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(New York Daily News)   Robinson Cano wants to be the next ARod   (nydailynews.com) divider line 58
    More: Obvious, Robinson Cano, Yankees, Alex Rodriguez, American League MVP, Dustin Pedroia, Joe Girardi, pinstripes, Mariano Rivera  
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630 clicks; posted to Sports » on 27 Sep 2013 at 8:58 AM (40 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-09-27 09:08:41 AM
Yankees trifecta complete!
 
2013-09-27 09:17:58 AM
He wants his cousin to inject performance enhancing drugs into his buttocks?
 
2013-09-27 09:29:48 AM
Pujols set the going market rate for an about-to-be-past-his-prime slugger. Cano deserves something along that order of magnitude. He *shouldn't* get it because no player should get that much guaranteed. But he probably will.
 
2013-09-27 09:30:03 AM
Cano is a great player, but it's gratifying to see the Yankees fall victim to their own reputation-inflation machine.
 
2013-09-27 09:32:55 AM
Ten year contract for a 31 year old player. That's pretty funny. Cano's future performance is all downhill from here.
 
2013-09-27 09:41:50 AM
Someone will overpay for him. Its pretty much guaranteed.
 
2013-09-27 09:49:17 AM
This deal would make sense if everyone thought Cano would repeat his best years from his age 31 through age 40 seasons.

The David Wright comp in the article is actually a good one.  (They just picked him because he's the other New Yorker who recently signed a big deal, but he's actually Baseball Reference's #1 comp for Cano through age 30.)

Wright: 1,372 games, batting line of .302/.382/.507, OPS+ of 137, average defender at a position of average importance, good baserunner who will give you ~15-20 SB with high efficiency. +50 WAR by Fangraphs.
Cano: 1,372 games, batting line of .305/.355/.505, OPS+ of 125, average defender at a position of above-average importance, average baserunner.  +37 WAR by Fangraphs.

Wright just got $138M for 8 years, and he's objectively a significantly better hitter.  (25 points of OBP goes a long way, and Wright's power stats have long been suppressed by Citi Field.)

If Cano is looking for 10 years, he should be asking in the $150-160M range, and that's being kind because the two extra seasons (age 39 and 40) will likely be mediocre ones.  His agent is Cray-Z.
 
2013-09-27 09:49:20 AM
Well it doesn't hurt to ask, but that contract isn't out there for Cano or anybody else at this point.
 
2013-09-27 09:57:54 AM
He should get one of those centaur portraits that's all the rage these days.
 
2013-09-27 09:58:16 AM

Lost Thought 00: Pujols set the going market rate for an about-to-be-past-his-prime slugger. Cano deserves something along that order of magnitude. He *shouldn't* get it because no player should get that much guaranteed. But he probably will.


Pujols had just wrapped up a historically-great 10-year start to his career.  He got $240M/10yr.  We was literally more than twice as valuable to his team as Cano by WAR.  And at the time, he looked healthy-- he had played 147+ games every year of his career.  In 2010, Pujols looked like a young Hank Aaron, except better.  2011 was a dip in performance, but he finished strong and most people through he'd still have a strong second act.

Then he turned 45 overnight and his foot fell off.  And this is why you don't sign 30+ year old players to 10 year contracts.  But most importantly, Cano hasn't nearly been the version of Pujols that played for the Cardinals.
 
2013-09-27 10:02:06 AM

Yanks_RSJ: Well it doesn't hurt to ask, but that contract isn't out there for Cano or anybody else at this point.


I assume it's an ambit claim.  You ask for something unobtainable to create the narrative that he's the best player in baseball (he's not), and then "compromise" to a deal that is actually appropriate for the best player in baseball, like $200M/8yr.
 
2013-09-27 10:11:06 AM

chimp_ninja: Yanks_RSJ: Well it doesn't hurt to ask, but that contract isn't out there for Cano or anybody else at this point.

I assume it's an ambit claim.  You ask for something unobtainable to create the narrative that he's the best player in baseball (he's not), and then "compromise" to a deal that is actually appropriate for the best player in baseball, like $200M/8yr.


That's the Derek Jeter approach from a few years ago.  He reportedly asked for about $100M over 5 years, which made his guaranteed 3-year, $51M contract seem downright reasonable for a player in obvious decline.
 
2013-09-27 10:18:32 AM
CaNO.
 
2013-09-27 10:20:44 AM
Honest question for Yankees fans - Would you tolerate a year or two of intentional tanking while the Yanks wait for some of these big contracts to expire? As in, accept without calling for the heads of coaches and/or GMs
 
2013-09-27 10:24:44 AM
wellbye.jpg
 
2013-09-27 10:27:12 AM

Lost Thought 00: Honest question for Yankees fans - Would you tolerate a year or two of intentional tanking while the Yanks wait for some of these big contracts to expire? As in, accept without calling for the heads of coaches and/or GMs


It's not a matter of us accepting it, it is a matter of the innocent bystanders who's careers would be intentionally blemished. I.e. those same head coaches and GMs...and whatever players actually have promise.
 
2013-09-27 10:27:12 AM

Lost Thought 00: Honest question for Yankees fans - Would you tolerate a year or two of intentional tanking while the Yanks wait for some of these big contracts to expire? As in, accept without calling for the heads of coaches and/or GMs


Well, the year or two of "tanking" is independent of calling for the heads of the front office, since they're the imbeciles who created this financial catastrophe.

And their drafting/player development has been a horror show.

So yes, I absolutely would tolerate a "rebuilding" of sorts, but I don't trust this regime to rebuild since they've never demonstrated an ability to evaluate young talent at all.  Cashman became GM when the core was already established, and Randy Levine a horse's ass.
 
2013-09-27 10:34:26 AM

chimp_ninja: Yanks_RSJ: Well it doesn't hurt to ask, but that contract isn't out there for Cano or anybody else at this point.

I assume it's an ambit claim.  You ask for something unobtainable to create the narrative that he's the best player in baseball (he's not), and then "compromise" to a deal that is actually appropriate for the best player in baseball, like $200M/8yr.


I guess he can try, but the problem is that he's not one of the 10 best players in baseball, and arguably not the most valuable second baseman in the AL east. Pedroia gives up some power, especially the last couple years, but posts a better OBP, is a vastly better defender, and has one less year and 300 less games on his odometer. Given that Pedroia just signed for ~7 years, $100 million, Cano should take the Yankees money and run. Even the Dodgers aren't giving him $300m.
 
2013-09-27 10:35:15 AM
Olbermann called this out as probably released from the yankees to turn public opinion against Cano and put him in a weaker contract negotiation, like they did to Jeter a couple years ago. Well either that or Jay Z is farking stupid, you know either or.
 
2013-09-27 10:35:22 AM
Yea, no.
 
2013-09-27 10:35:37 AM
The crazy one will be Miguel Cabrera in a couple years, if he doesn't get extended first.  His contract is up at the end of 2015, when he'll be 32 and still as good as he is now.
 
2013-09-27 10:56:26 AM
Make it happen Cashman
 
2013-09-27 10:59:31 AM

oryx: Ten year contract for a 31 year old player. That's pretty funny. Cano's future performance is all downhill from here.


Not exactly but I'll give you at least the last 5 years of that contract he'd be going downhill fast.
 
2013-09-27 11:05:00 AM
Offer him 5 years at $105 million and be done with it.  He's not worth any more than that.

GM's need to pull their heads out of their asses.
 
2013-09-27 11:06:13 AM
Assuming Cano is a 6.0 WAR player now and a win is worth $6MM, with age degradation of 0.5 wins/year, a ten year contract could conceivably be worth:

6.0+5.5+5.0+4.5+4.0+3.5+3.0+2.5+2.0+1.5 = 37.5 WAR x $6MM/win = $225MM, i.e. Pujols contract.

1 thing working in his favor is fairly neutral road/home splits, so its not like he's a creation of Yankee Stadium's short porch.

Another thing is the Dodgers have been trotting out Nick Punto/Mark Ellis at 2nd base, so they'l at least contribute to a bidding war. But they only need to offer more than the next team will, so I just cant imagine anyone else offering more than $200MM.
 
2013-09-27 11:08:42 AM

studleystudstutterson: WAR stuff


Is position factored into WAR? You'd have to assume he'd be moved off 2B sometime in that ten years, making him a 25 HR 1B/DH, which isn't that uncommon.
 
2013-09-27 11:16:32 AM

Big Beef Burrito: studleystudstutterson: WAR stuff

Is position factored into WAR? You'd have to assume he'd be moved off 2B sometime in that ten years, making him a 25 HR 1B/DH, which isn't that uncommon.


Yes, both for offensive and defensive components.  Also, WAR has quite a bit more to it than just home runs.  Oh, and the relative value of everything chances from year to year.
 
2013-09-27 11:20:16 AM

meanmutton: Big Beef Burrito: studleystudstutterson: WAR stuff

Is position factored into WAR? You'd have to assume he'd be moved off 2B sometime in that ten years, making him a 25 HR 1B/DH, which isn't that uncommon.

Yes, both for offensive and defensive components.  Also, WAR has quite a bit more to it than just home runs.  Oh, and the relative value of everything chances from year to year.


Obviously, there are more than HR to it, but my real question is, if Cano has a high WAR relative to other 2B (which is a positiontraditionally lacking in high offensive output), how does that change if he moves to another position where his bat doesn't stand out as much?

Does a team pay him for ten years based on this projected WAR at 2B if he is going to have to move eventually?
 
2013-09-27 11:28:39 AM

chimp_ninja: This deal would make sense if everyone thought Cano would repeat his best years from his age 31 through age 40 seasons.

The David Wright comp in the article is actually a good one.  (They just picked him because he's the other New Yorker who recently signed a big deal, but he's actually Baseball Reference's #1 comp for Cano through age 30.)

Wright: 1,372 games, batting line of .302/.382/.507, OPS+ of 137, average defender at a position of average importance, good baserunner who will give you ~15-20 SB with high efficiency. +50 WAR by Fangraphs.
Cano: 1,372 games, batting line of .305/.355/.505, OPS+ of 125, average defender at a position of above-average importance, average baserunner.  +37 WAR by Fangraphs.

Wright just got $138M for 8 years, and he's objectively a significantly better hitter.  (25 points of OBP goes a long way, and Wright's power stats have long been suppressed by Citi Field.)

If Cano is looking for 10 years, he should be asking in the $150-160M range, and that's being kind because the two extra seasons (age 39 and 40) will likely be mediocre ones.  His agent is Cray-Z.


The problem is that career slash lines aren't that reflective of where a player's at.  For the past four seasons, Cano's slash is 311/370/539, ops+ of 140.  That says a lot more about the year I'd predict for him next year than looking at his career as a whole.
 
2013-09-27 11:33:28 AM

neon_god: chimp_ninja: Yanks_RSJ: Well it doesn't hurt to ask, but that contract isn't out there for Cano or anybody else at this point.

I assume it's an ambit claim.  You ask for something unobtainable to create the narrative that he's the best player in baseball (he's not), and then "compromise" to a deal that is actually appropriate for the best player in baseball, like $200M/8yr.

I guess he can try, but the problem is that he's not one of the 10 best players in baseball, and arguably not the most valuable second baseman in the AL east. Pedroia gives up some power, especially the last couple years, but posts a better OBP, is a vastly better defender, and has one less year and 300 less games on his odometer. Given that Pedroia just signed for ~7 years, $100 million, Cano should take the Yankees money and run. Even the Dodgers aren't giving him $300m.


Over the past four years, Cano has Pedroia beat in OBP by a scant .005.  Pedroia's a better defender, but I'm not sure I'd call the difference vast.  Cano's one of the better defenders at 2B, and Pedroia's one of the best.

Also, Pedroia signed for a lot less than he's worth.  Does that mean Cano's value goes down?

Cano's easily a top 10 player right now.  I'd say he's close to the top 5.  He's behind Cabrera, Trout, maybe Chris Davis, almost definitely McCutchen... and that's about it.  At least amongst position players.
 
2013-09-27 11:38:44 AM
Is there another team with the need and means to compete with the Yankees for this farking boiled hot dog?  The Dodgers just picked up a Cuban 2B right?
 
2013-09-27 11:41:36 AM

chimp_ninja: His agent is Cray-Z.


Excellent.

/99 problems and a pitch ain't one?
//Sorry.
 
2013-09-27 12:09:08 PM

Big Beef Burrito: Obviously, there are more than HR to it, but my real question is, if Cano has a high WAR relative to other 2B (which is a positiontraditionally lacking in high offensive output), how does that change if he moves to another position where his bat doesn't stand out as much?

Does a team pay him for ten years based on this projected WAR at 2B if he is going to have to move eventually?


I don't know the precise formulaics necessary for making an exact translation, but going by wRC+ (generally good all-encompassing offensive production metric) Cano (~140 wRC+ the last 4 years) currently slots in between Edwin Encarnacion (145 wRC+) & Brandon Belt (136 wRC+). Those two were worth 4.1 WAR & 3.8 WAR respectively this year, with below average defense. So a very rough back of the envelope estimate would be that moving from 2nd to 1st costs a player about 1.5-2 wins if he plays both positions at about the same defensive level.

Adjusting for this, if we assume Cano plays 2nd from ages 31-36, then moves to 1st from ages 37-40, then he loses 6-8 wins at the tail of his contract. That means dropping $36MM-$48MM from the contract, putting it at about $177MM-$189MM/10 years. So, close to Teixeira territory.

Note: This is meant as an exercise for an approximation for what would generally be considered a "best-case" scenario of what the contract would be worth to the team.
 
2013-09-27 12:31:23 PM
So he wants $30 million a year for ten years in his thirties, huh? He should call up Arte Moreno, the Angels will give him a $400 million/15 year contract.
 
2013-09-27 12:35:26 PM
Dafatone:
Over the past four years, Cano has Pedroia beat in OBP by a scant .005.  Pedroia's a better defender, but I'm not sure I'd call the difference vast.  Cano's one of the better defenders at 2B, and Pedroia's one of the best.

Also, Pedroia signed for a lot less than he's worth.  Does that mean Cano's value goes down?

Cano's easily a top 10 player right now.  I'd say he's close to the top 5.  He's behind Cabrera, Trout, maybe Chris Davis, almost definitely McCutchen... and that's about it.  At least amongst position players.


Yeah, not top 10 may be a stretch. Still though, I have Trout, Cabrera and McCutchen as clearly more valuable. Cano's in the next tier with players like Votto, Wright, Longoria, Pedroia, etc. You can put them in just about any order. Then there are this year's breakouts like Machado, Davis, Donaldson, Carpenter and Goldschmidt, who you can't really say are better than Cano given his proven track record, but who are maybe more valuable given their youth. He's an excellent player, and I'm not saying he isn't. He wants to get paid like the  best though, and he isn't close to the best. The Yankees offer of six years, $144m seems pretty reasonable to me. If you believe in the 6m/WAR thing, that expects him to generate 24 WAR over that span, or 4 per season. He'll almost certainly top that the first couple years, but probably won't be able to do it at 37. Add that to the risk of injury derailing a season or two and I can't see a sane team paying much more. The number he wants is absurd. No way he generates anything close to that kind of value over the next 10 years.
 
2013-09-27 12:37:33 PM

Lost Thought 00: Honest question for Yankees fans - Would you tolerate a year or two of intentional tanking while the Yanks wait for some of these big contracts to expire? As in, accept without calling for the heads of coaches and/or GMs


If they actually rebuild, then yes, I'd accept it. I'm not sure that will happen, though. I feel like they'll try to win with what they have and end up making the mess last longer than it has to
 
2013-09-27 12:37:46 PM

Dafatone: The problem is that career slash lines aren't that reflective of where a player's at. For the past four seasons, Cano's slash is 311/370/539, ops+ of 140. That says a lot more about the year I'd predict for him next year than looking at his career as a whole.


Sure, but David Wright's line over the last four years is 290/372/489 (OPS+ of 138), or essentially the same guy.  The rest is probably a wash: Cano plays a more important position, but doesn't excel at it, but Wright adds some value on the basepaths.

So it still points to something around Wright's range: $138M/8yr.

studleystudstutterson: Assuming Cano is a 6.0 WAR player now and a win is worth $6MM, with age degradation of 0.5 wins/year, a ten year contract could conceivably be worth:

6.0+5.5+5.0+4.5+4.0+3.5+3.0+2.5+2.0+1.5 = 37.5 WAR x $6MM/win = $225MM, i.e. Pujols contract.


I agree with the general approach, but most teams value wins at ~$4-5M in practice.  Fangraphs link that also covers how to factor in inflation.  That example assumed Sabathia is a 5.5 WAR guy, same decline, and suggested $142M/6yr.

Either way, we're in the $150-200M range for 8 years, and Cano is still nuts.
 
2013-09-27 12:44:53 PM

Cagey B: So he wants $30 million a year for ten years in his thirties, huh? He should call up Arte Moreno, the Angels will give him a $400 million/15 year contract.


Jay-Z: "Counteroffer: $420M/20 years.  It's a lower annual price.  Like a magazine subscription."
Angels: "I can't do any better than $440M/25 years.  I need to save some money at the back end."
Mike Scioscia: "And I get Mathis back.  You get me Cano for $450M/27 years, and Jeff Mathis for $75M/2 years plus he has to hug me after every game.  Then we're sold.  But Cano has to bunt a lot."
Jay-Z: "Sold.  biatches.  Now, if you'll excuse me, I got to dive in my gold coin vault."
Scioscia: "Yeah!  I got Mathis back!"
 
2013-09-27 12:45:08 PM
Cuckoo for cocoa puffs, Cano.
 
2013-09-27 01:19:28 PM

chimp_ninja: Dafatone: The problem is that career slash lines aren't that reflective of where a player's at. For the past four seasons, Cano's slash is 311/370/539, ops+ of 140. That says a lot more about the year I'd predict for him next year than looking at his career as a whole.

Sure, but David Wright's line over the last four years is 290/372/489 (OPS+ of 138), or essentially the same guy. The rest is probably a wash: Cano plays a more important position, but doesn't excel at it, but Wright adds some value on the basepaths.

So it still points to something around Wright's range: $138M/8yr.


That's true.  I don't mean to say that Cano beats Wright by all that much.  Really, the major difference between the two is health and consistency.  On the other hand, it's possible that Cano doesn't actually have much power if you take him out of Yankee Stadium.

I do think the difference in position puts Cano ahead, despite Wright's running.  It's close, though.  What Cano's asking for is absurd, but I bet he gets 7 years and about 25 per.
 
2013-09-27 01:34:49 PM

Dafatone: On the other hand, it's possible that Cano doesn't actually have much power if you take him out of Yankee Stadium.


Except if you consider that his career SLG is only .004 less on the road than at home, and he'shiat more HR on the road than at home this season.

Career HR (home) - 110
Career HR (road) - 94

He has played 14 more games on the road than at home in his career, but even with that, over 9 years it's fewer than 2 HR per year more at home than on the road.
 
2013-09-27 01:40:43 PM
The Yankees died with George.

/thank goodness for that.
 
2013-09-27 02:06:18 PM
No chance.
 
2013-09-27 02:41:52 PM

studleystudstutterson: 6.0+5.5+5.0+4.5+4.0+3.5+3.0+2.5+2.0+1.5 = 37.5 WAR x $6MM/win = $225MM, i.e. Pujols contract.


Question for you or anyone... why is WAR a cumulative statistic?  Seems like it would be a stat you'd average?
 
2013-09-27 02:46:41 PM

downstairs: studleystudstutterson: 6.0+5.5+5.0+4.5+4.0+3.5+3.0+2.5+2.0+1.5 = 37.5 WAR x $6MM/win = $225MM, i.e. Pujols contract.

Question for you or anyone... why is WAR a cumulative statistic?  Seems like it would be a stat you'd average?


My guess is it's like hits... you add more wins the longer you play.
 
2013-09-27 03:05:04 PM

This Looks Fun: downstairs: studleystudstutterson: 6.0+5.5+5.0+4.5+4.0+3.5+3.0+2.5+2.0+1.5 = 37.5 WAR x $6MM/win = $225MM, i.e. Pujols contract.

Question for you or anyone... why is WAR a cumulative statistic?  Seems like it would be a stat you'd average?

My guess is it's like hits... you add more wins the longer you play.


That's accurate.  He's basically saying that if the Yankees replaced Cano with Random Dude (AAA call-up, unsigned free agent asking for minimum salary, etc.) they'd win 6 fewer games next year.  The gap declines over time (as Cano ages, he's expected to perform more poorly), but he's adding up the extra wins signing Cano would bring over each of the next ten years, and coming up with 37.5.  Even at a Yankees-inflated high-end price ($6M/win), $300M is expected to be a terrible deal.

Different people age better or worse, but ~-0.5 wins/year in your 30s is a good historical average.  You can use the opposite trend for guys under 26, which is why people get excited about guys like Trout, Machado, Harper, Simmons, Puig, Harvey, Fernandez, etc.
 
2013-09-27 03:40:19 PM

chimp_ninja: adding up the extra wins signing Cano would bring over each of the next ten years, and coming up with 37.5.  Even at a Yankees-inflated high-end price ($6M/win), $300M is expected to be a terrible deal.


Is $/win an accepted transactional scale for using WAR to calculate contracts? It seems so... logical. Is there any chart for $/win value players? Like a guy with 10 WAR making rookie money? Or a guy with negative WAR getting paid $/loss added? That seems like it would be fun to peruse.
 
2013-09-27 04:01:11 PM

downstairs: studleystudstutterson: 6.0+5.5+5.0+4.5+4.0+3.5+3.0+2.5+2.0+1.5 = 37.5 WAR x $6MM/win = $225MM, i.e. Pujols contract.

Question for you or anyone... why is WAR a cumulative statistic?  Seems like it would be a stat you'd average?


That's something that probably needs to be a little better explored.  JAWS is an attempt to mix both longevity with a player's peak.  I forget exactly how it works, but it's sort of a mashup of career WAR and WAR over a 7 year period.

WAR per season and WAR per game could be looked at more.
 
2013-09-27 04:17:57 PM

This Looks Fun: Is $/win an accepted transactional scale for using WAR to calculate contracts? It seems so... logical. Is there any chart for $/win value players? Like a guy with 10 WAR making rookie money? Or a guy with negative WAR getting paid $/loss added? That seems like it would be fun to peruse.


Currently the value is about $4MM-$5MM for a free agent player, I used an inflated number above just to account for future inflation/dodgers craziness.

I don't know of an actual unified salary vs. WAR chart, but here is a table of player approximate value. The far right column is what the market value of their production is theoretically worth. Setting the min PA to 200 to catch terrible players who didn't even qualify for the batting title and clicking the dollars header twice brings a mess of terribleness led by Maicer Izturis and Yuniesky Betancourt. Also, lots of White Sox.

Another upshot of this table is that Mike Trout's contributions have been worth nearly $100MM over the last two years, or roughly 40% more than the next best players (McCutchen & Cabrera).
 
2013-09-27 04:35:35 PM

Dafatone: That's something that probably needs to be a little better explored. JAWS is an attempt to mix both longevity with a player's peak. I forget exactly how it works, but it's sort of a mashup of career WAR and WAR over a 7 year period.


Yup.  It's the average of your career total and the total of your best 7 seasons.  It's intended to be fair to guys like Sandy Koufax (utterly dominant, but only relatively briefly) as well as Bert Blyleven (excellent for an extended period of time).

This Looks Fun: Like a guy with 10 WAR making rookie money?


That would be Mike Trout.  +20.2 WAR (Fangraphs) in two seasons, makes pretty much the league minimum.

This Looks Fun: Or a guy with negative WAR getting paid $/loss added?


Paul Konerko this year: $13.5M for -1.6 WAR.  Defensively-challenged 1B/DH who plays a lot and isn't hitting.

See also: 2011 Adam Dunn: $12.0M for -3.0 WAR.  Defensively-challenged 1B/DH who played a lot and didn't hit.

This Looks Fun: Is $/win an accepted transactional scale for using WAR to calculate contracts? It seems so... logical.


Your better-run teams at least seem to use it as a scale.  It's a good rough guess.  It also reflects that most GMs are just as happy to have 2 guys who each add 3 wins, vs. 1 guy who adds 6 wins and a no-talent hack.

Other teams (Hi, Kansas City!) have organizational flaws like an inability to understand the value of OBP, and make horrible decisions.  Almost all teams overrate relievers and underrate defense.
 
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