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(Daily Kos)   Turns out deep-red Texas may be blue by as soon as the next mid-term elections   (dailykos.com) divider line 98
    More: Interesting, Battleground Texas, midterm elections, University of Texas-Austin, FreedomWorks, texas gop, Health Care, International, registrars  
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4006 clicks; posted to Politics » on 25 Oct 2013 at 12:48 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



98 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2013-10-25 11:22:07 AM  
That will totally happen. You should totally bank on that.
 
2013-10-25 11:23:55 AM  
Shane Wright and FreedomWorks are in panic mode. They have finally realized that the movement to turn Texas blue is real. They likely realize that the their voter ID suppression tactics and the new voter suppression tactics against women will not be sufficient.

That's because they didn't think it would also keep republican women from voting too.

/Will be voting for Wendy Davis
 
2013-10-25 11:24:08 AM  
Because the politics of Austin are highly representative of the whole state
 
2013-10-25 11:26:13 AM  

scottydoesntknow: Shane Wright and FreedomWorks are in panic mode. They have finally realized that the movement to turn Texas blue is real. They likely realize that the their voter ID suppression tactics and the new voter suppression tactics against women will not be sufficient.

That's because they didn't think it would also keep republican women from voting too.

/Will be voting for Wendy Davis


It'll be hilarious if their disenfranchisement ends up costing them the election, because it both motivated Democrats to register early and no Republicans thought to check that it would affect them, because it was meant to affect them.
 
2013-10-25 11:27:57 AM  
I'll believe it when I see it.  But if it does happen, the disturbance in the herp will be felt throughout the derp.
 
2013-10-25 11:29:25 AM  

Donnchadha: Because the politics of Austin are highly representative of the whole state


THIS!

Stopped reading after I saw "Austin" in the headline.
 
2013-10-25 11:36:10 AM  

Walker: Donnchadha: Because the politics of Austin are highly representative of the whole state

THIS!

Stopped reading after I saw "Austin" in the headline.


Then you missed the part that Battleground Texas is one pace to register 600,000 new Democrats across the entire state, an acknowledgment that Republicans are "fighting an uphill battle to keep Texas reliably red," and that the quotes and entire Kos piece are based on a post by a blogger from FreedomWorks.
 
2013-10-25 11:42:20 AM  
Texas clearly needs more gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement.
 
2013-10-25 11:46:27 AM  
Wendy wins. Legislature stays red but not super majority

Local paper had a story about the right wing in a panic over keeping state red. They see the writing on the wall
 
2013-10-25 11:48:47 AM  
I'll believe it when I see it, but I'm thinking by 2020 we'll be solidly purple, leaning blue.

/Go Wendy, Go
 
2013-10-25 11:48:48 AM  
Come on Republicans, you'd better hop to it and figure out how to suppress those votes!  You know, for freedom!
 
2013-10-25 12:07:37 PM  
Austin vs. the rest of Texas aside (it was the right-wing Freedomworks guy who wrote the bit about the trip to Austin)

-700k votes in a state with abysmal turnout isn't the razor-thin margin "out of a population of 26 million" implies. It was almost a 16 point margin of victory
-Romney also beat Obama by 16 points
-Registering 600k voters, as Freedomworks says, might make Texas a "battleground state", but doesn't make a reliably blue state, nor lose anything for a generation
-Being 'on pace' to register 600k voters isn't the same as registering 600k voters
-Even if Texas goes back to being more competitive in state-wide elections, that's a far cry from being competitive for a mainstream national Democratic candidate
 
2013-10-25 12:16:25 PM  
probably the single best place for your political donations

1) they are registering voters
2) they are getting the vote out
3) 1 and 2 and the best possible things for a true democracy

that this scares the fark out of red staters is a bonus
 
2013-10-25 12:43:02 PM  
If Austin didn't matter as a voting block, the Republicans wouldn't have had to do this gerrymandering to continue to win elections:

a0.vsoh.com
 
2013-10-25 12:50:45 PM  
speaking as an at least moderately democratic texan, no it wont.

Texas going blue is to politics what reliable nuclear power is to the global energy demand.

Its always 30 years away.
 
2013-10-25 12:52:26 PM  
It's a bit ambitious to think this will happen that soon. Maybe in 20 years. An optimistic estimate would suggest 2020 would be the first real chance for making Democratic gains in the state, with a popular Democratic president winning the election and the shifting demographics having had time to do their work before the next census re-gerrymandering.
 
2013-10-25 12:55:06 PM  

unlikely: That will totally happen. You should totally bank on that.


If Wendy Davis wins the Governor's seat, it's all over for the Republicans in 2016.  That fact alone will scare the living hell out of them.
 
2013-10-25 12:55:28 PM  
While I think these new publicized voter restrictions could have a backfiring 'get out the vote' effect, similar to what we saw in Florida for the 2012 election, count me amongst those who will believe it when they see it.
 
2013-10-25 12:57:11 PM  
It's a nice story and will get Battleground Texas some more visibility...and funding.
 
2013-10-25 12:59:15 PM  
Unlikely, but I won't oppose when it actually happens.
 
2013-10-25 01:01:38 PM  
I want to see Wendy Davis naked.
 
2013-10-25 01:13:12 PM  
I wouldn't count on it.  Even if Democrats were 65% of the population, Texas would game the districts to make sure Republicans still won most of the seats.

I'm sure the Democrats living there feel just as helpless as I do living here in Georgia.
 
2013-10-25 01:19:09 PM  

Barry Lyndon's Annuity Cheque: scottydoesntknow: Shane Wright and FreedomWorks are in panic mode. They have finally realized that the movement to turn Texas blue is real. They likely realize that the their voter ID suppression tactics and the new voter suppression tactics against women will not be sufficient.

That's because they didn't think it would also keep republican women from voting too.

/Will be voting for Wendy Davis

It'll be hilarious if their disenfranchisement ends up costing them the election, because it both motivated Democrats to register early and no Republicans thought to check that it would affect them, because it was meant to affect them.


doesn't affect older white male population: it doesn't affect them
 
2013-10-25 01:19:41 PM  
I'm sitting back and waiting. I wouldn't expect Texas to become purple until at least 2020.
 
2013-10-25 01:19:48 PM  
People dont live forever
 
2013-10-25 01:24:04 PM  
The ghost of Governor Richards gives this a big thumbs up.
 
2013-10-25 01:25:46 PM  
Also of repubs were worried about texas turning blue, they'd be pushing to get rid of winner takes all in the EC. When this happen, you know texas will become blue.
 
2013-10-25 01:27:21 PM  

Virulency: doesn't affect older white male population: it doesn't affect them


It affects their Republican wives.
 
2013-10-25 01:30:49 PM  
I remember another poster here saying something to the effect that the Texas good ol' boys won't let the state go blue.  I think that's about right.  The moment that happens, Republicans won't win another presidential election again, and they know that.
 
2013-10-25 01:30:53 PM  
Oh, Teddy boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling
From glen to glen, and down the mountain side
The summer's gone, and all the flow'rs are dying
'Tis you, 'tis you must go and I must bide.

But come ye back when summer's in the meadow
Or when the valley's hushed and white with snow
'Tis I'll be here in sunshine or in shadow
Oh, Teddy boy, oh, Teddy boy, I love you so.
 
2013-10-25 01:31:38 PM  

Walker: Stopped reading after I saw "Austin" in the headline.


By all means.  Please remain ignorant of this operation.
 
2013-10-25 01:31:51 PM  
Those cowboys ain't coming out of the closet until their wives throw them out.
 
2013-10-25 01:31:57 PM  
Freedom Works, is just mostly saying all the to scary it's people in donating money. That's how the GOP operates.

However I think Dems need to fight more in Texas, if they fight now they can turn it blue sooner rather than later.
 
2013-10-25 01:34:41 PM  
Well, as an Austinite, I will say that Texas is becoming purple. Will it happen by 2014? Perhaps? Will Wendy Davis win? I really don't know. But I do know that I am voting for her, as well as most of my friends and family, barring some major meltdown on her part.

The reason why the Republicans are in an uproar is not because of Wendy Davis, it's the fact that the GOP is increasingly becoming a regional power with a dwindling demographic base. The GOP needs places that are "Reliably Red". The GOP has expended tremendous amounts of treasure in the last 3 elections (2008, 2010 and 2012) and even when you include the 2010 sweep, have suprisingly little to show for it. In 2014, the Republicans will be on the defensive, and they simply cannot afford, literally, to have to spend tremendous amounts of campaign money in a place they shouldn't have to.

In terms of local strategy, some of the cynical farkers are correct--Wendy Davis will not win and Texas will not go purple until 2020. But as far as national strategy, what's happening here is absolutely gigantic. Pouring millions into Texas means less resources to expend nationally, and considering the financing gap between the GOP and the Democratic party, this may be the straw that breaks the proverbial camel's back.
 
2013-10-25 01:35:43 PM  
 
2013-10-25 01:35:47 PM  

Barry Lyndon's Annuity Cheque: It'll be hilarious if their disenfranchisement ends up costing them the election, because it both motivated Democrats to register early and no Republicans thought to check that it would affect them, because it was meant to affect them.


Wouldn't surprise me. Literally nothing they do is based on fact or logic; it's all based on how they "feel" and the "truthy facts" their media endlessly parrot. So for them to make a critical blunder based on what they "thought" is expected.
 
2013-10-25 01:36:46 PM  

theinsultabot9000: speaking as an at least moderately democratic texan, no it wont.
Texas going blue is to politics what reliable nuclear power is to the global energy demand.
Its always 30 years away.


Yeah, but isn't it fun to watch Republicans shiatting a brick over the possibility.
 
2013-10-25 01:37:49 PM  

Kyosuke: If Austin didn't matter as a voting block, the Republicans wouldn't have had to do this gerrymandering to continue to win elections:

[a0.vsoh.com image 850x473]


I would like to see a rule for drawing district that you make a square around the proposed district and 50% or more of habitual area contained in that square must be that district.

So the yellow one there and the violet one I think would be ok but the brown one would not be allowed.
 
2013-10-25 01:41:41 PM  

HooskerDoo: I want to see Wendy Davis naked.


You're welcome [probably nsfw]
 
2013-10-25 01:42:34 PM  

mispelled username: Also of repubs were worried about texas turning blue, they'd be pushing to get rid of winner takes all in the EC. When this happen, you know texas will become blue.


They've got plenty of time to switch if it becomes necessary, i.e. the Democratic candidate has a decent chance of winning Texas; the last thing they'd want to do is deprive the Republican candidate of a goodly chunk of Texas's EV. At the very least, they'd want to wait until the state legislature that will be in place during 2016 is seated so it can't be undone legislatively.
 
2013-10-25 01:44:24 PM  
texas has some leftist metropolitan areas but the majority of the territory is conservative. The rate of immigration into texas however could change the political demographic; people leaving their shiatty states to come to texas where the economy is strong could end up turning it into their previously-left shiatty state.
 
2013-10-25 01:45:32 PM  

doyner: I'll believe it when I see it.  But if it does happen, the disturbance in the herp will be felt throughout the derp.


in all seriousness
in memory of every election night i've stayed up for going back to ...well, never mind
i'd weep if i watched this happen
great big tears of relief and amazement
 
2013-10-25 01:47:33 PM  
2016 will be very close for Texas.

2020 it could very well be blue.
 
2013-10-25 01:52:00 PM  
So, FreedomWorks sends out a 'omfg blue texas booga booga booga' thing to drum up money and support for 2014 and this Kos dude see that and takes it seriously?

lol
 
2013-10-25 01:55:29 PM  

Barry Lyndon's Annuity Cheque: Walker: Donnchadha: Because the politics of Austin are highly representative of the whole state

THIS!

Stopped reading after I saw "Austin" in the headline.

Then you missed the part that Battleground Texas is one pace to register 600,000 new Democrats across the entire state, an acknowledgment that Republicans are "fighting an uphill battle to keep Texas reliably red," and that the quotes and entire Kos piece are based on a post by a blogger from FreedomWorks.


Let them have their delusion.  Now chant with me:

They are totally right.
Nothing will ever change.
Go back to sleeep.
Nothing to see here.
Ignore that torrent of new voter registrations.
Will never overcome the wall of red.
Gooo baaack tooo sleeeep.
That blogger doesn't know anything.
 
2013-10-25 01:56:14 PM  
I've already written Davis a check, and if I see a strong ground game I'll write another.
 
2013-10-25 02:05:50 PM  
jesdynf, just donate to a charity.  It will do more of an impact.
 
2013-10-25 02:07:14 PM  
You mean that this wasn't predicted when they started advertising in places like California and New York for businesses and people to relocate to Texas?
 
2013-10-25 02:08:35 PM  

Infernalist: So, FreedomWorks sends out a 'omfg blue texas booga booga booga' thing to drum up money and support for 2014 and this Kos dude see that and takes it seriously?

lol


More like, "Why is FreedomWorks trying to drum up all this cash for Texas? Aren't Republicans safe there?"

And apparently they're not as safe in TX as they thought.
 
2013-10-25 02:12:36 PM  

Skleenar: HooskerDoo: I want to see Wendy Davis naked.

You're welcome [probably nsfw]


It's okay, there's no scandalous evidence here. Sigh...
 
2013-10-25 02:17:32 PM  

Buffalo77: jesdynf, just donate to a charity.  It will do more of an impact.


I appreciate your concern.
 
2013-10-25 02:18:46 PM  

Buffalo77: jesdynf, just donate to a charity.  It will do more of an impact.


huh - it is another login with "77" attached
 
2013-10-25 02:20:53 PM  

Jereco1: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/01/can-democrats-tur n -texas-and-arizona-blue-by-2016/

/ In Nate We Trust


Yeah, Texas is getting bluer, but veeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyyy ssslllllooooowwwwlllly.  We are talking 10 years from now before it becomes a true swing state and 20 years before it actually turns blue.  Not gonna happen in 2014 or 2016, although it could matter in a Congressional District or two in Texas (as opposed to statewide).

Now, the net demographic changes nationwide (and in Texas) certainly favor the Democrats in the short, medium, and long terms.  But they certainly won't be enough to flip the House to the Dems all by themselves.
 
2013-10-25 02:31:56 PM  
"I had a conversation with a nationally known Republican consultant yesterday . Here is what he told me: "If Ted Cruz wins the Senate race, Texas will be a purple state in four years." In other words, the tea party is so extreme that even a Democrat might be able to get elected. Does it change anyone's thinking? Probably not. "
http://www.texasmonthly.com/burka-blog/senate-race-could-be-definiti ve

About a year old but rather accurate so far. Was about the battle between Dewhurst and Cruz.
 
2013-10-25 02:32:29 PM  
Just please vote for Wendy Davis, guys.
 
2013-10-25 02:35:37 PM  

verbaltoxin: Infernalist: So, FreedomWorks sends out a 'omfg blue texas booga booga booga' thing to drum up money and support for 2014 and this Kos dude see that and takes it seriously?

lol

More like, "Why is FreedomWorks trying to drum up all this cash for Texas? Aren't Republicans safe there?"

And apparently they're not as safe in TX as they thought.


That's biased thinking.  This thing is just another effort to draw money and support from the yokels.  They do the same thing all over the place, not just in Texas.
 
2013-10-25 02:40:50 PM  
While it likely won't happen till the next decade, losing texas will cause the derp brigade to herp like they've never herped before.
 
2013-10-25 02:47:00 PM  

verbaltoxin: Just please vote for Wendy Davis, guys.


I don't live there. Can I just commit voter fraud by mail?

/I keed NSA. I keed.
 
2013-10-25 02:47:34 PM  

tallguywithglasseson: Austin vs. the rest of Texas aside (it was the right-wing Freedomworks guy who wrote the bit about the trip to Austin)

-700k votes in a state with abysmal turnout isn't the razor-thin margin "out of a population of 26 million" implies. It was almost a 16 point margin of victory
-Romney also beat Obama by 16 points
-Registering 600k voters, as Freedomworks says, might make Texas a "battleground state", but doesn't make a reliably blue state, nor lose anything for a generation
-Being 'on pace' to register 600k voters isn't the same as registering 600k voters
-Even if Texas goes back to being more competitive in state-wide elections, that's a far cry from being competitive for a mainstream national Democratic candidate


Austin, El Paso, San Antonio, and the Valley are populous and reliably blue. Houston has a strong Democratic contingent that only grows in power as it becomes more cosmopolitan and the backwards hicks flee to the north and west.

Dallas has its nuggets of entrenched redness (Highland Park), but those fabulous gays and young people are wiring to change it.

Fort Worth and environs will remain firmly red, as will Lubbock/Amarillo.

West Texas will be slowly changing blue as more blue collar workers filter into the oilfields. Only the retirement communities of the Hill Country and the cousinfarkers in East Texas will remain red holdouts.

Laugh all you want, I hate this place and despair of it, but even I can feel the winds of change with the new generation and our demographic shift.
 
2013-10-25 02:49:03 PM  
The battleground county in Texas, and potentially the US, is Tarrant County. This is the only county with a major city in Texas that is still a Republican stronghold (Fort Worth, home to lots of oil and defense contractors). If you can swing Tarrant, in addition to the continued influx of liberal leaning transplants to the big cities, it is only a matter of time before a Democrat wins a statewide election. At that point, you'll see a huge influx of money from Republican interests, which will decrease their ability to fund their traditional swings states of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Democrats, if they're smart (big task, I know) will sacrifice Texas to keep funding levels at current conditions in those other swing states to maintain an advantage. If they can't win those three swing states, it is completely impossible for them to win a national election (see 2012). Therefore, so Tarrant County goes, so goes the country.
 
2013-10-25 02:52:30 PM  
Oh you are serious?  Allow me to laugh even harder.

/Will vote for Wendy.
//And it will not matter, she has 0 chance of winning.
 
2013-10-25 02:54:31 PM  
I have lived in Texas for a little less than a year and as much as I would love to see this state shift purple, believe me when I say there is no farking way.

These people love guns and they love Jesus, and I don't mean the dude who mows their lawns.

Even the transplants like myself, a lot of them move here specifically because the conservative aspects appeal to them.

It might happen sometime in our lifetimes but certainly not in the next few years.
 
2013-10-25 02:56:05 PM  

orclover: Oh you are serious?  Allow me to laugh even harder.

/Will vote for Wendy.
//And it will not matter, she has 0 chance of winning.


She's running, which means she has a chance. Spread the word to vote.
 
2013-10-25 03:06:18 PM  

Girl From The North Country: verbaltoxin: Just please vote for Wendy Davis, guys.

I don't live there. Can I just commit voter fraud by mail?

/I keed NSA. I keed.


No, you silly, you hire a Mexican to do it for you
 
2013-10-25 03:07:13 PM  
I fervently hope that the Texas Democratic Party runs someone -- anyone -- against Congressman Pete Olson next fall.  NASA's Johnson Space Center is in his district, and he not only voted to shut down the government and put thousands of his constituents out of work, he voted against the agreement that finally reopened it.  To add insult to injury, he bragged about doing so on his Facebook page.  There are a lot of disgruntled civil servants and contractors who would welcome the opportunity to vote him out of office.

/ Support www.battlegroundtexas.com
 
2013-10-25 03:19:00 PM  
Red blood turns blue without oxygen.
 
2013-10-25 03:25:37 PM  

verbaltoxin: Just please vote for Wendy Davis, guys.


We will.
 
2013-10-25 03:26:41 PM  

Negligible: The battleground county in Texas, and potentially the US, is Tarrant County. This is the only county with a major city in Texas that is still a Republican stronghold (Fort Worth, home to lots of oil and defense contractors). If you can swing Tarrant, in addition to the continued influx of liberal leaning transplants to the big cities, it is only a matter of time before a Democrat wins a statewide election. At that point, you'll see a huge influx of money from Republican interests, which will decrease their ability to fund their traditional swings states of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Democrats, if they're smart (big task, I know) will sacrifice Texas to keep funding levels at current conditions in those other swing states to maintain an advantage. If they can't win those three swing states, it is completely impossible for them to win a national election (see 2012). Therefore, so Tarrant County goes, so goes the country.


That would be the case for both parties, wouldn't it... although the Dems could have lost any of the two in 2012, even the two largest ones, and still won (PA = 20, OH = 18, FL = 29, even switching PA and FL gives the Democratic Party 283 EC votes).
 
2013-10-25 03:29:10 PM  
...hell, throw Virginia in there too! Even without FL, OH, and VA, Obama gets 272. And seeing as PA hasn't been red for a president since the 1980s, it's hardly what I'd call one of the "traditional swing states".
 
2013-10-25 03:37:42 PM  
2-10 years too  soon.

I think the very earliest you would see Texas as blue would be the 2016 Presidential election. I think the Democrats will probably win some seats next year but nothing to swing the state to actual blue.
 
2013-10-25 04:05:13 PM  

Negligible: The battleground county in Texas, and potentially the US, is Tarrant County. This is the only county with a major city in Texas that is still a Republican stronghold (Fort Worth, home to lots of oil and defense contractors). If you can swing Tarrant, in addition to the continued influx of liberal leaning transplants to the big cities, it is only a matter of time before a Democrat wins a statewide election. At that point, you'll see a huge influx of money from Republican interests, which will decrease their ability to fund their traditional swings states of Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Democrats, if they're smart (big task, I know) will sacrifice Texas to keep funding levels at current conditions in those other swing states to maintain an advantage. If they can't win those three swing states, it is completely impossible for them to win a national election (see 2012). Therefore, so Tarrant County goes, so goes the country.


First of all, Wendy Davis is from Forth Worth. As much as the right demonizes her, she's actually not the liberal firebrand that the GOP wants her to be. The only reason why Wendy Davis is talked about at all is that she stood up to the misogynist lunacy that is the modern Texas Republican party, which is doing wonders to alienate both women and hispanic voters. Wendy Davis dominated in Forth Worth thanks to her ability to reach out to swing voters, especially--get this now--Republican women. (Which are now inintended victims of Texas's voter ID laws, but now that makes sense..)

The one thing you fail to take into account, Negligible, is the fact that Democratic dollars spend more than Republican dollars. Nationally, the Democrats have a much better ground game, while the GOP uses astroturfing tactics. Local efforts allow the Democratic party to spend money far more effectively than the GOP, which bombards voters with big, ineffective Television ads and annoying robocalls, which really don't push swing voters. From what I've seen in Texas, Wendy's ground game is pretty good. That said, the GOP will have considerable home support, but they will have to spend a lot more money in Texas than they usually do. Truth is, if the GOP doesn't take the changing landscape in Texas seriously, they will lose it in 2014.

As far as a national strategy goes, the GOP will outspend the Democratic party in Texas, by a considerable margin. But like I said, the GOP aren't quite used to having to fight for something they are used to taking for free. Furthermore, Republicans who donate to the GOP locally may not have the funds or incentive to donate nationally, and vice versa. This coupled with the very real prospect (Considering Ted Cruz's popularity among Texas Republicans) that the GOP candidate (Abbott) will have to spend millions more to avoid being primaried by Kilgore and Paulken. And the vicious campaign for "Party Purity" and an adherence to the Ted Cruz school of Derp will greatly effect Texas swing voters in the general election against Davis.

The horror for the GOP is that this is a no-win scenario for them. If they lose, they immediately concede Texas as a swing state. If they win, they will have spent millions to secure something that should be a given, and like you said, keeps the GOP from bringing Ohio or Florida into play. In 2008 and 2012, we already know that the GOP can only fund sustained power campaigns in 2 of the big 5 swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Colorado), while the Democrats can fund three. Adding Texas to the list of Swing States greatly affects the national character and scope of the election, one that demographically strongly supports the Democratic party.
 
2013-10-25 04:08:44 PM  

mispelled username: Also of repubs were worried about texas turning blue, they'd be pushing to get rid of winner takes all in the EC. When this happen, you know texas will become blue.


QFT
 
2013-10-25 04:28:48 PM  

Wessoman: The horror for the GOP is that this is a no-win scenario for them. If they lose, they immediately concede Texas as a swing state. If they win, they will have spent millions to secure something that should be a given, and like you said, keeps the GOP from bringing Ohio or Florida into play. In 2008 and 2012, we already know that the GOP can only fund sustained power campaigns in 2 of the big 5 swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Colorado), while the Democrats can fund three. Adding Texas to the list of Swing States greatly affects the national character and scope of the election, one that demographically strongly supports the Democratic party.


It would be one more slam against their baffling ways of appealing only to their bigoted shrinking base.
 
2013-10-25 04:29:33 PM  
I'd love to see Wendy win, but I'm not holding my breath that it's going to happen.  I was actually surprised to see her jump in the race, unless she has something lined up for the likely loss.  Abbot isn't going to be easy to beat.

That being said, I'll still be voting for her, supporting her, and making sure my wife has the chance to vote (her license is up-to-date, she did it the day after we got our marriage certificate).

I'm not expecting to see Texas go blue for a long time, but I'm still hoping it'll happen in my lifetime.
 
2013-10-25 04:31:29 PM  
Wessoman:

The one thing you fail to take into account, Negligible, is the fact that Democratic dollars spend more than Republican dollars. Nationally, the Democrats have a much better ground game, while the GOP uses astroturfing tactics. Local efforts allow the Democratic party to spend money far more effectively than the GOP, which bombards voters with big, ineffective Television ads and annoying robocalls, which really don't push swing voters. From what I've seen i ...


The GOP may also find they don't even have their usual financial resources available to them in the next cycle after Wall Street gets tired of them repeatedly trying to crash the economy.
 
2013-10-25 04:35:22 PM  

Donnchadha: Because the politics of Austin are highly representative of the whole state


Well, the politics of Austin, Houston, San Antonio, El Paso, to be accurate. Ft. Worth is the only metro holdout that is still red.

Plus lowest voter turn out in the nation means there may be more raw material to work with.

It is do-able, with money and organization. That's why they're highlighting it. Trying to counter it with fundraising.
 
2013-10-25 04:38:38 PM  

Darth_Stimpy: / Support www.battlegroundtexas.com


I was worried BGTX was going to be a flash-in-the-pan that didn't really get results, but they seem to be in it for the long haul.  At the very least, the number of voters they've been signing up is a great thing.
 
2013-10-25 05:31:15 PM  
Daily KOS had a similar story back in '05 or so. It didn't happen in 2006 and it won't happen next year.
 
2013-10-25 06:25:34 PM  

beerdini: You mean that this wasn't predicted when they started advertising in places like California and New York for businesses and people to relocate to Texas?


And Maryland.

/scared the cats while yelling "FARK YOU, PERRY!" at the screen
 
2013-10-25 06:28:15 PM  

Corvus: Kyosuke: If Austin didn't matter as a voting block, the Republicans wouldn't have had to do this gerrymandering to continue to win elections:

[a0.vsoh.com image 850x473]

I would like to see a rule for drawing district that you make a square around the proposed district and 50% or more of habitual area contained in that square must be that district.

So the yellow one there and the violet one I think would be ok but the brown one would not be allowed.


The brown one is about 300 miles long. I'd like to see a maximum dimension myself.
 
2013-10-25 06:43:24 PM  
lh4.googleusercontent.com

As much as I would like for a big permanent swing in politics to happen, let's be realistic here.  Better to understand and educate ourselves about what is going to happen than to delude ourselves into thinking Democrats are suddenly going to win supermajorities both sections of Congress and keep a Democratic president.
 
2013-10-25 06:46:24 PM  

blue_2501: [lh4.googleusercontent.com image 550x316]

As much as I would like for a big permanent swing in politics to happen, let's be realistic here.  Better to understand and educate ourselves about what is going to happen than to delude ourselves into thinking Democrats are suddenly going to win supermajorities both sections of Congress and keep a Democratic president.


The shutdown was 95-96.
 
2013-10-25 07:17:09 PM  

doyner: blue_2501: [lh4.googleusercontent.com image 550x316]

As much as I would like for a big permanent swing in politics to happen, let's be realistic here.  Better to understand and educate ourselves about what is going to happen than to delude ourselves into thinking Democrats are suddenly going to win supermajorities both sections of Congress and keep a Democratic president.

The shutdown was 95-96.


Oops.  And it did absol-fraking-lutely NOTHING in the numbers.  It took an impeachment of Clinton to drop the numbers that low.

Still doesn't really change the fact that a dip that severe from the polls is easy to recover from.
 
2013-10-25 08:25:48 PM  
img1.fark.net
 
2013-10-25 08:30:40 PM  

blue_2501: doyner: blue_2501: [lh4.googleusercontent.com image 550x316]

As much as I would like for a big permanent swing in politics to happen, let's be realistic here.  Better to understand and educate ourselves about what is going to happen than to delude ourselves into thinking Democrats are suddenly going to win supermajorities both sections of Congress and keep a Democratic president.

The shutdown was 95-96.

Oops.  And it did absol-fraking-lutely NOTHING in the numbers.  It took an impeachment of Clinton to drop the numbers that low.

Still doesn't really change the fact that a dip that severe from the polls is easy to recover from.


Um, then I wouldn't draw any conclusions.  Last time it didn't move the meter.  This time it plunged.  The situations are different - we'll see in a month.
 
2013-10-25 09:49:59 PM  
Every time one of these threads comes up, we have a bunch of farkers loudly proclaim that it's pointless and that nothing will ever change.  Meanwhile, Democrats in Texas are busting their humps to sign up as many people as possible in the hopes of overwhelming Republican voter suppression efforts.

I know which group I side with.
 
2013-10-25 09:55:52 PM  
Did  the farm bill pass? If not, how soon does the cash run out?
 
2013-10-25 11:42:25 PM  

MadHatter500: Um, then I wouldn't draw any conclusions.  Last time it didn't move the meter.  This time it plunged.  The situations are different - we'll see in a month.


What I'm saying is that a dip like that (the Clinton impeachment) didn't last long at all.  Fine, it wasn't the shutdown there, but it's not going to last.

Mentat: Every time one of these threads comes up, we have a bunch of farkers loudly proclaim that it's pointless and that nothing will ever change.  Meanwhile, Democrats in Texas are busting their humps to sign up as many people as possible in the hopes of overwhelming Republican voter suppression efforts.

I know which group I side with.


I'm just trying to maintain a sense of realism.  Sure, I still support the fight, and I hope I'm wrong.  But, the numbers don't seem to show that right now.

We'll know more in a few more months.
 
2013-10-26 12:09:55 AM  

unlikely: That will totally happen. You should totally bank on that.


If this happens, it is truly a signal for the end of the world.  After 8 years of Obama, anyone who votes for any Democrat should be killed or deported.
 
2013-10-26 12:15:16 AM  

armoredbulldozer: unlikely: That will totally happen. You should totally bank on that.

If this happens, it is truly a signal for the end of the world.  After 8 years of Obama, anyone who votes for any Democrat should be killed or deported.


First things first. We should start with the people who voted for Bush, the worry about .the Obama voters. After all, Bush damaged the country to a much .greater degree.
 
2013-10-26 01:59:46 AM  
Daily Kos... Their reporting is always right down the middle. Without any bias...
 
2013-10-26 02:11:16 AM  
The only way it will happen is if Texas gets blue balls.
 
2013-10-26 04:09:08 AM  
This is only a surprise to out of touch Starbucks libs at places like Daily Kos who assume Republicans are a hegemon run by Darth Vader.

Nope. Southern Democrats are everywhere at the local level, still.
 
2013-10-26 09:28:17 AM  
Here's the deal. Texas has a decent chunk of people that just don't vote typically. When they do, it's usually for Democrats.

The politics in this state have become so toxic that I've seen non-political people talking about action.

It's going to be closer than a lot of people think - high influx of people from out of state (anecdotally I've seen a shiatload of NY and CA plates - more every day) that will trend blue, plus pissed off women, plus increased political energy for Latinos will, for sure, puts THIS election into play.

Likely to win? NO. But it's more possible than winning the lottery. That's saying something for Texas.

Just getting the base revved up is critical. 2020, at the latest, the state flips. In between, hopefully a surprise here or there.

Remember, Richards was losing until Williams opened his mouth. You never know...
 
2013-10-26 01:14:41 PM  

unlikely: That will totally happen. You should totally bank on that.



Yup.  As a Texan, I won't be holding my breath.  I would like to see it happen, but I'm just not seeing it as  very realistic.  Not that soon, anyhow.  In 10-15 years it may be more likely, but now?  Nah.
 
2013-10-26 01:38:25 PM  

soakitincider: texas has some leftist metropolitan areas but the majority of the territory is conservative.


I'm not sure how it is in Texas, but in America it's one vote per person, not one vote per acre.
 
2013-10-26 09:15:33 PM  
I will not only be voting for Wendy, I've already set up a recurring monthly contribution to her election and will be volunteering if I can.
 
2013-10-26 09:43:19 PM  

MadHatter500: blue_2501: doyner: blue_2501: [lh4.googleusercontent.com image 550x316]

As much as I would like for a big permanent swing in politics to happen, let's be realistic here.  Better to understand and educate ourselves about what is going to happen than to delude ourselves into thinking Democrats are suddenly going to win supermajorities both sections of Congress and keep a Democratic president.

The shutdown was 95-96.

Oops.  And it did absol-fraking-lutely NOTHING in the numbers.  It took an impeachment of Clinton to drop the numbers that low.

Still doesn't really change the fact that a dip that severe from the polls is easy to recover from.

Um, then I wouldn't draw any conclusions.  Last time it didn't move the meter.  This time it plunged.  The situations are different - we'll see in a month.


I would also argue that the internet wasn't that big then. With social media, and the fact that everything is recorded and easily accessible online, we can probably see that huge dip stay that way for some time.
 
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