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(New York Magazine)   What the first day of the default might look like   (nymag.com) divider line 247
    More: Scary, Sen. Ted Cruz, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, Bipartisan Policy Center, stock traders, equity trading, United States Department of the Treasury, Felix Salmon, software patch  
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21777 clicks; posted to Main » on 15 Oct 2013 at 5:35 PM (44 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-10-15 05:56:43 PM

mediablitz: olddinosaur: Hogwash as usual.

The world didn't end the last 17 times this happened, and it won't end now.

Care to show the class when we defaulted 17 times?


Jimmy Carter and furthermore
 
2013-10-15 05:57:52 PM
House Speaker John Boehner wakes up in his bed, after a short and sleepless night.

Stopped reading there.
 
2013-10-15 05:58:39 PM

Treygreen13: Interesting how Fark so be so skeptical about everything but read this and believe every word of it.


Can we get that in English?
 
2013-10-15 05:59:26 PM
Way too optimistic. The real trouble will start well before Halloween - we won't need to wait until "X Date", as credit agencies are already threatening to downgrade our credit rating even if we pass a temporary debt ceiling bill, because it's clear to them that we're at increased risk of default. Remember, we don't need to actually default to be at increased risk of default, as Fitch is already stating (and rightfully so.)

If we haven't cleared this up by EOD tomorrow, expect our credit rating downgrades to occur on October 17.

HotIgneous Intruder: It's not "republicans" doing this.
It's religious fundamentalists who have infiltrated the congress via the GOP.


Bullshiat. The "religious fundamentalists" didn't start the planning in January, nor are they the ones that changed the House rules to ensure this happened. The GOP, as a whole, participated in planning and implementing this disaster, as a deliberate act of political terrorism. The GOP doesn't get to point to a minority in their party and say, "...they're out of control! We didn't do it - it's their fault!" The career politicians in the GOP want to make this about an isolated, out-of-control group, but it's the GOP that invited those assholes in, fed & watered them, pointed them at the causes for which they could do the most damage, and basically used these assholes as attack dogs to forestall rational debate. The GOP worked with these assholes to construct the situation we're now in - the GOP doesn't get a pass by farting and pointing at the dog.
 
2013-10-15 05:59:55 PM

mediablitz: Treygreen13: Interesting how Fark so be so skeptical about everything but read this and believe every word of it.

Can we get that in English?


No. I prefer my comments to be nearly un-readable.
 
2013-10-15 06:00:10 PM

Grand_Moff_Joseph: "Until recently, asking what would happen if the U.S. defaulted on its debt was like asking what unicorns like to eat for breakfast"

Silly reporter, that's easy -- Oats with honey, a side of toast, and some juice.  Coffee if a certain purple unicorn is at the table.


Sweetie Belle : Cooking :: John Boehner : Governing
 
2013-10-15 06:00:19 PM
img.fark.net
 
2013-10-15 06:00:59 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: actually this:

[img541.imageshack.us image 640x480]

Is what my Thursday will look like. Goin Fishin


Fishing's not very sporting when the fish fall sideways out of the river.
 
2013-10-15 06:01:02 PM

olddinosaur: Hogwash as usual.

The world didn't end the last 17 times this happened, and it won't end now.


This has never happened before. Ever. Kind of the point, really. We're not talking "partial government shutdown" here, which has happened 17 times in the past, but "the entire country defaulting on its financial obligations," which has never happened in the history of this country.
 
2013-10-15 06:01:35 PM
Best case scenario:
www.jonathanrosenbaum.com

Worst case scenario:

image.gamespotcdn.net
 
2013-10-15 06:01:48 PM
"With slight tremors in his voice..."

Oh, the feels. Bring the dramas. Bring them!

The tremors are actually fears that a majority of Americans will realize the the government has it's probiscus more deeply embedded in the bloodstream of the American economy than it's worth. Suddenly, "You didn't build that," is going to be exposed for the huge lie that it really is. Sure, it will be uncomfortable, especially for those who have hitched their wagons to federal largesse. And also for those the government has chosen to regulate to the point of dependency on "permits" and "waivers", (artificial conditions enacted by the government in the effort to inexorably extend its reach and power.) The government doesn't create the economy, it rides it like a huge wave. It might, *might*, create conditions favorable to the economy, then leach off of it, but it certainly doesn't create it. It certainly can also create conditions toxic to it as well, as recent events have proven. People like you and I create the economy, by risking our savings, and investing our time, effort and money. *But*, only if the return is worth the risk of the investment, something that seems to always escape those who wish to leech, and those who wish to curry favor with the former.
 
2013-10-15 06:04:04 PM
Didn't read. Was it the capital wasteland from Fallout 3?
 
2013-10-15 06:05:25 PM

The Stealth Hippopotamus: actually this:

[img541.imageshack.us image 640x480]

Is what my Thursday will look like. Goin Fishin


Passed out drunk in the boat?

/lucky you.
 
2013-10-15 06:05:31 PM

gnosis301: Didn't read. Was it the capital wasteland from Fallout 3?


It was creative writing media fearmongering with a dash of ooga-booga and a side of pearl-clutching.
 
2013-10-15 06:05:49 PM

Nadie_AZ: Oh. So Fallout. Cool, cool. Anyone got a spare pipboy I can use?


Psst...wanna try some jet?
 
2013-10-15 06:06:06 PM

Nadie_AZ: Oh. So Fallout. Cool, cool. Anyone got a spare pipboy I can use?


Sure, but first I need you to take this coin to someone in Vegas for me
 
2013-10-15 06:06:57 PM
Its a bit unfashionable to have a moderate view of this stuff... but here goes.

Interest rates will go up significantly in the US, but in other countries, where only a small percentage of internationally secured loans depend on US bonds, they'll only climb a percentage point or so.  For the vast majority of people, this just means a small hike in their home loan payments.

Commodity markets will be largely unaffected.  Manufacturers will continue to acquire raw materials, and will continue to sell their goods.  Indeed any sector of the market that deals in tangibles will continue to function just fine.  The banks will hurt a bit, and one or two of them might go under.  A lot of people will lose some of their savings.  Anyone who makes their living by milking the markets (eg not actually making anything useful) will hurt a bit - though there will always be a few who will profit from the situation.

The people who will suffer the most will be the 401ks and those who are so close to the poverty line that they can't afford another $500 per month on their mortgage.  And almost all of these will be US citizens.  Most of these folks won't go under on day 1.  It'll take between a month and a year for their cash reserves to dry up... and that's only the small percentage who aren't able to adapt to the new environment.

So, the property market will dip (not plunge) on a wave of defaults, and it'll take 5-7 years for it to restabilise back to current levels.  Homelessness will rise a little.  Quality of living measures will drop off by a percentage point or two.

Its not exactly rioting in the streets now, is it?
 
2013-10-15 06:07:09 PM

Treygreen13: gnosis301: Didn't read. Was it the capital wasteland from Fallout 3?

It was creative writing media fearmongering with a dash of ooga-booga and a side of pearl-clutching.


Are you suggesting a default won't be an issue?
 
2013-10-15 06:07:16 PM

Treygreen13: Interesting how Fark so be so skeptical about everything but read this and believe every word of it.


Fark... Skeptical? This is the same Fark where we will 3D print cars and warp drives next week because spaaaaaaaace?
 
2013-10-15 06:08:31 PM
Feb 23, 2014

Left the city behind, still fighting there.  Must be Republican holdouts.

Met a fellow traveler on the road.  Wanted to trade gold coins for foodstuffs.  Moron

Running low on proteins, have to go hunting, old Wal-Mart nearby.  Might be something left.

Heading east.
 
2013-10-15 06:09:06 PM

Wolfling: Its a bit unfashionable to have a moderate view of this stuff... but here goes.


It's almost worth a one month default just to repost your comment a month from now, just to see how silly you sound.
 
2013-10-15 06:09:11 PM
I'm just glad that the party of fiscal responsibility has us on a path that has and will continue to cost America tens of billions of dollars.

What's the cost of an actual default? One additional point or more on interest payments plus credit downgrades?

That's gotta be a nice even $200b
 
2013-10-15 06:11:33 PM

bulldg4life: I'm just glad that the party of fiscal responsibility has us on a path that has and will continue to cost America tens of billions of dollars.

What's the cost of an actual default? One additional point or more on interest payments plus credit downgrades?

That's gotta be a nice even $200b


To hear Tea Partiers tell it, we are SAVING money with the government shutdown. Everything is peachy. So why no stop paying our debt too? We can double the savings!
 
2013-10-15 06:11:47 PM
The Republicans did the first smart thing either party has done in decades.  They offered to end the shutdown over the Obamacare fiasco by requiring everybody in Congress and the President on down to have to receive their health insurance through Obamacare.  Unfortunately, even if it passes Congressional leaders, most being a part of the 1 percent, will be able to afford Obamacare as well as a secondary insurance,

Obamacare is the president's way of saying:  "I don't f*cking care about you, I just want to f*ck you".
 
2013-10-15 06:11:52 PM

Wolfling: Its a bit unfashionable to have a moderate view of this stuff... but here goes.

Interest rates will go up significantly in the US, but in other countries, where only a small percentage of internationally secured loans depend on US bonds, they'll only climb a percentage point or so.  For the vast majority of people, this just means a small hike in their home loan payments.

Commodity markets will be largely unaffected.  Manufacturers will continue to acquire raw materials, and will continue to sell their goods.  Indeed any sector of the market that deals in tangibles will continue to function just fine.  The banks will hurt a bit, and one or two of them might go under.  A lot of people will lose some of their savings.  Anyone who makes their living by milking the markets (eg not actually making anything useful) will hurt a bit - though there will always be a few who will profit from the situation.

The people who will suffer the most will be the 401ks and those who are so close to the poverty line that they can't afford another $500 per month on their mortgage.  And almost all of these will be US citizens.  Most of these folks won't go under on day 1.  It'll take between a month and a year for their cash reserves to dry up... and that's only the small percentage who aren't able to adapt to the new environment.

So, the property market will dip (not plunge) on a wave of defaults, and it'll take 5-7 years for it to restabilise back to current levels.  Homelessness will rise a little.  Quality of living measures will drop off by a percentage point or two.

Its not exactly rioting in the streets now, is it?


No, it isn't rioting in the streets. But, considering this has been a clockwork political move for decades and adds nothing to our debt whatsoever, the consequences seem pretty goddamn stupid for a meaningless paper shuffle on already incurred debt.
 
2013-10-15 06:13:49 PM

GOP



www.clarkegop.com



Why let America shoot itself in the foot?


When you can help America shoot itself in the head.

 
2013-10-15 06:15:56 PM
Whatever. I say we get all the worlds navies and militaries to point their weapons at the US and demand a clean bill or else.
 
2013-10-15 06:20:21 PM
cloud1.baohe.org
 
2013-10-15 06:20:34 PM
It seems that everybody is missing the fact that all of these "continuing resolutions" and continuing debt ceiling crises are a direct result of this President and the democrats not signing off on a real budget since Obama took office.  That's right, this country has not had a budget in almost 6 years now.  The same budget that is mandated to be passed every farking year...   We don't need a farking CR, we don't need any farking debt cieling negotiations... Cut to the point and pass 1 damned budget in 2 farking terms in office!
 
2013-10-15 06:20:50 PM
FTA: "Until recently, asking what would happen if the U.S. defaulted on its debt was like asking what unicorns like to eat for breakfast."

Duh. Cracked wheat and honeydew melons. Way to go, "paper of record."
 
2013-10-15 06:20:51 PM
October 31, 7:00 PM:   Hello, is this Jack Lew? This is Expert Global Solutions. We are attempting to collect a debt - CLICK

October 31, 7:05 PM:  Hello, is this Jack Lew? This is Expert Global Solutions. We are attempting to - CLICK

October 31, 7:12 PM:  Hello, is this Jack Lew? This is Expert Global Solutions. We are - CLICK

October 31, 7:21 PM:  Hello, is this Jack Lew? This is Expert Global Solutions. - CLICK

October 31, 7:34 PM:  Hello, is this Jack Lew? This is Expert  - CLICK

October 31, 7:43 PM:  Hello, is this Jack Lew? - CLICK
 
2013-10-15 06:22:01 PM

Maul555: It seems that everybody is missing the fact that all of these "continuing resolutions" and continuing debt ceiling crises are a direct result of this President and the democrats not signing off on a real budget since Obama took office.  That's right, this country has not had a budget in almost 6 years now.  The same budget that is mandated to be passed every farking year...   We don't need a farking CR, we don't need any farking debt cieling negotiations... Cut to the point and pass 1 damned budget in 2 farking terms in office!


The president should pass and sign his own budget?

What if the democrats agreed to a budget for 2014 that was at sequester levels? Boy, it'd be a huge goddamn concession if Reid and Boehner agreed to that.
 
2013-10-15 06:24:43 PM
Even if you are stupid enough to believe the proposals from the house looking for concessions is not hostage taking, how does one look at the house rule change to bill proposals + the GOP blocking budget conference committees 20 times as Obama causing this situation?
 
2013-10-15 06:25:34 PM
baseballcrank.com
 
2013-10-15 06:27:04 PM
Small scale, localized riots are certainly possible, and I wouldn't be surprised if some politicians' families get seriously harmed in the medium term because of it.
 
2013-10-15 06:28:38 PM
Day 1

1 AM: Massive power outages are reported
3 AM:  dehydration and hunger start to set in.
5 AM Hoardes of people can be seen standing outside grocery stores.
6 AM Mcdonalds announces McRib is back.
7 AM Reports of people eating flesh
 
2013-10-15 06:28:59 PM

orclover: House Speaker John Boehner wakes up in his bed, after a short and sleepless night.

Stopped reading there.


Really?  That's where it starts getting good.

       ". . . For a few heart pounding moments, he hoped it had all been a dream--but the pain in his rectum, not to mention the greasy, slippery feeling of lubricant all over his thighs and the paper cuts on his ass told their own story.  Yes, there it was, still where it had been thrown the night before while in the grip of a sexual frenzy--the United States Constitution, covered in santorum, sticking to the wall.  Meth, he through wildly, meth always does this to me--
      Terrified, John turned to the motionless lump next to him in bed, praying to God that it wasn't Ted Cruz, let it be anyone other than Ted Cruz, let it be the mummified remains of Reagan dug up yet again in a drug-fueled panic, anyone but Ted Cruz--
      When John pulled the covers back and saw, he screamed and screamed and screamed--
 
2013-10-15 06:29:16 PM

Quantum Apostrophe: Treygreen13: Interesting how Fark so be so skeptical about everything but read this and believe every word of it.

Fark... Skeptical? This is the same Fark where we will 3D print cars and warp drives next week because spaaaaaaaace?


Hey, what are you doing over here?

There's a 3D printing/fusion reactor thread that needs your attention, stat.
 
2013-10-15 06:31:18 PM

toraque: orclover: House Speaker John Boehner wakes up in his bed, after a short and sleepless night.

Stopped reading there.

Really?  That's where it starts getting good.

       ". . . For a few heart pounding moments, he hoped it had all been a dream--but the pain in his rectum, not to mention the greasy, slippery feeling of lubricant all over his thighs and the paper cuts on his ass told their own story.  Yes, there it was, still where it had been thrown the night before while in the grip of a sexual frenzy--the United States Constitution, covered in santorum, sticking to the wall.  Meth, he through wildly, meth always does this to me--
      Terrified, John turned to the motionless lump next to him in bed, praying to God that it wasn't Ted Cruz, let it be anyone other than Ted Cruz, let it be the mummified remains of Reagan dug up yet again in a drug-fueled panic, anyone but Ted Cruz--
      When John pulled the covers back and saw, he screamed and screamed and screamed--


Go on...
 
2013-10-15 06:31:39 PM
davidtlamb.files.wordpress.com
 
2013-10-15 06:32:07 PM

Maul555: It seems that everybody is missing the fact that all of these "continuing resolutions" and continuing debt ceiling crises are a direct result of this President and the democrats not signing off on a real budget since Obama took office.  That's right, this country has not had a budget in almost 6 years now.  The same budget that is mandated to be passed every farking year...   We don't need a farking CR, we don't need any farking debt cieling negotiations... Cut to the point and pass 1 damned budget in 2 farking terms in office!


Yeah, how come the President hasn't signed off on the real budget that the Republican House hasn't passed? WTF Obama? And these democrats with their Senate budget already full of compromises, trying to conference about it, blah blah blah? Compromise is for weaklings! Does the GOP look like a bunch of weaklings to you? If they were weak would they be threatening suicide if they don't get everything they want? Just sign off on the budget without all these excuses about it not being on your desk. Enough is enough.
 
2013-10-15 06:33:36 PM
Why do the "lets treat the us budget like a family at the kitchen table" republicans seem to coincide nicely with the idiots that think default is ok?

What happens when you tell visa and Amex that you're going to stop paying your credit card bills cause you shouldn't have purchased all that cool stuff 6 months ago?
 
2013-10-15 06:34:24 PM
In other news, the govenment will still be taking in $3.1 trillion and net interest payments are about $220 billion.

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/us_budget_pie_chart">http://www. usgovernmentspending.com/us_budget_pie_chart
 
2013-10-15 06:37:47 PM

cchris_39: In other news, the govenment will still be taking in $3.1 trillion and net interest payments are about $220 billion.

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/us_budget_pie_chart">http://www. usgovernmentspending.com/us_budget_pie_chart


I'm amazed that you continue to be an idiot after all these years.
 
2013-10-15 06:39:10 PM

Maul555: It seems that everybody is missing the fact that all of these "continuing resolutions" and continuing debt ceiling crises are a direct result of this President and the democrats not signing off on a real budget since Obama took office.  That's right, this country has not had a budget in almost 6 years now.  The same budget that is mandated to be passed every farking year...   We don't need a farking CR, we don't need any farking debt cieling negotiations... Cut to the point and pass 1 damned budget in 2 farking terms in office!


You do know the Senate has passed a budget don't you?  But Republicans won't let the bill go to conference with the house?

1. 4/23 Senator Reid requested unanimous consent to go to conference, Senator Toomey blocked.
2. 5/6 Senator Reid requested unanimous consent to go to conference, Senator Cruz blocked.
3. 5/7 Senator Murray requested unanimous consent to go to conference, Senator McConnell blocked.
4. 5/8 Senator Warner asked unanimous consent to go to conference, Senator McConnell blocked.
5. 5/9 Senator Murray asked unanimous consent to go to conference, Senator McConnell blocked.
6. 5/14 Senator Warner asked unanimous consent to go to conference, and Senator McConnell blocked.
7. 5/15 Senator Wyden asked unanimous consent to go to conference, and Senator McConnell blocked.
8. 5/16 Senator Murray asked unanimous consent to go to conference, and Senator Lee blocked.
9. 5/21 Senator Murray asked unanimous consent to go to conference, and Senator Paul blocked.
10. 5/22 Senator Kaine asked unanimous consent to go to conference, and Senator Rubio blocked.
11. 5/23 Senator McCaskill asked unanimous consent to go to conference, and Senator Lee blocked.
12. 6/4 Senator Murray asked unanimous consent to go to conference, and Senator Rubio blocked.
13. 6/12 Senator Kaine asked unanimous consent to go to conference, and Senator Lee blocked.
14. 6/19 Senator Murray asked unanimous consent to go to conference, and Senator Toomey blocked.
15. 6/26 Senator Murray requested unanimous consent to go to conference, Senator Cruz blocked.
16. 7/11 Senator Murray requested unanimous consent to go to conference, Senator Marco Rubio blocked.
17. 7/17 Senator Murray requested unanimous consent to go to conference, Senator Mike Lee blocked.
18. 8/1 Senator Durbin requested unanimous consent to go to conference, Senator Marco Rubio blocked.
19. 10/2 Senator Murray requested unanimous consent to go to conference, Senator Toomey blocked.
 
2013-10-15 06:40:12 PM

bulldg4life: Why do the "lets treat the us budget like a family at the kitchen table" republicans seem to coincide nicely with the idiots that think default is ok?

What happens when you tell visa and Amex that you're going to stop paying your credit card bills cause you shouldn't have purchased all that cool stuff 6 months ago?


Obviously you haven't defaulted on personal debt like "real mericans". You basically decide not to pay, call up your lawyer and they have you take a credit counseling class. Creditors can no longer call and debt is gone.

/ fark yeah we just need to Chapter 7 up on this biatch...
 
2013-10-15 06:41:02 PM

haywatchthis: [img.fark.net image 502x335]


Like those signs would still be hanging there. They make great blankets or doors for cardboard shelters.
 
2013-10-15 06:42:44 PM

Elegy: Proof that every single one of you should have bought gold and were wrong for mocking Glenn Beck all those years.


My brilliant older brother came to visit me last year. "Want to know how I paid for it? I cashed in one of the gold pieces that I have. I put all my retirement settlement into gold."

Wow. Either a stupendously awful or genius maneuver. Can't tell yet.
 
2013-10-15 06:44:30 PM

Eddie Adams from Torrance: Elegy: Proof that every single one of you should have bought gold and were wrong for mocking Glenn Beck all those years.

HA! While all you idiots have been busy buying gold, I've been quietly cornering the market on wheelbarrows, which you're gonna need to haul that 150lbs of gold down to the store to buy a pack of smokes.


You do know it's not actually gold bars? LOL
 
2013-10-15 06:45:48 PM
What it should look like.

www.aprayertoourfather.com
www.culturewars.com
 
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