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(io9)   Researchers predict Facebook will die "like a disease". With a graph and everything   (io9.com) divider line 112
    More: Obvious, Facebook, diseases, researchers, infectious diseases, Google Trends, search query, online social networks  
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8832 clicks; posted to Main » on 23 Jan 2014 at 5:18 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



112 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2014-01-22 08:37:03 PM  
Very few diseases die.  The host may die but typically not the disease, though they're working on polio.
Or are you saying that Facebook is a disease and killing others?
DNRTFA nor did I look at the pretty graphs.
 
2014-01-22 08:37:22 PM  
As soon as it became somewhere for parents and grandparents to hang out it's days were numbered.
 
2014-01-22 08:39:00 PM  

rkiller1: Very few diseases die.  The host may die but typically not the disease, though they're working on polio.
Or are you saying that Facebook is a disease and killing others?
DNRTFA nor did I look at the pretty graphs.


It will just mutate.  Just like MySpace mutated into Facebook.
 
2014-01-22 08:47:05 PM  
Possibly.  But curve-fitting doesn't always work out so nicely... for example, the past few months' dropoff could be abnormal and the curve could actually be following something more like this:
img.fark.net
 
2014-01-22 08:49:36 PM  

Lucky LaRue: rkiller1: Very few diseases die.  The host may die but typically not the disease, though they're working on polio.
Or are you saying that Facebook is a disease and killing others?
DNRTFA nor did I look at the pretty graphs.

It will just mutate.  Just like MySpace mutated into Facebook.


That's not a good anology: Facebook is like Homo sapiens while MySpace is like Neandrathals. Basically one of the line outdid the other.

The article has the scientist saying that Facebook is going to die off, while the writer says nu-huuuh.

The article writer states that Facebook is too ingrained as a pr/ advertising for business. Personally, get too many ads in there, it will drive people away.
 
2014-01-22 08:52:36 PM  
Yeah...you know that thing you did in science classes when you were stuck late and started screwing around trying to make two random things fit? TFA seems to be having fun with that.
 
2014-01-22 08:55:15 PM  

Spiralmonkey: As soon as it became somewhere for parents and grandparents to hang out it's days were numbered.


Heh...my niece and nephew have already moved on and so have my cousins. I still use it and so do most of my  friends. But we are all getting into our 30's and 40's so we are old. But really except for a few people I just stopped caring about it. I can only see so many more pictures of your kids, your food, or some silly "wine coming out of a faucet" poster before I just quit entirely.
 
2014-01-22 09:01:16 PM  

Tellingthem: I just stopped caring about it. I can only see so many more pictures of your kids, your food, or some silly "wine coming out of a faucet" poster before I just quit entirely.


Pretty much this. I have been on FB since the day they opened it to non .edu email addresses. It's great for connecting with people with whom you have lost touch and I still need to use it to promote simply because it is more direct than email. The messaging is really good, especially the FB Messenger mobile app.

Beyond that, I just don't care enough to scour through the feed like I did. If I catch something, great, but otherwise whatevs.
 
2014-01-22 09:02:58 PM  

Spiralmonkey: As soon as it became somewhere for parents and grandparents to hang out it's days were numbered.


aka Fark
 
2014-01-22 09:05:37 PM  
And Geocities became MySpace.
 
2014-01-22 09:08:11 PM  

rkiller1: Spiralmonkey: As soon as it became somewhere for parents and grandparents to hang out it's days were numbered.

aka Fark


But Facebook was once cool and then ruined by us old folks. Fark has never been cool and always had old folks. As long as it stays lame it will survive unscathed.
 
2014-01-22 09:10:27 PM  

joshiz: I have been on FB since the day they opened it to non .edu email addresses.


Heh, I was a freshman in college when it hit, so I got in on the grand opening.

Now I only get on for one thing, and that's when my friend in China sends a message which is like every 2-3 months. Otherwise I just don't care at all about it. I've got 40-some-odd friend requests and just don't feel like doing anything with them. I talk to and hang out with the friends I like, and don't with the people I don't like. My fiance is still a facebook junky so she keeps me updated on anything friend or family related, but other than that facebook could disappear and my life would barely be affected (only China guy would be affected, and I could still e-mail him).
 
2014-01-22 09:27:26 PM  
I don't have a FB account and never will, but I would not underestimate it any more than I'd predict McDonalds will go out of business next year. (actually, if you click on the "projection.." button on the google trends graph the article is based on, it ... um... shows it actually on the increase.
 
2014-01-22 09:33:40 PM  
The only question is if the virus kills the English language before burning itself out
 
2014-01-22 09:40:28 PM  

Darth_Lukecash: Lucky LaRue: rkiller1: Very few diseases die.  The host may die but typically not the disease, though they're working on polio.
Or are you saying that Facebook is a disease and killing others?
DNRTFA nor did I look at the pretty graphs.

It will just mutate.  Just like MySpace mutated into Facebook.

That's not a good anology: Facebook is like Homo sapiens while MySpace is like Neandrathals. Basically one of the line outdid the other.

The article has the scientist saying that Facebook is going to die off, while the writer says nu-huuuh.

The article writer states that Facebook is too ingrained as a pr/ advertising for business. Personally, get too many ads in there, it will drive people away.


It is part of a long list of what drove me away.  Once my feed became nothing but ads from things I'd liked, it was a short while later I turned off my account.
 
2014-01-22 09:52:13 PM  

meat0918: The article writer states that Facebook is too ingrained as a pr/ advertising for business. Personally, get too many ads in there, it will drive people away.

It is part of a long list of what drove me away.  Once my feed became nothing but ads from things I'd liked, it was a short while later I turned off my account.


Facebook has ads?
 
2014-01-22 10:00:51 PM  

fusillade762: meat0918: The article writer states that Facebook is too ingrained as a pr/ advertising for business. Personally, get too many ads in there, it will drive people away.

It is part of a long list of what drove me away.  Once my feed became nothing but ads from things I'd liked, it was a short while later I turned off my account.

Facebook has ads?


I think they're somewhere off to the side or something. I'm too busy LOLing at pictures  of my aunt's cats dressed up in the attire of her favorite sports teams.
 
2014-01-22 10:18:39 PM  

Spiralmonkey: As soon as it became somewhere for parents and grandparents to hang out it's days were numbered.


As an adult, the fact that many young people have left facebook is a good thing. I really don't need to see endless selfies, or be involved in your immature relationship problems, or catch up on your latest problems with your teachers.

What I do want to see is the important events in my adult friends lives. And Facebook does a pretty decent job of that. So kiddies, good bye, we won't miss you.

Oh and the article is a bunch of psuedo-scientific rubbish.
 
2014-01-22 10:38:46 PM  

joshiz: I have been on FB since the day they opened it to non .edu email addresses.


I've had an account since I started working at a college in '05.  Mostly now I just look at it to see new pictures of my nieces and nephews.  Because I'm an incredibly boring person.
 
2014-01-22 10:40:09 PM  

gameshowhost: Possibly.  But curve-fitting doesn't always work out so nicely... for example, the past few months' dropoff could be abnormal and the curve could actually be following something more like this:
[img.fark.net image 800x600]


LOL.  I regret that I have but one "like" to give for that graph.
 
2014-01-22 11:17:02 PM  

Tellingthem: But we are all getting into our 30's and 40's so we are old.


My greensward, thou shalt vacate it post haste!
 
2014-01-22 11:33:41 PM  

fusillade762: meat0918: The article writer states that Facebook is too ingrained as a pr/ advertising for business. Personally, get too many ads in there, it will drive people away.

It is part of a long list of what drove me away.  Once my feed became nothing but ads from things I'd liked, it was a short while later I turned off my account.

Facebook has ads?


I made the mistake of liking some businesses, and their posts are nothing but ads.  Also at the time, Facebook was allowing pages you liked to post as you as well.
 
2014-01-22 11:52:08 PM  

meat0918: fusillade762: meat0918: The article writer states that Facebook is too ingrained as a pr/ advertising for business. Personally, get too many ads in there, it will drive people away.

It is part of a long list of what drove me away.  Once my feed became nothing but ads from things I'd liked, it was a short while later I turned off my account.

Facebook has ads?

I made the mistake of liking some businesses, and their posts are nothing but ads.  Also at the time, Facebook was allowing pages you liked to post as you as well.


Is the "Hide" function really that hard to use?

And my post was sort of a joke. Since I started using Chrome with Adblock I don't see ads on Facebook anymore. I got tired of all the gay dating and hair removal ads.  Especially since I am neither hairy nor gay.
 
2014-01-22 11:55:58 PM  

fusillade762: meat0918: fusillade762: meat0918: The article writer states that Facebook is too ingrained as a pr/ advertising for business. Personally, get too many ads in there, it will drive people away.

It is part of a long list of what drove me away.  Once my feed became nothing but ads from things I'd liked, it was a short while later I turned off my account.

Facebook has ads?

I made the mistake of liking some businesses, and their posts are nothing but ads.  Also at the time, Facebook was allowing pages you liked to post as you as well.

Is the "Hide" function really that hard to use?

And my post was sort of a joke. Since I started using Chrome with Adblock I don't see ads on Facebook anymore. I got tired of all the gay dating and hair removal ads.  Especially since I am neither hairy nor gay.


Dude, you are hairless? No wonder you kept getting the gay ads...
 
2014-01-23 12:12:20 AM  
I got to a point where the idiotic platitudes and misquotes started to enrage me. So to avoid ranting my fool head off and offending posters of said platitudes and misquotes I stopped going there.
 
2014-01-23 12:16:38 AM  

quickdraw: I got to a point where the idiotic platitudes and misquotes started to enrage me. So to avoid ranting my fool head off and offending posters of said platitudes and misquotes I stopped going there.


weknowmemes.com
lol, wut?
 
2014-01-23 12:40:00 AM  

Mr. Coffee Nerves: The only question is if the virus kills the English language before burning itself out


That's a different one. That's the "typing on a smartphone with autocorrect" virus.
 
2014-01-23 05:07:18 AM  
s7.postimage.org
 
2014-01-23 05:24:17 AM  

scottydoesntknow: (only China guy would be affected, and I could still e-mail him).


Not the preferred nomenclature, dude.
 
2014-01-23 05:25:21 AM  
Facebook will die like dogs!
 
2014-01-23 05:30:57 AM  
I made the mistake of signing up for LinkedIn. That's the beginning and end of my experimenting with social media.

Way, WAY too intrusive for my taste.
 
2014-01-23 05:32:37 AM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: scottydoesntknow: (only China guy would be affected, and I could still e-mail him).

Not the preferred nomenclature, dude.


Chinaman?
 
2014-01-23 05:35:16 AM  
s27.postimg.org
 
2014-01-23 05:37:34 AM  

markfara: I made the mistake of signing up for LinkedIn. That's the beginning and end of my experimenting with social media.

Way, WAY too intrusive for my taste.


Some of my friends signed up for LinkedIn and I guess put me down as a reference or something so now I'm getting spammed to death to "confirm" some shiat and I don't even have an account with them. I'm unreasonably angry about it.
 
2014-01-23 05:40:56 AM  
Never gave FB one second of my time. (Wasted it all on Fark)
 
2014-01-23 05:44:07 AM  
MySpace was awesome at its peak.
 
2014-01-23 05:44:09 AM  

some_beer_drinker: quickdraw: I got to a point where the idiotic platitudes and misquotes started to enrage me. So to avoid ranting my fool head off and offending posters of said platitudes and misquotes I stopped going there.

[weknowmemes.com image 576x375]
lol, wut?


i44.tinypic.com
 
2014-01-23 05:46:23 AM  

burdock: markfara: I made the mistake of signing up for LinkedIn. That's the beginning and end of my experimenting with social media.

Way, WAY too intrusive for my taste.

Some of my friends signed up for LinkedIn and I guess put me down as a reference or something so now I'm getting spammed to death to "confirm" some shiat and I don't even have an account with them. I'm unreasonably angry about it.


It seems to be a useful tool for helping people you'd just as soon avoid track you down.
 
2014-01-23 05:52:36 AM  

AverageAmericanGuy: Facebook will die like dogs!


And may the streets run red with the blood of its advertisers VIVA LE' REVOLUTION' .
 
2014-01-23 05:53:59 AM  

joshiz: Beyond that, I just don't care enough to scour through the feed like I did. If I catch something, great, but otherwise whatevs.


Which, of course, is why you have to post to online forums telling strangers about how little you care.
 
2014-01-23 06:11:49 AM  
I was immune from day one.

The cure was made from samples of my blood.

You are all welcome!
 
2014-01-23 06:19:05 AM  
I did actually try when it first came out but the constant stream of crap from everyone I knew even a little bit reminded me that I do not want a portal into the social lives of others.

It is a portal to crap.

/Why do I need another one?
 
2014-01-23 06:19:27 AM  

AverageAmericanGuy: Facebook will die like dogs!


And when you lose control, you'll reap the harvest you have sown.
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone.
And it's too late to lose the weight you used to need to throw around.
So have a good drown, as you go down, all alone,
Dragged down by the stone.
 
2014-01-23 06:21:52 AM  

quickdraw: I got to a point where the idiotic platitudes and misquotes started to enrage me. So to avoid ranting my fool head off and offending posters of said platitudes and misquotes I stopped going there.


People reposting false shiat all the time is what gets me.  They read something, assume it's true and happily share it on their own page thus passing on the crap.  I have one friend that actually got mad at me for always posting a link to snopes or fact or fiction showing what they just posted is false. That cracks me up.
 
2014-01-23 06:25:08 AM  

airplane_mech2: quickdraw: I got to a point where the idiotic platitudes and misquotes started to enrage me. So to avoid ranting my fool head off and offending posters of said platitudes and misquotes I stopped going there.

People reposting false shiat all the time is what gets me.  They read something, assume it's true and happily share it on their own page thus passing on the crap.  I have one friend that actually got mad at me for always posting a link to snopes or fact or fiction showing what they just posted is false. That cracks me up.


He/she didn't try to discredit Snopes? Because that's what they usually do.
 
2014-01-23 06:27:41 AM  
Facebook will eventually die just like MySpace did (it still exists but does anyone really go there?) when something better comes along.  A lot of social websites such as Fark were quite heavily hoovered by Reddit, as were Digg users and so on.  Something will appear to replace Reddit sooner or later.

I am rather looking forward to those two sites entering their "look at me I'm still relevant" phase of existence as they haemorrhage users.  It was really quite amusing when MySpace & Digg went through it.
 
2014-01-23 06:34:28 AM  
My takeaway from these threads is that too many of you have either never left your hometown or your friends are incredibly boring.

I have really good friends and family all across the globe. Several of them are witty and funny, so my feed generally keeps me entertained and informed.
 
2014-01-23 06:35:12 AM  

GungFu: some_beer_drinker: quickdraw: I got to a point where the idiotic platitudes and misquotes started to enrage me. So to avoid ranting my fool head off and offending posters of said platitudes and misquotes I stopped going there.

[weknowmemes.com image 576x375]
lol, wut?

[i44.tinypic.com image 569x361]


s17.postimg.org
 
2014-01-23 06:41:57 AM  

Spiralmonkey: As soon as it became somewhere for parents and grandparents to hang out it's days were numbered.


Not at all. They are the ones with discretionary income, yes? Those are the people advertisers want to reach. Ad revenues keep it humming along. Win-win.

My son, his girlfriend and most of his friends have closed their accounts, so, yes. Younger people are leaving. People my age and older are staying, though.
 
2014-01-23 06:44:48 AM  
The way they collected their data is flawed. People are using smartphone and tablet aps more and more and they don't require a Google search to get to Facebook.
 
2014-01-23 06:45:42 AM  
it always felt like a fad
once upon a time there were geocities and like sites, then myspace, then facebook
so where is the migration heading now?


Fark and Slashdot seems to be going through something similar
Used to be on Fark that a photoshop thread would have hundreds of entries. Now it unusual for it to break 40 or 50
And the term sllashdotted is a thing of the past
In Slashdot's case I think it's because the site was sold and people moved on

In Fark's case I *think* people are migrating to reditt(sp?) I really haven't been to the site unless an external link takes me there
 
2014-01-23 06:48:03 AM  
img.gawkerassets.com
Ah, true facebook believers will just point out this is `a pause` and that the highest search values are all in the last two years which is proof that they will continue to rise. It is pointed out that 10 out of the top ten highest months have been in the last two years. Look at the rise between 2005 and 2011 they say, that cannot have been natural and that data means we will suffer facebook saturation by 2016 (this will be moved to 2050 in the year 2015)  and every search on the internet will either be on or about facebook.

Facebook deniers say that there is a flat or even possibly negative trend now but this is refuted by those who look at the true data and called cherry picking as the full data set is not used which starts in 2005. There was no internet before facebook was created in 2005. Using this set the trend is undeniably positive as it started from zero and is not back to zero again.

Some have pointed to the `pause` as a sign that the rise is not accelerating, this is not accepted as the current theory is that there are millions of people `trying to think of something really great` and the overall potential posts are actually increasing when there are not any new actual posts because of this `buffer zone` of users with the message window open unable to think of something to say.

It is predicted that when they post the entire internet will explode.

Some have pointed to napster and myspace as examples of websites where traffic has risen as quickly in the past and then fallen by itself but those were natural sites and as such they cannot be applied to facebook, which is man made. Others have accused facebook of massaging the data but this is beyond reproach as they get their figures from Google who as we all know are totally trustworthy. If you deny the data from google you deny the holocaust as they are exactly the same thing, not even a metaphor or analogy. Exactly the same thing. The holocaust IS the data from Google. The data from Google IS the holocaust.

In a few short years children will have to read about other websites on facebook. Web servers will drown under the weight of traffic. Local data droughts will occur as the pipes become clogged with facebook and other places will suffer floods of data leading to denial of service crashes on a wide scale. Some small servers in the pacific ocean have already crashed.

This is not hyperbole, it`s true, a small server has already crashed on an island in the south pacific.

Won`t someone think of the children on facebook?
 
2014-01-23 06:56:57 AM  

Vaneshi: Facebook will eventually die just like MySpace did (it still exists but does anyone really go there?) when something better comes along.  A lot of social websites such as Fark were quite heavily hoovered by Reddit, as were Digg users and so on.  Something will appear to replace Reddit sooner or later.

I am rather looking forward to those two sites entering their "look at me I'm still relevant" phase of existence as they haemorrhage users.  It was really quite amusing when MySpace & Digg went through it.


Denier!

Trik: it always felt like a fad
once upon a time there were geocities and like sites, then myspace, then facebook
so where is the migration heading now?


Fark and Slashdot seems to be going through something similar
Used to be on Fark that a photoshop thread would have hundreds of entries. Now it unusual for it to break 40 or 50
And the term sllashdotted is a thing of the past
In Slashdot's case I think it's because the site was sold and people moved on

In Fark's case I *think* people are migrating to reditt(sp?) I really haven't been to the site unless an external link takes me there


Reddit seems to be gaining popularity from the list of sites I have seen mentioned on other sites. People want traffic from reddit.

Myself, as I see it, fark has become a site where trolls troll trolls and the rest get angry so I only visit if I want to deal with trolls or angry people. Now I just point out how stupid the conversations here usually are.

Other websites do not want traffic from Fark, The trolls and angry people kill the feel of their nice moderated forum although to be honest the trolls and angry people don`t last long on a properly moderated forum...
 
2014-01-23 06:57:56 AM  
Peak Facebook? Surely you're yanking my chain.

/dropped my account before it was cool.
 
2014-01-23 07:02:01 AM  

phenn: Spiralmonkey: As soon as it became somewhere for parents and grandparents to hang out it's days were numbered.

Not at all. They are the ones with discretionary income, yes? Those are the people advertisers want to reach. Ad revenues keep it humming along. Win-win.

My son, his girlfriend and most of his friends have closed their accounts, so, yes. Younger people are leaving. People my age and older are staying, though.


That's exactly why it's dying: young people staying away in droves. It's something the tobacco industry figured out years ago: old customers die off and must be replaced by the young.
 
2014-01-23 07:02:25 AM  
Anyone who knows a few active 20-something's knows this to be true.
 
2014-01-23 07:06:25 AM  

Trik: it always felt like a fad
once upon a time there were geocities and like sites, then myspace, then facebook
so where is the migration heading now?


Fark and Slashdot seems to be going through something similar
Used to be on Fark that a photoshop thread would have hundreds of entries. Now it unusual for it to break 40 or 50
And the term sllashdotted is a thing of the past
In Slashdot's case I think it's because the site was sold and people moved on

In Fark's case I *think* people are migrating to reditt(sp?) I really haven't been to the site unless an external link takes me there


Facebook has been better than things like geocities and myspace in that it's done a lot more to make you invested with the site with its minigames and getting involved with allowing commenting on various websites via facebook alone. With a lot of sites you may see a story that annoys you, and then some comments at the bottom which you can only reply to via a facebook profile. They also have various minigames that you can spend time with as little time wasters, which gets people into the habit of just going there all the time instead of places like newgrounds for their flash games.

They're also actively making sure they're ingrained in our culture so that it'll only really be replaced by something about the same. I feel like reddit doesn't quite do that as I don't think you can really setup public profiles on there to talk about how great you are and post constant streams of pictures and comments about how wonderful you are and all the wonderful things you're doing.
 
2014-01-23 07:07:17 AM  

gameshowhost: Possibly.  But curve-fitting doesn't always work out so nicely... for example, the past few months' dropoff could be abnormal and the curve could actually be following something more like this:
[img.fark.net image 800x600]


*penis*
 
2014-01-23 07:07:50 AM  

HaywoodJablonski: My takeaway from these threads is that too many of you have either never left your hometown or your friends are incredibly boring.

I have really good friends and family all across the globe. Several of them are witty and funny, so my feed generally keeps me entertained and informed.


And yet, here you are.
 
2014-01-23 07:09:15 AM  
I don't understand who is investing in FB; the current P/E is 146. What the frack? Who is buying stock in a doomed company with earnings that are 1/7 of anything else on the S&P?
 
2014-01-23 07:10:23 AM  
Bullshiat it will get a bailout long before that ever happens
 
2014-01-23 07:11:44 AM  
Facebook was dead to me three years ago. It totally mind farks with your relationship - the constant changing of status from "in a relationship" to "it's complicated" and changing your profile pics from you and your SO to just you...all the intrusive comments from your and his 500 closest friends...all the flirting with the old girlfriends and boyfriends that are now your FB "friends." Just a totally stupid concept. Oh, and people farking uploading all kinds of pics without your permission. People you never wanted to see again (and the meth addicted side of your extended family) begging you to friend them or identify them as family. Your employer scrutinizing your personal life. Of course, this was years ago and I hadn't taken the time to figure out whatever privacy options they had at the time.
 
2014-01-23 07:12:17 AM  
( ° ʖ °)
 
2014-01-23 07:15:25 AM  
It'll just come back in an other iteration, just like Geocities. Really, how much are you going to share, not that many people care about you to begin with.Already harvested for gossip by news outlets, feds, down to local PDs, Should try to bait them all, from you grandparents on down.
 
2014-01-23 07:16:47 AM  

Milo Minderbinder: That's exactly why it's dying: young people staying away in droves. It's something the tobacco industry figured out years ago: old customers die off and must be replaced by the young.


I understand your point. Mind you, I don't think there will be a mass die-off of 30-50 year olds any time soon.

I suspect FB will evolve to a degree, but always remain somewhat popular. Maybe not a behemoth. But popular.
 
2014-01-23 07:25:47 AM  

phenn: Milo Minderbinder: That's exactly why it's dying: young people staying away in droves. It's something the tobacco industry figured out years ago: old customers die off and must be replaced by the young.

I understand your point. Mind you, I don't think there will be a mass die-off of 30-50 year olds any time soon.

I suspect FB will evolve to a degree, but always remain somewhat popular. Maybe not a behemoth. But popular.


There is also a tipping point involved. At some point, no one will be on it because no one is on it, as tautological that sounds.
 
2014-01-23 07:33:58 AM  
Dinki:   endless selfies,

God, a sad thing I'm witnessing right now is someone I know who is in her 40's trying to look like another lady and they have completely different body types and facial structures. She has gotten to taking 2 to 3 selfies every farking day!  It's very sad.
 
2014-01-23 07:40:39 AM  
I wonder if it will get a SMTD (Social Media Transmitted Disease) ?
 
2014-01-23 07:44:31 AM  
It's like a diseased face of friendship.
 
2014-01-23 07:52:57 AM  
I was just thinking about if it does die, how will I know when my friend had coffee? Or how will people be able to attention whore by posting vague statuses  such as "sad today"
 
2014-01-23 07:53:19 AM  
It won't die, but it certainly could see a mass exodus of users. Especially if they implement those video ads they were talking about.

Hell, young people are already leaving because too many old people are on it.
 
2014-01-23 07:54:23 AM  
so  what would a FARK-GRAPH look like...  i wonder...   :)
 
2014-01-23 07:59:05 AM  
It's a graph so I believe it.
 
2014-01-23 08:01:43 AM  
If facebook policies werent so creepy it would live longer...
 
2014-01-23 08:19:28 AM  
Hmm, applying disease ideas to technological S-curves.

I should get out of bed and find the relevant Kurzweil graphs, but the room is too spinny. All technologies start with an idea, cost too much, get more efficient, become profitable and boom until it is over supplied, gets consolidated by the biggest players, and then ticks over until replaced or relegated. Bronze, sailing ships, water mills, printing, colonization, cotton, steel, railroads, telegraphs, oil, automobiles, aeroplanes, cinema, radio broadcast AND reception, audio records, the microchip, personal computers, and finally the internet. Anyone remember Alta-Vista?

Fads are a different beast and are more biologically modeled. Sometimes they don't really die out, they just become engrained. Disco didn't go away, there is still plenty of that 4/4 dance music out there. Hell, maybe even that was a technology type s-curve.

I'd need a cognitive psychologist to study this, but isn't the smartphone a hyper evolved pet rock?
 
2014-01-23 08:33:56 AM  
Yeah, because every curve can be fit with a simple parabolic or Gaussian.....

www.physics.csbsju.edu
 
2014-01-23 08:39:14 AM  
So on to Google+ then?
 
2014-01-23 08:39:19 AM  
It ain't dying, it's demographic is just changing. It could easily keep going on if they focus future changes around that.
 
2014-01-23 08:41:48 AM  
The kid pics and constant self-validation image macros are retarded. The political idiocy is retarded. The religious crap is retarded. Still, I get to post clever things and have a core of folks who interact with me on a level that is either mercifully superficial, or more regular and deep than their hectic lives would allow without it. If I want real human contact, I know how to get a hold of those I have an in-person friendship with. There are people I have known I never met and are friend of friends of friends that I have developed real friendships with, albeit only on facebook. Something you don't realize until they die from their long battle with cancer and you actually are very devastated.
 
2014-01-23 08:52:56 AM  
I find FB to be a liability. I won't close my account, as it's a decent place to maintain contacts, but I see no real need to post statuses, photos, anything really.
 
2014-01-23 09:02:32 AM  
I recently uninstalled the app from my phone and it did wonders for my productivity. I no longer worry about correcting dumbasses on their inflammatory, uninformed political posts or how random folks' pregnancies are coming along. It was more compulsion than genuine interest to check on those things. I still have an account but I'm seriously thinking about removing it because I can't find a way to make my photos, friends list, etc. completely private.
 
2014-01-23 09:05:13 AM  

dready zim: Reddit seems to be gaining popularity from the list of sites I have seen mentioned on other sites. People want traffic from reddit.


I can't understand that at all, the site, it's so ugly...I won't subject myself to that.
 
2014-01-23 09:08:53 AM  

FreakyBunny: The way they collected their data is flawed. People are using smartphone and tablet aps more and more and they don't require a Google search to get to Facebook.


Not to mention this thing called a "bookmark".

Their theory is that Facebook will "fail" when people quit asking Google what it is? Really? That's just called market saturation.

Facebook is useful in a way that MySpace never was. It's reached critical mass, and now in some ways it's easier to use and more useful than other forms of communication, such as email. If it dies it will be by its own hand, either by privacy settings, marketing, or bloat.
 
2014-01-23 09:13:22 AM  
Hmmm, this doesn't jibe with the price of FB....it is near an all-time high.  Pump and dump maybe?   Short FB?
 
2014-01-23 09:13:53 AM  

optimistic_cynic: dready zim: Reddit seems to be gaining popularity from the list of sites I have seen mentioned on other sites. People want traffic from reddit.

I can't understand that at all, the site, it's so ugly...I won't subject myself to that.


The site may be ugly but it serves a useful purpose, to wit, it keeps idiots "redditors" self-quarantined from the rest of the internet for extended periods of time.
 
2014-01-23 09:30:06 AM  

dready zim: Ah, true facebook believers will just point out this is `a pause` and that the highest search values are all in the last two years which is proof that they will continue to rise. It is pointed out that 10 out of the top ten highest months have been in the last two years. Look at the rise between 2005 and 2011 they say, that cannot have been natural and that data means we will suffer facebook saturation by 2016 (this will be moved to 2050 in the year 2015)  and every search on the internet will either be on or about facebook.

Facebook deniers say that there is a flat or even possibly negative trend now but this is refuted by those who look at the true data and called cherry picking as the full data set is not used which starts in 2005. There was no internet before facebook was created in 2005. Using this set the trend is undeniably positive as it started from zero and is not back to zero again.

Some have pointed to the `pause` as a sign that the rise is not accelerating, this is not accepted as the current theory is that there are millions of people `trying to think of something really great` and the overall potential posts are actually increasing when there are not any new actual posts because of this `buffer zone` of users with the message window open unable to think of something to say.

It is predicted that when they post the entire internet will explode.

Some have pointed to napster and myspace as examples of websites where traffic has risen as quickly in the past and then fallen by itself but those were natural sites and as such they cannot be applied to facebook, which is man made. Others have accused facebook of massaging the data but this is beyond reproach as they get their figures from Google who as we all know are totally trustworthy. If you deny the data from google you deny the holocaust as they are exactly the same thing, not even a metaphor or analogy. Exactly the same thing. The holocaust IS the data from Google. The data from Google IS the holocaust.

In a few short years children will have to read about other websites on facebook. Web servers will drown under the weight of traffic. Local data droughts will occur as the pipes become clogged with facebook and other places will suffer floods of data leading to denial of service crashes on a wide scale. Some small servers in the pacific ocean have already crashed.

This is not hyperbole, it`s true, a small server has already crashed on an island in the south pacific.

Won`t someone think of the children on facebook?


WTF?

Over.
 
2014-01-23 09:39:22 AM  

MisterTweak: I don't have a FB account and never will, but I would not underestimate it any more than I'd predict McDonalds will go out of business next year. (actually, if you click on the "projection.." button on the google trends graph the article is based on, it ... um... shows it actually on the increase.


The difference is that McDonalds delivers a product, and that product is consistent and good (if you like Big Macs).

The problem with Facebook and all social networks is that the reason for joining are the other people there. Online social networks have the same problem that nightclubs have - if you're the hippest nightclub around, you won't be for long because the unhip people will want to be where the hip people are, and once they do, the hip people won't want to hang around because why would a hip person want to hang out with an unhip person. Then, the unhip people won't want to go there because there aren't any hip people, so they move on to where the hip people went.

Take LinkedIn - I used to get requests from really interesting people for my line of work. Now, I get requests from companies in India trying to sell me software. They've realised there's lots of people on there, and are trying to make money from it, but are ruining the experience for me with their presence. The very success of social networks can be what kills them.
 
2014-01-23 09:40:45 AM  
4.bp.blogspot.com

Facebook is not going away fast enough...
and enough with #HASHTAGS already. #dontcareaboutyourtwittercrap

/Subscribe to my news letter "middle aged guy rants about social media"
//get off my lawn...
 
2014-01-23 09:43:41 AM  
GungFu: You are priceless! My first thought was: I wonder how many people won't get it? They will probably think that's Abraham Lincoln, just because his name is next to the picture. You've illustrated the stupidity of millions.
 
2014-01-23 09:46:42 AM  

farkeruk: MisterTweak: I don't have a FB account and never will, but I would not underestimate it any more than I'd predict McDonalds will go out of business next year. (actually, if you click on the "projection.." button on the google trends graph the article is based on, it ... um... shows it actually on the increase.

The difference is that McDonalds delivers a product, and that product is consistent and good (if you like Big Macs).

The problem with Facebook and all social networks is that the reason for joining are the other people there. Online social networks have the same problem that nightclubs have - if you're the hippest nightclub around, you won't be for long because the unhip people will want to be where the hip people are, and once they do, the hip people won't want to hang around because why would a hip person want to hang out with an unhip person. Then, the unhip people won't want to go there because there aren't any hip people, so they move on to where the hip people went.

Take LinkedIn - I used to get requests from really interesting people for my line of work. Now, I get requests from companies in India trying to sell me software. They've realized there's lots of people on there, and are trying to make money from it, but are ruining the experience for me with their presence. The very success of social networks can be what kills them.


is the word "hip" still used ?


img.fark.net
 
2014-01-23 09:51:31 AM  
I read the headline in Agent Smith's voice.

Maybe that's the cure.
 
2014-01-23 09:52:45 AM  
The influx of grandparents will keep it alive.
 
2014-01-23 09:57:31 AM  

Zombalupagus: critical mass


I keep hearing this phrase with regards to social networking.  Aside from the obvious concept that more users is better, does it really mean anything?  Yes, everyone else needs to be on a network for it to be useful, but the barriers to joining/switching are virtually nonexistent--much lower than changing your OS type, cable provider, or even email address, especially considering that anyone can join as many networks as they want at any given time.  And when leaving happens, it's not a conscious decision to leave, but rather just an atrophying of use.  So if anything I would think the notion of "critical mass" is least appropriate for social networks, since without the metaphorical cliffs or walls, increased or decreased usage can be so smooth and fluid.  To their credit, Facebook achieved what looks like a critical mass, but they still constantly need to fend off competition to keep it that way.
 
hej
2014-01-23 10:07:01 AM  
Yeah, right.  They've been saying the same thing about MySpace for YEARS now.
 
2014-01-23 10:13:28 AM  

Trik: it always felt like a fad
once upon a time there were geocities and like sites, then myspace, then facebook
so where is the migration heading now?


Fark and Slashdot seems to be going through something similar
Used to be on Fark that a photoshop thread would have hundreds of entries. Now it unusual for it to break 40 or 50
And the term sllashdotted is a thing of the past
In Slashdot's case I think it's because the site was sold and people moved on

In Fark's case I *think* people are migrating to reditt(sp?) I really haven't been to the site unless an external link takes me there


Photoshop threads died when non-image or non-voting posts were deleted.

It's dead to me.
 
2014-01-23 10:43:25 AM  
Was curious what the curve would look like for Fark, so I plotted it:
img.fark.net
 
2014-01-23 11:03:00 AM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: scottydoesntknow: (only China guy would be affected, and I could still e-mail him).

Not the preferred nomenclature, dude.


He's not Chinese. He's American and moved there 3 years ago. He's a guy, in China.
 
2014-01-23 11:52:44 AM  

nohit: Was curious what the curve would look like for Fark, so I plotted it:


Nice.
 
2014-01-23 12:50:38 PM  

FreakyBunny: The way they collected their data is flawed. People are using smartphone and tablet aps more and more and they don't require a Google search to get to Facebook.


Yep. My 87-year-old uncle uses a bookmark. Why would anyone Google Facebook?
 
2014-01-23 01:04:55 PM  

DeaH: FreakyBunny: The way they collected their data is flawed. People are using smartphone and tablet aps more and more and they don't require a Google search to get to Facebook.

Yep. My 87-year-old uncle uses a bookmark. Why would anyone Google Facebook?


Hell, even if you don't have it bookmarked most browsers save sites you frequent and auto fill the address line.
 
2014-01-23 01:53:17 PM  

FreakyBunny: The way they collected their data is flawed. People are using smartphone and tablet aps more and more and they don't require a Google search to get to Facebook.


... wait, what? *checks article*
Dafuq, guys. Equating "Everyone either has Facebook bookmarked or knows how to type facebook.com" to "Facebook is dying off!" is a tiny bit of a stretch.

I would not expect a steep die-off curve. FB will stick around as long as ad revnue holds out. It'll exist for quite some time after users have mostly abandoned it for the next new thing, clinging to those auto-logins and homepage loads after human eyeballs have ceased to care.
 
2014-01-23 05:03:23 PM  

meat0918: fusillade762: meat0918: The article writer states that Facebook is too ingrained as a pr/ advertising for business. Personally, get too many ads in there, it will drive people away.

It is part of a long list of what drove me away.  Once my feed became nothing but ads from things I'd liked, it was a short while later I turned off my account.

Facebook has ads?

I made the mistake of liking some businesses, and their posts are nothing but ads.  Also at the time, Facebook was allowing pages you liked to post as you as well.


BINGO - now they are charging businesses to post if they want over 15% to be seen.  Ding ding, it's all about the money.  Businesses are getting pissed off therefore they will leave, they leave the money leaves, the money leaves, Facebook closes. Also a lot of the times you actually gave those apps and likes to post as you - privacy settings need to be checked often.
 
2014-01-23 05:14:33 PM  
They will lose a lot of their traffic but only because nothing ever really changes except their ways to advertise to the users.  They haven't tried to really expand out the platform to be useful beyond what they always have been.

Google may have lost the social media race by a longshot but they are king of monetizing their services and look to always grow them to keep "asses in seats".
 
2014-01-23 05:17:20 PM  
Has Netcraft even confirmed this, bro?
 
2014-01-23 06:20:24 PM  

scottydoesntknow: Monkeyfark Ridiculous: scottydoesntknow: (only China guy would be affected, and I could still e-mail him).

Not the preferred nomenclature, dude.

He's not Chinese. He's American and moved there 3 years ago. He's a guy, in China.



that was attempted humor
 
2014-01-23 08:39:20 PM  

Syrrh: FreakyBunny: The way they collected their data is flawed. People are using smartphone and tablet aps more and more and they don't require a Google search to get to Facebook.

... wait, what? *checks article*
Dafuq, guys. Equating "Everyone either has Facebook bookmarked or knows how to type facebook.com" to "Facebook is dying off!" is a tiny bit of a stretch.

I would not expect a steep die-off curve. FB will stick around as long as ad revnue holds out. It'll exist for quite some time after users have mostly abandoned it for the next new thing, clinging to those auto-logins and homepage loads after human eyeballs have ceased to care.


Not sure of you're agreeing with me....

FTFA: "The authors have based their models on data that reflect the number of times "Facebook" has been typed into Google as a search term. Checking Google Trends reveals that these weekly "search queues" reached a peak in December of 2012, and have since begun to level off.

In other words, about the time tablets started flying off the shelves. If they based their model of Google searches from a pre-tablet, emerging smartphone era, they may be overestimating the connection between popularity and new, widely embraced ways of connecting to Facebook. People don't need to search for it. It's already there. Even Windows 8 (for the poor saps saddled with it) has an app like button for it.
 
2014-01-23 09:27:12 PM  

dready zim: don`t last long on a properly moderated forum...


Which in no way shape or form describes reddit, where the average age of a user appears to be 8 - 13 and your chance of getting even a sensible conversation well of the beaten track is nil.

And yes sites want traffic from Reddit, but then again at one point in history people wanted traffic from Digg and Fark and Slashdot, even MySpace.

There is a pattern there and only a fool would think that somehow a given site (be it this one, or any other) that is dependant on users for its content won't eventually burn or be replaced.
 
2014-01-23 09:36:27 PM  
Facebook may be around for a while, but I think people are getting tired of it.  (This from a 40+ guy.)  I just deactivated my account this week after considering it for quite a while.

Why?

Because I'm tired of being tracked. When I discovered Facebook was tracking "self censorship" with a goal of preventing it (thank you FARK) ..I was done.  Good lord, can you imagine everyone failing to self censor??  There would be some awesome material on Fark, but also a good deal of shootings/ beatings/ breakups too.  I don't need someone to track when the angels of my better nature make me reconsider posting something inherently douchy or offensive or just plain stupid. 

I had a lot of FB friends that had a variety of political perspectives...and I got tired of arguing...for some folks it was an article of faith or belief.  For others it was whatever crap they found on the interwebs...They're all good folks, and we're all friends outside the FB arena, but sometimes you find yourself either faced with an argument you'll never win because of the persons belief system, or you find yourself spending hours digging up facts to support your argument when discussing with your more rational friends. 

When I think about my very close friends, we hang out on occasion, drink a few beers, maybe toss around a few political ideas, then go home.  I have maybe 2 REALLY close friends and about 8 mostly-close friends...I had 82-odd 'friends' or family on Facebook.. It started to become the awkward Thanksgiving / Christmas dinner with someone being "drunk uncle Fred" every time  I logged on.. And yeah, I loved the pics of the kids...but I really don't need the endless selfies or food porn.

I think Facebook will die...maybe not as a disease as the article describes, maybe not as fast as the article suggests, but it will die.  The phone and the cell phone were revolutions too..but they didn't give you the ability to talk to all your friends and relatives (and hear their opinions) simultaneously.   It's this exposure, and the constantly changing privacy settings that will eventually reduce Facebook to Myspace levels.
 
2014-01-24 02:16:14 AM  

MisterTweak: I don't have a FB account and never will, but I would not underestimate it any more than I'd predict McDonalds will go out of business next year. (actually, if you click on the "projection.." button on the google trends graph the article is based on, it ... um... shows it actually on the increase.


Yeah, but saying "Facebook will continue to be read" doesent get readers to click the link and generate revenue.

The internet is full of stupidity for clicks sake.

/ some scientists say...
 
2014-01-24 11:16:44 AM  

Yankees Team Gynecologist: Zombalupagus: critical mass

I keep hearing this phrase with regards to social networking.  Aside from the obvious concept that more users is better, does it really mean anything?  Yes, everyone else needs to be on a network for it to be useful, but the barriers to joining/switching are virtually nonexistent


Yes, it's still important. For example I originally switched from MySpace to FB because more people were posting events such as club nights there. Someone may come along with a service that's better, but until they reach a critical mass of people promoting their events on it, it's just not going to be as useful to me.
 
2014-01-24 11:53:10 AM  

Zombalupagus: Yes, it's still important. For example I originally switched from MySpace to FB because more people were posting events such as club nights there. Someone may come along with a service that's better, but until they reach a critical mass of people promoting their events on it, it's just not going to be as useful to me.


Sure, but that's your personal "critical mass." Which varies from person to person.  So overall it's still just a smooth gradient where more is better, but it's not like there's a line beyond which near-immortality is achieved.
 
2014-01-24 11:59:19 AM  

Yankees Team Gynecologist: Zombalupagus: Yes, it's still important. For example I originally switched from MySpace to FB because more people were posting events such as club nights there. Someone may come along with a service that's better, but until they reach a critical mass of people promoting their events on it, it's just not going to be as useful to me.

Sure, but that's your personal "critical mass." Which varies from person to person.  So overall it's still just a smooth gradient where more is better, but it's not like there's a line beyond which near-immortality is achieved.


Furthermore, even if most people do have a similar point where they look around and feel like there's "enough" activity there to make it the place to be, the fact that (like I said earlier) there are no barriers to joining and posting on others doesn't make it much of a wall or spike.

At best, the notion of "critical mass" only applies to the era when all social networks looked pretty much the same (Friendster, MySpace, etc.).  Now we have things like Twitter, Instagram, and Tumblr, which offer different kinds of interaction and can all be used simultaneously in different-feeling ways.  If/when FB dies it will be because those other "kinds" are just more conducive to what people want to use, and actual FB activity has gradually petered out.  Like I said earlier, it won't be a conscious decision to jump ship.
 
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