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(Syracuse Post-Standard)   Great Lakes ice coverage set to break the all-time record next week, exactly as predicted by global climate models   (syracuse.com) divider line 260
    More: Cool, Central New York, Great Lakes, Great Lakes ice, physical scientist, Lake Ontario, global climate models, lake effect  
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9569 clicks; posted to Main » on 13 Feb 2014 at 3:21 PM (27 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-02-13 03:39:08 PM

Pick: Most people can't remember a winter this cold, because they have not been alive that long......


You sound old.
 
2014-02-13 03:39:18 PM

unexplained bacon: looks like we're getting a heat wave next week, not sure if that's factored in DRTFA

damn it's been a hard winter, I can't recall one so cold and so snowy with so few breaks.


*checks accuweather*

Hmm...high 20's to mid 30's.

//Ill take it!
 
2014-02-13 03:39:21 PM

Coming on a Bicycle: In North West Europe, by contrast, winter has been absent. Not there. Gone. We've had no winter. At all. Sorry!


Then count yourself lucky. Since Decemember it's been bitterly cold with some days hitting -40c in south central Ontario. We have about 1 to 1.5 meters of snow. I hated this winter.
 
2014-02-13 03:39:27 PM
I predict that one day the alarmist will make a prediction that actually happens but nobody will be paying attention because they have yet to be correct and are looked at as the little boy who cries wolf.
 
2014-02-13 03:39:47 PM

spickus: rkiller1: But every time in these threads I say "predictive climate models are imperfect" the chart and graph crew blow a seal.

Is that legal?


well don't try it at Sea World, but let's just say what happens in Alaska stays in Alaska
 
2014-02-13 03:40:18 PM

threefeetoffun: Since when is Buffalo in Central New York?


Maybe by latitude.  I guess.
 
2014-02-13 03:40:22 PM
I saw Dr. Michio Kaku on CBS This Morning. I realize he is an astrophysicist but the explanation he gave for it being so cold so far South is the north pole is heating up. This causes instability in the polar vortex causing it to spill South. Climate change will also cause large swings of heat and cold.
 
2014-02-13 03:41:04 PM

bikerbob59: unexplained bacon: looks like we're getting a heat wave next week, not sure if that's factored in DRTFA

damn it's been a hard winter, I can't recall one so cold and so snowy with so few breaks.

*checks accuweather*

Hmm...high 20's to mid 30's.

//Ill take it!


They're calling for 40s here in Mid-Michigan....I'm gonna break out the grill.
 
2014-02-13 03:41:24 PM

Tyee: I predict that one day the alarmist will make a prediction that actually happens but nobody will be paying attention because they have yet to be correct and are looked at as the little boy who cries wolf.


This!  I've been warning about imminent hyperinflation for 30 years!  When it finally happens, you'll all be sorry.
 
2014-02-13 03:41:31 PM

rkiller1: Slaxl: rkiller1: ...exactly as predicted by global climate models

Citation needed, or you be a troll, Subby.

[www.theindiepedant.com image 525x476]

Get yourself checked.

I will, thanks!  But every time in these threads I say "predictive climate models are imperfect" the chart and graph crew blow a seal.


NO!  IT WAS JUST ICE CREAM, DAMMIT!!
 
2014-02-13 03:41:47 PM

Anayalator: I farted this morning, and my butt got warm. Global warming my arse!


I farted this morning and snow came out of my ass.
 
2014-02-13 03:43:14 PM
Wait, there are lakes anywhere that don't freeze in winter? But... but how do people go ice fishing? What is this weird world people tell stories of??

/Minnesotan
//Drive out to my spot on the lake, set up the house and chill with some beers by the warm glow of the propane heater
 
2014-02-13 03:43:18 PM

bikerbob59: Anayalator: I farted this morning, and my butt got warm. Global warming my arse!

I farted this morning and snow came out of my ass.


How refreshing for your spouse!
 
2014-02-13 03:43:56 PM

czetie: rev. dave: If we had devices which could convert CO2 into gold dust, then conservatives would be screaming about there being too much CO2.
So we need to find a selfish motivation directly related to profit and hurting poor people to get them onboard.

"Global warming is making living on the streets more comfortable. Pretty soon the homeless won't even need blankets at night. Being homeless will become so attractive that millions of people will drop out of the workforce rather than work minimum-wage, no-benefit jobs for you".

Any good?


Ooh, onto something.  But there needs to be more freebies involved such as food appearing out of thin air and something to do with currency devaluation.
 
Bf+
2014-02-13 03:44:03 PM

sigdiamond2000: It's like putting coffee in tall, narrow mug instead of a short, wide one. The taller cup keeps the coffee warmer.

Can any of Fark's baristas speak specifically to this reckless, incredible claim?



Not a barista, but I'm guessing they were getting at the idea that less exposed coffee means it cools more slowly, but that completely disregards the amount of coffee mug surface area, which also contributes to cooling.  If the mug has a closing lid, then the shape of the mug would matter quite a bit.  I believe old coffee cans (and oil cans) used as little material while maximizing volume. If the mug doesn't have to be cylindrical to be a "mug", a spherical mug would keep the heat in the best, due to the minimal surface-area-to-volume ratio.
 
2014-02-13 03:44:35 PM

Kraftwerk Orange: sigdiamond2000: It's like putting coffee in tall, narrow mug instead of a short, wide one. The taller cup keeps the coffee warmer.

Can any of Fark's baristas speak specifically to this reckless, incredible claim?

IDK, less surface area to radiate heat?


That is the case, but the coffee cup analogy is just turrible.  Also, Lake Ontario has some different and faster internal currents that slow ice formation as well.
 
2014-02-13 03:44:48 PM

rkiller1:  the chart and graph crew blow a seal.


No, it's just a little ice cream
 
2014-02-13 03:44:58 PM

unexplained bacon: Dr Jack Badofsky: unexplained bacon: looks like we're getting a heat wave next week, not sure if that's factored in DRTFA

damn it's been a hard winter, I can't recall one so cold and so snowy with so few breaks.

In the Buffalo area, that would be the winter of 2010/2011.  Started December 3rd, and didn't warm up until at least mid-march.  We just didn't have the temps so close to zero (or below like a couple nights ago).  That was some major mandingsnow.

I'm trying to recall, but I think that year brought a lot of snow for us too, but we had thaws in between the storms. Not so much this year. The cold has been straight up brutal too, temps below -10 at night were practically common. It's 36 right now and I swear it feels like shorts weather. The wind doesn't even hurt my face.


I had damn near two feet of snow from December to march.  It may have warmed up for a couple days in between, but it was quickly followed by at least enough snow to replace what melted.  It was a lot like when I was a kid in the 70's and 80's.
 
2014-02-13 03:44:59 PM

Tyee: I predict that one day the alarmist will make a prediction that actually happens but nobody will be paying attention because they have yet to be correct and are looked at as the little boy who cries wolf.


You mean like weather becoming extreme due to warming ocean currents and farked up atmospheric currents?
 
2014-02-13 03:45:16 PM

bikerbob59: unexplained bacon: looks like we're getting a heat wave next week, not sure if that's factored in DRTFA

damn it's been a hard winter, I can't recall one so cold and so snowy with so few breaks.

*checks accuweather*

Hmm...high 20's to mid 30's.

//Ill take it!


In Toledo, it's beautiful out! Just a little below freezing. You barely need a coat!
 
2014-02-13 03:45:45 PM

Mell of a Hess: rev. dave: "...  global thermostat thingy?"

Al Gore's rectal thermometer?


So you can heat up and cool down Al Gore with it?
If it just measures then that won't help, plus we need zones.  I want Atlanta to get no hotter than 72F from April to October.
 
2014-02-13 03:45:56 PM

unexplained bacon: looks like we're getting a heat wave next week, not sure if that's factored in DRTFA

damn it's been a hard winter, I can't recall one so cold and so snowy with so few breaks.


Good thing weather never changes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
 
2014-02-13 03:46:19 PM
I thought it was supposed to warm up next week.
 
2014-02-13 03:46:34 PM

Dr Jack Badofsky: rkiller1: Slaxl: rkiller1: ...exactly as predicted by global climate models

Citation needed, or you be a troll, Subby.

[www.theindiepedant.com image 525x476]

Get yourself checked.

I will, thanks!  But every time in these threads I say "predictive climate models are imperfect" the chart and graph crew blow a seal.

NO!  IT WAS JUST ICE CREAM, DAMMIT!!


Damn you to hell.
 
2014-02-13 03:47:23 PM
My father told me about driving across Lake Ontario from New York to Canada when he was a boy (the 1920's or 30's).  I can remember driving out on the bays of Lake Ontario regularly as a kid and teen in the 1970's. but by the time the 80's rolled around I can remember people getting stuck out there and the media warning folks not to use the bays anymore, once while walking across my friends and I encountered open water when things should have been long frozen.

One freak winter does not mean much, especially since the records go back only a short way, lets see a few years of this.  Even with this winter the snowfall totals are way down from what I remember as a kid.
 
2014-02-13 03:48:19 PM

Mell of a Hess: rev. dave: "...  global thermostat thingy?"

Al Gore's rectal thermometer?


Great Band Name!!!
 
2014-02-13 03:48:31 PM

AngryDragon: I'm learning here that climate change proponents have absolutely no sense of humor.

I thought it was funny, subby


Nah, it's because the other side has such morons behind it we can't tell if they're joking or not.
 
2014-02-13 03:49:05 PM
California won't have enough water to get through the summer. Sao Paulo, Brazil is almost out of water. Maybe once millions of people who are used to having water don't have water anymore we'll start looking for solutions we should have been exploring for the past several decades. But who knows? We'll probably just say they're "poor" and therefore at fault for the conditions they find themselves in.
 
2014-02-13 03:49:26 PM

Mell of a Hess: Dr Jack Badofsky: rkiller1: Slaxl: rkiller1: ...exactly as predicted by global climate models

Citation needed, or you be a troll, Subby.

[www.theindiepedant.com image 525x476]

Get yourself checked.

I will, thanks!  But every time in these threads I say "predictive climate models are imperfect" the chart and graph crew blow a seal.

NO!  IT WAS JUST ICE CREAM, DAMMIT!!

Damn you to hell.


I live in Western NY, so, your wish has been granted.
 
2014-02-13 03:49:32 PM

Dr Jack Badofsky: unexplained bacon: Dr Jack Badofsky: unexplained bacon: looks like we're getting a heat wave next week, not sure if that's factored in DRTFA

damn it's been a hard winter, I can't recall one so cold and so snowy with so few breaks.

In the Buffalo area, that would be the winter of 2010/2011.  Started December 3rd, and didn't warm up until at least mid-march.  We just didn't have the temps so close to zero (or below like a couple nights ago).  That was some major mandingsnow.

I'm trying to recall, but I think that year brought a lot of snow for us too, but we had thaws in between the storms. Not so much this year. The cold has been straight up brutal too, temps below -10 at night were practically common. It's 36 right now and I swear it feels like shorts weather. The wind doesn't even hurt my face.

I had damn near two feet of snow from December to march.  It may have warmed up for a couple days in between, but it was quickly followed by at least enough snow to replace what melted.  It was a lot like when I was a kid in the 70's and 80's.


sounds like what I remember. this year around here we had even more snow storms with very little if any melt in between, I've got 2 foot of snow for sure. It's been windy too so the drifts are massive. Not to mention we had a crazy ass-windstorm in November that ripped up 6 adult trees in my yard.

harsh man, harsh.
 
2014-02-13 03:49:40 PM

interstellar_tedium: My father told me about driving across Lake Ontario from New York to Canada when he was a boy (the 1920's or 30's).  I can remember driving out on the bays of Lake Ontario regularly as a kid and teen in the 1970's. but by the time the 80's rolled around I can remember people getting stuck out there and the media warning folks not to use the bays anymore, once while walking across my friends and I encountered open water when things should have been long frozen.

One freak winter does not mean much, especially since the records go back only a short way, lets see a few years of this.  Even with this winter the snowfall totals are way down from what I remember as a kid.


Toledo is set to break their all time record. I think all we need is a couple more inches. And really, who couldn't use a couple more inches?
 
2014-02-13 03:50:06 PM
Since our planet acts as a zero sum engine, I would fully expect winter to become worse as the planet heats up.
 
2014-02-13 03:50:24 PM

MemeSlave: unexplained bacon: looks like we're getting a heat wave next week, not sure if that's factored in DRTFA

damn it's been a hard winter, I can't recall one so cold and so snowy with so few breaks.

Good thing weather never changes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age


thanks fella
 
2014-02-13 03:51:33 PM
 |  exactly as predicted by global climate models

Oh, I get it. That part is the joke.
 
2014-02-13 03:52:57 PM

Mell of a Hess: rkiller1:  the chart and graph crew blow a seal.

No, it's just a little ice cream


Dr Jack Badofsky:

NO!  IT WAS JUST ICE CREAM, DAMMIT!!

unexplained bacon:

Is that legal?

well don't try it at Sea World, but let's just say what happens in Alaska stays in Alaska



And....you're all welcome.  I only set 'em up, so my work is done here.
 
2014-02-13 03:53:29 PM

rev. dave: If we had devices which could convert CO2 into gold dust, then conservatives would be screaming about there being too much CO2.
So we need to find a selfish motivation directly related to profit and hurting poor people to get them onboard.


img.fark.net
 
2014-02-13 03:54:15 PM
Pretty sure global climate models aren't used to make individual predictions for Great Lakes ice coverage year-to-year.  Yay scientific illiteracy, Subby!
 
2014-02-13 03:55:27 PM

The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves: You mean the climate models that predict that weather will become increasingly extreme and unpredictable


Must be why we've been experiencing historic lows in tornadoes, hurricanes, and forest fires. Someone tell reality to start conforming to the models NOW, dammit!
 
2014-02-13 03:56:03 PM

unexplained bacon: Dr Jack Badofsky: In the Buffalo area, that would be the winter of 2010/2011.  Started December 3rd, and didn't warm up until at least mid-march.  We just didn't have the temps so close to zero (or below like a couple nights ago).  That was some major mandingsnow.

I'm trying to recall, but I think that year brought a lot of snow for us too, but we had thaws in between the storms. Not so much this year. The cold has been straight up brutal too, temps below -10 at night were practically common. It's 36 right now and I swear it feels like shorts weather. The wind doesn't even hurt my face.


I lost count of the nights it hit -10F to -20F here, and I'm only in New York (Hudson Valley). Now there's ten inches of fresh snow on top of the eight inches that's left from last week's storm, and this is just a lull. We're looking to double that this evening when it starts back up.
 
2014-02-13 03:57:31 PM

gretzkyscores: Someone tell reality to start conforming to the models NOW, dammit!


Or we could just tell you that a single year doesn't equate to a trend that you can compare to model projections.  You idiots chase every data point like you're scoring points in a game against someone, and completely ignore the trend.
 
2014-02-13 03:58:18 PM

Rapmaster2000: [o.onionstatic.com image 850x595]
HA HA HA.  I for one am glad this fad is almost over.  Up next, blue jeans, rap music, and miniskirts.


The crying Statue of Liberty gets me every time.
 
2014-02-13 03:58:42 PM
fark you deniers.
 
2014-02-13 03:59:23 PM

unexplained bacon: looks like we're getting a heat wave next week, not sure if that's factored in DRTFA

damn it's been a hard winter, I can't recall one so cold and so snowy with so few breaks.


I normally vacation near Little Lake in the winter, but Northern OH has been bad enough I said hell with it. I still let my friends use my camp because the snowmobile trails are so much better up there, but usually I just hang around camp and read/cook. Rather just do it at home this year.
 
2014-02-13 03:59:25 PM
For comparison, here's a report on the lakes from about forty years ago:

Lake Huron rolls, Superior sings In the rooms of her ice-water mansion. Old Michigan steams like a young man's dreams; the islands and bays are for sportsmen. And farther below Lake Ontario takes in what Lake Erie can send her.
 
2014-02-13 03:59:28 PM

belhade: unexplained bacon: Dr Jack Badofsky: In the Buffalo area, that would be the winter of 2010/2011.  Started December 3rd, and didn't warm up until at least mid-march.  We just didn't have the temps so close to zero (or below like a couple nights ago).  That was some major mandingsnow.

I'm trying to recall, but I think that year brought a lot of snow for us too, but we had thaws in between the storms. Not so much this year. The cold has been straight up brutal too, temps below -10 at night were practically common. It's 36 right now and I swear it feels like shorts weather. The wind doesn't even hurt my face.

I lost count of the nights it hit -10F to -20F here, and I'm only in New York (Hudson Valley). Now there's ten inches of fresh snow on top of the eight inches that's left from last week's storm, and this is just a lull. We're looking to double that this evening when it starts back up.


ouch...
yep, my outdoor thermometer has been below -10 when I checked it in the morning too many times to remember. The lowest actual was -22...though I didn't check every day. Wind chills in the -20 to -30 range were getting pretty common too. It's just now starting to let up here...like just today.
 
2014-02-13 04:00:30 PM

LordJiro: You mean like weather becoming extreme due ? to warming ocean currents and farked up atmospheric currents?


How many time have you said that weather and climate are not the same thing?
How many times has weather been extreme, by your standards, in the last million years?
How come when you run your outcome models in reverse we don't end up with todays climate?

When you make predictions that come true more people will pay attention, quit wasting your breath predicting wrong, we're going to stop paying attention..
 
2014-02-13 04:00:35 PM

belhade: there's ten inches of fresh snow on top of the eight inches that's left from last week's storm, and this is just a lull. We're looking to double that this evening when it starts back up.


Typical New Yorker, so selfish.  Now would you please share some of that snow with California?  I wanna go skiing next week, and the weather reports show mostly cloudy with rocky slopes.  (CSB I left my heart in Tuckahoe /CSB)
 
2014-02-13 04:00:47 PM

Descartes: Silly Subby, this is only weather.  When it's hotter than normal it's called climate.


well played.
 
2014-02-13 04:02:16 PM
I guess the fact Oregon is far far below average rainfall, and January was so farking dry we had FOREST FIRES.

Hear that?

FOREST FIRES.

IN JANUARY, TYPICALLY ONE OF OUR RAINIEST MONTHS.
 
2014-02-13 04:02:30 PM
It'll be nice to see 'Mr. 'D' in science' shoved back into obscurity with all the other climate pseudo-scientists soon...
 
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