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(Deadspin)   "I'd like to apply for your vacancy as head coach of North Dakota football." "Okay, what's your experience?" "My years of dominating Madden and NCAA Football on the Playstation, of course"   (deadspin.com) divider line 11
    More: Amusing, NCAA Football, North Dakota, PlayStation, head coaches, North Dakota football, Christopher McComas, call for bids, University of North Dakota  
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1919 clicks; posted to Sports » on 12 Dec 2013 at 2:49 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



Voting Results (Smartest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

2013-12-12 08:20:32 AM  
4 votes:

Tommy Moo: The NFL is full of lousy coaches. It's not a meritocracy. A single actuarial scientist could absolutely dominate as a head coach. Almost none of the head coaches in the league understand risk/reward. This is why you see stupid shiat like people kneeling the ball down at the end of the half because the other team might return an interception for a TD (2% likelihood, meanwhile your likelihood of scoring at TD on a hail mary is more like 10%) and punting from the other team's 40 yard line (once you cross midfield, you should always go for it on 4th, unless you can kick a FG.)

I'm not exaggerating when I say that I could out coach anyone in the league using only math. I'd hire other guys to train the players, as that's not my specialty. I'd simply sit there and let a computer pick the highest probability play for each situation, and I would win, I promise you. But you have to be someone's buddy to be hired in the NFL. The 32 teams create the illusion of competition. The only real competition is all 32 of them colluding together to take as much money as possible from the public.


Sounds like you'd make an excellent coordinator or film study guy. Coaches often don't make the best choice percentage wise because you're not playing percentages, you're playing people. What can your team conceivably accomplish, how will your players execute, can you get their heads right if they do give up the end of half return for the TD?

It's great to know that a bubble screen to your RB will avg 4.3yrds - but it's 13 degrees outside, your rb has already fumbled twice this game and you know he's beating himself up mentally. So instead you run a slant to the TE for 3 yrds and hope he can pick up the extra for the first down.

But this is the internet, where everyone is an expert about everything.
2013-12-12 12:59:19 PM  
1 votes:

Tommy Moo: I'd do much the same. Plug the situation into the data. The computer has tens of thousands of plays from 30 years of games. It knows that on 3rd and 6 from the 49 yard line the offense plays 3 wide out from the shotgun 72% of the time. Putting in a nickel package results in a punt or turnover 67% of the time, while running a corner blitz results in a punt or turnover 63% of the time (I'm making these numbers up, but a computer wouldn't) so you go with the nickel.


Your system sounds purely reactive to past plays and probabilities
What if the other guy has a computer too? He can pretty accurately predict what you will do.
2013-12-12 12:42:26 PM  
1 votes:

mikaloyd: Tommy Moo: The NFL is full of lousy coaches. It's not a meritocracy. A single actuarial scientist could absolutely dominate as a head coach. Almost none of the head coaches in the league understand risk/reward. This is why you see stupid shiat like people kneeling the ball down at the end of the half because the other team might return an interception for a TD (2% likelihood, meanwhile your likelihood of scoring at TD on a hail mary is more like 10%) and punting from the other team's 40 yard line (once you cross midfield, you should always go for it on 4th, unless you can kick a FG.)

I'm not exaggerating when I say that I could out coach anyone in the league using only math. I'd hire other guys to train the players, as that's not my specialty. I'd simply sit there and let a computer pick the highest probability play for each situation, and I would win, I promise you. But you have to be someone's buddy to be hired in the NFL. The 32 teams create the illusion of competition. The only real competition is all 32 of them colluding together to take as much money as possible from the public.

Fascinating. Groundbreaking really. Do you have a scheme for your defense too?


He's just going to hit "Ask Madden." Even if it only works on 1 drive a game, he's golden. Obviously no one is going to be able to stop his offense. Honestly it's kind of embarrassing you had to ask.
2013-12-12 11:45:05 AM  
1 votes:

AdamK: i used to dominate in tecmo bowl by passing deep every down on the left side of the field


I'm a DOS-era guy, so my game of choice was Mike Ditka's Ultimate Football on an old 386. My go-to play was to set up a pass formation, run a QB keeper downfield until all the defense was keying on me, and then throw a pass to a wide-open receiver because the game designers forgot about the whole "line of scrimmage" thing.

Once you find a bug like that in a game, it's hard to not keep exploiting it.
2013-12-12 10:34:22 AM  
1 votes:

dragonchild: INeedAName: Coaches often don't make the best choice percentage wise because you're not playing percentages, you're playing people.

That's a charitable way of saying they make opinions based on emotion, which is a hallmark of bad leadership.


Er, um, no. Not even close.  Think of it this way: If, normally, your best sniper could kill a guy from 1,000 yards 95% of the time, but yesterday he just got a letter from his wife saying his baby who he's never met has cancer, would you still have him take the shot that could make or break your operation?  How about the same guy, but he's blown a couple of operations by missing the target?

Emotion plays a huge part in percentages.  I mean, take a look at the teams that are perpetually at the bottom of the league: Cleveland has at least one "Factory of Sadness"-level fan blowup a year; we know what a clownhouse the Jets are, and no one in Florida seriously expects their team to finish above .500.  Are you saying that Tommy Moo could turn all of that around with just his statistics?
2013-12-12 09:14:38 AM  
1 votes:

INeedAName: Tommy Moo: The NFL is full of lousy coaches. It's not a meritocracy. A single actuarial scientist could absolutely dominate as a head coach. Almost none of the head coaches in the league understand risk/reward. This is why you see stupid shiat like people kneeling the ball down at the end of the half because the other team might return an interception for a TD (2% likelihood, meanwhile your likelihood of scoring at TD on a hail mary is more like 10%) and punting from the other team's 40 yard line (once you cross midfield, you should always go for it on 4th, unless you can kick a FG.)

I'm not exaggerating when I say that I could out coach anyone in the league using only math. I'd hire other guys to train the players, as that's not my specialty. I'd simply sit there and let a computer pick the highest probability play for each situation, and I would win, I promise you. But you have to be someone's buddy to be hired in the NFL. The 32 teams create the illusion of competition. The only real competition is all 32 of them colluding together to take as much money as possible from the public.

Sounds like you'd make an excellent coordinator or film study guy. Coaches often don't make the best choice percentage wise because you're not playing percentages, you're playing people. What can your team conceivably accomplish, how will your players execute, can you get their heads right if they do give up the end of half return for the TD?

It's great to know that a bubble screen to your RB will avg 4.3yrds - but it's 13 degrees outside, your rb has already fumbled twice this game and you know he's beating himself up mentally. So instead you run a slant to the TE for 3 yrds and hope he can pick up the extra for the first down.

But this is the internet, where everyone is an expert about everything.


And it's not just the math - you have to be able to manage the roster, know who needs to be in on a given play, and make fifty choices in the span of fifteen seconds.  Being an NFL head coach means putting in 100+ hours a week.  Joe Gibbs' wife made him retire when he was only 53 because he was killing himself; he slept most nights in a cot in his office.

Down at the college level, it's not just Xs and Os either.  A college head coach has to be a salesman as well.  You have to spend a lot of time pitching to boosters and recruits.  In the NFL you ideally have a general manager or director of player personnel to assist in building the roster and take care of a lot of logistical things.  In college, the head coach is the one offering all the scholarships, and the one making all the appearances at the booster clubs.  It's equal parts politics and whiteboards.

whizbangthedirtfarmer: But when that 2% happens, the fans will be screaming for your head and the announcers will LOL all over you


And this is why the coaching profession is so conservative (in a non-political sense).  A head coach knows it only takes one bad season to get fired, and it only takes one really bad game or outcome to turn a good season into a mediocre one, or a mediocre season into a terrible one.  The NFL is a league where a guy can go 14-2 and miss the Super Bowl because of a fumbled interception and still get fired.  Mistakes kill careers, which is why the risk/reward ratio seems ridiculously skewed when you're on field-level.
2013-12-12 09:04:15 AM  
1 votes:

Tommy Moo: I'm not exaggerating when I say that I could out coach anyone in the league using only math. I'd hire other guys to train the players, as that's not my specialty. I'd simply sit there and let a computer pick the highest probability play for each situation, and I would win


Because you know that something like a a double A blitz is coming, you know it's not like defenses disguise what they're doing, and have enough time to let the computer pick the play with the correct blocking scheme accordingly.

You would lose, and lose bad.
2013-12-12 08:53:03 AM  
1 votes:
Back in the day, I could finish Street Fighter 2 on one quarter while using Blanca. That should qualify me to be a UFC fighter, right?

/loved how he mentioned that he prefers coke to pepsi so they should stock the fridge accordingly
2013-12-12 07:38:03 AM  
1 votes:
The NFL is full of lousy coaches. It's not a meritocracy. A single actuarial scientist could absolutely dominate as a head coach. Almost none of the head coaches in the league understand risk/reward. This is why you see stupid shiat like people kneeling the ball down at the end of the half because the other team might return an interception for a TD (2% likelihood, meanwhile your likelihood of scoring at TD on a hail mary is more like 10%) and punting from the other team's 40 yard line (once you cross midfield, you should always go for it on 4th, unless you can kick a FG.)

I'm not exaggerating when I say that I could out coach anyone in the league using only math. I'd hire other guys to train the players, as that's not my specialty. I'd simply sit there and let a computer pick the highest probability play for each situation, and I would win, I promise you. But you have to be someone's buddy to be hired in the NFL. The 32 teams create the illusion of competition. The only real competition is all 32 of them colluding together to take as much money as possible from the public.
2013-12-12 07:00:29 AM  
1 votes:
OK, his PowerPoint presentation had me laughing.
2013-12-12 02:56:24 AM  
1 votes:
My resume:

1. Hours of Tecmo Bowl
2. Run Bo Jackson
3. Win
 
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