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(Some Guy)   Montreal real estate market collapsing so quickly that this 'Al Louer' guy seems to own most of the Montreal buildings these days. His signs are just everywhere   (marketwired.com ) divider line
    More: Interesting, Montreal real estate market, Montreal, GMREB Board of Directors, North Shore  
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8825 clicks; posted to Main » on 16 Jan 2014 at 10:30 AM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



130 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2014-01-16 10:23:10 AM  
"The effects of the more restrictive mortgage rules that came into effect in July 2012 continued to be felt in 2013," said Diane Ménard, Vice-President of the GMREB Board of Directors and spokesperson for the Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards (QFREB) for the Montréal area.

Hum... No.  That's what you'd like to think, because you can them blame the evil government who no longer allows 40 year, zero-down mortgages.  This guy has a better explanation:

"The Montréal real estate market, which was generally a seller's market, underwent a rebalancing in 2013, caused by a slowdown in sales and an increase in supply," said Paul Cardinal, Manager of the Market Analysis Department at the Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards. "The relaxing of market conditions was more pronounced for condominiums: after becoming balanced in 2012, conditions for this property category shifted to a buyer's market in 2013," he added.

Yep.  Condo towers are popping up all over the place, while the population doesn't grow as fast...  Offer is greater than demand, and no one wants a $350,000 600sq.ft. condo overlooking the Turcot interchange, evn if it has marble countertops.
 
2014-01-16 10:25:17 AM  
Dude, that town has been like that for years.
And you know what?
With the Frog language police up there, they are reaping what they have sewn. You want to be a fake frog? Move to Quebec City, you wannabe surrender moneys. Leave Montreal alone. It's the Austin of Canada.
 
2014-01-16 10:31:52 AM  
Love child of Al Roker and Matt Lauer?
 
2014-01-16 10:32:07 AM  
danspapers.com
 
2014-01-16 10:32:56 AM  
Is this a Canadian joke?
 
2014-01-16 10:33:58 AM  
Number of people who will understand what "a louer" means here: 1 in 10000.
 
2014-01-16 10:34:43 AM  
I don't get it.
 
2014-01-16 10:35:20 AM  

Mangoose: Is this a Canadian joke?


I think Canada is a joke..
 
2014-01-16 10:38:23 AM  
I'm getting a kick out these comments... because my wife is the Montreal Gazette's real estate reporter. We're in a dilemma. I have a great job at McGill University, largely protected from all the language BS. She's in a dying industry and itching to leave the province. We have a nice house in the central downtown area. I hope it's worth something when I finally decide to move to another province.
 
2014-01-16 10:40:07 AM  
Maybe this will force them to all go back to France? That would be best.
 
2014-01-16 10:40:31 AM  

Cybernetic: I don't get it.


It means for rent, in French.
 
2014-01-16 10:40:55 AM  
In Quebec, "à louer" means "for rent".

www.lesaffaires.com
 
2014-01-16 10:42:49 AM  
CSB:

Flew to Montreal a few years back with my son to see a concert and stayed downtown.  Upon noticing the condition of the city, we decided to have a 2 day competition:  Find any public or public works surface (i.e. benches, signs, bridges, etc) with no graffiti on them.  The final score was 0 to 0.

I was hoping for a Euro style trip without travelling so far.  Instead, we went to Detroit en francais.

You're welcome.
 
2014-01-16 10:43:05 AM  
Montreal strippers are smoking hot to begin with. (granted I was 19 the last time I was there)
In a collapsing economy, I can only imagine the kind of talent working in the clubs these days.
 
2014-01-16 10:44:15 AM  

Bug2k: I'm getting a kick out these comments... because my wife is the Montreal Gazette's real estate reporter. We're in a dilemma. I have a great job at McGill University, largely protected from all the language BS. She's in a dying industry and itching to leave the province. We have a nice house in the central downtown area. I hope it's worth something when I finally decide to move to another province.


Yeah, but if it's not, chances are the place you buy will be cheaper too.

If you're really worried, sell, rent, and hope hyperinflation doesn't have us all eating $12,000 cans of cold beans in five years.
 
2014-01-16 10:45:41 AM  
All of Canada is in for a Real Estate shake up this year.

Prices = crazy high
Rates = crazy low
CDN Savings = nil
CDN Debt = record heights
Employment = shrinking weekly
Diversified = nope
All money into ONE investment = yup
CDN Dollar = sucks ass

Not going to be a crash, but people are going to wake up one day and see their mortgage going up as the value of their home goes down. Gonna be a rough year for Realtors, cannibalism will be rife.
 
2014-01-16 10:47:58 AM  
Ahhh, another french canadian hate thread. It had been a while.
 
2014-01-16 10:51:27 AM  
SovietCanuckistan:

Not going to be a crash,

Everyone says this.  I've never been through a RE crash before (and I don't know whether a country has ever had RE as overpriced as ours), and I wasn't really paying attention during the 2007-2008 stock market crash, but I wonder how much of the "There won't be a crash" talk is actual knowledge that there won't be a crash, and how much of it is "Well, if we say there won't be a crash then there might not be one, but if we say there might be one, then there will be one".

Toronto has something like 70,000 empty or under-construction condos, and 10% unemployment (higher than Windsor for the first time in recent memory)
 
2014-01-16 10:55:22 AM  
Meh.  Hairy, flannel wearing white people problems.
 
2014-01-16 10:55:26 AM  
TheAlgebraist:
Toronto has something like 70,000 empty or under-construction condos, and 10% unemployment (higher than Windsor for the first time in recent memory)

...so best hope you don't have both a Toronto condo and a need to sell for a while.
 
2014-01-16 10:55:44 AM  

TheAlgebraist: SovietCanuckistan:

Not going to be a crash,

Everyone says this.  I've never been through a RE crash before (and I don't know whether a country has ever had RE as overpriced as ours), and I wasn't really paying attention during the 2007-2008 stock market crash, but I wonder how much of the "There won't be a crash" talk is actual knowledge that there won't be a crash, and how much of it is "Well, if we say there won't be a crash then there might not be one, but if we say there might be one, then there will be one".

Toronto has something like 70,000 empty or under-construction condos, and 10% unemployment (higher than Windsor for the first time in recent memory)


I guess you could call it optimism. But there are some dark clouds on the horizon for sure. Once the guys building the condos are out of work, it is going to be a shiat-spiral and nobody really knows how far down it will go.
 
2014-01-16 10:56:43 AM  
SovietCanuckistan:

I guess you could call it optimism. But there are some dark clouds on the horizon for sure. Once the guys building the condos are out of work, it is going to be a shiat-spiral and nobody really knows how far down it will go.

And unlike our cousins to the south, we can't even hoard guns and ammo.   Time to sharpen that hockey stick again I suppose.
 
2014-01-16 10:58:18 AM  

SovietCanuckistan: All of Canada is in for a Real Estate shake up this year.

Prices = crazy high
Rates = crazy low
CDN Savings = nil
CDN Debt = record heights
Employment = shrinking weekly
Diversified = nope
All money into ONE investment = yup
CDN Dollar = sucks ass

Not going to be a crash, but people are going to wake up one day and see their mortgage going up as the value of their home goes down. Gonna be a rough year for Realtors, cannibalism will be rife.


I'm watching this because I think Oz will follow.   Au savings is heading up and debt is heading down if you include all debt like gov't, home loans, credit cards, loan sharks.

Don't know about your "All money into ONE investment " but here everyone gets to put 9% of their pay into the stock market who throws it at companies that think putting a billion dollars into upgrading a single indoor mall makes sense.
 
2014-01-16 10:59:08 AM  
montreal is a temporary city for most, generally being because of the lack of work.  most come here to get their education or for temporary work, then leave for greener pastures.  thanks to quebec bureaucrats, companies have to face a lot of red tape and headaches just to do business here; unless the industry is specifically targeted for provincial government incentives.
without jobs, no one wants to buy the plethora of condos popping up everywhere this past year.
 
2014-01-16 11:00:36 AM  
Glad to see the yanks chiming-in from the urban wreckage of their subsidized economy.
Can you guys stop eating for a few seconds BEFORE bloviating? You're getting burger-horks all over the thread.
 
2014-01-16 11:01:19 AM  

topcon: Number of people who will understand what "a louer" means here: 1 in 10000.


Put me on that list... I get what kind of joke they're going for here, but that's it.
 
2014-01-16 11:03:01 AM  
I'm a renter in Montreal who should probably eventually buy but can't believe that the city approved five condo towers, one of 40 stories and two of 30 stories, to enter the market all within a year or two of each other. The market seems unlikely to support such a massive influx. Personally I prefer Edwardian three or four story buildings and would never choose to live in tower but still.
 
2014-01-16 11:03:12 AM  

Atomgirl: Ahhh, another french canadian hate thread. It had been a while.


Ahh the quebecois.  Was playing a pvp mmo long ago and in our oversized guild we had a guy I chatted with daily, REAAAALLLy thick hard to understand accent.  Thought for weeks that he was from norway or some russian republic.  Finally found out he was from Quebec, really threw me off.  So were all in chat, you know ganking and drinking and I start ragging on him about being french canadian and making fun of the recent politcal farkups happening there at the time.  He goes on a rant about how canada hates the quebecois, everybody farking hates the quebecois.  Its so bad he says, that even the farking quebecois hate the farking quebecois.  Its the most impolite I have ever heard a canadian get, was hilarious though.

I miss hanging out with him.
 
2014-01-16 11:04:30 AM  
Not getting it
 
2014-01-16 11:09:17 AM  

trappedspirit: Not getting it


à louer = means "for rent" in French.

Signs on places that are for rent in France or in French Canada or anywhere else where French is prevalent might have a sign that says "à louer"  on them.

Ergo the joke about a sign saying "AL louer" all over the place.
 
2014-01-16 11:12:36 AM  

DON.MAC: SovietCanuckistan: All of Canada is in for a Real Estate shake up this year.

Prices = crazy high
Rates = crazy low
CDN Savings = nil
CDN Debt = record heights
Employment = shrinking weekly
Diversified = nope
All money into ONE investment = yup
CDN Dollar = sucks ass

Not going to be a crash, but people are going to wake up one day and see their mortgage going up as the value of their home goes down. Gonna be a rough year for Realtors, cannibalism will be rife.

I'm watching this because I think Oz will follow.   Au savings is heading up and debt is heading down if you include all debt like gov't, home loans, credit cards, loan sharks.

Don't know about your "All money into ONE investment " but here everyone gets to put 9% of their pay into the stock market who throws it at companies that think putting a billion dollars into upgrading a single indoor mall makes sense.


The ONE investment refers to a home. A lot of people here have very little savings and they are counting on their home to increase in value without end. The average home in my city costs $527,763 (Dec 2013). People are leveraged to the tits and the only have money to pay the mortgage, not much else.
 
2014-01-16 11:14:36 AM  

Atomgirl: Ahhh, another french canadian hate thread. It had been a while.


Yep.
 
2014-01-16 11:22:06 AM  

LemSkroob: Maybe this will force them to all go back to France? That would be best.


Are you also in favor of deporting all those illegal immigrants currently living in the southern states back to Spain?
 
2014-01-16 11:22:55 AM  
SovietCanuckistan:

The ONE investment refers to a home. A lot of people here have very little savings and they are counting on their home to increase in value without end. The average home in my city costs $527,763 (Dec 2013). People are leveraged to the tits and the only have money to pay the mortgage, not much else.

I'm not sure what incomes in that city are like, but across the country, median salary is something like $31,000, and average home price is something like $375,000.

To try and fend off a few math criticisms preemptively:  I know that comparing medians and means can be dicey.  And, I know what people well below median salary aren't expected to own houses.  However, Canada has a 70% (maybe higher) ownership rate, so there are a lot of people with household incomes below $50,000 trying to buy $300-500 thousand dollar homes.
 
2014-01-16 11:23:45 AM  

SovietCanuckistan: The ONE investment refers to a home. A lot of people here have very little savings and they are counting on their home to increase in value without end. The average home in my city costs $527,763 (Dec 2013). People are leveraged to the tits and the only have money to pay the mortgage, not much else.


Calgary's vacancy rate at the moment is less than 1%

Calgary's unemployment is forecast to  decrease over the next few years.

Home values have continued to rise in the wake of the flood.

Home values have not substantially dropped since the crazy price increase of 2006-2007.


Calgary will be the exception to any sort of crash scenario. Growth is still strong and prices have held.
 
2014-01-16 11:25:57 AM  

TheAlgebraist: I'm not sure what incomes in that city are like,


Calgary is flush with cash. High salaries all around.

People have been predicting and waiting for a housing crash in Calgary since values skyrocketed in 2007 and it hasn't happened.
 
2014-01-16 11:30:28 AM  
I blame that bastard Duddy. Suburban development. Sonofabiatch.
 
2014-01-16 11:30:32 AM  
Rev.K:

Calgary will be the exception to any sort of crash scenario. Growth is still strong and prices have held.

I have little interest in the Calgary housing market, but I will point out that anytime someone identifies the ONE place that is somehow immune to the economic forces that apply everywhere else, they just happen to live in the place that is special.  And have a greater-than-average chance of benefitting from the magical-ness (e.g. owning a house)

Interest rates rise and fall.  Self-interest rates never drop.
 
2014-01-16 11:31:04 AM  

Rev.K: TheAlgebraist: I'm not sure what incomes in that city are like,

Calgary is flush with cash. High salaries all around.

People have been predicting and waiting for a housing crash in Calgary since values skyrocketed in 2007 and it hasn't happened.


I hope you're right Rev.
Money is crazy here, but do not forget it is really tied into a fairly unstable commodity.
If the guys framing homes in Aspen Woods, Mahogany, Seton, et al start getting laid off, it could turn pertty fast.

But you are 100% correct, Calgary really has been immune to the greater market foibles across the country.
 
2014-01-16 11:33:34 AM  

SovietCanuckistan: The ONE investment refers to a home. A lot of people here have very little savings and they are counting on their home to increase in value without end. The average home in my city costs $527,763 (Dec 2013). People are leveraged to the tits and the only have money to pay the mortgage, not much else.


That works if there is a never ending supply of new people with money to a city and you want to downgrade your house size in time.  I wonder what will be the cap here.

I've always wondered why there aren't more GDP increase vs population increase graphs.  I'm guessing they don't tell a useful story.
 
2014-01-16 11:37:10 AM  

Rev.K: TheAlgebraist: I'm not sure what incomes in that city are like,

Calgary is flush with cash. High salaries all around.

People have been predicting and waiting for a housing crash in Calgary since values skyrocketed in 2007 and it hasn't happened.


The Energy biz in finicky.  A downward swing could prove catastrophic here, and that should always be kept in mind.  It wouldn't be the first(or second) time things went south here.

I certainly wouldn't be buying a condo in this city, given the amount of construction going on.  I still can't figure out why people pay $400 000 for a 600 sqft condo downtown when they can go 5 km out, pay 450 000 and get a house with actual land.Or for some reason people go 15-25km out, pay the same price and live with the horrible commute.
 
2014-01-16 11:42:49 AM  

Rev.K: SovietCanuckistan: The ONE investment refers to a home. A lot of people here have very little savings and they are counting on their home to increase in value without end. The average home in my city costs $527,763 (Dec 2013). People are leveraged to the tits and the only have money to pay the mortgage, not much else.

Calgary's vacancy rate at the moment is less than 1%

Calgary's unemployment is forecast to  decrease over the next few years.

Home values have continued to rise in the wake of the flood.

Home values have not substantially dropped since the crazy price increase of 2006-2007.


Calgary will be the exception to any sort of crash scenario. Growth is still strong and prices have held.



So when all of Canada's 34 million people live in Calgary, then what?
 
2014-01-16 11:44:16 AM  
Flab:

So when all of Canada's 34 million people live in Calgary, then what?

Housing gets cheap in the rest of Canada and they can all afford their old homes.  Duh.
 
2014-01-16 11:46:34 AM  

LemSkroob: Maybe this will force them to all go back to France? That would be best.


My ancestors left France 400 years ago for a reason.  I'm not going back there!
 
2014-01-16 11:46:35 AM  
Can you see the CN tower from Montreal? This is important.

www.englishbaby.com
 
2014-01-16 11:47:52 AM  
Yup, this looks sustainable:

2.bp.blogspot.com

Also, aren't most Canadian mortgages equivalent to a 5/1 ARM in the US?  If this is indeed the case, it would make the market very sensitive to interest rates...
 
2014-01-16 11:47:55 AM  

TheShavingofOccam123: Can you see the CN tower from Montreal? This is important.

[www.englishbaby.com image 311x400]


I mortgage that to the tits
 
2014-01-16 11:51:22 AM  

TheShavingofOccam123: Can you see the CN tower from Montreal? This is important.

[www.englishbaby.com image 311x400]


I'm sorry what?
 
2014-01-16 11:53:11 AM  
Wow, that's a relief!

I'd be really scared if they were all owned by Al Vendre
 
2014-01-16 11:56:54 AM  

Primitive Screwhead: Montreal strippers are smoking hot to begin with. (granted I was 19 the last time I was there)
In a collapsing economy, I can only imagine the kind of talent working in the clubs these days.


The first time I went to a stripclub, was in Montreal. The great thing it was, during private dances, apart from the crotch area, you are allowed to touch.
 
2014-01-16 11:58:32 AM  

unitednihilists: Mangoose: Is this a Canadian joke?

I think Canada is a joke..


i'm canadian, and i had to google it. my french isn't that good.
 
2014-01-16 12:00:02 PM  

orclover: TheShavingofOccam123: Can you see the CN tower from Montreal? This is important.

[www.englishbaby.com image 311x400]

I'm sorry what?


Did you say something?
 
2014-01-16 12:04:17 PM  

Savage Bacon: Atomgirl: Ahhh, another french canadian hate thread. It had been a while.

Yep.


Yeah, but we've been making up for it with "Canadian Ted" hate threads, which is nice.
 
2014-01-16 12:04:40 PM  

OptionC: Also, aren't most Canadian mortgages equivalent to a 5/1 ARM in the US?


Not quite.  They are fixed-rate long-term mortgages that get renegotiated every 5 years or so.  In other words, you get: a fixed-rate 25 year mortgage for five years at rate X, then after those 5 years, you renegotiate another fixed-rate 20 year mortgage for 7 years, because you think the rates are going to go up and you want to be safe, then after those 7 years, you renegotiatie a mixed-rate mortgage for 3 years, where half is fixed-rate, and the resl is a HLOC because you know you're going to have to redo the roof and the wife thinks it's time to remodel the kitchen, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years.
 
2014-01-16 12:04:50 PM  
Looks like it's "A Louer" not "Al Louer," submitter. That one letter makes a difference.
 
2014-01-16 12:05:19 PM  

Rev.K: SovietCanuckistan: The ONE investment refers to a home. A lot of people here have very little savings and they are counting on their home to increase in value without end. The average home in my city costs $527,763 (Dec 2013). People are leveraged to the tits and the only have money to pay the mortgage, not much else.

Calgary's vacancy rate at the moment is less than 1%

Calgary's unemployment is forecast to  decrease over the next few years.

Home values have continued to rise in the wake of the flood.

Home values have not substantially dropped since the crazy price increase of 2006-2007.


Calgary will be the exception to any sort of crash scenario. Growth is still strong and prices have held.


Ugg, and to think, you "oversee financial and budgeting policies for my municipality."  And you're 34.  No wonder the city's finances are in the toilet.
 
2014-01-16 12:07:42 PM  

Flab: OptionC: Also, aren't most Canadian mortgages equivalent to a 5/1 ARM in the US?

Not quite.  They are fixed-rate long-term mortgages that get renegotiated every 5 years or so.  In other words, you get: a fixed-rate 25 year mortgage for five years at rate X, then after those 5 years, you renegotiate another fixed-rate 20 year mortgage for 7 years, because you think the rates are going to go up and you want to be safe, then after those 7 years, you renegotiatie a mixed-rate mortgage for 3 years, where half is fixed-rate, and the rest is a HELOC because you know you're going to have to redo the roof and the wife thinks it's time to remodel the kitchen, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years, then you renegotiate a 10 5 year fixed rate mortgage for the 5 more last years.


/FTFM.
//Re-reading what you wrote is for sissies.
 
2014-01-16 12:08:19 PM  
Headline: Montreal real estate market collapsing.

Article: Half of all single-family homes were sold at a price higher than $225,000, which is stable compared to 2012. The median price of condominiums and plexes also remained relatively stable in 2013, as both property categories registered a slight increase of 1 per cent. Four of the province's six Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) continued to post increases in the median price of single-family homes in 2013: Montréal (+2 per cent), Sherbrooke (+2 per cent), Québec City (+3 per cent) and Saguenay (+3 per cent). However, these increases are smaller than those registered in 2012. Finally, the median price of single-family homes remained stable in Gatineau and decreased slightly in Trois-Rivières (-1 per cent).

Okay, so prices remained pretty much the same for two years in a row now. How does this equal "collapse"?  Is it because sales are down?
 
2014-01-16 12:13:21 PM  

valkore: How does this equal "collapse"? Is it because sales are down?


this is written by a realtor.  So yes, their world is collapsing around them because they can't make $100,000/wk in commissions anymore, and actually have to *gasp* schedule open-houses, and visits, and stuff, and how the Hell am I going to pay for that custom paint job on the new GLK?
 
2014-01-16 12:17:07 PM  

SovietCanuckistan: All of Canada is in for a Real Estate shake up this year.

Prices = crazy high
Rates = crazy low
CDN Savings = nil
CDN Debt = record heights
Employment = shrinking weekly
Diversified = nope
All money into ONE investment = yup
CDN Dollar = sucks ass

Not going to be a crash, but people are going to wake up one day and see their mortgage going up as the value of their home goes down. Gonna be a rough year for Realtors, cannibalism will be rife.


Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.
 
2014-01-16 12:17:24 PM  

Flab: OptionC: Also, aren't most Canadian mortgages equivalent to a 5/1 ARM in the US?

Not quite.  They are fixed-rate long-term mortgages that get renegotiated every 5 years or so.  In other words, you get: a fixed-rate 25 year mortgage for five years at rate X, then after those 5 years, you renegotiate another fixed-rate 20 year mortgage for 7 years, because you think the rates are going to go up and you want to be safe, then after those 7 years, you renegotiatie a mixed-rate mortgage for 3 years, where half is fixed-rate, and the resl is a HLOC because you know you're going to have to redo the roof and the wife thinks it's time to remodel the kitchen, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years.


WTF
 
2014-01-16 12:18:29 PM  

Flab: OptionC: Also, aren't most Canadian mortgages equivalent to a 5/1 ARM in the US?

Not quite.  They are fixed-rate long-term mortgages that get renegotiated every 5 years or so.  In other words, you get: a fixed-rate 25 year mortgage for five years at rate X, then after those 5 years, you renegotiate another fixed-rate 20 year mortgage for 7 years, because you think the rates are going to go up and you want to be safe, then after those 7 years, you renegotiatie a mixed-rate mortgage for 3 years, where half is fixed-rate, and the resl is a HLOC because you know you're going to have to redo the roof and the wife thinks it's time to remodel the kitchen, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years.


Are the renegotiated mortgages guaranteed to be available at some reasonable terms?  If not, that actually sounds like the pre-Great Depression era mortgage market in the US, which (obviously) did not turn out so well and led to the creation of the 30 year fixed-rate loan.
 
2014-01-16 12:21:52 PM  

CygnusDarius: Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.


The Vancouver housing market in a nutshell

I hope that job pays well.
 
2014-01-16 12:23:23 PM  

OptionC: Flab: OptionC: Also, aren't most Canadian mortgages equivalent to a 5/1 ARM in the US?

Not quite.  They are fixed-rate long-term mortgages that get renegotiated every 5 years or so.  In other words, you get: a fixed-rate 25 year mortgage for five years at rate X, then after those 5 years, you renegotiate another fixed-rate 20 year mortgage for 7 years, because you think the rates are going to go up and you want to be safe, then after those 7 years, you renegotiatie a mixed-rate mortgage for 3 years, where half is fixed-rate, and the resl is a HLOC because you know you're going to have to redo the roof and the wife thinks it's time to remodel the kitchen, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years.

Are the renegotiated mortgages guaranteed to be available at some reasonable terms?  If not, that actually sounds like the pre-Great Depression era mortgage market in the US, which (obviously) did not turn out so well and led to the creation of the 30 year fixed-rate loan.


The renegotiated rates are market rates at the time of renegotiation.  And if bank A doesn't offer good enough rates, but bank B does, you just switch to the new bank and pay a minimal penalty (that should be offset by the new rate you're getting at bank B).
 
2014-01-16 12:26:58 PM  
Ah louer, eh? Jaunty ah louer, eh?
 
2014-01-16 12:27:04 PM  

OptionC: Flab: OptionC: Also, aren't most Canadian mortgages equivalent to a 5/1 ARM in the US?

Not quite.  They are fixed-rate long-term mortgages that get renegotiated every 5 years or so.  In other words, you get: a fixed-rate 25 year mortgage for five years at rate X, then after those 5 years, you renegotiate another fixed-rate 20 year mortgage for 7 years, because you think the rates are going to go up and you want to be safe, then after those 7 years, you renegotiatie a mixed-rate mortgage for 3 years, where half is fixed-rate, and the resl is a HLOC because you know you're going to have to redo the roof and the wife thinks it's time to remodel the kitchen, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years.

Are the renegotiated mortgages guaranteed to be available at some reasonable terms?  If not, that actually sounds like the pre-Great Depression era mortgage market in the US, which (obviously) did not turn out so well and led to the creation of the 30 year fixed-rate loan.


There's also variable-rate mortgages here too.

You can just google "Canadian mortgage rates".  Those are the rates people pay.
 
2014-01-16 12:29:36 PM  

Flab: The renegotiated rates are market rates at the time of renegotiation.  And if bank A doesn't offer good enough rates, but bank B does, you just switch to the new bank and pay a minimal penalty (that should be offset by the new rate you're getting at bank B).


Which is all well and good when things are humming along.  What happens if the banks suddenly get very risk averse (due to, I dunno, a housing market decline) and decide that someone who was a qualified buyer in year X is not a qualified buyer in year X+5?  Are they still obligated to offer a renegotiated mortgage?
 
2014-01-16 12:29:41 PM  

OptionC: Flab: OptionC: Also, aren't most Canadian mortgages equivalent to a 5/1 ARM in the US?

Not quite.  They are fixed-rate long-term mortgages that get renegotiated every 5 years or so.  In other words, you get: a fixed-rate 25 year mortgage for five years at rate X, then after those 5 years, you renegotiate another fixed-rate 20 year mortgage for 7 years, because you think the rates are going to go up and you want to be safe, then after those 7 years, you renegotiatie a mixed-rate mortgage for 3 years, where half is fixed-rate, and the resl is a HLOC because you know you're going to have to redo the roof and the wife thinks it's time to remodel the kitchen, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years.

Are the renegotiated mortgages guaranteed to be available at some reasonable terms?  If not, that actually sounds like the pre-Great Depression era mortgage market in the US, which (obviously) did not turn out so well and led to the creation of the 30 year fixed-rate loan.


Also you can just keep amortizing over a 25 year period every time you renew.  This is what I do, because it keeps my minimum obligation low, just in case something horrible happens.  I just boost the payment, but I can lower it back down if I have to.
 
2014-01-16 12:30:06 PM  

Atomgirl: Ahhh, another french canadian hate thread. It had been a while.


And your point is...?
 
2014-01-16 12:31:40 PM  

OptionC: Flab: The renegotiated rates are market rates at the time of renegotiation.  And if bank A doesn't offer good enough rates, but bank B does, you just switch to the new bank and pay a minimal penalty (that should be offset by the new rate you're getting at bank B).

Which is all well and good when things are humming along.  What happens if the banks suddenly get very risk averse (due to, I dunno, a housing market decline) and decide that someone who was a qualified buyer in year X is not a qualified buyer in year X+5?  Are they still obligated to offer a renegotiated mortgage?


Typically they'll offer to renew but at a higher interest rate.  You don't have to stay with them though.  Having said that, if it's a general market condition then every lender will have high interest rates.

This did happen in the 80s.  Housing prices crashed, interest rates were through the roof, and people just walked away from their homes.
 
2014-01-16 12:32:25 PM  

Shazam999: OptionC: Flab: OptionC: Also, aren't most Canadian mortgages equivalent to a 5/1 ARM in the US?

Not quite.  They are fixed-rate long-term mortgages that get renegotiated every 5 years or so.  In other words, you get: a fixed-rate 25 year mortgage for five years at rate X, then after those 5 years, you renegotiate another fixed-rate 20 year mortgage for 7 years, because you think the rates are going to go up and you want to be safe, then after those 7 years, you renegotiatie a mixed-rate mortgage for 3 years, where half is fixed-rate, and the resl is a HLOC because you know you're going to have to redo the roof and the wife thinks it's time to remodel the kitchen, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years.

Are the renegotiated mortgages guaranteed to be available at some reasonable terms?  If not, that actually sounds like the pre-Great Depression era mortgage market in the US, which (obviously) did not turn out so well and led to the creation of the 30 year fixed-rate loan.

Also you can just keep amortizing over a 25 year period every time you renew.  This is what I do, because it keeps my minimum obligation low, just in case something horrible happens.  I just boost the payment, but I can lower it back down if I have to.


Doesn't that mean that you'll never actually own the house outright in a Xeno's paradox sort of way (assuming you made minimum payments)?
 
2014-01-16 12:33:49 PM  

OptionC: Shazam999: OptionC: Flab: OptionC: Also, aren't most Canadian mortgages equivalent to a 5/1 ARM in the US?

Not quite.  They are fixed-rate long-term mortgages that get renegotiated every 5 years or so.  In other words, you get: a fixed-rate 25 year mortgage for five years at rate X, then after those 5 years, you renegotiate another fixed-rate 20 year mortgage for 7 years, because you think the rates are going to go up and you want to be safe, then after those 7 years, you renegotiatie a mixed-rate mortgage for 3 years, where half is fixed-rate, and the resl is a HLOC because you know you're going to have to redo the roof and the wife thinks it's time to remodel the kitchen, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years, then you renegotiate a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for 5 more years.

Are the renegotiated mortgages guaranteed to be available at some reasonable terms?  If not, that actually sounds like the pre-Great Depression era mortgage market in the US, which (obviously) did not turn out so well and led to the creation of the 30 year fixed-rate loan.

Also you can just keep amortizing over a 25 year period every time you renew.  This is what I do, because it keeps my minimum obligation low, just in case something horrible happens.  I just boost the payment, but I can lower it back down if I have to.

Doesn't that mean that you'll never actually own the house outright in a Xeno's paradox sort of way (assuming you made minimum payments)?


Pretty much, yeah.  It's Canada's dirty little secret.
 
2014-01-16 12:38:07 PM  
Glad I moved east instead of buying a condo in the GTA, and glad I got a 5 year fixed rate. Home prices are already below what they should be, where I am now (Fredericton) so I don't expect a big drop here.
 
2014-01-16 12:39:28 PM  

OptionC: Flab: The renegotiated rates are market rates at the time of renegotiation.  And if bank A doesn't offer good enough rates, but bank B does, you just switch to the new bank and pay a minimal penalty (that should be offset by the new rate you're getting at bank B).

Which is all well and good when things are humming along.  What happens if the banks suddenly get very risk averse (due to, I dunno, a housing market decline) and decide that someone who was a qualified buyer in year X is not a qualified buyer in year X+5?  Are they still obligated to offer a renegotiated mortgage?


No, they can ask you to pay in full for the remainder of what you owe.  ( link )
 
2014-01-16 12:42:46 PM  

Shazam999: Ugg, and to think, you "oversee financial and budgeting policies for my municipality."  And you're 34.  No wonder the city's finances are in the toilet.


Ok, Greenspan. Give it to me straight.
 
2014-01-16 12:44:12 PM  

Flab: So when all of Canada's 34 million people live in Calgary, then what?


I sell my house, make a ton of money and move somewhere else.

Of course, to grow to 34 million might take a few centuries, so perhaps I won't be around anyway.
 
2014-01-16 12:52:34 PM  

Rev.K: Shazam999: Ugg, and to think, you "oversee financial and budgeting policies for my municipality."  And you're 34.  No wonder the city's finances are in the toilet.

Ok, Greenspan. Give it to me straight.


Well right to the ad hominem attack.  Impressive.
 
2014-01-16 12:53:25 PM  

Rev.K: Shazam999: Ugg, and to think, you "oversee financial and budgeting policies for my municipality."  And you're 34.  No wonder the city's finances are in the toilet.

Ok, Greenspan. Give it to me straight.


Wait, it's 10:53am.  Shouldn't you be working?
 
2014-01-16 12:57:36 PM  
i49.tinypic.com
I don't understand the headline and i won't respond to it.
 
2014-01-16 01:01:09 PM  

Shazam999: Well right to the ad hominem attack.  Impressive.


Because you were oh so pleasant to me.

Ugg, and to think, you "oversee financial and budgeting policies for my municipality."  And you're 34.  No wonder the city's finances are in the toilet.
 
2014-01-16 01:05:22 PM  

Flab: this is written by a realtor.  So yes, their world is collapsing around them because they can't make $100,000/wk in commissions anymore, and actually have to *gasp* schedule open-houses, and visits, and stuff, and how the Hell am I going to pay for that custom paint job on the new GLK?


Ah, then they should come down to the DC market.  I was looking for a place in the spring of last year.  All open houses were mobbed.  I mean, people lining up outside before the showing, and elbowing past each other to get a look at each of the rooms.  The realtors at these showings just sit back like kings and watch over their subjects, knowing their four hours of time was guaranteeing them a sale that was 20% over asking price and at least $10k in their pocket.

Google search results relevant:

i.imgur.com
 
2014-01-16 01:10:17 PM  

oldfarthenry: You're getting burger-horks all over the thread.


*adds to vocabulary*
 
2014-01-16 01:19:19 PM  

Rev.K: SovietCanuckistan: The ONE investment refers to a home. A lot of people here have very little savings and they are counting on their home to increase in value without end. The average home in my city costs $527,763 (Dec 2013). People are leveraged to the tits and the only have money to pay the mortgage, not much else.

Calgary's vacancy rate at the moment is less than 1%

Calgary's unemployment is forecast to  decrease over the next few years.

Home values have continued to rise in the wake of the flood.

Home values have not substantially dropped since the crazy price increase of 2006-2007.


Calgary will be the exception to any sort of crash scenario. Growth is still strong and prices have held.


Yikes. 34 years old, huh. And looking after municipal finances. Eep. That's cute that you think Alberta is immune to recession. Tell your elders the above and ask them why they're chuckling and shaking their heads. Jesus, kids these days.

Ahem.

*Cough*

All the activity we're seeing is the petroleum industry frantically making hay while the sun is still shining. Calgary might not crash at the same time as the rest of the country, but it will crash.
 
2014-01-16 01:22:29 PM  

Rev.K: Shazam999: Well right to the ad hominem attack.  Impressive.

Because you were oh so pleasant to me.

Ugg, and to think, you "oversee financial and budgeting policies for my municipality."  And you're 34.  No wonder the city's finances are in the toilet.


You're proud of your position, and yet the city is actually running of out debt room.  Also projects are routinely over budget.  Are you sure you have a handle on finances?
 
2014-01-16 01:22:32 PM  
There was supposed to be a link to Wall Street Journal in there too but apparently Fark tosses links to WSJ. Let's see if Bloomberg is okay.
 
2014-01-16 01:23:31 PM  

ruta: Rev.K: SovietCanuckistan: The ONE investment refers to a home. A lot of people here have very little savings and they are counting on their home to increase in value without end. The average home in my city costs $527,763 (Dec 2013). People are leveraged to the tits and the only have money to pay the mortgage, not much else.

Calgary's vacancy rate at the moment is less than 1%

Calgary's unemployment is forecast to  decrease over the next few years.

Home values have continued to rise in the wake of the flood.

Home values have not substantially dropped since the crazy price increase of 2006-2007.


Calgary will be the exception to any sort of crash scenario. Growth is still strong and prices have held.

Yikes. 34 years old, huh. And looking after municipal finances. Eep. That's cute that you think Alberta is immune to recession. Tell your elders the above and ask them why they're chuckling and shaking their heads. Jesus, kids these days.

Ahem.

*Cough*

All the activity we're seeing is the petroleum industry frantically making hay while the sun is still shining. Calgary might not crash at the same time as the rest of the country, but it will crash.


Astounding really, and of course a guy like Rev.K will vote Liberal in the next federal election, who will then promptly put in NEP2, and that'll be that for Calgary.
 
2014-01-16 01:27:27 PM  

Rev.K: Flab: So when all of Canada's 34 million people live in Calgary, then what?

I sell my house, make a ton of money and move somewhere else.

Of course, to grow to 34 million might take a few centuries, so perhaps I won't be around anyway.


Canada has 34 million people? Geez, that's almost as many as the real CA.

/ducks flying plates of Poutine
 
2014-01-16 01:43:20 PM  

sn0wblind: montreal is a temporary city for most, generally being because of the lack of work.  most come here to get their education or for temporary work, then leave for greener pastures.  thanks to quebec bureaucrats, companies have to face a lot of red tape and headaches just to do business here; unless the industry is specifically targeted for provincial government incentives.
without jobs, no one wants to buy the plethora of condos popping up everywhere this past year.


But I was told regulation does not hinder business.

/What I love most about Quebec is that despite how badly they want to be French, the French hate them too. They don't even speak real French. Nobody likes them.
 
2014-01-16 01:45:18 PM  
Shazam999:

Astounding really, and of course a guy like Rev.K will vote Liberal in the next federal election, who will then promptly put in NEP2, and that'll be that for Calgary.

Now we disagree. The first NEP didn't trigger the recession, it only exacerbated it. Continuing to scapegoat it and Trudeau for the recession 40 years on is farking tiresome and simple-minded. Lougheed was at least smart and created the Heritage fund to shore Alberta up against future calamities, but now that's been pissed away. By who? Not by the federal Liberals. Alberta ought to have the finest education, healthcare, and innovative research and industry in the world with all that money coursing around, but instead all we have is inflated real estate and petroleum companies biatching and moaning if we dare to skim any off. All the eggs remain in one farking basket. We're the farking Beverly Hillbillies.
 
2014-01-16 01:47:57 PM  

ruta: Yikes. 34 years old, huh. And looking after municipal finances. Eep. That's cute that you think Alberta is immune to recession


Shazam999: You're proud of your position, and yet the city is actually running of out debt room.  Also projects are routinely over budget.  Are you sure you have a handle on finances?



You should go back and look at what I wrote.

I'll be the first to say that of course Calgary is not immune to recession. My outlook may have come across as overly cheery, but I'm not saying that Calgary's economic growth will never stop and it's sunshine all the time.


What I did say is that while a recession could happen, Calgary is well positioned because strong growth continues, which drives demand for housing. Calgary's vacancy rate is exceptionally low, partially due to the June flood, and unemployment in Calgary is forecast to decrease in the coming years.

My point is that the economic indicators aren't consistent with an imminent crash, something that has been predicted since the housing surge in 2007. That isn't to say it can't happen, but indicators are not signalling that it will happen soon.
 
2014-01-16 01:53:20 PM  

ruta: Shazam999:

Astounding really, and of course a guy like Rev.K will vote Liberal in the next federal election, who will then promptly put in NEP2, and that'll be that for Calgary.

Now we disagree. The first NEP didn't trigger the recession, it only exacerbated it. Continuing to scapegoat it and Trudeau for the recession 40 years on is farking tiresome and simple-minded. Lougheed was at least smart and created the Heritage fund to shore Alberta up against future calamities, but now that's been pissed away. By who? Not by the federal Liberals. Alberta ought to have the finest education, healthcare, and innovative research and industry in the world with all that money coursing around, but instead all we have is inflated real estate and petroleum companies biatching and moaning if we dare to skim any off. All the eggs remain in one farking basket. We're the farking Beverly Hillbillies.


THIS.  Goddamit, THIS.
 
2014-01-16 02:06:28 PM  
Shazam999:

Astounding really, and of course a guy like Rev.K will vote Liberal in the next federal election, who will then promptly put in NEP2, and that'll be that for Calgary.

Why does everyone think this?  Everyone assumes to know Trudeau's policies.  You know he supported Canadian pipeline development in the US?   He's the biggest energy sector supporter in Ottawa.
 
2014-01-16 02:08:36 PM  

Rev.K: ruta: Yikes. 34 years old, huh. And looking after municipal finances. Eep. That's cute that you think Alberta is immune to recession

Shazam999: You're proud of your position, and yet the city is actually running of out debt room.  Also projects are routinely over budget.  Are you sure you have a handle on finances?


You should go back and look at what I wrote.


Ok, you said:  "Calgary will be the exception to any sort of crash scenario. "

I'll be the first to say that of course Calgary is not immune to recession.


No, you were the first to say that it was the exception to any sort of crash scenario.

What I did say is that while a recession could happen,

Nope.

That isn't to say it can't happen, but indicators are not signalling that it will happen soon.

And the goalposts are moved!
 
2014-01-16 02:10:22 PM  

LemSkroob: Maybe this will force them to all go back to France? That would be best.


Yeah, about that. France doesn't want them back. They're considered to be colonial peasants who speak a bizarre, bastardized version of French. A lot of their ancestors were basically exiled to the New World for being low-life scum.

/disclaimer: that's what the French think, not what I think. The French Canadian guys I work with are pretty decent guys as long as you don't talk politics.
 
2014-01-16 02:10:56 PM  
 
2014-01-16 02:23:44 PM  
CSB: My mother-in-law has a duplex in NDG that she refuses to sell, no matter how much I try to explain that the Montreal housing market has topped. She doesn't have a lot of other assets, so I don't know what else she expects to retire on (she's welcome to my and Mrs. Fuccon's spare room, but that doesn't strike me as ideal either). She rents out the upstairs, but even the part she lives in is too big for just her and her husband.

I realized I might as well have been talking to myself when she said, "I don't care about your economic models, Mikey, this is my house and I'm not selling!"

/economist
 
2014-01-16 02:24:02 PM  

Rev.K: My point is that the economic indicators aren't consistent with an imminent crash, something that has been predicted since the housing surge in 2007. That isn't to say it can't happen, but indicators are not signalling that it will happen soon.


The person whose job is managing public funds should be the most pessimistic person in the room. You're not there to be the next Warren Buffet.
 
2014-01-16 02:27:01 PM  

TheAlgebraist: However, Canada has a 70% (maybe higher) ownership rate, so there are a lot of people with household incomes below $50,000 trying to buy $300-500 thousand dollar homes.


We've noticed.  Somehow they all end up on Canadian-produced real estate shows that air in the U.S.
 
2014-01-16 02:35:07 PM  

unitednihilists: Mangoose: Is this a Canadian joke?

I think Canada is a joke..


Gotta be
 
2014-01-16 02:35:42 PM  

CygnusDarius: SovietCanuckistan: All of Canada is in for a Real Estate shake up this year.

Prices = crazy high
Rates = crazy low
CDN Savings = nil
CDN Debt = record heights
Employment = shrinking weekly
Diversified = nope
All money into ONE investment = yup
CDN Dollar = sucks ass

Not going to be a crash, but people are going to wake up one day and see their mortgage going up as the value of their home goes down. Gonna be a rough year for Realtors, cannibalism will be rife.

Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.


Always room for more Dude!
 
2014-01-16 02:37:02 PM  

TheAlgebraist: And the goalposts are moved!

 This isn't about moving goal posts.
I admit, my earlier statements were unclear.Let me re-iterate.

Rev.K: My point is that the economic indicators aren't consistent with an imminent crash, something that has been predicted since the housing surge in 2007. That isn't to say it can't happen, but indicators are not signalling that it will happen soon.

 
2014-01-16 02:39:03 PM  

OptionC: CygnusDarius: Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.

The Vancouver housing market in a nutshell

I hope that job pays well.


It has health benefits, but not big on the paycheck side. Considering living, traveling and food expenses, it's... It's how you start.
 
2014-01-16 02:39:13 PM  

ruta: Shazam999:

Astounding really, and of course a guy like Rev.K will vote Liberal in the next federal election, who will then promptly put in NEP2, and that'll be that for Calgary.

Now we disagree. The first NEP didn't trigger the recession, it only exacerbated it. Continuing to scapegoat it and Trudeau for the recession 40 years on is farking tiresome and simple-minded. Lougheed was at least smart and created the Heritage fund to shore Alberta up against future calamities, but now that's been pissed away. By who? Not by the federal Liberals. Alberta ought to have the finest education, healthcare, and innovative research and industry in the world with all that money coursing around, but instead all we have is inflated real estate and petroleum companies biatching and moaning if we dare to skim any off. All the eggs remain in one farking basket. We're the farking Beverly Hillbillies.


Very insightful. I remember hearing about the Heritage Fund for the first time when I was a wee lad.
We have HOW MUCH in the bank?
Now, WE HAVE HOW MUCH IN THE BANK?!?
 
2014-01-16 02:40:46 PM  

ruta: The person whose job is managing public funds should be the most pessimistic person in the room. You're not there to be the next Warren Buffet.


I don't even know what you mean.


I'm not here speaking in any capacity at all for the City. Let's be perfectly clear about that.

I'm saying that current economic indicators do not point to an imminent crash in Calgary's housing market. While other markets in Canada have been hit with recession waves, Calgary has largely been able avoid price shocks.

No one, me included, would ever say that Calgary is "recession proof" if oil went back down to $29 a barrel, you better believe we'd have problems.

In the short term, a housing crash seems unlikely.
 
2014-01-16 02:44:32 PM  

ruta: Now we disagree. The first NEP didn't trigger the recession, it only exacerbated it. Continuing to scapegoat it and Trudeau for the recession 40 years on is farking tiresome and simple-minded. Lougheed was at least smart and created the Heritage fund to shore Alberta up against future calamities, but now that's been pissed away. By who? Not by the federal Liberals. Alberta ought to have the finest education, healthcare, and innovative research and industry in the world with all that money coursing around, but instead all we have is inflated real estate and petroleum companies biatching and moaning if we dare to skim any off. All the eggs remain in one farking basket. We're the farking Beverly Hillbillies.


And by the way, I totally agree with you here.
 
2014-01-16 02:52:15 PM  

Rev.K: ruta: The person whose job is managing public funds should be the most pessimistic person in the room. You're not there to be the next Warren Buffet.

I don't even know what you mean.


I'm not here speaking in any capacity at all for the City. Let's be perfectly clear about that.

I'm saying that current economic indicators do not point to an imminent crash in Calgary's housing market. While other markets in Canada have been hit with recession waves, Calgary has largely been able avoid price shocks.

No one, me included, would ever say that Calgary is "recession proof" if oil went back down to $29 a barrel, you better believe we'd have problems.

In the short term, a housing crash seems unlikely.


Soft landing? I have a few friends with TWO homes here, I really don't wish them financial ruin.
 
2014-01-16 02:59:48 PM  

MikeyFuccon: CSB: My mother-in-law has a duplex in NDG that she refuses to sell, no matter how much I try to explain that the Montreal housing market has topped. She doesn't have a lot of other assets, so I don't know what else she expects to retire on (she's welcome to my and Mrs. Fuccon's spare room, but that doesn't strike me as ideal either). She rents out the upstairs, but even the part she lives in is too big for just her and her husband.

I realized I might as well have been talking to myself when she said, "I don't care about your economic models, Mikey, this is my house and I'm not selling!"

/economist


I live in NDG.  I'm a bit shocked as to how quickly the houses sell in the area - most of which seem to have some sort of foundation issue that requires repair at a considerable expense.  It doesn't seem to stop the buyers though.
 
2014-01-16 03:06:19 PM  

SovietCanuckistan: Soft landing? I have a few friends with TWO homes here, I really don't wish them financial ruin.


One of the biggest things that would set off a housing crash would be if the growth slowed way down, or stopped altogether. That would be devastating.

It hasn't happened.

Through the depths of the US recession and as always tied to the volatile commodity of oil, the city continues to grow, which fuels demand for housing.

Of course no one can predict the future, but I've heard a lot of people waiting for house prices to "crater" and since 2007, they simply haven't. They've fluctuated, but stayed quite stable.
 
2014-01-16 03:13:05 PM  

CygnusDarius: OptionC: CygnusDarius: Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.

The Vancouver housing market in a nutshell

I hope that job pays well.

It has health benefits, but not big on the paycheck side. Considering living, traveling and food expenses, it's... It's how you start.


Good luck with that, Cygnus! :^)
 
2014-01-16 03:13:15 PM  

Earl Green: CSB:

Flew to Montreal a few years back with my son to see a concert and stayed downtown.  Upon noticing the condition of the city, we decided to have a 2 day competition:  Find any public or public works surface (i.e. benches, signs, bridges, etc) with no graffiti on them.  The final score was 0 to 0.

I was hoping for a Euro style trip without travelling so far.  Instead, we went to Detroit en francais.

You're welcome.


I was in Montreal two April's ago. Awesome awesome place. Great Middle Eastern food. And French Canadian faire was excellent as well. The city seemed to humming along quite nicely, businesswise. And the public transit system was incredible.

I want to go back. Maybe next year.
 
2014-01-16 03:20:29 PM  

Stone Meadow: CygnusDarius: OptionC: CygnusDarius: Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.

The Vancouver housing market in a nutshell

I hope that job pays well.

It has health benefits, but not big on the paycheck side. Considering living, traveling and food expenses, it's... It's how you start.

Good luck with that, Cygnus! :^)


Thanks. The interview went well (despite my connection going down a couple of times), but other than that, I'm looking at the the requirements of Canadian Citizenship.
 
2014-01-16 03:33:47 PM  
CygnusDarius:

Thanks. The interview went well (despite my connection going down a couple of times), but other than that, I'm looking at the the requirements of Canadian Citizenship.

The first requirement is X years as a landed immigrant, so you don't need to worry about citizenship for now.  I think after (3 years?  I forget, I got my citizenship in the mid 90s) you just take a multiple choice test, then have to chug 2 litres of maple syrup and stay on a mechanical moose for ninety seconds without puking and you're in.
 
2014-01-16 03:43:36 PM  

TheAlgebraist: CygnusDarius:

Thanks. The interview went well (despite my connection going down a couple of times), but other than that, I'm looking at the the requirements of Canadian Citizenship.

The first requirement is X years as a landed immigrant, so you don't need to worry about citizenship for now.  I think after (3 years?  I forget, I got my citizenship in the mid 90s) you just take a multiple choice test, then have to chug 2 litres of maple syrup and stay on a mechanical moose for ninety seconds without puking and you're in.


That last part is a real biatch.
 
2014-01-16 03:48:03 PM  

SovietCanuckistan: TheAlgebraist: CygnusDarius:

Thanks. The interview went well (despite my connection going down a couple of times), but other than that, I'm looking at the the requirements of Canadian Citizenship.

The first requirement is X years as a landed immigrant, so you don't need to worry about citizenship for now.  I think after (3 years?  I forget, I got my citizenship in the mid 90s) you just take a multiple choice test, then have to chug 2 litres of maple syrup and stay on a mechanical moose for ninety seconds without puking and you're in.

That last part is a real biatch.


Gonna have to start watching Super-Troopers again.
 
2014-01-16 03:50:12 PM  

CygnusDarius: Stone Meadow: Good luck with that, Cygnus! :^)

Thanks. The interview went well (despite my connection going down a couple of times), but other than that, I'm looking at the the requirements of Canadian Citizenship.


Seriously...good luck with that. Get out of Mexico and get Canadian citizenship and the world is pretty much your oyster.

Everybody loves Canadians... :^)
 
2014-01-16 05:14:48 PM  

TheAlgebraist: chug 2 litres of maple syrup and stay on a mechanical moose for ninety seconds without puking and you're in.


With that my diabetes will farking kill me.  But the healthcare may save me.  Hmmmm.
 
2014-01-16 05:32:38 PM  

OptionC: CygnusDarius: Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.

The Vancouver housing market in a nutshell

I hope that job pays well.


That is just absurd.  That site makes it look like Vancouver real estate has become totally detached from reality.

I mean, in London or NYC you'll see that happen, because demand is steady and there's always at least some foreign money being parked/tax-sheltered/laundered through the real-estate market as a result.  Is that sort of thing happening there?
 
2014-01-16 05:50:51 PM  
So riddle me this:

Why is it a bad thing when housing prices go down?

I mean, SF's well into Mansion or Crack Shack territory and a little bit of overbuilding (and extra transit infrastructure (And a couple of judiciously selected extra lanes and/or rebuilt exits with higher capacity and less shiatty merging)) is EXACTLY what the doctor ordered.

Doesn't that mean that you can avoid the "My entire life savings are in my home" problems that have been plaguing the first world for the last few decades?  And wouldn't it just be awesome if we could go back to a semi-American dream by NOT requiring people making $200K/year to have roommates in 1BR apartments?

Isn't encouraging a mild housing oversupply a good thing?
 
2014-01-16 06:01:37 PM  

Robo Beat: OptionC: CygnusDarius: Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.

The Vancouver housing market in a nutshell

I hope that job pays well.

That is just absurd.  That site makes it look like Vancouver real estate has become totally detached from reality.

I mean, in London or NYC you'll see that happen, because demand is steady and there's always at least some foreign money being parked/tax-sheltered/laundered through the real-estate market as a result.  Is that sort of thing happening there?


Hong Kong Exodus

"Middle-class" Asians used to paying way too damn much money for tiny apartments come over to the West Coast and bid up all the housing because of course a small house costs more than your total life's income.

This couples with the major issue that mass transit is slow(er than driving) and serves a small area (because you have to walk on at least one end), so the potential square footage to put housing on goes WAY down, which bids demand for that small area way up (Think about it this way.  Start in downtown Cleveland and go as far as you can in an hour during rush hour.  Now start in Battery Park and do the same thing.  In Cleveland, you're practically in the next state, while in NYC, you can't even get to the other end of Manhattan.  And since there's WAY more area for housing, there's way lower housing prices).

I'm also guessing that Vancouver has all the same damn NIMBY issues that all the really expensive US cities have, so they can't really increase supply because everyone biatches.

/Sure, we can talk about walkable neighborhoods, but the people supporting them need to be honest about the fact that actual houses and walkable neighborhoods don't really go together, because you can't have big yards and sufficient density within walking distance to support all the businesses (or sufficient housing to stick all the people in).
 
2014-01-16 06:02:22 PM  

Rev.K: SovietCanuckistan: Soft landing? I have a few friends with TWO homes here, I really don't wish them financial ruin.

One of the biggest things that would set off a housing crash would be if the growth slowed way down, or stopped altogether. That would be devastating.

It hasn't happened.

Through the depths of the US recession and as always tied to the volatile commodity of oil, the city continues to grow, which fuels demand for housing.

Of course no one can predict the future, but I've heard a lot of people waiting for house prices to "crater" and since 2007, they simply haven't. They've fluctuated, but stayed quite stable.


Depends on where you live.
eyeonhousing.files.wordpress.com
 
PJ-
2014-01-16 06:27:40 PM  
Why can't french people count to ten?

Dere is a tree in da way.
 
2014-01-16 07:44:18 PM  

basicstock: MikeyFuccon: CSB: My mother-in-law has a duplex in NDG that she refuses to sell, no matter how much I try to explain that the Montreal housing market has topped. She doesn't have a lot of other assets, so I don't know what else she expects to retire on (she's welcome to my and Mrs. Fuccon's spare room, but that doesn't strike me as ideal either). She rents out the upstairs, but even the part she lives in is too big for just her and her husband.

I realized I might as well have been talking to myself when she said, "I don't care about your economic models, Mikey, this is my house and I'm not selling!"

/economist

I live in NDG.  I'm a bit shocked as to how quickly the houses sell in the area - most of which seem to have some sort of foundation issue that requires repair at a considerable expense.  It doesn't seem to stop the buyers though.


Unless your foundation is on solid bedrock, I'd be very worried.

There are parts of NDG that are just a bulldozer mishap from sliding right down to Verdun. That whole cliff-face between the 720 and Sherbrooke st. Is all loose clay.

They apparently had a few very close calls with the new hospital, and it's part of the reason why the 720 East between Decarie and Guy was down to two lanes for most of last year, they were afraid a landslide would wipe it away.
 
2014-01-16 08:57:19 PM  
This reminds me of the time I went to London and all the buildings were advertising their "Flat Toilets".
 
2014-01-16 10:24:23 PM  
I'm under the impression that Quebec's entire economy is based on sales of the Assassin's Creed franchise.
 
2014-01-17 12:27:51 AM  

MrEricSir: I'm under the impression that Quebec's entire economy is based on sales of the Assassin's Creed franchise.


now that Bombardier has delayed the C series again and SNC-Lavelin has lowered the bribe budget all that leaves is AC and prostitution
 
2014-01-17 01:31:05 AM  

MrEricSir: I'm under the impression that Quebec's entire economy is based on sales of the Assassin's Creed franchise.


And on selling Hydropower to power the PC, PS3 and Xbox running AC.
 
2014-01-17 03:54:50 AM  

Shazam999: This did happen in the 80s. Housing prices crashed, interest rates were through the roof, and people just walked away from their homes.


Are Canadian home lones 'Nonrecourse' types?  I mean, short of deliberate sabotage you can turn the keys over to the bank and the bank can't come after you for any excess debt on the loan not covered by the sale of the house?  The states are a mixed bag for this.

I like the idea; it forces the banks to pay attention when they give a loan, and really, people only walk away from their house if there's a serious reason.  Quicker than the formality of bankruptcy.
 
2014-01-17 05:01:03 AM  

Firethorn: Are Canadian home lones 'Nonrecourse' types?


*Sigh*  loans.  Home Loans.
 
2014-01-17 09:22:14 AM  

Firethorn: Are Canadian home lones 'Nonrecourse' types? I mean, short of deliberate sabotage you can turn the keys over to the bank and the bank can't come after you for any excess debt on the loan not covered by the sale of the house?


Underwater mortgages rarely occur in Canada, since you have to have at least 25% down when you buy the house (you can get a mortgage for up to 90% of the proerty value, but that mortgage is insured by the CHMA (Canadian housing and Mortgage Association), so your porperty value would have to go down by more than 25% before that mortgage was underwater, so in the event that the bank has to repossess the house, it will come out on top (note: if they sell the house for more than the value of the mortgage, they have to give the remainder to you!)

According to the info I found ( link ) the loaner or the loan insurer, if you had mortgage insurance, can go after your other assets if the sale of the house doesn't cover their costs, so simply walking away from your home and handing the keys back to the bank doesn't let you off the hook.
 
2014-01-17 10:18:24 AM  

Flab: Underwater mortgages rarely occur in Canada, since you have to have at least 25% down when you buy the house (you can get a mortgage for up to 90% of the proerty value, but that mortgage is insured by the CHMA (Canadian housing and Mortgage Association), so your porperty value would have to go down by more than 25% before that mortgage was underwater, so in the event that the bank has to repossess the house, it will come out on top (note: if they sell the house for more than the value of the mortgage, they have to give the remainder to you!)


Why are you surprised about the repossession thing?  That's the case in the states as well.  It's just that if they're selling it they often don't bother to sell much past what's owed to them, selling at auction or some such where speed is emphasized over maximum price.

As for your info - that means that home loans in Canada are 'recourse' loans.  Kind of sucks if you get into a bad situation, such as losing your job in the middle of a housing crash.
 
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