snow-forecast.com

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Mauna-Kea/webcams/latest
 
2014-02-24 01:05:17 PM  

dennysgod: [chscomet.org image 755x450]

Someone should ask California how they have enjoyed their cold and wet winter this year, or how the Great Lakes and Northeast have enjoyed their mild winter.


Yeah, here in Utah, we had "mild". but not farking "snowy"... That Old Farmer can Eat A Dick.
 
2014-02-24 01:35:37 PM  

Marcus Aurelius: My broken clock will be showing the correct time in exactly 3... 2... 1.... there it is.


If it's right again later today, you'll have me convinced.
 
2014-02-24 01:42:01 PM  

Mikey1969: We've been seeing 40's since roughly the beginning of January, went to 50's about the beginning of February, and we've been hitting 60 here in Salt lake now for the last week or week and a half. As for New Year's in Times Square? It was a High of about 32 and a low of about 21. Cold, but not "Bring in the kids and huddle around the furnace door, the end of the world is upon us" cold. Hell, due to all of the farking people rubbing bodies, we saw people in light, unzipped jackets hanging out on New Year's. And it was 50 degrees there on Superbowl Sunday, so stop with this "The whole US has been plunged into a subzero death spiral for 9 months now" bullshiat. I hasn't been THAT cold of a winter, and some places have actually had a WARMER winter than normal.


www.ncdc.noaa.gov

The people of the 7 medium-blue pixels in the upper left tend to have minimal awareness of the places covered by hundreds of pink and red pixels.

This puts this past January into better historical context:


www.ncdc.noaa.gov

How the US media covers this:
During January 2014, most of the world's land areas experienced warmer-than-average temperatures, with the most notable departures from the 1981-2010 average across Alaska, western Canada, Greenland, Mongolia, southern Russia, and northern China, where the departure from average was +3°C (+5.4°F) or greater. Meanwhile, parts of southeastern Brazil and central and southern Africa experienced record warmth with temperature departures between 0.5°C to 1.5°C above the 1981-2010 average, contributing to the highest January Southern Hemisphere land temperature departure on record at 1.13°C (2.03°F) above the 20th century average. This was also the warmest month for the Southern Hemisphere land since September 2013 when temperatures were 1.23°C (2.21°F) above the 20th century average. Some locations across the globe experienced departures that were below the 1981-2010 average. These areas include the eastern half of the contiguous U.S., central Canada, and most of Scandinavia and Russia. The most notable cold anomalies were in Russia, where in some areas the departure from average was 5°C (9°F) below average. Overall, the Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature was 1.17°C (2.11°F) above average-the warmest January since 2007 and the fourth warmest since records began in 1880.
 
2014-02-24 01:59:11 PM  

chimp_ninja: This puts this past January into better historical context:


You expect me to infer a trendline from that data? I mean, look at the anomalies! If I focus on the whole dataset, I'll miss the anomalies that confirm my preconceived notions!
 
2014-02-24 02:03:25 PM  

Mikey1969: That Old Farmer can Eat A Dick.


E-I-E-I-O!
 
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