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(io9)   "Extreme human longevity would not pose threat to planet" claims author who has never heard of how much damage people with today's average lifespan can do already   (io9.com) divider line 54
    More: Unlikely, radiation damages, E.O. Wilson, malthusian, human biology, Green Revolution, longevity, social institutions, sustainable agriculture  
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708 clicks; posted to Geek » on 02 Oct 2013 at 6:57 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-10-03 12:02:50 PM  

veale728: THE GREAT NAME: Androtheism: the belief that man is God. Originated in the late 20th century by the so-called me-generation, an unusually populous age group resulting from a post-war baby boom. Androtheists take the idea that the world revolves around them as a literal belief. To the androtheist, original sin is found in any activity carried out by a human being that exploits the environmentin order to aid that human's survival. This can only be attoned by engaging in the ritual of activism which can range from acts of trespass and petty vandalism to the expression of emotionally charged debating fallacies on open discussion forums.

0/10


-1/10
 
2013-10-03 12:59:50 PM  

andrewagill: a flock of birds: His idea is that we would merge with the artificial intelligence, not that it would be some separate entity that we would then have to hope would be nice to us.

His idea is a gibbering, incoherent, mass of futile optimism.

Moore's law is not unlimited.  The clock speed race has largely died.  Now it's all going multicore, but keeping an increasing number of cores coherent is more sharply limited than clock cycles.  After that, I would expect the next step to be specified-use processing units, like cryptographic coprocessors or something.

And that's pretty much a dead end after that.

/Quantum processors will be in there somewhere
//But they only help with certain applications, and in most cases will not be useful.


His predictions don't rely on Moore's law continuing forever; he envisions paradigm shifts that will allow information technology to continue on the path it's been on for billions of years.

While I have read one of Kurzweil's books, I won't pretend to understand the nitty-gritty of computers. That said, I can either choose to put faith in a director of engineering at Google who has done significant work with technology for decades and made accurate predictions about it's advancements thus-far, or, well, farkers.
 
2013-10-03 01:33:36 PM  

a flock of birds: andrewagill: a flock of birds: His idea is that we would merge with the artificial intelligence, not that it would be some separate entity that we would then have to hope would be nice to us.

His idea is a gibbering, incoherent, mass of futile optimism.

Moore's law is not unlimited.  The clock speed race has largely died.  Now it's all going multicore, but keeping an increasing number of cores coherent is more sharply limited than clock cycles.  After that, I would expect the next step to be specified-use processing units, like cryptographic coprocessors or something.

And that's pretty much a dead end after that.

/Quantum processors will be in there somewhere
//But they only help with certain applications, and in most cases will not be useful.

His predictions don't rely on Moore's law continuing forever; he envisions paradigm shifts that will allow information technology to continue on the path it's been on for billions of years.

While I have read one of Kurzweil's books, I won't pretend to understand the nitty-gritty of computers. That said, I can either choose to put faith in a director of engineering at Google who has done significant work with technology for decades and made accurate predictions about it's advancements thus-far, or, well, farkers.


"Envisioning paradigm shifts" is just fancy book-larnin talk for "hand-waving"
 
2013-10-03 11:25:37 PM  

a flock of birds: His predictions don't rely on Moore's law continuing forever; he envisions paradigm shifts that will allow information technology to continue on the path it's been on for billions of years.


Same thing.  Moore's Law is a convenient shorthand for a number of different exponential growth curves.  In this case, I'm referring to the operations per second growth curve (usually abbreviated FLOPS, for FLoating point Operations Per Second).

Operations per second is a measure of how many different things we can do each second.  It's hard to come up with a more direct way to measure what the technological progress that we care about means to us, and that's why Ray Kurzweil includes it in his predictions:

si0.twimg.com
(You may have noticed that the chart ends in the year 2000)

This can certainly continue for a little while longer, but even the father of the Beowulf cluster doesn't think we'll ever see zettaflops:

These words may be thrown back in my face, but I think we will never reach zettaflops, at least not by doing discrete floating point operations. We are reaching the anvil of the technology S-curve and will be approaching an asymptote of single program performance due to a combination of factors including atomic granularity at nanoscale.

He also echoes the point that I made above:

Not only will the system architecture have to provide sufficient hardware concurrency of on the order of a billion or more simultaneous actions for the throughput requirement, it will have to use more of it as a latency mitigating method requiring additional architecture change.

As well as one that I forgot:

the fine-grained instruction level parallelism and coarse-grained concurrent processes will not provide sufficient efficient parallelism to meet the billion-plus-way parallelism requirement of exascale.
 
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