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(Zero Hedge)   Alan Greenspan says we should use "animal spirits" for doing economic modeling   (zerohedge.com) divider line 115
    More: Fail, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, animal spirits, price bubble, Federal Reserve Act, economic model, long-term stability, u.s. gdp, Daniel Kahneman  
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2668 clicks; posted to Main » on 02 Jan 2014 at 4:18 PM (15 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2014-01-02 03:01:29 PM
Isn't this the dump gutted, waddling dipsh*t who, after noting that his economic policy was essentially poisonous, said "whoops, yeah, I guess we screwed the pooch on that one"?  Is there any reason not to cover this foolish old man in butter and put him near a lion cage?
 
2014-01-02 03:02:27 PM
scifun.files.wordpress.com
 
2014-01-02 03:09:29 PM
s3.amazonaws.com
 
2014-01-02 03:13:50 PM
If Austrians really believe that economic forecasting is a fruitless endeavor, why are they always trying to tell us we're doomed? How the fark did they forecast that?
 
2014-01-02 03:18:03 PM
I prefer corn spirits, personally.
 
2014-01-02 03:28:16 PM
I think it is our duty as patriotic Americans to continue to give do our money to the nicest suit with the best line of bullsh*t and the most worrisome authority posture.  And to work harder to replace the wealth they steal.  As soon as we pay off our college loans and hospital bills.  For freedom.   Can I be chairman, now?
 
2014-01-02 03:29:12 PM
oops...  continue to give do our money
 
2014-01-02 03:35:25 PM
Shut the fark up.
 
2014-01-02 03:36:38 PM
It was obvious to anyone with half a brain that the housing bubble was a bubble.  I had houses near me being sold, then re-listed the next week for double the price.

Leaving interest rates at zero was like throwing gasoline onto the fire.
 
2014-01-02 03:40:11 PM

Marcus Aurelius: It was obvious to anyone with half a brain that the housing bubble was a bubble.  I had houses near me being sold, then re-listed the next week for double the price.

Leaving interest rates at zero was like throwing gasoline onto the fire.


So the game was rigged either by fools or very sly men?  Judging by the people who walked away from that bonfire with the liquidity from an entire economic sector in their bank accounts, I'm voting sly.
 
2014-01-02 03:41:36 PM
The Wise Ant School of Economics. A classic.

/better than the Insane Bitter Russian Émigré School that he had been promoting.
 
2014-01-02 03:42:11 PM

JerseyTim: [s3.amazonaws.com image 640x480]


Listen to Planet Money?
 
2014-01-02 03:45:16 PM
Stupid Rand disciple is stupid. Greenspan should shut the fark up and disappear.
 
2014-01-02 03:49:25 PM

Marcus Aurelius: It was obvious to anyone with half a brain that the housing bubble was a bubble.  I had houses near me being sold, then re-listed the next week for double the price.

Leaving interest rates at zero was like throwing gasoline onto the fire.


Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas was mocking the housing bubble years before it actually pooped.  Video gam designers could see it, but not the Fed Chairman.
 
2014-01-02 04:21:19 PM
I choose this.
1.bp.blogspot.com
 
2014-01-02 04:22:22 PM
Came to post the Planet Money spirit animal, see it's been taken care of. Jolly good show.
 
2014-01-02 04:23:22 PM

bunner: Isn't this the dump gutted, waddling dipsh*t who, after noting that his economic policy was essentially poisonous, said "whoops, yeah, I guess we screwed the pooch on that one"?  Is there any reason not to cover this foolish old man in butter and put him near a lion cage?


This. Why we continue to take these people seriously is beyond me.
 
2014-01-02 04:23:40 PM
I'll take something seriously from Zero Hedge once that imminent hyperinflation gets here.  It should be here.  Any.  Day.  Now.
 
2014-01-02 04:25:49 PM
Oblig...

animationews.com
 
2014-01-02 04:26:08 PM

JasonOfOrillia: JerseyTim: [s3.amazonaws.com image 640x480]

Listen to Planet Money?


Bingo.
 
2014-01-02 04:28:42 PM

Rapmaster2000: I'll take something seriously from Zero Hedge once that imminent hyperinflation gets here.  It should be here.  Any.  Day.  Now.


images.wallstcheatsheet.com

"Effrytink iss fine, zitizens!  Bread iss readily affaillable!"
 
2014-01-02 04:28:50 PM
So who is more stupid?
Greenspan, who stonewalls the concept of Theft Too Big to Jail, or the sycophants that he speaks to?
 
2014-01-02 04:30:47 PM

snocone: So who is more stupid?
Greenspan, who stonewalls the concept of Theft Too Big to Jail, or the sycophants that he speaks to?


I think that these crap peddlers are too lazy to steal on their own, and we just have to stop enabling them to end their crime spree by proxy.
 
2014-01-02 04:34:40 PM

bunner: Rapmaster2000: I'll take something seriously from Zero Hedge once that imminent hyperinflation gets here.  It should be here.  Any.  Day.  Now.

[images.wallstcheatsheet.com image 320x321]

"Effrytink iss fine, zitizens!  Bread iss readily affaillable!"


I think it's clearly time to put all of your money in gold.  RON PAUL!

blackquillandink.com
 
2014-01-02 04:37:52 PM
Not a single picture of a snake in a liquor bottle. You guys suck.
 
2014-01-02 04:39:36 PM
irrational exuberance
 
2014-01-02 04:40:57 PM

Rapmaster2000: I'll take something seriously from Zero Hedge once that imminent hyperinflation gets here.  It should be here.  Any.  Day.  Now.


"Hyperinflation" might be a bit strong if a word, But THIS.
 
2014-01-02 04:42:52 PM
jordoblog.files.wordpress.com
 
2014-01-02 04:46:19 PM
"There.  The poors have been put in their place, we own everything of value and have the entire government is in our back pockets.  We finally rule the world."

"Sir?  it seems the poors are out in force in front of every government and corporate office and bank in the country, armed to the teeth and building guillotines."

"Why didn't we see this coming?"

"There's no precedent for this, sir.  How could anybody have known?"

Rinse.

Repeat.

Shake etch a sketch.

Wait for the next pack of wolves.

:  /
 
2014-01-02 04:55:53 PM
This serves as a reminder to me why the French killed all their rich people.
 
2014-01-02 04:58:14 PM

Irving Maimway: This serves as a reminder to me why the French killed all their rich people.


ALL the rich people?
 
2014-01-02 05:01:58 PM

Rapmaster2000: I'll take something seriously from Zero Hedge once that imminent hyperinflation gets here.  It should be here.  Any.  Day.  Now.


That's the thing: "animal spirits" was a goofy way of justifying the softer edges of the dreadful science for Keynes. Someone actually advocating "animal spirits" solve a problem is making a plea to human nature, and human nature doesn't have a very good track record of rising to the occasion.

That said, if you think I'm going to take the advice of the Austrian school over Greenspan you are crazy. Greenspan actually did a lot of work averting and addressing disasters until he let himself get convinced "this time it's different" convince him to keep interest rates low in a boom and it resulted in the usual result which he's admitted to since. Austrians are sure "this time it's different" and countercyclical Fed behavior will blow up the markets instead of calm them, and no amount of examples of that working will ever convince them otherwise.
 
2014-01-02 05:04:49 PM
it's about as useful as trying to read the future in Alan's entrails.
Not that I'm advocating that . . . no not at all, no
 
2014-01-02 05:09:49 PM

Grungehamster: That's the thing: "animal spirits" was a goofy way of justifying the softer edges of the dreadful science for Keynes.


The term is "dismal," though maybe in light of the last several years the downgrade is warranted.
 
2014-01-02 05:15:05 PM

bunner: Marcus Aurelius: It was obvious to anyone with half a brain that the housing bubble was a bubble.  I had houses near me being sold, then re-listed the next week for double the price.

Leaving interest rates at zero was like throwing gasoline onto the fire.

So the game was rigged either by fools or very sly men?  Judging by the people who walked away from that bonfire with the liquidity from an entire economic sector in their bank accounts, I'm voting sly.


i dunno about greenspan.  he was a very high ranking member of the Randian cult in his youth and a member of ayn rand's inner circle.  he was once, and might still be, a true believer.
 
2014-01-02 05:21:16 PM
I would like to offer my economics theory as a possible yardstick to hold against federal policies when writing your congressman.

"If you give anybody anything of any value whatsoever, they tend to keep it."

Make of it what you will.

the other theories have, so far, gotten us here.
 
2014-01-02 05:24:05 PM

rumpelstiltskin: If Austrians really believe that economic forecasting is a fruitless endeavor, why are they always trying to tell us we're doomed? How the fark did they forecast that?


THIS
 
2014-01-02 05:25:52 PM

Mentat: Marcus Aurelius: It was obvious to anyone with half a brain that the housing bubble was a bubble.  I had houses near me being sold, then re-listed the next week for double the price.

Leaving interest rates at zero was like throwing gasoline onto the fire.

Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas was mocking the housing bubble years before it actually pooped.  Video gam designers could see it, but not the Fed Chairman.


Everyone knew there was a bubble; it's just that nobody knew when it would pop and very few were disciplined enough to not milk it for all they could. Most of the people I know who are doing well in real estate now are people who were fortunate enough to not have the means to jump in then.
 
2014-01-02 05:51:06 PM

Marcus Aurelius: It was obvious to anyone with half a brain that the housing bubble was a bubble.  I had houses near me being sold, then re-listed the next week for double the price.

Leaving interest rates at zero was like throwing gasoline onto the fire.


Greenspan did, in fact, observe at the time that people were more enthused about the market than they should have been. He was just wrong about where the threat was.
 
2014-01-02 05:56:46 PM

rumpelstiltskin: If Austrians really believe that economic forecasting is a fruitless endeavor, why are they always trying to tell us we're doomed? How the fark did they forecast that?


Is it like the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle: forecasting the future changes the present, resulting in the forecast's failure?
 
2014-01-02 05:58:49 PM
I am going to have to read the quotes in-context to know what he's saying. There was a Nobel Prize in econ given a few years ago to someone who proved that even if people behave irrationally, the market tends to be rational. (That's an oversimplification.) I get an inkling that suggests he was really saying something along those lines - that we're making the Black Swan mistake Taleb outlined.

Rapmaster2000: I'll take something seriously from Zero Hedge once that imminent hyperinflation gets here.  It should be here.  Any.  Day.  Now.


Any day. Which is why these people will make a shiatload of money by betting on inflation. Or not.

Ron Paul made a living on predicting disaster every year for the last 40 years and being hailed as a genius once a decade as something he said finally came true. That, and predicting conflict in the Middle East. (Will there be sand involved?)
 
2014-01-02 06:00:43 PM

mike_d85: Rapmaster2000: I'll take something seriously from Zero Hedge once that imminent hyperinflation gets here.  It should be here.  Any.  Day.  Now.

"Hyperinflation" might be a bit strong if a word, But THIS.


The comment that got me to stop reading ZeroHedge (Didn't realize they were the economic WNutD) was this:

"They're eternal pessimists.  And the history of the last few decades has been eternal optimists making 8% over the long run and eternal pessimists making nothing".

/Luckily, "link to ZeroHedge" -> "Wow, these guys are interesting" -> "Wow, these guys have issues" was about 8 hours.
//Instead of the 18 months that I gave to Hot Air.  (Hint: Teenage Rebellion + Liberal Parent that you hate = Conservative)
 
2014-01-02 06:08:37 PM
theinfosphere.org
 
2014-01-02 06:15:36 PM

Ricardo Klement: who proved that even if people behave irrationally, the market tends to be rational.


Seems that should be the other way around.
 
2014-01-02 06:18:01 PM

bunner: So the game was rigged either by fools or very sly men?  Judging by the people who walked away from that bonfire with the liquidity from an entire economic sector in their bank accounts, I'm voting sly.


Whether one was sly or a fool only depended on whether you were holding onto rapidly depreciating assets when the music stopped.

The US functions on a bubble-based economy.  There's no point in trying to fix it, the only people actually incented to fix it are poor and politically disempowered.  It's the logical extension of 'greed is good'.
 
2014-01-02 06:18:52 PM

impaler: Ricardo Klement: who proved that even if people behave irrationally, the market tends to be rational.

Seems that should be the other way around.


Bottom-line: the market always behaves rationally. In retrospect, it did exactly what you would expect it to once you know what the inputs are.
 
2014-01-02 06:20:28 PM

NorCalLos: Everyone knew there was a bubble; it's just that nobody knew when it would pop and very few were disciplined enough to not milk it for all they could. Most of the people I know who are doing well in real estate now are people who were fortunate enough to not have the means to jump in then.


And the people who tried to stem the tied before it got too late were all dismissed from any position of authority.
 
2014-01-02 06:24:07 PM

unyon: bunner: So the game was rigged either by fools or very sly men?  Judging by the people who walked away from that bonfire with the liquidity from an entire economic sector in their bank accounts, I'm voting sly.

Whether one was sly or a fool only depended on whether you were holding onto rapidly depreciating assets when the music stopped.

The US functions on a bubble-based economy.  There's no point in trying to fix it, the only people actually incented to fix it are poor and politically disempowered.  It's the logical extension of 'greed is good'.


Here's an idea.  When The Nice Man In Charge™ tells you with great urgency to get off your your chair and march around the chairs in a circle, stay in your chair.
 
2014-01-02 06:25:08 PM
 -1 "your"
 
2014-01-02 06:26:41 PM

mike_d85: Rapmaster2000: I'll take something seriously from Zero Hedge once that imminent hyperinflation gets here.  It should be here.  Any.  Day.  Now.

"Hyperinflation" might be a bit strong if a word, But THIS.


I've read Zero Hedge most days since 2009. Zero Hedge did forecast hyperinflation in the early days following the crash following the stimulus and the Fed intervention and they were definitely wrong about this. But they were also one of the first to note the disconnect between the markets (namely the Russell 2000 and the S&P500) and the broader economy. At first, the running joke became that bad news was good news for the markets. Rising unemployment? S&P went up. Rise in consumer confidence? S&P went down. They realized early on that the current bull market was and continues to be a Fed-driven phenomenon.

Zero Hedge is opinionated, occasionally wrong, and prone to hyperbole. But they have also been primary sources for everything from high frequency trading amid low market volume, the importance of the VIX, and the European cover-up of government financial health.
 
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