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(Slashdot)   Princeton researchers to Facebook: According to our new model, you're doomed. Facebook to Princeton researchers: By your own logic, *you're* doomed   (slashdot.org) divider line 64
    More: Ironic, Facebook, research papers, Google Trends, Google Scholar, planetarium  
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2834 clicks; posted to Geek » on 24 Jan 2014 at 3:00 PM (33 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-01-24 01:38:33 PM
Well played.
 
2014-01-24 01:48:52 PM
According to Facebook, there's no difference between a data mining site and a prestigious university.
 
2014-01-24 01:54:04 PM

RedPhoenix122: According to Facebook, there's no difference between a data mining site and a prestigious university.


According to Princeton, there's no difference between "number of times something is Googled" and "number of times something is used."

Which means I'm not using Fark.com right now.
 
2014-01-24 02:06:07 PM

lennavan: RedPhoenix122: According to Facebook, there's no difference between a data mining site and a prestigious university.

According to Princeton, there's no difference between "number of times something is Googled" and "number of times something is used."

Which means I'm not using Fark.com right now.


According to Princeton, there is no difference between a social media site and an infectious disease.  So at least Princeton got that one right.
 
2014-01-24 02:39:45 PM
Snarking past the graveyard.
 
2014-01-24 02:55:21 PM

RedPhoenix122: According to Facebook, there's no difference between a data mining site and a prestigious university.


Sounds about right.  Probably more embarrassing drunk moments at Princeton.
 
2014-01-24 03:11:11 PM
Facebook is trying to spin reality again.
 
2014-01-24 03:12:23 PM
We need an "oh snap" tag.
 
2014-01-24 03:13:52 PM
Why does it say "Welcome to you're 'Doom!'"? What does that even mean, and why, for God's sakes, is "Doom!" in quotes?
 
2014-01-24 03:17:43 PM
Who the fark use Google to find facebook?
 
2014-01-24 03:20:00 PM
At least from the perspective of my particular FB newsfeed, it's already well on the road to becoming the next Myspace.
 
2014-01-24 03:22:24 PM
Why not both?
 
2014-01-24 03:25:46 PM
princeton, established 1746 - 268 years of survival
facebook, established 2004 - 10 years of survival

ya, i won't hold my breath for either of them to go away soon, but my money would be on princeton lasting longer. do websites ever really die though? is myspace still 'alive'?
 
2014-01-24 03:30:13 PM

A Leaf in Fall: Why does it say "Welcome to you're 'Doom!'"? What does that even mean, and why, for God's sakes, is "Doom!" in quotes?


Because you signed off on the proofs?
 
2014-01-24 03:30:21 PM
THAT is why Facebook isnt going anywhere.  Smart people doing awesome things.
 
2014-01-24 03:33:17 PM

divgradcurl: princeton, established 1746 - 268 years of survival
facebook, established 2004 - 10 years of survival

ya, i won't hold my breath for either of them to go away soon, but my money would be on princeton lasting longer. do websites ever really die though? is myspace still 'alive'?


I had a website that died.

/ might be because I suck, never can tell.
 
2014-01-24 03:35:37 PM
Brilliant.

I would have just gone with a snarky "Yeah, we're so popular that people don't need a search engine to get here anymore; that sounds really bad for us", but this is much better.
 
2014-01-24 03:37:38 PM

forgotmydamnusername: At least from the perspective of my particular FB newsfeed, it's already well on the road to becoming the next Myspace.


Myspace died because it didn't do anything to improve its service.  Facebook isn't falling into that same trap.  Unfortunately.
 
2014-01-24 03:38:52 PM
Ok, that was pretty funny.
 
2014-01-24 03:39:32 PM

gingerjet: forgotmydamnusername: At least from the perspective of my particular FB newsfeed, it's already well on the road to becoming the next Myspace.

Myspace died because it didn't do anything to improve its service.  Facebook isn't falling into that same trap.  Unfortunately.


Once autoplay videos start, it may hurt a lot. And young people are leaving because of the old people on it. So it may happen, but there's not much else to take its place at the moment
 
2014-01-24 03:41:12 PM
I was kind of hoping to see my friend (a FB data scientist) cited in that article, but no. He only gets to tell us about creepy Facebook things.
 
2014-01-24 03:43:10 PM
Stopped using it last April, one of the best decisions I ever made.
 
2014-01-24 03:46:41 PM

RedPhoenix122: According to Facebook, there's no difference between a data mining site and a prestigious university.


An organization employing hundreds or thousands of people with the goal of meticulously collecting data to be used to further the prestige of the organization for the purpose of attracting more people, to be used for economic gain, to resolve the curiosities of people through time consuming processes, and foster a community of the reckless young.

Does this describe Facebook or a university?
 
2014-01-24 03:48:01 PM

machoprogrammer: gingerjet: forgotmydamnusername: At least from the perspective of my particular FB newsfeed, it's already well on the road to becoming the next Myspace.

Myspace died because it didn't do anything to improve its service.  Facebook isn't falling into that same trap.  Unfortunately.

Once autoplay videos start, it may hurt a lot. And young people are leaving because of the old people on it. So it may happen, but there's not much else to take its place at the moment


Twitter and Instagram, possibly. You never know, Google could get their shiat together, too. Stranger things have happened. The only content I see posted on FB these days, other than advertising, all seems to come from the same 3 people.
 
2014-01-24 03:58:43 PM

machoprogrammer: gingerjet: forgotmydamnusername: At least from the perspective of my particular FB newsfeed, it's already well on the road to becoming the next Myspace.

Myspace died because it didn't do anything to improve its service.  Facebook isn't falling into that same trap.  Unfortunately.

Once autoplay videos start, it may hurt a lot. And young people are leaving because of the old people on it. So it may happen, but there's not much else to take its place at the moment


This assumes there's a place to be taken that couldn't already be filled with anything so fancy as a email list.  Social media sites were always a dime a dozen and Facebook continues to exist because it came along at a fortunate time with the right business model (such as it is).
So, yes, its very big right now.


I think that as our devices evolve, facebook will probably fall out of favor to whatever's next. The blog roll isn't a very efficient way to deal with the hundreds of contacts, movements, media sources and businesses that want users attention.
People simply get tired of being ad spammed, or putting data out there to be mined, when there are always exciting new ways to soothe their desire for extroversion.

In a decade we'll probably not care about what facebook was. It'll be all about augmented reality social apps.
 
2014-01-24 04:04:53 PM
According to my calculations, they're already gone.  They only see what they want to see.  They don't know they're dead.
 
2014-01-24 04:10:32 PM

way south: machoprogrammer: gingerjet: forgotmydamnusername: At least from the perspective of my particular FB newsfeed, it's already well on the road to becoming the next Myspace.

Myspace died because it didn't do anything to improve its service.  Facebook isn't falling into that same trap.  Unfortunately.

Once autoplay videos start, it may hurt a lot. And young people are leaving because of the old people on it. So it may happen, but there's not much else to take its place at the moment

This assumes there's a place to be taken that couldn't already be filled with anything so fancy as a email list.  Social media sites were always a dime a dozen and Facebook continues to exist because it came along at a fortunate time with the right business model (such as it is).
So, yes, its very big right now.

I think that as our devices evolve, facebook will probably fall out of favor to whatever's next. The blog roll isn't a very efficient way to deal with the hundreds of contacts, movements, media sources and businesses that want users attention.
People simply get tired of being ad spammed, or putting data out there to be mined, when there are always exciting new ways to soothe their desire for extroversion.

In a decade we'll probably not care about what facebook was. It'll be all about augmented reality social apps copied by Facebook, developed by Facebook, or developed by companies that were later purchased by Facebook.


FTFY.  I don't see it happening.
 
2014-01-24 04:13:32 PM

drjekel_mrhyde: Who the fark use Google to find facebook?


your gradmother?
 
2014-01-24 04:14:03 PM

drjekel_mrhyde: Who the fark use Google to find facebook?


I do. I use Google to get everywhere, no matter how often I go there. I hate typing things in the address bar. Google corrects for typos.
 
2014-01-24 04:14:38 PM
Why does facebook's retort look like it's missing data? If Princeton's papers randomly vary from 2 to 5%, it would easy to make that graph with selecting which years to show.

Which is NOT something Princeton did with Facebook Google searches.
 
2014-01-24 04:23:35 PM
and in a final coup de grace, they entered "Princeton" into Google Trends. In all three cases, "Princeton" had declined in usage over the past few years.

"Princeton" isn't a social network. The Princeton scholars are theorizing that things like facebook follow a social pattern, one that is modeled closely with disease.

Since the facebook guys are too stupid to get this, I really hope the Princeton guys are right.
 
2014-01-24 04:28:49 PM

ikanreed: Facebook is trying to spin reality again.


Their point is "Is 'normalized weekly search queries' a valid proxy for determining our business' long-term outlook any more than 'Princeton publications' is for Princeton University's long-term outlook?" ...
 
2014-01-24 04:30:47 PM
When I click on the Options button of NoScript, all I ever see is "Allow Princeton.edu".

/Okay, there's also "Dukesucks.drew.fark.com"
 
2014-01-24 04:32:02 PM

impaler: and in a final coup de grace, they entered "Princeton" into Google Trends. In all three cases, "Princeton" had declined in usage over the past few years.

"Princeton" isn't a social network. The Princeton scholars are theorizing that things like facebook follow a social pattern, one that is modeled closely with disease.

Since the facebook guys are too stupid to get this, I really hope the Princeton guys are right.


Ivy League schools  are as much social networks as they are educational institutes, perhaps even more so, and have been far longer than Facebook has been around.  Just not in the digital sense.
 
2014-01-24 04:33:05 PM

gameshowhost: ikanreed: Facebook is trying to spin reality again.

Their point is "Is 'normalized weekly search queries' a valid proxy for determining our business' long-term outlook any more than 'Princeton publications' is for Princeton University's long-term outlook?" ...


Yes, yes it is.  The early indicators were flagging at the beginning of last year.  Things like "Youth signup" were down.   They're panicking because the people they really don't want to leave, advertisers, might catch on the it's not as valuable a source as it once was.
 
2014-01-24 04:34:45 PM

impaler: and in a final coup de grace, they entered "Princeton" into Google Trends. In all three cases, "Princeton" had declined in usage over the past few years.

"Princeton" isn't a social network. The Princeton scholars are theorizing that things like facebook follow a social pattern, one that is modeled closely with disease.

Since the facebook guys are too stupid to get this, I really hope the Princeton guys are right.



The Facebook "scholars" are theorizing that counting the number of google searches for "Facebook" is a piss poor way to measure the activity and popularity of Facebook.

Since you are too stupid to get this, I really hope people make fun of you.
 
2014-01-24 04:40:11 PM

Mytch: impaler: and in a final coup de grace, they entered "Princeton" into Google Trends. In all three cases, "Princeton" had declined in usage over the past few years.

"Princeton" isn't a social network. The Princeton scholars are theorizing that things like facebook follow a social pattern, one that is modeled closely with disease.

Since the facebook guys are too stupid to get this, I really hope the Princeton guys are right.

Ivy League schools  are as much social networks as they are educational institutes, perhaps even more so, and have been far longer than Facebook has been around.  Just not in the digital sense.


Ivy League schools didn't grow virally, though; Facebook did. Princeton's central premise is that, much like when your friends started using Facebook you did as well, when your friends stop using Facebook, you will as well. While social behavior can influence higher education choices, it hardly has the direct relationship a social network does. It's a rare person that wants to go to Princeton only because their friends are going, and conversely, it's a rare person who wants to go to Princeton but will turn down a slot solely because their friends aren't going.
I think Facebook's saving grace will be the fact that by now it is heavily integrated with the web's basic user model.
 
2014-01-24 04:44:04 PM

Mytch: Ivy League schools  are as much social networks as they are educational institutes,


No they're not.

Ivy League schools CONTAIN social networks. They are not themselves one. Not like facebook.
 
2014-01-24 04:49:28 PM

lennavan: The Facebook "scholars" are theorizing that counting the number of google searches for "Facebook" is a piss poor way to measure the activity and popularity of Facebook.

Since you are too stupid to get this, I really hope people make fun of you.


Google Trends for Myspace:
growlersoftware.com
And something you're too stupid to understand is the Facebook "scholars" are PRAYING that counting the number of google searches for "Facebook" is a piss poor way to measure.
 
2014-01-24 04:52:47 PM

impaler: And something you're too stupid to understand is the Facebook "scholars" are PRAYING that counting the number of google searches for "Facebook" is a piss poor way to measure.


Well, social network popularity also comes from the appearance of popularity too, so it's in their best interest to tell everyone "everything is fine, no one thinks facebook is played out"
 
2014-01-24 04:58:57 PM
Here's a weird one.

"Atoms" has a seasonal interest. Spikes in September when kids go back to school (I presume) and falls off in the summer.

Link
 
2014-01-24 05:05:06 PM
FTFA: "Facebook's scientists then inputted the term "air" into Google Trends and found that it, too, had declined over the past few years: 'Our projections show that by the year 2060 there will be no air left."'"

Hmmm...

How Trends data is normalized...
Normalized means that sets of search data are divided by a common variable, like total searches, to cancel out the variable's effect on the data.

Link

So it looks like "Princeton" and "air" searches aren't decreasing. There are just more searches over all.

FTFA: "Not all research is created equal, the posting concludes."

Indeed.
 
2014-01-24 05:05:55 PM

impaler: Mytch: Ivy League schools  are as much social networks as they are educational institutes,

No they're not.

Ivy League schools CONTAIN social networks. They are not themselves one. Not like facebook.


I'd argue the opposite actually.  Facebook is not a social network.  It's a framework for facilitating existing social networks. Being on Facebook has never been (for the vast majority of people) sufficient impetus for creating a connection to another person.  Being from Princeton, however, often is. It's a legitimate network in which connections are not dependent on pre-existing connections.  Facebook, to the contrary, considers connections within Facebook which don't exist outside illegitimate, which is demonstrated by them occasionally inquiring, when adding a friend, whether you know this person outside of Facebook.

qorkfiend:

Ivy League schools didn't grow virally, though; Facebook did. Princeton's central premise is that, much like when your friends started using Facebook you did as well, when your friends stop using Facebook, you will as well. While social behavior can influence higher education choices, it hardly has the direct relationship a social network does. It's a rare person that wants to go to Princeton only because their friends are going, and conversely, it's a rare person who wants to go to Princeton but will turn down a slot solely because their friends aren't going.
I think Facebook's saving grace will be the fact that by now it is heavily integrated with the web's basic user model.


Certainly it's true that Ivy League schools have not grown virally.  If anything, I would compare them to early Facebook which was university (and even campus) specific on who it included. Of course, people don't go to Ivy League because their friends are going, however as I mentioned in the previous reply, that's because Ivy League schools  are networks, not a framework for facilitating an existing network. High quality education is a great advantage, and depending on how you take advantage of either, the strong social connection derived from Ivy League schools are also a significant advantage.
 
2014-01-24 05:12:56 PM

impaler: lennavan: The Facebook "scholars" are theorizing that counting the number of google searches for "Facebook" is a piss poor way to measure the activity and popularity of Facebook.

Since you are too stupid to get this, I really hope people make fun of you.

Google Trends for Myspace:
[growlersoftware.com image 816x465]
And something you're too stupid to understand is the Facebook "scholars" are PRAYING that counting the number of google searches for "Facebook" is a piss poor way to measure.


Here are some more Google Trends:

You'll see Fark.com died around 2010:  http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Fark
You'll see Microsoft only has about 5-6 years before it is gone:  http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=microsoft
You'll see the very odd death and rebirth of the Super Bowl on an annual basis http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=super%20bowl
Obama stopped being president about a year ago: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Obama
Chris Christie is perhaps the current president http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Chris%20Christie
Instagram is going to be around forever  http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=instagram
Princeton will soon cease to exist http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=princeton
Same goes for Harvard http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Harvard
Look, cancer is slowly being cured http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=cancer
 
2014-01-24 05:16:30 PM
Looks like FB Data Scientists use ggplot2.

/obscure?
 
2014-01-24 05:22:24 PM

lennavan: Here are some more Google Trends:

You'll see Fark.com died around 2010:  http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Fark
You'll see Microsoft only has about 5-6 years before it is gone:  http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=microsoft
You'll see the very odd death and rebirth of the Super Bowl on an annual basis http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=super%20bowl
Obama stopped being president about a year ago: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Obama
Chris Christie is perhaps the current president http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Chris%20Christie
Instagram is going to be around forever  http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=instagram
Princeton will soon cease to exist http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=princeton
Same goes for Harvard http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Harvard
Look, cancer is slowly being cured http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=cancer


The Princeton scientists weren't extrapolating on NORMALIZED data like you are.
 
2014-01-24 05:38:54 PM
This talk kind of touches on the statistical analysis of networks
Link
 
2014-01-24 05:44:23 PM

divgradcurl: princeton, established 1746 - 268 years of survival
facebook, established 2004 - 10 years of survival

ya, i won't hold my breath for either of them to go away soon, but my money would be on princeton lasting longer. do websites ever really die though? is myspace still 'alive'?


Myspace is under going a revival up to a point but is mostly used by musicians.
 
2014-01-24 05:56:25 PM

qorkfiend: Ivy League schools didn't grow virally, though;


Um.... actually that's exactly how schools go from "some school or whatever" to "prestigious University".  Academic reputation is built on the peer review system facilitating communication and networks between academics, which draws more academics to the institution and its validating review structure, which causes the reach of its peer review network to widen, which draws more academics etc.

They grow pretty much exactly the same way Facebook became popular, friends telling their friends and so on, albeit professional relationships were the vector more than pure social ones.

You're probably missing this because you're thinking in terms of undergraduate students... who, with all respect to your degree and so on, have absolutely nothing to do with the success or reputation of the institution in general.  They're success indicators at best, they don't actually contribute meaningfully.
 
2014-01-24 06:28:24 PM

Jim_Callahan: qorkfiend: Ivy League schools didn't grow virally, though;

Um.... actually that's exactly how schools go from "some school or whatever" to "prestigious University".  Academic reputation is built on the peer review system facilitating communication and networks between academics, which draws more academics to the institution and its validating review structure, which causes the reach of its peer review network to widen, which draws more academics etc.

They grow pretty much exactly the same way Facebook became popular, friends telling their friends and so on, albeit professional relationships were the vector more than pure social ones.

You're probably missing this because you're thinking in terms of undergraduate students... who, with all respect to your degree and so on, have absolutely nothing to do with the success or reputation of the institution in general.  They're success indicators at best, they don't actually contribute meaningfully.


....Until they grow up into old farts who like having things with their name on it
 
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