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(Daily Kos)   Turns out deep-red Texas may be blue by as soon as the next mid-term elections   (dailykos.com) divider line 98
    More: Interesting, Battleground Texas, midterm elections, University of Texas-Austin, FreedomWorks, texas gop, Health Care, International, registrars  
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4005 clicks; posted to Politics » on 25 Oct 2013 at 12:48 PM (37 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-10-25 11:22:07 AM
That will totally happen. You should totally bank on that.
 
2013-10-25 11:23:55 AM
Shane Wright and FreedomWorks are in panic mode. They have finally realized that the movement to turn Texas blue is real. They likely realize that the their voter ID suppression tactics and the new voter suppression tactics against women will not be sufficient.

That's because they didn't think it would also keep republican women from voting too.

/Will be voting for Wendy Davis
 
2013-10-25 11:24:08 AM
Because the politics of Austin are highly representative of the whole state
 
2013-10-25 11:26:13 AM

scottydoesntknow: Shane Wright and FreedomWorks are in panic mode. They have finally realized that the movement to turn Texas blue is real. They likely realize that the their voter ID suppression tactics and the new voter suppression tactics against women will not be sufficient.

That's because they didn't think it would also keep republican women from voting too.

/Will be voting for Wendy Davis


It'll be hilarious if their disenfranchisement ends up costing them the election, because it both motivated Democrats to register early and no Republicans thought to check that it would affect them, because it was meant to affect them.
 
2013-10-25 11:27:57 AM
I'll believe it when I see it.  But if it does happen, the disturbance in the herp will be felt throughout the derp.
 
2013-10-25 11:29:25 AM

Donnchadha: Because the politics of Austin are highly representative of the whole state


THIS!

Stopped reading after I saw "Austin" in the headline.
 
2013-10-25 11:36:10 AM

Walker: Donnchadha: Because the politics of Austin are highly representative of the whole state

THIS!

Stopped reading after I saw "Austin" in the headline.


Then you missed the part that Battleground Texas is one pace to register 600,000 new Democrats across the entire state, an acknowledgment that Republicans are "fighting an uphill battle to keep Texas reliably red," and that the quotes and entire Kos piece are based on a post by a blogger from FreedomWorks.
 
2013-10-25 11:42:20 AM
Texas clearly needs more gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement.
 
2013-10-25 11:46:27 AM
Wendy wins. Legislature stays red but not super majority

Local paper had a story about the right wing in a panic over keeping state red. They see the writing on the wall
 
2013-10-25 11:48:47 AM
I'll believe it when I see it, but I'm thinking by 2020 we'll be solidly purple, leaning blue.

/Go Wendy, Go
 
2013-10-25 11:48:48 AM
Come on Republicans, you'd better hop to it and figure out how to suppress those votes!  You know, for freedom!
 
2013-10-25 12:07:37 PM
Austin vs. the rest of Texas aside (it was the right-wing Freedomworks guy who wrote the bit about the trip to Austin)

-700k votes in a state with abysmal turnout isn't the razor-thin margin "out of a population of 26 million" implies. It was almost a 16 point margin of victory
-Romney also beat Obama by 16 points
-Registering 600k voters, as Freedomworks says, might make Texas a "battleground state", but doesn't make a reliably blue state, nor lose anything for a generation
-Being 'on pace' to register 600k voters isn't the same as registering 600k voters
-Even if Texas goes back to being more competitive in state-wide elections, that's a far cry from being competitive for a mainstream national Democratic candidate
 
2013-10-25 12:16:25 PM
probably the single best place for your political donations

1) they are registering voters
2) they are getting the vote out
3) 1 and 2 and the best possible things for a true democracy

that this scares the fark out of red staters is a bonus
 
2013-10-25 12:43:02 PM
If Austin didn't matter as a voting block, the Republicans wouldn't have had to do this gerrymandering to continue to win elections:

a0.vsoh.com
 
2013-10-25 12:50:45 PM
speaking as an at least moderately democratic texan, no it wont.

Texas going blue is to politics what reliable nuclear power is to the global energy demand.

Its always 30 years away.
 
2013-10-25 12:52:26 PM
It's a bit ambitious to think this will happen that soon. Maybe in 20 years. An optimistic estimate would suggest 2020 would be the first real chance for making Democratic gains in the state, with a popular Democratic president winning the election and the shifting demographics having had time to do their work before the next census re-gerrymandering.
 
2013-10-25 12:55:06 PM

unlikely: That will totally happen. You should totally bank on that.


If Wendy Davis wins the Governor's seat, it's all over for the Republicans in 2016.  That fact alone will scare the living hell out of them.
 
2013-10-25 12:55:28 PM
While I think these new publicized voter restrictions could have a backfiring 'get out the vote' effect, similar to what we saw in Florida for the 2012 election, count me amongst those who will believe it when they see it.
 
2013-10-25 12:57:11 PM
It's a nice story and will get Battleground Texas some more visibility...and funding.
 
2013-10-25 12:59:15 PM
Unlikely, but I won't oppose when it actually happens.
 
2013-10-25 01:01:38 PM
I want to see Wendy Davis naked.
 
2013-10-25 01:13:12 PM
I wouldn't count on it.  Even if Democrats were 65% of the population, Texas would game the districts to make sure Republicans still won most of the seats.

I'm sure the Democrats living there feel just as helpless as I do living here in Georgia.
 
2013-10-25 01:19:09 PM

Barry Lyndon's Annuity Cheque: scottydoesntknow: Shane Wright and FreedomWorks are in panic mode. They have finally realized that the movement to turn Texas blue is real. They likely realize that the their voter ID suppression tactics and the new voter suppression tactics against women will not be sufficient.

That's because they didn't think it would also keep republican women from voting too.

/Will be voting for Wendy Davis

It'll be hilarious if their disenfranchisement ends up costing them the election, because it both motivated Democrats to register early and no Republicans thought to check that it would affect them, because it was meant to affect them.


doesn't affect older white male population: it doesn't affect them
 
2013-10-25 01:19:41 PM
I'm sitting back and waiting. I wouldn't expect Texas to become purple until at least 2020.
 
2013-10-25 01:19:48 PM
People dont live forever
 
2013-10-25 01:24:04 PM
The ghost of Governor Richards gives this a big thumbs up.
 
2013-10-25 01:25:46 PM
Also of repubs were worried about texas turning blue, they'd be pushing to get rid of winner takes all in the EC. When this happen, you know texas will become blue.
 
2013-10-25 01:27:21 PM

Virulency: doesn't affect older white male population: it doesn't affect them


It affects their Republican wives.
 
2013-10-25 01:30:49 PM
I remember another poster here saying something to the effect that the Texas good ol' boys won't let the state go blue.  I think that's about right.  The moment that happens, Republicans won't win another presidential election again, and they know that.
 
2013-10-25 01:30:53 PM
Oh, Teddy boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling
From glen to glen, and down the mountain side
The summer's gone, and all the flow'rs are dying
'Tis you, 'tis you must go and I must bide.

But come ye back when summer's in the meadow
Or when the valley's hushed and white with snow
'Tis I'll be here in sunshine or in shadow
Oh, Teddy boy, oh, Teddy boy, I love you so.
 
2013-10-25 01:31:38 PM

Walker: Stopped reading after I saw "Austin" in the headline.


By all means.  Please remain ignorant of this operation.
 
2013-10-25 01:31:51 PM
Those cowboys ain't coming out of the closet until their wives throw them out.
 
2013-10-25 01:31:57 PM
Freedom Works, is just mostly saying all the to scary it's people in donating money. That's how the GOP operates.

However I think Dems need to fight more in Texas, if they fight now they can turn it blue sooner rather than later.
 
2013-10-25 01:34:41 PM
Well, as an Austinite, I will say that Texas is becoming purple. Will it happen by 2014? Perhaps? Will Wendy Davis win? I really don't know. But I do know that I am voting for her, as well as most of my friends and family, barring some major meltdown on her part.

The reason why the Republicans are in an uproar is not because of Wendy Davis, it's the fact that the GOP is increasingly becoming a regional power with a dwindling demographic base. The GOP needs places that are "Reliably Red". The GOP has expended tremendous amounts of treasure in the last 3 elections (2008, 2010 and 2012) and even when you include the 2010 sweep, have suprisingly little to show for it. In 2014, the Republicans will be on the defensive, and they simply cannot afford, literally, to have to spend tremendous amounts of campaign money in a place they shouldn't have to.

In terms of local strategy, some of the cynical farkers are correct--Wendy Davis will not win and Texas will not go purple until 2020. But as far as national strategy, what's happening here is absolutely gigantic. Pouring millions into Texas means less resources to expend nationally, and considering the financing gap between the GOP and the Democratic party, this may be the straw that breaks the proverbial camel's back.
 
2013-10-25 01:35:43 PM
 
2013-10-25 01:35:47 PM

Barry Lyndon's Annuity Cheque: It'll be hilarious if their disenfranchisement ends up costing them the election, because it both motivated Democrats to register early and no Republicans thought to check that it would affect them, because it was meant to affect them.


Wouldn't surprise me. Literally nothing they do is based on fact or logic; it's all based on how they "feel" and the "truthy facts" their media endlessly parrot. So for them to make a critical blunder based on what they "thought" is expected.
 
2013-10-25 01:36:46 PM

theinsultabot9000: speaking as an at least moderately democratic texan, no it wont.
Texas going blue is to politics what reliable nuclear power is to the global energy demand.
Its always 30 years away.


Yeah, but isn't it fun to watch Republicans shiatting a brick over the possibility.
 
2013-10-25 01:37:49 PM

Kyosuke: If Austin didn't matter as a voting block, the Republicans wouldn't have had to do this gerrymandering to continue to win elections:

[a0.vsoh.com image 850x473]


I would like to see a rule for drawing district that you make a square around the proposed district and 50% or more of habitual area contained in that square must be that district.

So the yellow one there and the violet one I think would be ok but the brown one would not be allowed.
 
2013-10-25 01:41:41 PM

HooskerDoo: I want to see Wendy Davis naked.


You're welcome [probably nsfw]
 
2013-10-25 01:42:34 PM

mispelled username: Also of repubs were worried about texas turning blue, they'd be pushing to get rid of winner takes all in the EC. When this happen, you know texas will become blue.


They've got plenty of time to switch if it becomes necessary, i.e. the Democratic candidate has a decent chance of winning Texas; the last thing they'd want to do is deprive the Republican candidate of a goodly chunk of Texas's EV. At the very least, they'd want to wait until the state legislature that will be in place during 2016 is seated so it can't be undone legislatively.
 
2013-10-25 01:44:24 PM
texas has some leftist metropolitan areas but the majority of the territory is conservative. The rate of immigration into texas however could change the political demographic; people leaving their shiatty states to come to texas where the economy is strong could end up turning it into their previously-left shiatty state.
 
2013-10-25 01:45:32 PM

doyner: I'll believe it when I see it.  But if it does happen, the disturbance in the herp will be felt throughout the derp.


in all seriousness
in memory of every election night i've stayed up for going back to ...well, never mind
i'd weep if i watched this happen
great big tears of relief and amazement
 
2013-10-25 01:47:33 PM
2016 will be very close for Texas.

2020 it could very well be blue.
 
2013-10-25 01:52:00 PM
So, FreedomWorks sends out a 'omfg blue texas booga booga booga' thing to drum up money and support for 2014 and this Kos dude see that and takes it seriously?

lol
 
2013-10-25 01:55:29 PM

Barry Lyndon's Annuity Cheque: Walker: Donnchadha: Because the politics of Austin are highly representative of the whole state

THIS!

Stopped reading after I saw "Austin" in the headline.

Then you missed the part that Battleground Texas is one pace to register 600,000 new Democrats across the entire state, an acknowledgment that Republicans are "fighting an uphill battle to keep Texas reliably red," and that the quotes and entire Kos piece are based on a post by a blogger from FreedomWorks.


Let them have their delusion.  Now chant with me:

They are totally right.
Nothing will ever change.
Go back to sleeep.
Nothing to see here.
Ignore that torrent of new voter registrations.
Will never overcome the wall of red.
Gooo baaack tooo sleeeep.
That blogger doesn't know anything.
 
2013-10-25 01:56:14 PM
I've already written Davis a check, and if I see a strong ground game I'll write another.
 
2013-10-25 02:05:50 PM
jesdynf, just donate to a charity.  It will do more of an impact.
 
2013-10-25 02:07:14 PM
You mean that this wasn't predicted when they started advertising in places like California and New York for businesses and people to relocate to Texas?
 
2013-10-25 02:08:35 PM

Infernalist: So, FreedomWorks sends out a 'omfg blue texas booga booga booga' thing to drum up money and support for 2014 and this Kos dude see that and takes it seriously?

lol


More like, "Why is FreedomWorks trying to drum up all this cash for Texas? Aren't Republicans safe there?"

And apparently they're not as safe in TX as they thought.
 
2013-10-25 02:12:36 PM

Skleenar: HooskerDoo: I want to see Wendy Davis naked.

You're welcome [probably nsfw]


It's okay, there's no scandalous evidence here. Sigh...
 
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