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(Christian Science Monitor)   Jobless recovery remains mystery to people writing about economics on their made-in-Asia computers   (csmonitor.com) divider line 93
    More: Obvious, jobless recovery, National Association of Manufacturers, computers, discouraged worker, Great Recession, interest rates, IHS Global Insight  
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927 clicks; posted to Business » on 13 Jan 2014 at 12:18 PM (36 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



93 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2014-01-13 10:51:28 AM
Listening to teatards, they simultaneously tell people that McDonalds is hiring and decrying fast food workers who want a living wage.

Seriously what planet are these people on?
 
2014-01-13 11:18:28 AM
And who or what says we are in a recovery? Yes the unemployment is down. But we have known for some time that this was due to people giving up and not looking for work. And don't tell me we are in a recovery because the stock market is up (to quote Goldman Sachs Elevator ) "33% of DJIA is 5 stocks. Gauging the economy on that is like putting the back of your hand on your forehead for a health exam."
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2014-01-13 11:28:07 AM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: And who or what says we are in a recovery? Yes the unemployment is down. But we have known for some time that this was due to people giving up and not looking for work. And don't tell me we are in a recovery because the stock market is up (to quote Goldman Sachs Elevator ) "33% of DJIA is 5 stocks. Gauging the economy on that is like putting the back of your hand on your forehead for a health exam."


Economists.   People who know that a recovery is when you have positive GDP growth.

Pretty much anyone who isn't out to spin the issue for political reasons.
 
2014-01-13 11:39:41 AM
+1
 
2014-01-13 11:42:11 AM
Given the amount of offshore manufacturing American companies do, maybe we should include employment numbers from all of SouthEast Asia in calculating employment rates for the US.
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2014-01-13 11:51:25 AM

MrBallou: Given the amount of offshore manufacturing American companies do, maybe we should include employment numbers from all of SouthEast Asia in calculating employment rates for the US.


Or maybe we should charge them for the privilege of selling their wares in our consumer market.
 
2014-01-13 12:18:10 PM
Something tells me that there are a number of variables being overlooked in this article.
 
2014-01-13 12:22:07 PM
Since in the last recession companies have figured out they can make just as much profit with fewer employees, why would they start hiring again?
 
2014-01-13 12:25:51 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: And who or what says we are in a recovery? Yes the unemployment is down. But we have known for some time that this was due to people giving up and not looking for work. And don't tell me we are in a recovery because the stock market is up (to quote Goldman Sachs Elevator ) "33% of DJIA is 5 stocks. Gauging the economy on that is like putting the back of your hand on your forehead for a health exam."



I think we can judge it based on how the top 5% are doing. Maybe 10%, to be more democratic. And by all reports, the top 10% are doing fine.
If we tell them, look, take what you want, don't worry about sharing, and then we notice they aren't sharing, that the bottom 80% are getting squeezed, we can't conclude that the economy isn't functioning. The top 10% is doing fine, slurping up GDP growth right from the trough. What we can conclude is that the rich have a greater influence on wealth distribution than maybe we want.
 
2014-01-13 12:26:43 PM
i.imgur.com
 
2014-01-13 12:29:36 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: And who or what says we are in a recovery? Yes the unemployment is down. But we have known for some time that this was due to people giving up and not looking for work. And don't tell me we are in a recovery because the stock market is up (to quote Goldman Sachs Elevator ) "33% of DJIA is 5 stocks. Gauging the economy on that is like putting the back of your hand on your forehead for a health exam."


I wouldnt listen to anyone that claims that 1/3rd of tthe DJIA is 5 stocks.
 
2014-01-13 12:32:16 PM
Don't expect things to get better soon. Net investment is in its worst slump since the 1930s. It makes total sense from a business perspective. Demand is still weak because unemployment is still too high, wages are flat, and real net incomes are falling. The economy has reset at a lower level of activity. Cuts to public spending are only going to further dampen economic activity, perpetuating the low-growth, weak demand cycle. There really is no way out of this without a dramatic reversal in government fiscal policy.
 
2014-01-13 12:32:37 PM

vpb: Economists. People who know that a recovery is when you have positive GDP growth.

Pretty much anyone who isn't out to spin the issue for political reasons.



Definition of 'Economic Recovery'

A period of increasing business activity signaling the end of a recession. Much like a recession, an economic recovery is not always easy to recognize until at least several months after it has begun. Economists use a variety of indicators, including GDP, inflation, financial markets and unemployment to analyze the state of the economy and determine whether a recovery is in progress.

Yeah but you're right I'm sure the boys and girls over at Economist.com are nothing but political hacks.
 
2014-01-13 12:33:37 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: But we have known for some time that this was due to people giving up and not looking for work


A chunk of that is called "Baby Boomers getting old"
 
2014-01-13 12:35:17 PM

Sybarite: Don't expect things to get better soon. Net investment is in its worst slump since the 1930s. It makes total sense from a business perspective. Demand is still weak because unemployment is still too high, wages are flat, and real net incomes are falling. The economy has reset at a lower level of activity. Cuts to public spending are only going to further dampen economic activity, perpetuating the low-growth, weak demand cycle. There really is no way out of this without a dramatic reversal in government fiscal policy.


And the last time anyone tried to reverse government fiscal policy, the opponents shut down the government.
 
2014-01-13 12:37:32 PM
Stop discriminating against potential hires that are currently unemployed and/or have bad credit.
 
2014-01-13 12:39:59 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: vpb: Economists. People who know that a recovery is when you have positive GDP growth.

Pretty much anyone who isn't out to spin the issue for political reasons.


Definition of 'Economic Recovery'

A period of increasing business activity signaling the end of a recession. Much like a recession, an economic recovery is not always easy to recognize until at least several months after it has begun. Economists use a variety of indicators, including GDP, inflation, financial markets and unemployment to analyze the state of the economy and determine whether a recovery is in progress.

Yeah but you're right I'm sure the boys and girls over at Economist.com are nothing but political hacks.


Are you claiming that our economy is not in recovery? If you are please state why. Be specific.
 
2014-01-13 12:45:16 PM

12349876: A chunk of that is called "Baby Boomers getting old"


granted.

But no where near all. With a record 92 million people out of work. Ruffly 10,000 baby boomer turn 65 each day. So even if we believe that every single one of them retires on that day that's only 30k a month.

"The worst news comes in the workforce numbers. Those not in the workforce increased by 525,000 in December (91.808 million), after a one-time drop in the figure for November (91.283M from 91.756M in October). That's a big exodus of people from the workforce, dwarfing the meager number of jobs added in the economy. Part-time work remained essentially constant at 7.8 million, so the exodus points to an ugly, ugly trend."
 
2014-01-13 12:50:02 PM

12349876: The Stealth Hippopotamus: But we have known for some time that this was due to people giving up and not looking for work

A chunk of that is called "Baby Boomers getting old"


Perhaps, but if you are between 60-65 and still want to work, you chances are pretty slim (discounting the thriving Walmart greeter job market). These are the people who are dropping out of the workforce and taking early retirement because they can't find jobs.

It would be great if 347k people per month were hitting retirement age with enough put away to actually retire and saying, "Oh well, I tried to find a job, but I've got SS and my 401k, so screw it, I'm off to play bingo for the rest of my life." I just don't think that's the case, based on everything I've read about how little Americans save for retirement and how the financial catastrophe wiped out a lot of savings for people who did.

What I'd like to know (and don't even know where to begin looking to find out) is how many of the 347k people fit that description vs. people who just don't count toward the employment figures anymore for other reasons.
 
2014-01-13 12:51:09 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: "33% of DJIA is 5 stocks. Gauging the economy on that is like putting the back of your hand on your forehead for a health exam."


You sure did beat the hell out of the argument that someone totally made that the DJIA is the sole indicator that we are in a recovery.
 
2014-01-13 12:51:19 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: people giving up and not looking for work. And don't tell me we are in a recovery because the stock market is up



Welcome to the future.

Each business owner has all the incentives in the world to replace labor with automation and VIs, allowing them to reduce costs while maintaining productivity.

It's the  "Prisoner's Dilemna" on a global scale, and the inevitable outcome is massive production potential, but no one can get a job to earn income to buy anything.
 
2014-01-13 12:57:20 PM

jst3p: Are you claiming that our economy is not in recovery? If you are please state why. Be specific.


You want me to prove something doesn't exist?

Mitch Taylor's Bro: (discounting the thriving Walmart greeter job market)


They discontinued that position
Link
 
2014-01-13 12:58:26 PM

Saiga410: The Stealth Hippopotamus: And who or what says we are in a recovery? Yes the unemployment is down. But we have known for some time that this was due to people giving up and not looking for work. And don't tell me we are in a recovery because the stock market is up (to quote Goldman Sachs Elevator ) "33% of DJIA is 5 stocks. Gauging the economy on that is like putting the back of your hand on your forehead for a health exam."

I wouldnt listen to anyone that claims that 1/3rd of tthe DJIA is 5 stocks.


I don't think that's what he ment.
 
2014-01-13 12:59:56 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: vpb: Economists. People who know that a recovery is when you have positive GDP growth.

Pretty much anyone who isn't out to spin the issue for political reasons.


Definition of 'Economic Recovery'

A period of increasing business activity signaling the end of a recession. Much like a recession, an economic recovery is not always easy to recognize until at least several months after it has begun. Economists use a variety of indicators, including GDP, inflation, financial markets and unemployment to analyze the state of the economy and determine whether a recovery is in progress.

Yeah but you're right I'm sure the boys and girls over at Economist.com are nothing but political hacks.


That definition is from investopedia.com, not economist.com. It is available here if you'd like the check on that. Perhaps you chose to mislead us about the source of your definition because the site goes on to say "Unemployment often remains high even as the economy begins to recover". Which would indicate that high unemployment on its own is not sufficient evidence to make the claim that we are not in recovery.
 
2014-01-13 01:00:41 PM

Because People in power are Stupid: Listening to teatards, they simultaneously tell people that McDonalds is hiring and decrying fast food workers who want a living wage.

Seriously what planet are these people on?


Planetary exploration is hippie egghead socialist nonsense. Now if you will excuse them, they need to hop on the Hoveround and schlep on down to the Social Security office.

/Also, Fartbongo.
 
2014-01-13 01:00:59 PM

Mitch Taylor's Bro: 12349876: The Stealth Hippopotamus: But we have known for some time that this was due to people giving up and not looking for work

A chunk of that is called "Baby Boomers getting old"

Perhaps, but if you are between 60-65 and still want to work, you chances are pretty slim (discounting the thriving Walmart greeter job market). These are the people who are dropping out of the workforce and taking early retirement because they can't find jobs.

It would be great if 347k people per month were hitting retirement age with enough put away to actually retire and saying, "Oh well, I tried to find a job, but I've got SS and my 401k, so screw it, I'm off to play bingo for the rest of my life." I just don't think that's the case, based on everything I've read about how little Americans save for retirement and how the financial catastrophe wiped out a lot of savings for people who did.

What I'd like to know (and don't even know where to begin looking to find out) is how many of the 347k people fit that description vs. people who just don't count toward the employment figures anymore for other reasons.


And how many of those who DO want to work are taking jobs commensurate with their age and experience...as opposed to that Wal-mart greeter job, that the perky 20 year old also wants, but she can't get because some old geezer took it instead?
 
2014-01-13 01:02:18 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: But no where near all. With a record 92 million people out of work. Ruffly 10,000 baby boomer turn 65 each day. So even if we believe that every single one of them retires on that day that's only 30k a month.


1.  Why would they all need to retire on their birthday for the number to hold - say some retire early and some retire late, the 10k number retiring would hold fairly constant, dipped only by those who die before retiring.

2. 10,000 x 30 = 300k
 
2014-01-13 01:03:36 PM

mcreadyblue: Saiga410: The Stealth Hippopotamus: And who or what says we are in a recovery? Yes the unemployment is down. But we have known for some time that this was due to people giving up and not looking for work. And don't tell me we are in a recovery because the stock market is up (to quote Goldman Sachs Elevator ) "33% of DJIA is 5 stocks. Gauging the economy on that is like putting the back of your hand on your forehead for a health exam."

I wouldnt listen to anyone that claims that 1/3rd of tthe DJIA is 5 stocks.

I don't think that's what he ment.


I do not know what he means.  He also tried to make me believe that a month is 3 days long.
 
2014-01-13 01:04:14 PM

Target Builder: 2. 10,000 x 30 = 300k


Haha. Good catch.
 
2014-01-13 01:05:39 PM

thurstonxhowell: That definition is from investopedia.com, not economist.com. It is available here if you'd like the check on that. Perhaps you chose to mislead us about the source of your definition because the site goes on to say "Unemployment often remains high even as the economy begins to recover". Which would indicate that high unemployment on its own is not sufficient evidence to make the claim that we are not in recovery.


oh damn. You're right.

I'm going to blame this on Farking-from-the-iphone. But you're totally right, I did eff up the quote.


However we've been told we have been in a recovery for a long time. If there was any truth to it hiring should have begun already.


/again, my bad
 
2014-01-13 01:07:24 PM
The problem all of these unemployed people have is that they are looking for jobs while unemployed.  To get a job, you have to currently be employed, duh.  Otherwise your skills are out of date and it will take too long to get you up to speed.  You have to start from the bottom again.

/Wish I were joking.
//Except I just got a new job after looking for 9 months.  While currently employed, though.
///I feel bad for everyone who is unemployed, including others in my family.
 
2014-01-13 01:07:52 PM

Target Builder: 1. Why would they all need to retire on their birthday for the number to hold - say some retire early and some retire late, the 10k number retiring would hold fairly constant, dipped only by those who die before retiring.


Just trying to guesstimate.

Target Builder: 2. 10,000 x 30 = 300k


effing hell. Trying to eat and fark is beyond my ability today.
 
2014-01-13 01:08:01 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: jst3p: Are you claiming that our economy is not in recovery? If you are please state why. Be specific.

You want me to prove something doesn't exist?


No, but your question tells me all I need to know about your understand of economics.
 
2014-01-13 01:08:16 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: jst3p: Are you claiming that our economy is not in recovery? If you are please state why. Be specific.

You want me to prove something doesn't exist?


Oh, please. Not being personally able or willing to support a position doesn't make you a f*cking Stoic.
 
2014-01-13 01:08:17 PM

vpb: The Stealth Hippopotamus: And who or what says we are in a recovery? Yes the unemployment is down. But we have known for some time that this was due to people giving up and not looking for work. And don't tell me we are in a recovery because the stock market is up (to quote Goldman Sachs Elevator ) "33% of DJIA is 5 stocks. Gauging the economy on that is like putting the back of your hand on your forehead for a health exam."

Economists.   People who know that a recovery is when you have positive GDP growth.

Pretty much anyone who isn't out to spin the issue for political reasons.


blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com
 
2014-01-13 01:09:10 PM

togaman2k: The problem all of these unemployed people have is that they are looking for jobs while unemployed.  To get a job, you have to currently be employed, duh.  Otherwise your skills are out of date and it will take too long to get you up to speed.  You have to start from the bottom again.

/Wish I were joking.
//Except I just got a new job after looking for 9 months.  While currently employed, though.
///I feel bad for everyone who is unemployed, including others in my family.


We just filled a position here, people who were already employed definitely were considered before anyone who wasn't.
 
2014-01-13 01:14:06 PM

Because People in power are Stupid: Listening to teatards, they simultaneously tell people that McDonalds is hiring and decrying fast food workers who want a living wage.

Seriously what planet are these people on?


Nonesense, if lazy kids these days want jobs, they don't have to go to McDonalds.

They can go to Wal-Mart, Burger King, Wendys, Pizza Hut, KFC, Dollar Tree...

So many strip-malls with so many high-quality careers just waiting to be embraced by the masses!

Thank you consumerism!
 
2014-01-13 01:14:42 PM

jst3p: togaman2k: The problem all of these unemployed people have is that they are looking for jobs while unemployed.  To get a job, you have to currently be employed, duh.  Otherwise your skills are out of date and it will take too long to get you up to speed.  You have to start from the bottom again.

/Wish I were joking.
//Except I just got a new job after looking for 9 months.  While currently employed, though.
///I feel bad for everyone who is unemployed, including others in my family.

We just filled a position here, people who were already employed definitely were considered before anyone who wasn't.


That's exactly why I jump ship at the first hint of decline and always keep my resume out.  Things started slowing down, so I got ready to go.  They aren't replacing me with a full time position, just shifting work around, so I would rather leave before being told I am not needed anymore.

Plus I spend a lot of time on Fark during the day when things are slow.  Fark time goes up as work time goes down.
 
2014-01-13 01:16:05 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: They discontinued that position
Link


Dammit, now what am I supposed to do?
 
2014-01-13 01:18:32 PM

Ishidan: Mitch Taylor's Bro: 12349876: The Stealth Hippopotamus: But we have known for some time that this was due to people giving up and not looking for work

A chunk of that is called "Baby Boomers getting old"

Perhaps, but if you are between 60-65 and still want to work, you chances are pretty slim (discounting the thriving Walmart greeter job market). These are the people who are dropping out of the workforce and taking early retirement because they can't find jobs.

It would be great if 347k people per month were hitting retirement age with enough put away to actually retire and saying, "Oh well, I tried to find a job, but I've got SS and my 401k, so screw it, I'm off to play bingo for the rest of my life." I just don't think that's the case, based on everything I've read about how little Americans save for retirement and how the financial catastrophe wiped out a lot of savings for people who did.

What I'd like to know (and don't even know where to begin looking to find out) is how many of the 347k people fit that description vs. people who just don't count toward the employment figures anymore for other reasons.

And how many of those who DO want to work are taking jobs commensurate with their age and experience...as opposed to that Wal-mart greeter job, that the perky 20 year old also wants, but she can't get because some old geezer took it instead?


42?
 
2014-01-13 01:30:33 PM

Because People in power are Stupid: Listening to teatards, they simultaneously tell people that McDonalds is hiring and decrying fast food workers who want a living wage.

Seriously what planet are these people on?


It's a general strike. Minimum wage is too little to have even a minimum standard of living. So, people are going to all cash, off the grid, not reporting underground economy. I don't blame them. At these wages why not deal drugs, steal, cheat, scrap metal, etc... Why not just go to an all cash income and draw welfare benefits?

The problem is that people not in the official work force won't be ready when the economy does turn around. This is starting to worry businesses and economists, because it means that when/if the economy does turn around wages will have to increase dramatically.
 
2014-01-13 01:34:09 PM

rustypouch: Since in the last recession companies have figured out they can make just as much profit with fewer employees, why would they start hiring again?


Because of attrition and need for skilled workers. The problem with depressing labor this long is that when you need them the people with the skills won't be ready or won't want to work at your shiatty company. The real worry for business types is that wages are going to rise rapidly as nobody is providing entry level workers.
 
2014-01-13 01:36:48 PM
Just think how many jobs could be created if we finally started executing the 1% hoarding all of the wealth. A good guillotine takes two or three people to operate and a few more skilled craftsmen to build and maintain.

Plus, you'd see all sorts of multiplying benefits to the rest of the economy by removing the people whose business decisions have led to the greatest wealth disparity since the 1920s. It'd be like building a dam or a new highway, or upgrading the electrical grid.
 
2014-01-13 01:40:35 PM

BudTheSpud: Nonesense



The most limited form of nonsense.
 
2014-01-13 01:42:21 PM

thamike: BudTheSpud: Nonesense


The most limited form of nonsense.


Missed that. I feel emasculated now.
 
2014-01-13 01:43:45 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: thurstonxhowell: That definition is from investopedia.com, not economist.com. It is available here if you'd like the check on that. Perhaps you chose to mislead us about the source of your definition because the site goes on to say "Unemployment often remains high even as the economy begins to recover". Which would indicate that high unemployment on its own is not sufficient evidence to make the claim that we are not in recovery.

oh damn. You're right.

I'm going to blame this on Farking-from-the-iphone. But you're totally right, I did eff up the quote.


However we've been told we have been in a recovery for a long time. If there was any truth to it hiring should have begun already.


/again, my bad


Why hire if you are making money without hiring?

Adding labor only makes sense if it doesn't result in diminishing returns, and companies more and more are deciding that labor is either not worth it at all, or not worth the (previous) market rate.
 
2014-01-13 01:44:29 PM

BudTheSpud: thamike: BudTheSpud: Nonesense


The most limited form of nonsense.

Missed that. I feel emasculated now.


You mean elasticated.
 
2014-01-13 01:46:56 PM

jst3p: togaman2k: The problem all of these unemployed people have is that they are looking for jobs while unemployed.  To get a job, you have to currently be employed, duh.  Otherwise your skills are out of date and it will take too long to get you up to speed.  You have to start from the bottom again.

/Wish I were joking.
//Except I just got a new job after looking for 9 months.  While currently employed, though.
///I feel bad for everyone who is unemployed, including others in my family.

We just filled a position here, people who were already employed definitely were considered before anyone who wasn't.


Yeah, but that's only because they are the more skilled and valuable employees.  The person laid off may not suck, but the people remaining after rounds of layoffs definitely don't suck.  Or maybe they do....
 
2014-01-13 01:51:38 PM

Zeno-25: Just think how many jobs could be created if we finally started executing the 1% hoarding all of the wealth. A good guillotine takes two or three people to operate and a few more skilled craftsmen to build and maintain.


I will counter the offer and do the job for half the cost.  I will supply my own amunition.  I do request that the revolution provide blindfolds and cigarets.

/kill'n jobs
 
2014-01-13 01:53:09 PM

Mitch Taylor's Bro: What I'd like to know (and don't even know where to begin looking to find out) is how many of the 347k people fit that description vs. people who just don't count toward the employment figures anymore for other reasons.


While the strong majority of Boomers don't have the resources to retire early, some do, and there's something distinct about late-2013/early-2014 that makes it more possible.

Obamacare.

Again, I don't have larger numbers.  But, I do have anecdotes. One uncle who just recently quit in his early 60s.  And another acquaintance who will be quitting soon.  Both of them have largely stayed in the workforce for the health insurance. Might have had to work to 65.  Now that they can get insured at guaranteed issue, high-but-not-absurd rates, even some subsidy (the subsidizes aren't wealth-tested... if you have a million in the bank but only realize $30k in 1040 income, you can qualify), they've quit.
 
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