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(Daily Kos)   Turns out deep-red Texas may be blue by as soon as the next mid-term elections   (dailykos.com) divider line 98
    More: Interesting, Battleground Texas, midterm elections, University of Texas-Austin, FreedomWorks, texas gop, Health Care, International, registrars  
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4008 clicks; posted to Politics » on 25 Oct 2013 at 12:48 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-10-25 02:17:32 PM  

Buffalo77: jesdynf, just donate to a charity.  It will do more of an impact.


I appreciate your concern.
 
2013-10-25 02:18:46 PM  

Buffalo77: jesdynf, just donate to a charity.  It will do more of an impact.


huh - it is another login with "77" attached
 
2013-10-25 02:20:53 PM  

Jereco1: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/01/can-democrats-tur n -texas-and-arizona-blue-by-2016/

/ In Nate We Trust


Yeah, Texas is getting bluer, but veeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyy ssslllllooooowwwwlllly.  We are talking 10 years from now before it becomes a true swing state and 20 years before it actually turns blue.  Not gonna happen in 2014 or 2016, although it could matter in a Congressional District or two in Texas (as opposed to statewide).

Now, the net demographic changes nationwide (and in Texas) certainly favor the Democrats in the short, medium, and long terms.  But they certainly won't be enough to flip the House to the Dems all by themselves.
 
2013-10-25 02:31:56 PM  
"I had a conversation with a nationally known Republican consultant yesterday . Here is what he told me: "If Ted Cruz wins the Senate race, Texas will be a purple state in four years." In other words, the tea party is so extreme that even a Democrat might be able to get elected. Does it change anyone's thinking? Probably not. "
http://www.texasmonthly.com/burka-blog/senate-race-could-be-definiti ve

About a year old but rather accurate so far. Was about the battle between Dewhurst and Cruz.
 
2013-10-25 02:32:29 PM  
Just please vote for Wendy Davis, guys.
 
2013-10-25 02:35:37 PM  

verbaltoxin: Infernalist: So, FreedomWorks sends out a 'omfg blue texas booga booga booga' thing to drum up money and support for 2014 and this Kos dude see that and takes it seriously?

lol

More like, "Why is FreedomWorks trying to drum up all this cash for Texas? Aren't Republicans safe there?"

And apparently they're not as safe in TX as they thought.


That's biased thinking.  This thing is just another effort to draw money and support from the yokels.  They do the same thing all over the place, not just in Texas.
 
2013-10-25 02:40:50 PM  
While it likely won't happen till the next decade, losing texas will cause the derp brigade to herp like they've never herped before.
 
2013-10-25 02:47:00 PM  

verbaltoxin: Just please vote for Wendy Davis, guys.


I don't live there. Can I just commit voter fraud by mail?

/I keed NSA. I keed.
 
2013-10-25 02:47:34 PM  

tallguywithglasseson: Austin vs. the rest of Texas aside (it was the right-wing Freedomworks guy who wrote the bit about the trip to Austin)

-700k votes in a state with abysmal turnout isn't the razor-thin margin "out of a population of 26 million" implies. It was almost a 16 point margin of victory
-Romney also beat Obama by 16 points
-Registering 600k voters, as Freedomworks says, might make Texas a "battleground state", but doesn't make a reliably blue state, nor lose anything for a generation
-Being 'on pace' to register 600k voters isn't the same as registering 600k voters
-Even if Texas goes back to being more competitive in state-wide elections, that's a far cry from being competitive for a mainstream national Democratic candidate


Austin, El Paso, San Antonio, and the Valley are populous and reliably blue. Houston has a strong Democratic contingent that only grows in power as it becomes more cosmopolitan and the backwards hicks flee to the north and west.

Dallas has its nuggets of entrenched redness (Highland Park), but those fabulous gays and young people are wiring to change it.

Fort Worth and environs will remain firmly red, as will Lubbock/Amarillo.

West Texas will be slowly changing blue as more blue collar workers filter into the oilfields. Only the retirement communities of the Hill Country and the cousinfarkers in East Texas will remain red holdouts.

Laugh all you want, I hate this place and despair of it, but even I can feel the winds of change with the new generation and our demographic shift.
 
2013-10-25 02:49:03 PM  
The battleground county in Texas, and potentially the US, is Tarrant County. This is the only county with a major city in Texas that is still a Republican stronghold (Fort Worth, home to lots of oil and defense contractors). If you can swing Tarrant, in addition to the continued influx of liberal leaning transplants to the big cities, it is only a matter of time before a Democrat wins a statewide election. At that point, you'll see a huge influx of money from Republican interests, which will decrease their ability to fund their traditional swings states of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Democrats, if they're smart (big task, I know) will sacrifice Texas to keep funding levels at current conditions in those other swing states to maintain an advantage. If they can't win those three swing states, it is completely impossible for them to win a national election (see 2012). Therefore, so Tarrant County goes, so goes the country.
 
2013-10-25 02:52:30 PM  
Oh you are serious?  Allow me to laugh even harder.

/Will vote for Wendy.
//And it will not matter, she has 0 chance of winning.
 
2013-10-25 02:54:31 PM  
I have lived in Texas for a little less than a year and as much as I would love to see this state shift purple, believe me when I say there is no farking way.

These people love guns and they love Jesus, and I don't mean the dude who mows their lawns.

Even the transplants like myself, a lot of them move here specifically because the conservative aspects appeal to them.

It might happen sometime in our lifetimes but certainly not in the next few years.
 
2013-10-25 02:56:05 PM  

orclover: Oh you are serious?  Allow me to laugh even harder.

/Will vote for Wendy.
//And it will not matter, she has 0 chance of winning.


She's running, which means she has a chance. Spread the word to vote.
 
2013-10-25 03:06:18 PM  

Girl From The North Country: verbaltoxin: Just please vote for Wendy Davis, guys.

I don't live there. Can I just commit voter fraud by mail?

/I keed NSA. I keed.


No, you silly, you hire a Mexican to do it for you
 
2013-10-25 03:07:13 PM  
I fervently hope that the Texas Democratic Party runs someone -- anyone -- against Congressman Pete Olson next fall.  NASA's Johnson Space Center is in his district, and he not only voted to shut down the government and put thousands of his constituents out of work, he voted against the agreement that finally reopened it.  To add insult to injury, he bragged about doing so on his Facebook page.  There are a lot of disgruntled civil servants and contractors who would welcome the opportunity to vote him out of office.

/ Support www.battlegroundtexas.com
 
2013-10-25 03:19:00 PM  
Red blood turns blue without oxygen.
 
2013-10-25 03:25:37 PM  

verbaltoxin: Just please vote for Wendy Davis, guys.


We will.
 
2013-10-25 03:26:41 PM  

Negligible: The battleground county in Texas, and potentially the US, is Tarrant County. This is the only county with a major city in Texas that is still a Republican stronghold (Fort Worth, home to lots of oil and defense contractors). If you can swing Tarrant, in addition to the continued influx of liberal leaning transplants to the big cities, it is only a matter of time before a Democrat wins a statewide election. At that point, you'll see a huge influx of money from Republican interests, which will decrease their ability to fund their traditional swings states of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Democrats, if they're smart (big task, I know) will sacrifice Texas to keep funding levels at current conditions in those other swing states to maintain an advantage. If they can't win those three swing states, it is completely impossible for them to win a national election (see 2012). Therefore, so Tarrant County goes, so goes the country.


That would be the case for both parties, wouldn't it... although the Dems could have lost any of the two in 2012, even the two largest ones, and still won (PA = 20, OH = 18, FL = 29, even switching PA and FL gives the Democratic Party 283 EC votes).
 
2013-10-25 03:29:10 PM  
...hell, throw Virginia in there too! Even without FL, OH, and VA, Obama gets 272. And seeing as PA hasn't been red for a president since the 1980s, it's hardly what I'd call one of the "traditional swing states".
 
2013-10-25 03:37:42 PM  
2-10 years too  soon.

I think the very earliest you would see Texas as blue would be the 2016 Presidential election. I think the Democrats will probably win some seats next year but nothing to swing the state to actual blue.
 
2013-10-25 04:05:13 PM  

Negligible: The battleground county in Texas, and potentially the US, is Tarrant County. This is the only county with a major city in Texas that is still a Republican stronghold (Fort Worth, home to lots of oil and defense contractors). If you can swing Tarrant, in addition to the continued influx of liberal leaning transplants to the big cities, it is only a matter of time before a Democrat wins a statewide election. At that point, you'll see a huge influx of money from Republican interests, which will decrease their ability to fund their traditional swings states of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Democrats, if they're smart (big task, I know) will sacrifice Texas to keep funding levels at current conditions in those other swing states to maintain an advantage. If they can't win those three swing states, it is completely impossible for them to win a national election (see 2012). Therefore, so Tarrant County goes, so goes the country.


First of all, Wendy Davis is from Forth Worth. As much as the right demonizes her, she's actually not the liberal firebrand that the GOP wants her to be. The only reason why Wendy Davis is talked about at all is that she stood up to the misogynist lunacy that is the modern Texas Republican party, which is doing wonders to alienate both women and hispanic voters. Wendy Davis dominated in Forth Worth thanks to her ability to reach out to swing voters, especially--get this now--Republican women. (Which are now inintended victims of Texas's voter ID laws, but now that makes sense..)

The one thing you fail to take into account, Negligible, is the fact that Democratic dollars spend more than Republican dollars. Nationally, the Democrats have a much better ground game, while the GOP uses astroturfing tactics. Local efforts allow the Democratic party to spend money far more effectively than the GOP, which bombards voters with big, ineffective Television ads and annoying robocalls, which really don't push swing voters. From what I've seen in Texas, Wendy's ground game is pretty good. That said, the GOP will have considerable home support, but they will have to spend a lot more money in Texas than they usually do. Truth is, if the GOP doesn't take the changing landscape in Texas seriously, they will lose it in 2014.

As far as a national strategy goes, the GOP will outspend the Democratic party in Texas, by a considerable margin. But like I said, the GOP aren't quite used to having to fight for something they are used to taking for free. Furthermore, Republicans who donate to the GOP locally may not have the funds or incentive to donate nationally, and vice versa. This coupled with the very real prospect (Considering Ted Cruz's popularity among Texas Republicans) that the GOP candidate (Abbott) will have to spend millions more to avoid being primaried by Kilgore and Paulken. And the vicious campaign for "Party Purity" and an adherence to the Ted Cruz school of Derp will greatly effect Texas swing voters in the general election against Davis.

The horror for the GOP is that this is a no-win scenario for them. If they lose, they immediately concede Texas as a swing state. If they win, they will have spent millions to secure something that should be a given, and like you said, keeps the GOP from bringing Ohio or Florida into play. In 2008 and 2012, we already know that the GOP can only fund sustained power campaigns in 2 of the big 5 swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Colorado), while the Democrats can fund three. Adding Texas to the list of Swing States greatly affects the national character and scope of the election, one that demographically strongly supports the Democratic party.
 
2013-10-25 04:08:44 PM  

mispelled username: Also of repubs were worried about texas turning blue, they'd be pushing to get rid of winner takes all in the EC. When this happen, you know texas will become blue.


QFT
 
2013-10-25 04:28:48 PM  

Wessoman: The horror for the GOP is that this is a no-win scenario for them. If they lose, they immediately concede Texas as a swing state. If they win, they will have spent millions to secure something that should be a given, and like you said, keeps the GOP from bringing Ohio or Florida into play. In 2008 and 2012, we already know that the GOP can only fund sustained power campaigns in 2 of the big 5 swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Colorado), while the Democrats can fund three. Adding Texas to the list of Swing States greatly affects the national character and scope of the election, one that demographically strongly supports the Democratic party.


It would be one more slam against their baffling ways of appealing only to their bigoted shrinking base.
 
2013-10-25 04:29:33 PM  
I'd love to see Wendy win, but I'm not holding my breath that it's going to happen.  I was actually surprised to see her jump in the race, unless she has something lined up for the likely loss.  Abbot isn't going to be easy to beat.

That being said, I'll still be voting for her, supporting her, and making sure my wife has the chance to vote (her license is up-to-date, she did it the day after we got our marriage certificate).

I'm not expecting to see Texas go blue for a long time, but I'm still hoping it'll happen in my lifetime.
 
2013-10-25 04:31:29 PM  
Wessoman:

The one thing you fail to take into account, Negligible, is the fact that Democratic dollars spend more than Republican dollars. Nationally, the Democrats have a much better ground game, while the GOP uses astroturfing tactics. Local efforts allow the Democratic party to spend money far more effectively than the GOP, which bombards voters with big, ineffective Television ads and annoying robocalls, which really don't push swing voters. From what I've seen i ...


The GOP may also find they don't even have their usual financial resources available to them in the next cycle after Wall Street gets tired of them repeatedly trying to crash the economy.
 
2013-10-25 04:35:22 PM  

Donnchadha: Because the politics of Austin are highly representative of the whole state


Well, the politics of Austin, Houston, San Antonio, El Paso, to be accurate. Ft. Worth is the only metro holdout that is still red.

Plus lowest voter turn out in the nation means there may be more raw material to work with.

It is do-able, with money and organization. That's why they're highlighting it. Trying to counter it with fundraising.
 
2013-10-25 04:38:38 PM  

Darth_Stimpy: / Support www.battlegroundtexas.com


I was worried BGTX was going to be a flash-in-the-pan that didn't really get results, but they seem to be in it for the long haul.  At the very least, the number of voters they've been signing up is a great thing.
 
2013-10-25 05:31:15 PM  
Daily KOS had a similar story back in '05 or so. It didn't happen in 2006 and it won't happen next year.
 
2013-10-25 06:25:34 PM  

beerdini: You mean that this wasn't predicted when they started advertising in places like California and New York for businesses and people to relocate to Texas?


And Maryland.

/scared the cats while yelling "FARK YOU, PERRY!" at the screen
 
2013-10-25 06:28:15 PM  

Corvus: Kyosuke: If Austin didn't matter as a voting block, the Republicans wouldn't have had to do this gerrymandering to continue to win elections:

[a0.vsoh.com image 850x473]

I would like to see a rule for drawing district that you make a square around the proposed district and 50% or more of habitual area contained in that square must be that district.

So the yellow one there and the violet one I think would be ok but the brown one would not be allowed.


The brown one is about 300 miles long. I'd like to see a maximum dimension myself.
 
2013-10-25 06:43:24 PM  
lh4.googleusercontent.com

As much as I would like for a big permanent swing in politics to happen, let's be realistic here.  Better to understand and educate ourselves about what is going to happen than to delude ourselves into thinking Democrats are suddenly going to win supermajorities both sections of Congress and keep a Democratic president.
 
2013-10-25 06:46:24 PM  

blue_2501: [lh4.googleusercontent.com image 550x316]

As much as I would like for a big permanent swing in politics to happen, let's be realistic here.  Better to understand and educate ourselves about what is going to happen than to delude ourselves into thinking Democrats are suddenly going to win supermajorities both sections of Congress and keep a Democratic president.


The shutdown was 95-96.
 
2013-10-25 07:17:09 PM  

doyner: blue_2501: [lh4.googleusercontent.com image 550x316]

As much as I would like for a big permanent swing in politics to happen, let's be realistic here.  Better to understand and educate ourselves about what is going to happen than to delude ourselves into thinking Democrats are suddenly going to win supermajorities both sections of Congress and keep a Democratic president.

The shutdown was 95-96.


Oops.  And it did absol-fraking-lutely NOTHING in the numbers.  It took an impeachment of Clinton to drop the numbers that low.

Still doesn't really change the fact that a dip that severe from the polls is easy to recover from.
 
2013-10-25 08:25:48 PM  
img1.fark.net
 
2013-10-25 08:30:40 PM  

blue_2501: doyner: blue_2501: [lh4.googleusercontent.com image 550x316]

As much as I would like for a big permanent swing in politics to happen, let's be realistic here.  Better to understand and educate ourselves about what is going to happen than to delude ourselves into thinking Democrats are suddenly going to win supermajorities both sections of Congress and keep a Democratic president.

The shutdown was 95-96.

Oops.  And it did absol-fraking-lutely NOTHING in the numbers.  It took an impeachment of Clinton to drop the numbers that low.

Still doesn't really change the fact that a dip that severe from the polls is easy to recover from.


Um, then I wouldn't draw any conclusions.  Last time it didn't move the meter.  This time it plunged.  The situations are different - we'll see in a month.
 
2013-10-25 09:49:59 PM  
Every time one of these threads comes up, we have a bunch of farkers loudly proclaim that it's pointless and that nothing will ever change.  Meanwhile, Democrats in Texas are busting their humps to sign up as many people as possible in the hopes of overwhelming Republican voter suppression efforts.

I know which group I side with.
 
2013-10-25 09:55:52 PM  
Did  the farm bill pass? If not, how soon does the cash run out?
 
2013-10-25 11:42:25 PM  

MadHatter500: Um, then I wouldn't draw any conclusions.  Last time it didn't move the meter.  This time it plunged.  The situations are different - we'll see in a month.


What I'm saying is that a dip like that (the Clinton impeachment) didn't last long at all.  Fine, it wasn't the shutdown there, but it's not going to last.

Mentat: Every time one of these threads comes up, we have a bunch of farkers loudly proclaim that it's pointless and that nothing will ever change.  Meanwhile, Democrats in Texas are busting their humps to sign up as many people as possible in the hopes of overwhelming Republican voter suppression efforts.

I know which group I side with.


I'm just trying to maintain a sense of realism.  Sure, I still support the fight, and I hope I'm wrong.  But, the numbers don't seem to show that right now.

We'll know more in a few more months.
 
2013-10-26 12:09:55 AM  

unlikely: That will totally happen. You should totally bank on that.


If this happens, it is truly a signal for the end of the world.  After 8 years of Obama, anyone who votes for any Democrat should be killed or deported.
 
2013-10-26 12:15:16 AM  

armoredbulldozer: unlikely: That will totally happen. You should totally bank on that.

If this happens, it is truly a signal for the end of the world.  After 8 years of Obama, anyone who votes for any Democrat should be killed or deported.


First things first. We should start with the people who voted for Bush, the worry about .the Obama voters. After all, Bush damaged the country to a much .greater degree.
 
2013-10-26 01:59:46 AM  
Daily Kos... Their reporting is always right down the middle. Without any bias...
 
2013-10-26 02:11:16 AM  
The only way it will happen is if Texas gets blue balls.
 
2013-10-26 04:09:08 AM  
This is only a surprise to out of touch Starbucks libs at places like Daily Kos who assume Republicans are a hegemon run by Darth Vader.

Nope. Southern Democrats are everywhere at the local level, still.
 
2013-10-26 09:28:17 AM  
Here's the deal. Texas has a decent chunk of people that just don't vote typically. When they do, it's usually for Democrats.

The politics in this state have become so toxic that I've seen non-political people talking about action.

It's going to be closer than a lot of people think - high influx of people from out of state (anecdotally I've seen a shiatload of NY and CA plates - more every day) that will trend blue, plus pissed off women, plus increased political energy for Latinos will, for sure, puts THIS election into play.

Likely to win? NO. But it's more possible than winning the lottery. That's saying something for Texas.

Just getting the base revved up is critical. 2020, at the latest, the state flips. In between, hopefully a surprise here or there.

Remember, Richards was losing until Williams opened his mouth. You never know...
 
2013-10-26 01:14:41 PM  

unlikely: That will totally happen. You should totally bank on that.



Yup.  As a Texan, I won't be holding my breath.  I would like to see it happen, but I'm just not seeing it as  very realistic.  Not that soon, anyhow.  In 10-15 years it may be more likely, but now?  Nah.
 
2013-10-26 01:38:25 PM  

soakitincider: texas has some leftist metropolitan areas but the majority of the territory is conservative.


I'm not sure how it is in Texas, but in America it's one vote per person, not one vote per acre.
 
2013-10-26 09:15:33 PM  
I will not only be voting for Wendy, I've already set up a recurring monthly contribution to her election and will be volunteering if I can.
 
2013-10-26 09:43:19 PM  

MadHatter500: blue_2501: doyner: blue_2501: [lh4.googleusercontent.com image 550x316]

As much as I would like for a big permanent swing in politics to happen, let's be realistic here.  Better to understand and educate ourselves about what is going to happen than to delude ourselves into thinking Democrats are suddenly going to win supermajorities both sections of Congress and keep a Democratic president.

The shutdown was 95-96.

Oops.  And it did absol-fraking-lutely NOTHING in the numbers.  It took an impeachment of Clinton to drop the numbers that low.

Still doesn't really change the fact that a dip that severe from the polls is easy to recover from.

Um, then I wouldn't draw any conclusions.  Last time it didn't move the meter.  This time it plunged.  The situations are different - we'll see in a month.


I would also argue that the internet wasn't that big then. With social media, and the fact that everything is recorded and easily accessible online, we can probably see that huge dip stay that way for some time.
 
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