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(Chicago Sun-Times)   One good thing about the Polar Vortex? It's decreased the murder rate in Chicago by 50% compared to January 2013, so it's got that going for it   (homicides.suntimes.com) divider line 39
    More: Cool, Chicago, Garry McCarthy, Chicago Police  
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1475 clicks; posted to Main » on 02 Feb 2014 at 8:50 AM (22 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



39 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2014-02-02 12:34:01 AM
 it will become more challenging without better laws that help keep illegal guns out of our communities and punish the criminals who carry them."

If only there were some way to arrest criminals with illegal guns.
 
2014-02-02 12:51:31 AM
FTFA: "The superintendent has said weather is a factor, but its not the only factor," said Chicago Police spokesman Adam Collins. "It neither causes nor prevents crime."

Bullshiat.  There is a direct causal relationship between property crime and temperature.  B & Es fall to near zero in extremely cold weather.  And if anyone is breaking into your place, it's likely because the alternative is frostbite.

However... As people get 'cabin fever' the number of domestic disturbances goes up.  A portion of these escalate to violence, including murder.

So weather is a huge factor- just not always a positive or negative one.
 
2014-02-02 12:51:49 AM
How do we know that crimes aren't simply being deferred until nicer weather?
 
2014-02-02 08:31:07 AM
This is a good thing?
 
2014-02-02 08:52:45 AM
But is domestic violence up?
 
2014-02-02 09:02:37 AM
So move all the black people from Chicago to the North Pole?

/snark
 
2014-02-02 09:05:50 AM
So concealed carry goes into effect on January 1 and the murder rate drops 50% as expected.

That ought to get things going
 
2014-02-02 09:10:59 AM

unyon: However... As people get 'cabin fever' the number of domestic disturbances goes up. A portion of these escalate to violence, including murder.


Interestingly enough, Baltimore found this out in 2010 when we had our series of snowstorms that dropped several feet of snow on the city, but, the murder rate went down. Yes, domestic violence went up, but I suppose the usual drug/gang related murders were put on hold since the bad guys couldn't get out of their homes.

Either later that summer, or the next summer, when we had a week or so of 100°+ heat index days, the murder rate also went down. Just too damn hot to do anything as strenuous as killing people.
 
2014-02-02 09:14:32 AM
Chicago wasn't cold last winter?
 
2014-02-02 09:17:20 AM

AntiGravitas: But is domestic violence up?


I don't know about your house, but my domestics are well treated and I seldom have to beat them.
 
2014-02-02 09:25:05 AM

itcamefromschenectady: How do we know that crimes aren't simply being deferred until nicer weather?


"Look here punk, you're treading on our turf. But it's cold as balls, so a 45 degree mid-April day, you're farkin' dead"
 
2014-02-02 09:28:17 AM
Just wait until the Bi-Polar Vortex hits.
 
2014-02-02 09:39:08 AM

AngryDragon: So concealed carry goes into effect on January 1 and the murder rate drops 50% as expected.

That ought to get things going


Nope!  We don't get our permits until at least April.
 
2014-02-02 09:43:08 AM
You need a slow murder year to restock up on victims.  The Polar Vortex will be having some babies later this year.
 
2014-02-02 09:43:51 AM

wildcardjack: AntiGravitas: But is domestic violence up?

I don't know about your house, but my domestics are well treated and I seldom have to beat them.


Hey, if the murders stay home, who is gonna feel their rage?
 
2014-02-02 09:45:09 AM
Everyone knows "the Blacks" do not enjoy the cold, which is why we put the Somali's in Minneapolis. We know that they will explode onto things and places eventually, but it will take them 40 years to do it. It's this kind of forward thinking that has our great country poised on the precipice...
 
2014-02-02 09:59:09 AM
My new porn star name is now Pole-her Vortex. That is all.
 
2014-02-02 10:05:44 AM

Arkanaut: Chicago wasn't cold last winter?


It averaged about 82, and was nice and sunny most of the month, good killing weather.
 
2014-02-02 10:07:20 AM
"The superintendent has said weather is a factor, but its not the only factor," said Chicago Police spokesman Adam Collins. "It neither causes nor prevents crime."

Hmmm... 20 years worth of Chicago murders - 1991-2011:

oi57.tinypic.com

Hmm.  Murder rates are always lowest during the cold months and highest during the warmest.  Welp, no relation to weather that I can see; there's no way the cold can prevent crime in this town.  Must be another reason that we're not aware of.

Data Source:(PDF Warning) https://portal.chicagopolice.org/portal/page/portal/ClearPath/News/St a tistical%20Reports/Murder%20Reports/MA11.pdf
 
2014-02-02 10:07:44 AM

dryknife: Just wait until the Bi-Polar Vortex hits.


*snort!
 
2014-02-02 10:07:54 AM
LeGnome
 SmartestFunniest

 2014-02-02 09:59:09 AM
My new porn star name is now Pole-her Vortex. That is all.

I just don't get this concept of "porn star". Who pays for porn? How would "porn star" get paid?
Love,
2014
 
2014-02-02 10:17:53 AM

lifeboat: "The superintendent has said weather is a factor, but its not the only factor," said Chicago Police spokesman Adam Collins. "It neither causes nor prevents crime."

Hmmm... 20 years worth of Chicago murders - 1991-2011:

[oi57.tinypic.com image 747x453]

Hmm.  Murder rates are always lowest during the cold months and highest during the warmest.  Welp, no relation to weather that I can see; there's no way the cold can prevent crime in this town.  Must be another reason that we're not aware of.

Data Source:(PDF Warning) https://portal.chicagopolice.org/portal/page/portal/ClearPath/News/St a tistical%20Reports/Murder%20Reports/MA11.pdf


Yeah, I was going to call bullshiat on that, too.  When it's hot and there are days with multiple killings, the cops will come on TV and say it's because of the weather. But, when things calm down, the weather's got nothing to do with it, just good police work.  McCarthy might be a good superintendent, but, he's a major bullshiater, too.
 
2014-02-02 10:25:13 AM
Weather: More effective than police, politicians, and gun control.
 
2014-02-02 10:44:01 AM

Kevin72: How would "porn star" get paid?



Facials don't count as payment? Learn something new everyday...
 
2014-02-02 10:44:59 AM
Once again, The Onion got there first.
 
2014-02-02 11:07:01 AM

Arkanaut: Chicago wasn't cold last winter?

 Well,if you are from Atlanta, then yes it wa cold, but I believe January last year was warmer than normal. Unlike this year where January was the third coldest in (at least) 30 years, making it a celebration of upper Minnaesota weather.
 
2014-02-02 11:08:09 AM

zimbomba63: Arkanaut: Chicago wasn't cold last winter?

It averaged about 82, and was nice and sunny most of the month, good killing weather.


So I can't tell if you were serious (the weather sure has been crazy!) but here are the stats for the last two years for Chicago (and I hope I'm reading this right):

2013- Average temp:  27 °F; Max temp:  63 °F; Min temp:  -1 °F; Average of daily highs:  35 °F; Average of daily lows:  18 °F
2014- Average temp:  16 °F; Max temp:  45 °F; Min temp:  -16 °F; Average of daily highs:  25 °F; Average of daily lows:  7 °F

Seems like temperatures were about 10 °F lower in Chicago across the board this year -- that sounds like the kind of change that really could make a difference.
 
2014-02-02 11:12:22 AM
But how many people froze to death?
 
2014-02-02 11:20:38 AM

itcamefromschenectady: How do we know that crimes aren't simply being deferred until nicer weather?


The bodies are already out there it was just too cold for the cops to get out of their cars to look for them. Doesn't matter, they'll keep until the weather gets warmer.
 
2014-02-02 11:27:57 AM

Kevin72: LeGnome
 SmartestFunniest

 2014-02-02 09:59:09 AM
My new porn star name is now Pole-her Vortex. That is all.

I just don't get this concept of "porn star". Who pays for porn? How would "porn star" get paid?
Love,
2014


Ad revenue. Licensing agreements. Especially on mobile.
 
2014-02-02 01:32:18 PM
I'm still disturbed that they have a need for the hostname HOMICIDES.suntimes.com.
 
2014-02-02 02:44:50 PM
Guns don't kill people. Global warming kills people. But there is no such thing as global warming, so nobody has ever been shot.
 
2014-02-02 03:02:51 PM

syrynxx: If only there were some way to arrest criminals with illegal guns.


We need a law to make it illegal to do things that are illegal.
 
2014-02-02 03:12:58 PM
I blame El Niño
 
2014-02-02 03:14:47 PM
A Major Contrast
Ottawa, Ontario nearly made it through January without a murder this year. The first murder of the year was a Sykh woman who was viciously stabbed in her suburban home in Barrhaven on January 30, while her husband and daughter were out buying flowers, etc. It was her birthday.

Her husband was instrumental in the arrest of three men so perhaps the motive was revenge but nothing is known at the moment of who attacked her or why she was attacked.

There were 10 murders in Ottawa in 2012, all in the suburbs except for one. Three of these were shootings. One was a gang-related shooting.

Several victims had Muslim-type names, which raises the possibility of racism, gang-violence, or honour killings. The sole gang-related killing victim had an Muslim-type name (he might of course be a Christian or other seeing as many of the refugees and immigrants from the Middle East and elsewhere are Christians or other non-Muslim religionists). Race plays a small role in Canadian murders, even in large cities where most of the young population are non-whites. The gangs are often racially integrated, geographic rather than class or race determined.

As you can see, the murders were very evenly spread out by population. Ottawa has no ghetto. Even Chinatown was largely Irish not that long ago, then Chinese, Italian, Indian, communities moved in. Little Italy is basically a street (with two names, Corso Italiano and Bronson Avenue).

Canada's immigration rules are pragmatic and employment-oriented. Immigrants are awarded points for job skills, education, refugee status, official language skills (English and French). There is an old joke dating to when the Department of Immigration and Employment existed which underscores the fact that the Canadian Government has always regarded immigration in terms of employability and what immigrants can do for us Canadians. This was true back in colonial days when the colonial authorities complained about the ignorance and uselessness of immigrants from the Mother Country and preferred sturdy peasants from Scandinavia, Germany and Eastern Europe to British cockneys and orphans.

http://blogs.ottawacitizen.com/2012/12/06/graphics-ottawa-area-homic id es-in-2012/

In the US violent crime is almost always seen in terms of race and poverty. In reality, of course, most of the poor or working poor are white, and so are most of the murders. There is a disproportionate risk of murder among the poor, the lower class, non-whites, youth, and males but since these populations are heavily concentrated it is easy to ignore the fact that most murders are domestic, men killing women and children, often in their homes.

There's a disproportion among the victims and killers in Canada, but it is much less than the US because Canada has minimized the causes of poverty and violence to a greater degree than the US.

As long as you think about problems the wrong way, they do not go away. You can't fix problems without knowing and acknowledging facts. And in the US, politics ensure the facts are ignored by right and left, all parties and all classes.

For example, the number one form of violent death by far is suicide but this seldom enters into political debate or action. And guns do kill people. They make suicide and homicide so much cheaper, easier, and more likely that it is impossible to not blame the availability and low cost of handguns for much of the annual holocaust of young men and others.

In Canada, statistics are not even kept on race with regards to things where American statistics are always broken down by race, age, and sex. This might be political correctness, but in a world where life chances were truly equal and opportunities truly abundant for all, race would not count for a dried fig.

The pie chart is a lie. Chicago is just a rhetorical tool for pulling the wool over your eyes, sheeple! Don't believe in Chicago. It's a myth. It doesn't really exist.
 
2014-02-02 03:31:58 PM

Oldiron_79: I blame El Niño


And well you might. The Pentagon has taken climate change very seriously. They recognize the role that climate plays in violence, domestic and internationals. Their studies, both secret and public acknowledge that a hotter world will be a more violent world.

Many explanations have been given for the soar of drugs and violence from the 1960s to the 1990s: economic, political, cultural, demographic.

But climate probably played a role. More fine days, more people outdoors to commit crimes and suffer from them.

In Canada, there is only one type of crime that is more common than in the US: burglaries. These happen in the winter when other crimes are dampened by the weather and when many Canadians are not using their summer cottages or in their primary residence. Millions of Canadians leave their property for the sunny South, some for days, some for weeks or months.

El Nino is no doubt a real player in the crime statistics. Where the effects encourage extreme weather, El Nino years keep people at home. They do not travel as much because of bad or extreme weather. They mind their business and cocoon.

So your jest, like many jokes, contains a seed of truth.

It has been said that the weather kept Canada out of the big time. It also helps to keep Canada away from the big crime. As the weather has shifted due to climate change over the last 30-40 years, Canada has seen a rise in crimes such as marijuana farming and street violence. Some of this is due to demographics (the Baby Boom increased the number of youths of criminal age (16-25). Some of this is due to other factors, such as economics--double incomes being required to live the middle class dream except for the very well paid employees, there were more latch-key kids. There was also a lot more to steal, a lot more drugs to pay for, and so forth.

But never underestimate the power of two or three degrees on the average temperature. Weather gets into everything, including air-conditioned conference rooms. You can control the temperature easily enough, but there is still air pressure and often humidity to make the peace negotiations harder.

It's a good thing we have Geneva, Switzerland and don't have to hold major conferences in Jakarat all of the time. Usually it is only climate or development talk shops that go to developing country destinations and posh tropical resort hotels.
 
2014-02-02 03:35:00 PM
Whoops! Jakarta, Indonesia. Hot, humid, and at sea level. A bad place for violent crime but the capital of a future economic powerhouse when China and India and Brazil outsource their busy work.
 
2014-02-02 03:58:17 PM
Yep!!!! Lived there almost 15 years (moved to VA a few months ago), and anyone there can tell you that when it warms up, murders and overall crime skyrocket. 2012, when the winter virtually ended in February, is a prime example. Good to hear it's down though, it was farking ridiculous post recession.

Just wait though, the gangs are gonna more than make up for lost time once it warms up!!

Chicago still has many many more problems to deal with in the meantime.
 
2014-02-02 09:27:19 PM
I live in Ann Arbor and our crime was way down last month compared to 2013.    I for one welcome our new Vortexy Overlords.
 
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