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(Some Guy)   Montreal real estate market collapsing so quickly that this 'Al Louer' guy seems to own most of the Montreal buildings these days. His signs are just everywhere   (marketwired.com) divider line 43
    More: Interesting, Montreal real estate market, Montreal, GMREB Board of Directors, North Shore  
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8783 clicks; posted to Main » on 16 Jan 2014 at 10:30 AM (27 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



Voting Results (Smartest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

2014-01-16 10:23:10 AM
5 votes:
"The effects of the more restrictive mortgage rules that came into effect in July 2012 continued to be felt in 2013," said Diane Ménard, Vice-President of the GMREB Board of Directors and spokesperson for the Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards (QFREB) for the Montréal area.

Hum... No.  That's what you'd like to think, because you can them blame the evil government who no longer allows 40 year, zero-down mortgages.  This guy has a better explanation:

"The Montréal real estate market, which was generally a seller's market, underwent a rebalancing in 2013, caused by a slowdown in sales and an increase in supply," said Paul Cardinal, Manager of the Market Analysis Department at the Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards. "The relaxing of market conditions was more pronounced for condominiums: after becoming balanced in 2012, conditions for this property category shifted to a buyer's market in 2013," he added.

Yep.  Condo towers are popping up all over the place, while the population doesn't grow as fast...  Offer is greater than demand, and no one wants a $350,000 600sq.ft. condo overlooking the Turcot interchange, evn if it has marble countertops.
2014-01-16 01:45:18 PM
3 votes:
Shazam999:

Astounding really, and of course a guy like Rev.K will vote Liberal in the next federal election, who will then promptly put in NEP2, and that'll be that for Calgary.

Now we disagree. The first NEP didn't trigger the recession, it only exacerbated it. Continuing to scapegoat it and Trudeau for the recession 40 years on is farking tiresome and simple-minded. Lougheed was at least smart and created the Heritage fund to shore Alberta up against future calamities, but now that's been pissed away. By who? Not by the federal Liberals. Alberta ought to have the finest education, healthcare, and innovative research and industry in the world with all that money coursing around, but instead all we have is inflated real estate and petroleum companies biatching and moaning if we dare to skim any off. All the eggs remain in one farking basket. We're the farking Beverly Hillbillies.
2014-01-16 11:30:32 AM
3 votes:
Rev.K:

Calgary will be the exception to any sort of crash scenario. Growth is still strong and prices have held.

I have little interest in the Calgary housing market, but I will point out that anytime someone identifies the ONE place that is somehow immune to the economic forces that apply everywhere else, they just happen to live in the place that is special.  And have a greater-than-average chance of benefitting from the magical-ness (e.g. owning a house)

Interest rates rise and fall.  Self-interest rates never drop.
2014-01-16 10:42:49 AM
3 votes:
CSB:

Flew to Montreal a few years back with my son to see a concert and stayed downtown.  Upon noticing the condition of the city, we decided to have a 2 day competition:  Find any public or public works surface (i.e. benches, signs, bridges, etc) with no graffiti on them.  The final score was 0 to 0.

I was hoping for a Euro style trip without travelling so far.  Instead, we went to Detroit en francais.

You're welcome.
2014-01-16 10:38:23 AM
3 votes:
I'm getting a kick out these comments... because my wife is the Montreal Gazette's real estate reporter. We're in a dilemma. I have a great job at McGill University, largely protected from all the language BS. She's in a dying industry and itching to leave the province. We have a nice house in the central downtown area. I hope it's worth something when I finally decide to move to another province.
2014-01-16 10:33:58 AM
3 votes:
Number of people who will understand what "a louer" means here: 1 in 10000.
2014-01-16 11:37:10 AM
2 votes:

Rev.K: TheAlgebraist: I'm not sure what incomes in that city are like,

Calgary is flush with cash. High salaries all around.

People have been predicting and waiting for a housing crash in Calgary since values skyrocketed in 2007 and it hasn't happened.


The Energy biz in finicky.  A downward swing could prove catastrophic here, and that should always be kept in mind.  It wouldn't be the first(or second) time things went south here.

I certainly wouldn't be buying a condo in this city, given the amount of construction going on.  I still can't figure out why people pay $400 000 for a 600 sqft condo downtown when they can go 5 km out, pay 450 000 and get a house with actual land.Or for some reason people go 15-25km out, pay the same price and live with the horrible commute.
2014-01-16 11:03:12 AM
2 votes:

Atomgirl: Ahhh, another french canadian hate thread. It had been a while.


Ahh the quebecois.  Was playing a pvp mmo long ago and in our oversized guild we had a guy I chatted with daily, REAAAALLLy thick hard to understand accent.  Thought for weeks that he was from norway or some russian republic.  Finally found out he was from Quebec, really threw me off.  So were all in chat, you know ganking and drinking and I start ragging on him about being french canadian and making fun of the recent politcal farkups happening there at the time.  He goes on a rant about how canada hates the quebecois, everybody farking hates the quebecois.  Its so bad he says, that even the farking quebecois hate the farking quebecois.  Its the most impolite I have ever heard a canadian get, was hilarious though.

I miss hanging out with him.
2014-01-16 10:56:43 AM
2 votes:
SovietCanuckistan:

I guess you could call it optimism. But there are some dark clouds on the horizon for sure. Once the guys building the condos are out of work, it is going to be a shiat-spiral and nobody really knows how far down it will go.

And unlike our cousins to the south, we can't even hoard guns and ammo.   Time to sharpen that hockey stick again I suppose.
2014-01-16 02:24:02 PM
1 votes:

Rev.K: My point is that the economic indicators aren't consistent with an imminent crash, something that has been predicted since the housing surge in 2007. That isn't to say it can't happen, but indicators are not signalling that it will happen soon.


The person whose job is managing public funds should be the most pessimistic person in the room. You're not there to be the next Warren Buffet.
2014-01-16 02:10:22 PM
1 votes:

LemSkroob: Maybe this will force them to all go back to France? That would be best.


Yeah, about that. France doesn't want them back. They're considered to be colonial peasants who speak a bizarre, bastardized version of French. A lot of their ancestors were basically exiled to the New World for being low-life scum.

/disclaimer: that's what the French think, not what I think. The French Canadian guys I work with are pretty decent guys as long as you don't talk politics.
2014-01-16 02:06:28 PM
1 votes:
Shazam999:

Astounding really, and of course a guy like Rev.K will vote Liberal in the next federal election, who will then promptly put in NEP2, and that'll be that for Calgary.

Why does everyone think this?  Everyone assumes to know Trudeau's policies.  You know he supported Canadian pipeline development in the US?   He's the biggest energy sector supporter in Ottawa.
2014-01-16 01:53:20 PM
1 votes:

ruta: Shazam999:

Astounding really, and of course a guy like Rev.K will vote Liberal in the next federal election, who will then promptly put in NEP2, and that'll be that for Calgary.

Now we disagree. The first NEP didn't trigger the recession, it only exacerbated it. Continuing to scapegoat it and Trudeau for the recession 40 years on is farking tiresome and simple-minded. Lougheed was at least smart and created the Heritage fund to shore Alberta up against future calamities, but now that's been pissed away. By who? Not by the federal Liberals. Alberta ought to have the finest education, healthcare, and innovative research and industry in the world with all that money coursing around, but instead all we have is inflated real estate and petroleum companies biatching and moaning if we dare to skim any off. All the eggs remain in one farking basket. We're the farking Beverly Hillbillies.


THIS.  Goddamit, THIS.
2014-01-16 01:05:22 PM
1 votes:

Flab: this is written by a realtor.  So yes, their world is collapsing around them because they can't make $100,000/wk in commissions anymore, and actually have to *gasp* schedule open-houses, and visits, and stuff, and how the Hell am I going to pay for that custom paint job on the new GLK?


Ah, then they should come down to the DC market.  I was looking for a place in the spring of last year.  All open houses were mobbed.  I mean, people lining up outside before the showing, and elbowing past each other to get a look at each of the rooms.  The realtors at these showings just sit back like kings and watch over their subjects, knowing their four hours of time was guaranteeing them a sale that was 20% over asking price and at least $10k in their pocket.

Google search results relevant:

i.imgur.com
2014-01-16 12:32:25 PM
1 votes:

Shazam999: OptionC: Flab: OptionC: Also, aren't most Canadian mortgages equivalent to a 5/1 ARM in the US?

Not quite.  They are fixed-rate long-term mortgages that get renegotiated every 5 years or so.  In other words, you get: a fixed-rate 25 year mortgage for five years at rate X, then after those 5 years, you renegotiate another fixed-rate 20 year mortgage for 7 years, because you think the rates are going to go up and you want to be safe, then after those 7 years, you renegotiatie a mixed-rate mortgage for 3 years, where half is fixed-rate, and the resl is a HLOC because you know you're going to have to redo the roof and the wife thinks it's time to remodel the kitchen, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years.

Are the renegotiated mortgages guaranteed to be available at some reasonable terms?  If not, that actually sounds like the pre-Great Depression era mortgage market in the US, which (obviously) did not turn out so well and led to the creation of the 30 year fixed-rate loan.

Also you can just keep amortizing over a 25 year period every time you renew.  This is what I do, because it keeps my minimum obligation low, just in case something horrible happens.  I just boost the payment, but I can lower it back down if I have to.


Doesn't that mean that you'll never actually own the house outright in a Xeno's paradox sort of way (assuming you made minimum payments)?
2014-01-16 12:31:40 PM
1 votes:

OptionC: Flab: The renegotiated rates are market rates at the time of renegotiation.  And if bank A doesn't offer good enough rates, but bank B does, you just switch to the new bank and pay a minimal penalty (that should be offset by the new rate you're getting at bank B).

Which is all well and good when things are humming along.  What happens if the banks suddenly get very risk averse (due to, I dunno, a housing market decline) and decide that someone who was a qualified buyer in year X is not a qualified buyer in year X+5?  Are they still obligated to offer a renegotiated mortgage?


Typically they'll offer to renew but at a higher interest rate.  You don't have to stay with them though.  Having said that, if it's a general market condition then every lender will have high interest rates.

This did happen in the 80s.  Housing prices crashed, interest rates were through the roof, and people just walked away from their homes.
2014-01-16 12:29:36 PM
1 votes:

Flab: The renegotiated rates are market rates at the time of renegotiation.  And if bank A doesn't offer good enough rates, but bank B does, you just switch to the new bank and pay a minimal penalty (that should be offset by the new rate you're getting at bank B).


Which is all well and good when things are humming along.  What happens if the banks suddenly get very risk averse (due to, I dunno, a housing market decline) and decide that someone who was a qualified buyer in year X is not a qualified buyer in year X+5?  Are they still obligated to offer a renegotiated mortgage?
2014-01-16 12:21:52 PM
1 votes:

CygnusDarius: Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.


The Vancouver housing market in a nutshell

I hope that job pays well.
2014-01-16 12:18:29 PM
1 votes:

Flab: OptionC: Also, aren't most Canadian mortgages equivalent to a 5/1 ARM in the US?

Not quite.  They are fixed-rate long-term mortgages that get renegotiated every 5 years or so.  In other words, you get: a fixed-rate 25 year mortgage for five years at rate X, then after those 5 years, you renegotiate another fixed-rate 20 year mortgage for 7 years, because you think the rates are going to go up and you want to be safe, then after those 7 years, you renegotiatie a mixed-rate mortgage for 3 years, where half is fixed-rate, and the resl is a HLOC because you know you're going to have to redo the roof and the wife thinks it's time to remodel the kitchen, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years.


Are the renegotiated mortgages guaranteed to be available at some reasonable terms?  If not, that actually sounds like the pre-Great Depression era mortgage market in the US, which (obviously) did not turn out so well and led to the creation of the 30 year fixed-rate loan.
2014-01-16 12:17:24 PM
1 votes:

Flab: OptionC: Also, aren't most Canadian mortgages equivalent to a 5/1 ARM in the US?

Not quite.  They are fixed-rate long-term mortgages that get renegotiated every 5 years or so.  In other words, you get: a fixed-rate 25 year mortgage for five years at rate X, then after those 5 years, you renegotiate another fixed-rate 20 year mortgage for 7 years, because you think the rates are going to go up and you want to be safe, then after those 7 years, you renegotiatie a mixed-rate mortgage for 3 years, where half is fixed-rate, and the resl is a HLOC because you know you're going to have to redo the roof and the wife thinks it's time to remodel the kitchen, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years.


WTF
2014-01-16 12:17:07 PM
1 votes:

SovietCanuckistan: All of Canada is in for a Real Estate shake up this year.

Prices = crazy high
Rates = crazy low
CDN Savings = nil
CDN Debt = record heights
Employment = shrinking weekly
Diversified = nope
All money into ONE investment = yup
CDN Dollar = sucks ass

Not going to be a crash, but people are going to wake up one day and see their mortgage going up as the value of their home goes down. Gonna be a rough year for Realtors, cannibalism will be rife.


Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.
2014-01-16 12:05:19 PM
1 votes:

Rev.K: SovietCanuckistan: The ONE investment refers to a home. A lot of people here have very little savings and they are counting on their home to increase in value without end. The average home in my city costs $527,763 (Dec 2013). People are leveraged to the tits and the only have money to pay the mortgage, not much else.

Calgary's vacancy rate at the moment is less than 1%

Calgary's unemployment is forecast to  decrease over the next few years.

Home values have continued to rise in the wake of the flood.

Home values have not substantially dropped since the crazy price increase of 2006-2007.


Calgary will be the exception to any sort of crash scenario. Growth is still strong and prices have held.


Ugg, and to think, you "oversee financial and budgeting policies for my municipality."  And you're 34.  No wonder the city's finances are in the toilet.
2014-01-16 12:04:40 PM
1 votes:

OptionC: Also, aren't most Canadian mortgages equivalent to a 5/1 ARM in the US?


Not quite.  They are fixed-rate long-term mortgages that get renegotiated every 5 years or so.  In other words, you get: a fixed-rate 25 year mortgage for five years at rate X, then after those 5 years, you renegotiate another fixed-rate 20 year mortgage for 7 years, because you think the rates are going to go up and you want to be safe, then after those 7 years, you renegotiatie a mixed-rate mortgage for 3 years, where half is fixed-rate, and the resl is a HLOC because you know you're going to have to redo the roof and the wife thinks it's time to remodel the kitchen, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years.
2014-01-16 11:56:54 AM
1 votes:

Primitive Screwhead: Montreal strippers are smoking hot to begin with. (granted I was 19 the last time I was there)
In a collapsing economy, I can only imagine the kind of talent working in the clubs these days.


The first time I went to a stripclub, was in Montreal. The great thing it was, during private dances, apart from the crotch area, you are allowed to touch.
2014-01-16 11:44:16 AM
1 votes:
Flab:

So when all of Canada's 34 million people live in Calgary, then what?

Housing gets cheap in the rest of Canada and they can all afford their old homes.  Duh.
2014-01-16 11:31:04 AM
1 votes:

Rev.K: TheAlgebraist: I'm not sure what incomes in that city are like,

Calgary is flush with cash. High salaries all around.

People have been predicting and waiting for a housing crash in Calgary since values skyrocketed in 2007 and it hasn't happened.


I hope you're right Rev.
Money is crazy here, but do not forget it is really tied into a fairly unstable commodity.
If the guys framing homes in Aspen Woods, Mahogany, Seton, et al start getting laid off, it could turn pertty fast.

But you are 100% correct, Calgary really has been immune to the greater market foibles across the country.
2014-01-16 11:30:28 AM
1 votes:
I blame that bastard Duddy. Suburban development. Sonofabiatch.
2014-01-16 11:25:57 AM
1 votes:

TheAlgebraist: I'm not sure what incomes in that city are like,


Calgary is flush with cash. High salaries all around.

People have been predicting and waiting for a housing crash in Calgary since values skyrocketed in 2007 and it hasn't happened.
2014-01-16 11:23:45 AM
1 votes:

SovietCanuckistan: The ONE investment refers to a home. A lot of people here have very little savings and they are counting on their home to increase in value without end. The average home in my city costs $527,763 (Dec 2013). People are leveraged to the tits and the only have money to pay the mortgage, not much else.


Calgary's vacancy rate at the moment is less than 1%

Calgary's unemployment is forecast to  decrease over the next few years.

Home values have continued to rise in the wake of the flood.

Home values have not substantially dropped since the crazy price increase of 2006-2007.


Calgary will be the exception to any sort of crash scenario. Growth is still strong and prices have held.
2014-01-16 11:22:55 AM
1 votes:
SovietCanuckistan:

The ONE investment refers to a home. A lot of people here have very little savings and they are counting on their home to increase in value without end. The average home in my city costs $527,763 (Dec 2013). People are leveraged to the tits and the only have money to pay the mortgage, not much else.

I'm not sure what incomes in that city are like, but across the country, median salary is something like $31,000, and average home price is something like $375,000.

To try and fend off a few math criticisms preemptively:  I know that comparing medians and means can be dicey.  And, I know what people well below median salary aren't expected to own houses.  However, Canada has a 70% (maybe higher) ownership rate, so there are a lot of people with household incomes below $50,000 trying to buy $300-500 thousand dollar homes.
2014-01-16 11:03:01 AM
1 votes:
I'm a renter in Montreal who should probably eventually buy but can't believe that the city approved five condo towers, one of 40 stories and two of 30 stories, to enter the market all within a year or two of each other. The market seems unlikely to support such a massive influx. Personally I prefer Edwardian three or four story buildings and would never choose to live in tower but still.
2014-01-16 11:01:19 AM
1 votes:

topcon: Number of people who will understand what "a louer" means here: 1 in 10000.


Put me on that list... I get what kind of joke they're going for here, but that's it.
2014-01-16 11:00:36 AM
1 votes:
Glad to see the yanks chiming-in from the urban wreckage of their subsidized economy.
Can you guys stop eating for a few seconds BEFORE bloviating? You're getting burger-horks all over the thread.
2014-01-16 10:59:08 AM
1 votes:
montreal is a temporary city for most, generally being because of the lack of work.  most come here to get their education or for temporary work, then leave for greener pastures.  thanks to quebec bureaucrats, companies have to face a lot of red tape and headaches just to do business here; unless the industry is specifically targeted for provincial government incentives.
without jobs, no one wants to buy the plethora of condos popping up everywhere this past year.
2014-01-16 10:58:18 AM
1 votes:

SovietCanuckistan: All of Canada is in for a Real Estate shake up this year.

Prices = crazy high
Rates = crazy low
CDN Savings = nil
CDN Debt = record heights
Employment = shrinking weekly
Diversified = nope
All money into ONE investment = yup
CDN Dollar = sucks ass

Not going to be a crash, but people are going to wake up one day and see their mortgage going up as the value of their home goes down. Gonna be a rough year for Realtors, cannibalism will be rife.


I'm watching this because I think Oz will follow.   Au savings is heading up and debt is heading down if you include all debt like gov't, home loans, credit cards, loan sharks.

Don't know about your "All money into ONE investment " but here everyone gets to put 9% of their pay into the stock market who throws it at companies that think putting a billion dollars into upgrading a single indoor mall makes sense.
2014-01-16 10:55:44 AM
1 votes:

TheAlgebraist: SovietCanuckistan:

Not going to be a crash,

Everyone says this.  I've never been through a RE crash before (and I don't know whether a country has ever had RE as overpriced as ours), and I wasn't really paying attention during the 2007-2008 stock market crash, but I wonder how much of the "There won't be a crash" talk is actual knowledge that there won't be a crash, and how much of it is "Well, if we say there won't be a crash then there might not be one, but if we say there might be one, then there will be one".

Toronto has something like 70,000 empty or under-construction condos, and 10% unemployment (higher than Windsor for the first time in recent memory)


I guess you could call it optimism. But there are some dark clouds on the horizon for sure. Once the guys building the condos are out of work, it is going to be a shiat-spiral and nobody really knows how far down it will go.
2014-01-16 10:45:41 AM
1 votes:
All of Canada is in for a Real Estate shake up this year.

Prices = crazy high
Rates = crazy low
CDN Savings = nil
CDN Debt = record heights
Employment = shrinking weekly
Diversified = nope
All money into ONE investment = yup
CDN Dollar = sucks ass

Not going to be a crash, but people are going to wake up one day and see their mortgage going up as the value of their home goes down. Gonna be a rough year for Realtors, cannibalism will be rife.
2014-01-16 10:44:15 AM
1 votes:

Bug2k: I'm getting a kick out these comments... because my wife is the Montreal Gazette's real estate reporter. We're in a dilemma. I have a great job at McGill University, largely protected from all the language BS. She's in a dying industry and itching to leave the province. We have a nice house in the central downtown area. I hope it's worth something when I finally decide to move to another province.


Yeah, but if it's not, chances are the place you buy will be cheaper too.

If you're really worried, sell, rent, and hope hyperinflation doesn't have us all eating $12,000 cans of cold beans in five years.
2014-01-16 10:43:05 AM
1 votes:
Montreal strippers are smoking hot to begin with. (granted I was 19 the last time I was there)
In a collapsing economy, I can only imagine the kind of talent working in the clubs these days.
2014-01-16 10:40:55 AM
1 votes:
In Quebec, "à louer" means "for rent".

www.lesaffaires.com
2014-01-16 10:40:07 AM
1 votes:
Maybe this will force them to all go back to France? That would be best.
2014-01-16 10:32:56 AM
1 votes:
Is this a Canadian joke?
2014-01-16 10:25:17 AM
1 votes:
Dude, that town has been like that for years.
And you know what?
With the Frog language police up there, they are reaping what they have sewn. You want to be a fake frog? Move to Quebec City, you wannabe surrender moneys. Leave Montreal alone. It's the Austin of Canada.
 
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