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(The Dish)   The poll of polls for the 2014 national Congressional race shows a massive swing toward the Democrats   (dish.andrewsullivan.com) divider line 115
    More: Obvious, Democrats  
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2607 clicks; posted to Politics » on 14 Oct 2013 at 9:35 AM (40 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-10-14 08:50:30 AM
The GOP will have this spun nicely by then and the truth about this being Obama's secret deal with the devil and the tri-lateral UN black helicopter gunship manufacturer's political action committee will have come to light.
 
2013-10-14 09:28:21 AM
Polls like these never account for the short attention span of Americans.
 
2013-10-14 09:33:43 AM

stpauler: Polls like these never account for the short attention span of Americans.


the thing is, the tea party is quixotic and insane, it'll keep pulling bullshiat stunts like this right up through november 2014, keeping their batshiattery front-and-center for the electorate.
 
2013-10-14 09:35:16 AM

stpauler: Polls like these never account for the short attention span of Americans.


Yep.  All that matters is that the ads will show Joe Candidate with his family, note that he is an 'outsider' to Washington and a businessman who will run government like a business, and remind you that he shares your values.

/Doesn't matter if Joe Candidate shut down the government or went on a truck stop-prostitute murdering and cannibalization spree in every state from Oregon to North Dakota, the dude will be elected.
 
2013-10-14 09:36:06 AM

FlashHarry: stpauler: Polls like these never account for the short attention span of Americans.

the thing is, the tea party is quixotic and insane, it'll keep pulling bullshiat stunts like this right up through november 2014, keeping their batshiattery front-and-center for the electorate.


You forget a very important point.

In 2014, Obama will still be black.
 
2013-10-14 09:36:32 AM
Call me cynical, but I'll believe it when I see it.

/pretty sure i won't see it
 
2013-10-14 09:37:02 AM
Those look pretty skewed to me.  They need a poll that shows the Republicans being more popular to balance this out.
 
2013-10-14 09:37:09 AM
Gerrymandering can only go so far...
 
d23 [TotalFark]
2013-10-14 09:37:15 AM

sprawl15: FlashHarry: stpauler: Polls like these never account for the short attention span of Americans.

the thing is, the tea party is quixotic and insane, it'll keep pulling bullshiat stunts like this right up through november 2014, keeping their batshiattery front-and-center for the electorate.

You forget a very important point.

In 2014, Obama will still be black.


Checkmate.
 
2013-10-14 09:38:14 AM

Pants full of macaroni!!: Call me cynical, but I'll believe it when I see it.

/pretty sure i won't see it


Oh, don't be so pessimistic. I think we'll be pleasantly surprised. We might gain three, even four seats on a national level.
 
2013-10-14 09:38:59 AM
glossynews.com

Stay on target!
 
2013-10-14 09:38:59 AM
A 10% swing in public opinion results in what, about 3 House seats changing hands? The Democrats would need about a 30% net swing in public opinion in order to have a chance of taking control
 
2013-10-14 09:39:13 AM
OH MY GOD I AM SO SURPRISE
 
d23 [TotalFark]
2013-10-14 09:39:16 AM

Rapmaster2000: Those look pretty skewed to me.  They need a poll that shows the Republicans being more popular to balance this out.


media2.s-nbcnews.com

"I don't think that's where the country is at right now."

Romney was so successful by listening to ONLY to the echo chamber, why not do the same thing, eh?
 
2013-10-14 09:39:18 AM
The Democrats running for the House got more votes in 2012 than did Republicans, and still didn't get a majority.
 
2013-10-14 09:39:42 AM
Man, I can't wait to see how the Democrats fail to capitalize on yet another advantage.
 
2013-10-14 09:39:57 AM

stpauler: Polls like these never account for the short attention span of Americans.


True, this shutdown / GOP pants-sh*tting needed to happen 1 year from now.
 
2013-10-14 09:40:01 AM

AMonkey'sUncle: The Democrats running for the House got more votes in 2012 than did Republicans, and still didn't get a majority.


And they need to win by at least a 6-8% spread this time around to get seats, too. Which is totally fair and awesome.
 
d23 [TotalFark]
2013-10-14 09:41:34 AM

AMonkey'sUncle: The Democrats running for the House got more votes in 2012 than did Republicans, and still didn't get a majority.


On the other hand, Michelle Bachmann is from the magical congressional district of Derp and *she* almost lost last time.  So eventually you piss off everyone but that solid 6% of idiots.  It's just a question of HOW idiotic the country has become... and that sure worries me.
 
2013-10-14 09:42:19 AM
How exactly will this help the US when they default in 3 days time?
 
2013-10-14 09:42:48 AM
www.k12tshirt.comupload.wikimedia.org
 
2013-10-14 09:42:50 AM
I would like to see the republicans lose big in 2014 but if you look at that chart it shows them this far apart in the past only to have it close up again during fake scandal summer. Based on the effectiveness of them I would bet after this is all over we will see another barrage.
 
d23 [TotalFark]
2013-10-14 09:42:58 AM

coeyagi: stpauler: Polls like these never account for the short attention span of Americans.

True, this shutdown / GOP pants-sh*tting needed to happen 1 year from now.


If we are going to allow big money campaigning and debate by 30 second advertisement, EVERY advert should remind people of what happened.  Again, the U.S. is full of idiots, and I am sure they will focus on the next season of "The Voice" and forget about this.
 
2013-10-14 09:43:19 AM
funnycatwallpapers.com
 
2013-10-14 09:43:40 AM

Headso: I would like to see the republicans lose big in 2014 but if you look at that chart it shows them this far apart in the past only to have it close up again during fake scandal summer. Based on the effectiveness of them I would bet after this is all over we will see another barrage.


Maybe, but it seems that Republicans tend to screw up things right around Oct, which is just before elections.  So who knows.
 
2013-10-14 09:44:13 AM
(R) republitards suck.

They are the special olympians of politics.
 
d23 [TotalFark]
2013-10-14 09:44:35 AM

LasersHurt: AMonkey'sUncle: The Democrats running for the House got more votes in 2012 than did Republicans, and still didn't get a majority.

And they need to win by at least a 6-8% spread this time around to get seats, too. Which is totally fair and awesome.


Unskew the vote!

pixel.nymag.com
 
2013-10-14 09:45:24 AM
That's awesome. Can we please have our paychecks now? Because I didn't have a "GOP Shutdown" savings account, and the normal one I have is getting mighty low
 
2013-10-14 09:45:58 AM

Pants full of macaroni!!: Call me cynical, but I'll believe it when I see it.

/pretty sure i won't see it


Pretty much.

Sometimes it feels like the default position of this country is to the right wing and you need to spend massive amount of energy just to go a step to the left for five minutes.
 
2013-10-14 09:46:06 AM
While I agree that the electoral significance of this information at this point in time is slight, I would suggest that it does show that the public at large is seeing through the teatard BS.
 
2013-10-14 09:46:17 AM

LasersHurt: AMonkey'sUncle: The Democrats running for the House got more votes in 2012 than did Republicans, and still didn't get a majority.

And they need to win by at least a 6-8% spread this time around to get seats, too. Which is totally fair and awesome.


There's another way to pick up seats. The Moderate GOP and the Tea Party could go into a civil war because the moderates couldn't defund Obamacare. Just a handful of Tea Party candidates could give the House to the Dems by refusing to stop campaigning after a primary loss and causing three way general election contests.
 
2013-10-14 09:46:28 AM
republicans have better, more well spun political ads that stick with people. The dems SHOULD hammer all of this home next year with an ad that runs for 30 seconds that just says "remember how the republicans crashed the country last year??"

but they won't.
 
2013-10-14 09:47:23 AM

AliceBToklasLives: stpauler: Polls like these never account for the short attention span of Americans.

Yep.  All that matters is that the ads will show Joe Candidate with his family, note that he is an 'outsider' to Washington and a businessman who will run government like a business, and remind you that he shares your values.

/Doesn't matter if Joe Candidate shut down the government or went on a truck stop-prostitute murdering and cannibalization spree in every state from Oregon to North Dakota, the dude will be elected.


It's only 3 states, that's hardly a spree. I'm sure I've voted for someone who made it all the way to Wisconsin from Oregon.
 
2013-10-14 09:47:24 AM

FlashHarry: the thing is, the tea party is quixotic and insane, it'll keep pulling bullshiat stunts like this right up through november 2014, keeping their batshiattery front-and-center for the electorate.


Yep. They'll read these tea leaves as them not being conservative enough.
 
2013-10-14 09:47:32 AM
Gee, I wonder why?
 
2013-10-14 09:47:35 AM

Skleenar: While I agree that the electoral significance of this information at this point in time is slight, I would suggest that it does show that the public at large is seeing through the teatard BS.


How messed up is it that I am surprised? Pleasantly so, of course, but to see the public actually reacting to their shenanigans is a bit of a shock. This isn't their first act.
 
2013-10-14 09:47:35 AM

stpauler: Polls like these never account for the short attention span of Americans.


This. They are working on causing some decades-long damage though, so that will still be remembered in 13 months.

This current fiasco is going to result in the biggest increase in federal spending (due to significant increases in borrowing costs and the drunken binge of the upcoming Democratic majority) that the country has seen since WW2.
 
2013-10-14 09:47:50 AM

Boo Radley: There's another way to pick up seats. The Moderate GOP and the Tea Party could go into a civil war because the moderates couldn't defund Obamacare. Just a handful of Tea Party candidates could give the House to the Dems by refusing to stop campaigning after a primary loss and causing three way general election contests.


Possible, but I doubt they'll have the funding to run as a 3rd party.  Most corporate contributors will pull funding the moment the primary is decided.
 
2013-10-14 09:49:05 AM
If I were George Soros, and for all you know I am, I'd form a front group to give cash to any Tea Party dumbshiat willing to run a three way campaign in competitive suburban Republican districts.
 
d23 [TotalFark]
2013-10-14 09:49:11 AM

SurfaceTension: FlashHarry: the thing is, the tea party is quixotic and insane, it'll keep pulling bullshiat stunts like this right up through november 2014, keeping their batshiattery front-and-center for the electorate.

Yep. They'll read these tea leaves as them not being conservative enough.


"NOT PURE ENOUGH!" is a disease.  It kills political organizations.  But the tea party operates at DERPCON 1, so are we going to survive long enough for these people to eat themselves?
 
2013-10-14 09:49:27 AM

AliceBToklasLives: stpauler: Polls like these never account for the short attention span of Americans.

Yep.   All that matters is that the ads will show Joe Candidate with his family, note that he is an 'outsider' to Washington and a businessman who will run government like a business, and remind you that he shares your values.

/Doesn't matter if Joe Candidate shut down the government or went on a truck stop-prostitute murdering and cannibalization spree in every state from Oregon to North Dakota, the dude will be elected.


The dog, you fool! We have to get the dog in there! Someone find me a golden retriever IMMEDIATELY!
 
2013-10-14 09:50:53 AM

Boo Radley: If I were George Soros, and for all you know I am, I'd form a front group to give cash to any Tea Party dumbshiat willing to run a three way campaign in competitive suburban Republican districts.


narwhaler.com
 
d23 [TotalFark]
2013-10-14 09:51:38 AM

BMFPitt: This current fiasco is going to result in the biggest increase in federal spending (due to significant increases in borrowing costs and the drunken binge of the upcoming Democratic majority) that the country has seen since WW2.


Talking point alert... the Republicans like "drunken binge" spending as much as the Democrats... it's just a slight difference of what is spent on.  They love to spend money on weapons systems that even the Pentagon doesn't want.  They love their corporate giveaways.

So please... don't bring the Democratic "drunken sailor" argument into this.  It's going to happen no matter what party is in charge.
 
2013-10-14 09:54:07 AM
theeverlastinggopstoppers.com
"Oh, is that so? (suppressed laughter) Well, do have fun with that, then."
 
d23 [TotalFark]
2013-10-14 09:56:05 AM
scontent-b.xx.fbcdn.net
 
2013-10-14 09:56:19 AM
What's depressing is the movement of the polls between December and June.
 
2013-10-14 09:56:43 AM

LasersHurt: Skleenar: While I agree that the electoral significance of this information at this point in time is slight, I would suggest that it does show that the public at large is seeing through the teatard BS.

How messed up is it that I am surprised? Pleasantly so, of course, but to see the public actually reacting to their shenanigans is a bit of a shock. This isn't their first act.


Sometimes a meteor has to go through their roof for people to notice they have a leak.
 
2013-10-14 09:56:49 AM

NeverDrunk23: Sometimes it feels like the default position of this country is to the right wing and you need to spend massive amount of energy just to go a step to the left for five minutes.


It's basically geography.

Democratic votes come in high concentrations, in urban areas.  GOP votes come from more lightly populated areas, with, generally, a less significant concentration of GOP votes.  In some urban districts, you may get 80-90% Democratic votes, while it is rare to get 70-75% GOP votes in red districts.  That means, on the whole, there are fewer reliably democratic districts, and, therefore, fewer reliably democratic Congressmen.  But those few are much more reliably elected.

It's as if the democratic vote is pre-gerrymandered, even before the GOP gets in there to gerrymander it further. (And, of course, Democrats can and do gerrymander districts in states where they can).

This resultant bias means that the Democrats need to pull something like 4-6% more votes than the GOP to simply break even in representation, even before gerrymandering is taken into account.

However, gerrymandering is a double-edged sword.  Basically it is an attempt to dilute the vote enough to get enough razor thin victories in enough districts to ensure a larger number of representatives.  This means, however, that you create MORE vulnerable reps than before you gerrymandered.
 
2013-10-14 09:56:50 AM

Twist-42: republicans have better, more well spun political ads that stick with people. The dems SHOULD hammer all of this home next year with an ad that runs for 30 seconds that just says "remember how the republicans crashed the country last year??"

but they won't.


And the sad fact is, they could run that exact spot and most Americans would say "who did what now?"
 
2013-10-14 09:58:49 AM

Chabash: AliceBToklasLives: stpauler: Polls like these never account for the short attention span of Americans.

Yep.  All that matters is that the ads will show Joe Candidate with his family, note that he is an 'outsider' to Washington and a businessman who will run government like a business, and remind you that he shares your values.

/Doesn't matter if Joe Candidate shut down the government or went on a truck stop-prostitute murdering and cannibalization spree in every state from Oregon to North Dakota, the dude will be elected.

It's only 3 states, that's hardly a spree. I'm sure I've voted for someone who made it all the way to Wisconsin from Oregon.


4 states total.  But maybe Joe skipped one state cause Idaho whores taste like crap.
 
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