Vaneshi: Facebook will eventually die just like MySpace did (it still exists but does anyone really go there?) when something better comes along. A lot of social websites such as Fark were quite heavily hoovered by Reddit, as were Digg users and so on. Something will appear to replace Reddit sooner or later.I am rather looking forward to those two sites entering their "look at me I'm still relevant" phase of existence as they haemorrhage users. It was really quite amusing when MySpace & Digg went through it.
Trik: it always felt like a fadonce upon a time there were geocities and like sites, then myspace, then facebookso where is the migration heading now?Fark and Slashdot seems to be going through something similarUsed to be on Fark that a photoshop thread would have hundreds of entries. Now it unusual for it to break 40 or 50And the term sllashdotted is a thing of the pastIn Slashdot's case I think it's because the site was sold and people moved onIn Fark's case I *think* people are migrating to reditt(sp?) I really haven't been to the site unless an external link takes me there
phenn: Spiralmonkey: As soon as it became somewhere for parents and grandparents to hang out it's days were numbered.Not at all. They are the ones with discretionary income, yes? Those are the people advertisers want to reach. Ad revenues keep it humming along. Win-win.My son, his girlfriend and most of his friends have closed their accounts, so, yes. Younger people are leaving. People my age and older are staying, though.
gameshowhost: Possibly. But curve-fitting doesn't always work out so nicely... for example, the past few months' dropoff could be abnormal and the curve could actually be following something more like this:[img.fark.net image 800x600]
HaywoodJablonski: My takeaway from these threads is that too many of you have either never left your hometown or your friends are incredibly boring.I have really good friends and family all across the globe. Several of them are witty and funny, so my feed generally keeps me entertained and informed.
Milo Minderbinder: That's exactly why it's dying: young people staying away in droves. It's something the tobacco industry figured out years ago: old customers die off and must be replaced by the young.
phenn: Milo Minderbinder: That's exactly why it's dying: young people staying away in droves. It's something the tobacco industry figured out years ago: old customers die off and must be replaced by the young.I understand your point. Mind you, I don't think there will be a mass die-off of 30-50 year olds any time soon.I suspect FB will evolve to a degree, but always remain somewhat popular. Maybe not a behemoth. But popular.
dready zim: Reddit seems to be gaining popularity from the list of sites I have seen mentioned on other sites. People want traffic from reddit.
FreakyBunny: The way they collected their data is flawed. People are using smartphone and tablet aps more and more and they don't require a Google search to get to Facebook.
optimistic_cynic: dready zim: Reddit seems to be gaining popularity from the list of sites I have seen mentioned on other sites. People want traffic from reddit.I can't understand that at all, the site, it's so ugly...I won't subject myself to that.
dready zim: Ah, true facebook believers will just point out this is `a pause` and that the highest search values are all in the last two years which is proof that they will continue to rise. It is pointed out that 10 out of the top ten highest months have been in the last two years. Look at the rise between 2005 and 2011 they say, that cannot have been natural and that data means we will suffer facebook saturation by 2016 (this will be moved to 2050 in the year 2015) and every search on the internet will either be on or about facebook.Facebook deniers say that there is a flat or even possibly negative trend now but this is refuted by those who look at the true data and called cherry picking as the full data set is not used which starts in 2005. There was no internet before facebook was created in 2005. Using this set the trend is undeniably positive as it started from zero and is not back to zero again.Some have pointed to the `pause` as a sign that the rise is not accelerating, this is not accepted as the current theory is that there are millions of people `trying to think of something really great` and the overall potential posts are actually increasing when there are not any new actual posts because of this `buffer zone` of users with the message window open unable to think of something to say.It is predicted that when they post the entire internet will explode.Some have pointed to napster and myspace as examples of websites where traffic has risen as quickly in the past and then fallen by itself but those were natural sites and as such they cannot be applied to facebook, which is man made. Others have accused facebook of massaging the data but this is beyond reproach as they get their figures from Google who as we all know are totally trustworthy. If you deny the data from google you deny the holocaust as they are exactly the same thing, not even a metaphor or analogy. Exactly the same thing. The holocaust IS the data from Google. The data from Google IS the holocaust.In a few short years children will have to read about other websites on facebook. Web servers will drown under the weight of traffic. Local data droughts will occur as the pipes become clogged with facebook and other places will suffer floods of data leading to denial of service crashes on a wide scale. Some small servers in the pacific ocean have already crashed.This is not hyperbole, it`s true, a small server has already crashed on an island in the south pacific.Won`t someone think of the children on facebook?
MisterTweak: I don't have a FB account and never will, but I would not underestimate it any more than I'd predict McDonalds will go out of business next year. (actually, if you click on the "projection.." button on the google trends graph the article is based on, it ... um... shows it actually on the increase.
farkeruk: MisterTweak: I don't have a FB account and never will, but I would not underestimate it any more than I'd predict McDonalds will go out of business next year. (actually, if you click on the "projection.." button on the google trends graph the article is based on, it ... um... shows it actually on the increase.The difference is that McDonalds delivers a product, and that product is consistent and good (if you like Big Macs).The problem with Facebook and all social networks is that the reason for joining are the other people there. Online social networks have the same problem that nightclubs have - if you're the hippest nightclub around, you won't be for long because the unhip people will want to be where the hip people are, and once they do, the hip people won't want to hang around because why would a hip person want to hang out with an unhip person. Then, the unhip people won't want to go there because there aren't any hip people, so they move on to where the hip people went.Take LinkedIn - I used to get requests from really interesting people for my line of work. Now, I get requests from companies in India trying to sell me software. They've realized there's lots of people on there, and are trying to make money from it, but are ruining the experience for me with their presence. The very success of social networks can be what kills them.
Zombalupagus: critical mass
Monkeyfark Ridiculous: scottydoesntknow: (only China guy would be affected, and I could still e-mail him).Not the preferred nomenclature, dude.
nohit: Was curious what the curve would look like for Fark, so I plotted it:
DeaH: FreakyBunny: The way they collected their data is flawed. People are using smartphone and tablet aps more and more and they don't require a Google search to get to Facebook.Yep. My 87-year-old uncle uses a bookmark. Why would anyone Google Facebook?
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