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(Washington Post)   "Everyone knows that American politics has become a game of Calvinball played with live ammunition. The question facing traders is when to finally bet that this is the day when someone doesn't make it out alive"   (washingtonpost.com) divider line 33
    More: Scary, Calvinball, Americans, American politics, The Washington Post Company, Calvinball played, President Obama, rules committee, Treasury bill  
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804 clicks; posted to Politics » on 16 Oct 2013 at 11:23 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



33 Comments   (+0 »)
   
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2013-10-16 09:45:49 AM  
This old New Yorker cartoon reminds me of to-day's GOP.
www.freeimagehosting.net
 
2013-10-16 10:16:20 AM  
The question facing traders is when to finally bet that this is the day when someone doesn't make it out alive.

You bet when the score reaches Oogy-Boogy
 
2013-10-16 10:48:07 AM  
Why are traders betting like it's a craps game?  The market should be a rational actor with actual performance being used as a defining metric for stock value.
 
2013-10-16 10:52:27 AM  

2wolves: Why are traders betting like it's a craps game?  The market should be a rational actor with actual performance being used as a defining metric for stock value.


In the real world, the market is irrational.
 
2013-10-16 11:04:49 AM  

2wolves: Why are traders betting like it's a craps game?  The market should be a rational actor with actual performance being used as a defining metric for stock value.


[ohwaityou'reserious.jpg]

Seriously, though, the market can't act rationally, if it was rational and predictable, then everyone would know what to do ahead of time, meaning everybody would be wanting to buy and sell at the same time for the same prices, since they were set by reason, meaning no one would be able to buy or sell, since everybody would know what the fair market values were, and no one would be willing to take the loss. Since this system is unstable, the market itself introduces randomness in order to allow the uncertainty that makes trading a gamble that some people are willing to take in one direction or the other.

It's kind of like setting a line in gambling, if everyone knows the outcome, no one bets, but by making it so you're not certain of the outcome, you get lots of money flowing, which is the only way the market works.
 
2013-10-16 11:27:04 AM  

2wolves: Why are traders betting like it's a craps game?  The market should be a rational actor with actual performance being used as a defining metric for stock value.


Pfff
 
2013-10-16 11:30:31 AM  

nmrsnr: 2wolves: Why are traders betting like it's a craps game?  The market should be a rational actor with actual performance being used as a defining metric for stock value.

[ohwaityou'reserious.jpg]

Seriously, though, the market can't act rationally, if it was rational and predictable, then everyone would know what to do ahead of time, meaning everybody would be wanting to buy and sell at the same time for the same prices, since they were set by reason, meaning no one would be able to buy or sell, since everybody would know what the fair market values were, and no one would be willing to take the loss. Since this system is unstable, the market itself introduces randomness in order to allow the uncertainty that makes trading a gamble that some people are willing to take in one direction or the other.

It's kind of like setting a line in gambling, if everyone knows the outcome, no one bets, but by making it so you're not certain of the outcome, you get lots of money flowing, which is the only way the market works.


... yeah, you said it better than I could have. Truly "efficient markets" are an impossibility.
 
2013-10-16 11:31:15 AM  
Oh dear the banking pigs are upset that we were late putting their feed in the trough, it's not like they are going to starve.
 
2013-10-16 11:31:33 AM  

2wolves: Why are traders betting like it's a craps game?  The market should be a rational actor with actual performance being used as a defining metric for stock value.


Treating every event as random, with no causal chain from present to future, would be betting like a craps game. A rational actor attempts to predict the future based on the past and present.
 
2013-10-16 11:32:33 AM  

2wolves: Why are traders betting like it's a craps game?  The market should be a rational actor with actual performance being used as a defining metric for stock value.


Because rationality requires an impossible degree of being informed, just like a command economy.  The efficient market hypothesis is fundamentally grounded in a lie that it quite publicly tells you is an assumption.
 
2013-10-16 11:32:36 AM  

nmrsnr: Seriously, though, the market can't act rationally, if it was rational and predictable, then everyone would know what to do ahead of time, meaning everybody would be wanting to buy and sell at the same time for the same prices, since they were set by reason, meaning no one would be able to buy or sell, since everybody would know what the fair market values were, and no one would be willing to take the loss. Since this system is unstable, the market itself introduces randomness in order to allow the uncertainty that makes trading a gamble that some people are willing to take in one direction or the other.


That's not being rational; that's being psychic. There's a difference. If we were psychic, we wouldn't have to be rational.
 
2013-10-16 11:38:34 AM  
www.insaner.com

Apt analogy is apt.
 
2013-10-16 11:43:41 AM  

Mentat: 2wolves: Why are traders betting like it's a craps game?  The market should be a rational actor with actual performance being used as a defining metric for stock value.

In the real world, the market is irrational.


HAAAAAAaaaaa.  ISWYDT.
 
2013-10-16 11:46:29 AM  
For the life of me, I don't understand how any non-jackass trader can support the Republicans.  While the Republicans might be good for short term scams and profits, they're horrible in the long run.

Of course, there's been a number of studies saying how the majority of hedge fund manager/traders/CEOs are sociopaths...
 
2013-10-16 11:50:01 AM  

Satanic_Hamster: For the life of me, I don't understand how any non-jackass trader can support the Republicans.  While the Republicans might be good for short term scams and profits, they're horrible in the long run.

Of course, there's been a number of studies saying how the majority of hedge fund manager/traders/CEOs are sociopaths...


As someone who works occasionally with traders, I have no idea who you might be talking about.  These people universally have egos the size of mountains.
 
2013-10-16 11:56:22 AM  
I like it. Let's take Congress, give them weapons and ammo, and dump them all on an uninhabited island somewhere. Whoever is still alive after 6 months gets to come home. Put up a bunch of cameras and televise the whole thing on pay-per-view. While they are gone, we can have a bunch of brain-damaged chimpanzees do their jobs for them. We'd probably have the most productive Congress in at least 20 years.
 
2013-10-16 11:57:44 AM  
I love that quote.
 
2013-10-16 12:00:48 PM  

ikanreed: As someone who works occasionally with traders, I have no idea who you might be talking about. These people universally have egos the size of mountains.


Yep.  I just don't understand how someone can deal with that much money and have so little regards for long term planning or values.
 
2013-10-16 12:02:51 PM  

Millennium: That's not being rational; that's being psychic. There's a difference. If we were psychic, we wouldn't have to be rational.


No, you just have to be predictable, that can mean probabilities. Is it rational to gamble in a casino? No, because the expected return on a dollar investment is less than one dollar. Is it rational to run a casino? Yes, because your expected return is greater than a dollar.

If markets are predictable, then there is a correct decision and incorrect decision for every situation, and everyone would know it (assuming perfect knowledge and transparency, the things modeling of rationality are based on), so there would be no trading, since no one would be on the wrong end of the decision.

If markets are completely unpredictable, then there is no rationality anyway, because no one knows what will happen tomorrow, so it's a complete gamble, and rational actors won't participate if there's absolutely no way to measure risk.

Reality is somewhere in between, heavily leaning towards rationality, but with a healthy does of irrational unpredictability keeping it so that the players don't know what the rational decision at any given moment is, though there are safer bets than others.
 
2013-10-16 12:04:50 PM  

Satanic_Hamster: ikanreed: As someone who works occasionally with traders, I have no idea who you might be talking about. These people universally have egos the size of mountains.

Yep.  I just don't understand how someone can deal with that much money and have so little regards for long term planning or values.


They make all their money on volume, not adding value.
 
2013-10-16 12:05:32 PM  
www.deepfocusreview.com
James Mason: It's not very sporting to use live ammunition.
North by Northwest
 
2013-10-16 12:17:42 PM  

log_jammin: I love that quote.


I move that the first sentence of this quote be made the official motto of the Politics tab.
 
2013-10-16 12:23:27 PM  

Prime: log_jammin: I love that quote.

I move that the first sentence of this quote be made the official motto of the Politics tab.


SECOND!

/subby
 
2013-10-16 12:36:34 PM  
I'd say its more like pro wrestling
 
2013-10-16 12:41:35 PM  
Ok, I've been schooled.  Engineer brain thinks no gooder and MBAs will be smrt.
 
2013-10-16 02:23:39 PM  
I can't figure out why people in this thread think making decisions in the absence of perfect information is "irrational".
 
2013-10-16 02:37:07 PM  

Skyrmion: I can't figure out why people in this thread think making decisions in the absence of perfect information is "irrational".


Because that is their worldview.
 
2013-10-16 03:01:01 PM  
The question facing traders is not when to finally bet that this is the day when someone doesn't make it out alive. Rather, the question facing traders is whether or not today is the day when the expected losses will be smaller from hiring a few hitmen (and a slew of defense lawyers afterward) to remove certain members of congress from the quorum than from not hiring them.
 
2013-10-16 03:11:36 PM  

Skyrmion: I can't figure out why people in this thread think making decisions in the absence of perfect information is "irrational".


Because there are people who literally claim that the markets are capable of perfect decision making.  That's not a hypothetical.
 
2013-10-16 04:57:25 PM  

gaslight: This old New Yorker cartoon reminds me of to-day's GOP.
[www.freeimagehosting.net image 367x367]


But didn't Plan R set off the cobalt thorium G?
 
2013-10-16 06:10:29 PM  

Skyrmion: I can't figure out why people in this thread think making decisions in the absence of perfect information is "irrational".


Here's an example.  One assumption of the efficient market hypothesis is that the markets will naturally stabilize themselves.  If the price of a stock, for instance, goes too high, investors will start selling which will bring it down to it's ideal price.  During the dot com bubble, lots of investors shorted the market thinking that exactly this would happen.  It didn't.  The dotcom stocks kept rising even after it became clear that they were built on lies.  It turns out that irrational behavior drives momentum.  If investors see a stock rising, they jump in thinking they'll be able to squeeze out a few dollars in profit before it collapses.  When the stock starts to drop, everyone panics and sells, driving the price far below it's ideal.  Far from stabilizing the stock, the actions of investors tend to increase the variance between the highs and lows.
 
2013-10-17 01:39:04 AM  

Skyrmion: I can't figure out why people in this thread think making decisions in the absence of perfect information is "irrational".


if you pay attention, most of those upset are upset because the people in the show don't do whatever little post apocalyptic fantasy they've day dreamed about.

"everyone on that show is stupid. why don't they just weld a bunch of spikes and stuff onto a car and just like mow all teh zombies down?"
 
2013-10-17 01:39:39 AM  
god damn it...wrong farking thread....
 
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