If you can read this, either the style sheet didn't load or you have an older browser that doesn't support style sheets. Try clearing your browser cache and refreshing the page.

(Guardian)   Valuing a company at 34 times revenue is just good common sense, especially when it's never turned a profit   (theguardian.com) divider line 85
    More: Obvious, IPO, revenues, stock markets, restricted stock  
•       •       •

3416 clicks; posted to Business » on 07 Nov 2013 at 1:33 PM (41 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



85 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2013-11-07 01:42:48 PM
When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"
 
2013-11-07 01:56:13 PM
"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes
 
2013-11-07 02:03:17 PM

Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"


Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.
 
2013-11-07 02:14:41 PM
I would short the fark out of that stock if I had any money.
 
2013-11-07 02:17:57 PM
I'll put em right next to my 80s baseball cards and 90s beaniebabies
 
2013-11-07 02:18:33 PM

Reverend J: I would short the fark out of that stock if I had any money.


Atomic Spunk: "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes

 
2013-11-07 02:18:41 PM

van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.


You're missing the in between period where facebook was around 18$.

So just wait and buy twitter when it hits the trough.
 
2013-11-07 02:22:25 PM
All Twitter accounts are fake.
 
2013-11-07 02:25:12 PM
I wasn't aware that Twitter even had revenue.
 
2013-11-07 02:27:29 PM

vonmatrices: van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.

You're missing the in between period where facebook was around 18$.

So just wait and buy twitter when it hits the trough.



What on earth does that have to do with whether or not Facebook bombed.  It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price.  That is a fantastic ROI for just over a year.
 
2013-11-07 02:29:17 PM
What kind of growth strategy do they have?

"Sign up for what will become a massive advertising platform. We also plan on selling your data. But you know, you can post bullshiat for strangers to read. Maybe you'll get on Gawker."
 
2013-11-07 02:34:41 PM

vonmatrices: van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.

You're missing the in between period where facebook was around 18$.

So just wait and buy twitter when it hits the trough.


That's my plan.  I have a couple grand just sitting around ready to go when it tanks.
 
2013-11-07 02:35:52 PM
It makes sense for Twitter.

Sure, the Facebook IPO was a failure for you the investor because you didn't get your initial bump, but FB got more than they were worth.  It was a huge win for them.

The more overvalued a company is at the IPO, the better a deal it is for that company.
 
2013-11-07 02:54:10 PM

van1ty: It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price


And Cisco, an established company with quarterly dividends, is up more than 30% over the same period with far less volatility. GE is up 40% over the same period, again, much more stable and also with good dividends.

What's your point? "It went up" doesn't really mean a whole lot in investing.
 
2013-11-07 02:58:57 PM

Rapmaster2000: It makes sense for Twitter.

Sure, the Facebook IPO was a failure for you the investor because you didn't get your initial bump, but FB got more than they were worth.  It was a huge win for them.

The more overvalued a company is at the IPO, the better a deal it is for that company.


Which is the only point. These companies aren't trying to be companies, not like IBM and GE or anything like that -- they just want to cash out and make sure the angels and venture guys get their returns too. Going public isn't for the public, or the compnay, it's for the few dozen people with options that get to be millionaires now. Once the thing's public, who gives a shiat. See: Groupon.
 
2013-11-07 03:03:39 PM
The secret Twitter business plan is to take stock positions and then tweet rumors that make the automated trading systems go bananas. They'll make a killing.
 
2013-11-07 03:05:13 PM

Scrotastic Method: Which is the only point. These companies aren't trying to be companies, not like IBM and GE or anything like that -- they just want to cash out and make sure the angels and venture guys get their returns too. Going public isn't for the public, or the compnay, it's for the few dozen people with options that get to be millionaires now. Once the thing's public, who gives a shiat. See: Groupon.


Are you aware that the fundamental point of an IPO is to raise money? The whole point is to put shares of the company out there for the public to invest in which brings in money to fund growth. If you just want an initial kick then you're gambling against the fundamental point of the IPO and if you lose your ass when it doesn't happen that's you're own stupid fault.

If you don't think the company can grow with investment money.... don't give it any investment money.
 
2013-11-07 03:10:19 PM
Valuation is entirely dependent on how well you have greased your banker, and nothing else.
 
2013-11-07 03:45:59 PM

skozlaw: Scrotastic Method: Which is the only point. These companies aren't trying to be companies, not like IBM and GE or anything like that -- they just want to cash out and make sure the angels and venture guys get their returns too. Going public isn't for the public, or the compnay, it's for the few dozen people with options that get to be millionaires now. Once the thing's public, who gives a shiat. See: Groupon.

Are you aware that the fundamental point of an IPO is to raise money? The whole point is to put shares of the company out there for the public to invest in which brings in money to fund growth. If you just want an initial kick then you're gambling against the fundamental point of the IPO and if you lose your ass when it doesn't happen that's you're own stupid fault.

If you don't think the company can grow with investment money.... don't give it any investment money.


you are partially right.

it is to raise money,but not necessarily to fund growth. IPOs are also done to pay off debt and/or allow equity holders to cash out.

some recent examples include Coty, Brixmor, Hilton, Pinnacle Foods, etc.
 
2013-11-07 03:55:28 PM
Twitter will fall hard in the popping of TechBubble 2.0 but in the long run it will become the cornerstone of the information industry. It reminds me of our old newswires, except anyone can post to it, and anyone can read it.

Apply some credibility filters, charge for the ability to post article length message, and you've got an open source newswire.

Kind of neat.
 
2013-11-07 03:56:50 PM

H31N0US: Apply some credibility filters


They  sort of already do this with the verified checkmark. Although that in and of itself doesn't convey credibility and I am not sure how you would implement such a thing.
 
2013-11-07 04:06:11 PM
How does twitter make money?

/Honestly no idea
//Can't all be ad revenue.
 
2013-11-07 04:07:29 PM
I don't do the Twitter, but how on earth are they going to make any money?  Do they shove ads into the feeds?  My wife subscribes to some news feeds and the like, and I've never seen an ad on her reader.

/Serious question
 
2013-11-07 04:10:44 PM

downstairs: I don't do the Twitter, but how on earth are they going to make any money?  Do they shove ads into the feeds?  My wife subscribes to some news feeds and the like, and I've never seen an ad on her reader.

/Serious question


Sometimes there are "sponsered" tweets.

/can't remember the last time I saw one.
 
2013-11-07 04:14:26 PM

Nexzus: How does twitter make money?


downstairs: how on earth are they going to make any money?


Ads and "promoted" tweets, mostly. You can also effectively buy a "trending" hashtag that sticks around whether it's actually popular or not. The NFL does it all the time.
 
2013-11-07 04:15:07 PM
How are they going to be able to fund an expected $13 Billion a year in revenue growth, without just absolutely carpet bombing the fark out of it's users with ads in their feeds?   I know a lot of people have already stopped using Twitter because it's already hit a critical mass of users and bots and morphed into an undecipherable wall of white noise.
 
2013-11-07 04:17:24 PM

Nexzus: How does twitter make money?

/Honestly no idea
//Can't all be ad revenue.


Explained
 
2013-11-07 04:50:30 PM

skozlaw: Scrotastic Method: Which is the only point. These companies aren't trying to be companies, not like IBM and GE or anything like that -- they just want to cash out and make sure the angels and venture guys get their returns too. Going public isn't for the public, or the compnay, it's for the few dozen people with options that get to be millionaires now. Once the thing's public, who gives a shiat. See: Groupon.

Are you aware that the fundamental point of an IPO is to raise money? The whole point is to put shares of the company out there for the public to invest in which brings in money to fund growth. If you just want an initial kick then you're gambling against the fundamental point of the IPO and if you lose your ass when it doesn't happen that's you're own stupid fault.

If you don't think the company can grow with investment money.... don't give it any investment money.


Some people invest because they think that a company will be substantively WORTH more in the future, and that at that time, other people will pay more for that stock than they did.  Other people don't care about substantive worth, they are only focused on what they think people will pay for it in the future.  This later group can drive up stock prices "irrationally" (by the Keynes quote earlier), without regard for it's actual business valuation.  Facebook and Twitter and Amazon (don't forget about Amazon) are "hot stocks" and people pay more because people pay more because people pay more... Until one day, people there are no more idiots to buy on the other side and the whole thing comes crashing down.  It could happen tomorrow or when the sun goes out.  Place your bets!
 
2013-11-07 05:31:30 PM
How can Twitter make money?

I'm not the CEO of Twitter. Honest. I'm just asking for a friend.
 
2013-11-07 06:29:24 PM
Eh I'm of two minds on Twitter stock. As much I hate it and wish it didn't exist, I don't see a world without it or something like it. It's too prevalent...the farking news cites it as a source and shiat that people say on there becomes "news".

So it sounds like a good buy but...I could easily see NextTwitter coming out and completely MySpacing the shiat out of Twitter. And really, does anyone think there isn't going to be a next thing? It has limited long term value I think.
 
2013-11-07 06:33:13 PM

js34603:  It has limited long term value I think.


In other words make your money off the stock quick because this diaper is going to be full of shiat soon
 
2013-11-07 06:37:29 PM

skozlaw: Nexzus: How does twitter make money?

downstairs: how on earth are they going to make any money?

Ads and "promoted" tweets, mostly. You can also effectively buy a "trending" hashtag that sticks around whether it's actually popular or not. The NFL does it all the time.


Oh, so THAT'S why I sometimes see trending tags that don't make any sense.
 
2013-11-07 06:51:29 PM

www.zerohedge.com

Rent Party:
Valuation is entirely dependent on how well you have greased your banker, and nothing else.


The bankers got greased pretty damn well with this one. If they'd priced the offering higher (vs the $26 initial offer price announced thru brokerages) then Twitter wouldn't have left a billion or so on the table; instead the bankers won that share when they sold into the market at almost $20 higher than what Twitter received.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2013/11/07/heck-no-i-wont-invest-i n- twitter-after-this-ipo-debacle/

/put in commit-to-buy order with my broker, got 0 allocation
//turns out that nobody got an allocation, except the largest of the investment banks
///not bitter
////no
 
2013-11-07 06:56:02 PM

van1ty: Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed


The private investors that bought the first day and panicked took a bath.  And just because it's at 48 today doesn't mean that's what it's "really" worth.  I have seen stocks that have less than zero behind them go up and stay thee for phenomenal amounts of time.

At the end of the day you need a steady dependable revenue stream that won't go elsewhere at the changing of the tides.  And on that count Facebook is very risky indeed.
 
2013-11-07 07:19:09 PM
It doesn't matter whether the company can make a profit.  What matters is whether churning the stock can make a profit.  And for those favored individuals allowed to buy at $26 and can sell at $45, it will be very profitable.
 
2013-11-07 07:26:08 PM

Marcus Aurelius: van1ty: Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed

The private investors that bought the first day and panicked took a bath.  And just because it's at 48 today doesn't mean that's what it's "really" worth.  I have seen stocks that have less than zero behind them go up and stay thee for phenomenal amounts of time.

At the end of the day you need a steady dependable revenue stream that won't go elsewhere at the changing of the tides.  And on that count Facebook is very risky indeed.


Agreed:
Legislative change wrt privacy/ownership of data - e.g. Germany
Infinite space for ads attenuating value of same towards zero
Pollution by fake profiles
Software ad-blockers
Fashions and trend being lightning quick at pulling the rug out.

etc.
 
2013-11-07 07:55:21 PM

skozlaw: van1ty: It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price

And Cisco, an established company with quarterly dividends, is up more than 30% over the same period with far less volatility. GE is up 40% over the same period, again, much more stable and also with good dividends.

What's your point? "It went up" doesn't really mean a whole lot in investing.


What's YOUR point?  It's up 25%.  By any metric that's a great return.
 
2013-11-07 08:06:12 PM

van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.


Yeah, my 38 pennies is now worth 48 pennies.
Fan-dam-tastic.

Pump the bubble, wall streeters, pump it good.
 
2013-11-07 08:20:17 PM

AeAe: skozlaw: van1ty: It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price

And Cisco, an established company with quarterly dividends, is up more than 30% over the same period with far less volatility. GE is up 40% over the same period, again, much more stable and also with good dividends.

What's your point? "It went up" doesn't really mean a whole lot in investing.

What's YOUR point?  It's up 25%.  By any metric that's a great return.


Sucks to be your investments.  My shares of Ruger are up slightly over 60%

//can't go wrong betting on violence when it comes to humans
 
2013-11-07 09:07:29 PM

Marcus Aurelius: I have seen stocks that have less than zero behind them go up and stay thee for phenomenal amounts of time.


No surprise there, as stocks are valued based on what's ahead of them, not what's behind them.

Plus more than a little baseless speculation about what other people think other people think a stock will be worth.
 
2013-11-07 09:29:50 PM
"Valuing a company at 34 times revenue is just good common sense, especially when it's never turned a profit..."

Generally speaking valuing companies is good common sense as long as you are doing it accurately.  Good headline.
 
2013-11-07 09:32:44 PM
Wish I could short it.
 
2013-11-07 09:36:33 PM

NewportBarGuy: Wish I could short it.


I have a little over $6K I could short TWTR with.  I'm not that ballsy.  I'll wait till it crashes and then crawls back up just like Facebook did.
 
2013-11-07 09:37:41 PM

van1ty: vonmatrices: van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.

You're missing the in between period where facebook was around 18$.

So just wait and buy twitter when it hits the trough.


What on earth does that have to do with whether or not Facebook bombed.  It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price.  That is a fantastic ROI for just over a year.


I was just making the point that if you are going to use past performance of a similar stock to try and chart this one's path, all you have to do is wait until twitter dips low with the early speculators cashing out early, then buy low while twitter figures out how to turn a steady profit.  No need to buy today, tomorrow, or next week if the price isn't right.
 
2013-11-07 09:46:17 PM

Smeggy Smurf: I'm not that ballsy.


I reversed my Tesla short ahead of earnings and got burned badly. I've really got to stop playing the momentum stocks. I'm only down $100 because of the previous short, but it is so hard to trade from the outside. The only plus is the short interest, but they could wait until $90 or lower to execute.

I want to short Twitter because they picked the worst time to IPO. If I can find the shares to short tomorrow, I will. There is no way that price is valid. They have no dividend. So, bonus.

Just have to hold it through the fluctuations.
 
2013-11-07 09:47:15 PM

Smeggy Smurf: AeAe: skozlaw: van1ty: It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price

And Cisco, an established company with quarterly dividends, is up more than 30% over the same period with far less volatility. GE is up 40% over the same period, again, much more stable and also with good dividends.

What's your point? "It went up" doesn't really mean a whole lot in investing.

What's YOUR point?  It's up 25%.  By any metric that's a great return.

Sucks to be your investments.  My shares of Ruger are up slightly over 60%

//can't go wrong betting on violence when it comes to humans

~

From here it reads like skozlaw's point [and Smeggy Smurf's point] is that they SCOFF at an NYSE beta-smashing return of 25%, and that there were better stocks you could have picked, and that they have the 1337 investing skillz0rz to pick such stocks.

i44.tinypic.com
 
2013-11-07 09:54:36 PM

Big Ramifications: Smeggy Smurf: AeAe: skozlaw: van1ty: It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price

And Cisco, an established company with quarterly dividends, is up more than 30% over the same period with far less volatility. GE is up 40% over the same period, again, much more stable and also with good dividends.

What's your point? "It went up" doesn't really mean a whole lot in investing.

What's YOUR point?  It's up 25%.  By any metric that's a great return.

Sucks to be your investments.  My shares of Ruger are up slightly over 60%

//can't go wrong betting on violence when it comes to humans
~

From here it reads like skozlaw's point [and Smeggy Smurf's point] is that they SCOFF at an NYSE beta-smashing return of 25%, and that there were better stocks you could have picked, and that they have the 1337 investing skillz0rz to pick such stocks.

[i44.tinypic.com image 567x353]


My choices of gun and defense stocks have netted me a return of some 45% as of closing today.  So yeah.

/always bet on violence
 
2013-11-07 10:07:36 PM

van1ty: vonmatrices: van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.

You're missing the in between period where facebook was around 18$.

So just wait and buy twitter when it hits the trough.


What on earth does that have to do with whether or not Facebook bombed.  It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price.  That is a fantastic ROI for just over a year.


It is a fantastic gamble. It is an insanely stupid investment. The cash they have on hand is worth more than the intrinsic value if the company.
 
2013-11-07 10:10:48 PM

Big Ramifications: Smeggy Smurf: AeAe: skozlaw: van1ty: It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price

And Cisco, an established company with quarterly dividends, is up more than 30% over the same period with far less volatility. GE is up 40% over the same period, again, much more stable and also with good dividends.

What's your point? "It went up" doesn't really mean a whole lot in investing.

What's YOUR point?  It's up 25%.  By any metric that's a great return.

Sucks to be your investments.  My shares of Ruger are up slightly over 60%

//can't go wrong betting on violence when it comes to humans
~

From here it reads like skozlaw's point [and Smeggy Smurf's point] is that they SCOFF at an NYSE beta-smashing return of 25%, and that there were better stocks you could have picked, and that they have the 1337 investing skillz0rz to pick such stocks.

[i44.tinypic.com image 567x353]


Well, duh.. 30% is better and 60% is even better.. but you can't shiat on 25%...

I lucked out on Sprint and got in around $3.65... Almost doubled my investment there.. But your picks can't all be that... I got in on MU at $13.. it's around $17 now.. That's great!
 
2013-11-07 10:12:00 PM

InmanRoshi: How are they going to be able to fund an expected $13 Billion a year in revenue growth, without just absolutely carpet bombing the fark out of it's users with ads in their feeds?   I know a lot of people have already stopped using Twitter because it's already hit a critical mass of users and bots and morphed into an undecipherable wall of white noise.


Change it up so that verified corporate and celebrity accounts are paid. I use Twitter for things like seeing when Amazon runs a new lightning deal around the holidays, so it is basically a form of targeted opt-in advertising already.
 
2013-11-07 11:18:34 PM

Big Ramifications: Smeggy Smurf: AeAe: skozlaw: van1ty: It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price

And Cisco, an established company with quarterly dividends, is up more than 30% over the same period with far less volatility. GE is up 40% over the same period, again, much more stable and also with good dividends.

What's your point? "It went up" doesn't really mean a whole lot in investing.

What's YOUR point?  It's up 25%.  By any metric that's a great return.

Sucks to be your investments.  My shares of Ruger are up slightly over 60%

//can't go wrong betting on violence when it comes to humans
~

From here it reads like skozlaw's point [and Smeggy Smurf's point] is that they SCOFF at an NYSE beta-smashing return of 25%, and that there were better stocks you could have picked, and that they have the 1337 investing skillz0rz to pick such stocks.

[i44.tinypic.com image 567x353]

~

Erm, skozlaw also pointed out the stability and dividend history of the other stocks. And I've got no idea what the NYSE beta was for that period. So I disqualify myself from this thread.
 
2013-11-07 11:29:55 PM
I have tried and tried to make Twitter work for me. It's not great for sharing things with followers because fark 140 characters. It's not great for following people you're interested in because almost everyone retweets almost everything. It's not great for breaking news. It's not great for disseminating information. It's the worst echo chamber inside the Internet's echo chamber.

Do they even have revenue? Are they an ad platform? The few times I've used Twitter I don't recall seeing any ads, either on mobile or on the desktop.

So, much like Warren Buffett didn't invest in dotcoms in the late nineties because he didn't understand them...I shall not be investing in Twitter.
 
2013-11-07 11:32:56 PM

van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48

Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.


Those people who bought Facebook at over $100 a share sure got hosed.
 
2013-11-07 11:36:20 PM

AeAe: Big Ramifications: Smeggy Smurf: AeAe: skozlaw: van1ty: It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price

And Cisco, an established company with quarterly dividends, is up more than 30% over the same period with far less volatility. GE is up 40% over the same period, again, much more stable and also with good dividends.

What's your point? "It went up" doesn't really mean a whole lot in investing.

What's YOUR point?  It's up 25%.  By any metric that's a great return.

Sucks to be your investments.  My shares of Ruger are up slightly over 60%

//can't go wrong betting on violence when it comes to humans
~

From here it reads like skozlaw's point [and Smeggy Smurf's point] is that they SCOFF at an NYSE beta-smashing return of 25%, and that there were better stocks you could have picked, and that they have the 1337 investing skillz0rz to pick such stocks.

[i44.tinypic.com image 567x353]

Well, duh.. 30% is better and 60% is even better.. but you can't shiat on 25%...

I lucked out on Sprint and got in around $3.65... Almost doubled my investment there.. But your picks can't all be that... I got in on MU at $13.. it's around $17 now.. That's great!


You suck.  I thought about buying a local stock when it was at around $4 but didn't think they could survive.  Micron is a company with a culture of extreme paranoia of sexual harassment.  Plus they don't hire the brightest people.  Not that there are many bright engineer types in Boise anyway
 
2013-11-07 11:42:21 PM

netringer: van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48

Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.

Those people who bought Facebook at over $100 a share sure got hosed.


Well, yeah, but those people only exist in an alternate universe.  In this universe, no one has ever payed over $100 a share for Facebook.
 
2013-11-08 12:07:07 AM
I'm still trying to figure out how something like Twitter never turns a profit. Initially there'd have been little need for capital outlay and even a handful of generic ads would get revenue floating in. Of course this assumes they didn't go spending a ton of money upfront and putting themselves in the whole in a big way.
 
2013-11-08 12:16:27 AM

van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.


Those people who bought Facebook at the ipo would have made a hell of a lot more money over the same period by buying a simple index fund. And they'd have had a hell of a lot less volatility and risk in the meantime.
 
2013-11-08 12:36:43 AM

Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"


It will floop worse than Facebook, its nothing but advertising
 
2013-11-08 12:43:19 AM

van1ty: vonmatrices: van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.

You're missing the in between period where facebook was around 18$.

So just wait and buy twitter when it hits the trough.


What on earth does that have to do with whether or not Facebook bombed.  It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price.  That is a fantastic ROI for just over a year.


It all depends on if they have the revenue stream figured out. FB didn't really get it figured until right around the IPO. FB would seem to be at an overall advantage in revenue and size as well as time so well see how it turns out.
 
2013-11-08 12:45:45 AM

b2theory: It is a fantastic gamble. It is an insanely stupid investment.


Yep. If I'm going to gamble, I will buy Freddie Mac, who had enough PROFITS last quarter to buy Twitter wholesale today. Yet their market value is only 1 or 2 billion.

/granted their large profits were from exercising some deferred tax assets
 
2013-11-08 01:41:05 AM

Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"


well, facebook got ITS money.  This is merely following the Facebook "lets overvalue the stock ridiculously and see if the suckers buy it" IPO model.
 
2013-11-08 01:45:40 AM

DerpHerder: van1ty: vonmatrices: van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.

You're missing the in between period where facebook was around 18$.

So just wait and buy twitter when it hits the trough.


What on earth does that have to do with whether or not Facebook bombed.  It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price.  That is a fantastic ROI for just over a year.

It all depends on if they have the revenue stream figured out. FB didn't really get it figured until right around the IPO. FB would seem to be at an overall advantage in revenue and size as well as time so well see how it turns out.


The facebook trough, while predictable, was made worse by hype.  It did deserve to drop, as I said in the last post, but once it started, it started a dropping frenzy.
 
2013-11-08 02:23:15 AM
Surprisingly, a lot of things can be learned from the American version of Shark Tank.  One of them is how much can you value your company at before potential investors laugh at you.

The answer, amongst rational self made m/billionaires, is far different than when a trendy tech stock with no real value goes public.

Interesting.
 
2013-11-08 02:42:36 AM
Point: Amazon spent a long period in the wilderness before it became profitable

Counterpoint: Amazon doesn't rely on advertisers for its revenue

Interesting sidenote: Google's key business relies on advertisers for its revenue
 
2013-11-08 03:07:44 AM
Note to self: Netscape-grade short here.
 
2013-11-08 04:14:37 AM
Amazing how much press and investment this has generated. You'd think Twitter was on the brink of curing cancer or something.
 
2013-11-08 05:24:26 AM

Reverend J: I would short the fark out of that stock if I had any money.


That's what I said about Google when it went out at $85.  Good thing I bought Apple instead.
 
2013-11-08 07:47:18 AM
You can buy twitter followers 10,000 at a time for about $20 a pop.

You can have 20,000 adoring twitter fans for the price of a single share of twitter stock.
 
2013-11-08 08:40:02 AM

WhyteRaven74: I'm still trying to figure out how something like Twitter never turns a profit. Initially there'd have been little need for capital outlay and even a handful of generic ads would get revenue floating in. Of course this assumes they didn't go spending a ton of money upfront and putting themselves in the whole in a big way.


well, part of it is stock-based compensation as well as depreciation and amortization of goodwill. non-cash charges that are unavoidable and will rise quickly for a company like twitter. those two items combine to $160 million in expenses so far this year; Twitter's overall loss so far this year is $130 million.
 
2013-11-08 09:06:40 AM
I'm willing to bett around 300 this thing does the same exact trough as FB, but I'm new to this investor thing. What do people use?
 
2013-11-08 09:43:07 AM

van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.


Especially those who bought in around $18
 
2013-11-08 10:02:30 AM
I'm done with wasting money in the stock market. Moving on to safer, more predictable ventures like roulette.
 
2013-11-08 10:38:50 AM

AeAe: By any metric that's a great return.


No, not by "any metric". You don't know what you're talking about.

If I had sold some of my dusty old GE stock to fund purchases in FB at the IPO and sold it today for that "great return" I'd have lost a considerable amount of money versus what I actually did: ignoring FB.

If your only metric is "it went up" you shouldn't be investing. Go put your money in a mattress or something instead before you get hurt.
Or, don't. Whatever. I'm more than happy to take your money if you want.
 
2013-11-08 10:50:48 AM

skozlaw: AeAe: By any metric that's a great return.

No, not by "any metric". You don't know what you're talking about.

If I had sold some of my dusty old GE stock to fund purchases in FB at the IPO and sold it today for that "great return" I'd have lost a considerable amount of money versus what I actually did: ignoring FB.

If your only metric is "it went up" you shouldn't be investing. Go put your money in a mattress or something instead before you get hurt.
Or, don't. Whatever. I'm more than happy to take your money if you want.


What would you suggest buying into for someone just opening up a Roth IRA?
 
2013-11-08 10:58:36 AM

I sound fat: DerpHerder: van1ty: vonmatrices: van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48


Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.

You're missing the in between period where facebook was around 18$.

So just wait and buy twitter when it hits the trough.


What on earth does that have to do with whether or not Facebook bombed.  It is a fact that the Facebook stock is 25% higher today than its IPO price.  That is a fantastic ROI for just over a year.

It all depends on if they have the revenue stream figured out. FB didn't really get it figured until right around the IPO. FB would seem to be at an overall advantage in revenue and size as well as time so well see how it turns out.

The facebook trough, while predictable, was made worse by hype.  It did deserve to drop, as I said in the last post, but once it started, it started a dropping frenzy.


Completely agree. I was just saying that they actually found viable ways to monetize it and got the revenue stream more hashed out (still not where it needs to be). That's why you saw it climb back up. I still wouldn't be involved in that stock as I don't see social media and or facebook as a strong long term marketing tool (just my opinion). I do think that twitter is even more overvalued than facebook was and is in a less advantageous position. I'm about to graduate college with a marketing degree (I want to go into advertising) and its annoying that half the internships I've been applying to consist of 'managing socialmedia' as the main aspect. Outside of data mining I don't see social media as the great marketing tool everyone seems convinced it is. I've clicked on maybe 1 or two targeted adds ever and those were to look into the data mining.
 
2013-11-08 11:30:16 AM

rzrwiresunrise: Amazing how much press and investment this has generated. You'd think Twitter was on the brink of curing cancer or something.


Twitter touches on all of the most critical echo chambers ... East coast journalists, "new media" blogosphere taste-makers, and Wall Street.  This is precisely why Warren Buffet has opted to stay in Omaha all these years.
 
2013-11-08 11:58:37 AM
rzrwiresunrise:  Amazing how much press and investment this has generated. You'd think Twitter was on the brink of curing cancer or something.


Any time a major company goes public it's big news.  Add in the fact that the entire value of Twitter is speculative, and you've got yourself a media frenzy.  (Oh, and it doesn't hurt that Twitter is in the media business.)
 
2013-11-08 12:01:52 PM
"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." - Rand Paul
 
2013-11-08 12:37:01 PM

The_EliteOne: What would you suggest buying into for someone just opening up a Roth IRA?


Not to be flippant, but... I wouldn't, I'm not a financial adviser.

Generically, my strategy is just to stick with companies I know and more or less understand when buying individual stocks. Other tactics include seeking out stocks that you just want the dividends from (like CSCO and GE from my examples) or going with instant-diversification by buying mutual funds and the like.

Just don't expect you're going to start making money hand over fist by flipping stocks. If you had the inside access and resources required to do that, JP Morgan Chase would be paying you and you wouldn't have to worry about doing it in a Roth IRA.
 
2013-11-08 12:51:29 PM

skozlaw: AeAe: By any metric that's a great return.

No, not by "any metric". You don't know what you're talking about.

If I had sold some of my dusty old GE stock to fund purchases in FB at the IPO and sold it today for that "great return" I'd have lost a considerable amount of money versus what I actually did: ignoring FB.

If your only metric is "it went up" you shouldn't be investing. Go put your money in a mattress or something instead before you get hurt.
Or, don't. Whatever. I'm more than happy to take your money if you want.


What?  I invest primarily to increase my capital, and I'm up about 30% this year.

I'm curious how you make investment choices if not to make money.

And, yes, I consider a stock to be a good investment if the stock value has gone up.
 
2013-11-08 01:12:50 PM

AeAe: What? I invest primarily to increase my capital, and I'm up about 30% this year.

I'm curious how you make investment choices if not to make money.

And, yes, I consider a stock to be a good investment if the stock value has gone up.


No, I will not sit here and pretend you don't get the point.
 
2013-11-08 01:54:07 PM
30% ROI?  Amateurs
 
2013-11-08 02:11:59 PM

skozlaw: AeAe: What? I invest primarily to increase my capital, and I'm up about 30% this year.

I'm curious how you make investment choices if not to make money.

And, yes, I consider a stock to be a good investment if the stock value has gone up.

No, I will not sit here and pretend you don't get the point.


No, seriously, I'm dumb as balls.  I surprise myself that I can get up in the morning and dress myself.

I'm more lucky than smart.
 
2013-11-08 02:53:10 PM

Rent Party: netringer: van1ty: Drollia: When it flops like Facebook did, everyone is going to be "shocked"

Facebook IPO:  $38 a share.

Current price per share:  $48

Yeah those people who bought Facebook stock sure got hosed.

Those people who bought Facebook at over $100 a share sure got hosed.

Well, yeah, but those people only exist in an alternate universe.  In this universe, no one has ever payed over $100 a share for Facebook.


I wouldn't be so sure.  I seem to recall that someone in the bay area offered to trade his house for pre-IPO Facebook stock, although I don't know if anyone took him up on that.
 
2013-11-08 03:06:08 PM
Subby is dumb but I hate the fark out of twitter so I don't know what to snark on
 
Displayed 85 of 85 comments

View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest


This thread is closed to new comments.

Continue Farking
Submit a Link »






Report