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(Times of Israel)   Ex-IAEA chief says Iran two weeks away from having weapons-grade uranium, Henriksdal chair and Linnmon/Nipen table   (timesofisrael.com) divider line 28
    More: Scary, International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran, Ali Larijani, Tehran, uranium enrichment, Deputy Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Henriksdal, critical level  
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1516 clicks; posted to Main » on 29 Oct 2013 at 11:06 AM (46 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-10-29 02:11:04 PM
4 votes:
For those who are keeping track, here's the Israeli Chicken Little List WRT Iran and the Atomic bomba scare:


1984
: West German intelligence sources claim that Iran's production of a bomb "is entering its final stages." US Senator Alan Cranston claims Iran is seven years away from making a weapon.

1992: Israeli parliamentarian Benjamin Netanyahu tells his colleagues that Iran is 3 to 5 years from being able to produce a nuclear weapon.

1995: The New York Times reports that US and Israeli officials fear "Iran is much closer to producing nuclear weapons than previously thought" - less than five years away. Netanyahu claims the time frame is three to five years.

1996: Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres claims Iran will have nuclear weapons in four years.

1998: Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld claims Iran could build an ICBM capable of reaching the US within five years.

1999: An Israeli military official claims that Iran will have a nuclear weapon within five years.

2001: The Israeli Minister of Defence claims that Iran will be ready to launch a nuclear weapon in less than four years.

2002: The CIA warns that the danger of nuclear weapons from Iran is higher than during the Cold War, because its missile capability has grown more quickly than expected since 2000 - putting it on par with North Korea.

2003: A high-ranking Israeli military officer tells the Knesset that Iran will have the bomb by 2005 - 17 months away.

2006: A State Department official claims that Iran may be capable of building a nuclear weapon in 16 days.

2008: An Israeli general tells the Cabinet that Iran is "half-way" to enriching enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon and will have a working weapon no later than the end of 2010.

2009: Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak estimates that Iran is 6-18 months away from building an operative nuclear weapon.

2010: Israeli decision-makers believe that Iran is at most 1-3 years away from being able to assemble a nuclear weapon.

2011: IAEA report indicates that Iran could build a nuclear weapon within months.

2013
: Israeli intelligence officials claim that Iran could have the bomb by 2015 or 2016

http://opiniojuris.org/2013/01/28/yet-another-estimate-of-when-iran- wi ll-have-the-bomb/
  TODAY: It's just TWO WEEKS, DUDES.


www.vivaart.co.uk


AAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!!!!!!
2013-10-29 11:29:23 AM
4 votes:
Israel has been crying wolf over Iran since before 2000. If they are so damned concerned, they should take action and face the consequences instead of trying to weasel other countries into doing their dirty work.
2013-10-29 03:12:51 PM
3 votes:

Seraphym: IdBeCrazyIf: Seraphym: But, assuming it wasn't, everyone always knows exactly where the material for a nuke came from, and also who assembled it for delivery, even if it was buried and shielded in the hold of a freighter for a month+

Actually thanks to the Nuclear Regulatory folks we know exactly down to the gram how much uranium they have and whether or not they ever get their hands on plutonium. Come on down from that roof man, I got a brew and a xanax for ya.

Oh, you mean the IAEA?  The ones Iran still doesn't have an agreement with and continually frustrates at every turn for trying to get Iran into some sort of international material traceability agreement?

"3 June 2013 - Discussions between the United Nations and Iran on clarifying outstanding issues related to the country's nuclear programme are 'going around in circles,' the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported today
...
Mr. Amano said Iran is not providing the necessary cooperation to enable the IAEA to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities. 'The Agency therefore cannot conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities,' he said."   UN Source

Yeah, we're getting great material accountability from Iran there.

Want to try again?



But we're getting material accountability from Israel - the country that thinks they're exempt from the demands they wish to force on others - right?
2013-10-29 11:48:16 AM
3 votes:
The last thing we want is illegal nukes, right Israel?
2013-10-29 11:09:19 AM
3 votes:
I'm sure it's true this time.
2013-10-29 11:08:57 AM
3 votes:
they been saying this for decades. Israel just getting nervous now that Iran has been saying nicer things
2013-10-29 04:11:28 PM
2 votes:
No, it's not scary, subby. It's just the biweekly  OMG IRAN HAS TEH NOOKS scare article. Nobody cares and nobody should care -- even if they really  are on the verge of getting nukes. One more country joins the nuclear club. BFD.
2013-10-29 11:24:27 AM
2 votes:
Again? Does anyone still take this crap seriously? Seems like the big scary Iranians have been minutes away from destroying the free world for a solid decade.  At this rate, they'll get themselves a viable bomb about 5 minutes before the Sun finally burns the Earth to a crisp.
2013-10-29 10:02:12 AM
2 votes:
Unlikely

This is the same Iran that cannot protect itself from malware

If they can't master something as simple as NOT USING WINDOWS for secure nuclear testing, what else do you think they are shiatty at?
2013-10-29 08:45:04 PM
1 votes:

IdBeCrazyIf: With uranium the only bomb you'll be making is a fission gun type with at best an approximate yield of the bombs dropped over Japan. We have conventional weapons in the US arsenal that almost match that.


One can build an implosion bomb using either U-235 or Pu-239. Only U-235 can be used for a gun type.
2013-10-29 07:37:03 PM
1 votes:

IdBeCrazyIf: With uranium the only bomb you'll be making is a fission gun type with at best an approximate yield of the bombs dropped over Japan. We have conventional weapons in the US arsenal that almost match that.


This is not true. You need about 18kg for a 1st gen implosion type weapon (Nagasaki equivalent) with highly-enriched uranium, versus 6kg of Plutonium. According to the IAEA, the Iran did testing with implosion explosives a decade ago, but Iran argues the experiments were for making nano-diamonds. They brought a guy from Russia over who is an expert in nano-diamonds... but used to be a nuclear weapons designer. No proof they figured it all out though.

You can't make a gun-type bomb with plutonium though because the material is too radioactive and you get a sub-critical blast before the two parts slam together fully.

jakomo002: From TFA:  "But you still don't have a nuclear weapon," Heinonen added. Preparing the highly enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb would take another month or two, "assuming that someone has all the knowledge." After that, assembling an actual nuclear weapon that can be delivered with a ballistic missile would take perhaps another year, he said.


Omigod, "perhaps another year"?!?!   When put into the context of the entirety of human history, that's practically yesterday!!!  It's coming right for us!


Heinonen is not exactly an alarmist. His timeline is fairly accepted. The real debate is whether Iran would want to go nuclear or stay on the brink (like Japan), in the face of sanctions and international isolation. It's basically a question of whether they think they'll get treated like the North Koreans or the Indians.
2013-10-29 03:02:41 PM
1 votes:

IdBeCrazyIf: Seraphym: But, assuming it wasn't, everyone always knows exactly where the material for a nuke came from, and also who assembled it for delivery, even if it was buried and shielded in the hold of a freighter for a month+

Actually thanks to the Nuclear Regulatory folks we know exactly down to the gram how much uranium they have and whether or not they ever get their hands on plutonium. Come on down from that roof man, I got a brew and a xanax for ya.


Oh, you mean the IAEA?  The ones Iran still doesn't have an agreement with and continually frustrates at every turn for trying to get Iran into some sort of international material traceability agreement?

"3 June 2013 - Discussions between the United Nations and Iran on clarifying outstanding issues related to the country's nuclear programme are 'going around in circles,' the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported today
...
Mr. Amano said Iran is not providing the necessary cooperation to enable the IAEA to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities. 'The Agency therefore cannot conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities,' he said."   UN Source

Yeah, we're getting great material accountability from Iran there.

Want to try again?
2013-10-29 02:42:13 PM
1 votes:
whither_apophis
If you want it small enough to actually be deliverable, that takes work.

/we had the advantage of complete air superiority and a huge bomber.
You believe air-mail is the only delivery method?
2013-10-29 02:35:47 PM
1 votes:

jakomo002
2013-10-29 11:23:50 AM


IdBeCrazyIf: Does anyone actually realize how complicated a nuclear weapon is?

With uranium the only bomb you'll be making is a fission gun type with at best an approximate yield of the bombs dropped over Japan. We have conventional weapons in the US arsenal that almost match that.

Fat Man: aprox 21 kt
Little Boy: aprox 16 kt
GBU-43/B (AKA MOAB) : aprox 10 tons


Care to try again?
2013-10-29 02:03:25 PM
1 votes:
The funny thing is, if all the Jews left the US and they could get their 3 billion a year from another source, they wouldn't give a fig if we existed or not.
2013-10-29 12:39:58 PM
1 votes:

IdBeCrazyIf: Does anyone actually realize how complicated a nuclear weapon is?

With uranium the only bomb you'll be making is a fission gun type with at best an approximate yield of the bombs dropped over Japan. We have conventional weapons in the US arsenal that almost match that.



Yeah.. what are they thinking.   That size is worthless.
photos1.blogger.com
2013-10-29 11:45:41 AM
1 votes:

kindms: they been saying this for decades. Israel just getting nervous now that Iran has been saying nicer things


Pretty much. How are they supposed to get free stuff and push around an agenda that would get them into trouble in most parts of the world, without Iran being seen as the ultimate most baddest boogeyman ever. Much better to keep the rhetoric up.
2013-10-29 11:45:30 AM
1 votes:

HotIgneous Intruder: There's no reason the Iranians couldn't cook up a spherical lensed explosive implosion bomb, either. The process is well known and off-the-shelf computing technology would make it a snap. If we could do it in the 40s, they could certainly do it now and it wouldn't be hard to keep a a small working group secret.


Yeah but the problem is implosion bombs require Plutonium, not Uranium. Iran ain't got none ain't gonna have none either. So yeah you are right, everyone needs to get off the roof, take a xanax and calm the fark down.
2013-10-29 11:43:07 AM
1 votes:

whither_apophis: IdBeCrazyIf: Does anyone actually realize how complicated a nuclear weapon is?

With uranium the only bomb you'll be making is a fission gun type with at best an approximate yield of the bombs dropped over Japan. We have conventional weapons in the US arsenal that almost match that.

And we pulled it off using 1940's technonlogy. If you want something to go boom ie the gadget, that's pretty straighforward. If you want it small enough to actually be deliverable, that takes work.

/we had the advantage of complete air superiority and a huge bomber.


There's no reason the Iranians couldn't cook up a spherical lensed explosive implosion bomb, either. The process is well known and off-the-shelf computing technology would make it a snap. If we could do it in the 40s, they could certainly do it now and it wouldn't be hard to keep a a small working group secret.

Only question is, what then?
Do they pop this little firecracker over Israel and risk total obliteration within about an hour's time?
People need to come down off the roof and take their meds.
Neocons only know one song ... the war one.
2013-10-29 11:39:11 AM
1 votes:
If someone's going to destroy the world, I hope they get on with it before I do my Christmas shopping. I don't want to go to the mall if I don't have to.
2013-10-29 11:38:22 AM
1 votes:
Dear Mr. and/or Ms. Submitter,

Your headline appeals to my sense of humor.

I thank you
2013-10-29 11:18:51 AM
1 votes:
img1.imagesbn.com
2013-10-29 11:18:24 AM
1 votes:
Does anyone actually realize how complicated a nuclear weapon is?

With uranium the only bomb you'll be making is a fission gun type with at best an approximate yield of the bombs dropped over Japan. We have conventional weapons in the US arsenal that almost match that.
2013-10-29 11:13:16 AM
1 votes:
What you did there subby, I see it, and I'll beat you up with my new IKEA battle droid... As soon as I can figure out these instructions.. And DAMMIT I'M MISSING A BAG OF WOOD PEGS AND SCREWS!
2013-10-29 11:10:47 AM
1 votes:
"two weeks away" = Two years ago.
2013-10-29 11:07:21 AM
1 votes:
Curse you Hans Brix!
2013-10-29 10:22:56 AM
1 votes:

cman: Unlikely

This is the same Iran that cannot protect itself from malware

If they can't master something as simple as NOT USING WINDOWS for secure nuclear testing, what else do you think they are shiatty at?


Those were Siemens industrial controllers, actually.  And it turns out that no one could protect themselves from Stuxnet - it ended up infecting a metric crapload of them, and not just in Iran.  Yes, a PC was the vector.  As it was in all other infected sites.  Corporations run Windows.
2013-10-29 09:38:34 AM
1 votes:
They will never get a working bomb assembled -- not with those little hex wrenches and plastic fasteners...
 
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