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(Slate)   Some believe the path to immortality is through their work; others, their children. Then there's this computer-scientist/inventor who believes he has an 80% chance of achieving it by not ever dying   (slate.com) divider line 140
    More: Interesting, Ray Kurzweil, cheat death, old humans, emerging technologies, paths, inventors  
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5497 clicks; posted to Geek » on 01 Dec 2013 at 3:38 PM (42 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-12-01 07:03:45 PM

LazarusLong42: SomethingToDo: mrlewish: Fallacy:  Appeal to Authority

The second law of thermodynamics is more of a guideline than a rule, but the way animal life gets around it is by constantly reintroducing variation by sexual reproduction. Plus, the ironic death of people like this is a source of constant sport and satisfaction for the universe.

Actually, we get around the Second Law by using energy from the giant ball of incandescent plasma 150 million km away.

Which isn't really getting around it at all.


It shouldn't be unsurprising though, that big factors in the death in individuals are exposure to the yellow eye that burns us, and the ways we take in and use the energy we get from the yellow eye that burns us.
 
2013-12-01 07:08:17 PM
I hate Kurzweil and his kook brigade.
 
2013-12-01 07:09:19 PM
images.moviepostershop.com
Joseph Weizenbaum (8 January 1923 - 5 March 2008) was a was a German and American computer scientist and a professor emeritus at MIT. He explains in great detail why it is that you would never want to put your soul into anything resembling current technology or an evolutionary offshoot thereof. In 1966 he programed ELIZA, an "AI therapist".  He was horrified when people in the lab started treating it as a real psychotherapist. Why? When ELIZA says "I understand" It's a lie. It cannot understand. It has no mind. It's a script attached to a database.

The movie is farking brilliant. You start out thinking hes a dottering old man who has no idea what he's talking about, then goes on to show you he knows exactly what he is talking about.

There is no intelligence behind ANY AI today. Deep blue might be able to beat Gary Kasparov in chess, but it cannot play tic tac toe.

Self driving cars cannot fly aircraft.

Siri understands language, but cannot comprehend it. Voice to text still cannot put grammar into your sentences. You have to tell it where to place punctuation. If you tell Siri you are sad, you get a canned response from a programmer at Apple, put there to make the program feel more human.

Show me an AI that can be creative. Show me an AI that doesn't need to be reset on a regular basis. Show me hardware that can contain a soul.

Show me a computer that doesn't need critical updates. Show me an OS that's never royally farked someones shiat up because of a critical update. Show me a computer that can find a bug in itself, and repair that code. That can improve upon itself without a programmer ticking away at a keyboard behind the scenes. Show me a wireless network that doesn't have a ratsnest of cables somewhere.

Show me a computer that thinks, and maybe we will have begun to take our first steps infantile towards the singularity.

A simple man machine interface is all this fool is talking about when he thinks of the singularity. Being able to quantify memories and experiences into data.

Nobody has even begun to approach creating a MIND that LEARN from those memories and experiences. All the augmentations in the world won't save your ghost from brain death.  When the meat dies, you are nothing but a pale imitation of yourself. You end up as data in a box, unable to think, reason, learn, laugh, or grieve.

/Ghost hacked humans are so pathetic. Nothing but puppets on strings.
 
2013-12-01 07:16:23 PM

theorellior: secularsage: The truth of the matter is that Kurzweil doesn't understand a lot of the science that he cites, and he's not that different from Deepak Chopra in the way he takes ideas that are grounded in reality and then mixes then with his own thinking, but presents both as if they're absolutely true and founded in research.

This. Chopra fleeces the MBAs, Kurzweil fleeces the PhDs.




When you are looking that far into the future, it often seems like magical tales.

It reminds me of the story of Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis, who tried to convince doctors in the 1850s to wash their hands prior to delivering babies.
 
2013-12-01 07:20:42 PM

TedCruz'sCrazyDad: theorellior: secularsage: The truth of the matter is that Kurzweil doesn't understand a lot of the science that he cites, and he's not that different from Deepak Chopra in the way he takes ideas that are grounded in reality and then mixes then with his own thinking, but presents both as if they're absolutely true and founded in research.

This. Chopra fleeces the MBAs, Kurzweil fleeces the PhDs.

When you are looking that far into the future, it often seems like magical tales.

It reminds me of the story of Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis, who tried to convince doctors in the 1850s to wash their hands prior to delivering babies.


That's just too funny, I mean seriously the babby hasn't touched *anything* yet, its probably the cleanest thing on the planet at that moment.
 
2013-12-01 07:22:03 PM

TuteTibiImperes: if we were able to create a computer program that modeled the human brain exactly, and transferred all of the data from a brain to that program perfectly, I don't believe that the person's consciousness would suddenly transfer into that program.


No, of course not. You need glands.

1-media-cdn.foolz.us
/hotter than a take away Klatchian curry
 
2013-12-01 07:28:37 PM

js34603: Ned Stark: TuteTibiImperes: There has to be more about what makes life than just the firing of neurons in the brain.

why?

He already answered this. He desperately wants it to be true so he just believes it is true. Can't explain that.


Well, sure, that's part of it, but as of yet it's not proven one way or the other.  I believe FTL travel is possible, that there are other advanced civilizations out in space, and that someday either us or them will find a way to travel across space to interact with each other.  I have no proof of this, but there's no proof it can't happen either, it's still up in the air until we figure it out.

I'd be willing to admit I'm wrong about the nature of life if someone were able to create an artificial brain and 'upload' a human consciousness into it with that person then seeing, feeling, comprehending, etc, just as they did before but with their new artificial organs.  Someday someone will try, and if any of us are still around, we'll see what happens.
 
2013-12-01 07:42:16 PM

TuteTibiImperes: ell, sure, that's part of it, but as of yet it's not proven one way or the other.


YOU CANT PROVE I WAS EVOLUTED FROM NO MONKEY!
 
2013-12-01 07:55:39 PM
John Lumic please pick up the white courtesy phone...
 
2013-12-01 07:56:44 PM

TedCruz'sCrazyDad: It reminds me of the story of Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis, who tried to convince doctors in the 1850s to wash their hands prior to delivering babies.


You're really comparing basic aseptic practice to woo-woo pie-in-the-sky Kurzweil crazniess?

Good login.
 
2013-12-01 08:20:17 PM
lol He'll be dead before 80.
 
2013-12-01 08:22:16 PM

BumpInTheNight: TedCruz'sCrazyDad: theorellior: secularsage: The truth of the matter is that Kurzweil doesn't understand a lot of the science that he cites, and he's not that different from Deepak Chopra in the way he takes ideas that are grounded in reality and then mixes then with his own thinking, but presents both as if they're absolutely true and founded in research.

This. Chopra fleeces the MBAs, Kurzweil fleeces the PhDs.

When you are looking that far into the future, it often seems like magical tales.

It reminds me of the story of Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis, who tried to convince doctors in the 1850s to wash their hands prior to delivering babies.

That's just too funny, I mean seriously the babby hasn't touched *anything* yet, its probably the cleanest thing on the planet at that moment.


IIRC, it wasn't specifically emphasizing washing before delivery; more the idea that say, dressing a gangrenous wound, handling corpses in the morgue and then (without a break) delivering a baby might not be a good idea...I do recall the midwives had a much lower mortality rate among their patients and that had something dto do with the aforementioned corpse-handling (which midwives did not engage in)
 
2013-12-01 08:38:24 PM

TuteTibiImperes: Nemo's Brother: whither_apophis: Is he calculating the probabilty of his attempt at immortality offending religious fanatics who might consider it an offront to God and thus making it their mission to kill him?

/sorry, I tried parsing that down
//and I'm against any such action as well...

It's amazing how afraid to die atheists are, all the while reflecting their fear off on an imaginary religious conspiracy.

It makes sense - if you believe that when you die that it's lights out and nothing more, that's pretty scary.  If you believe there's an afterlife, or that you'll be reincarnated and live again, it's substantially less scary.


Scary?  Why?
 
2013-12-01 08:44:11 PM

Mister Peejay: "First you have to know - not think, know - that some day, you will die.  Until you know that, you are useless."


Awesome.

See if we can keep it going before someone calls it out.

"Our fathers were our models for God. If our fathers bailed, what does that tell you about God?"

/remixed some of that speech over a radio head song, so I spotted it immediately.
//couldn't bring myself to read the book though, saw the movie too many times
 
2013-12-01 08:50:57 PM
TedCruz'sCrazyDad:
It reminds me of the story of Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis, who tried to convince doctors in the 1850s to wash their hands prior to delivering babies.

He's trying to convince people, well, other doctors mainly, that's there's these teeny tiny invisible bad things called germs that get into your body and make you sick. Ah? He's trying to get doctors to wash their hands. What is this guy? Crazy? Teeny, tiny, invisible? What do you call it? Uh-uh, germs? Huh? What? Now, cut to the 20th century. Last week, as a matter of fact, before I got dragged into this hellhole. I go in to order a burger in this fast food joint, and the guy drops it on the floor. Jim, he picks it up, he wipes it off, he hands it to me like it's all OK. "What about the germs?" I say. He says, "I don't believe in germs. Germs is just a plot they made up so they can sell you disinfectants and soaps." Now he's crazy, right? See?
 
2013-12-01 08:57:44 PM

omeganuepsilon: Mister Peejay: "First you have to know - not think, know - that some day, you will die.  Until you know that, you are useless."

Awesome.

See if we can keep it going before someone calls it out.

"Our fathers were our models for God. If our fathers bailed, what does that tell you about God?"


"Listen!  You can run water over your hand and make it worse or - look at me! - or you can pour vinegar on it to neutralize the burn."

(no, that's not symbolic at all)

/made a version of Slayer's Disciple that started with that scene, starting with the "Our fathers..." speech and ending with him shouting "Listen!".  Then the guitars started.
/then that computer took an arrow to the knee
 
2013-12-01 08:59:44 PM

TuteTibiImperes: Well, sure, that's part of it, but as of yet it's not proven one way or the other.


I have a 24 inch penis.

Now, you're probably assuming that's a fiction, despite any proof one way or the other.  That's what atheists do with what, for all intents and purposes, are fabricated claims.

It's not that they're not proven false so they're possible, there's no rational process in which "religion"(as a vague stand-in term) would come about.

It's all based on either lies or wishful thinking because it comforts some people.  Same way deluded people think they're more attractive and "good" than they actually are.

There is objective reasoning that says it's all fictional.  People lie all the time to gain power, even if starts out as a white lie to comfort others.  That is not simply possible, but distinctly possible to the point of making it a very likely explanation.

Because "god", or because "soul", is not a revelation, it's a leap into the irrational.  There is literally no reason to believe.

Emotion?  Can't trust those, influenced, possibly made whole-cloth by hormones and other chemicals.

Unexplained phenomena?  To you, maybe, for most things you can think of, someone elsewhere can explain, if not in detail, in concepts that are well supported by science.

So many people treat religion as if we should believe, that it's the default stance, that they're aborting logic and reason right from the start.

Sure, every other religion was started / propagated by uneducated liars with ill intent, but mine is pure.

Poppycock.
 
2013-12-01 09:12:46 PM

Mister Peejay: "Listen!".  Then the guitars started.


Heh, I used "Slide" right before the song really kicked in(had a long mellow intro).

Only part that wasn't "the speech", or at least didn't fit into the speech.  There was a lot of sermon-esq content throughout the movie, and it's been so long now...

CSB, i wrote a short story years before I'd ever heard about it with a similar "twist".  (had an artsy group of friends).
One of them got so confused we all had to sit down and explain it.

Self improvement is masturbation, now self destruction...
/not speech, but a favorite

/on my way to bed, may pick up with a quote in the morning
//pardon any misquotes, going on memory alone
 
2013-12-01 09:32:47 PM

Relatively Obscure: Calmamity: My life isn't shiatty, and I don't hate myself, but living forever sounds awful.

I'll take whatever you don't wanna use.  I'd be quite happy with being able to pick whenever I felt like checking out.


I'll give you everything from age 88 on. You get to sit in a chair and suck your teeth forever. Lucky you.
 
2013-12-01 09:34:08 PM
Regardless of how kooky his theories are, to me the dude has something special, and its imagination and vision.

Could it be out of the realm of possibility? We may never know, but thats kind of the draw for me. Like science fiction that just teeters on possibility.

Anyway, I think he's cool.
 
2013-12-01 09:49:59 PM

Mister Peejay: TedCruz'sCrazyDad:
It reminds me of the story of Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis, who tried to convince doctors in the 1850s to wash their hands prior to delivering babies.

He's trying to convince people, well, other doctors mainly, that's there's these teeny tiny invisible bad things called germs that get into your body and make you sick. Ah? He's trying to get doctors to wash their hands. What is this guy? Crazy? Teeny, tiny, invisible? What do you call it? Uh-uh, germs? Huh? What? Now, cut to the 20th century. Last week, as a matter of fact, before I got dragged into this hellhole. I go in to order a burger in this fast food joint, and the guy drops it on the floor. Jim, he picks it up, he wipes it off, he hands it to me like it's all OK. "What about the germs?" I say. He says, "I don't believe in germs. Germs is just a plot they made up so they can sell you disinfectants and soaps." Now he's crazy, right? See?




A more modern example would be the CEOs of Borders and Barnes & Noble wondering what all the excitement was about this new Information Super Highway and who that crazy guy Jeff Bezos is.
 
KIA
2013-12-01 09:57:21 PM
If Google can map the hundreds of thousands of miles of roads, rails, rivers and features of the United States and the world, they certainly have the capacity to fully map and access the map of a particular body.  Having that map is the first step to being able to find areas that need repair and to deploy precisely tailored repairs.

This is not only feasible, it is likely to occur.  I, for one, intend to be at the front of the line.
 
2013-12-01 10:00:00 PM
I'm thinking that not dieing will be the hardest part.
 
2013-12-01 10:03:14 PM
Well, we know who's going to be running post-apocalyptic Las Vegas.
 
2013-12-01 10:18:14 PM
"We are the Borg. Existence, as you know it, is over. We will add your biological and technological distinctiveness to our own. Resistance is futile."
 
2013-12-01 10:28:23 PM
"What a man believes upon grossly insufficient evidence is an index to his desires-desires of which he himself is often unconscious. If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance with his instincts, he will accept it even on the slenderest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way..." - Bertrand Russell
 
2013-12-01 10:33:47 PM
Oh bloody hell this guy again!?

/he's a freaking quack...
 
2013-12-01 10:37:35 PM
Dear Ray Kurzweil,

If the Singularity were real, it would have already happened sometime in the past.  Moore's Law is no longer holding firm.  It's not clear what constitutes advancement and what's just PR aymore.  Even supercomputers are bumping up against limits.

B-b-but something will come along and speed everything up, right?  It's happened before, right?  Sure has.  But it looks like this time, even if the technology's there, it will arrive too late to meet Moore's Law.  And it doesn't sound like it's going to get easier after that.

Enjoy growing old and dying.  It happens to us all.
 
2013-12-01 10:55:02 PM
I would love to live forever, given that I either A)get a GitS style cyber brain/body or B)have my aging suspended/reversed. It would be a hellish world those first 100 years or so after immortality hits though. We'd have to grow up as a species real farking quick.
 
2013-12-01 10:58:43 PM

fluffy2097: [images.moviepostershop.com image 270x366]
Joseph Weizenbaum (8 January 1923 - 5 March 2008) was a was a German and American computer scientist and a professor emeritus at MIT. He explains in great detail why it is that you would never want to put your soul into anything resembling current technology or an evolutionary offshoot thereof. In 1966 he programed ELIZA, an "AI therapist".  He was horrified when people in the lab started treating it as a real psychotherapist. Why? When ELIZA says "I understand" It's a lie. It cannot understand. It has no mind. It's a script attached to a database.

The movie is farking brilliant. You start out thinking hes a dottering old man who has no idea what he's talking about, then goes on to show you he knows exactly what he is talking about.

There is no intelligence behind ANY AI today. Deep blue might be able to beat Gary Kasparov in chess, but it cannot play tic tac toe.

Self driving cars cannot fly aircraft.

Siri understands language, but cannot comprehend it. Voice to text still cannot put grammar into your sentences. You have to tell it where to place punctuation. If you tell Siri you are sad, you get a canned response from a programmer at Apple, put there to make the program feel more human.

Show me an AI that can be creative. Show me an AI that doesn't need to be reset on a regular basis. Show me hardware that can contain a soul.

Show me a computer that doesn't need critical updates. Show me an OS that's never royally farked someones shiat up because of a critical update. Show me a computer that can find a bug in itself, and repair that code. That can improve upon itself without a programmer ticking away at a keyboard behind the scenes. Show me a wireless network that doesn't have a ratsnest of cables somewhere.

Show me a computer that thinks, and maybe we will have begun to take our first steps infantile towards the singularity.

A simple man machine interface is all this fool is talking about when he thinks of the si ...


Watching on HULU now.. fascinating!
 
2013-12-01 11:09:19 PM

andrewagill: Dear Ray Kurzweil,

If the Singularity were real, it would have already happened sometime in the past.  Moore's Law is no longer holding firm.  It's not clear what constitutes advancement and what's just PR aymore.  Even supercomputers are bumping up against limits.

B-b-but something will come along and speed everything up, right?  It's happened before, right?  Sure has.  But it looks like this time, even if the technology's there, it will arrive too late to meet Moore's Law.  And it doesn't sound like it's going to get easier after that.

Enjoy growing old and dying.  It happens to us all.


Everything that can be invented already has, right?
 
2013-12-01 11:17:36 PM

omeganuepsilon: It makes sense - if you believe that when you die that it's lights out and nothing more, that's pretty scary. If you believe there's an afterlife, or that you'll be reincarnated and live again, it's substantially less scary.

Scary? Why?


It's not like anyone would simply want to torture you forever because you wore a cotton-wool blend shirt or something.
 
2013-12-01 11:22:07 PM
For the universe to have balance this must happen to him.

www.smbc-comics.com
 
2013-12-01 11:22:45 PM
Most people think the path to immortality is believing a religious book really really hard and doing what it says.  In relative comparison this man comes out way ahead.
 
2013-12-01 11:23:00 PM

mrlewish: Fallacy:  Appeal to Authority


It's an opinion, not an argument.
 
2013-12-01 11:31:12 PM
TFA: Kurzweil says we're just approaching what he calls "the knee of the curve." That's the point at which an exponential function starts to rocket upward.

Are you shiatting me?  The KNEE of the CURVE?  He does realize that he's talking about exponential growth, correct?  There's no knee there, man.  Here, let me draw you a picture.  Here is a graph of y=2x from x=0 to x=15 and y=0 to y=10000.  As you can see, the knee of the curve is clearly somewhere between 8 and 12:

i158.photobucket.com

Now here's the same function, but with y from 0 to 100.  As you can clearly see, the knee of the curve is somewhere between 2 and 6:

i158.photobucket.com
  Funny thing about exponential curves: They don't have minima or maxima.  They don't have inflection points.  Their integrals and derivatives are in fact exponential functions themselves.  If you look at a graph, there will always appear to be a section where there is a giant plateau, but if you zoom in on that point, it will become clear that there never was a plateau, just our perception based on the later expansion.  If you're seeing a plateau, you're not in an exponential curve.

There *are* curves with knees, but exponential curves are not them.  For example, here's a graph of a logistic curve y=(1+2-x)-1.  Whether you graph it with y from 0 to 2 or from 0 to 1, the knee appears to be in the same place, somewhere between 2 and 4.

i158.photobucket.com
i158.photobucket.com


Another funny thing about logistic curves like this: they can resemble exponential curves for a while:

i158.photobucket.com


until they reach some limiting factor, and then they flatline as they approach their maximum value.
 
2013-12-01 11:39:06 PM

the801: hands up who's never heard of Ray Kurzweil? just curious.

TFA missed the bit where in a bid to slow aging and function at peak capacity he takes 150 supplements a day, which he employs an assistant to manage. he is looking pretty good for 65.


\0

i once pissed him off by asking him what he had for breakfast. I just needed him to talk to get a level.

/csb
 
2013-12-01 11:51:51 PM
static2.wikia.nocookie.net

/pfft, amateur
 
2013-12-01 11:53:34 PM
"Come on, you sons of biatches, do you want to live forever?"

Sergeant Major Daniel Daly, USMC
 
2013-12-02 12:05:28 AM

HempHead: whither_apophis: Is he calculating the probabilty of his attempt at immortality offending religious fanatics who might consider it an offront to God and thus making it their mission to kill him?

/sorry, I tried parsing that down
//and I'm against any such action as well...

Methuselah lived 969 years.

[principlesforlifeministries.files.wordpress.com image 850x637]


I always imagined there was a misquote and that "years" was the equivalent of "moons" and were actually months not full Earth revolutions and that 969 comes out to a nice 80.+ years. Which makes a lot more sense,,,
 
2013-12-02 12:14:04 AM
And with strange aeons even death may die.
 
2013-12-02 12:38:33 AM

ShadowWolf: HempHead: whither_apophis: Is he calculating the probabilty of his attempt at immortality offending religious fanatics who might consider it an offront to God and thus making it their mission to kill him?

/sorry, I tried parsing that down
//and I'm against any such action as well...

Methuselah lived 969 years.

[principlesforlifeministries.files.wordpress.com image 850x637]

I always imagined there was a misquote and that "years" was the equivalent of "moons" and were actually months not full Earth revolutions and that 969 comes out to a nice 80.+ years. Which makes a lot more sense,,,


Ah, but you go from two people to a whole bunch in those first few thousand years. It's a silly story, and doubly silly if you try to have Noah repopulate the earth with a family of about 12. Don't think about it too hard, it's a popcorn movie.
 
2013-12-02 01:08:17 AM

omeganuepsilon: TuteTibiImperes: Well, sure, that's part of it, but as of yet it's not proven one way or the other.

I have a 24 inch penis.

Now, you're probably assuming that's a fiction, despite any proof one way or the other.  That's what atheists do with what, for all intents and purposes, are fabricated claims.

It's not that they're not proven false so they're possible, there's no rational process in which "religion"(as a vague stand-in term) would come about.

It's all based on either lies or wishful thinking because it comforts some people.  Same way deluded people think they're more attractive and "good" than they actually are.

There is objective reasoning that says it's all fictional.  People lie all the time to gain power, even if starts out as a white lie to comfort others.  That is not simply possible, but distinctly possible to the point of making it a very likely explanation.

Because "god", or because "soul", is not a revelation, it's a leap into the irrational.  There is literally no reason to believe.

Emotion?  Can't trust those, influenced, possibly made whole-cloth by hormones and other chemicals.

Unexplained phenomena?  To you, maybe, for most things you can think of, someone elsewhere can explain, if not in detail, in concepts that are well supported by science.

So many people treat religion as if we should believe, that it's the default stance, that they're aborting logic and reason right from the start.

Sure, every other religion was started / propagated by uneducated liars with ill intent, but mine is pure.

Poppycock.


It's possible to have this discussion without bringing religion into it.

The question is really, is the entirety of consciousness explainable through neural function?  If you designed a neural net and copied the exact brain pattern of a person into that net, would that create a copy of the other person exactly?  If not, what other factors make a person a  person?

That's not a question of religion, that's a question of science.  Just because we haven't determined how to answer that question yet doesn't make it "hokey-pokey religion".  When people say you haven't proved that there isn't a soul, we take that to mean that they're saying that there is a soul and thus their religion is correct.  Our own biases taint the question.

The fact is we don't know the answer to the question either way.  So we should try to find out.  Research in this area can help lead to a definitive answer in the future.  If we eventually manage to create a functioning neural web and it creates an exact copy of the person's personality and consciousness, then we will have answered that question.  If we create a functioning neural web and it  doesn't then we also have evidence to show that neural function is not the sole determining factor and we can then make educated and rational inferences as to what else could lead to it.

Long story short, posing the question of "what makes a person a person" does not necessarily make one a religious fanatic.
 
2013-12-02 01:17:16 AM
hey guys...what's going on in this thread?
Oh...Immortality...yeah...got it covered.
no longer than 25 years from now...book it! done.!
/serious
 
2013-12-02 01:21:10 AM
except for for Q.A.
he won't get the treatment.
 
2013-12-02 01:40:29 AM
I can make a 100% solid prediction here, he will die, as will the rest of us. I guess he never read Hamlet. Didn't need a math degree either to figure that out. Does he look good for 65? Meh, I've seen much worse, but I've also seen people that don't obsess over it that look the same.
 
2013-12-02 01:43:08 AM

Fark_Guy_Rob: When it comes to computer based artificial intelligence and the like; unless you *can* do it already, you can't.


I dunno. It seems to me that if there is no soul, if consciousness is just the result of a biological machine clicking and whirring, it should be possible to one day synthesize it.
 
2013-12-02 01:47:40 AM

andrewagill: TFA: Kurzweil says we're just approaching what he calls "the knee of the curve." That's the point at which an exponential function starts to rocket upward.

Are you shiatting me?  The KNEE of the CURVE?  He does realize that he's talking about exponential growth, correct?  There's no knee there, man.  Here, let me draw you a picture.  Here is a graph of y=2x from x=0 to x=15 and y=0 to y=10000.  As you can see, the knee of the curve is clearly somewhere between 8 and 12:

[i158.photobucket.com image 506x486]

Now here's the same function, but with y from 0 to 100.  As you can clearly see, the knee of the curve is somewhere between 2 and 6:

[i158.photobucket.com image 494x486]
  Funny thing about exponential curves: They don't have minima or maxima.  They don't have inflection points.  Their integrals and derivatives are in fact exponential functions themselves.  If you look at a graph, there will always appear to be a section where there is a giant plateau, but if you zoom in on that point, it will become clear that there never was a plateau, just our perception based on the later expansion.  If you're seeing a plateau, you're not in an exponential curve.

There *are* curves with knees, but exponential curves are not them.  For example, here's a graph of a logistic curve y=(1+2-x)-1.  Whether you graph it with y from 0 to 2 or from 0 to 1, the knee appears to be in the same place, somewhere between 2 and 4.

[i158.photobucket.com image 495x486]
[i158.photobucket.com image 495x486]


Another funny thing about logistic curves like this: they can resemble exponential curves for a while:

[i158.photobucket.com image 472x486]


until they reach some limiting factor, and then they flatline as they approach their maximum value.


I was told there would be no math.
 
2013-12-02 01:52:55 AM
There are only two serious problems with the kind of close-enough immortality Kurzweil is talking about.

1) What happens if everybody can have it, and
2) What happens if everybody can't have it.

You can have a happy, stable, peaceful society in which people live to 500, but it requires solving problems a hell of a lot harder than physical immortality. That's why I think Kurzweil is right, and we'll figure out a way to live as ageless 20-year-olds before too long. No species has a greater capacity for self-destruction or irony than humans, and that would pretty much peg the needle on both.
 
2013-12-02 01:57:09 AM

Calmamity: My life isn't shiatty, and I don't hate myself, but living forever sounds awful.


Don't worry.  You won't.
 
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