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(PennLive)   The severity of the winter will be determined by...c) woolly worms   (pennlive.com) divider line 76
    More: Unlikely, Kiwanis Club, snow shovels  
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3952 clicks; posted to Main » on 14 Oct 2013 at 2:41 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



76 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2013-10-14 01:13:46 PM  
"we still are attaining 110 percent accuracy,"
AKA - we dont know how numbers work.
 
2013-10-14 01:33:05 PM  
one sentence missing from the article for the curious:
"According to the Old Farmer's Almanac, the longer the middle brown band, the milder and shorter the coming winter; the shorter the brown band, the longer and more severe winter will be."
So the stock photo isn't from this year either.
good effort John Beauge!
 
2013-10-14 01:55:32 PM  
Another sign: snowpack extent in Siberia. This year it is almost complete. Last year it was about 60% complete at this time of year. Gonna be cold and wet, maybe worse than 2009-10.
 
2013-10-14 02:13:40 PM  

SurfaceTension: Another sign: snowpack extent in Siberia. This year it is almost complete. Last year it was about 60% complete at this time of year. Gonna be cold and wet, maybe worse than 2009-10.


i1.ytimg.com

Cold. And Hard.
 
2013-10-14 02:43:39 PM  
So Congress is now in the weather business?
 
2013-10-14 02:45:26 PM  
This prediction is Granny Clampett approved.
 
2013-10-14 02:46:00 PM  

SurfaceTension: Another sign: snowpack extent in Siberia. This year it is almost complete. Last year it was about 60% complete at this time of year. Gonna be cold and wet, maybe worse than 2009-10.


2009-10?  That's below 2000!

/was told there'd be no math
 
2013-10-14 02:50:09 PM  
Caterpillars. Are. Not. Worms.
 
2013-10-14 02:50:46 PM  
Bah, everybody knows it's by the shaggy fur on a horse.
 
2013-10-14 02:51:42 PM  
Frankly, I'll trust my Pap Hart farther than I'd ever trust any weatherman on the face of the planet. My Pap kept a weather diary for longer than I've been alive. Every day, recording temperature, humidity, cloud-cover, barometric pressure, and precipitation totals. The man has an uncanny ability to assess what the weather is going to do, simply because he has observed it in its beauty and fury for so long. He swears by, and can usually explain the root of, a lot of these "old wives tales" regarding weather and when to plant and when not to plant.

When we asked him about a month ago at his 80th birthday celebration/picnic what he thought this winter would be like?

"Cold." Was the first word out of his mouth. "Early, and cold."

...I'm making sure my house is well sealed this winter.

/Seriously, the man only has a 6th grade education, but he's by far and away the wisest man I've ever known. It is my greatest honor to be named after him, as the eldest son of the eldest son.
//I will be heartbroken on the day he passes.
 
2013-10-14 02:52:14 PM  
the only one i've seen was completely brown. so i have no idea what the heck that means
 
2013-10-14 02:53:10 PM  
Epic woolly worm migration across the river trail here, last week.  Who knew those critters could move so quickly?

It was like one of those nature documentaries where the baby turtles try to reach the ocean, except with worms and mountain bikes.

/csb
 
2013-10-14 02:53:12 PM  
My wooly worm says it is fairly warm and slightly moist.
 
2013-10-14 02:54:02 PM  

tlchwi02: the only one i've seen was completely brown. so i have no idea what the heck that means


The first one I found, yesterday, was solid black.
 
2013-10-14 02:54:05 PM  
This is an ooooolllllld superstition, I remember hearing about it first in grade school back in the 80s.

And they're 'wooly bears', not wooly worms. But that might be a Northeast thing.
 
2013-10-14 02:54:23 PM  
During the 20-some years I lived in the NC mountains the wooly worm caterpillar never failed to accurately predict the severity and duration of the snowpack. And count those foggy mornings in August- they will roughly equal the number of snowfalls.
/Traditional date of first snow in high NWNC mountains 18 OCT
//granny clampett clone
 
2013-10-14 02:54:28 PM  
4.bp.blogspot.com

Winter is coming
 
2013-10-14 02:55:26 PM  
I saw my first wooly worm last month, so I'm gettin a kick...
 
2013-10-14 02:56:11 PM  
It is gonna be a rough winter:

media.liveauctiongroup.net
 
2013-10-14 02:57:25 PM  

slapmastered: Seriously, the man only has a 6th grade education, but he's by far and away the wisest man I've ever known.


Never confuse formal education with intelligence.  I've know people who were very educated but unintelligent, and I've known very intelligent people who were uneducated.
 
2013-10-14 02:58:16 PM  

phaseolus: Caterpillars. Are. Not. Worms.


Sea horses aren't horses either.
 
2013-10-14 02:58:18 PM  

arkansized: //granny clampett clone


How *YOU* doin?
 
2013-10-14 02:58:56 PM  

dittybopper: slapmastered: Seriously, the man only has a 6th grade education, but he's by far and away the wisest man I've ever known.

Never confuse formal education with intelligence.  I've know people who were very educated but unintelligent, and I've known very intelligent people who were uneducated.


Many people, in fact most of them, have been educated beyond their intelligence.
 
2013-10-14 02:59:09 PM  
img.fark.net

Took this pic yesterday at the Ohio Renaissance Festival.

Looks like it will be an average winter.
 
2013-10-14 02:59:28 PM  
My gummi worm predicts cavities.
 
2013-10-14 02:59:33 PM  
Who doesn't already know this?
 
2013-10-14 03:00:02 PM  

Arkanaut: phaseolus: Caterpillars. Are. Not. Worms.

Sea horses aren't horses either.


i.qkme.me
 
2013-10-14 03:01:00 PM  
Doin the worm predicts douchebaggery.
 
Skr
2013-10-14 03:02:35 PM  
I see wooly  bear caterpillars all the time up here in Minnesota. Never before heard them referred to as 'worms' though. This time of year they are usually curled up into tight little bristly balls. I don't blame them. They feel pretty interesting to the touch.
 
2013-10-14 03:03:04 PM  

Shadow Blasko: [img.fark.net image 720x960]

Took this pic yesterday at the Ohio Renaissance Festival.

Looks like it will be an average winter.


How is the Ohio Renaissance Festival  this year?  Anything new or same old same old?  My wife and I used to go but it was the same thing every year it seemed, so we stopped going a few years ago.

/I do miss getting a mug though
 
2013-10-14 03:03:34 PM  

Burr: [4.bp.blogspot.com image 320x240]

Winter is coming


This worm is dark and full of errors.
 
2013-10-14 03:03:52 PM  

Burr: Arkanaut: phaseolus: Caterpillars. Are. Not. Worms.

Sea horses aren't horses either.

[i.qkme.me image 300x400]


Hamburgers are not made from ham.
 
2013-10-14 03:05:32 PM  
Next greenlight:
People are using a marmot to predict springtime weather!
 
2013-10-14 03:07:56 PM  
Fun fact: Pennsylvania ski resorts, for the last 10 years or so, have been expanding their summer offerings because they expect that within the coming years winters will not be cold enough for long enough to support a viable skiing business.

/ so fark you, wooly worms, is the point here, I guess
 
2013-10-14 03:10:30 PM  
I guess no one has ever found two woolly worms on the same day, or they'd have noticed that no two are alike.
 
2013-10-14 03:11:20 PM  
www.milb.com
This is our minor league team mascot, Wooley B.   Do not mock the wooly bear caterpillar.
 
2013-10-14 03:12:06 PM  

Burr: Shadow Blasko: [img.fark.net image 720x960]

Took this pic yesterday at the Ohio Renaissance Festival.

Looks like it will be an average winter.

How is the Ohio Renaissance Festival  this year?  Anything new or same old same old?  My wife and I used to go but it was the same thing every year it seemed, so we stopped going a few years ago.

/I do miss getting a mug though


Pretty much the same. Been going for 21 years. (missed a few, but I am back now)

Saturday and Sunday were the busiest 2 days in years.(possibly ever). Albannach and Tartan Terrors were there, and we were closed the previous Sunday because the site flooded, so it was an interesting combination of factors that ended up with us having an absolutely AMAZING weekend.
 
2013-10-14 03:12:08 PM  

Begoggle: Next greenlight:
People are using a marmot to predict springtime weather!


But is it a Woolly Marmot?
 
2013-10-14 03:12:55 PM  
Subby: determination prediction. Best brush up on your English.
 
2013-10-14 03:14:46 PM  
blog.cleveland.com

Disapproves of calling woolly bears "woolly worms".  Otherwise, approves of this thread.
 
2013-10-14 03:17:20 PM  
Can we farm them for fur?

Can I have a jacket made out of them?
 
2013-10-14 03:19:23 PM  
The severity of the winter, submittard, will be determined by whatever the IPCC report says the severity of the winter will be. Because anything related to weather or climate follows the IPCC by definition. And if it doesn't, then the weather is wrong, and is subject to an asskicking by the IPCC.
 
2013-10-14 03:22:00 PM  

slapmastered: Frankly, I'll trust my Pap Hart farther than I'd ever trust any weatherman on the face of the planet. My Pap kept a weather diary for longer than I've been alive. Every day, recording temperature, humidity, cloud-cover, barometric pressure, and precipitation totals. The man has an uncanny ability to assess what the weather is going to do, simply because he has observed it in its beauty and fury for so long. He swears by, and can usually explain the root of, a lot of these "old wives tales" regarding weather and when to plant and when not to plant.

When we asked him about a month ago at his 80th birthday celebration/picnic what he thought this winter would be like?

"Cold." Was the first word out of his mouth. "Early, and cold."

...I'm making sure my house is well sealed this winter.

/Seriously, the man only has a 6th grade education, but he's by far and away the wisest man I've ever known. It is my greatest honor to be named after him, as the eldest son of the eldest son.
//I will be heartbroken on the day he passes.


Buck up, maybe he'll get hit by a bus and you can call him "Pap Smear"...
 
2013-10-14 03:22:28 PM  
i.qkme.me
 
2013-10-14 03:29:20 PM  

dittybopper: slapmastered: Seriously, the man only has a 6th grade education, but he's by far and away the wisest man I've ever known.

Never confuse formal education with intelligence.  I've know people who were very educated but unintelligent, and I've known very intelligent people who were uneducated.


My intention was neither to denigrate formal education nor glorify it. Different people have different requirements for their lives. My dad, for example, was the first member of that family to graduate from college. He has a degree in Accounting. Know what he does for a living? He followed in the family business, and bought out Pap's logging business when Pap wanted to retire. He doesn't feel like he wasted his education, but has said to me that he might have done it differently if he had it to do over again.

I personally couldn't have achieved my current career, which has been my goal for much of my life, without my formal education. You can't be a Mechanical Engineer though a (formal or informal) apprenticeship track, at least not in the modern world. So, for me, formal education was a must. That doesn't mean I completely neglected learning, listening, and absorbing as much as I could, and still thankfully can, from my Pap Hart, each and every time I'm around him.

I absolutely agree that both types of "intelligence" are important, and unfortunately rarely found together. My own "mental slang" for differentiating the two defines "book smart" as the "education level" or "intelligence," and someone's "street smarts" or "experience smarts" as their "wisdom." Hence, my statement regarding my Pap's wisdom. My wife and I have a theory that an inverse relationship exists between "intelligence" and "wisdom." We've known a fair sampling of people who have an extremely high "intelligence," who are absolutely lacking in common sense or other common indicators of "wisdom," and vice versa.

/TL;DR - I agree. Education and Intelligence are neither mutually inclusive, nor mutually exclusive.
 
2013-10-14 03:31:02 PM  

Loaf's Tray: slapmastered: Frankly, I'll trust my Pap Hart farther than I'd ever trust any weatherman on the face of the planet. My Pap kept a weather diary for longer than I've been alive. Every day, recording temperature, humidity, cloud-cover, barometric pressure, and precipitation totals. The man has an uncanny ability to assess what the weather is going to do, simply because he has observed it in its beauty and fury for so long. He swears by, and can usually explain the root of, a lot of these "old wives tales" regarding weather and when to plant and when not to plant.

When we asked him about a month ago at his 80th birthday celebration/picnic what he thought this winter would be like?

"Cold." Was the first word out of his mouth. "Early, and cold."

...I'm making sure my house is well sealed this winter.

/Seriously, the man only has a 6th grade education, but he's by far and away the wisest man I've ever known. It is my greatest honor to be named after him, as the eldest son of the eldest son.
//I will be heartbroken on the day he passes.

Buck up, maybe he'll get hit by a bus and you can call him "Pap Smear"...


2/10.

I don't appreciate being made light of, but I put it out there first, so I'll take my lumps. ...I larfed at the pun, however.
 
2013-10-14 03:35:03 PM  
I've seen a lot of them around here and the lighter brown band in the middle does look bigger.
 
2013-10-14 03:37:23 PM  

sno man: one sentence missing from the article for the curious:
"According to the Old Farmer's Almanac, the longer the middle brown band, the milder and shorter the coming winter; the shorter the brown band, the longer and more severe winter will be."
So the stock photo isn't from this year either.
good effort John Beauge!


I found this guy a couple weeks ago. SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING!!
spacebison.com /Yeah I know it's a caterpillar of a Giant Leopard Moth, not the usual Isabella Tiger Moth.
 
2013-10-14 03:38:17 PM  

abfalter: It is gonna be a rough winter:


Maybe a long cold winter will give some authors enough indoor time to FINISH THAT GODDAMN BOOK SERIES ALREADY!!!
 
2013-10-14 03:40:47 PM  

big pig peaches: abfalter: It is gonna be a rough winter:

Maybe a long cold winter will give some authors enough indoor time to FINISH THAT GODDAMN BOOK SERIES ALREADY!!!


Would be nice....
 
2013-10-14 03:44:08 PM  

big pig peaches: abfalter: It is gonna be a rough winter:

Maybe a long cold winter will give some authors enough indoor time to FINISH THAT GODDAMN BOOK SERIES ALREADY!!!


You know who else had a long cold winter?

userserve-ak.last.fm

Cinderella, that's who.
 
2013-10-14 03:44:54 PM  

Burr: Arkanaut: phaseolus: Caterpillars. Are. Not. Worms.

Sea horses aren't horses either.

[i.qkme.me image 300x400]


Actually, Rhode Island is/was an island, now referred to as Aquidneck Island.
 
2013-10-14 03:47:30 PM  

stuhayes2010: tlchwi02: the only one i've seen was completely brown. so i have no idea what the heck that means

The first one I found, yesterday, was solid black.


Same here. No orange band at all.

We're doomed!
 
2013-10-14 03:48:43 PM  

dittybopper: big pig peaches: abfalter: It is gonna be a rough winter:

Maybe a long cold winter will give some authors enough indoor time to FINISH THAT GODDAMN BOOK SERIES ALREADY!!!

You know who else had a long cold winter?

[userserve-ak.last.fm image 394x480]

Cinderella, that's who.


that's for sure. Almost every concert I went to that year, they were the opening act or on the bill
 
2013-10-14 03:51:59 PM  

slapmastered: Frankly, I'll trust my Pap Hart farther than I'd ever trust any weatherman on the face of the planet. My Pap kept a weather diary for longer than I've been alive. Every day, recording temperature, humidity, cloud-cover, barometric pressure, and precipitation totals. The man has an uncanny ability to assess what the weather is going to do, simply because he has observed it in its beauty and fury for so long. He swears by, and can usually explain the root of, a lot of these "old wives tales" regarding weather and when to plant and when not to plant.

When we asked him about a month ago at his 80th birthday celebration/picnic what he thought this winter would be like?

"Cold." Was the first word out of his mouth. "Early, and cold."

...I'm making sure my house is well sealed this winter.

/Seriously, the man only has a 6th grade education, but he's by far and away the wisest man I've ever known. It is my greatest honor to be named after him, as the eldest son of the eldest son.
//I will be heartbroken on the day he passes.


I'm sure the man is a lovely person, and kudos for you for the deep respect you afford him.
However, you should look up something called 'bias confirmation'.
 
2013-10-14 03:55:03 PM  

namatad: "we still are attaining 110 percent accuracy,"
AKA - we dont know how numbers work.


img.fark.net
 
2013-10-14 03:55:13 PM  

slapmastered: When we asked him about a month ago at his 80th birthday celebration/picnic what he thought this winter would be like?

"Cold." Was the first word out of his mouth. "Early, and cold."


Congratulations. After 80 years, he realizes that winters are cold.

What are his thoughts on the wetness of water?
 
2013-10-14 03:57:49 PM  
All these old wives tales are based on the same method. The observed phenomona is not a predictor but rather the result of the previous spring and summer weather. To that extent some of them may be fairly accurate in that the spring and summer weather may well indicate the expected winter.
 
2013-10-14 04:00:11 PM  
Saying "cold" qualifies you as a weather genius?

In a place where the average temperature falls into the category of "cold" every year?
 
2013-10-14 04:01:08 PM  

DesertDemonWY: dittybopper: big pig peaches: abfalter: It is gonna be a rough winter:

Maybe a long cold winter will give some authors enough indoor time to FINISH THAT GODDAMN BOOK SERIES ALREADY!!!

You know who else had a long cold winter?

[userserve-ak.last.fm image 394x480]

Cinderella, that's who.

that's for sure. Almost every concert I went to that year, they were the opening act or on the bill


"Gyspy Road" was one of the first songs I learned how to play on the guitar.
 
2013-10-14 04:19:05 PM  

Pants full of macaroni!!: [blog.cleveland.com image 453x641]

Disapproves of calling woolly bears "woolly worms".  Otherwise, approves of this thread.



Came for Dick Goddard, left satisfied.
 
2013-10-14 04:23:50 PM  
I found an all-white one yesterday. WTF does that mean?

(His name is "Robert" if anyone cares)
 
2013-10-14 04:28:24 PM  
I've been seeing quite a few wooly worms lately. Most of them have been solid brown, with no black on the ends at all.
 
2013-10-14 04:39:20 PM  
I'm a Persimmon seed man myself.  Also a Dapper Dan man.
 
2013-10-14 04:40:53 PM  

kwame: Saying "cold" qualifies you as a weather genius?

In a place where the average temperature falls into the category of "cold" every year?


Define "cold".  A January's 50 in Florida is cold, but 50s in Minnesota is mild.  Snowy doesn't mean cold either, and it can get too cold to snow.  Winters don't always mean cold.  There can be mild winters, or rainy winters.  A few years ago we had crocuses blooming in January, in the Northeast, since the winter was so mild.  What his grandfather implied is that it will likely be below averages temps, starting earlier than anticipated.  Even if the average temperature is 30 degrees, having days fall in the teens-20s will make it seem colder than typical.  Having them start weeks earlier or lasting weeks later than the norm can affect planting, travel, or home repairs.
 
2013-10-14 05:00:16 PM  

Duck_of_Doom: Define "cold". A January's 50 in Florida is cold, but 50s in Minnesota is mild. Snowy doesn't mean cold either, and it can get too cold to snow. Winters don't always mean cold. There can be mild winters, or rainy winters. A few years ago we had crocuses blooming in January, in the Northeast, since the winter was so mild. What his grandfather implied is that it will likely be below averages temps, starting earlier than anticipated. Even if the average temperature is 30 degrees, having days fall in the teens-20s will make it seem colder than typical. Having them start weeks earlier or lasting weeks later than the norm can affect planting, travel, or home repairs.


You know his grandfather?  That's the only explanation as to how you understand that he implied something and what that implication was.
 
2013-10-14 05:00:51 PM  
Honestly, the poor old bastard is probably tired of everyone in his family only ever talking to him about the weather.
 
2013-10-14 05:19:18 PM  

Pants full of macaroni!!: Disapproves of calling woolly bears "woolly worms".  Otherwise, approves of this thread.


Grew up with this ... u win +1 intetnets for posting Dick Goddard's pic

/ all fwuzzy caterpillars are moth caterpillars
 
2013-10-14 05:32:42 PM  

Duck_of_Doom: and it can get too cold to snow


No, it can't. It can, however, be too dry to snow. And yes, while cold air tends to be dryer, an influx of moisture from elsewhere can easily result in snowfall in the previously "too cold to snow" area.
 
2013-10-14 05:48:25 PM  
RIP, Gil Whitney.  You left us far too soon.

/Farkers of a certain age who grew up in SW Ohio know who I'm talking about
 
2013-10-14 06:20:57 PM  

Duck_of_Doom: Snowy doesn't mean cold either, and it can get too cold to snow.


That's actually a misconception.  There is nowhere on Earth where it's "too cold to snow".  What causes that misconception, though, is the fact that the lowest temperatures tend to occur on the clearest nights, because of radiational cooling.  It's the fair weather that causes the lower temps, not the low temps preventing the snow.
 
2013-10-14 06:38:49 PM  
 
2013-10-14 07:19:38 PM  
thewrenproject.files.wordpress.com

This winter will be a bit dry.
 
2013-10-15 12:44:01 AM  

Arachnophobe: This is an ooooolllllld superstition, I remember hearing about it first in grade school back in the 80s.

And they're 'wooly bears', not wooly worms. But that might be a Northeast thing.


I cam here to complain about the same thing, and I'm from Upstate New York.
 
2013-10-15 01:52:57 AM  

Mandapants: Arachnophobe: This is an ooooolllllld superstition, I remember hearing about it first in grade school back in the 80s.

And they're 'wooly bears', not wooly worms. But that might be a Northeast thing.

I cam here to complain about the same thing, and I'm from Upstate New York.


Same here. I was telling my five year old about the woolly bears. "They're the ones you see squished all over the road."
 
2013-10-15 08:22:22 AM  

kwame: Duck_of_Doom: Define "cold". A January's 50 in Florida is cold, but 50s in Minnesota is mild. Snowy doesn't mean cold either, and it can get too cold to snow. Winters don't always mean cold. There can be mild winters, or rainy winters. A few years ago we had crocuses blooming in January, in the Northeast, since the winter was so mild. What his grandfather implied is that it will likely be below averages temps, starting earlier than anticipated. Even if the average temperature is 30 degrees, having days fall in the teens-20s will make it seem colder than typical. Having them start weeks earlier or lasting weeks later than the norm can affect planting, travel, or home repairs.

You know his grandfather?  That's the only explanation as to how you understand that he implied something and what that implication was.


I'm impressed. I drew out kwame. How's the little woman, by the way?

Kidding aside...D_o_Dbasically nailed it. And also, my Pap is a man of very few words. He wastes none of them. Weather is far from the only thing we ask his advice on, also. ...As to how he understood the implication, I dunno, maybe there are other members of my family on Fark and I don't know it?

/Or you could have just been being snarky...
//thatsthejoke.jpg
 
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