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(Political Wire)   Not news: Intrade 2012 Presidential Election market was weirdly biased towards Romney. News: A single anonymous trader placed 1.2 million pro-Romney bets to boost Romney's optics. Fark: And lost ~$4-7 million in the process   (politicalwire.com ) divider line
    More: Weird, Intrade, Political Wire, Cook Political Report  
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1385 clicks; posted to Politics » on 24 Sep 2013 at 2:05 AM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-09-23 11:36:21 PM  
Best and the Brightest
 
2013-09-23 11:54:50 PM  
Always bet on the blah.
 
2013-09-23 11:57:25 PM  
Maybe, and this is just a hunch, basing everything off current market price instead of facts and logic is a bad idea?
 
2013-09-23 11:57:41 PM  
Free markets people COME ON
 
2013-09-24 12:08:03 AM  
TFA: "The most plausible reason for the betting, the authors conclude, is that 'this trader could have been attempting to manipulate beliefs about the odds of victory in an attempt to boost fundraising, campaign morale, and turnout.'""

s22.postimg.org
 
2013-09-24 12:41:18 AM  
I thought the Generals were due!
 
2013-09-24 12:50:27 AM  
Sheldon Adelson?
 
2013-09-24 01:01:35 AM  
The more things change, the more they stay the same.

i.imgur.com

"It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock speculation."

"A stock operator has to fight a lot expensive enemies within himself."

"I never argue with the tape. Getting sore at the market doesn't get you anywhere."

"There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win. Did you get that? You begin to learn!"

I hope you found your rest after you got tired of fighting, Mr. Livermore because very few people seem to have paid attention.
 
2013-09-24 01:01:42 AM  
We should run the government like a business, because businessmen always make good decisions.
 
2013-09-24 01:06:06 AM  

HighOnCraic: We should run the government like a business, because businessmen always make good decisions.


I think we all fondly recall the economic boom under the "First MBA President."
 
2013-09-24 01:14:27 AM  
images3.wikia.nocookie.net
 
2013-09-24 01:18:39 AM  

Sgt Otter: HighOnCraic: We should run the government like a business, because businessmen always make good decisions.

I think we all fondly recall the economic boom under the "First MBA President."


Just imagine how great things would be if we'd followed his plan to privatize Social Security...  Because no one ever lost money on the stock market...
 
2013-09-24 02:06:14 AM  
garinkilpatrick.com
 
2013-09-24 02:19:44 AM  
So who's going to go check the archives on all the rw derposphere sites to see which ones were pushing this Intrade business suspiciously hard?
 
2013-09-24 02:20:42 AM  
Well, at least one Republican understood Romney's chances.
 
2013-09-24 02:46:02 AM  
I guess I'm glad? Did He die a horrible painful death? Too bad.
 
2013-09-24 02:49:56 AM  
Anonymous?

So R-money could have spent all that himself?

Cos that'd be lulzy.
 
2013-09-24 02:50:39 AM  
People are making fun of this, but it probably influenced more votes for less money than most advertising campaigns.   The cost of changing a swing voter in a swing state is very high.
 
2013-09-24 02:55:27 AM  

wrs1864: People are making fun of this, but it probably influenced more votes for less money than most advertising campaigns.   The cost of changing a swing voter in a swing state is very high.


Yeah, that was money well spent.
 
2013-09-24 03:05:05 AM  
Whoever this person is, I'd love to buy them a beer. They made a fair bit of money for quite a few people that I know in the final month of election season.
 
2013-09-24 03:05:20 AM  

HighOnCraic: wrs1864: People are making fun of this, but it probably influenced more votes for less money than most advertising campaigns.   The cost of changing a swing voter in a swing state is very high.

Yeah, that was money well spent.


Bears repeating.

/Sure, it didn't work, but screwing up Intrade?  Freaking genius.  It gets you in every news cycle as "Vegas odds on Romney.  What do they know that you don't?".  That and Silver were probably the 2 simplest numbers for summing up the state of the election and you just screwed up one of them
 
2013-09-24 03:06:42 AM  

meyerkev: HighOnCraic: wrs1864: People are making fun of this, but it probably influenced more votes for less money than most advertising campaigns.   The cost of changing a swing voter in a swing state is very high.

Yeah, that was money well spent.

Bears repeating.

/Sure, it didn't work, but screwing up Intrade?  Freaking genius.  It gets you in every news cycle as "Vegas odds on Romney.  What do they know that you don't?".  That and Silver were probably the 2 simplest numbers for summing up the state of the election and you just screwed up one of them


If only there was a way to unskew Intrade. . .
 
2013-09-24 03:14:24 AM  
Isn't it illegal to place bets on a presidential election?
 
2013-09-24 03:17:22 AM  
Ice cubes on a red-hot stove'll melt
And I betcha
A drowning man's very first word is "Help!"
And I betcha
 
2013-09-24 03:19:33 AM  

wrs1864: People are making fun of this, but it probably influenced more votes for less money than most advertising campaigns.   The cost of changing a swing voter in a swing state is very high.


More importantly, it erodes confidence in intrade, which could be to your benefit next time around
 
2013-09-24 03:24:55 AM  
All your funny votes belong to me!
 
2013-09-24 03:32:00 AM  
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the stupid tax.
 
2013-09-24 03:35:43 AM  

flondrix: Isn't it illegal to place bets on a presidential election?


Yes, and Intrade got shut down in May because of it.
 
2013-09-24 03:42:47 AM  
no citation available

this was out as a rumor soon after it happened

further - that the difficulty of being able to control the narrative represented by intrade
is why intrade came under the gun (rules and regulations were just the excuse for an otherwise insignificant target)

(that plus the wagers on syria)

no proof available
just sayin
 
2013-09-24 03:57:36 AM  
A fool and his money are soon parted...

flondrix: Isn't it illegal to place bets on a presidential election?


The law doesn't apply to the rich, it only applies to poor people like you and I. It's in the Constitution and the Bible, I think.
 
2013-09-24 04:01:34 AM  
Dude, it had to be Turd Blossom.
 
2013-09-24 04:13:17 AM  

quatchi: Anonymous?

So R-money could have spent all that himself?

Cos that'd be lulzy.


Probably just some Koch sucker.
 
2013-09-24 04:26:16 AM  

Gosling: flondrix: Isn't it illegal to place bets on a presidential election?

Yes, and Intrade got shut down in May because of it.


I thought they got shut down for financial irregularities.  They had been taking bets on elections for some time by that point.
 
2013-09-24 04:29:25 AM  

meyerkev: /Sure, it didn't work, but screwing up Intrade? Freaking genius. It gets you in every news cycle as "Vegas odds on Romney. What do they know that you don't?". That and Silver were probably the 2 simplest numbers for summing up the state of the election and you just screwed up one of them


And then the NYT dismissed Silver.  Hmmm...
 
2013-09-24 04:38:00 AM  

dookdookdook: So who's going to go check the archives on all the rw derposphere sites to see which ones were pushing this Intrade business suspiciously hard?


There are rumors that the McCain had a go at trying to push the Intrade predictions back in 2008, when a number of the political blogs were toying with such markets as possibly being a better predictor than plain polls, although I think the general consensus was such markets didn't have enough participants to be very useful (particularly due to the odd US rules on online gambling). So it wouldn't be a surprise if some attempt to manipulate it was made, I seem to remember JQ was still messing around with it back in early 2012, so it was still alive as a topic, so you could see there being an attempt.
 
2013-09-24 04:45:45 AM  

Paris1127: A fool and his money are soon parted...


How they got together in the first place, I'll never know.
/flicks ashes, wags eyebrows, walks like a duck
 
2013-09-24 05:13:24 AM  
Punched in the crotch by the invisible hand.

Fantastic.
 
2013-09-24 05:37:39 AM  

www.gq.com

3.bp.blogspot.com

 
2013-09-24 05:53:56 AM  
What was InTrade's daily trade volume on the 2012 presidential election?  If there were 1.2 million trades that were, um, apparently not market-motivated, what percentage of total trades was that?

That's thousands of trades a day from one trader - I didn't think InTrade ever got that busy.
 
2013-09-24 06:33:10 AM  
I think I get it.  Republicans don't understand cause and effect.

"If Intrade predicts candidate X will win, then candidate X usually wins.  Therefore if we manipulate Intrade for candidate Y, candidate Y will win."

"Every time there's a scandal in the White House, the media goes apeshiat about it.  Therefore if we can get the media to go apeshiat about BenghazibrellaIRSgate, it'll magically become a scandal."

"Every time the economy gets better, billionaires' net worths double.  Therefore if we throw huge bags of cash at billionaires, the economy will improve."

"After the colonists liberated themselves from British rule, they gave everyone the right to own guns.  Therefore if everyone buys an assload of guns, America will be freer than ever."

"Every time in American history that a black president was allowed to serve out his full term without being impeached and thrown out of office, the planet exploded and all life on Earth was annihilated.  Therefore to prevent the destruction of mankind..."
 
2013-09-24 07:21:07 AM  
As someone who made money off the election, I'm all for more dumb people who don't understand polling skewing the odds.   Hope they do it again in 2016.
 
2013-09-24 07:26:39 AM  

flondrix: Isn't it illegal to place bets on a presidential election?


thepoliticalcarnival.net
"Maybe. I've been told it's illegal to not pay taxes. But here I am."
 
2013-09-24 07:35:02 AM  
Someone in a "free market" tried actually cornering the market?

LTCM nods in approval...
 
2013-09-24 07:43:11 AM  

dookdookdook: I think I get it.  Republicans don't understand cause and effect.

"If Intrade predicts candidate X will win, then candidate X usually wins.  Therefore if we manipulate Intrade for candidate Y, candidate Y will win."

"Every time there's a scandal in the White House, the media goes apeshiat about it.  Therefore if we can get the media to go apeshiat about BenghazibrellaIRSgate, it'll magically become a scandal."

"Every time the economy gets better, billionaires' net worths double.  Therefore if we throw huge bags of cash at billionaires, the economy will improve."

"After the colonists liberated themselves from British rule, they gave everyone the right to own guns.  Therefore if everyone buys an assload of guns, America will be freer than ever."

"Every time in American history that a black president was allowed to serve out his full term without being impeached and thrown out of office, the planet exploded and all life on Earth was annihilated.  Therefore to prevent the destruction of mankind..."


Yeah. That's why they have trouble science. Easier to say God did it.
 
2013-09-24 07:44:14 AM  
Ooh. And I have trouble grammar. I need to remember to hit that preview button.

/though iPad. . . Yeah. . .
 
2013-09-24 08:08:15 AM  
It makes a great deal of sense: The Republicans won two elections (2000 and 2004) by manipulating public opinion into making people think they were going to win.  After losing in 2008, they figured that they hadn't tried hard enough, and that by working to warp the very fabric of reality, they'd easily get what they wanted.  So they set up their own internal polling system which told them what they wanted to hear, funded sites like Unskewedpolls, bought fake Twitter followers and did everything money could do to make Romney look like an attractive and well-like candidate.

Of course, what it all actually was was a vast and very expensive exercise in self-delusion.

What I hope they took away from it was that they didn't try hard enough or spend enough money.
 
2013-09-24 08:12:06 AM  

BubbaWayne: Dude, it had to be Turd Blossom.


Someone in TFA's comments said that it was probably him because of the questions about how he spent the PAC money because it sort of evaporated. Could also explain his melt down at Ohio being called because he lost a *lot* of money.
 
2013-09-24 08:25:40 AM  
All signs point towards Rafalca as the perp.
 
2013-09-24 08:30:58 AM  
a single trader lost between $4 million and $7 million placing a flurry of Intrade bets on Mitt Romney -- perhaps to make the Republican nominee's chance of victory appear brighter," the Wall Street Journal reports.

Or because he really thought Romney was going to win because all of the media he consumes and all of the people he talks to just knew that Romney was going to win.

People make dumb bets on the stock market all the time.  Why should this be any different?
 
2013-09-24 08:32:57 AM  
That was me.  My bad, you guys.

/no it wasn't
 
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