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(Arizona State University)   ASU study placed ads for sex in Craigslist to see how many men from cities across the nation go online to look for sex. Stiff competition, but Houston shot out in front with 21% while San Francisco men limped in coming behind the others with 0.6%   (copp.asu.edu) divider line 39
    More: Interesting  
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3794 clicks; posted to Main » on 14 Oct 2013 at 9:31 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-10-14 08:32:37 AM  
Because they were ads for sex with women?
 
2013-10-14 08:51:15 AM  
Apparently, even sexual deviance is bigger in Texas.
 
2013-10-14 09:17:24 AM  
This entire study is an absolutely absurd example of assumption gone mad. Yes, ASU, 21 percent of men in Houston are soliciting sex online because you got 19 unique phone calls.
 
2013-10-14 09:32:38 AM  
Why would the San Fran men bother, they have Grindr.
 
2013-10-14 09:34:48 AM  

Lucky LaRue: Apparently, even sexual deviance is bigger in Texas.


Big tea bagger state.
 
2013-10-14 09:34:49 AM  
Everyone knows craigslist is for cops, they should have used backpage.
 
2013-10-14 09:35:34 AM  

Pocket Ninja: This entire study is an absolutely absurd example of assumption gone mad. Yes, ASU, 21 percent of men in Houston are soliciting sex online because you got 19 unique phone calls.


We live in the Idiocracy.
 
2013-10-14 09:38:53 AM  

HotIgneous Intruder: Pocket Ninja: This entire study is an absolutely absurd example of assumption gone mad. Yes, ASU, 21 percent of men in Houston are soliciting sex online because you got 19 unique phone calls.

We live in the Idiocracy.


To be fair, they were sexy time phone calls and I wasn't wearing pants when I clicked the article.
 
2013-10-14 09:39:10 AM  
It's because you can't throw a rock with out getting laid in San Francisco. Who needs Craigslist?
 
2013-10-14 09:42:42 AM  
Done in one.
 
2013-10-14 09:43:04 AM  
San Francisco probably scored so low in part because all the mongers use redbook. Or they don't go online at all, since prostitutes are easier to find in person than in most American cities.

One thing I'm sure of is that SF has more prostitution activity, not less.
 
2013-10-14 09:44:06 AM  
They claim that 21% of all men in Houston look for sex on craigslist? Who's ass did they pull that number out of?
 
2013-10-14 09:47:04 AM  
Craigslist casual encounters tri-fecta in play?
 
2013-10-14 09:47:10 AM  

Pocket Ninja: This entire study is an absolutely absurd example of assumption gone mad. Yes, ASU, 21 percent of men in Houston are soliciting sex online because you got 19 unique phone calls.


abhorrent1: They claim that 21% of all men in Houston look for sex on craigslist? Who's ass did they pull that number out of?


There is a reason that these kids go to ASU and not a real university
 
2013-10-14 09:49:09 AM  

LarryDan43: Everyone knows craigslist is for cops, they should have used backpage.


They did:    We placed our ads in the exact same place (craigslist. com, casual encounters section and backpage.com for each of the 15 cities in the escort section) one week apart (Friday at 2pm local time).

Pocket Ninja: This entire study is an absolutely absurd example of assumption gone mad. Yes, ASU, 21 percent of men in Houston are soliciting sex online because you got 19 unique phone calls.


The methodology used (capture/recapture) was developed for estimating population numbers for wildlife biologists, and it is pretty good at that.  It appears that the authors adapted it fairly well for this purpose, but the confidence levels for the Houston sample are quite large by most standards.
 
2013-10-14 09:57:57 AM  
Couple things: I am guessing they failed to take into consideration the extent to which law enforcement pursues these activities. I recently saw a documentary about San Fran PD going after brothels and sex traffickers and I am guessing San Franciscans know they do to, while perhaps it isn't such a priority in Houston

Second, I am not going to read beyond the abstract, but I am skeptical of the model they are using to generalize to the larger population. One in 20 guys trolling for whores online just seems high to me, particularly when they only received just over 1000 response across. 15 cities.
 
2013-10-14 09:58:41 AM  
Unless there's also an equally large pool of women searching Craigslist for sex, this just sounds like a big Texan circle jerk.
 
2013-10-14 10:04:02 AM  

Pocket Ninja: This entire study is an absolutely absurd example of assumption gone mad. Yes, ASU, 21 percent of men in Houston are soliciting sex online because you got 19 unique phone calls.


This.
 
2013-10-14 10:11:52 AM  
Craigslist started in San Francisco, so the men here have had more time to learn what happens when you try to get sex from Craigslist.
 
2013-10-14 10:22:49 AM  
I know the stereotype, but even as a straight male, I've had more luck getting laid in San Francisco than in any other place I've lived (4 countries, and 5 US states). People are just easier to talk to here, unless you are in Marina which is all tech bros and bro hoes.
 
2013-10-14 10:30:36 AM  
KC representing. We are persistent and technologically challenged, but polite enough to leave a voicemail. Yup, that sounds like us.
 
2013-10-14 10:34:33 AM  
Archae hippy:.They did:    We placed our ads in the exact same place (craigslist. com, casual encounters section and backpage.com for each of the 15 cities in the escort section) one week apart (Friday at 2pm local time).


That's where tourists in SF look for sex.  If you are a resident, you just have to walk out the front door.

/was SF resident for 12 years and just went to the sex club like everyone else
 
2013-10-14 10:43:23 AM  

abhorrent1: They claim that 21% of all men in Houston look for sex on craigslist? Who's ass did they pull that number out of?


 They had to pay a bit extra to do that..
 
2013-10-14 10:57:34 AM  
A wealthy right-wing town has more furtive sexual lawbreakers than a LW town?  Color me astounded.
 
2013-10-14 11:28:14 AM  
On average, within the fifteen markets explored, one out over every 20 males over the age of 18 in a metropolitan city area was soliciting online sex ads.

Okay, so not only do you make huge extrapolations from a relatively small n value, but you also can't even be arsed to parse your freaking abstract in an intelligible way.

Also they don't know how semicolons work.
 
2013-10-14 11:30:37 AM  
If ASU were to do the study of farkers, it would probably be 100%.
 
2013-10-14 11:35:06 AM  
I think the dude from Backroom Casting Couch has already tested response by females.
 
2013-10-14 11:46:26 AM  

drivingsouth: I think the dude from Backroom Casting Couch has already tested response by females.


including an ASU student
 
2013-10-14 12:28:03 PM  
Did Matthew Barnett, rapist of Central Missouri University, respond to any of these ads?
 
2013-10-14 01:22:05 PM  

TwistedIvory: On average, within the fifteen markets explored, one out over every 20 males over the age of 18 in a metropolitan city area was soliciting online sex ads.

Okay, so not only do you make huge extrapolations from a relatively small n value, but you also can't even be arsed to parse your freaking abstract in an intelligible way.

Also they don't know how semicolons work.

"


The only reason I think this study was published was that it helps justify the story below.  If the conclusion was that hardly anyone solicited sex online then nobody would have ever heard about the study.

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2013/10/entrapped-when-craigslist -p redator-stings-go-too-far/2/

Quote: "The week begins with ICAC-trained chatters who post ads online and then engage those who reply. The attention is lavished on Internet sites like Craigslist and Backpage.com because online classified ads have become a go-to location for men seeking sex. An August 2013 study from the Arizona State University School of Social Work examined the 15 largest cities in the US and generated estimates for how many men sought sex from these online classified ads. "On average, within the fifteen markets explored, one out of every 20 males over the age of 18 in a metropolitan city area was soliciting online sex ads," the study found. "The findings ranged from approximately one out of every five males (Houston, 21.4 percent) to less than one out of 166 males (San Francisco, 0.6 percent)."
 
2013-10-14 01:54:35 PM  
Archae hippy:
Pocket Ninja: This entire study is an absolutely absurd example of assumption gone mad. Yes, ASU, 21 percent of men in Houston are soliciting sex online because you got 19 unique phone calls.

The methodology used (capture/recapture) was developed for estimating population numbers for wildlife biologists, and it is pretty good at that.  It appears that the authors adapted it fairly well for this purpose, but the confidence levels for the Houston sample are quite large by most standards.



Their methodology makes no sense whatsoever.  If you pick a section of woods and count how many deer are in it, you can then use that to estimate how many deer are in the larger area.  How does this in any way relate to what they did?

They got 19 texts or phone calls in Houston, and decided that means that 21% of men in Houston are looking for prostitutes online.  There is no possible valid way to reach that conclusion.  You can't just multiply the number of calls they got by the total number of ads (which were 518 in a day), because the same men may have replied to 50 ads.  In addition, there's no way of knowing how many men were replying to the other ads, because many of the other ads may have been very poorly written or otherwise unappealing (theirs was designed to be appealing).

You also can't look at the number of men using craigslist and the number of men supposedly using craiglist to look for prostitutes, and generalize to the number of men in overall society looking for prostitutes, as it may well be that craiglist is the major place where men look online for prostitutes.  Similarly, if you decide to stand right next to the only water source in the area while looking for deer, your estimate of deer in the area would be grossly exaggerated.

Note that this study was "Funded by Thorn: Digital Defenders of Children, ASU Office of Sex Trafficking Intervention Research".  It would appear that they decided to create some bogus statistics which they could later quote to push their position.
 
2013-10-14 03:46:27 PM  

2chris2: Archae hippy:
Pocket Ninja: This entire study is an absolutely absurd example of assumption gone mad. Yes, ASU, 21 percent of men in Houston are soliciting sex online because you got 19 unique phone calls.

The methodology used (capture/recapture) was developed for estimating population numbers for wildlife biologists, and it is pretty good at that.  It appears that the authors adapted it fairly well for this purpose, but the confidence levels for the Houston sample are quite large by most standards.


Their methodology makes no sense whatsoever.  If you pick a section of woods and count how many deer are in it, you can then use that to estimate how many deer are in the larger area.  How does this in any way relate to what they did?

They got 19 texts or phone calls in Houston, and decided that means that 21% of men in Houston are looking for prostitutes online.  There is no possible valid way to reach that conclusion.  You can't just multiply the number of calls they got by the total number of ads (which were 518 in a day), because the same men may have replied to 50 ads.  In addition, there's no way of knowing how many men were replying to the other ads, because many of the other ads may have been very poorly written or otherwise unappealing (theirs was designed to be appealing).

You also can't look at the number of men using craigslist and the number of men supposedly using craiglist to look for prostitutes, and generalize to the number of men in overall society looking for prostitutes, as it may well be that craiglist is the major place where men look online for prostitutes.  Similarly, if you decide to stand right next to the only water source in the area while looking for deer, your estimate of deer in the area would be grossly exaggerated.

Note that this study was "Funded by Thorn: Digital Defenders of Children, ASU Office of Sex Trafficking Intervention Research".  It would appear that they decided to create some bogus statistics which they could later quo ...


I went back to try and figure out the numbers, and it turns out they are in fact full of shiat.

I will defend the capture/recapture methodology, it has worked pretty well for wildlife biologists for over half a century.   The deer example is actually a pretty poor one, as you are not sampling an area and applying the number to a larger area; you are sampling the same area twice for elusive animals and estimating the number of animals in the exact same area.  Wiki explains it better:   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_and_recapture

In this study it appears they didn't "recapture" anybody in Houston (nobody who responded to the first ad responded to the second ad there), which wildly inflated the numbers.  The formula for total population has the recapture number in the denominator, which is "recaptured +1".  Effectively they multiplied all the responses, then multiplied by the number of ads, then divided by 1.
 
2013-10-14 04:07:03 PM  

BolshyGreatYarblocks: A wealthy right-wing town has more furtive sexual lawbreakers than a LW town?  Color me astounded.


Houston is hardly "right-wing."

For example, in the last competitive mayoral election, the winning Democratic candidate got about 31% of the vote.  The second place Democratic candidate got about 25% of the vote.  The third place Democratic candidate got about 23%.  The token Republican took  4th, with 20%.  (These don't quite add up to 100% because I rounded the totals.)

Most big cities are comfortably left-leaning, even in Texas.  The reason Texas is so red overall is that it has  lots of rural and suburban people.
 
2013-10-14 05:52:20 PM  
PDF?
 
2013-10-14 06:13:51 PM  

NetOwl: BolshyGreatYarblocks: A wealthy right-wing town has more furtive sexual lawbreakers than a LW town?  Color me astounded.

Houston is hardly "right-wing."

For example, in the last competitive mayoral election, the winning Democratic candidate got about 31% of the vote.  The second place Democratic candidate got about 25% of the vote.  The third place Democratic candidate got about 23%.  The token Republican took  4th, with 20%.  (These don't quite add up to 100% because I rounded the totals.)

Most big cities are comfortably left-leaning, even in Texas.  The reason Texas is so red overall is that it has  lots of rural and suburban people.


What about the oil rich?  Tom DeLay?  If Houston is Dem. now, then things have changed more than I'd think possible.
 
2013-10-14 06:36:01 PM  
Things that get me here:
This is only CL and BP, but was this about men who seek sex online, or men who seek prostitutes? If the former, there are many dating sites out there where 'casual sex' and 'one night stand' are part of their matching choices. If the latter, there are also many other sites to add to it. 20% would be just for those two sites, so all things considered, would all sites be 30%? 40%? Even more?

Either way, CL and BP are scary places. It's still much safer to go to your friendly neighborhood bar at midnight, pick up some drunk woman and take her home, and a heck of a lot more legal (even if she is so drunk she won't remember the night before, was so drunk she had poor judgment and went home with you instead of the hot guy hitting on her all night,  wakes up regretting it, probably won't remember it, and you still have the same risk of STDs, pregnancy and getting robbed).

And this is ASU - 'Nuff Sed!
 
2013-10-14 06:53:59 PM  

EZbaked: It's because you can't throw a rock with out getting laid in San Francisco. Who needs Craigslist?


I must be throwing the wrong kinds of rocks.  :(
 
2013-10-14 08:00:33 PM  

miss diminutive: Unless there's also an equally large pool of women searching Craigslist for sex, this just sounds like a big Texan circle jerk.


Women only have to say yes.
 
2013-10-14 11:36:55 PM  
Archae hippy:

I went back to try and figure out the numbers, and it turns out they are in fact full of shiat.

I will defend the capture/recapture methodology, it has worked pretty well for wildlife biologists for over half a century.   The deer example is actually a pretty poor one, as you are not sampling an area and applying the number to a larger area; you are sampling the same area twice for elusive animals and estimating the number of animals in the exact same area.  Wiki explains it better:   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_and_recapture

In this study it appears they didn't "recapture" anybody in Houston (nobody who responded to the first ad responded to the second ad there), which wildly inflated the numbers.  The formula for total population has the recapture number in the denominator, which is "recaptured +1".  Effectively they multiplied all the responses, then multiplied by the number of ads, then divided by 1.



Now that I understand what they were trying to do, it's even worse than I thought.  Mark and recapture is totally inappropriate to this situation.  For it to work, you must take a random sampling of the population, mark it, then take another random sampling of the population and check to see what percentage of them are marked.

In this situation, they didn't take a random sample of the population either time.  They posted an ad, which brought in a bunch of responses.  Keep in mind, this does not bring in a random sampling of the craigslist/backpage men looking for prostitutes.  This brings in those men who find that particular ad to be appealing (and looking at backpage, almost all the ads have pictures of the women).  Then they posted the same ad again, which the same men are going to be likely to find appealing.  Or then again, maybe not, as maybe after being ignored the first time, they won't bother the second time.  Who knows.  One way or another, though, they are utterly failing to get a random sampling of the population both times, which tells you absolutely nothing.

I don't see any way of altering their method to get useful statistics, either.  This just isn't going to work.
 
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