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(Major League Baseball)   Crazy blown rundown, well 2 blown rundowns in a single play. Lead to home being stolen and keeps the Royals hopes of a post season alive. Well not really but we can pretend   (wapc.mlb.com) divider line 46
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1089 clicks; posted to Sports » on 19 Sep 2013 at 10:47 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-09-19 10:52:03 AM  
It was a missed call on a hit and run. The batter missed the call.
Subby your right. It ain't like we are 2.5 back and starting a 3 games series with the Rangers Friday.
 
2013-09-19 10:54:29 AM  
I put that squarely on the catcher.  He was so far inside the base path that the runner from third could just run outside of him without being called out.
 
2013-09-19 10:58:08 AM  
Apparently it was the Royals first steal of home this year. That kinda of surpises me.
 
2013-09-19 11:01:01 AM  
Fail goes to the catcher.

That being said, in that sort of risky situation, there's no need for such a prolonged rundown between 1st and 2nd.  Force the guy back to 1st, throw, and make the play there.  If he's safe, whatever.  At least a run didn't score.
 
2013-09-19 11:03:50 AM  
HA! Stupid Roylas, of course they screwe.... What?

Oh. Ok then. Nevermind.
 
2013-09-19 11:21:33 AM  
The only thing that would have made the play better would have been 100% less Rex Hudler
 
2013-09-19 11:29:35 AM  
2.5 back with a series against one of the teams in front of them next and then a pretty tame final 7 games after that?  I'd say the Royals, while not in the best position are not in terrible position by any means.
 
2013-09-19 11:35:40 AM  
Ha!  The Indians doing Cleveland proud!!

Too bad it was in KC.
 
2013-09-19 11:49:31 AM  
As a lifelong Royals fan-

THIS SEPTEMBER HAS BEEN EXCITING!

/first time in a long time
//sorry for yelling
 
2013-09-19 11:58:30 AM  

srhp29: 2.5 back with a series against one of the teams in front of them next and then a pretty tame final 7 games after that?  I'd say the Royals, while not in the best position are not in terrible position by any means.


The biggest problem is that Cleveland ends the year with Houston, ChiSox, and Minny. Texas also gets three games against us, then ends with Houston and the Angels.

They pretty much have to sweep Texas to have any shot.
 
2013-09-19 12:02:39 PM  

jayhawk88: srhp29: 2.5 back with a series against one of the teams in front of them next and then a pretty tame final 7 games after that?  I'd say the Royals, while not in the best position are not in terrible position by any means.

The biggest problem is that Cleveland ends the year with Houston, ChiSox, and Minny. Texas also gets three games against us, then ends with Houston and the Angels.

They pretty much have to sweep Texas to have any shot.


I'm not certain they have to sweep the Rangers, although it would help immensely, but 2 out of 3 minimum for sure. And they certainly have to win the remaining series and probably have to either sweep the Mariners or White Sox.
 
2013-09-19 12:04:34 PM  

srhp29: 2.5 back with a series against one of the teams in front of them next and then a pretty tame final 7 games after that?  I'd say the Royals, while not in the best position are not in terrible position by any means.


Ignore the AL East, which can possibly just cannibalize itself.

Yeah, the Royals have a decent schedule, but it does involve heading out to Seattle and then to Chicago with no days off.

Meanwhile, the Indians play 6 at home against the Astros & White Sox, then 4 @ Minn, with a day off involved.

Finally, the Rangers play one more at TB, 3 at the Royals, but then head home to play the Astros & Angels (no days off).

Even with the AL East removed, the Royals need to find two more wins than at least one of those teams just to force a tiebreaker (for a tiebreaker). Is that possible? Sure. But that seems pretty tough.
 
2013-09-19 12:05:38 PM  

jayhawk88: srhp29: 2.5 back with a series against one of the teams in front of them next and then a pretty tame final 7 games after that?  I'd say the Royals, while not in the best position are not in terrible position by any means.

The biggest problem is that Cleveland ends the year with Houston, ChiSox, and Minny. Texas also gets three games against us, then ends with Houston and the Angels.

They pretty much have to sweep Texas to have any shot.


That'll teach me to reword my post for no reason.
 
2013-09-19 12:08:03 PM  
Please let the Pirates AND Royals make the playoffs. Just to shine a big spotlight on what disaster the Blue Jays have been. I kid you not, the general consensus was that 2012 was their worst season ever, not record wise, but in regards to hope vs. outcome. 2013 has been worse, much worse. Fire everyone!
 
2013-09-19 12:18:19 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Even with the AL East removed, the Royals need to find two more wins than at least one of those teams just to force a tiebreaker (for a tiebreaker). Is that possible? Sure. But that seems pretty tough.


Full games are just so hard to make up when you're not playing the teams your chasing. Why that game Tuesday was so devastating.
 
2013-09-19 12:18:55 PM  

satanorsanta: I put that squarely on the catcher.  He was so far inside the base path that the runner from third could just run outside of him without being called out.


No, third baseman screwed up all the way.  The rule of thumb in defense during a rundown is to throw forward and chase back -- 3B should have thrown instead of chasing, then catcher has time to make the play from in front of the runner or chase back to third and make one throw once the runner is committed to the base.  Remember, on this play the catcher can't block the basepath (until he gets the ball) - he's required to be out of the way.  That's why he needs the ball well before the runner gets to him.
 
2013-09-19 12:22:33 PM  
I would love to see a 6 team clusterfark at the end of the season, all tied with the same record for the 2 wild card spots.

Let them fight it out with each other.
 
2013-09-19 12:26:40 PM  

mainstreet62: I would love to see a 6 team clusterfark at the end of the season, all tied with the same record for the 2 wild card spots.

Let them fight it out with each other.


Which raises a bit of a philosophical question: would that count as making the playoffs for all those teams?
 
2013-09-19 12:31:14 PM  

DeWayne Mann: mainstreet62: I would love to see a 6 team clusterfark at the end of the season, all tied with the same record for the 2 wild card spots.

Let them fight it out with each other.

Which raises a bit of a philosophical question: would that count as making the playoffs for all those teams?


No.  Playoffs to make the playoffs are considered regular season games.
 
2013-09-19 12:31:42 PM  

DeWayne Mann: mainstreet62: I would love to see a 6 team clusterfark at the end of the season, all tied with the same record for the 2 wild card spots.

Let them fight it out with each other.

Which raises a bit of a philosophical question: would that count as making the playoffs for all those teams?


They're fighting specifically to go to the next level of competition by playing games that are not explicitly scheduled for the regular season.

I'd say yes, that counts as the playoffs.
 
2013-09-19 12:37:58 PM  

srhp29: DeWayne Mann: mainstreet62: I would love to see a 6 team clusterfark at the end of the season, all tied with the same record for the 2 wild card spots.

Let them fight it out with each other.

Which raises a bit of a philosophical question: would that count as making the playoffs for all those teams?

No.  Playoffs to make the playoffs are considered regular season games.


I guess, despite my use of the word "philosophical" rather than "rulebook definition", I was unclear.

mainstreet62: They're fighting specifically to go to the next level of competition by playing games that are not explicitly scheduled for the regular season.

I'd say yes, that counts as the playoffs.


This is more of what I was looking for.

(Personally, I don't consider anything before the DS the playoffs)
 
2013-09-19 12:43:52 PM  
How would we break a six way tie?
 
2013-09-19 12:46:40 PM  

Mid_mo_mad_man: How would we break a six way tie?


They haven't announced how to do anything more than a 4-way tie yet.

I'm not actually sure a 6-way tie is possible, come to think of it. I might play around with that
 
2013-09-19 12:49:09 PM  

mainstreet62: DeWayne Mann: mainstreet62: I would love to see a 6 team clusterfark at the end of the season, all tied with the same record for the 2 wild card spots.

Let them fight it out with each other.

Which raises a bit of a philosophical question: would that count as making the playoffs for all those teams?

They're fighting specifically to go to the next level of competition by playing games that are not explicitly scheduled for the regular season.

I'd say yes, that counts as the playoffs.


The stats count as regular season. Fantasy leagues are extended to that play-in game.
 
2013-09-19 12:52:20 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Mid_mo_mad_man: How would we break a six way tie?

They haven't announced how to do anything more than a 4-way tie yet.

I'm not actually sure a 6-way tie is possible, come to think of it. I might play around with that




I'm not saying it is. I was just giving food for thought. Because a 8 or 4 way would be easy. Just play a sudden death till two are standing.
 
2013-09-19 12:53:03 PM  

DeWayne Mann: I'm not actually sure a 6-way tie is possible, come to think of it. I might play around with that


Ok, the Rays nearly screwed things up, but yeah, they can all tie at 85wins (and possibly 86 but I'm too lazy to do it again)

Course, that requires the Astros to be the best team in baseball, but stranger things have happened.
 
2013-09-19 01:00:09 PM  

jayhawk88: srhp29: 2.5 back with a series against one of the teams in front of them next and then a pretty tame final 7 games after that?  I'd say the Royals, while not in the best position are not in terrible position by any means.

The biggest problem is that Cleveland ends the year with Houston, ChiSox, and Minny. Texas also gets three games against us, then ends with Houston and the Angels.

They pretty much have to sweep Texas to have any shot.


Have you SEEN the way Texas is playing right now? That's entirely possible.
 
2013-09-19 01:01:25 PM  

Mid_mo_mad_man: DeWayne Mann: Mid_mo_mad_man: How would we break a six way tie?

They haven't announced how to do anything more than a 4-way tie yet.

I'm not actually sure a 6-way tie is possible, come to think of it. I might play around with that

I'm not saying it is. I was just giving food for thought. Because a 8 or 4 way would be easy. Just play a sudden death till two are standing.


If I were in charge, I'd do it by using NFL-like seeding.

Compare the records of all the games the 6 teams played against each other, and seed highest to lowest by win %.

1) Have the #3 play the #6 at #3's stadium, have #4 play #5 at #4's stadium.

2) Then #1 seed plays the lowest seed still standing at home, and the #2 plays the other team at home.

Then you have the 2 wildcards, who will then proceed to duke it out as usual.
 
2013-09-19 01:03:33 PM  

Mid_mo_mad_man: How would we break a six way tie?


Next year, Bud Selig will decree that Spring training games count.
 
2013-09-19 01:08:18 PM  

mainstreet62: If I were in charge, I'd do it by using NFL-like seeding.

Compare the records of all the games the 6 teams played against each other, and seed highest to lowest by win %.

1) Have the #3 play the #6 at #3's stadium, have #4 play #5 at #4's stadium.

2) Then #1 seed plays the lowest seed still standing at home, and the #2 plays the other team at home.

Then you have the 2 wildcards, who will then proceed to duke it out as usual.


It's worth mentioning the 3 way tiebreaker scenario, which is sort of like half of this idea, but with a somewhat important twist.

With 3 teams, the records are compared in a certain way. The "winner" of this chooses if they want to be team A, B or C. Then the next best team chooses, and the third best takes whatever left (spoiler: B will be left).

B plays at A in game 1. The winner of that hosts C.

So, A has to win twice but has home field in both. B has to win twice and has home field in one. C has to win once on the road.

B clearly has the worst draw, but it's tough to say if A or C is better.
 
2013-09-19 01:11:14 PM  

Minarets: jayhawk88: srhp29: 2.5 back with a series against one of the teams in front of them next and then a pretty tame final 7 games after that?  I'd say the Royals, while not in the best position are not in terrible position by any means.

The biggest problem is that Cleveland ends the year with Houston, ChiSox, and Minny. Texas also gets three games against us, then ends with Houston and the Angels.

They pretty much have to sweep Texas to have any shot.

Have you SEEN the way Texas is playing right now? That's entirely possible.


Indeed. The Royals are actually in the very good position of missing Darvish during the Rangers series & very likely Hernandez in the Mariners series. It's very possible that the only pitching matchup that they "lose" the rest of the way will be Iwakuma vs. Ventura. The only thing they really need to happen is for the Rays/Yankees/Orioles to beat up on each other while they play winnable games the rest of the way.
 
2013-09-19 01:15:22 PM  

DeWayne Mann: mainstreet62: If I were in charge, I'd do it by using NFL-like seeding.

Compare the records of all the games the 6 teams played against each other, and seed highest to lowest by win %.

1) Have the #3 play the #6 at #3's stadium, have #4 play #5 at #4's stadium.

2) Then #1 seed plays the lowest seed still standing at home, and the #2 plays the other team at home.

Then you have the 2 wildcards, who will then proceed to duke it out as usual.

It's worth mentioning the 3 way tiebreaker scenario, which is sort of like half of this idea, but with a somewhat important twist.

With 3 teams, the records are compared in a certain way. The "winner" of this chooses if they want to be team A, B or C. Then the next best team chooses, and the third best takes whatever left (spoiler: B will be left).

B plays at A in game 1. The winner of that hosts C.

So, A has to win twice but has home field in both. B has to win twice and has home field in one. C has to win once on the road.

B clearly has the worst draw, but it's tough to say if A or C is better.


I would say C is best.

If those 3 teams have a 50% chance of winning each game, then whichever team plays 2 games has a 25% chance of winning both games and advancing, and a 75% chance of losing a game and going home.

However, a team that has only 1 game has a 50% chance of advancing to the post season.

You can adjust the win probability for home and road however you want, but I doubt it's going to stray far enough away from 50% to actually matter.
 
2013-09-19 01:23:21 PM  

mainstreet62: I would say C is best.


I think the deciding factor for me would be the rotation.

Let's say you're Texas, and the other two teams are the Rays and the Orioles. If Yu Darvish is available, I want to be C, since he's better than anyone those teams might throw at me. But if Yu pitches game 162 then I'm probably picking A and hoping my offense shows up for 2 games.

(By the way, 3 way tie for TWO wild cards is a little different. The winner of A/B wins wild card #1. The loser of A/B goes to C, and the winner of that wins card#2.

In that case, A is clearly the best.)
 
2013-09-19 01:25:03 PM  

UNAUTHORIZED FINGER: Mid_mo_mad_man: How would we break a six way tie?

Next year, Bud Selig will decree that Spring training games count.


Don't even say that. You may give him ideas.
 
2013-09-19 01:43:12 PM  
I'm kinda surpised this is the first wild card or pennant race thread. Is it because the only races are AL wild and NL Central?
 
2013-09-19 02:19:34 PM  

srhp29: 2.5 back with a series against one of the teams in front of them next and then a pretty tame final 7 games after that?  I'd say the Royals, while not in the best position are not in terrible position by any means.


They have to jump 4 teams to take a wildcard spot. That's pretty much impossible given the number of games remaining.
 
2013-09-19 02:35:27 PM  

freak7: srhp29: 2.5 back with a series against one of the teams in front of them next and then a pretty tame final 7 games after that?  I'd say the Royals, while not in the best position are not in terrible position by any means.

They have to jump 4 teams to take a wildcard spot. That's pretty much impossible given the number of games remaining.




3 teams are ahead of them and head to with the second WC team this weekend. It's possible they are in one of the spots Sunday night. Baltimore, Tampa, and NY most likely end each other off. Texas is free falling. If KC takes care of business CLE will be its biggest worry
 
2013-09-19 02:38:24 PM  

Mid_mo_mad_man: 3 teams are ahead of them


4 teams are ahead of them right now, the Yankees hold the tiebreaker.

Texas
Cleveland
Baltimore
New York
 
2013-09-19 02:42:27 PM  

Mid_mo_mad_man: It was a missed call on a hit and run. The batter missed the call.
Subby your right. It ain't like we are 2.5 back and starting a 3 games series with the Rangers Friday.


Three games with a team that is imploding? That is a good sign.
 
2013-09-19 02:53:56 PM  

freak7: Mid_mo_mad_man: 3 teams are ahead of them

4 teams are ahead of them right now, the Yankees hold the tiebreaker.

Texas
Cleveland
Baltimore
New York


It is strange to say but Texas may be the most likely team not to make the post season. Houston is looking like the better team right now.


Verducci

had a nice perspective on this. sad to see.
 
2013-09-19 02:55:51 PM  

jayhawk88: srhp29: 2.5 back with a series against one of the teams in front of them next and then a pretty tame final 7 games after that?  I'd say the Royals, while not in the best position are not in terrible position by any means.

The biggest problem is that Cleveland ends the year with Houston, ChiSox, and Minny. Texas also gets three games against us, then ends with Houston and the Angels.

They pretty much have to sweep Texas to have any shot.


Don't worry... the Angeles can take them... provided we don't have to use our bull pen.
 
2013-09-19 02:59:05 PM  

JPINFV: jayhawk88: srhp29: 2.5 back with a series against one of the teams in front of them next and then a pretty tame final 7 games after that?  I'd say the Royals, while not in the best position are not in terrible position by any means.

The biggest problem is that Cleveland ends the year with Houston, ChiSox, and Minny. Texas also gets three games against us, then ends with Houston and the Angels.

They pretty much have to sweep Texas to have any shot.

Don't worry... the Angeles can take them... provided we don't have to use our bull pen.


Grenke is looking pretty good, when he isnt crazy.
// hated to see him leave KC.
 
2013-09-19 03:15:06 PM  

tobcc: JPINFV: jayhawk88: srhp29: 2.5 back with a series against one of the teams in front of them next and then a pretty tame final 7 games after that?  I'd say the Royals, while not in the best position are not in terrible position by any means.

The biggest problem is that Cleveland ends the year with Houston, ChiSox, and Minny. Texas also gets three games against us, then ends with Houston and the Angels.

They pretty much have to sweep Texas to have any shot.

Don't worry... the Angeles can take them... provided we don't have to use our bull pen.

Grenke is looking pretty good, when he isnt crazy.
// hated to see him leave KC.




You do relize that Zach is a Dodger? On the topic of the trade, it had to happen. We ended up getting to solid players.
 
2013-09-19 03:26:28 PM  

floor: It is strange to say but Texas may be the most likely team not to make the post season. Houston is looking like the better team right now.

Verducci
had a nice perspective on this. sad to see.


There's no real reason to think that how Texas has played recently will predict how they play going forward. There haven't been any significant injuries, for instance. It's still largely the team it was in August (which was itself largely the team it was the rest of the year with a different RF). "Momentum" doesn't really overrule talent.

Fangraphs has three ways of doing playoff projections. The one that likes the Rangers least is described as follows:

This mode uses current season stats, weighted more heavily towards the most recent games, to calculate the winning percentage of each remaining game in the major league season.

Even then, they have the Rangers at a 48.3% chance of winning a wild card.

(By the way, that same mode is also the BEST for the Royals....and they have a 9.9% chance).
 
2013-09-19 04:15:12 PM  
At least Cleveland has the Browns.  Oh wait...
 
2013-09-19 04:24:38 PM  
Since the Tigers (who I hate the most) have it locked up already, I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox play spoiler to the Indians to keep them out of the postseason, because well, fark Cleveland.

Pulling for the Royals even though it's going to be tough for them.
 
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