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(Rasmussen Reports)   Remember those polls showing generic Dems beating GOP incumbents from a couple days ago? Turns out calling your opponents arsonists and kidnappers might not be the greatest strategy after all   (rasmussenreports.com ) divider line
    More: Followup, GOP, Presidential Tracking Poll, opinion polls, incumbents  
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2190 clicks; posted to Politics » on 10 Oct 2013 at 9:51 AM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



167 Comments     (+0 »)
 
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2013-10-10 08:54:07 AM  
Rasmussen are just fantasy polls for people who care more about how a poll makes them feel than being accurate.
 
2013-10-10 08:55:15 AM  
Rasmussen, huh. Glad we got the unskewed numbers. Now we know it's more like +12% Dem
 
2013-10-10 09:01:50 AM  
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the week ending Sunday, October 6

lolaccurate
 
2013-10-10 09:02:08 AM  
1) The only fair comparison for trends in polling is to compare the results of one poll with the results from a poll taken by the same organization from a earlier time period.

2) As you can see from the historical listing of the past poll results, Rasmussen themselves find that the generic poll has been hovering around 40% to 40% since April of 2013.

3) Rasmussen is one of a few polling groups that weights the poll results based on their expectations of the makeup and demographics of the population and of political afficiliations, which typically makes the results skew more Republican than they typically would.

4) Rasmussen claims to have an "online survey tool" to reach people who abandoned landline telephones, however, there are no details available of what this online survey tool is or where it can be found.

5) In the 2012 election, Rasmussen has been statistically one of the least accurate polling organizations.
 
2013-10-10 09:02:13 AM  
 
2013-10-10 09:03:36 AM  
Remember those Rasmussen polls showing Republican candidates consistently doing better than reality turned out?

If I were a Democratic operative, I'd be pretty smug about a Rasmussen poll showing you in a dead heat.
 
2013-10-10 09:05:56 AM  
Wow.

Rasmussen is still a thing?
 
2013-10-10 09:14:51 AM  
Are they unskewed, because we only need unskewed polls here

/keep on farking that chicken GOP, 2014 is going to be a good year
 
2013-10-10 09:18:55 AM  
Romney is gonna win in a landslide.
 
2013-10-10 09:19:10 AM  
I'm still picking Romney. It's a lock.
 
2013-10-10 09:25:45 AM  
2.bp.blogspot.com
 
2013-10-10 09:29:19 AM  

Nadie_AZ: I'm still picking Romney. It's a lock.


Is President Romney at his desk?  Let's just call him to see what he thinks.  What do Rasmussen and Gallup have on his odds for reelection?

/unskewered
 
2013-10-10 09:40:38 AM  
Romney in a landslide!
 
2013-10-10 09:50:26 AM  

RexTalionis: 5) In the 2012 election, Rasmussen has been statistically one of the least accurate polling organizations.


And in 2010, too. In fact, Rasmussen's track record increasingly looks like a duff golfer who once hit a hole in one and has dined out on it ever since. Perhaps the best thing that can be said about Rasmussen is that they are so consistently wrong that you can actually extract pretty reliable predictions just by subtracting the known bias.

(As an aside, Gallup is even worse, which is astonishing for a firm with such a widely-known brand.)
 
2013-10-10 09:53:51 AM  
What the fark is a telephone?
 
2013-10-10 09:54:26 AM  

Bareefer Obonghit: A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the week ending Sunday, October 6

lolaccurate


Didn't Obama call republicans "arsonists and kidnappers" on the 7th?
 
2013-10-10 09:55:09 AM  
1) LOL! Rasmussen.
2) Outdate poll is outdated.
3) Article gave no data unless you give the $25.
4) LOL! Rasmussen.
 
2013-10-10 09:57:37 AM  
I was wondering when this crap would be greened.
 
2013-10-10 09:57:43 AM  
How can this even be believable when poll after poll shows the GOP's approval rating like 15 points below the Democrats'?
 
2013-10-10 09:58:01 AM  

Muta: Bareefer Obonghit: A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the week ending Sunday, October 6

lolaccurate

Didn't Obama call republicans "arsonists and kidnappers" on the 7th?


Yeah, but republicans did their kidnapping and announced their plans for arson before that, so the polls should show retroactively the side effects of Obama calling them what they were.
 
2013-10-10 09:59:05 AM  

Bareefer Obonghit: A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the week ending Sunday, October 6

lolaccurate


Um, you know how PPP and others do their polling, too, right?
 
2013-10-10 09:59:06 AM  

NeverDrunk23: I was wondering when this crap would be greened.


What you mean fark greenlights conservative bullshiat for no good reason?  I don' believe it.
 
2013-10-10 09:59:10 AM  

Muta: Bareefer Obonghit: A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the week ending Sunday, October 6

lolaccurate

Didn't Obama call republicans "arsonists and kidnappers" on the 7th?


Using landline phone surveys isn't very accurate. You'll likely not get a good enough cross-section of people from which to base your numbers. Or, you will need to adjust your numbers to take into account the demographics that don't own landlines. Young people and poor people (Democrats mostly) won't have landlines and therefore will not be participating in your survey. So you would need to adjust your results to take that error into account.
 
2013-10-10 09:59:17 AM  
Rasmussen? Yeah, right. I'll believe their poll results when my shiat starts tasting like rainbow sherbet.
 
2013-10-10 09:59:36 AM  
I wish President Romney would just defund Obamacare.
 
2013-10-10 09:59:56 AM  
Did Rasmussen ask President Romney how this poll will affect his decisions?
 
2013-10-10 10:00:24 AM  
Rasmussen: polls Republicans cite to make themselves feel better
 
2013-10-10 10:00:30 AM  

elchip: How can this even be believable when poll after poll shows the GOP's approval rating like 15 points below the Democrats'?


Because by faith alone you can move mountains. If the Republicans just believe this enough it will be true.
 
2013-10-10 10:00:44 AM  

Garet Garrett: Bareefer Obonghit: A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the week ending Sunday, October 6

lolaccurate

Um, you know how PPP and others do their polling, too, right?


Yet Rasmussen re-weights their polling data based on their estimates of the party membership in the country.  What's impressive about Rasmussen is how consistent they are in the direction of their wrongness.
 
2013-10-10 10:01:23 AM  
How did your weekly TV show work out last year, Mr. Rasmussen?
 
2013-10-10 10:01:59 AM  
I have faith in the Republican party.

6 Years ago, both my parents were vehemently anti-Dem. (aka anti-Obama).  Now, both are disgusted by both parties.

Another six years like this, and my parents will be voting Dem.

I have faith that this will happen.
 
2013-10-10 10:03:41 AM  

CPennypacker: What the fark is a telephone?


It's like a big ugly boutique iPhone case mod with no battery and only one app.
 
2013-10-10 10:04:00 AM  

elchip: How can this even be believable when poll after poll shows the GOP's approval rating like 15 points below the Democrats'?


People are kooky.  It's pretty common for folks to agree with GOP policy positions but detest the reviled GOP.  Often that results in them voting Democratic, but not all the time.  I chock it up largely to 24/7 coverage of the GOP as the tool of the rich evil business bogeyman that portrays the Dems as simply standing up for the little guy, but who knows - the fact is it's a pretty demonstrable phenomenon.  But when you ask about electing a person (even a generic, unnamed person) you step back from that abstraction a bit.
 
2013-10-10 10:04:12 AM  

Garet Garrett: Bareefer Obonghit: A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the week ending Sunday, October 6

lolaccurate

Um, you know how PPP and others do their polling, too, right?


How come they're always more accurate than Rasmussen?
 
2013-10-10 10:04:32 AM  

ikanreed: NeverDrunk23: I was wondering when this crap would be greened.

What you mean fark greenlights conservative bullshiat for no good reason?  I don' believe it.


Oh there's an excellent reason.

/beer ain't gonna buy itself
 
2013-10-10 10:05:19 AM  
I hardly know anyone with a land line anymore....can only think of a handful of older folks.

Even my parents cut theirs off and have been using a cell for the last couple of years.
My 80 y.o. mother-in-law is down to just a cell phone.

Calling only land lines really is a good way to seriously limit your poll to a certain type of person.
Why bother?
 
2013-10-10 10:05:47 AM  

cubic_spleen: CPennypacker: What the fark is a telephone?

It's like a big ugly boutique iPhone case mod with no battery and only one app.


Gross. What's the app? I hope its Google Maps.
 
2013-10-10 10:05:49 AM  
People with landline phones tend to be old.

Old people tend to vote bootstrappy.
 
2013-10-10 10:06:30 AM  
I think behaving like arsonists and kidnappers will prove to be a worse strategy. But we've been foxed before.

/0.02
 
2013-10-10 10:07:43 AM  

magores: I have faith that this will happen.


i.imgur.com
 
2013-10-10 10:08:02 AM  
Millions of people will vote Republican no matter what. That is what the last election proved.
 
2013-10-10 10:08:50 AM  
Calling your legitimate political opponents "arsonists and kidnappers and extortionists" is just retarded, sir.
 
2013-10-10 10:10:42 AM  

busy chillin': Millions of people will vote Republican no matter what. That is what the last election proved.


Republicans would vote for Satan himself if he ran against Hillary in 2016.
 
2013-10-10 10:10:54 AM  
"In fact, there is not a single poll in this series of 44 polls in which the Republican party registered a net positive rating, and not a single case in which the net Republican rating was higher than the net Democrat rating."

1.bp.blogspot.com

Link
 
2013-10-10 10:11:01 AM  

Nightjars: Old people tend to vote bootstrappy.


They need something to do between their medicare-funded hip replacements and cashing the next SS check.
 
2013-10-10 10:11:12 AM  

DesertCoyote: How did your weekly TV show work out last year, Mr. Rasmussen?


Rasmussen quit the firm a few months ago.
 
2013-10-10 10:12:34 AM  

Garet Garrett: elchip: How can this even be believable when poll after poll shows the GOP's approval rating like 15 points below the Democrats'?

People are kooky.  It's pretty common for folks to agree with GOP policy positions but detest the reviled GOP.  Often that results in them voting Democratic, but not all the time.  I chock it up largely to 24/7 coverage of the GOP as the tool of the rich evil business bogeyman that portrays the Dems as simply standing up for the little guy, but who knows - the fact is it's a pretty demonstrable phenomenon.  But when you ask about electing a person (even a generic, unnamed person) you step back from that abstraction a bit.


I'll take "pulled out of my ass rationalizations" for $100, Alex.
 
2013-10-10 10:12:35 AM  

Muta: Bareefer Obonghit: A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the week ending Sunday, October 6

lolaccurate

Didn't Obama call republicans "arsonists and kidnappers" on the 7th?

It was an analogy but this.

 
2013-10-10 10:12:56 AM  

skozlaw: Nightjars: Old people tend to vote bootstrappy.

They need something to do between their medicare-funded hip replacements and cashing the next SS check.


Watching Fox News helps
 
2013-10-10 10:13:11 AM  

Garet Garrett: elchip: How can this even be believable when poll after poll shows the GOP's approval rating like 15 points below the Democrats'?

People are kooky.  It's pretty common for folks to agree with GOP policy positions but detest the reviled GOP.  Often that results in them voting Democratic, but not all the time.  I chock it up largely to 24/7 coverage of the GOP as the tool of the rich evil business bogeyman that portrays the Dems as simply standing up for the little guy, but who knows - the fact is it's a pretty demonstrable phenomenon.  But when you ask about electing a person (even a generic, unnamed person) you step back from that abstraction a bit.


Yup it's a media conspiracy.
 
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