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(The Verge)   The US government predicts that by 2040, barely anyone will be using electric cars. Wait, that's already reality   (theverge.com) divider line 190
    More: Sad, electric cars, United States, plug-in hybrids, gasoline engines  
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6512 clicks; posted to Main » on 23 Dec 2013 at 3:53 AM (17 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-12-22 09:43:52 PM
This is the problem with capitalism.

The market is like the goose that lays golden eggs and needs a castle full of giants to keep some jack off from cornering it and not letting anyone else in.

All things being equal, electric cars would be popular. But you have to have a group mandate the creation of infrastructure. You can't just ask an individual to bear the obscene burden of that cost alone. That's why it took up 2000 years to utilize Hero's Engine. That said, ONCE the infrastructure is in place, everyone benefits and then you have the illusion of a free market.
 
2013-12-22 09:44:22 PM
We bought a gas powered standard minivan recently, the family car, the car for long trips and whatnot. We have another car with 150k we will drive into the ground. And then? The next new car will be a Leaf, Volt, or whatever EV works out to be the best. (Ideally something with a 200 mile range.)

I imagine until the range gets good, EVs will be backup vehicles. But EVs are here to stay.

Besides, 2040 is almost 30 farking years away. Making predictions that far out is a fool's game. By then we could all be working from home jacking into ports in our brains, not driving anywhere because fark that shiat. Or if you're all glass half empty, we could all be a pile of irradiated bones being crunched underfoot by an army of Terminators.
 
2013-12-22 09:57:19 PM
how interesting.  i wonder if i can borrow their cyrstal ball
 
2013-12-22 10:20:33 PM

bdub77: We bought a gas powered standard minivan recently, the family car, the car for long trips and whatnot. We have another car with 150k we will drive into the ground. And then? The next new car will be a Leaf, Volt, or whatever EV works out to be the best. (Ideally something with a 200 mile range.)

I imagine until the range gets good, EVs will be backup vehicles. But EVs are here to stay.


I feel the same way.  Right now a pure electric can make sense as a second vehicle that will purely be used for around-town errands and commuting, but I wouldn't feel comfortable with something with that limited a range as my only car.

I've been eying the Volt, and even took one for a test drive.  I was very impressed by how it drives, and having the gasoline engine as a backup and range extender is a great idea.  Unfortunately it's a little bit tight in the shoulder space for me, but hopefully they make it a bit roomier in the second generation.

 Of course, the high price of electric vehicles is the other big concern.  Right now the big tax credits help a lot, but if those go away, they become a lot less appealing.  Hopefully the battery technology will have matured enough by that time so that the price of the vehicle drops to offset the loss of the tax credit.
 
2013-12-22 10:41:44 PM
Are these the same jackoffs that said no one would shop online?
Predictions rarely come true.
 
2013-12-22 11:50:04 PM

doglover: This is the problem with capitalism.

The market is like the goose that lays golden eggs and needs a castle full of giants to keep some jack off from cornering it and not letting anyone else in.

All things being equal, electric cars would be popular. But you have to have a group mandate the creation of infrastructure. You can't just ask an individual to bear the obscene burden of that cost alone. That's why it took up 2000 years to utilize Hero's Engine. That said, ONCE the infrastructure is in place, everyone benefits and then you have the illusion of a free market.


No electric cars on the road so capitalism must go?
 
2013-12-23 01:57:17 AM

Bucky Katt: how interesting.  i wonder if i can borrow their cyrstal ball


I used to like to walk the straight and narrow line
I used to think that everything was fine
Sometimes I'd like to sit and gaze for days through sleepless dreams
All alone and trapped in time
All alone and trapped in time

I wonder what tomorrow has in mind for me
Or am I even in it's mind at all
Perhaps I'll get a chance to look ahead and see
Soon as I find myself a crystal ball
Soon as I find myself a crystal ball
 
2013-12-23 02:18:09 AM
I thought hybrids were already pretty popular.
 
2013-12-23 03:44:58 AM

log_jammin: I thought hybrids were already pretty popular.


There's no "range anxiety" like with electric cars.

/that term is total bullshiat; range anxiety exists even with gas cars.
 
2013-12-23 03:54:51 AM
The future is now!
 
2013-12-23 03:55:16 AM
Some days I wish cars would be IBS powered; I'm sure I could shove a pipe up my ass and drive at least across town.
 
2013-12-23 04:01:41 AM

themindiswatching: log_jammin: I thought hybrids were already pretty popular.

There's no "range anxiety" like with electric cars.

/that term is total bullshiat; range anxiety exists even with gas cars.


Well, kinda. If the range of your car is 400 miles there's not much to be anxious about. You could drive for almost a full day on that and you'd pass an almost uncountable number of gas stations. The ridiculous number of gas stations we have almost everywhere means that you're rarely anxious. I have never run out of gas in my entire life, actually. Ok once my Mom sent me out to get gas for her car and the damn thing ran out halfway to the gas station. THANKS MOM.

OTOH if your range is 50 miles, then going from the burbs to downtown and back means you're going to have to be worried about if you can just quite make it home before you run out of juice.

Battery technology seems to be the stumbling point. Eventually that will catch up to demand and we'll have multi-hundred mile ranges. That'll be wicked cool IMHO. But hybrids will be here until EV fill stations become ubiquitous.
 
2013-12-23 04:03:25 AM
 
2013-12-23 04:03:38 AM
The slow adoption and development progress of electric cars is one of the biggest reasons I can think of of why capitalism is the worst farking system we as a species have come up with yet.

Oh, here's an obviously superior product that's safer and cleaner for everyone involved!

fark that, gimme my Hummer so that the size of my dick will never be in question.

/I hate all of you.
 
2013-12-23 04:05:04 AM
Electric cars are half-iPod half car technologically speaking. Good luck predicting how tech products behave.
 
2013-12-23 04:05:55 AM
a staggering 78 percent of light duty vehicles will still be sold with gasoline engines in that year

Won't we be out of petroleum by that point?  Or did they underestimate how much the world has left?

I remember as a kid back in the late 80s, my science teacher said the world would run out of oil by about 2000.
 
2013-12-23 04:06:40 AM

Esroc: The slow adoption and development progress of electric cars is one of the biggest reasons I can think of of why capitalism is the worst farking system we as a species have come up with yet.

Oh, here's an obviously superior product that's safer and cleaner for everyone involved!

fark that, gimme my Hummer so that the size of my dick will never be in question.

/I hate all of you.


They don't make hummers anymore due to no demand. they're making more and more electric/hybrid cars due to increased demand.

you now look very very stupid.

/we hate you too
 
2013-12-23 04:10:28 AM

doglover: This is the problem with capitalism.

The market is like the goose that lays golden eggs and needs a castle full of giants to keep some jack off from cornering it and not letting anyone else in.

All things being equal, electric cars would be popular. But you have to have a group mandate the creation of infrastructure. You can't just ask an individual to bear the obscene burden of that cost alone. That's why it took up 2000 years to utilize Hero's Engine. That said, ONCE the infrastructure is in place, everyone benefits and then you have the illusion of a free market.


Hawaii would be the perfect market for EVs. Give tax credits for rooftop PV systems and discounts on rechargers at home and subsidize chargers for businesses.

Given the cost of gas in HI this could be the example test market since short commutes are the norm.
 
2013-12-23 04:10:29 AM
We all know that Paul Ryan is an idiot.

Here's some reinforcement for that view.

http://lesbates.blogspot.com/2013/12/betrayal-of-trust.html
 
2013-12-23 04:13:25 AM
I predict that in 30 years, those who are now predicting what the world will be like in 30 years will be proven wrong.
 
2013-12-23 04:16:31 AM
Well being that this is the governments position on the subject, I believe that electric cars will be wildly popular by 2040. It seems that anything our government backs over the last few years has failed so miserably. So by that logic I just believe that whatever the government says, go the other way
 
2013-12-23 04:16:40 AM

theotherles: Here's some reinforcement for that view.


I know a Les Bates will run, but what kind of mileage does it get ? Les Bates? Is that like one of those Le Cars? I love French things... like French kisses.
 
2013-12-23 04:16:44 AM
We're not going to make it to 2040 anyway;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem
http://computer.howstuffworks.com/question75.htm

/Y2k 2: Electric Boogaloo
 
2013-12-23 04:22:10 AM

Esroc: The slow adoption and development progress of electric cars is one of the biggest reasons I can think of of why capitalism is the worst farking system we as a species have come up with yet.


Yeah. More businesses should spend their time, money and resources producing products that nobody wants.
 
2013-12-23 04:24:03 AM

Boo_Guy: We're not going to make it to 2040 anyway;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_2038_problem
http://computer.howstuffworks.com/question75.htm

/Y2k 2: Electric Boogaloo


Job security. Awesome!
 
2013-12-23 04:24:29 AM

DrPainMD: Esroc: The slow adoption and development progress of electric cars is one of the biggest reasons I can think of of why capitalism is the worst farking system we as a species have come up with yet.

Yeah. More businesses should spend their time, money and resources producing products that nobody wants.


When its a superior product, yes. Yes, they should. Capitalism doesn't create innovation. It pushes to a point of sustainability then stops. Capitalism after a certain point stifles innovation.
 
2013-12-23 04:30:34 AM

Esroc: Oh, here's an obviously superior product that's safer and cleaner for everyone involved!


That's the problem, it's not 'obviously superior'.  It's expensive, range limited, takes longer to refuel, etc...  These are but a short list of the disadvantees up against things like '100% torque at 0 rpm', 'no local emissions', 'can be recharged by any electricity source, including non-polluting', 'quiet', 'no need to visit gas stations', etc..

If it was better in every column, then yeah, it'd be an easy choice.  If it was better in 90% of the columns, then it'd be the normal choice, much like how gasoline was the normal choice a decade ago, with EV's generally relegated to warehouses and such where local emissions were a larger concern than the cost.
 
2013-12-23 04:30:35 AM

Esroc: DrPainMD: Esroc: The slow adoption and development progress of electric cars is one of the biggest reasons I can think of of why capitalism is the worst farking system we as a species have come up with yet.

Yeah. More businesses should spend their time, money and resources producing products that nobody wants.

When its a superior product, yes. Yes, they should. Capitalism doesn't create innovation. It pushes to a point of sustainability then stops. Capitalism after a certain point stifles innovation.


Sorry. I didn't realize that I was talking to a graduate of our public school system.
 
2013-12-23 04:31:38 AM
ELECTRIC CARS ARE NOT A SUPERIOR PRODUCT.
 
2013-12-23 04:34:25 AM

Yogimus: ELECTRIC CARS ARE NOT A SUPERIOR PRODUCT.


www.thetimes.co.uk
 
2013-12-23 04:35:59 AM

Yogimus: ELECTRIC CARS ARE NOT A SUPERIOR PRODUCT.


Not yet.
 
2013-12-23 04:37:30 AM
While the rest of the civilized world looks down on us and laughs at the poor, backwards  Americans who used to be a big deal once.
 
2013-12-23 04:44:02 AM

themindiswatching: /that term is total bullshiat; range anxiety exists even with gas cars.


Horseshiat.  Maybe if you're stupid poor and you can't afford to fill up, but otherwise a normal person does not worry about their car suddenly running out of gas.  And if you do run out of gas, you can easily carry it to you car.  You can't do that with electricity.

Range anxiety exists because the infrastructure isn't quite there yet and the effective range of electrics isn't quite big enough to cover the spread.  Nissan says the Leaf can get up to 75 miles a charge, but that will vary based on temperature, usage, accessories, etc.  That's not long enough.  God forbid you get stuck in a traffic jam in winter at night.

That's why hybrids are popular - because you aren't stuck if you run out of juice.  Until we have battery or generator trucks scouring the country, there's always going to be some anxiety about running out of power.
 
2013-12-23 04:44:13 AM

Old enough to know better: While the rest of the civilized world looks down on us and laughs at the poor, backwards  Americans who used to be a big deal once.


We'll get there, but only after we've exhausted every other bad option.
 
2013-12-23 04:46:05 AM

Old enough to know better: While the rest of the civilized world looks down on us and laughs at the poor, backwards  Americans who used to be a big deal once.


2/10
 
2013-12-23 04:47:37 AM

themindiswatching: Old enough to know better: While the rest of the civilized world looks down on us and laughs at the poor, backwards  Americans who used to be a big deal once.

We'll get there, but only after we've exhausted every other bad option.


What if each electric car were also a gun that makes cheeseburgers?
 
2013-12-23 04:48:49 AM

Old enough to know better: While the rest of the civilized world looks down on us and laughs at the poor, backwards  Americans who used to be a big deal once.


We just have a bigger country, that's all.  Electric cars are great for cities, not so much for those vast areas in between them.  It's not like the rest of the world has converted over to electric cars yet, either.
 
2013-12-23 04:49:58 AM
An inferior car made under the capitalist system:
www.creativecrash.com


A superior car made under a non-capitalist system:
3.bp.blogspot.com
 
2013-12-23 04:50:23 AM

log_jammin: Old enough to know better: While the rest of the civilized world looks down on us and laughs at the poor, backwards  Americans who used to be a big deal once.

2/10


He's not wrong. We're already starting to do that.
 
2013-12-23 04:50:28 AM

Quantum Apostrophe: themindiswatching: Old enough to know better: While the rest of the civilized world looks down on us and laughs at the poor, backwards  Americans who used to be a big deal once.

We'll get there, but only after we've exhausted every other bad option.

What if each electric car were also a gun that makes cheeseburgers?


*places hand over heart*

Oh, say can you see...
 
2013-12-23 04:51:23 AM
Last year at this time we purchased a plug-in hybrid... A Ford c-max Energi.

Observations:

1. It's awesome.
2. see point 1.
 
2013-12-23 04:52:28 AM

Smoking GNU: He's not wrong. We're already starting to do that.


a thread jack that boils down to nothing more than "lol usa sucks lol", in a thread about electric cars.

2/10
 
2013-12-23 04:52:42 AM
I think the price of oil in 2040 will have more effect on this question than any other factor. If we hit peak production and prices get very high, then bicycles will be outdoing both... If production can be maintained at a high level and prices don't rise too much, then they are likely to be right (even if Miami starts disappearing into the sea, because fark you we do what we want even if it kills us).

Echoing many people in this thread, though, I will say prediction is a fool's game. Many people expected peak oil by now, but global production continues to rise (very, very slowly now). On the other hand, those that claimed things would just get better and cheaper forever were also quite wrong, oil and even metals like copper are much more expensive than the past.

EVs are a neat but I feel a bit of "too little, too late". Besides, they don't solve the biggest issues with cars, traffic, paving the planet, encouraging the creation of unwalkable space, and using a shiatload of resources to move usually one person around. Those of you who are unaware that these are real problems, I encourage you to try to bike and walk for a week, or even a weekend.
 
2013-12-23 04:55:42 AM
oul at 200 bucks a barrel will mean we will start going after oil that costs 190 bucks a barrel to extract.
 
2013-12-23 04:57:15 AM

Quantum Apostrophe: Some days I wish cars would be IBS powered; I'm sure I could shove a pipe up my ass and drive at least across town.


Well... uh... you don't need to wait for the power to be worked out, if that's what's stopping you.

/NTTAWWT
 
2013-12-23 04:58:33 AM

log_jammin: Quantum Apostrophe: themindiswatching: Old enough to know better: While the rest of the civilized world looks down on us and laughs at the poor, backwards  Americans who used to be a big deal once.

We'll get there, but only after we've exhausted every other bad option.

What if each electric car were also a gun that makes cheeseburgers?

*places hand over heart*

Oh, say can you see...


That's actually Jose can you see...

/It will be by 2040
 
2013-12-23 05:01:20 AM

Boo_Guy: That's actually Jose can you see...

/It will be by 2040


then the car/gun would have to make tacos instead of cheeseburgers.
 
2013-12-23 05:02:19 AM

Dahnkster: theotherles: Here's some reinforcement for that view.

I know a Les Bates will run, but what kind of mileage does it get ? Les Bates? Is that like one of those Le Cars? I love French things... like French kisses.


A Les Bates comes with a standard gearbox.
 
2013-12-23 05:05:33 AM

Lsherm: themindiswatching: /that term is total bullshiat; range anxiety exists even with gas cars.

Horseshiat.  Maybe if you're stupid poor and you can't afford to fill up, but otherwise a normal person does not worry about their car suddenly running out of gas.


I had range anxiety once, while driving in a remote area near the California-Nevada border, and the only gas station for 50 miles in any direction was something like $5.95 a gallon.  I estimated I could make it to Interstate 15 on my remaining fuel, and I did.  But I had some anxiety there.

That's an unusual situation though.

I bet electric cars do get more popular in Los Angeles, not as much need for heating and air conditioning, strong push to reduce emissions, and there is already a decent infrastructure here.  (I've seen quite a few places with recharging stations.)  The technology will get cheaper and better because there are major military uses and you cannot stop the US War Machine.
 
2013-12-23 05:06:30 AM

Esroc: The slow adoption and development progress of electric cars is one of the biggest reasons I can think of of why capitalism is the worst farking system we as a species have come up with yet.

Oh, here's an obviously superior product that's safer and cleaner for everyone involved!

fark that, gimme my Hummer so that the size of my dick will never be in question.

/I hate all of you.


A classic objection.

"A major source of objection to a free economy is precisely that it ... gives people what they want instead of what a particular group thinks they ought to want. Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself." ~Milton Friedman
 
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