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(Salon)   "Could robots be job-creators?" asks someone who didn't catch the 2012 presidential campaign   (salon.com) divider line 45
    More: Interesting, interpersonal skills, automaticity, technological progress  
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562 clicks; posted to Business » on 30 Sep 2013 at 5:17 PM (46 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-09-30 03:57:54 PM
The robots will create jobs designing and maintaining the robots, other than that, what incentive do the robot owners have to share their wealth?
 
2013-09-30 04:33:30 PM
Fail subby, everybody knows that robots take jobs.

/And ship them to China.
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2013-09-30 05:07:06 PM

EvilEgg: The robots will create jobs designing and maintaining the robots, other than that, what incentive do the robot owners have to share their wealth?


Why can't a robot maintain other robots?  And there are already people who design them.  I guess they will be the last to go.
 
2013-09-30 05:07:34 PM
The nanobots inhibiting my thoughts and facilitating my actions are INSISTING that there is nothing to see here. Carry on.
 
2013-09-30 05:12:31 PM
thabto.files.wordpress.com
WORK WORK WORK!
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2013-09-30 05:18:30 PM
I think we are much closer to seeing some major jo0b displacement than most people realize.  The technology for self driving cars is already here, it's just a matter of cost and legal issues.

I think the first place you are going to see it (other than high end luxury cars) is large trucks.  The expense of employing a driver and the liability issues that come from driver error (especially from fatigue) mean that it will be cost effective for trucks long before it is for private passenger vehicles.
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2013-09-30 05:25:47 PM
Maybe some bo0b displacement too if they can make some sexbots!
 
2013-09-30 05:31:27 PM

vpb: I think we are much closer to seeing some major jo0b displacement than most people realize.  The technology for self driving cars is already here, it's just a matter of cost and legal issues.

I think the first place you are going to see it (other than high end luxury cars) is large trucks.  The expense of employing a driver and the liability issues that come from driver error (especially from fatigue) mean that it will be cost effective for trucks long before it is for private passenger vehicles.


Until they develop R2D2 they will still have a driver to handle blowouts, tire changes and inclement weather
 
2013-09-30 05:43:13 PM
Good job and jab subby.
 
2013-09-30 06:07:40 PM
Did Romney create any jobs/value?
 
2013-09-30 06:23:28 PM

ShadowKamui: Until they develop R2D2 they will still have a driver to handle blowouts, tire changes and inclement weather


I don't see the problem with inclement weather.  Blowouts I'm quite comfortable saying that the automated drivers are already at least an order-of-magnitude better at reaction time, proper reaction, etc, than even the very, very best professional driver.  Also, they can alert other driverless vehicles who might be affected by the blowout, faster than a human can interpret a brake light.  That leaves changing the tire.  Broken down vehicle drifts over to the breakdown lane.  And, assuming a robot isn't doing it, one of the half-dozen dedicated roadside-tire-changers-per-million-cars will get there in the next 20 minutes.
 
2013-09-30 06:42:21 PM
Robots are unemployement line creaters.     they don't require overtime and can work 24/7.  they need maintenance, but that's alot cheaper than healthcare, thanks to our crooked friends in the AMA who set prices.


robots don't get pregnant. or get married.  as long as they're maintained, they are the perfect employee.  all that sweet money gets to go to the Owners/shareholders instead of labor costs.
 
2013-09-30 06:47:51 PM

Linux_Yes: Robots are unemployement line creaters.     they don't require overtime and can work 24/7.  they need maintenance, but that's alot cheaper than healthcare, thanks to our crooked friends in the AMA who set prices.


robots don't get pregnant. or get married.  as long as they're maintained, they are the perfect employee.  all that sweet money gets to go to the Owners/shareholders instead of labor costs.


All what sweet money? Robots don't buy stuff.
 
2013-09-30 06:53:22 PM

vpb: I think we are much closer to seeing some major jo0b displacement than most people realize.  The technology for self driving cars is already here, it's just a matter of cost and legal issues.

I think the first place you are going to see it (other than high end luxury cars) is large trucks.  The expense of employing a driver and the liability issues that come from driver error (especially from fatigue) mean that it will be cost effective for trucks long before it is for private passenger vehicles.


Stephen King wrote the counter argument years ago.

fridayflashbacks.com
 
2013-09-30 07:04:02 PM
Well done, subs.
 
2013-09-30 07:12:50 PM

Lawnchair: ShadowKamui: Until they develop R2D2 they will still have a driver to handle blowouts, tire changes and inclement weather

I don't see the problem with inclement weather.  Blowouts I'm quite comfortable saying that the automated drivers are already at least an order-of-magnitude better at reaction time, proper reaction, etc, than even the very, very best professional driver.  Also, they can alert other driverless vehicles who might be affected by the blowout, faster than a human can interpret a brake light.  That leaves changing the tire.  Broken down vehicle drifts over to the breakdown lane.  And, assuming a robot isn't doing it, one of the half-dozen dedicated roadside-tire-changers-per-million-cars will get there in the next 20 minutes.


The last thing you want to do as a trucking company is have to wait for the tow truck to come out and fix stuff in the middle of no where w/ no one to watch it.  You're begging for thieves to rob you blind
 
2013-09-30 07:17:05 PM

vpb: EvilEgg: The robots will create jobs designing and maintaining the robots, other than that, what incentive do the robot owners have to share their wealth?

Why can't a robot maintain other robots?  And there are already people who design them.  I guess they will be the last to go.


In a manner of speaking. Eventually you have service and repair robots that fix other robots or monitor robotic systems to ensure everything is running smoothl. But it's not a perpetual motion machine -- it still requires resources and energy from the outside to keep going. But that can be handled by robots too. So the robots are fixing themselves and each other, and are self sufficient so long as the external energy source is not depleted (this, by the way, is also the number one cause of human societies collapsing -- scarcity of vital resources).

At that point, humans are not needed in the equation, and we have to be either extremely elated or extremely afraid.
 
2013-09-30 07:23:53 PM

ShadowKamui: The last thing you want to do as a trucking company is have to wait for the tow truck to come out and fix stuff in the middle of no where w/ no one to watch it.  You're begging for thieves to rob you blind


Tens of millions of dollars in goods travel everyday by TOFC (Trailer on rail flatcar), a mile from the nearest responsible person (in the locomotive), frequently stopping in the middle of nowhere.  Locks, electronic security, and insurance for acceptable shrinkage... we've kinda figured all that out 50 years ago.
 
2013-09-30 07:48:52 PM

Lawnchair: Tens of millions of dollars in goods travel everyday by TOFC (Trailer on rail flatcar), a mile from the nearest responsible person (in the locomotive), frequently stopping in the middle of nowhere. Locks, electronic security, and insurance for acceptable shrinkage... we've kinda figured all that out 50 years ago.


moviesfilmsmotionpictures.files.wordpress.com
 
2013-09-30 07:53:50 PM

Lawnchair: ShadowKamui: The last thing you want to do as a trucking company is have to wait for the tow truck to come out and fix stuff in the middle of no where w/ no one to watch it.  You're begging for thieves to rob you blind

Tens of millions of dollars in goods travel everyday by TOFC (Trailer on rail flatcar), a mile from the nearest responsible person (in the locomotive), frequently stopping in the middle of nowhere.  Locks, electronic security, and insurance for acceptable shrinkage... we've kinda figured all that out 50 years ago.


And now make that 100 miles and nobody will get near it for 5 hours.  But if you paid some yahoo $10 an hour it would be fixed in 10 min and back on the road again.

Sorry but %100 autonomous w/o any on board repair is beyond stupid and just pissing away money and time for no reason.
 
2013-09-30 08:00:10 PM

Ishkur: vpb: EvilEgg: The robots will create jobs designing and maintaining the robots, other than that, what incentive do the robot owners have to share their wealth?

Why can't a robot maintain other robots?  And there are already people who design them.  I guess they will be the last to go.

In a manner of speaking. Eventually you have service and repair robots that fix other robots or monitor robotic systems to ensure everything is running smoothl. But it's not a perpetual motion machine -- it still requires resources and energy from the outside to keep going. But that can be handled by robots too. So the robots are fixing themselves and each other, and are self sufficient so long as the external energy source is not depleted (this, by the way, is also the number one cause of human societies collapsing -- scarcity of vital resources).

At that point, humans are not needed in the equation, and we have to be either extremely elated or extremely afraid.


But the robots will be busy fighting in space, or perhaps at the tops of very tall mountains...
 
2013-09-30 08:20:49 PM
Of course, the good news with this line of questioning is if the answer is "yes", then we have no more need for rich people.

So let's kill them and take their stuff.
 
2013-09-30 08:26:06 PM

jso2897: Linux_Yes: Robots are unemployement line creaters.     they don't require overtime and can work 24/7.  they need maintenance, but that's alot cheaper than healthcare, thanks to our crooked friends in the AMA who set prices.


robots don't get pregnant. or get married.  as long as they're maintained, they are the perfect employee.  all that sweet money gets to go to the Owners/shareholders instead of labor costs.

All what sweet money? Robots don't buy stuff.


They could if we programmed them to. And that is the way we'll prevent the animatrix from happening, by making them robotic serfs.
 
2013-09-30 09:24:40 PM

Fano: jso2897: Linux_Yes: Robots are unemployement line creaters.     they don't require overtime and can work 24/7.  they need maintenance, but that's alot cheaper than healthcare, thanks to our crooked friends in the AMA who set prices.


robots don't get pregnant. or get married.  as long as they're maintained, they are the perfect employee.  all that sweet money gets to go to the Owners/shareholders instead of labor costs.

All what sweet money? Robots don't buy stuff.

They could if we programmed them to. And that is the way we'll prevent the animatrix from happening, by making them robotic serfs.


I don't care what you say - my kids ain't going to school with no robots.
 
2013-09-30 09:37:23 PM
I don't really get why people are so convinced (with so little evidence!) that robots are going to take our jobs. Let me explain. The year is 1950. The washing machine has been invented. No longer does the wife of every family have to stay home spending hours cleaning. Robots have taken every woman's job. Did society collapse? No, somehow, new jobs were created and now most women STILL HAVE JOBS.

Did we lose our jobs when we got cranes, bulldozers, dump trucks, etc.? No, weird, we kept having jobs. Did we lose jobs when we got computers? No.

What will the new jobs be? I don't know, I'd be rich if I knew. A bunch of people (boomers) are getting really old, and they need other people to take care of them. Hello- jobs.
 
2013-09-30 10:11:14 PM

spidermilk: I don't really get why people are so convinced (with so little evidence!) that robots are going to take our jobs. Let me explain.


7/10. You actually had me pulling sources for a minute there.
 
2013-09-30 10:14:09 PM

spidermilk: Did we lose our jobs when we got cranes, bulldozers, dump trucks, etc.? No, weird, we kept having jobs. Did we lose jobs when we got computers? No.


Kind of, actually:

thecurrentmoment.files.wordpress.com

This is not something that happens all at once, overnight.  The question is, do we respond to this trend by taxing those getting enormously rich off of this a little bit more, and investing the revenue in training to help keep our workforce ahead of the curve?  Or, do we try to dupe the lower classes into believing that tax cuts for the rich will trickle down and improve their situation?
 
2013-09-30 10:15:10 PM

ShadowKamui: Sorry but %100 autonomous w/o any on board repair is beyond stupid and just pissing away money and time for no reason.


What makes you think there wouldn't be any automated on-board repair?
 
2013-09-30 10:34:12 PM
I'm looking forward to applying for the "Gynoid Tester" position when it becomes available.
 
2013-09-30 10:39:11 PM

Yankees Team Gynecologist: This is not something that happens all at once, overnight. The question is, do we respond to this trend by taxing those getting enormously rich off of this a little bit more, and investing the revenue in training to help keep our workforce ahead of the curve? Or, do we try to dupe the lower classes into believing that tax cuts for the rich will trickle down and improve their situation?


Question: do you salute your Che poster, or your Krugman doll, when you type such tired tripe out?

Graphs from leftist wordpress blogs arguing for buggy whip factories aren't exactly objective evidence.
 
2013-09-30 10:47:03 PM

ShadowKamui: And now make that 100 miles and nobody will get near it for 5 hours.  But if you paid some yahoo $10 an hour it would be fixed in 10 min and back on the road again.

Sorry but %100 autonomous w/o any on board repair is beyond stupid and just pissing away money and time for no reason.


$10/hour as a contingency for something that happens, maybe, every 2500 hours of driving (this isn't the '60s anymore)?  Very few loads are worth $25k more if they're there on time than a little late.  For that matter, a lot of big rigs on the road right now don't have a spare wheel.  It's fairly common for them to have a spare (dismounted) tire and have to, believe it or not, call for roadside assistance to mount/dismount it (assuming a front tire, any of the other 16 are usually fine in a dual arrangement to get to the next truck stop).
 
2013-09-30 11:03:26 PM
Shryke: Question: do you salute your Che poster, or your Krugman doll, when you type such tired tripe out?

Graphs from leftist wordpress blogs arguing for buggy whip factories aren't exactly objective evidence
Yeah, but still.

You're a few steps behind the average conservatard.  Most of them acknowledge the trend, and even attribute it to technology, but they then keep farking the trickle-down chicken.  You can't even seem to get out of the gate.
 
2013-09-30 11:12:40 PM
Someone will be hired as contractors to guard semi trucks.  They will sleep when it drives.  Be awake anytime its not moving.  And work 24/7.  Seriously.

But more importantly all the taxi cabs will be automated.

Fast foods going to be automated.

And no.  We wont be able to produce new jobs as fast as they are destroyed.  Its going to accelerate faster then anyone expects.
 
2013-09-30 11:52:04 PM

Greywar: Someone will be hired as contractors to guard semi trucks.  They will sleep when it drives.  Be awake anytime its not moving.  And work 24/7.  Seriously.

But more importantly all the taxi cabs will be automated.

Fast foods going to be automated.

And no.  We wont be able to produce new jobs as fast as they are destroyed.  Its going to accelerate faster then anyone expects.


Human Cockfighting will be a growth industry.

HAL run Bartertown!
 
2013-10-01 12:35:37 AM
Actually Fano, I think the idea of guarenteed minimum income will eventually go into effect.  the other alternatives are.....unfortunate for all involved.
 
2013-10-01 12:58:17 AM

spidermilk: Did we lose our jobs when we got cranes, bulldozers, dump trucks, etc.? No, weird, we kept having jobs. Did we lose jobs when we got computers? No.


Yes, but now there are less of them, and they produce more. What once took 100,000 Egyptian laborers 23 years to build can now be accomplished over a lazy summer by a group of teamsters with some Caterpillar rental forms.
 
2013-10-01 01:06:19 AM

Greywar: Actually Fano, I think the idea of guarenteed minimum income will eventually go into effect.  the other alternatives are.....unfortunate for all involved.


Now who's being naive? Death defiance as a growth industry will exist long before anyone finally agrees to a guaranteed minimum income for all.
 
2013-10-01 01:36:33 AM

vpb: I think we are much closer to seeing some major jo0b displacement than most people realize.  The technology for self driving cars is already here, it's just a matter of cost and legal issues.

I think the first place you are going to see it (other than high end luxury cars) is large trucks.  The expense of employing a driver and the liability issues that come from driver error (especially from fatigue) mean that it will be cost effective for trucks long before it is for private passenger vehicles.


images3.wikia.nocookie.net

"I'm afraid I can't let you do this Red." - "I'm not Red, I'm Homer." - "Gotta go!"
 
2013-10-01 02:46:42 AM
As technology evolves, so do weapons.  And I suspect that at some point we're going to see REAL class warfare.  Based upon those who believe that their monetary value is completely earned by them with no other inputs.  IE that it magically appears because they are special.  Versus the hungry.  And the hungry will ALSO be fairly well educated.  A person with some education now, can build truly horrific weapons.  Blinding lasers, poison gases, and more.  Given what I know is possible I am horrified by what a intelligent and angry citizenry that wasn't worried about Geneva conventions could do.

This being said...the loss of employment without the ability to survive will rapidly cause people to create weapons and take it out on those that they feel have wronged them.  So this is a topic that a government should be proactive on.  And I just dont see sufficient replacement jobs being created as a result of the coming wave of automation.

BUT.  If approached right this can be a new wave of advancement not seen since the industrial revolution.  The future can be very bright for us all if we all remember that we are on the same lifeboat.

Least til I can find a way to get to orbit, collect asteroids for materials, and create solar panels.....then...yeah not so much.  Odd how several billionaires have started to actively research this huh....almost like they can see the oncoming wave coming.
 
2013-10-01 07:23:43 AM

Greywar: As technology evolves, so do weapons.  And I suspect that at some point we're going to see REAL class warfare.  Based upon those who believe that their monetary value is completely earned by them with no other inputs.  IE that it magically appears because they are special.  Versus the hungry.  And the hungry will ALSO be fairly well educated.  A person with some education now, can build truly horrific weapons.  Blinding lasers, poison gases, and more.  Given what I know is possible I am horrified by what a intelligent and angry citizenry that wasn't worried about Geneva conventions could do.

This being said...the loss of employment without the ability to survive will rapidly cause people to create weapons and take it out on those that they feel have wronged them.  So this is a topic that a government should be proactive on.  And I just dont see sufficient replacement jobs being created as a result of the coming wave of automation.

BUT.  If approached right this can be a new wave of advancement not seen since the industrial revolution.  The future can be very bright for us all if we all remember that we are on the same lifeboat.

Least til I can find a way to get to orbit, collect asteroids for materials, and create solar panels.....then...yeah not so much.  Odd how several billionaires have started to actively research this huh....almost like they can see the oncoming wave coming.


Anyway - the economy we have now requires human consumers. That kind of places a limit on how far this stuff can go.
 
2013-10-01 07:51:40 AM
Sexbots are blow job creators
 
2013-10-01 07:53:23 AM

jso2897: Anyway - the economy we have now requires human consumers. That kind of places a limit on how far this stuff can go.


And... how does the average Maury-watching Joe manage to consume, now, after 33 years of Reagan?  Debt. That's how.

That's kinda how I see it going.  In one sense there's not a huge difference between saddling 80% of the population with debts that will eventually be written off and, say, a minimum income/social credit system.  It's just that the former keeps the plebs feeling guilty and docile and beholden to 'the system', while the latter would lead to an increase in uppityness.
 
2013-10-01 10:43:11 AM
Oooh, burrrrrrrrrn, subby! I like it.
 
2013-10-01 10:59:08 AM

ShadowKamui: You're begging for thieves to rob you blind


You think the average truck driver is getting paid enough to risk his life stopping a robbery? I bet most truckers working today don't have a shotgun in the cab, seeing as it's illegal to keep a loaded weapon in the car in some states, and you still don't see a lot of hoodlums breaking into semis on the side of the road.

Besides, if the automated system can drive a truck, it can sure as hell call the cops if there's any unauthorized activity around the loading doors, and report license plates on suspicious vehicles. Locks and security cameras are cheap, and a one-time investment.
 
2013-10-01 06:19:01 PM

spidermilk: I don't really get why people are so convinced (with so little evidence!) that robots are going to take our jobs. Let me explain. The year is 1950. The washing machine has been invented. No longer does the wife of every family have to stay home spending hours cleaning. Robots have taken every woman's job. Did society collapse? No, somehow, new jobs were created and now most women STILL HAVE JOBS.

Did we lose our jobs when we got cranes, bulldozers, dump trucks, etc.? No, weird, we kept having jobs. Did we lose jobs when we got computers? No.

What will the new jobs be? I don't know, I'd be rich if I knew. A bunch of people (boomers) are getting really old, and they need other people to take care of them. Hello- jobs.


To be fair, women entering the workforce en masse drove down the cost of labor significantly.

There's a reason households could afford to get by with a single income earner back when all the wives were at home. Now? Not so much.

Basically, take that, add it to when we opened our doors to cheap foreign labor, and multiply by a factor of ten. Because this is going to be surplus (damn near) free labor.

And it's not just for blue collars, either. Computers are pretty good at math, you know.

"The main lesson of thirty-five years of AI research is that the hard problems are easy and the easy problems are hard. The mental abilities of a four-year-old that we take for granted - recognizing a face, lifting a pencil, walking across a room, answering a question - in fact solve some of the hardest engineering problems ever conceived... As the new generation of intelligent devices appears, it will be the stock analysts and petrochemical engineers and parole board members who are in danger of being replaced by machines. The gardeners, receptionists, and cooks are secure in their jobs for decades to come.[2]"

The only way this'll all work is if decouple the ideas of income from work, and we all become "men of leisure," with our robots and our computers making us our money.
 
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