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(Some Guy)   Montreal real estate market collapsing so quickly that this 'Al Louer' guy seems to own most of the Montreal buildings these days. His signs are just everywhere   (marketwired.com) divider line 130
    More: Interesting, Montreal real estate market, Montreal, GMREB Board of Directors, North Shore  
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8783 clicks; posted to Main » on 16 Jan 2014 at 10:30 AM (30 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-01-16 02:37:02 PM

TheAlgebraist: And the goalposts are moved!

 This isn't about moving goal posts.
I admit, my earlier statements were unclear.Let me re-iterate.

Rev.K: My point is that the economic indicators aren't consistent with an imminent crash, something that has been predicted since the housing surge in 2007. That isn't to say it can't happen, but indicators are not signalling that it will happen soon.

 
2014-01-16 02:39:03 PM

OptionC: CygnusDarius: Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.

The Vancouver housing market in a nutshell

I hope that job pays well.


It has health benefits, but not big on the paycheck side. Considering living, traveling and food expenses, it's... It's how you start.
 
2014-01-16 02:39:13 PM

ruta: Shazam999:

Astounding really, and of course a guy like Rev.K will vote Liberal in the next federal election, who will then promptly put in NEP2, and that'll be that for Calgary.

Now we disagree. The first NEP didn't trigger the recession, it only exacerbated it. Continuing to scapegoat it and Trudeau for the recession 40 years on is farking tiresome and simple-minded. Lougheed was at least smart and created the Heritage fund to shore Alberta up against future calamities, but now that's been pissed away. By who? Not by the federal Liberals. Alberta ought to have the finest education, healthcare, and innovative research and industry in the world with all that money coursing around, but instead all we have is inflated real estate and petroleum companies biatching and moaning if we dare to skim any off. All the eggs remain in one farking basket. We're the farking Beverly Hillbillies.


Very insightful. I remember hearing about the Heritage Fund for the first time when I was a wee lad.
We have HOW MUCH in the bank?
Now, WE HAVE HOW MUCH IN THE BANK?!?
 
2014-01-16 02:40:46 PM

ruta: The person whose job is managing public funds should be the most pessimistic person in the room. You're not there to be the next Warren Buffet.


I don't even know what you mean.


I'm not here speaking in any capacity at all for the City. Let's be perfectly clear about that.

I'm saying that current economic indicators do not point to an imminent crash in Calgary's housing market. While other markets in Canada have been hit with recession waves, Calgary has largely been able avoid price shocks.

No one, me included, would ever say that Calgary is "recession proof" if oil went back down to $29 a barrel, you better believe we'd have problems.

In the short term, a housing crash seems unlikely.
 
2014-01-16 02:44:32 PM

ruta: Now we disagree. The first NEP didn't trigger the recession, it only exacerbated it. Continuing to scapegoat it and Trudeau for the recession 40 years on is farking tiresome and simple-minded. Lougheed was at least smart and created the Heritage fund to shore Alberta up against future calamities, but now that's been pissed away. By who? Not by the federal Liberals. Alberta ought to have the finest education, healthcare, and innovative research and industry in the world with all that money coursing around, but instead all we have is inflated real estate and petroleum companies biatching and moaning if we dare to skim any off. All the eggs remain in one farking basket. We're the farking Beverly Hillbillies.


And by the way, I totally agree with you here.
 
2014-01-16 02:52:15 PM

Rev.K: ruta: The person whose job is managing public funds should be the most pessimistic person in the room. You're not there to be the next Warren Buffet.

I don't even know what you mean.


I'm not here speaking in any capacity at all for the City. Let's be perfectly clear about that.

I'm saying that current economic indicators do not point to an imminent crash in Calgary's housing market. While other markets in Canada have been hit with recession waves, Calgary has largely been able avoid price shocks.

No one, me included, would ever say that Calgary is "recession proof" if oil went back down to $29 a barrel, you better believe we'd have problems.

In the short term, a housing crash seems unlikely.


Soft landing? I have a few friends with TWO homes here, I really don't wish them financial ruin.
 
2014-01-16 02:59:48 PM

MikeyFuccon: CSB: My mother-in-law has a duplex in NDG that she refuses to sell, no matter how much I try to explain that the Montreal housing market has topped. She doesn't have a lot of other assets, so I don't know what else she expects to retire on (she's welcome to my and Mrs. Fuccon's spare room, but that doesn't strike me as ideal either). She rents out the upstairs, but even the part she lives in is too big for just her and her husband.

I realized I might as well have been talking to myself when she said, "I don't care about your economic models, Mikey, this is my house and I'm not selling!"

/economist


I live in NDG.  I'm a bit shocked as to how quickly the houses sell in the area - most of which seem to have some sort of foundation issue that requires repair at a considerable expense.  It doesn't seem to stop the buyers though.
 
2014-01-16 03:06:19 PM

SovietCanuckistan: Soft landing? I have a few friends with TWO homes here, I really don't wish them financial ruin.


One of the biggest things that would set off a housing crash would be if the growth slowed way down, or stopped altogether. That would be devastating.

It hasn't happened.

Through the depths of the US recession and as always tied to the volatile commodity of oil, the city continues to grow, which fuels demand for housing.

Of course no one can predict the future, but I've heard a lot of people waiting for house prices to "crater" and since 2007, they simply haven't. They've fluctuated, but stayed quite stable.
 
2014-01-16 03:13:05 PM

CygnusDarius: OptionC: CygnusDarius: Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.

The Vancouver housing market in a nutshell

I hope that job pays well.

It has health benefits, but not big on the paycheck side. Considering living, traveling and food expenses, it's... It's how you start.


Good luck with that, Cygnus! :^)
 
2014-01-16 03:13:15 PM

Earl Green: CSB:

Flew to Montreal a few years back with my son to see a concert and stayed downtown.  Upon noticing the condition of the city, we decided to have a 2 day competition:  Find any public or public works surface (i.e. benches, signs, bridges, etc) with no graffiti on them.  The final score was 0 to 0.

I was hoping for a Euro style trip without travelling so far.  Instead, we went to Detroit en francais.

You're welcome.


I was in Montreal two April's ago. Awesome awesome place. Great Middle Eastern food. And French Canadian faire was excellent as well. The city seemed to humming along quite nicely, businesswise. And the public transit system was incredible.

I want to go back. Maybe next year.
 
2014-01-16 03:20:29 PM

Stone Meadow: CygnusDarius: OptionC: CygnusDarius: Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.

The Vancouver housing market in a nutshell

I hope that job pays well.

It has health benefits, but not big on the paycheck side. Considering living, traveling and food expenses, it's... It's how you start.

Good luck with that, Cygnus! :^)


Thanks. The interview went well (despite my connection going down a couple of times), but other than that, I'm looking at the the requirements of Canadian Citizenship.
 
2014-01-16 03:33:47 PM
CygnusDarius:

Thanks. The interview went well (despite my connection going down a couple of times), but other than that, I'm looking at the the requirements of Canadian Citizenship.

The first requirement is X years as a landed immigrant, so you don't need to worry about citizenship for now.  I think after (3 years?  I forget, I got my citizenship in the mid 90s) you just take a multiple choice test, then have to chug 2 litres of maple syrup and stay on a mechanical moose for ninety seconds without puking and you're in.
 
2014-01-16 03:43:36 PM

TheAlgebraist: CygnusDarius:

Thanks. The interview went well (despite my connection going down a couple of times), but other than that, I'm looking at the the requirements of Canadian Citizenship.

The first requirement is X years as a landed immigrant, so you don't need to worry about citizenship for now.  I think after (3 years?  I forget, I got my citizenship in the mid 90s) you just take a multiple choice test, then have to chug 2 litres of maple syrup and stay on a mechanical moose for ninety seconds without puking and you're in.


That last part is a real biatch.
 
2014-01-16 03:48:03 PM

SovietCanuckistan: TheAlgebraist: CygnusDarius:

Thanks. The interview went well (despite my connection going down a couple of times), but other than that, I'm looking at the the requirements of Canadian Citizenship.

The first requirement is X years as a landed immigrant, so you don't need to worry about citizenship for now.  I think after (3 years?  I forget, I got my citizenship in the mid 90s) you just take a multiple choice test, then have to chug 2 litres of maple syrup and stay on a mechanical moose for ninety seconds without puking and you're in.

That last part is a real biatch.


Gonna have to start watching Super-Troopers again.
 
2014-01-16 03:50:12 PM

CygnusDarius: Stone Meadow: Good luck with that, Cygnus! :^)

Thanks. The interview went well (despite my connection going down a couple of times), but other than that, I'm looking at the the requirements of Canadian Citizenship.


Seriously...good luck with that. Get out of Mexico and get Canadian citizenship and the world is pretty much your oyster.

Everybody loves Canadians... :^)
 
2014-01-16 05:14:48 PM

TheAlgebraist: chug 2 litres of maple syrup and stay on a mechanical moose for ninety seconds without puking and you're in.


With that my diabetes will farking kill me.  But the healthcare may save me.  Hmmmm.
 
2014-01-16 05:32:38 PM

OptionC: CygnusDarius: Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.

The Vancouver housing market in a nutshell

I hope that job pays well.


That is just absurd.  That site makes it look like Vancouver real estate has become totally detached from reality.

I mean, in London or NYC you'll see that happen, because demand is steady and there's always at least some foreign money being parked/tax-sheltered/laundered through the real-estate market as a result.  Is that sort of thing happening there?
 
2014-01-16 05:50:51 PM
So riddle me this:

Why is it a bad thing when housing prices go down?

I mean, SF's well into Mansion or Crack Shack territory and a little bit of overbuilding (and extra transit infrastructure (And a couple of judiciously selected extra lanes and/or rebuilt exits with higher capacity and less shiatty merging)) is EXACTLY what the doctor ordered.

Doesn't that mean that you can avoid the "My entire life savings are in my home" problems that have been plaguing the first world for the last few decades?  And wouldn't it just be awesome if we could go back to a semi-American dream by NOT requiring people making $200K/year to have roommates in 1BR apartments?

Isn't encouraging a mild housing oversupply a good thing?
 
2014-01-16 06:01:37 PM

Robo Beat: OptionC: CygnusDarius: Sooo... Bad time to apply for Cadian... Err, I mean Canadian Citizenship? I just sent my resume to a company on Vancouver.

The Vancouver housing market in a nutshell

I hope that job pays well.

That is just absurd.  That site makes it look like Vancouver real estate has become totally detached from reality.

I mean, in London or NYC you'll see that happen, because demand is steady and there's always at least some foreign money being parked/tax-sheltered/laundered through the real-estate market as a result.  Is that sort of thing happening there?


Hong Kong Exodus

"Middle-class" Asians used to paying way too damn much money for tiny apartments come over to the West Coast and bid up all the housing because of course a small house costs more than your total life's income.

This couples with the major issue that mass transit is slow(er than driving) and serves a small area (because you have to walk on at least one end), so the potential square footage to put housing on goes WAY down, which bids demand for that small area way up (Think about it this way.  Start in downtown Cleveland and go as far as you can in an hour during rush hour.  Now start in Battery Park and do the same thing.  In Cleveland, you're practically in the next state, while in NYC, you can't even get to the other end of Manhattan.  And since there's WAY more area for housing, there's way lower housing prices).

I'm also guessing that Vancouver has all the same damn NIMBY issues that all the really expensive US cities have, so they can't really increase supply because everyone biatches.

/Sure, we can talk about walkable neighborhoods, but the people supporting them need to be honest about the fact that actual houses and walkable neighborhoods don't really go together, because you can't have big yards and sufficient density within walking distance to support all the businesses (or sufficient housing to stick all the people in).
 
2014-01-16 06:02:22 PM

Rev.K: SovietCanuckistan: Soft landing? I have a few friends with TWO homes here, I really don't wish them financial ruin.

One of the biggest things that would set off a housing crash would be if the growth slowed way down, or stopped altogether. That would be devastating.

It hasn't happened.

Through the depths of the US recession and as always tied to the volatile commodity of oil, the city continues to grow, which fuels demand for housing.

Of course no one can predict the future, but I've heard a lot of people waiting for house prices to "crater" and since 2007, they simply haven't. They've fluctuated, but stayed quite stable.


Depends on where you live.
eyeonhousing.files.wordpress.com
 
PJ-
2014-01-16 06:27:40 PM
Why can't french people count to ten?

Dere is a tree in da way.
 
2014-01-16 07:44:18 PM

basicstock: MikeyFuccon: CSB: My mother-in-law has a duplex in NDG that she refuses to sell, no matter how much I try to explain that the Montreal housing market has topped. She doesn't have a lot of other assets, so I don't know what else she expects to retire on (she's welcome to my and Mrs. Fuccon's spare room, but that doesn't strike me as ideal either). She rents out the upstairs, but even the part she lives in is too big for just her and her husband.

I realized I might as well have been talking to myself when she said, "I don't care about your economic models, Mikey, this is my house and I'm not selling!"

/economist

I live in NDG.  I'm a bit shocked as to how quickly the houses sell in the area - most of which seem to have some sort of foundation issue that requires repair at a considerable expense.  It doesn't seem to stop the buyers though.


Unless your foundation is on solid bedrock, I'd be very worried.

There are parts of NDG that are just a bulldozer mishap from sliding right down to Verdun. That whole cliff-face between the 720 and Sherbrooke st. Is all loose clay.

They apparently had a few very close calls with the new hospital, and it's part of the reason why the 720 East between Decarie and Guy was down to two lanes for most of last year, they were afraid a landslide would wipe it away.
 
2014-01-16 08:57:19 PM
This reminds me of the time I went to London and all the buildings were advertising their "Flat Toilets".
 
2014-01-16 10:24:23 PM
I'm under the impression that Quebec's entire economy is based on sales of the Assassin's Creed franchise.
 
2014-01-17 12:27:51 AM

MrEricSir: I'm under the impression that Quebec's entire economy is based on sales of the Assassin's Creed franchise.


now that Bombardier has delayed the C series again and SNC-Lavelin has lowered the bribe budget all that leaves is AC and prostitution
 
2014-01-17 01:31:05 AM

MrEricSir: I'm under the impression that Quebec's entire economy is based on sales of the Assassin's Creed franchise.


And on selling Hydropower to power the PC, PS3 and Xbox running AC.
 
2014-01-17 03:54:50 AM

Shazam999: This did happen in the 80s. Housing prices crashed, interest rates were through the roof, and people just walked away from their homes.


Are Canadian home lones 'Nonrecourse' types?  I mean, short of deliberate sabotage you can turn the keys over to the bank and the bank can't come after you for any excess debt on the loan not covered by the sale of the house?  The states are a mixed bag for this.

I like the idea; it forces the banks to pay attention when they give a loan, and really, people only walk away from their house if there's a serious reason.  Quicker than the formality of bankruptcy.
 
2014-01-17 05:01:03 AM

Firethorn: Are Canadian home lones 'Nonrecourse' types?


*Sigh*  loans.  Home Loans.
 
2014-01-17 09:22:14 AM

Firethorn: Are Canadian home lones 'Nonrecourse' types? I mean, short of deliberate sabotage you can turn the keys over to the bank and the bank can't come after you for any excess debt on the loan not covered by the sale of the house?


Underwater mortgages rarely occur in Canada, since you have to have at least 25% down when you buy the house (you can get a mortgage for up to 90% of the proerty value, but that mortgage is insured by the CHMA (Canadian housing and Mortgage Association), so your porperty value would have to go down by more than 25% before that mortgage was underwater, so in the event that the bank has to repossess the house, it will come out on top (note: if they sell the house for more than the value of the mortgage, they have to give the remainder to you!)

According to the info I found ( link ) the loaner or the loan insurer, if you had mortgage insurance, can go after your other assets if the sale of the house doesn't cover their costs, so simply walking away from your home and handing the keys back to the bank doesn't let you off the hook.
 
2014-01-17 10:18:24 AM

Flab: Underwater mortgages rarely occur in Canada, since you have to have at least 25% down when you buy the house (you can get a mortgage for up to 90% of the proerty value, but that mortgage is insured by the CHMA (Canadian housing and Mortgage Association), so your porperty value would have to go down by more than 25% before that mortgage was underwater, so in the event that the bank has to repossess the house, it will come out on top (note: if they sell the house for more than the value of the mortgage, they have to give the remainder to you!)


Why are you surprised about the repossession thing?  That's the case in the states as well.  It's just that if they're selling it they often don't bother to sell much past what's owed to them, selling at auction or some such where speed is emphasized over maximum price.

As for your info - that means that home loans in Canada are 'recourse' loans.  Kind of sucks if you get into a bad situation, such as losing your job in the middle of a housing crash.
 
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