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7999 clicks; posted to Main » on 07 Nov 2013 at 7:42 AM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:    more»

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So 1 in 10^8 instead of 1 in 10^9?

Really?

/where's that jpeg of "I'm Okay with this?"

Bring it

/at least it will solve the global warming problem

dookdookdook: So 1 in 10^8 instead of 1 in 10^9?

This was pretty-much my first reaction, except you expressed it in actual mathanese.

dookdookdook: So 1 in 10^8 instead of 1 in 10^9?

This.

On the geological time scale, it's inevitable!

Bring it.  Preferably by Saturday, so I don't have to have that project finished for work.

In general the chance of a collision is approaching zero. We'll get there eventually.

Let's just send Bruce Willis into orbit and keep him there. That'll cover our collective fifth element/digging into asteroid bases.

/multipass

Chance of every single person reading this comment dying = 1

Chance of them all going simultaneously = almost 0

OMG! OH NO!  The sky is falling!!!!!!1

10x0=?

Bucky Katt: OMG! OH NO!  The sky is falling!!!!!!1

Every day. Tons and Tons.

The chance of Gizmodo posting clickbait, however, is exactly what I had figured.

So the chance of 2007 VK184 (the only asteroid listed by the JPL with a value on the Torino Scale) hitting Earth in June 2048 is 0.55% instead of 0.055%?

I expect to see something like this on an Alex Jones site.

QUICK!  STOCK UP ON PERISHABLES!

TRAMPLE THE WEAK!

"Dear VISA,
Just walk away. End the horror."

Ahhh, you're only farked if it hits you on the head.

*Opens umbrella*

Suckers.

Headline of TFA:  Risk of asteroid hitting Earth is ten times higher than we thought
From TFA:  The research team estimates the strike rate of asteroids as two to 10 times as likely than before.

Well, the jist of the article is that the threat of the big rocks has not changed, but people are starting to look for smaller ones and realizing they are more common then was thought.

So we are not talking about killing off the human race, but the chance that something big enough to destroy a couple building if it hit a city is much higher than estimated before.
The net effect is chance of a meteor causing a 9/11 sized incident is probably actually measurable now and will only grow as we expand to cover more of our planet.

Fee-ar, fee-ar, fee-ar.
Bee af-raid.

All debts will be forgiven when the asteroid strikes.

We're not any more likely to get hit, they just expanded the definition of what counts as a hit.

Dont tell me the odds.

I think we should certainly look into this right away!

PainInTheASP: Ahhh, you're only farked if it hits you on the head.

*Opens umbrella*

Suckers.

Actually, that might not result in more than a bruise. See this 1954 incident

Say we had 2 days notice to empty a city with a million people. The chaos. Let nature take it's coarse.

'On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.'  The problem is the timeline is just too long.

Deep Contact: Say we had 2 days notice to empty a city with a million people. The chaos. Let nature take it's coarse.

Unless its the city you're in

EasyWind: The problem is the timeline is just too long.

Outlaw time!

Problem solved.

wildcardjack: PainInTheASP: Ahhh, you're only farked if it hits you on the head.

*Opens umbrella*

Suckers.

Actually, that might not result in more than a bruise. See this 1954 incident

Gah!   The swelling.

Its all these people doing all this math that's gonna make this thing happen!

Knock it off!

Humanity isn't getting off that light.

Deep Contact: Say we had 2 days notice to empty a city with a million people. The chaos. Let nature take it's coarse.

Been there, done that, got the meme:

Oldiron_79: Deep Contact: Say we had 2 days notice to empty a city with a million people. The chaos. Let nature take it's coarse.

Unless its the city you're in

Go out in a blaze of glory.

Boyfriend?! What about that million to one odds you mentioned earlier?

This just in! There's been a 100% increase in demands in this thread for statisticians to knock it off!

We're all... somethinged....

*exclamationexclamationexclamation*

Paris1127: So the chance of 2007 VK184 (the only asteroid listed by the JPL with a value on the Torino Scale) hitting Earth in June 2048 is 0.55% instead of 0.055%?

Nope, the chance of any specific rock hitting us isn't changing. Not even the chance of the 100+ feet wide rocks. They merely added the small rocks to the equation. And as anyone with any knowledge of statistics knows, the chance of succes go up when you define more things as succes.

If you're really worried about it I'd be glad to sell you some asteroid insurance.

thamike: [media.mlive.com image 380x271]
QUICK!  STOCK UP ON PERISHABLES!
TRAMPLE THE WEAK!

Good God, is it Thursday already?

namatad: Bucky Katt: OMG! OH NO!  The sky is falling!!!!!!1

Every day. Tons and Tons.

14 tons per year approximately

We're literally being buried in the shiat slowly over time

thamike: [media.mlive.com image 380x271]
QUICK!  STOCK UP ON PERISHABLES!
TRAMPLE THE WEAK!

Nerf guns are perishable?

Deep Contact: Say we had 2 days notice to empty a city with a million people. The chaos. Let nature take it's coarse.

What a gritty statement.  It's abrasive, certainly.

dookdookdook: So 1 in 10^8 instead of 1 in 10^9?

Yep thinking the same as well, still not very likely. Frankly there are a lot more things worth being afraid of.

Relevant and hot.

Stupid article is stupid.  I really think I am now dumber after reading it.

For example, the meteorite in Russia was only 62 feet wide but still exploded over Earth with the force of 40 Hiroshima-type atom bombs.

WAT?!?

From Wikipedia:   The atmosphere absorbed most of the object's energy, with a total kinetic energy before atmospheric impact equivalent to approximately 440 kilotons of TNT (about 1.8 PJ), 20-30 times more energy than was released from the atomic bomb detonated at Hiroshima, and about 10% greater than the former Soviet Union's own RDS-6s "fusion boosted" nuclear device's test detonation on August 12, 1953.

and

The object did not release all of its energy in the form of an explosion, because some 90 kilotons of TNT (about 3.75 x 1014 joules, or 0.375 PJ) of the total energy of the fireball was emitted as visible light according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

So, the real number was between 20-30, but lets just say 40 times and leave out the part about where that estimate is total kinetic energy before atmospheric impact and how most of that energy was bled out as it raced across the sky.

Look, I know people were injured by the Russian meteorite and buildings were damaged, but if most of the TEN TIMES MORE LIKELY is coming from object that size and smaller, you'll forgive me for reacting with a big ol' "meh".

Lets throw the article writer at an incoming little asteroid, rear end first.

It would be fun and a new genre of p0rn all wrapped up in one...

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