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(Daily Kos)   Turns out deep-red Texas may be blue by as soon as the next mid-term elections   (dailykos.com) divider line 27
    More: Interesting, Battleground Texas, midterm elections, University of Texas-Austin, FreedomWorks, texas gop, Health Care, International, registrars  
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4005 clicks; posted to Politics » on 25 Oct 2013 at 12:48 PM (46 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



Voting Results (Smartest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

2013-10-25 01:24:04 PM
6 votes:
The ghost of Governor Richards gives this a big thumbs up.
2013-10-25 11:23:55 AM
5 votes:
Shane Wright and FreedomWorks are in panic mode. They have finally realized that the movement to turn Texas blue is real. They likely realize that the their voter ID suppression tactics and the new voter suppression tactics against women will not be sufficient.

That's because they didn't think it would also keep republican women from voting too.

/Will be voting for Wendy Davis
2013-10-25 11:36:10 AM
4 votes:

Walker: Donnchadha: Because the politics of Austin are highly representative of the whole state

THIS!

Stopped reading after I saw "Austin" in the headline.


Then you missed the part that Battleground Texas is one pace to register 600,000 new Democrats across the entire state, an acknowledgment that Republicans are "fighting an uphill battle to keep Texas reliably red," and that the quotes and entire Kos piece are based on a post by a blogger from FreedomWorks.
2013-10-25 11:26:13 AM
4 votes:

scottydoesntknow: Shane Wright and FreedomWorks are in panic mode. They have finally realized that the movement to turn Texas blue is real. They likely realize that the their voter ID suppression tactics and the new voter suppression tactics against women will not be sufficient.

That's because they didn't think it would also keep republican women from voting too.

/Will be voting for Wendy Davis


It'll be hilarious if their disenfranchisement ends up costing them the election, because it both motivated Democrats to register early and no Republicans thought to check that it would affect them, because it was meant to affect them.
2013-10-25 12:16:25 PM
3 votes:
probably the single best place for your political donations

1) they are registering voters
2) they are getting the vote out
3) 1 and 2 and the best possible things for a true democracy

that this scares the fark out of red staters is a bonus
2013-10-25 11:27:57 AM
3 votes:
I'll believe it when I see it.  But if it does happen, the disturbance in the herp will be felt throughout the derp.
2013-10-25 02:32:29 PM
2 votes:
Just please vote for Wendy Davis, guys.
2013-10-25 12:43:02 PM
2 votes:
If Austin didn't matter as a voting block, the Republicans wouldn't have had to do this gerrymandering to continue to win elections:

a0.vsoh.com
2013-10-25 11:48:47 AM
2 votes:
I'll believe it when I see it, but I'm thinking by 2020 we'll be solidly purple, leaning blue.

/Go Wendy, Go
2013-10-25 06:46:24 PM
1 votes:

blue_2501: [lh4.googleusercontent.com image 550x316]

As much as I would like for a big permanent swing in politics to happen, let's be realistic here.  Better to understand and educate ourselves about what is going to happen than to delude ourselves into thinking Democrats are suddenly going to win supermajorities both sections of Congress and keep a Democratic president.


The shutdown was 95-96.
2013-10-25 06:43:24 PM
1 votes:
lh4.googleusercontent.com

As much as I would like for a big permanent swing in politics to happen, let's be realistic here.  Better to understand and educate ourselves about what is going to happen than to delude ourselves into thinking Democrats are suddenly going to win supermajorities both sections of Congress and keep a Democratic president.
2013-10-25 02:47:34 PM
1 votes:

tallguywithglasseson: Austin vs. the rest of Texas aside (it was the right-wing Freedomworks guy who wrote the bit about the trip to Austin)

-700k votes in a state with abysmal turnout isn't the razor-thin margin "out of a population of 26 million" implies. It was almost a 16 point margin of victory
-Romney also beat Obama by 16 points
-Registering 600k voters, as Freedomworks says, might make Texas a "battleground state", but doesn't make a reliably blue state, nor lose anything for a generation
-Being 'on pace' to register 600k voters isn't the same as registering 600k voters
-Even if Texas goes back to being more competitive in state-wide elections, that's a far cry from being competitive for a mainstream national Democratic candidate


Austin, El Paso, San Antonio, and the Valley are populous and reliably blue. Houston has a strong Democratic contingent that only grows in power as it becomes more cosmopolitan and the backwards hicks flee to the north and west.

Dallas has its nuggets of entrenched redness (Highland Park), but those fabulous gays and young people are wiring to change it.

Fort Worth and environs will remain firmly red, as will Lubbock/Amarillo.

West Texas will be slowly changing blue as more blue collar workers filter into the oilfields. Only the retirement communities of the Hill Country and the cousinfarkers in East Texas will remain red holdouts.

Laugh all you want, I hate this place and despair of it, but even I can feel the winds of change with the new generation and our demographic shift.
2013-10-25 01:47:33 PM
1 votes:
2016 will be very close for Texas.

2020 it could very well be blue.
2013-10-25 01:37:49 PM
1 votes:

Kyosuke: If Austin didn't matter as a voting block, the Republicans wouldn't have had to do this gerrymandering to continue to win elections:

[a0.vsoh.com image 850x473]


I would like to see a rule for drawing district that you make a square around the proposed district and 50% or more of habitual area contained in that square must be that district.

So the yellow one there and the violet one I think would be ok but the brown one would not be allowed.
2013-10-25 01:35:43 PM
1 votes:
2013-10-25 01:34:41 PM
1 votes:
Well, as an Austinite, I will say that Texas is becoming purple. Will it happen by 2014? Perhaps? Will Wendy Davis win? I really don't know. But I do know that I am voting for her, as well as most of my friends and family, barring some major meltdown on her part.

The reason why the Republicans are in an uproar is not because of Wendy Davis, it's the fact that the GOP is increasingly becoming a regional power with a dwindling demographic base. The GOP needs places that are "Reliably Red". The GOP has expended tremendous amounts of treasure in the last 3 elections (2008, 2010 and 2012) and even when you include the 2010 sweep, have suprisingly little to show for it. In 2014, the Republicans will be on the defensive, and they simply cannot afford, literally, to have to spend tremendous amounts of campaign money in a place they shouldn't have to.

In terms of local strategy, some of the cynical farkers are correct--Wendy Davis will not win and Texas will not go purple until 2020. But as far as national strategy, what's happening here is absolutely gigantic. Pouring millions into Texas means less resources to expend nationally, and considering the financing gap between the GOP and the Democratic party, this may be the straw that breaks the proverbial camel's back.
2013-10-25 01:31:57 PM
1 votes:
Freedom Works, is just mostly saying all the to scary it's people in donating money. That's how the GOP operates.

However I think Dems need to fight more in Texas, if they fight now they can turn it blue sooner rather than later.
2013-10-25 01:13:12 PM
1 votes:
I wouldn't count on it.  Even if Democrats were 65% of the population, Texas would game the districts to make sure Republicans still won most of the seats.

I'm sure the Democrats living there feel just as helpless as I do living here in Georgia.
2013-10-25 12:59:15 PM
1 votes:
Unlikely, but I won't oppose when it actually happens.
2013-10-25 12:55:28 PM
1 votes:
While I think these new publicized voter restrictions could have a backfiring 'get out the vote' effect, similar to what we saw in Florida for the 2012 election, count me amongst those who will believe it when they see it.
2013-10-25 12:55:06 PM
1 votes:

unlikely: That will totally happen. You should totally bank on that.


If Wendy Davis wins the Governor's seat, it's all over for the Republicans in 2016.  That fact alone will scare the living hell out of them.
2013-10-25 12:50:45 PM
1 votes:
speaking as an at least moderately democratic texan, no it wont.

Texas going blue is to politics what reliable nuclear power is to the global energy demand.

Its always 30 years away.
2013-10-25 12:07:37 PM
1 votes:
Austin vs. the rest of Texas aside (it was the right-wing Freedomworks guy who wrote the bit about the trip to Austin)

-700k votes in a state with abysmal turnout isn't the razor-thin margin "out of a population of 26 million" implies. It was almost a 16 point margin of victory
-Romney also beat Obama by 16 points
-Registering 600k voters, as Freedomworks says, might make Texas a "battleground state", but doesn't make a reliably blue state, nor lose anything for a generation
-Being 'on pace' to register 600k voters isn't the same as registering 600k voters
-Even if Texas goes back to being more competitive in state-wide elections, that's a far cry from being competitive for a mainstream national Democratic candidate
2013-10-25 11:46:27 AM
1 votes:
Wendy wins. Legislature stays red but not super majority

Local paper had a story about the right wing in a panic over keeping state red. They see the writing on the wall
2013-10-25 11:42:20 AM
1 votes:
Texas clearly needs more gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement.
2013-10-25 11:29:25 AM
1 votes:

Donnchadha: Because the politics of Austin are highly representative of the whole state


THIS!

Stopped reading after I saw "Austin" in the headline.
2013-10-25 11:24:08 AM
1 votes:
Because the politics of Austin are highly representative of the whole state
 
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