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(New York Magazine)   What the first day of the default might look like   ( nymag.com) divider line
    More: Scary, Sen. Ted Cruz, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, Bipartisan Policy Center, stock traders, equity trading, United States Department of the Treasury, Felix Salmon, software patch  
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21938 clicks; posted to Main » on 15 Oct 2013 at 5:35 PM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-10-15 10:33:35 PM  
1) I said "make" points, not "score" points.
2) I pay my full share. It's thoise who sell their votes to the democrats that tend to want to force me to pay their share too.
3) Yes, back when I was one of them. I went back to school, and struggled to better myself, while also raising children.
4) I have plenty of empathy and sympathy for my fellow humans. But, there is a limit. I can't carry the weight of the world. And it is unethical to force me to, to the point of working me into poverty. I give to charity. I also volunteer.
5) "Political Sociopathy"... Really? You're going to sit there, amongst a group of people who have sold their voting power to the political party who promises them the most easy profit  from the sweat of other peoples' brows and call me a "Political Sociopath"?.
 
2013-10-15 10:33:49 PM  

HAMMERTOE: Jacobin: Just finish Atlas Shrugged?

No.

Lest you assume that I'm ideologically tied to the GOP, I'll just take this single opportunity to say that it's a damn shame that I have to ally myself with a party of hypocritical, greedy, superstitious pricks because they're the ONLY party that believes that you should be entitled to a larger share of the fruit of your labors than the government, and by extension, the chronically parasitic.

A damn shame indeed.


Im with you and I share your loathing for Republicans as well.
 
2013-10-15 10:40:41 PM  
Once again, The Onion nails it.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/the-republican-party-cannot-stand-by - and-let-obama,34074/
 
2013-10-15 10:53:30 PM  

HAMMERTOE: 1) I said "make" points, not "score" points.


Seemed to me you were trying to count coup. I'll leave that to the jury.


HAMMERTOE: 2) I pay my full share. It's thoise who sell their votes to the democrats that tend to want to force me to pay their share too.


Riiiiiiiiiiiiiight.
upload.wikimedia.org

HAMMERTOE: 3) Yes, back when I was one of them. I went back to school, and struggled to better myself, while also raising children.


Where have I heard that story before?

HAMMERTOE: 4) I have plenty of empathy and sympathy for my fellow humans. But, there is a limit. I can't carry the weight of the world. And it is unethical to force me to, to the point of working me into poverty. I give to charity. I also volunteer.


Do you see that bold part there? I have mentioned before that I worked on a dairy farm, so I know manure and straw when I encounter them. Untrue, self-serving selfish excuses are false, self-serving, selfish, and lame.

HAMMERTOE: 5) "Political Sociopathy"... Really? You're going to sit there, amongst a group of people who have sold their voting power to the political party who promises them the most easy profit  from the sweat of other peoples' brows and call me a "Political Sociopath"?.


Yup. Because your characterization is false, and it contrasts the truth of my words more starkly with the self-serving, hateful lies of yours.  There's a huge gulf between your view (Fark you - I got mine!) and my view (We have an obligation take care of our own.).
You've indicted and convicted yourself with your own words as a political sociopath and perjurer.
 
2013-10-15 10:57:37 PM  

jeffmw: Can someone explain why we can't pay our interest payments with the money coming in and "default" on other budget items?


We can and will do exactly that if it comes to it. The fear mongering and hand wringing is part of the liberal temper tantrum.
 
2013-10-15 11:06:27 PM  

cchris_39: jeffmw: Can someone explain why we can't pay our interest payments with the money coming in and "default" on other budget items?

We can and will do exactly that if it comes to it. The fear mongering and hand wringing is part of the liberal temper tantrum.


Yes those wacky liberals. Just making a mountain out a molehill. You totally nailed it.
 
2013-10-15 11:13:27 PM  
I sold my mutual funds betting that the government will fark things up.

/it's not possible to go wrong betting against government
 
2013-10-15 11:21:31 PM  

cchris_39: jeffmw: Can someone explain why we can't pay our interest payments with the money coming in and "default" on other budget items?

We can and will do exactly that if it comes to it. The fear mongering and hand wringing is part of the liberal temper tantrum.


Our soldiers don't need their paychecks. They volunteered!
 
2013-10-15 11:29:38 PM  

mediablitz: olddinosaur: Hogwash as usual.

The world didn't end the last 17 times this happened, and it won't end now.

Care to show the class when we defaulted 17 times?


Here.

/I believe '17' was exaggerated for effect.
 
2013-10-15 11:44:47 PM  
Seeing as how the government doesn't have any interest payments due until the end of the month, I'd say the article was full of shiat.
 
2013-10-15 11:47:44 PM  

Cataholic: Seeing as how the government doesn't have any interest payments due until the end of the month, I'd say the article was full of shiat.


FTA --

In recent days, I've spoken to a number of financiers and policy experts on what could happen if we reach the "X Date" - the date on which the United States Treasury has burned through all of its cash, and is no longer able to cover its expenses. (The Bipartisan Policy Center expects this date to come between October 18 and November 1, but for simplicity's sake, let's assume it happens on an appropriately scary date - October 31, Halloween, and the day a huge interest payment on U.S. debt is due.)

Interesting theory there, Droz.
 
2013-10-16 12:24:24 AM  

MarkEC: What is the legal definition of Debt? From what I've read it is money due to a creditor. People on welfare are not creditors. People collecting SS are not creditors. States expecting Federal money for a myriad of reasons are not creditors. The only creditors are the ones who loaned the government money. Intake is 141 Billion per month, Interest on the debt is 18 Billion per month. That is the debt the constitution requires paying on. That leaves 123 Billion per month for everything else.


Actually SS is debt.  SS tax receipts go in the trust fund, which then buys US government securities.  Those securities get redeemed later to make SS payments.  (This is how the system has intentionally worked from the beginning, by the way, not a recent change to "raid" the trust fund as various people believe.)

Also, a creditor is anyone you are obligated to pay money to for any reason.  You can owe somebody money without them having loaned you anything (e.g. you caused damage to someone and they went to court and got a judgment).  If you are statutorily entitled to money or other valuable consideration and don't receive it, you now have a cause of action against the debtor which can lead to a civil judgment.
 
2013-10-16 12:36:49 AM  

Pick: In the end, it's plain and simple. This is all Obama's fault. If he had not rammed this train wreck called "The Affordable Health Care Act", down our throats, none of this would be happening. You see, in the end, it's not going to be affordable at all. And it's going to cost this country dearly.


I'm certain this is trolling bait, but I'll bite.
You and your buddy Ted Cruz are spouting exactly the same BS that Reagan did before Medicare.  After it came into effect, it was so popular that Reagan expanded it.  Ironically, 70% of Tea Party members don't want any cuts to Medicare.  But obviously the ACA is just so much worse and will ruin everything?  Even assuming it turned out poorly, there is no way it would do the kind of damage that defaulting on the debt will.


HAMMERTOE: they're the ONLY party that believes that you should be entitled to a larger share of the fruit of your labors than the government


That's pure bull.  When adjusted for inflation, tax rates now are lower than they've been for the last 80+ years.  NOBODY pays a majority of their income to the government, and no Democrat is advocating for a plan where they do.  Even people who are at a high enough income bracket that they pay close to .40 cents on the dollar almost always end up paying much less than that compared to their actual income.
 
2013-10-16 12:51:27 AM  

lawboy87: In this case, a group of idiots (most first-termers) playing the role of politicians without what appears to be even an inkling of an understanding of what their job truly is.


Sadly, I think they know exactly what their job is.
Their job was to be exactly the sort of unreasonably and uncompromisingly idealistic and dim-witted kamikaze pilots that their equally-stupid Tea Party constituents elected them to be.  They were NOT elected to be competent lawmakers, they were NOT elected to reach across the isle and compromise, or even to uphold the checked-and-balanced governing guidelines set out by the Constitution.  They were elected from, and by, crowds of drooling morons specifically to completely f**k up the machinations of a government that they simultaneously hate and rely on (whether they know it or not) by stomping their feet about whatever dumba** issue that the collective radical right has stuck in their craw and then jamming wrenches in the works when they don't get their way.  By all accounts, that appears to be exactly what they're doing.
 
2013-10-16 12:58:12 AM  
The Republicans changed the rules of the house on October 1 to keep the shutdown going.  Rather than any member being allowed to have a "privileged motion", only House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Virginia or his designee is permitted to do so. (with video)

They never had any intention of resolving the issue.  They are going to default.  That was always the plan.
 
2013-10-16 01:01:52 AM  
Thankfully I was raised and taught how to live off the land. The rest of you are doomed though. Turn the lights off on your way out!
 
2013-10-16 01:06:37 AM  
If this happens, I am completely cool with the DC police rounding up GOP senators and congresscritters, hauling them to jail, trying them in court, and hanging each one of them for treason.
 
2013-10-16 01:15:19 AM  

Terrible Old Man: Thankfully I was raised and taught how to live off the land. The rest of you are doomed though. Turn the lights off on your way out!


There was an interesting scene in the tv show Jericho about the aftermath of a nuclear attack.  Some of the characters go out to hunt but can't find any game because the refugees from the cities swept through and devoured everything.  But that's ok, I'm sure you have a million bullets to protect what's yours.
 
2013-10-16 01:18:29 AM  

HAMMERTOE: Funny how it was no big deal for families, who are already stretched about as far as they can be...


Nine kids, a bass boat, and a third mortgage on the double-wide does tend to stretch a family.
 
2013-10-16 02:06:04 AM  
haywatchthis:

What happened there? Earthquake?
 
2013-10-16 02:24:16 AM  

Loadmaster: Let's face it, it will be almost as bad as the Y2K crisis.

Better start hoarding the canned beans and bullets.


Crap I got dried beans and canned bullets! I read it wrong! I don't have a pot or a can opener!
 
2013-10-16 02:29:06 AM  

Silverstaff: FormlessOne: If we haven't cleared this up by EOD tomorrow, expect our credit rating downgrades to occur on October 17.

Actually, there have been hints already by several rating agencies that we're going to get a downgrade one way or the other now.

It will be a MUCH larger one if we actually default, but we've come so close to it by this point that even if this moment the debt ceiling was raised that the confidence in the US dollar has already been damaged.


Hell, yeah. I already traded all my American dollars for Chinese dollars! I know a guy high up who says on Oct 17, that's what we will all start using. You can trust the Chinamen!
 
2013-10-16 02:32:20 AM  

Richard C Stanford: Well, I'll yet again retreat to my bunker, equipped with spam, refried beans, weed, booze, every episode of MST3K, the first 15 seasons of "The Simpsons", an Xbox, and lots of guns. Oh, and a crate full of duct tape. After the initial shiartstorm, regroup at the Washington monument and help get America 2.0 up and running. Stanford 2015, two deathcars in every garage and Nuka-cola in every fridge!
Oh, I advise to buy a crate full of duct tape. All those idiots buying gold will be begging to get them some of nature's miracle adhesive once the SHTF. How else are you going to attach things in a convenient manner? Vines? Where do you think you are, Gilligan's Island? With duct tape, you can fix holes in your clothes, make a sling for your Fat Man, or make some rope for a fire drill. Soon, I shall control all the duct tape. And then Richard C Stanford shall rule BarterTown.


You can actually make clothing out of only duct tape. I have a waterproof hoodie.
 
2013-10-16 04:01:47 AM  
HAMMERTOE:
Lest you assume that I'm ideologically tied to the GOP, I'll just take this single opportunity to say that it's a damn shame that I have to ally myself with a party of hypocritical, greedy, superstitious pricks because they're the ONLY party that believes that you should be entitled to a larger share of the fruit of your labors than the government, and by extension, the chronically parasitic.

A damn shame indeed.


If that's your thought process, then I'd say that, yes, you are ideologically tied to the GOP.  Where else would you possibly fit in, classic makers v. takers stuff right there.  More of a Romney republican, but republican nonetheless.
 
2013-10-16 04:34:28 AM  
haywatchthis:

Why doesn't that vulture just eat? That kid can't put up a fight. Stupid bird.
 
2013-10-16 06:25:30 AM  

Kensey: MarkEC: What is the legal definition of Debt? From what I've read it is money due to a creditor. People on welfare are not creditors. People collecting SS are not creditors. States expecting Federal money for a myriad of reasons are not creditors. The only creditors are the ones who loaned the government money. Intake is 141 Billion per month, Interest on the debt is 18 Billion per month. That is the debt the constitution requires paying on. That leaves 123 Billion per month for everything else.

Actually SS is debt.  SS tax receipts go in the trust fund, which then buys US government securities.  Those securities get redeemed later to make SS payments.  (This is how the system has intentionally worked from the beginning, by the way, not a recent change to "raid" the trust fund as various people believe.)

Also, a creditor is anyone you are obligated to pay money to for any reason.  You can owe somebody money without them having loaned you anything (e.g. you caused damage to someone and they went to court and got a judgment).  If you are statutorily entitled to money or other valuable consideration and don't receive it, you now have a cause of action against the debtor which can lead to a civil judgment.


SS was found by the supreme court to be a tax just like the penalty in Obamacare was found to be a tax. Neither one would be constitutional if not.
 
2013-10-16 07:06:14 AM  

FreudulentSplit: classic makers v. takers stuff right there


Interesting label. Now justify it.
 
2013-10-16 07:18:25 AM  

Gawdzila: That's pure bull. When adjusted for inflation, tax rates now are lower than they've been for the last 80+ years.


lol- How do you "adjust" a percentage "for inflation"?
 
2013-10-16 07:24:55 AM  

Gawdzila: That's pure bull. When adjusted for inflation, tax rates now are lower than they've been for the last 80+ years.


I think what you were trying to say was, "When adjusted for inflation, total taxes collected are now lower than they've been for 80+ years." Which would be totally correct. And also wonderful proof of how both parties use tax collection to buy votes.
 
2013-10-16 07:40:45 AM  
Sometimes I think the Republican mission is to sink the world economy and keep it underwater forever.
 
2013-10-16 07:46:38 AM  

Wolfling: Its a bit unfashionable to have a moderate view of this stuff... but here goes.

Interest rates will go up significantly in the US, but in other countries, where only a small percentage of internationally secured loans depend on US bonds, they'll only climb a percentage point or so.  For the vast majority of people, this just means a small hike in their home loan payments.

Commodity markets will be largely unaffected.  Manufacturers will continue to acquire raw materials, and will continue to sell their goods.  Indeed any sector of the market that deals in tangibles will continue to function just fine.  The banks will hurt a bit, and one or two of them might go under.  A lot of people will lose some of their savings.  Anyone who makes their living by milking the markets (eg not actually making anything useful) will hurt a bit - though there will always be a few who will profit from the situation.

The people who will suffer the most will be the 401ks and those who are so close to the poverty line that they can't afford another $500 per month on their mortgage.  And almost all of these will be US citizens.  Most of these folks won't go under on day 1.  It'll take between a month and a year for their cash reserves to dry up... and that's only the small percentage who aren't able to adapt to the new environment.

So, the property market will dip (not plunge) on a wave of defaults, and it'll take 5-7 years for it to restabilise back to current levels.  Homelessness will rise a little.  Quality of living measures will drop off by a percentage point or two.

Its not exactly rioting in the streets now, is it?



It may be. The thing is, this was the moderate view back in 2008. These kinds of sacrifices are unbearable at this point.

You really need to watch this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPKKQnijnsM
 
2013-10-16 07:55:09 AM  

Hermione_Granger: These kinds of sacrifices are unbearable at this point.


Apparently not, for that is exactly what the ACA meant, just in the form of drastically increased insurance premiums.
 
2013-10-16 08:01:54 AM  

rigmort: So much drivel from uninformed liberals around here.

http://www.hpe.com/opinion/x559273386/Thomas-Sowell-Who-shut-down-th e- government

"There is really nothing complicated about the facts. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives voted all the money required to keep all government activities going - except for Obamacare.
This is not a matter of opinion. You can check the Congressional Record.
As for the House of Representatives' right to grant or withhold money, that is not a matter of opinion either. You can check the Constitution of the United States. All spending bills must originate in the House of Representatives, which means that congressmen there have a right to decide whether or not they want to spend money on a particular government activity. "

"If Sen. Reid and President Obama refuse to accept the money required to run the government, because it leaves out the money they want to run Obamacare, that is their right. But that is also their responsibility. "


Sowell's a moron.  From your link:  "Since we cannot read minds, we cannot say who - if anybody - "wants to shut down the government."

We don't have to read minds...we just have to listen to folks like Michelle Bachman brag about it.

Try to find someone credible for a source next time.
 
2013-10-16 08:03:26 AM  
Within hours:
2.bp.blogspot.com


Meanwhile at the reserve bank in DC
impruvism.com


Just raise the debt ceiling an we will let you walk away.
There has been enough pain
oneguyrambling.com
 
2013-10-16 08:09:07 AM  

cchris_39: jeffmw: Can someone explain why we can't pay our interest payments with the money coming in and "default" on other budget items?

We can and will do exactly that if it comes to it. The fear mongering and hand wringing is part of the liberal temper tantrum.


Which won't placate all those foreigners we like to sell our debt to.
Those foreigners?  their place on the libtard/wingnut spectrum is irrelevant compared to their willingness to buy, which is what the Republicans are putting at risk.

Which is odd...you'd think nominally-Christian religious types would be able to understand things like "faith" and "abstract concepts" and "empathy."

Oh, well...none out of three is about par for the GOP these days.
 
2013-10-16 08:19:53 AM  
b.vimeocdn.com

(From 'Knowing'. One of my top 10 faves, and kudos to anyone else who's seen it! But yeah, the default would be like the ending. Eh, not really....)
 
2013-10-16 08:23:39 AM  
If the government lives within its means, its credit rating means zilch. Credit ratings are only important to entities that need to borrow money. If the government lives within its means, it doesn't need to borrow money. As for "empathy" and "faith", they can only sustain you for so long. Sooner or later, the realization comes upon you that all your charity is just being taken advantage of by people who have no intention of reciprocating, nor even any intention of shouldering their own weight.
 
2013-10-16 08:41:58 AM  

MarkEC: dchurch0: jeffmw: Can someone explain why we can't pay our interest payments with the money coming in and "default" on other budget items?

It's been explained numerous times in the threads relating to the shutdown.

The treasury has no mechanism for prioritizing debt, because the constitution says that all debt has to be honored. Therefore, they have a FIFO system (First In, First Out). Even if they decided to do this, it would not be possible to develop a system and put it in place before the defaults began to occur.

I'm sure some other farker here can explain in more detail, but the short answer is: It's Impossible.

What is the legal definition of Debt? From what I've read it is money due to a creditor. People on welfare are not creditors. People collecting SS are not creditors. States expecting Federal money for a myriad of reasons are not creditors. The only creditors are the ones who loaned the government money. Intake is 141 Billion per month, Interest on the debt is 18 Billion per month. That is the debt the constitution requires paying on. That leaves 123 Billion per month for everything else.


OK. I mistyped that. The treasury pays all bills, both scheduled payments to those items like you mentioned, and payments on the debt. There is no mechanism to prioritize the debt payments above those other items.

My point stands, and you aren't getting it. We can't just choose to pay only the debt and dole out the leftovers to whichever agency/program we want to fund. It doesn't work that way.
 
2013-10-16 09:10:16 AM  

dchurch0: We can't just choose to pay only the debt and dole out the leftovers to whichever agency/program we want to fund. It doesn't work that way.


Sure we can. Just like the Feds can afford officers to erect barricades and keep parks closed, but can't afford to keep parks open. I'd be willing to bet the NSA hasn't lost a single cent of budget.
 
2013-10-16 10:04:33 AM  
The day before the first day of default the market is up 100 points and oil is down.

Maybe the sky will tomorrow.
 
2013-10-16 04:23:45 PM  

quickdraw: SlothB77: When did libs become the piss-in-your-pants scared of everything party?

Really? Is this all you've got? You're calling us pussies because we libs feel a sense of fiscal responsibility for our debt holders - the American people.

Well alrighty then. Duly noted as "thinks fiscal responsibility is for wimps"


Nope.  Just like throwing your own arguments back at you.  Simple and effective.
 
2013-10-16 08:25:44 PM  

Eddie Adams from Torrance: [i236.photobucket.com image 202x250]

What's say we pull out the Freedom guillotine and water the tree of liberty?


A few beheadings, even if questionably justifiable, would have a tremendous impact.
 
2013-10-17 02:12:41 AM  

MarkEC: Kensey: MarkEC: What is the legal definition of Debt? From what I've read it is money due to a creditor. People on welfare are not creditors. People collecting SS are not creditors. States expecting Federal money for a myriad of reasons are not creditors. The only creditors are the ones who loaned the government money. Intake is 141 Billion per month, Interest on the debt is 18 Billion per month. That is the debt the constitution requires paying on. That leaves 123 Billion per month for everything else.

Actually SS is debt.  SS tax receipts go in the trust fund, which then buys US government securities.  Those securities get redeemed later to make SS payments.  (This is how the system has intentionally worked from the beginning, by the way, not a recent change to "raid" the trust fund as various people believe.)

Also, a creditor is anyone you are obligated to pay money to for any reason.  You can owe somebody money without them having loaned you anything (e.g. you caused damage to someone and they went to court and got a judgment).  If you are statutorily entitled to money or other valuable consideration and don't receive it, you now have a cause of action against the debtor which can lead to a civil judgment.

SS was found by the supreme court to be a tax just like the penalty in Obamacare was found to be a tax. Neither one would be constitutional if not.


To the taxpayer looking at the money taken for the trust fund, yeah, it's a tax.  To the government looking at the bonds the trust fund buys with that tax money, it's debt.  FICA tax revenues never go directly into the General Fund.
 
2013-10-17 04:27:05 AM  

HAMMERTOE: Gawdzila: That's pure bull. When adjusted for inflation, tax rates now are lower than they've been for the last 80+ years.

lol- How do you "adjust" a percentage "for inflation"?


??? O_o
You don't adjust the percentage, you adjust the income bracket attached to it.
 
2013-10-17 04:34:14 AM  

Gawdzila: HAMMERTOE: Gawdzila: That's pure bull. When adjusted for inflation, tax rates now are lower than they've been for the last 80+ years.

lol- How do you "adjust" a percentage "for inflation"?

??? O_o
You don't adjust the percentage, you adjust the income bracket attached to it.


Taxes as a percent of GDP would be my guess.
 
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