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(io9)   Researchers predict Facebook will die "like a disease". With a graph and everything   (io9.com) divider line 112
    More: Obvious, Facebook, diseases, researchers, infectious diseases, Google Trends, search query, online social networks  
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8821 clicks; posted to Main » on 23 Jan 2014 at 5:18 AM (38 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-01-23 01:53:17 PM  

FreakyBunny: The way they collected their data is flawed. People are using smartphone and tablet aps more and more and they don't require a Google search to get to Facebook.


... wait, what? *checks article*
Dafuq, guys. Equating "Everyone either has Facebook bookmarked or knows how to type facebook.com" to "Facebook is dying off!" is a tiny bit of a stretch.

I would not expect a steep die-off curve. FB will stick around as long as ad revnue holds out. It'll exist for quite some time after users have mostly abandoned it for the next new thing, clinging to those auto-logins and homepage loads after human eyeballs have ceased to care.
 
2014-01-23 05:03:23 PM  

meat0918: fusillade762: meat0918: The article writer states that Facebook is too ingrained as a pr/ advertising for business. Personally, get too many ads in there, it will drive people away.

It is part of a long list of what drove me away.  Once my feed became nothing but ads from things I'd liked, it was a short while later I turned off my account.

Facebook has ads?

I made the mistake of liking some businesses, and their posts are nothing but ads.  Also at the time, Facebook was allowing pages you liked to post as you as well.


BINGO - now they are charging businesses to post if they want over 15% to be seen.  Ding ding, it's all about the money.  Businesses are getting pissed off therefore they will leave, they leave the money leaves, the money leaves, Facebook closes. Also a lot of the times you actually gave those apps and likes to post as you - privacy settings need to be checked often.
 
2014-01-23 05:14:33 PM  
They will lose a lot of their traffic but only because nothing ever really changes except their ways to advertise to the users.  They haven't tried to really expand out the platform to be useful beyond what they always have been.

Google may have lost the social media race by a longshot but they are king of monetizing their services and look to always grow them to keep "asses in seats".
 
2014-01-23 05:17:20 PM  
Has Netcraft even confirmed this, bro?
 
2014-01-23 06:20:24 PM  

scottydoesntknow: Monkeyfark Ridiculous: scottydoesntknow: (only China guy would be affected, and I could still e-mail him).

Not the preferred nomenclature, dude.

He's not Chinese. He's American and moved there 3 years ago. He's a guy, in China.



that was attempted humor
 
2014-01-23 08:39:20 PM  

Syrrh: FreakyBunny: The way they collected their data is flawed. People are using smartphone and tablet aps more and more and they don't require a Google search to get to Facebook.

... wait, what? *checks article*
Dafuq, guys. Equating "Everyone either has Facebook bookmarked or knows how to type facebook.com" to "Facebook is dying off!" is a tiny bit of a stretch.

I would not expect a steep die-off curve. FB will stick around as long as ad revnue holds out. It'll exist for quite some time after users have mostly abandoned it for the next new thing, clinging to those auto-logins and homepage loads after human eyeballs have ceased to care.


Not sure of you're agreeing with me....

FTFA: "The authors have based their models on data that reflect the number of times "Facebook" has been typed into Google as a search term. Checking Google Trends reveals that these weekly "search queues" reached a peak in December of 2012, and have since begun to level off.

In other words, about the time tablets started flying off the shelves. If they based their model of Google searches from a pre-tablet, emerging smartphone era, they may be overestimating the connection between popularity and new, widely embraced ways of connecting to Facebook. People don't need to search for it. It's already there. Even Windows 8 (for the poor saps saddled with it) has an app like button for it.
 
2014-01-23 09:27:12 PM  

dready zim: don`t last long on a properly moderated forum...


Which in no way shape or form describes reddit, where the average age of a user appears to be 8 - 13 and your chance of getting even a sensible conversation well of the beaten track is nil.

And yes sites want traffic from Reddit, but then again at one point in history people wanted traffic from Digg and Fark and Slashdot, even MySpace.

There is a pattern there and only a fool would think that somehow a given site (be it this one, or any other) that is dependant on users for its content won't eventually burn or be replaced.
 
2014-01-23 09:36:27 PM  
Facebook may be around for a while, but I think people are getting tired of it.  (This from a 40+ guy.)  I just deactivated my account this week after considering it for quite a while.

Why?

Because I'm tired of being tracked. When I discovered Facebook was tracking "self censorship" with a goal of preventing it (thank you FARK) ..I was done.  Good lord, can you imagine everyone failing to self censor??  There would be some awesome material on Fark, but also a good deal of shootings/ beatings/ breakups too.  I don't need someone to track when the angels of my better nature make me reconsider posting something inherently douchy or offensive or just plain stupid. 

I had a lot of FB friends that had a variety of political perspectives...and I got tired of arguing...for some folks it was an article of faith or belief.  For others it was whatever crap they found on the interwebs...They're all good folks, and we're all friends outside the FB arena, but sometimes you find yourself either faced with an argument you'll never win because of the persons belief system, or you find yourself spending hours digging up facts to support your argument when discussing with your more rational friends. 

When I think about my very close friends, we hang out on occasion, drink a few beers, maybe toss around a few political ideas, then go home.  I have maybe 2 REALLY close friends and about 8 mostly-close friends...I had 82-odd 'friends' or family on Facebook.. It started to become the awkward Thanksgiving / Christmas dinner with someone being "drunk uncle Fred" every time  I logged on.. And yeah, I loved the pics of the kids...but I really don't need the endless selfies or food porn.

I think Facebook will die...maybe not as a disease as the article describes, maybe not as fast as the article suggests, but it will die.  The phone and the cell phone were revolutions too..but they didn't give you the ability to talk to all your friends and relatives (and hear their opinions) simultaneously.   It's this exposure, and the constantly changing privacy settings that will eventually reduce Facebook to Myspace levels.
 
2014-01-24 02:16:14 AM  

MisterTweak: I don't have a FB account and never will, but I would not underestimate it any more than I'd predict McDonalds will go out of business next year. (actually, if you click on the "projection.." button on the google trends graph the article is based on, it ... um... shows it actually on the increase.


Yeah, but saying "Facebook will continue to be read" doesent get readers to click the link and generate revenue.

The internet is full of stupidity for clicks sake.

/ some scientists say...
 
2014-01-24 11:16:44 AM  

Yankees Team Gynecologist: Zombalupagus: critical mass

I keep hearing this phrase with regards to social networking.  Aside from the obvious concept that more users is better, does it really mean anything?  Yes, everyone else needs to be on a network for it to be useful, but the barriers to joining/switching are virtually nonexistent


Yes, it's still important. For example I originally switched from MySpace to FB because more people were posting events such as club nights there. Someone may come along with a service that's better, but until they reach a critical mass of people promoting their events on it, it's just not going to be as useful to me.
 
2014-01-24 11:53:10 AM  

Zombalupagus: Yes, it's still important. For example I originally switched from MySpace to FB because more people were posting events such as club nights there. Someone may come along with a service that's better, but until they reach a critical mass of people promoting their events on it, it's just not going to be as useful to me.


Sure, but that's your personal "critical mass." Which varies from person to person.  So overall it's still just a smooth gradient where more is better, but it's not like there's a line beyond which near-immortality is achieved.
 
2014-01-24 11:59:19 AM  

Yankees Team Gynecologist: Zombalupagus: Yes, it's still important. For example I originally switched from MySpace to FB because more people were posting events such as club nights there. Someone may come along with a service that's better, but until they reach a critical mass of people promoting their events on it, it's just not going to be as useful to me.

Sure, but that's your personal "critical mass." Which varies from person to person.  So overall it's still just a smooth gradient where more is better, but it's not like there's a line beyond which near-immortality is achieved.


Furthermore, even if most people do have a similar point where they look around and feel like there's "enough" activity there to make it the place to be, the fact that (like I said earlier) there are no barriers to joining and posting on others doesn't make it much of a wall or spike.

At best, the notion of "critical mass" only applies to the era when all social networks looked pretty much the same (Friendster, MySpace, etc.).  Now we have things like Twitter, Instagram, and Tumblr, which offer different kinds of interaction and can all be used simultaneously in different-feeling ways.  If/when FB dies it will be because those other "kinds" are just more conducive to what people want to use, and actual FB activity has gradually petered out.  Like I said earlier, it won't be a conscious decision to jump ship.
 
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