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(Marketwatch)   Wall Street analysts issue a strong sell signal   (marketwatch.com) divider line 20
    More: Scary, Wall Street, accounting analyst, SPX, signals  
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1424 clicks; posted to Business » on 03 Nov 2013 at 8:41 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



20 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2013-11-03 08:46:04 AM  
I'm no genius but it seems to me the stock market is inflated.

The only problem is where else are you going to put your money?

/I'm trying a house-flipping.
 
2013-11-03 09:09:13 AM  

ghare: I'm no genius but it seems to me the stock market is inflated.

The only problem is where else are you going to put your money?

/I'm trying a house-flipping.


Current  P/Es are at 16.7, a bit below their 10 year average.  It seems like the market is up a bunch, but the financial news stations never use constant dollars, they hate adjusting for inflation.  They want to talk about record highs, not about how we're 200 points away from an inflation-adjusted high on the S&P.
 
2013-11-03 09:13:00 AM  
4.bp.blogspot.com
 
2013-11-03 09:56:56 AM  
Whut?
 
2013-11-03 10:50:10 AM  
[renault-shocked.jpg]

"Financial Analysts" are full of shiat?
 
2013-11-03 10:55:23 AM  
Now is the best time to sell!
 
2013-11-03 10:57:41 AM  

ghare: I'm no genius but it seems to me the stock market is inflated.

The only problem is where else are you going to put your money?

/I'm trying a house-flipping.


Better off playing landlord imo.

Or both.
 
2013-11-03 12:16:29 PM  
"The S&P 500 has breached both the 3- and 4-standard deviation Bollinger bands surrounding the 20-day moving average, thus indicating a sell signal to correct down to the 1,730 or 1,710 or 1,660 or 1,670 area"

Technical analysis is hogwash.
 
2013-11-03 12:19:48 PM  
static5.businessinsider.com
 
2013-11-03 12:46:23 PM  
Smart long term investors never sell, just time their buys. I'm on track for a 20% return for the year. A market turnaround just means an opportunity to buy cheap.
 
2013-11-03 01:06:10 PM  

Arthen: Smart long term investors never sell, just time their buys. I'm on track for a 20% return for the year. A market turnaround just means an opportunity to buy cheap.


Haven't there been a bunch of studies that basically show even professional fund managers fail to out-perform randomly selected stocks bought and held?
 
2013-11-03 02:46:30 PM  

INTERTRON: "The S&P 500 has breached both the 3- and 4-standard deviation Bollinger bands surrounding the 20-day moving average, thus indicating a sell signal to correct down to the 1,730 or 1,710 or 1,660 or 1,670 area"

Technical analysis is hogwash.


Technical analysis works, except when it doesn't.

You think they would realize is clearly bullshat when you get different "signals" based on what completely arbitrary metric your using, i.e. x minute vs y minute candles, x vs y day moving average, etc.
 
2013-11-03 03:10:05 PM  

impaler: INTERTRON: "The S&P 500 has breached both the 3- and 4-standard deviation Bollinger bands surrounding the 20-day moving average, thus indicating a sell signal to correct down to the 1,730 or 1,710 or 1,660 or 1,670 area"

Technical analysis is hogwash.

Technical analysis works, except when it doesn't.

You think they would realize is clearly bullshat when you get different "signals" based on what completely arbitrary metric your using, i.e. x minute vs y minute candles, x vs y day moving average, etc.


I blame computers.  It's really easy for someone who is half clever (and I'd consider myself half clever) to sit down with 10-30 years of historical data and run all sorts of analysis on it.

// Doing it myself for some school project
/// My retarded Fx Trading strategy averaged 11.9% per year, for the last 10 years.
 
2013-11-03 03:18:31 PM  

Fark_Guy_Rob: Arthen: Smart long term investors never sell, just time their buys. I'm on track for a 20% return for the year. A market turnaround just means an opportunity to buy cheap.

Haven't there been a bunch of studies that basically show even professional fund managers fail to out-perform randomly selected stocks bought and held?


It depends on which managers you're talking about; some people claim that professional managers of mutual funds are typically at the mercy of their investors - when the market is down, people panic and pull their money, forcing the manager to sell low, and when the market is up, people want to invest, forcing the manager to buy high. Even though the manager may know better.
 
2013-11-03 07:22:26 PM  
I dumped all but my gun and defense stocks in anticipation that Obamacare will cause a massive clusterfark through the economy.  So far it's been a good decision.  Now all that needs to happen is the massive crash and then it's time to buy faster than Randolph hit the floor
 
2013-11-03 09:20:52 PM  

Smeggy Smurf: I dumped all but my gun and defense stocks in anticipation that Obamacare will cause a massive clusterfark through the economy.  So far it's been a good decision.  Now all that needs to happen is the massive crash and then it's time to buy faster than Randolph hit the floor


Yeah, that reminds me - need to buy more Alcoa.
 
2013-11-03 09:53:31 PM  

Arthen: Smart long term investors never sell, just time their buys. I'm on track for a 20% return for the year. A market turnaround just means an opportunity to buy cheap.


itcamefromschenectady: Fark_Guy_Rob: Arthen: Smart long term investors never sell, just time their buys. I'm on track for a 20% return for the year. A market turnaround just means an opportunity to buy cheap.

Haven't there been a bunch of studies that basically show even professional fund managers fail to out-perform randomly selected stocks bought and held?

It depends on which managers you're talking about; some people claim that professional managers of mutual funds are typically at the mercy of their investors - when the market is down, people panic and pull their money, forcing the manager to sell low, and when the market is up, people want to invest, forcing the manager to buy high. Even though the manager may know better.


Also, isn't this subjective to the fallacy of things only being worth what someone will pay for it?    your stocks are valued at a 20% increase this year, but are their people willing to buy at the 20% increase price?
 
2013-11-04 01:25:19 AM  
I only sell when I need some quick cash to last me through the next 24-16 months. Luckly, I sell to myself, which allows me a loss for the year. except this year.
 
2013-11-04 08:46:06 AM  

INTERTRON: "The S&P 500 has breached both the 3- and 4-standard deviation Bollinger bands surrounding the 20-day moving average, thus indicating a sell signal to correct down to the 1,730 or 1,710 or 1,660 or 1,670 area"

Technical analysis is hogwash.


It absolutely is.  My retired father squandered $200K and is now basically broke because he fancied himself to be a "technical trader".  He would buy and sell based almost exclusively on signals (fibonacci numbers, etc) rather than fundamentals.
 
2013-11-04 11:00:20 AM  

simusid: INTERTRON: "The S&P 500 has breached both the 3- and 4-standard deviation Bollinger bands surrounding the 20-day moving average, thus indicating a sell signal to correct down to the 1,730 or 1,710 or 1,660 or 1,670 area"

Technical analysis is hogwash.

It absolutely is.  My retired father squandered $200K and is now basically broke because he fancied himself to be a "technical trader".  He would buy and sell based almost exclusively on signals (fibonacci numbers, etc) rather than fundamentals.


Fibonacci is for suckers. It is all about the Hilbert Transform.  Without the unwrapped phase of the stock, how can you expect to know anything at all!
 
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