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(Bleacher Report)   Punts? His team doesn't need no stinkin' punts. Kickoffs? Just onsides, baby   (bleacherreport.com) divider line 125
    More: Cool, onside kick  
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3724 clicks; posted to Sports » on 14 Nov 2013 at 11:54 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-11-14 10:28:24 AM  
So he coaches like a 13 year old playing Madden online?
 
2013-11-14 10:29:01 AM  
No one outside of high school has the balls to try that.........well, maybe Mike Leach, that ole pirate just might.
 
2013-11-14 10:38:10 AM  

Nefarious: So he coaches like a 13 year old playing Madden online?


Heh, that's exactly what I was thinking.

/HAIL MARY ALL THE PLAYS!
 
2013-11-14 11:59:23 AM  
I think he makes a good point and good idea, but if it's 4th and 30 from your own 20, you might want to punt
 
2013-11-14 12:03:46 PM  

Nefarious: So he coaches like a 13 year old playing Madden online?


Yes, actually.  What's funny is that the 13 year olds playing Madden online isn't playing the game based on what NFL coaches do; he plays based on what actually works.  There is a reason that tournaments require you to punt on 4th and long -- they know that going for it works but they want the game to feel more like an actual NFL game.
 
2013-11-14 12:05:43 PM  
if i were an NFL head coach who was going to get fired anyways, i would totally do this
 
2013-11-14 12:06:46 PM  

AdamK: if i were an NFL head coach who was going to get fired anyways, i would totally do this


I guess the Buccaneers have a new strategy!
 
2013-11-14 12:08:08 PM  

AdamK: if i were an NFL head coach who was going to get fired anyways, i would totally do this


May as well.  Use that punter spot for a real player.
 
2013-11-14 12:09:55 PM  
Fark PA
Go Mustangs
 
2013-11-14 12:12:31 PM  
I wrote a paper about this guy for a class 2.5 years ago.  He's completely right.

Honestly, 13 year olds are playing the game "optimally".  They don't have to worry about fans revolting, monday morning media, etc, and they get an infinite number of games to be head coach, so they play a more risk-neutral strategy.  Actual football coaches don't live in that environment so they play a risk-averse strategy and play not to lose instead of playing with the maximum chance of winning.

(I realize I'm grossly oversimplifying the other aspects of video games -- they're tilted towards the human player, you don't really care about injuries, etc)

It's the same reason most football games turn out to be 3 quarters of teams standing around waiting for the other team to screw up followed by a) grandstanding to run the clock if you're ahead, or b) a mad desperate flurry to make plays if you're behind.
 
2013-11-14 12:20:24 PM  
Tuesday Morning Quaterback has been saying this for years.

Just to prove it was no fluke, trailing 17-3 in the fourth quarter, fourth-and-5 on the Pittsburgh 36, Bills coach Doug Marrone sent in the punt unit. Punting in opposition territory down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter! Perhaps there is a reason the Bills have eight consecutive losing seasons and are working on the ninth. It took Pittsburgh just four snaps to pass the spot where the ball would have been had Buffalo gone and failed. Bills coaches followed the Single Worst Play of the Season So Far with the worst Preposterous Punt of 2013.

Emphasis mine, but when I was paying attention to the game and I saw that punt come up on the ESPN gamecast, I wrote "game over" in my book.

His rules for punting from 2007:

-Inside your own 20, punt.
-From your 21 to 35, go for it on fourth-and-2 or less.
-From your 36 to midfield, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.
-From the opposition 49 to opposition 30, go for it on fourth-and-4 or less.
-From the opposition 29 to opposition 3, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.
-From the opposition 2 or 1, go for it.
-Exception: inside the opponent's 25, attempt a field goal if it's the fourth quarter and a field goal causes a tie or gives you the lead
 
2013-11-14 12:20:52 PM  
Gregg Easterbrook is delighted that subby has found more spank material for him.
 
2013-11-14 12:24:06 PM  

Pentaxian: Gregg Easterbrook is delighted that subby has found more spank material for him.


Gregg Easterbrook has been following this guy and writing about him for years.
 
2013-11-14 12:29:31 PM  

Misch: Tuesday Morning Quaterback has been saying this for years.

Just to prove it was no fluke, trailing 17-3 in the fourth quarter, fourth-and-5 on the Pittsburgh 36, Bills coach Doug Marrone sent in the punt unit. Punting in opposition territory down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter! Perhaps there is a reason the Bills have eight consecutive losing seasons and are working on the ninth. It took Pittsburgh just four snaps to pass the spot where the ball would have been had Buffalo gone and failed. Bills coaches followed the Single Worst Play of the Season So Far with the worst Preposterous Punt of 2013.

Emphasis mine, but when I was paying attention to the game and I saw that punt come up on the ESPN gamecast, I wrote "game over" in my book.

His rules for punting from 2007:

-Inside your own 20, punt.
-From your 21 to 35, go for it on fourth-and-2 or less.
-From your 36 to midfield, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.
-From the opposition 49 to opposition 30, go for it on fourth-and-4 or less.
-From the opposition 29 to opposition 3, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.
-From the opposition 2 or 1, go for it.
-Exception: inside the opponent's 25, attempt a field goal if it's the fourth quarter and a field goal causes a tie or gives you the lead


Statistical analysis is meaningless.  Football isn't a law of large numbers type of sport.  You have 16 games and you need to win 9-10 of them to make the playoffs.  Plus there are too many factors that can affect a situation to lump the statistics of every 4th and 3 into an analysis.

Then to compare what a highschool coach is doing vs an NFL team is idiotic. This guy is successful most likely because his athletes are better than his competition, not because he's a statistical guru.
 
2013-11-14 12:33:01 PM  
The ideas seem revolutionary, but they're actually based on some pretty widely accepted principles.   Mainly, when two seemingly equal teams square off, "turnovers" are the biggest factors in determining games.   Everyone associates "turnovers" as simply fumbles or interceptions, but it could be anything where one team gives possession over to another team.   That's essentially what a punt or a kickoff is.    I never understood why coaches are eager to voluntarily hand over possession to another in exchange for a handful of net yards in field position.  I think by now everyone who's interested in such things largely accepts that accumulative total yards doesn't have the best correlation with win percentage.


 I've always been intrigued with the idea of coaches picking the brains of high level Madden players.   You basically have really, really smart young minds who are running thousands of hours of game simulations.   Any coach should want to pick their brains and see what they're using that works for them.     Let's face it, most NFL and high level college game management is utterly atrocious.

I once heard  Bill Belichick say if he decided to retire from coachng the NFL he might just coach a Div III or NCIA college team for just the love of coaching with no pressure or scrutiny and a more level playing field of talent.   He could use it as a sandbox or laboratory to test unconventional game management methods.
 
2013-11-14 12:35:36 PM  
An NFL coach willing to go for it on more 4th downs would be a successful coach.
 
2013-11-14 12:36:25 PM  

MugzyBrown: Misch: Tuesday Morning Quaterback has been saying this for years.

Just to prove it was no fluke, trailing 17-3 in the fourth quarter, fourth-and-5 on the Pittsburgh 36, Bills coach Doug Marrone sent in the punt unit. Punting in opposition territory down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter! Perhaps there is a reason the Bills have eight consecutive losing seasons and are working on the ninth. It took Pittsburgh just four snaps to pass the spot where the ball would have been had Buffalo gone and failed. Bills coaches followed the Single Worst Play of the Season So Far with the worst Preposterous Punt of 2013.

Emphasis mine, but when I was paying attention to the game and I saw that punt come up on the ESPN gamecast, I wrote "game over" in my book.

His rules for punting from 2007:

-Inside your own 20, punt.
-From your 21 to 35, go for it on fourth-and-2 or less.
-From your 36 to midfield, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.
-From the opposition 49 to opposition 30, go for it on fourth-and-4 or less.
-From the opposition 29 to opposition 3, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.
-From the opposition 2 or 1, go for it.
-Exception: inside the opponent's 25, attempt a field goal if it's the fourth quarter and a field goal causes a tie or gives you the lead

Statistical analysis is meaningless.  Football isn't a law of large numbers type of sport.  You have 16 games and you need to win 9-10 of them to make the playoffs.  Plus there are too many factors that can affect a situation to lump the statistics of every 4th and 3 into an analysis.

Then to compare what a highschool coach is doing vs an NFL team is idiotic. This guy is successful most likely because his athletes are better than his competition, not because he's a statistical guru.


img.gawkerassets.com
 
2013-11-14 12:36:34 PM  

InmanRoshi: I've always been intrigued with the idea of coaches picking the brains of high level Madden players.


Madden is a program.  People who play Madden a lot know that certain specific plays and actions can cause computer-controlled players to behave in specific ways.  They know if they run the play enough times it will work.  The same is not true in real life.

I stopped playing madden online years ago because people would always just throw bombs, and pretty much 1 in 4 would be complete no matter the defense I picked.
 
2013-11-14 12:37:21 PM  
i only onsides kick to start the second half of the superbowl, baby!
 
2013-11-14 12:38:14 PM  
MugzyBrown:

Then to compare what a highschool coach is doing vs an NFL team is idiotic. This guy is successful most likely because his athletes are better than his competition, not because he's a statistical guru.

Are they?  What percentage of his players go on to receive football scholarships compared to the rest of the championship winning Arkansas programs?
 
2013-11-14 12:42:34 PM  

InmanRoshi: Mainly, when two seemingly equal teams square off, "turnovers" are the biggest factors in determining games. Everyone associates "turnovers" as simply fumbles or interceptions, but it could be anything where one team gives possession over to another team. That's essentially what a punt or a kickoff is. I never understood why coaches are eager to voluntarily hand over possession to another in exchange for a handful of net yards in field position.


Except that if you define turnover that way, they're no longer statistically significant in determining the winners of games.  It becomes a lot more random.  Yes, turnovers - the traditional definition - matter a lot.  But you can't just change the definition to something that adds 2 to 4x more data elements and say the relationship holds.

All of that said - it is statistically correct to say that NFL coaches play far more risk adverse than they do.  Fourth and 3 or less should be a "go for it" play on more than 70% of the field.  In addition, the playbook should more open in those situations, not limited to short yardage power run plays only.
 
2013-11-14 12:44:18 PM  

Khellendros: it is statistically correct to say that NFL coaches play far more risk adverse than they do.


Correction - play more risk adverse than they should.
 
2013-11-14 12:44:49 PM  

MugzyBrown: This guy is successful most likely because his athletes are better than his competition, not because he's a statistical guru.


Actually, he coaches a small prep school and wins titles over the other powerhouse programs in the state who often have 5 times the student body he works with.
 
2013-11-14 12:55:01 PM  
MugzyBrown: InmanRoshi: I've always been intrigued with the idea of coaches picking the brains of high level Madden players.

Madden is a program.  People who play Madden a lot know that certain specific plays and actions can cause computer-controlled players to behave in specific ways.  They know if they run the play enough times it will work.  The same is not true in real life.



  I'm focusing on things like like clock management, there isn't one bit of difference between how the programmed simulation is played and the actual game on the field is played.   The rules are exactly the same.   By rule certain actions stop the clock and other actions keep the clock running.    Largely NFL coaches are beyond horrible when it comes to clock management because they've established no methodology and they just "go with their gut", and their guts are often laughably bad.
 
2013-11-14 12:56:29 PM  

MugzyBrown: InmanRoshi: I've always been intrigued with the idea of coaches picking the brains of high level Madden players.

Madden is a program.  People who play Madden a lot know that certain specific plays and actions can cause computer-controlled players to behave in specific ways.  They know if they run the play enough times it will work.  The same is not true in real life.

I stopped playing madden online years ago because people would always just throw bombs, and pretty much 1 in 4 would be complete no matter the defense I picked.


And they would choose a fast QB so they would run it if their guy wasn't open.  My go-to was always dollar formation, blitz a cornerback from each side.  I think it was called DB Dogs.  Tough to run to the outside on, you've got a decent pass defense and hopefully one of the DBs forces the QB to throw it fast. The weakness was running against it but the people who used the stupid quick tricks weren't willing to grind it out.
 
2013-11-14 01:02:44 PM  

Misch: Tuesday Morning Quaterback has been saying this for years.

Just to prove it was no fluke, trailing 17-3 in the fourth quarter, fourth-and-5 on the Pittsburgh 36, Bills coach Doug Marrone sent in the punt unit. Punting in opposition territory down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter! Perhaps there is a reason the Bills have eight consecutive losing seasons and are working on the ninth. It took Pittsburgh just four snaps to pass the spot where the ball would have been had Buffalo gone and failed. Bills coaches followed the Single Worst Play of the Season So Far with the worst Preposterous Punt of 2013.

Emphasis mine, but when I was paying attention to the game and I saw that punt come up on the ESPN gamecast, I wrote "game over" in my book.

His rules for punting from 2007:

-Inside your own 20, punt.
-From your 21 to 35, go for it on fourth-and-2 or less.
-From your 36 to midfield, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.
-From the opposition 49 to opposition 30, go for it on fourth-and-4 or less.
-From the opposition 29 to opposition 3, go for it on fourth-and-3 or less.
-From the opposition 2 or 1, go for it.
-Exception: inside the opponent's 25, attempt a field goal if it's the fourth quarter and a field goal causes a tie or gives you the lead


TMQ has changed the way I now watch football
 
2013-11-14 01:04:14 PM  
You game plan for 4 plays to a 1st down...it would change the dynamic of things to be sure.  Instead of needing 3.3 yards a play, you would need 2.5 per play.  Hell, even Willis McGahee is averaging 2.9 per carry.

But yea, play not to lose is how coaches keep jobs better.  If one coach did this in the NFL, they would change the rules to prevent it.  I guarantee it.
 
2013-11-14 01:08:40 PM  

asmodeus224: You game plan for 4 plays to a 1st down...it would change the dynamic of things to be sure.  Instead of needing 3.3 yards a play, you would need 2.5 per play.  Hell, even Willis McGahee is averaging 2.9 per carry.

But yea, play not to lose is how coaches keep jobs better.  If one coach did this in the NFL, they would change the rules to prevent it.  I guarantee it.


You don't need 4th down.  The league average is usually between 3.8-4.2 yards per carry.  So using your brilliant strategy, you'll never reach 4th down because you'll get your 10 yards in 3.

I don't know why coaches ever pass.  Idiots using their guts.
 
2013-11-14 01:11:02 PM  

Khellendros: InmanRoshi: Mainly, when two seemingly equal teams square off, "turnovers" are the biggest factors in determining games. Everyone associates "turnovers" as simply fumbles or interceptions, but it could be anything where one team gives possession over to another team. That's essentially what a punt or a kickoff is. I never understood why coaches are eager to voluntarily hand over possession to another in exchange for a handful of net yards in field position.

Except that if you define turnover that way, they're no longer statistically significant in determining the winners of games.  It becomes a lot more random.  Yes, turnovers - the traditional definition - matter a lot.  But you can't just change the definition to something that adds 2 to 4x more data elements and say the relationship holds.

All of that said - it is statistically correct to say that NFL coaches play far more risk adverse than they do.  Fourth and 3 or less should be a "go for it" play on more than 70% of the field.  In addition, the playbook should more open in those situations, not limited to short yardage power run plays only.


Not to mention that if you have that mentality at the start of the sequence of downs, you are less likely to fall into stereotypical traps.  All 4 downs are more open.
 
2013-11-14 01:19:37 PM  
MugzyBrown:
Statistical analysis is meaningless.  Football isn't a law of large numbers type of sport.  You have 16 games and you need to win 9-10 of them to make the playoffs.  Plus there are too many factors that can affect a situation to lump the statistics of every 4th and 3 into an analysis.

Then to compare what a highschool coach is doing vs an NFL team is idiotic. This guy is successful most likely because his athletes are better than his competition, not because he's a statistical guru.


I disagree with this almost 100%.  I'll take statistics.  You have to factor in your own team's ability to execute and your opponents abilities similarly in every phase of the game, but from there it's situational statistics.  The only bad thing is that stats drive what would seem to be unsportsmanlike bullying.  The weaker the opponent, the more likely you are to  take advantage of it and make an unconventional call.  At the level in the article, since his approach is almost 100%, you don't create the appearance of selective bullying.
 
2013-11-14 01:29:10 PM  

machoprogrammer: I think he makes a good point and good idea, but if it's 4th and 30 from your own 20, you might want to punt


It depends. I think his approach works particularly well in high school because the average punter or kicker just can't kick the ball very far. If you watch the video, there difference in the opponent's field position between the regular kickoff and the onside kick was fairly small (17 yards, IIRC). The difference wasn't much greater for punting vs. going for it on fourth down.

As you get into college, and the NFL, the statistics for this approach will get worse just because the kickers are so much better, so the difference in field position is substantially greater. NFL kickers can reliably put kickoffs into the end zone, especially since the kickoff point was moved back up to the 35 yard line. Looking at the 2013 punting stats, there are 32 punters with a season-long of 60 yards or more, and 16 with an average net of 40 or more yards. A 40-yard net when it's fourth and five at your own five-yard line sounds pretty good.

Also, FWIW, blocked punts seem to be much more common in high school and college than the pros.
 
2013-11-14 01:32:54 PM  
1. People hate punts.
2. People hate punts because they're inefficient means of producing points.
3. People hate any version of football that DOESN'T have punts...and criticize it because teams score too much.
 
2013-11-14 01:33:12 PM  

Nana's Vibrator: I disagree with this almost 100%.  I'll take statistics.  You have to factor in your own team's ability to execute and your opponents abilities similarly in every phase of the game, but from there it's situational statistics.  The only bad thing is that stats drive what would seem to be unsportsmanlike bullying.  The weaker the opponent, the more likely you are to  take advantage of it and make an unconventional call.  At the level in the article, since his approach is almost 100%, you don't create the appearance of selective bullying.


How many NFL plays have been run where it's 4th and 3 between your own 30 and 40 yard line in the first quarter of a tied game?

Hint: not enough to make a statistical analysis from it.
 
2013-11-14 01:37:41 PM  

Khellendros: Except that if you define turnover that way, they're no longer statistically significant in determining the winners of games.  It becomes a lot more random.  Yes, turnovers - the traditional definition - matter a lot.  But you can't just change the definition to something that adds 2 to 4x more data elements and say the relationship holds.


Since when have we ever taken into consideration all the differentiating datapoints when determining the impact of a "traditional" turnover?   We just take a big large lump of high variance instances and cram them in a barrel and given them all the generic label of "turnover" to mean whenever a teams hands over possession of the ball to the other team.  We don't differentiate turnovers from where they occurred on the field, even though a turnover at the goalline is obviously more significant than a turnover at the 50 yard line.    An interception thrown on 4th down  is counted the same an interception on 1st down, even though it's no more significant than an incompletion (it's often more beneficial than an incompletion).    Most people still count meaningless interceptions thrown on desperation Hail Mary plays as turnovers.
 
2013-11-14 01:39:30 PM  

MugzyBrown: How many NFL plays have been run where it's 4th and 3 between your own 30 and 40 yard line in the first quarter of a tied game?

Hint: not enough to make a statistical analysis from it.


When you add a whole bunch of irrelevant qualifications of course you make the sample size really small, but we should really leave that practice to homerific baseball announcers.
 
2013-11-14 01:41:06 PM  
My dream situation.
-Outlaw all types of kicking all together.
-No punts, field goals, extra points or kickoffs ever again.
-You have to go for it on 4th down.
-Extend the yardage needed from 10 yards to 15 yards to augement the newly designed offenses that will adjust their play calling to pick up 10 yards a large percentage of the time.
-Forces games to played for maximum points.
-Only 2 points conversions allowed so more variablilty will exist in final scores. (Vegas will love this)
-After scoring the other team gets the ball on the twenty and starts from there.

/Before you say that it would take away from the exciting aspect of returns...it won't matter in the long run. I have never, nor do I know someone who has ever said, "wait a minute I really want to see this punt/kickoff". You remove that aspect and change the emphasis to what the teams do inside of the 20 yard lines and those become much more exciting. Also you get rid of one of the most dangerous plays from the NFL's view. This helps with player safety. It would also remove 2-3 specialist players (long snapper) off of the roster who could be filled with a 3rd QB, 6th WR, 6th DB etc... I would rather watch a game decided by the ability of the team to get to the endzone than a game decided by a team that gets close. It will open up scoring and create more chances for excitement.
 
2013-11-14 01:41:58 PM  
Speaking of needing only 2.5 yards per play....

I wonder how an all-run team would do in the modern NFL. Replace your wide receivers with guys who would be blocking TE's on any other team. Replace your TE's with guys that would be on any other teams offensive line. Replace your QB with a top-5 HB, get another top-10 HB as your second HB and a top-15 as your third and as "Official" QB. Get three great Fullbacks too.... And then just direct-snap to the half-backs and run the crap out of the ball.

One good thing about this plan is that you could save a lot of money on the TE's and OL because blocking-only TE's are cheaper than ones that do everything, and there are a lot of Offensive Linemen that barely stay in the league because they can run-block well but can't pass-block at all. You can pick those guys up for league minimum and save a ton of $$ to spend on defense and top-flight HB's.

Teams would know the run is coming on every play, but because they have to play the rest of the league each week their defenses won't have the personnel to stop it for very long.

It will never happen, but like what this coach is doing it isn't because it wouldn't work, it is because nobody has the balls to actually try it.
 
2013-11-14 01:43:31 PM  

you have pee hands: MugzyBrown: How many NFL plays have been run where it's 4th and 3 between your own 30 and 40 yard line in the first quarter of a tied game?

Hint: not enough to make a statistical analysis from it.

When you add a whole bunch of irrelevant qualifications of course you make the sample size really small, but we should really leave that practice to homerific baseball announcers.


But Mike Trout has the highest WAR of any player when playing an East Coast opponent on a prime numbered day when Saturn is in retrograde. DON'T ARGUE WITH THE STATS.
 
2013-11-14 01:43:35 PM  

MugzyBrown: I don't know why coaches ever pass.


"Three things can happen when you pass.  And two of them are bad."  --Woody Hayes
 
2013-11-14 01:44:12 PM  

InmanRoshi: The ideas seem revolutionary, but they're actually based on some pretty widely accepted principles.   Mainly, when two seemingly equal teams square off, "turnovers" are the biggest factors in determining games.   Everyone associates "turnovers" as simply fumbles or interceptions, but it could be anything where one team gives possession over to another team.   That's essentially what a punt or a kickoff is.    I never understood why coaches are eager to voluntarily hand over possession to another in exchange for a handful of net yards in field position.  I think by now everyone who's interested in such things largely accepts that accumulative total yards doesn't have the best correlation with win percentage.


just a theory, but making the opposing offense march all the way down the field likely gives your defense more time to get in sync... should there be limited space and the opposing offense takes advantage quickly i wouldn't be shocked if the likelyhood of scoring was much higher... should the opposing offense make mistakes tho - then anything is possible

i could be totally wrong tho
 
2013-11-14 01:45:13 PM  

you have pee hands: When you add a whole bunch of irrelevant qualifications of course you make the sample size really small, but we should really leave that practice to homerific baseball announcers.


But that's what football is.  You can't compare all 4th and 3 plays and their success rates or all plays and their average yards.

Every situation is quite unique.  The stresses on a team in their own end going for it on 4th are different than the stresses going for it on the other team's 40.

The stresses in the 4th quarter of a blowout are different than the 1st quarter of a tight game.
 
2013-11-14 01:46:02 PM  
I doubt this strategy would work in College or NFL. Seems like at that level they'd find out ways to defend against the onside kick.
 
2013-11-14 01:47:02 PM  

balfourk: I have never, nor do I know someone who has ever said, "wait a minute I really want to see this punt/kickoff".


You know how I know your team doesn't have a Devin Hester type?
 
2013-11-14 01:49:10 PM  

MugzyBrown: You have 16 games and you need to win 9-10 of them to make the playoffs.


NFC East laughs at your beliefs.
 
2013-11-14 01:49:38 PM  

basemetal: No one outside of high school has the balls to try that.........well, maybe Mike Leach, that ole pirate just might.


  You would need a stubborn Mike Leach type of coach who truly doesn't give a crap about following convention or taking media/fan criticism, but more importantly you would some eccentric billionaire owner who wouldn't give a crap about a fanbase crying that football isn't being played the way they played it when they scored 4 TDs in the City Championship for Polk High.   Shahid Kahn of the Jaguars might be the closest thing we have.   For one, he's a former engineer who has a background in math and science as opposed to the sales/marketing/inherited team from daddy background most  NFL owners have.   But most importantly,  he owns the Jags so why the fark not?   What's the worse that can happen?  You finish 2-14?
 
2013-11-14 01:54:43 PM  
If you win and didn;t cheat, it's a great plan. Period.
 
2013-11-14 01:56:14 PM  

MugzyBrown: Nana's Vibrator: I disagree with this almost 100%.  I'll take statistics.  You have to factor in your own team's ability to execute and your opponents abilities similarly in every phase of the game, but from there it's situational statistics.  The only bad thing is that stats drive what would seem to be unsportsmanlike bullying.  The weaker the opponent, the more likely you are to  take advantage of it and make an unconventional call.  At the level in the article, since his approach is almost 100%, you don't create the appearance of selective bullying.

How many NFL plays have been run where it's 4th and 3 between your own 30 and 40 yard line in the first quarter of a tied game?

Hint: not enough to make a statistical analysis from it.


I'll guess there have been thousands of plays that have been run on 4th and 3 in the 1st quarter from between the 30 and 40.

But first quarter of a tied game is almost completely irrelevant, espercially considering it's the first quarter.  The question is A) how likely are you to convert 4th and 3 from your field position while B) factoring how likely your opponent is to score if 1) you fail or 2) you punt - with subfactors regarding the 2a) likelihood of your special teams creating superior (or inferior) field position and even 2b) the likelihood of your defense creating a turnover or score.
And that's only a portion of it.  Trust me, football is a multibillion dollar industry.  In a good organization, the amount of available detail in situational game planning every single week is immense.  By Sunday morning, the offensive coordinator should have a tool that not only has that 4th and 3 at the 30/40 decision, he should already have at least one, if not a few plays selected for that situation.
 
2013-11-14 01:56:50 PM  

balfourk: I have never, nor do I know someone who has ever said, "wait a minute I really want to see this punt/kickoff".


Except for all of those Monday morning highlights from kick returns...

Prior to the 2011 rule change, I think they averaged almost 2 TD returns per week, now I think its closer to 1 per week, but that isn't completely insignificant.  AND, c'mon, they're fun to watch.
 
2013-11-14 02:01:44 PM  

MugzyBrown: But that's what football is. You can't compare all 4th and 3 plays and their success rates or all plays and their average yards.


There are differences, but "between your own 30 and 40 in a tied game in the first quarter" is way overly specific.  A tied game is a tied game until you're down to an amount of time where you might realistically be able to have the final possession.  Your decision on punting from your own 10 or the opposing 40 might be different but the types of plays you can run if you decide to go for it aren't unless you're backed up so far back your QB can't take a deep drop or close enough to scoring that deep routes don't have space to develop.
 
2013-11-14 02:04:15 PM  

you have pee hands: MugzyBrown: But that's what football is. You can't compare all 4th and 3 plays and their success rates or all plays and their average yards.

There are differences, but "between your own 30 and 40 in a tied game in the first quarter" is way overly specific.  A tied game is a tied game until you're down to an amount of time where you might realistically be able to have the final possession.  Your decision on punting from your own 10 or the opposing 40 might be different but the types of plays you can run if you decide to go for it aren't unless you're backed up so far back your QB can't take a deep drop or close enough to scoring that deep routes don't have space to develop.


"tied" is irrelevant, too.
How many points can you expect your opponents to score in the remaining time left?
How many points can you expect your own team to score in the remaining time left?
How do you minimize one and maximize the other?
 
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