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(Time)   The long winter can be blamed on one thing: a changing jet stream   (nation.time.com) divider line 166
    More: PSA, jet streams, middle latitudes, winter  
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6789 clicks; posted to Main » on 16 Feb 2014 at 1:07 PM (22 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-02-16 02:23:03 PM
The science is settled.
 
2014-02-16 02:26:11 PM

TopoGigo: Look, I'm as much of a believer of science and evidence as anyone. So, let's see some. What the hell evidence is there that this is a "changing pattern" as opposed to an anomaly this year? One data point doesn't make a pattern.


While I suspect the first half of your post is not exactly genuine, I will give it a shot.

Nobody is saying that this is a long term change for sure. They are putting out possible explanations of this year's anomalies based on our understanding of how things work and our evidence of what has changed for sure.

The press will run with any extremist story so you really should ignore anything in the press. If something they say is interesting then look up the actual science ... the press always gets the science wrong.

What we know:
- the jet stream drives the polar vortex
- the polar vortex tends to hold the arctic air within itself - occasionally pockets of cold air escape
- the jet stream is created by a temperature difference between the polar region and the mid-latitudes
- the polar regions are heating up 2x to 3x times faster than the mid-latitudes

So the theory goes like this:
If the delta-T drops due to faster heating of the arctic then the velocity of the jet stream will drop. That in turn will reduce the intensity of the polar vortex. Which would then cause more events of arctic air escaping. Which could explain this winter.

Note that these are just preliminary theories. It is scientists' jobs to figure this stuff out and they do this by analyzing the the events and coming up with theories as to how they happened. The press and political web sites take these theories and fit them to their agenda. Scientists are not claiming anything as fact ... although individual scientists are free to hold personal opinions.

In a case like this it will take years to decide if the events of this winter are freak weather or are long term climate related with any real level of certainty. But it is natural to look at the long series of freak weather events and remember that one of the primary predictions of AGW/GCC is unpredictable, atypical weather.
 
2014-02-16 02:28:58 PM

TheCruxOfTheBiscuitIsTheApostrophe: The science is settled.


The only people saying this are really, really stupid people.

No climate scientists are saying this.
 
2014-02-16 02:29:00 PM

BluVeinThrobber: It's the Government Farking with the weather. (see HAARP)


So Obummer is playing with the weather Dominator?
 
2014-02-16 02:30:02 PM
This is not a long winter. It's an unusually cold and snowy winter in a lot of the country, but it's not actually longer than usual.
 
2014-02-16 02:30:04 PM

ZoSo_the_Crowe: If current weather patterns are really part of a long-term shift then this will have horrific ramifications on America's food supply, as the current weather pattern is drought in the San Joaquin Valley.


Hardly. It just means more seasonality of produce. Less, more expensive fresh veggies in winter, meaning a come back for canning and preserving.
 
2014-02-16 02:34:01 PM

BluVeinThrobber: It's the Government Farking with the weather. (see HAARP)


One of the guys on my PhD committee was the PI for HAARP. He collected loony stories that people came up with that were supposedly due to HAARP. In addition to weather change, it made birds fly backwards (aerodynamically impossible) and was capable of mind control. My favorite was how HAARP was secretly moved to the east coast and made a rip in space-time there, allowing dinosaurs to roam New Jersey.

more on topic:
The jet stream has always controlled the local climate. Nothing new there. With the arctic ocean melting and absorbing more heat, I can see this new pattern becoming more frequent - even permanent (on human time scales). I wouldn't mind much, this has been the mildest winter for a long time in Fairbanks AK.
 
2014-02-16 02:35:57 PM
I like the jargon change from global warming to climate change. Guess we gotta make sure we keep a crisis going.
 
2014-02-16 02:39:38 PM

TuteTibiImperes: Well, as a positive benefit on climate change, this winter has been absolutely beautiful in FL this year.  We've had a few nice chilly days to remind us that different seasons exist, but it hasn't dipped below freezing (well, at least here) to endanger any of the landscaping or crops.

Plus, my AC has had to run a lot less.  My electric bill was only $45 last month, that's a little more than half of the normal winter level and a fifth of the normal summer level.

Of course, the downside is if this shiat keeps up eventually the ice caps are going to melt and my house is going to be under water, so hopefully the storms up north keep driving folks south so I can sell it for a nice profit and move to a higher elevation before that happens.


I'm gonna guess you're in Palm Beach County.

We've had freezing temps up here and a possibility of snow but no actual snow.
 
2014-02-16 02:39:48 PM
Damnit I had aliens in the pool, now I'm out $50
 
2014-02-16 02:40:55 PM

Gentoolive: I like the jargon change from global warming to climate change. Guess we gotta make sure we keep a crisis going.


There has been no jargon change - Global warming and climate change are different things and we are talking about different things. Global warming is when the temperature, averaged over the whole planet, over the whole year goes up from one year to the next, or has an upward trend. This is a GLOBAL value. Climate change is when the long term weather patterns (and thus the plants and animals that can survive there) in a specific area changes. This is a LOCAL variable. Global warming drives climate change.

Being ignorant and not learning the vocabulary before you talk only makes you look stupid. It doesn't hurt Al Gore at all.
 
2014-02-16 02:42:18 PM

NotARocketScientist: BluVeinThrobber: It's the Government Farking with the weather. (see HAARP)

One of the guys on my PhD committee was the PI for HAARP. He collected loony stories that people came up with that were supposedly due to HAARP. In addition to weather change, it made birds fly backwards (aerodynamically impossible) and was capable of mind control. My favorite was how HAARP was secretly moved to the east coast and made a rip in space-time there, allowing dinosaurs to roam New Jersey.

more on topic:
The jet stream has always controlled the local climate. Nothing new there. With the arctic ocean melting and absorbing more heat, I can see this new pattern becoming more frequent - even permanent (on human time scales). I wouldn't mind much, this has been the mildest winter for a long time in Fairbanks AK.


So youre not denying it? Those giant antenna arrays aren't there to pick up the top 40  countdown
 
2014-02-16 02:42:56 PM
Two odd things about this winter : lots of 1-2 inch snows and no January thaw. Not really that cold. (2 days w/ long johns )
 
2014-02-16 02:44:02 PM
   We had over a foot of snow last week and the one thing that surprised me the most was that I only saw 1 kid playing in it and he was on an ATV. No sledding, no snowball fights and the only snowman was created by my niece and her daughter. When I was a kid we did all of those things, my father used a tractor to make the snow into a giant "fort" we could play in. As I got a little older there were bonfires, night sledding and usually a fifth that someone "borrowed" from their dad's liquor cabinet.

/I guess today's little snowflakes are frightened by a few wet snowflakes.
 
2014-02-16 02:46:39 PM

FatherChaos: [thisishistorictimes.com image 787x542]


That's fantastic.
 
2014-02-16 02:47:10 PM

Lee451: We had over a foot of snow last week and the one thing that surprised me the most was that I only saw 1 kid playing in it and he was on an ATV. No sledding, no snowball fights and the only snowman was created by my niece and her daughter. When I was a kid we did all of those things, my father used a tractor to make the snow into a giant "fort" we could play in. As I got a little older there were bonfires, night sledding and usually a fifth that someone "borrowed" from their dad's liquor cabinet.

/I guess today's little snowflakes are frightened by a few wet snowflakes.


They would do that if you didn't keep kicking them off your lawn.
 
2014-02-16 02:49:27 PM

Gentoolive: I like the jargon change from global warming to climate change. Guess we gotta make sure we keep a crisis going.


A common denier lie.

The term Climate Change is commonly used in the scientific literature back in the 1970s (here is a reference from 1956). It is a correct term which describes some of the impact of Global Warming. The terms Global Warming and Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) are still in common use. There has been no substitution.

The term Climate Change became more common during the G.W. Bush administration when they finally decided to admit that the average planetary temperature was rising but decided to set a policy to use the term Climate Change because they felt it was less scary.

Repeating denier lies makes you look like an idiot.

More details
 
2014-02-16 02:51:39 PM
Farking Canuck:

While I suspect the first half of your post is not exactly genuine, I will give it a shot.

You seem to have mistaken me for someone who changes the color of my text. I was merely saying that a single occurrence of a phenomenon was not indicative of a pattern.

The press will run with any extremist story so you really should ignore anything in the press.

Just because it's true doesn't mean I'm wrong to complain about it. You can point to a myriad of reasons--from the blindingly obvious to conspiracy theories--why science literacy is on the decline in the US. I will assert (and quite hypocritically, I'll do it with no evidence or data) that a measurable percentage of blame can be assigned to the fact that people who don't understand math or science so often end up as journalists and K-8 teachers, because their programs don't require them. My wife is a kindergarten teacher, and she fails to understand the most basic features of the solar system...like which bodies orbit which, why they do so, and which bodies are farther away than others. Electricity? Weather? Magnets? Television? A simple budget? All beyond her grasp. She is also smarter and more intellectually curious than most of her coworkers. Think on that and despair.
 
2014-02-16 02:53:05 PM

grokca: Damnit I had aliens in the pool, now I'm out $50


Aliens don't really like the pool. Sure, they came here to steal our water, but they prefer it in ice form.
 
2014-02-16 02:54:24 PM

Lee451: We had over a foot of snow last week and the one thing that surprised me the most was that I only saw 1 kid playing in it and he was on an ATV. No sledding, no snowball fights and the only snowman was created by my niece and her daughter. When I was a kid we did all of those things, my father used a tractor to make the snow into a giant "fort" we could play in. As I got a little older there were bonfires, night sledding and usually a fifth that someone "borrowed" from their dad's liquor cabinet.

/I guess today's little snowflakes are frightened by a few wet snowflakes.


My father and I were just complaining about this the other day, and we both realized...if we had Xboxen when we were children, we damned sure wouldn't have been out in the snow, either.
 
2014-02-16 02:54:56 PM

Oldiron_79: BluVeinThrobber: It's the Government Farking with the weather. (see HAARP)

So Obummer is playing with the weather Dominator?


Thanks Obamma
 
2014-02-16 02:57:32 PM
Long winter?  Last I checked, we're in the middle of February, which is totally in what season again?
 
2014-02-16 03:01:20 PM

IlGreven: Long winter?  Last I checked, we're in the middle of February, which is totally in what season again?


While I don't disagree, I think people are referring to the earlier than normal arrival of snow in many areas.
 
2014-02-16 03:02:30 PM

MemeSlave: The winter isn't long, the winter is winter.   It's winter until March 21 or so.   Snow falls in winter.   Is our cultural memory so short that we don't remember previous epic winters?


IIRC January 1979 in central Maryland was so cold & blizzardy I felt lucky to be in a maximum security cottage in juvie. Warm, dry, people to play cards with, and they brought in food on trays.
 
2014-02-16 03:04:01 PM

Oldiron_79: Iblame(shakes magic 8 ball) El Niño


www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkSRUf02gu8
 
2014-02-16 03:09:01 PM

Gentoolive: I like the jargon change from global warming to climate change. Guess we gotta make sure we keep a crisis going.


The first known use of the term "Global Warming" came 20 years after the first known use of "Climate Change". Stop repeating lies.
 
2014-02-16 03:10:07 PM
So...global warming or ice age ?


/DRTFA
 
2014-02-16 03:15:39 PM

TopoGigo: Lee451: We had over a foot of snow last week and the one thing that surprised me the most was that I only saw 1 kid playing in it and he was on an ATV. No sledding, no snowball fights and the only snowman was created by my niece and her daughter. When I was a kid we did all of those things, my father used a tractor to make the snow into a giant "fort" we could play in. As I got a little older there were bonfires, night sledding and usually a fifth that someone "borrowed" from their dad's liquor cabinet.

/I guess today's little snowflakes are frightened by a few wet snowflakes.

My father and I were just complaining about this the other day, and we both realized...if we had Xboxen when we were children, we damned sure wouldn't have been out in the snow, either.


I don't know about the people I grew up with but I never got into video games. In the 1960's/1970's we would be outside from dawn past dusk and there were no fears of abduction. Now, with only one leg, I have a hell of a time getting through more than an inch or two of snow. Only fell once so far, though.
 
2014-02-16 03:16:49 PM

Farking Canuck: IlGreven: Long winter?  Last I checked, we're in the middle of February, which is totally in what season again?

While I don't disagree, I think people are referring to the earlier than normal arrival of snow in many areas.


It didn't arrive earlier here. In fact, we were snow-free most of December. We had record amounts of snowfall in January, but December had little snow right up until Christmas.

/Abnormally cold and snowy, I'll give you.
//Long? No.
 
2014-02-16 03:21:19 PM

Farking Canuck: Gentoolive: I like the jargon change from global warming to climate change. Guess we gotta make sure we keep a crisis going.

A common denier lie.

The term Climate Change is commonly used in the scientific literature back in the 1970s (here is a reference from 1956). It is a correct term which describes some of the impact of Global Warming. The terms Global Warming and Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) are still in common use. There has been no substitution.

The term Climate Change became more common during the G.W. Bush administration when they finally decided to admit that the average planetary temperature was rising but decided to set a policy to use the term Climate Change because they felt it was less scary.

Repeating denier lies makes you look like an idiot.

More details


I'm frustrated by the idiocy of people assuming global climate change means disaster, or overall negative effects for mankind, which is as absurd as denying the increase in anthropogenic CO2 levels.  Prehistoric evidence indicates that warm periods have always been golden ages for those living then compared to cooler times before or after, an unalloyed boon to human survival, the development of agriculture, and civilization.

Still people pick out the likely fact that things will change and expect everyone to act as though Virginia orange juice and Iowa cotton and a Siberian breadbasket to the world would be horrible.

Act as though vastly rising sea levels are inevitable when Greenland and Antarctica are already assumed to be receiving more snowfall (see your own linked map), Greenland's ice cap being too high altitude and Antarctica too cold, warming or not, to likely do anything but accumulate ice. Ignore those big "more rainfall" regions and the lushness that warmth plus water will result in, because they aren't agriculturally usable now as they will be when it becomes drier in other regions.

It's like acting as if the major impact of penicillin is uncounted deaths from accidental allergic reactions.  It's time to begin determining how we will adapt to and gain benefits from this opportunity, not pretend that not doing so will somehow magically stop it.
 
2014-02-16 03:23:05 PM

RottenEggs: So...global warming or ice age ?


/DRTFA


whynotboth.jpg
 
2014-02-16 03:28:14 PM

SwiftFox: Prehistoric evidence indicates that warm periods have always been golden ages for those living


Who told you this?
 
2014-02-16 03:30:00 PM

Lee451: TopoGigo: Lee451: We had over a foot of snow last week and the one thing that surprised me the most was that I only saw 1 kid playing in it and he was on an ATV. No sledding, no snowball fights and the only snowman was created by my niece and her daughter. When I was a kid we did all of those things, my father used a tractor to make the snow into a giant "fort" we could play in. As I got a little older there were bonfires, night sledding and usually a fifth that someone "borrowed" from their dad's liquor cabinet.

/I guess today's little snowflakes are frightened by a few wet snowflakes.

My father and I were just complaining about this the other day, and we both realized...if we had Xboxen when we were children, we damned sure wouldn't have been out in the snow, either.

I don't know about the people I grew up with but I never got into video games. In the 1960's/1970's we would be outside from dawn past dusk and there were no fears of abduction. Now, with only one leg, I have a hell of a time getting through more than an inch or two of snow. Only fell once so far, though.


Understood.  When you have a Farker that smart, you don't want to eat him all at once.
 
jvl
2014-02-16 03:33:08 PM
Uh... I understand that many of the models predicted an increase in the north-and-south swings in the Jet, but I don't recall any predictions that the Jet would remain in a stationary pattern, which is the real problem this winter.
 
2014-02-16 03:35:39 PM

SwiftFox: I'm frustrated by the idiocy of people assuming global climate change means disaster, or overall negative effects for mankind, which is as absurd as denying the increase in anthropogenic CO2 levels.


Of course you are frustrated.

You have not read the extensive library of scientific papers on this exact topic and have decided that you've thought of something that nobody else has. Sitting by your mailbox day after day waiting for your Nobel prize cheque must get very frustrating.

The scientists that have looked into this see problems with your alleged golden age. Little things like:
- no soil in the new growing regions - apparently you need more than just the right temperature
- massive loss of species of flora and fauna that are unable to migrate fast enough
- loss of coastline infrastructure causing massive financial impact, population shifts, and many more negative impacts
- the infrastructure shift to move all the food grown in new areas

You keep waiting on your Nobel prize. Someday they'll recognize your brilliance.
 
2014-02-16 03:36:22 PM
zomg, zomg, zomg,  we're having weather, and it's different than last year! Everybody panic!!!
 
2014-02-16 03:39:20 PM
Good to see HAARP is getting results.
 
2014-02-16 03:42:36 PM
imgs.xkcd.com
 
2014-02-16 03:44:28 PM
 
2014-02-16 03:47:21 PM
Discontent during a long winter is merely a state of mind.
 
2014-02-16 04:12:12 PM
Oh blah, climate scientist are probably all failed physicists, chemists, etc. probably even meteorologists.
 
2014-02-16 04:26:24 PM
PDO
AMO
look them up
 
2014-02-16 04:26:27 PM

NotARocketScientist: Gentoolive: I like the jargon change from global warming to climate change. Guess we gotta make sure we keep a crisis going.

There has been no jargon change - Global warming and climate change are different things and we are talking about different things. Global warming is when the temperature, averaged over the whole planet, over the whole year goes up from one year to the next, or has an upward trend. This is a GLOBAL value. Climate change is when the long term weather patterns (and thus the plants and animals that can survive there) in a specific area changes. This is a LOCAL variable. Global warming drives climate change.

Being ignorant and not learning the vocabulary before you talk only makes you look stupid. It doesn't hurt Al Gore at all.


To be fair, most folks get their info from the media, a supposed expert that does their research to promote accurate data. The media has been using those phrases almost interchangeably, especially since the argument "What global warming, it's colder than crap here!" started popping up. 

/isn't sure why the media is still considered a credible source for papers and wiki isn't...
//at least wiki posts references so you can check against them.
 
2014-02-16 04:29:27 PM
everybody wants some.
 
2014-02-16 04:29:54 PM
http://www.pnas.org/content/101/12/4136.full

Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States
 
2014-02-16 04:34:04 PM
Conclusions
Three rotated principal components explain 74% of the variance in 20-year moving frequencies of drought in the conterminous U.S. The first component is highly correlated with the PDO, and the second component is correlated with the AMO. These first two components explain nearly equal proportions of variance in the entire data set and, combined, explain 52% of the total variance. These results support previous research that has indicated the existence of a relation between these climate indices and drought variability in the U.S. The third component represents a complex pattern of positive and negative trends in U.S. drought frequency over the 20th Century, and its score time series is highly correlated with both a trend line and the inverse NH temperature time series. The inclusion of all three time series, the PDO, AMO, and a trending geophysical indicator like NH temperature, appears to be crucial in generating multiple regression equations that can accurately simulate the historical 20-year patterns of drought frequency. This research indicates that persistence of the current positive AMO state may lead to continuing above normal frequencies of U.S. drought in the near future, with the pattern of drought modulated by the sign of the PDO.
 
2014-02-16 04:38:49 PM

Farking Canuck: SwiftFox: I'm frustrated by the idiocy of people assuming global climate change means disaster, or overall negative effects for mankind, which is as absurd as denying the increase in anthropogenic CO2 levels.

Of course you are frustrated.

You have not read the extensive library of scientific papers on this exact topic and have decided that you've thought of something that nobody else has. Sitting by your mailbox day after day waiting for your Nobel prize cheque must get very frustrating.

The scientists that have looked into this see problems with your alleged golden age. Little things like:
- no soil in the new growing regions - apparently you need more than just the right temperature
- massive loss of species of flora and fauna that are unable to migrate fast enough
- loss of coastline infrastructure causing massive financial impact, population shifts, and many more negative impacts
- the infrastructure shift to move all the food grown in new areas

You keep waiting on your Nobel prize. Someday they'll recognize your brilliance.


Little problems with your doomsaying:
- Yes, there are regions with poor soil which will get more rain.  There isn't that much land with "no soil". Gosh, they'll have to use fertilizers!

- Perhaps the Alpine Screw-tailed Marmot that only lives at high altitudes in already warm (at lower levels) regions will be blocked from finding more northerly mountains to live on, but "unable to migrate fast enough" isn't going to be common at the rate of climate change occurring, that is as stupid as blaming a particular winter on GCC or belittling GCC based on one.

- The "loss of coastline infrastructure" is merely a hypothesis that sea levels will rise, given the possibility of more precipitation at Greenland's ice cap altitude and in Antarctica) and changes will similarly be glacial (no pun intended) compared to the ability of man to build and adapt, or the financial impact of the infrastructure aging and having to be replaced. "Population shifts" taking advantage of the new climate could be good or bad overall, this is the "change must be bad" assumption I was pointing out. I would compare your "many more" prophesied "negative effects" to many more possible positive effects.

- "infrastructure shift to move all the food grown in new areas" - wow, you're really reaching on this one.  You think railroads can't be built and silos erected as fast as the change is occurring enough? Silly as shiat, that one.

At this point the scientists have gotten the message.  Politically, to preserve their jobs they seem to have to take the "it will be a disaster" stance. At least keep their mouth shut and let people like you blow things like  "population shifts" and "replacing infrastructure" (which must be done anyway) into something so disastrous that any attempt to mitigate or take advantage of the opportunity is attacked as, incredibly, not addressing the problem and somehow supporting climate change deniers.
 
2014-02-16 04:42:20 PM

stirfrybry: Conclusions
Three rotated principal components explain 74% of the variance in 20-year moving frequencies of drought in the conterminous U.S. The first component is highly correlated with the PDO, and the second component is correlated with the AMO. These first two components explain nearly equal proportions of variance in the entire data set and, combined, explain 52% of the total variance. These results support previous research that has indicated the existence of a relation between these climate indices and drought variability in the U.S. The third component represents a complex pattern of positive and negative trends in U.S. drought frequency over the 20th Century, and its score time series is highly correlated with both a trend line and the inverse NH temperature time series. The inclusion of all three time series, the PDO, AMO, and a trending geophysical indicator like NH temperature, appears to be crucial in generating multiple regression equations that can accurately simulate the historical 20-year patterns of drought frequency. This research indicates that persistence of the current positive AMO state may lead to continuing above normal frequencies of U.S. drought in the near future, with the pattern of drought modulated by the sign of the PDO.


Awesome shiat bro.

It only got up to the high 60's here today. Not sure if thats because of the PDO or the AMO, but its pissing me off.
 
2014-02-16 04:42:37 PM

Farking Canuck: SwiftFox: I'm frustrated by the idiocy of people assuming global climate change means disaster, or overall negative effects for mankind, which is as absurd as denying the increase in anthropogenic CO2 levels.

Of course you are frustrated.

You have not read the extensive library of scientific papers on this exact topic and have decided that you've thought of something that nobody else has. Sitting by your mailbox day after day waiting for your Nobel prize cheque must get very frustrating.

The scientists that have looked into this see problems with your alleged golden age. Little things like:
- no soil in the new growing regions - apparently you need more than just the right temperature
- massive loss of species of flora and fauna that are unable to migrate fast enough
- loss of coastline infrastructure causing massive financial impact, population shifts, and many more negative impacts
- the infrastructure shift to move all the food grown in new areas

You keep waiting on your Nobel prize. Someday they'll recognize your brilliance.


What is it about climatology that attracts the folks into end-of-the-world porn?
 
2014-02-16 04:56:29 PM

cuzsis: What is it about climatology that attracts the folks into end-of-the-world porn?


Evidence attracts us to make realistic appraisals of where we are heading.

Denier exaggeration paints this as "end-of-the-world porn".
 
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