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(Guardian)   Valuing a company at 34 times revenue is just good common sense, especially when it's never turned a profit   (theguardian.com) divider line 85
    More: Obvious, IPO, revenues, stock markets, restricted stock  
•       •       •

3418 clicks; posted to Business » on 07 Nov 2013 at 1:33 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



85 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2013-11-07 11:18:34 PM  

Big Ramifications: Smeggy Smurf: AeAe: skozlaw: van1ty: It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price

And Cisco, an established company with quarterly dividends, is up more than 30% over the same period with far less volatility. GE is up 40% over the same period, again, much more stable and also with good dividends.

What's your point? "It went up" doesn't really mean a whole lot in investing.

What's YOUR point?  It's up 25%.  By any metric that's a great return.

Sucks to be your investments.  My shares of Ruger are up slightly over 60%

//can't go wrong betting on violence when it comes to humans
~

From here it reads like skozlaw's point [and Smeggy Smurf's point] is that they SCOFF at an NYSE beta-smashing return of 25%, and that there were better stocks you could have picked, and that they have the 1337 investing skillz0rz to pick such stocks.

[i44.tinypic.com image 567x353]

~

Erm, skozlaw also pointed out the stability and dividend history of the other stocks. And I've got no idea what the NYSE beta was for that period. So I disqualify myself from this thread.
 
2013-11-07 11:29:55 PM  
I have tried and tried to make Twitter work for me. It's not great for sharing things with followers because fark 140 characters. It's not great for following people you're interested in because almost everyone retweets almost everything. It's not great for breaking news. It's not great for disseminating information. It's the worst echo chamber inside the Internet's echo chamber.

Do they even have revenue? Are they an ad platform? The few times I've used Twitter I don't recall seeing any ads, either on mobile or on the desktop.

So, much like Warren Buffett didn't invest in dotcoms in the late nineties because he didn't understand them...I shall not be investing in Twitter.
 
2013-11-07 11:32:56 PM  

van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48

Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.


Those people who bought Facebook at over $100 a share sure got hosed.
 
2013-11-07 11:36:20 PM  

AeAe: Big Ramifications: Smeggy Smurf: AeAe: skozlaw: van1ty: It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price

And Cisco, an established company with quarterly dividends, is up more than 30% over the same period with far less volatility. GE is up 40% over the same period, again, much more stable and also with good dividends.

What's your point? "It went up" doesn't really mean a whole lot in investing.

What's YOUR point?  It's up 25%.  By any metric that's a great return.

Sucks to be your investments.  My shares of Ruger are up slightly over 60%

//can't go wrong betting on violence when it comes to humans
~

From here it reads like skozlaw's point [and Smeggy Smurf's point] is that they SCOFF at an NYSE beta-smashing return of 25%, and that there were better stocks you could have picked, and that they have the 1337 investing skillz0rz to pick such stocks.

[i44.tinypic.com image 567x353]

Well, duh.. 30% is better and 60% is even better.. but you can't shiat on 25%...

I lucked out on Sprint and got in around $3.65... Almost doubled my investment there.. But your picks can't all be that... I got in on MU at $13.. it's around $17 now.. That's great!


You suck.  I thought about buying a local stock when it was at around $4 but didn't think they could survive.  Micron is a company with a culture of extreme paranoia of sexual harassment.  Plus they don't hire the brightest people.  Not that there are many bright engineer types in Boise anyway
 
2013-11-07 11:42:21 PM  

netringer: van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48

Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.

Those people who bought Facebook at over $100 a share sure got hosed.


Well, yeah, but those people only exist in an alternate universe.  In this universe, no one has ever payed over $100 a share for Facebook.
 
2013-11-08 12:07:07 AM  
I'm still trying to figure out how something like Twitter never turns a profit. Initially there'd have been little need for capital outlay and even a handful of generic ads would get revenue floating in. Of course this assumes they didn't go spending a ton of money upfront and putting themselves in the whole in a big way.
 
2013-11-08 12:16:27 AM  

van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.


Those people who bought Facebook at the ipo would have made a hell of a lot more money over the same period by buying a simple index fund. And they'd have had a hell of a lot less volatility and risk in the meantime.
 
2013-11-08 12:36:43 AM  

Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"


It will floop worse than Facebook, its nothing but advertising
 
2013-11-08 12:43:19 AM  

van1ty: vonmatrices: van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.

You're missing the in between period where facebook was around 18$.

So just wait and buy twitter when it hits the trough.


What on earth does that have to do with whether or not Facebook bombed.  It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price.  That is a fantastic ROI for just over a year.


It all depends on if they have the revenue stream figured out. FB didn't really get it figured until right around the IPO. FB would seem to be at an overall advantage in revenue and size as well as time so well see how it turns out.
 
2013-11-08 12:45:45 AM  

b2theory: It is a fantastic gamble. It is an insanely stupid investment.


Yep. If I'm going to gamble, I will buy Freddie Mac, who had enough PROFITS last quarter to buy Twitter wholesale today. Yet their market value is only 1 or 2 billion.

/granted their large profits were from exercising some deferred tax assets
 
2013-11-08 01:41:05 AM  

Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"


well, facebook got ITS money.  This is merely following the Facebook "lets overvalue the stock ridiculously and see if the suckers buy it" IPO model.
 
2013-11-08 01:45:40 AM  

DerpHerder: van1ty: vonmatrices: van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.

You're missing the in between period where facebook was around 18$.

So just wait and buy twitter when it hits the trough.


What on earth does that have to do with whether or not Facebook bombed.  It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price.  That is a fantastic ROI for just over a year.

It all depends on if they have the revenue stream figured out. FB didn't really get it figured until right around the IPO. FB would seem to be at an overall advantage in revenue and size as well as time so well see how it turns out.


The facebook trough, while predictable, was made worse by hype.  It did deserve to drop, as I said in the last post, but once it started, it started a dropping frenzy.
 
2013-11-08 02:23:15 AM  
Surprisingly, a lot of things can be learned from the American version of Shark Tank.  One of them is how much can you value your company at before potential investors laugh at you.

The answer, amongst rational self made m/billionaires, is far different than when a trendy tech stock with no real value goes public.

Interesting.
 
2013-11-08 02:42:36 AM  
Point: Amazon spent a long period in the wilderness before it became profitable

Counterpoint: Amazon doesn't rely on advertisers for its revenue

Interesting sidenote: Google's key business relies on advertisers for its revenue
 
2013-11-08 03:07:44 AM  
Note to self: Netscape-grade short here.
 
2013-11-08 04:14:37 AM  
Amazing how much press and investment this has generated. You'd think Twitter was on the brink of curing cancer or something.
 
2013-11-08 05:24:26 AM  

Reverend J: I would short the fark out of that stock if I had any money.


That's what I said about Google when it went out at $85.  Good thing I bought Apple instead.
 
2013-11-08 07:47:18 AM  
You can buy twitter followers 10,000 at a time for about $20 a pop.

You can have 20,000 adoring twitter fans for the price of a single share of twitter stock.
 
2013-11-08 08:40:02 AM  

WhyteRaven74: I'm still trying to figure out how something like Twitter never turns a profit. Initially there'd have been little need for capital outlay and even a handful of generic ads would get revenue floating in. Of course this assumes they didn't go spending a ton of money upfront and putting themselves in the whole in a big way.


well, part of it is stock-based compensation as well as depreciation and amortization of goodwill. non-cash charges that are unavoidable and will rise quickly for a company like twitter. those two items combine to $160 million in expenses so far this year; Twitter's overall loss so far this year is $130 million.
 
2013-11-08 09:06:40 AM  
I'm willing to bett around 300 this thing does the same exact trough as FB, but I'm new to this investor thing. What do people use?
 
2013-11-08 09:43:07 AM  

van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.


Especially those who bought in around $18
 
2013-11-08 10:02:30 AM  
I'm done with wasting money in the stock market. Moving on to safer, more predictable ventures like roulette.
 
2013-11-08 10:38:50 AM  

AeAe: By any metric that's a great return.


No, not by "any metric". You don't know what you're talking about.

If I had sold some of my dusty old GE stock to fund purchases in FB at the IPO and sold it today for that "great return" I'd have lost a considerable amount of money versus what I actually did: ignoring FB.

If your only metric is "it went up" you shouldn't be investing. Go put your money in a mattress or something instead before you get hurt.
Or, don't. Whatever. I'm more than happy to take your money if you want.
 
2013-11-08 10:50:48 AM  

skozlaw: AeAe: By any metric that's a great return.

No, not by "any metric". You don't know what you're talking about.

If I had sold some of my dusty old GE stock to fund purchases in FB at the IPO and sold it today for that "great return" I'd have lost a considerable amount of money versus what I actually did: ignoring FB.

If your only metric is "it went up" you shouldn't be investing. Go put your money in a mattress or something instead before you get hurt.
Or, don't. Whatever. I'm more than happy to take your money if you want.


What would you suggest buying into for someone just opening up a Roth IRA?
 
2013-11-08 10:58:36 AM  

I sound fat: DerpHerder: van1ty: vonmatrices: van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.

You're missing the in between period where facebook was around 18$.

So just wait and buy twitter when it hits the trough.


What on earth does that have to do with whether or not Facebook bombed.  It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price.  That is a fantastic ROI for just over a year.

It all depends on if they have the revenue stream figured out. FB didn't really get it figured until right around the IPO. FB would seem to be at an overall advantage in revenue and size as well as time so well see how it turns out.

The facebook trough, while predictable, was made worse by hype.  It did deserve to drop, as I said in the last post, but once it started, it started a dropping frenzy.


Completely agree. I was just saying that they actually found viable ways to monetize it and got the revenue stream more hashed out (still not where it needs to be). That's why you saw it climb back up. I still wouldn't be involved in that stock as I don't see social media and or facebook as a strong long term marketing tool (just my opinion). I do think that twitter is even more overvalued than facebook was and is in a less advantageous position. I'm about to graduate college with a marketing degree (I want to go into advertising) and its annoying that half the internships I've been applying to consist of 'managing socialmedia' as the main aspect. Outside of data mining I don't see social media as the great marketing tool everyone seems convinced it is. I've clicked on maybe 1 or two targeted adds ever and those were to look into the data mining.
 
2013-11-08 11:30:16 AM  

rzrwiresunrise: Amazing how much press and investment this has generated. You'd think Twitter was on the brink of curing cancer or something.


Twitter touches on all of the most critical echo chambers ... East coast journalists, "new media" blogosphere taste-makers, and Wall Street.  This is precisely why Warren Buffet has opted to stay in Omaha all these years.
 
2013-11-08 11:58:37 AM  
rzrwiresunrise:  Amazing how much press and investment this has generated. You'd think Twitter was on the brink of curing cancer or something.


Any time a major company goes public it's big news.  Add in the fact that the entire value of Twitter is speculative, and you've got yourself a media frenzy.  (Oh, and it doesn't hurt that Twitter is in the media business.)
 
2013-11-08 12:01:52 PM  
"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." - Rand Paul
 
2013-11-08 12:37:01 PM  

The_EliteOne: What would you suggest buying into for someone just opening up a Roth IRA?


Not to be flippant, but... I wouldn't, I'm not a financial adviser.

Generically, my strategy is just to stick with companies I know and more or less understand when buying individual stocks. Other tactics include seeking out stocks that you just want the dividends from (like CSCO and GE from my examples) or going with instant-diversification by buying mutual funds and the like.

Just don't expect you're going to start making money hand over fist by flipping stocks. If you had the inside access and resources required to do that, JP Morgan Chase would be paying you and you wouldn't have to worry about doing it in a Roth IRA.
 
2013-11-08 12:51:29 PM  

skozlaw: AeAe: By any metric that's a great return.

No, not by "any metric". You don't know what you're talking about.

If I had sold some of my dusty old GE stock to fund purchases in FB at the IPO and sold it today for that "great return" I'd have lost a considerable amount of money versus what I actually did: ignoring FB.

If your only metric is "it went up" you shouldn't be investing. Go put your money in a mattress or something instead before you get hurt.
Or, don't. Whatever. I'm more than happy to take your money if you want.


What?  I invest primarily to increase my capital, and I'm up about 30% this year.

I'm curious how you make investment choices if not to make money.

And, yes, I consider a stock to be a good investment if the stock value has gone up.
 
2013-11-08 01:12:50 PM  

AeAe: What? I invest primarily to increase my capital, and I'm up about 30% this year.

I'm curious how you make investment choices if not to make money.

And, yes, I consider a stock to be a good investment if the stock value has gone up.


No, I will not sit here and pretend you don't get the point.
 
2013-11-08 01:54:07 PM  
30% ROI?  Amateurs
 
2013-11-08 02:11:59 PM  

skozlaw: AeAe: What? I invest primarily to increase my capital, and I'm up about 30% this year.

I'm curious how you make investment choices if not to make money.

And, yes, I consider a stock to be a good investment if the stock value has gone up.

No, I will not sit here and pretend you don't get the point.


No, seriously, I'm dumb as balls.  I surprise myself that I can get up in the morning and dress myself.

I'm more lucky than smart.
 
2013-11-08 02:53:10 PM  

Rent Party: netringer: van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48

Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.

Those people who bought Facebook at over $100 a share sure got hosed.

Well, yeah, but those people only exist in an alternate universe.  In this universe, no one has ever payed over $100 a share for Facebook.


I wouldn't be so sure.  I seem to recall that someone in the bay area offered to trade his house for pre-IPO Facebook stock, although I don't know if anyone took him up on that.
 
2013-11-08 03:06:08 PM  
Subby is dumb but I hate the fark out of twitter so I don't know what to snark on
 
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