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(io9)   Researchers predict Facebook will die "like a disease". With a graph and everything   (io9.com) divider line 112
    More: Obvious, Facebook, diseases, researchers, infectious diseases, Google Trends, search query, online social networks  
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8821 clicks; posted to Main » on 23 Jan 2014 at 5:18 AM (34 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-01-23 06:45:42 AM
it always felt like a fad
once upon a time there were geocities and like sites, then myspace, then facebook
so where is the migration heading now?


Fark and Slashdot seems to be going through something similar
Used to be on Fark that a photoshop thread would have hundreds of entries. Now it unusual for it to break 40 or 50
And the term sllashdotted is a thing of the past
In Slashdot's case I think it's because the site was sold and people moved on

In Fark's case I *think* people are migrating to reditt(sp?) I really haven't been to the site unless an external link takes me there
 
2014-01-23 06:48:03 AM
img.gawkerassets.com
Ah, true facebook believers will just point out this is `a pause` and that the highest search values are all in the last two years which is proof that they will continue to rise. It is pointed out that 10 out of the top ten highest months have been in the last two years. Look at the rise between 2005 and 2011 they say, that cannot have been natural and that data means we will suffer facebook saturation by 2016 (this will be moved to 2050 in the year 2015)  and every search on the internet will either be on or about facebook.

Facebook deniers say that there is a flat or even possibly negative trend now but this is refuted by those who look at the true data and called cherry picking as the full data set is not used which starts in 2005. There was no internet before facebook was created in 2005. Using this set the trend is undeniably positive as it started from zero and is not back to zero again.

Some have pointed to the `pause` as a sign that the rise is not accelerating, this is not accepted as the current theory is that there are millions of people `trying to think of something really great` and the overall potential posts are actually increasing when there are not any new actual posts because of this `buffer zone` of users with the message window open unable to think of something to say.

It is predicted that when they post the entire internet will explode.

Some have pointed to napster and myspace as examples of websites where traffic has risen as quickly in the past and then fallen by itself but those were natural sites and as such they cannot be applied to facebook, which is man made. Others have accused facebook of massaging the data but this is beyond reproach as they get their figures from Google who as we all know are totally trustworthy. If you deny the data from google you deny the holocaust as they are exactly the same thing, not even a metaphor or analogy. Exactly the same thing. The holocaust IS the data from Google. The data from Google IS the holocaust.

In a few short years children will have to read about other websites on facebook. Web servers will drown under the weight of traffic. Local data droughts will occur as the pipes become clogged with facebook and other places will suffer floods of data leading to denial of service crashes on a wide scale. Some small servers in the pacific ocean have already crashed.

This is not hyperbole, it`s true, a small server has already crashed on an island in the south pacific.

Won`t someone think of the children on facebook?
 
2014-01-23 06:56:57 AM

Vaneshi: Facebook will eventually die just like MySpace did (it still exists but does anyone really go there?) when something better comes along.  A lot of social websites such as Fark were quite heavily hoovered by Reddit, as were Digg users and so on.  Something will appear to replace Reddit sooner or later.

I am rather looking forward to those two sites entering their "look at me I'm still relevant" phase of existence as they haemorrhage users.  It was really quite amusing when MySpace & Digg went through it.


Denier!

Trik: it always felt like a fad
once upon a time there were geocities and like sites, then myspace, then facebook
so where is the migration heading now?


Fark and Slashdot seems to be going through something similar
Used to be on Fark that a photoshop thread would have hundreds of entries. Now it unusual for it to break 40 or 50
And the term sllashdotted is a thing of the past
In Slashdot's case I think it's because the site was sold and people moved on

In Fark's case I *think* people are migrating to reditt(sp?) I really haven't been to the site unless an external link takes me there


Reddit seems to be gaining popularity from the list of sites I have seen mentioned on other sites. People want traffic from reddit.

Myself, as I see it, fark has become a site where trolls troll trolls and the rest get angry so I only visit if I want to deal with trolls or angry people. Now I just point out how stupid the conversations here usually are.

Other websites do not want traffic from Fark, The trolls and angry people kill the feel of their nice moderated forum although to be honest the trolls and angry people don`t last long on a properly moderated forum...
 
2014-01-23 06:57:56 AM
Peak Facebook? Surely you're yanking my chain.

/dropped my account before it was cool.
 
2014-01-23 07:02:01 AM

phenn: Spiralmonkey: As soon as it became somewhere for parents and grandparents to hang out it's days were numbered.

Not at all. They are the ones with discretionary income, yes? Those are the people advertisers want to reach. Ad revenues keep it humming along. Win-win.

My son, his girlfriend and most of his friends have closed their accounts, so, yes. Younger people are leaving. People my age and older are staying, though.


That's exactly why it's dying: young people staying away in droves. It's something the tobacco industry figured out years ago: old customers die off and must be replaced by the young.
 
2014-01-23 07:02:25 AM
Anyone who knows a few active 20-something's knows this to be true.
 
2014-01-23 07:06:25 AM

Trik: it always felt like a fad
once upon a time there were geocities and like sites, then myspace, then facebook
so where is the migration heading now?


Fark and Slashdot seems to be going through something similar
Used to be on Fark that a photoshop thread would have hundreds of entries. Now it unusual for it to break 40 or 50
And the term sllashdotted is a thing of the past
In Slashdot's case I think it's because the site was sold and people moved on

In Fark's case I *think* people are migrating to reditt(sp?) I really haven't been to the site unless an external link takes me there


Facebook has been better than things like geocities and myspace in that it's done a lot more to make you invested with the site with its minigames and getting involved with allowing commenting on various websites via facebook alone. With a lot of sites you may see a story that annoys you, and then some comments at the bottom which you can only reply to via a facebook profile. They also have various minigames that you can spend time with as little time wasters, which gets people into the habit of just going there all the time instead of places like newgrounds for their flash games.

They're also actively making sure they're ingrained in our culture so that it'll only really be replaced by something about the same. I feel like reddit doesn't quite do that as I don't think you can really setup public profiles on there to talk about how great you are and post constant streams of pictures and comments about how wonderful you are and all the wonderful things you're doing.
 
2014-01-23 07:07:17 AM

gameshowhost: Possibly.  But curve-fitting doesn't always work out so nicely... for example, the past few months' dropoff could be abnormal and the curve could actually be following something more like this:
[img.fark.net image 800x600]


*penis*
 
2014-01-23 07:07:50 AM

HaywoodJablonski: My takeaway from these threads is that too many of you have either never left your hometown or your friends are incredibly boring.

I have really good friends and family all across the globe. Several of them are witty and funny, so my feed generally keeps me entertained and informed.


And yet, here you are.
 
2014-01-23 07:09:15 AM
I don't understand who is investing in FB; the current P/E is 146. What the frack? Who is buying stock in a doomed company with earnings that are 1/7 of anything else on the S&P?
 
2014-01-23 07:10:23 AM
Bullshiat it will get a bailout long before that ever happens
 
2014-01-23 07:11:44 AM
Facebook was dead to me three years ago. It totally mind farks with your relationship - the constant changing of status from "in a relationship" to "it's complicated" and changing your profile pics from you and your SO to just you...all the intrusive comments from your and his 500 closest friends...all the flirting with the old girlfriends and boyfriends that are now your FB "friends." Just a totally stupid concept. Oh, and people farking uploading all kinds of pics without your permission. People you never wanted to see again (and the meth addicted side of your extended family) begging you to friend them or identify them as family. Your employer scrutinizing your personal life. Of course, this was years ago and I hadn't taken the time to figure out whatever privacy options they had at the time.
 
2014-01-23 07:12:17 AM
( ° ʖ °)
 
2014-01-23 07:15:25 AM
It'll just come back in an other iteration, just like Geocities. Really, how much are you going to share, not that many people care about you to begin with.Already harvested for gossip by news outlets, feds, down to local PDs, Should try to bait them all, from you grandparents on down.
 
2014-01-23 07:16:47 AM

Milo Minderbinder: That's exactly why it's dying: young people staying away in droves. It's something the tobacco industry figured out years ago: old customers die off and must be replaced by the young.


I understand your point. Mind you, I don't think there will be a mass die-off of 30-50 year olds any time soon.

I suspect FB will evolve to a degree, but always remain somewhat popular. Maybe not a behemoth. But popular.
 
2014-01-23 07:25:47 AM

phenn: Milo Minderbinder: That's exactly why it's dying: young people staying away in droves. It's something the tobacco industry figured out years ago: old customers die off and must be replaced by the young.

I understand your point. Mind you, I don't think there will be a mass die-off of 30-50 year olds any time soon.

I suspect FB will evolve to a degree, but always remain somewhat popular. Maybe not a behemoth. But popular.


There is also a tipping point involved. At some point, no one will be on it because no one is on it, as tautological that sounds.
 
2014-01-23 07:33:58 AM
Dinki:   endless selfies,

God, a sad thing I'm witnessing right now is someone I know who is in her 40's trying to look like another lady and they have completely different body types and facial structures. She has gotten to taking 2 to 3 selfies every farking day!  It's very sad.
 
2014-01-23 07:40:39 AM
I wonder if it will get a SMTD (Social Media Transmitted Disease) ?
 
2014-01-23 07:44:31 AM
It's like a diseased face of friendship.
 
2014-01-23 07:52:57 AM
I was just thinking about if it does die, how will I know when my friend had coffee? Or how will people be able to attention whore by posting vague statuses  such as "sad today"
 
2014-01-23 07:53:19 AM
It won't die, but it certainly could see a mass exodus of users. Especially if they implement those video ads they were talking about.

Hell, young people are already leaving because too many old people are on it.
 
2014-01-23 07:54:23 AM
so  what would a FARK-GRAPH look like...  i wonder...   :)
 
2014-01-23 07:59:05 AM
It's a graph so I believe it.
 
2014-01-23 08:01:43 AM
If facebook policies werent so creepy it would live longer...
 
2014-01-23 08:19:28 AM
Hmm, applying disease ideas to technological S-curves.

I should get out of bed and find the relevant Kurzweil graphs, but the room is too spinny. All technologies start with an idea, cost too much, get more efficient, become profitable and boom until it is over supplied, gets consolidated by the biggest players, and then ticks over until replaced or relegated. Bronze, sailing ships, water mills, printing, colonization, cotton, steel, railroads, telegraphs, oil, automobiles, aeroplanes, cinema, radio broadcast AND reception, audio records, the microchip, personal computers, and finally the internet. Anyone remember Alta-Vista?

Fads are a different beast and are more biologically modeled. Sometimes they don't really die out, they just become engrained. Disco didn't go away, there is still plenty of that 4/4 dance music out there. Hell, maybe even that was a technology type s-curve.

I'd need a cognitive psychologist to study this, but isn't the smartphone a hyper evolved pet rock?
 
2014-01-23 08:33:56 AM
Yeah, because every curve can be fit with a simple parabolic or Gaussian.....

www.physics.csbsju.edu
 
2014-01-23 08:39:14 AM
So on to Google+ then?
 
2014-01-23 08:39:19 AM
It ain't dying, it's demographic is just changing. It could easily keep going on if they focus future changes around that.
 
2014-01-23 08:41:48 AM
The kid pics and constant self-validation image macros are retarded. The political idiocy is retarded. The religious crap is retarded. Still, I get to post clever things and have a core of folks who interact with me on a level that is either mercifully superficial, or more regular and deep than their hectic lives would allow without it. If I want real human contact, I know how to get a hold of those I have an in-person friendship with. There are people I have known I never met and are friend of friends of friends that I have developed real friendships with, albeit only on facebook. Something you don't realize until they die from their long battle with cancer and you actually are very devastated.
 
2014-01-23 08:52:56 AM
I find FB to be a liability. I won't close my account, as it's a decent place to maintain contacts, but I see no real need to post statuses, photos, anything really.
 
2014-01-23 09:02:32 AM
I recently uninstalled the app from my phone and it did wonders for my productivity. I no longer worry about correcting dumbasses on their inflammatory, uninformed political posts or how random folks' pregnancies are coming along. It was more compulsion than genuine interest to check on those things. I still have an account but I'm seriously thinking about removing it because I can't find a way to make my photos, friends list, etc. completely private.
 
2014-01-23 09:05:13 AM

dready zim: Reddit seems to be gaining popularity from the list of sites I have seen mentioned on other sites. People want traffic from reddit.


I can't understand that at all, the site, it's so ugly...I won't subject myself to that.
 
2014-01-23 09:08:53 AM

FreakyBunny: The way they collected their data is flawed. People are using smartphone and tablet aps more and more and they don't require a Google search to get to Facebook.


Not to mention this thing called a "bookmark".

Their theory is that Facebook will "fail" when people quit asking Google what it is? Really? That's just called market saturation.

Facebook is useful in a way that MySpace never was. It's reached critical mass, and now in some ways it's easier to use and more useful than other forms of communication, such as email. If it dies it will be by its own hand, either by privacy settings, marketing, or bloat.
 
2014-01-23 09:13:22 AM
Hmmm, this doesn't jibe with the price of FB....it is near an all-time high.  Pump and dump maybe?   Short FB?
 
2014-01-23 09:13:53 AM

optimistic_cynic: dready zim: Reddit seems to be gaining popularity from the list of sites I have seen mentioned on other sites. People want traffic from reddit.

I can't understand that at all, the site, it's so ugly...I won't subject myself to that.


The site may be ugly but it serves a useful purpose, to wit, it keeps idiots "redditors" self-quarantined from the rest of the internet for extended periods of time.
 
2014-01-23 09:30:06 AM

dready zim: Ah, true facebook believers will just point out this is `a pause` and that the highest search values are all in the last two years which is proof that they will continue to rise. It is pointed out that 10 out of the top ten highest months have been in the last two years. Look at the rise between 2005 and 2011 they say, that cannot have been natural and that data means we will suffer facebook saturation by 2016 (this will be moved to 2050 in the year 2015)  and every search on the internet will either be on or about facebook.

Facebook deniers say that there is a flat or even possibly negative trend now but this is refuted by those who look at the true data and called cherry picking as the full data set is not used which starts in 2005. There was no internet before facebook was created in 2005. Using this set the trend is undeniably positive as it started from zero and is not back to zero again.

Some have pointed to the `pause` as a sign that the rise is not accelerating, this is not accepted as the current theory is that there are millions of people `trying to think of something really great` and the overall potential posts are actually increasing when there are not any new actual posts because of this `buffer zone` of users with the message window open unable to think of something to say.

It is predicted that when they post the entire internet will explode.

Some have pointed to napster and myspace as examples of websites where traffic has risen as quickly in the past and then fallen by itself but those were natural sites and as such they cannot be applied to facebook, which is man made. Others have accused facebook of massaging the data but this is beyond reproach as they get their figures from Google who as we all know are totally trustworthy. If you deny the data from google you deny the holocaust as they are exactly the same thing, not even a metaphor or analogy. Exactly the same thing. The holocaust IS the data from Google. The data from Google IS the holocaust.

In a few short years children will have to read about other websites on facebook. Web servers will drown under the weight of traffic. Local data droughts will occur as the pipes become clogged with facebook and other places will suffer floods of data leading to denial of service crashes on a wide scale. Some small servers in the pacific ocean have already crashed.

This is not hyperbole, it`s true, a small server has already crashed on an island in the south pacific.

Won`t someone think of the children on facebook?


WTF?

Over.
 
2014-01-23 09:39:22 AM

MisterTweak: I don't have a FB account and never will, but I would not underestimate it any more than I'd predict McDonalds will go out of business next year. (actually, if you click on the "projection.." button on the google trends graph the article is based on, it ... um... shows it actually on the increase.


The difference is that McDonalds delivers a product, and that product is consistent and good (if you like Big Macs).

The problem with Facebook and all social networks is that the reason for joining are the other people there. Online social networks have the same problem that nightclubs have - if you're the hippest nightclub around, you won't be for long because the unhip people will want to be where the hip people are, and once they do, the hip people won't want to hang around because why would a hip person want to hang out with an unhip person. Then, the unhip people won't want to go there because there aren't any hip people, so they move on to where the hip people went.

Take LinkedIn - I used to get requests from really interesting people for my line of work. Now, I get requests from companies in India trying to sell me software. They've realised there's lots of people on there, and are trying to make money from it, but are ruining the experience for me with their presence. The very success of social networks can be what kills them.
 
2014-01-23 09:40:45 AM
4.bp.blogspot.com

Facebook is not going away fast enough...
and enough with #HASHTAGS already. #dontcareaboutyourtwittercrap

/Subscribe to my news letter "middle aged guy rants about social media"
//get off my lawn...
 
2014-01-23 09:43:41 AM
GungFu: You are priceless! My first thought was: I wonder how many people won't get it? They will probably think that's Abraham Lincoln, just because his name is next to the picture. You've illustrated the stupidity of millions.
 
2014-01-23 09:46:42 AM

farkeruk: MisterTweak: I don't have a FB account and never will, but I would not underestimate it any more than I'd predict McDonalds will go out of business next year. (actually, if you click on the "projection.." button on the google trends graph the article is based on, it ... um... shows it actually on the increase.

The difference is that McDonalds delivers a product, and that product is consistent and good (if you like Big Macs).

The problem with Facebook and all social networks is that the reason for joining are the other people there. Online social networks have the same problem that nightclubs have - if you're the hippest nightclub around, you won't be for long because the unhip people will want to be where the hip people are, and once they do, the hip people won't want to hang around because why would a hip person want to hang out with an unhip person. Then, the unhip people won't want to go there because there aren't any hip people, so they move on to where the hip people went.

Take LinkedIn - I used to get requests from really interesting people for my line of work. Now, I get requests from companies in India trying to sell me software. They've realized there's lots of people on there, and are trying to make money from it, but are ruining the experience for me with their presence. The very success of social networks can be what kills them.


is the word "hip" still used ?


img.fark.net
 
2014-01-23 09:51:31 AM
I read the headline in Agent Smith's voice.

Maybe that's the cure.
 
2014-01-23 09:52:45 AM
The influx of grandparents will keep it alive.
 
2014-01-23 09:57:31 AM

Zombalupagus: critical mass


I keep hearing this phrase with regards to social networking.  Aside from the obvious concept that more users is better, does it really mean anything?  Yes, everyone else needs to be on a network for it to be useful, but the barriers to joining/switching are virtually nonexistent--much lower than changing your OS type, cable provider, or even email address, especially considering that anyone can join as many networks as they want at any given time.  And when leaving happens, it's not a conscious decision to leave, but rather just an atrophying of use.  So if anything I would think the notion of "critical mass" is least appropriate for social networks, since without the metaphorical cliffs or walls, increased or decreased usage can be so smooth and fluid.  To their credit, Facebook achieved what looks like a critical mass, but they still constantly need to fend off competition to keep it that way.
 
hej
2014-01-23 10:07:01 AM
Yeah, right.  They've been saying the same thing about MySpace for YEARS now.
 
2014-01-23 10:13:28 AM

Trik: it always felt like a fad
once upon a time there were geocities and like sites, then myspace, then facebook
so where is the migration heading now?


Fark and Slashdot seems to be going through something similar
Used to be on Fark that a photoshop thread would have hundreds of entries. Now it unusual for it to break 40 or 50
And the term sllashdotted is a thing of the past
In Slashdot's case I think it's because the site was sold and people moved on

In Fark's case I *think* people are migrating to reditt(sp?) I really haven't been to the site unless an external link takes me there


Photoshop threads died when non-image or non-voting posts were deleted.

It's dead to me.
 
2014-01-23 10:43:25 AM
Was curious what the curve would look like for Fark, so I plotted it:
img.fark.net
 
2014-01-23 11:03:00 AM

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: scottydoesntknow: (only China guy would be affected, and I could still e-mail him).

Not the preferred nomenclature, dude.


He's not Chinese. He's American and moved there 3 years ago. He's a guy, in China.
 
2014-01-23 11:52:44 AM

nohit: Was curious what the curve would look like for Fark, so I plotted it:


Nice.
 
2014-01-23 12:50:38 PM

FreakyBunny: The way they collected their data is flawed. People are using smartphone and tablet aps more and more and they don't require a Google search to get to Facebook.


Yep. My 87-year-old uncle uses a bookmark. Why would anyone Google Facebook?
 
2014-01-23 01:04:55 PM

DeaH: FreakyBunny: The way they collected their data is flawed. People are using smartphone and tablet aps more and more and they don't require a Google search to get to Facebook.

Yep. My 87-year-old uncle uses a bookmark. Why would anyone Google Facebook?


Hell, even if you don't have it bookmarked most browsers save sites you frequent and auto fill the address line.
 
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