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(io9)   45% of American jobs will be done by computers in 20 years. [superfunnyjoke]your mom will be done by computers [/superfunnyjoke] (auto-submitted by "subby 1.0 beta" software)   (io9.com) divider line 145
    More: Scary, American Jobs, your mom, computers, futurists  
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4021 clicks; posted to Business » on 13 Sep 2013 at 8:38 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-09-13 08:30:04 PM
Evolution is not to be feared
 
2013-09-13 08:40:54 PM
www.marxists.org

This guy saw this shiat coming ~150 years ago.
 
2013-09-13 08:41:09 PM

cman: Evolution is not to be feared


We'll see if you're still singing that tune when the spider bears rise.
 
2013-09-13 08:41:34 PM
Betas start with 0.
 
2013-09-13 08:41:47 PM
Not bad for a beta version.

I for one welcome our new subbybot overlords.
 
2013-09-13 08:41:49 PM
Errr...at what point do people basically buy automatons and rent them out to do work?
 
2013-09-13 08:42:33 PM
I for one welcome our new robot overlords
 
2013-09-13 08:43:10 PM
Yeah but we still need to build and maintain those computers, at least until we have computers that can do that, and even then we will still need humans to build and maintain the computers that build and maintain the computers that do 45% of our jobs,so fear not
 
2013-09-13 08:43:14 PM

Bareefer Obonghit: cman: Evolution is not to be feared

We'll see if you're still singing that tune when the spider bears rise.


I'm more concerned about:

images1.wikia.nocookie.net
 
2013-09-13 08:43:38 PM
Well played tinyfist, well played...
 
2013-09-13 08:43:50 PM
My Sociology-major friend had a book on her shelf published in the late '70s or early '80s about how within a decade the microcomputer revolution would lead to mass unemployment and poverty, and society would have to be redesigned or it would collapse. I really wish I could remember the title of it to post in threads like this.
 
2013-09-13 08:44:29 PM
Will?
 
2013-09-13 08:46:46 PM
When it comes to technological trends the best predictor is the military. Watch how that works first and you can almost be sure the civilian world will likely follow suit.
If you see the military using lots of autonomous UAVs, robots, droids etc in the future then it is very likely the civilian world will adopt them as well few years later for commercial use. If a droid or some machine can be made to shoot, dodge and disable IEDs reprogramming it to mow the lawn and clean gutters would be a piece of cake.
 
2013-09-13 08:47:08 PM
Well, as someone who works in the computer industry, I could see it happening....eventually...but then again...seeing how crappy the business hardware/software is on a daily basis, I am not to worried.

Not really going out on a limb here in saying I'll still be able to find a job until the day I decide to retire.
 
2013-09-13 08:48:32 PM
Meh.  They said that before, over 20 years ago.
 
2013-09-13 08:48:56 PM

SuperNinjaToad: When it comes to technological trends the best predictor is the military. Watch how that works first and you can almost be sure the civilian world will likely follow suit.
If you see the military using lots of autonomous UAVs, robots, droids etc in the future then it is very likely the civilian world will adopt them as well few years later for commercial use. If a droid or some machine can be made to shoot, dodge and disable IEDs reprogramming it to mow the lawn and clean gutters would be a piece of cake.


I need a lawnmower bot that can handle the steep hills and large rocks on my property. Where can I get one?
 
2013-09-13 08:49:51 PM
Subby's so beta, brah.
 
2013-09-13 08:51:21 PM
Back in the 60s people thought that computers would lead to the 20-hour work week. Instead, management decided to make one guy do the work of two, and pay him half, because "the computer does all the work!"
 
2013-09-13 08:51:23 PM
Men. We'll all be dead of airborne super syphyllis by then.
 
2013-09-13 08:52:27 PM
www.biography.com

So you're saying I could run in 2032 and I'd have a chance...?
 
2013-09-13 08:53:29 PM

video man: [www.marxists.org image 390x477]

This guy saw this shiat coming ~150 years ago.


cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com

This guy also saw this shiat coming, about 40 years ago.
 
2013-09-13 08:53:32 PM

ryant123: My Sociology-major friend had a book on her shelf published in the late '70s or early '80s about how within a decade the microcomputer revolution would lead to mass unemployment and poverty, and society would have to be redesigned or it would collapse. I really wish I could remember the title of it to post in threads like this.


Thing is, aspects of society did get redesigned to accommodate new technology. Just very, very slowly. And it's happening now, and it will continue to happen in the future.
 
2013-09-13 08:54:08 PM

phillydrifter: Betas start with 0.


Betas start with whatever number the developer(s) want them to start with.

As for the article, what they're failing to mention is that most of the jobs being replaced by computers will simply result in more jobs maintaining and supporting said computers, so we're not going to see 45% of our jobs disappear, they're just going to shift to a different industry.
 
2013-09-13 08:54:52 PM

silverjets: Meh.  They said that before, over 20 years ago.


nothing to 'meh' about.. robots have replaced millions of manufacturing jobs in the US in the past 20, 30 years. Part of the reason why Detroit is Detroit today and many other cities in the rust belt. and no the human labor to make robots or robots of robots is significantly less than the labor to make cars, planes, tanks etc.. lol
 
2013-09-13 08:56:31 PM

bingethinker: Back in the 60s people thought that computers would lead to the 20-hour work week. Instead, management decided to make one guy do the work of two, and pay him half, because "the computer does all the work!"


Yay capitalism!

Who would have thought that increases in productivity would primarily benefit the capitalists, while further increasing the surplus labor pool?
 
2013-09-13 08:57:19 PM
Sex with a robot will never be as good as sex with a skilled, caring woman. Hooker jobs are safe.
 
2013-09-13 08:57:55 PM
Meh, as long as we don't give them emotions...ah farking scientists. http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aP6uxt3JJSU&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DaP 6uxt3JJSU
 
2013-09-13 08:58:18 PM
My brother works for a company that is designing a reprogrammable, sorta-humanoid robot that can be programmed to do different jobs - for small companies that are too big to have dedicated single-task robots like are used now.

It's harder than it sounds to get things to do real tasks, because the real world is a very imprecise, unpredictable place.

Apparently right now, the robot is pretty much that guy from that one gym ad. You know: "[Schwarzenegger accent] I lift things up, and put dem down."
 
2013-09-13 09:02:00 PM
We're quickly hitting the point where everybody having to work 40 hours a week doesn't make sense.  Even today many office jobs consist of bursts of activity and lots of internet surfing.  "Looking busy" is a necessary career skill.  Once automation really starts taking over the service industry, there won't be enough jobs to go around.  Automated McDonald's are coming and once they do, EVERY fast food chain will follow quickly.  That's millions of jobs that will never exist again.  We'll either have to drastically limit the hours people are allowed to work or accept that a major portion of society won't work for a living.
 
2013-09-13 09:02:20 PM
Predicting the future is easy when there's no accountability...
www.zaporacle.com
 
2013-09-13 09:02:30 PM

phillydrifter: Betas start with 0.


Who says this was his first attempt?
 
2013-09-13 09:03:12 PM
In the future will robots be writing half-assed 'articles' where the author simply introduces a question, cites a passage, and then rephrases the question.

Poorly done study says:
"Yeah, prolly will!"


So what does the future hold for click-throughs?
 
2013-09-13 09:04:04 PM

Rhino_man: SuperNinjaToad: When it comes to technological trends the best predictor is the military. Watch how that works first and you can almost be sure the civilian world will likely follow suit.
If you see the military using lots of autonomous UAVs, robots, droids etc in the future then it is very likely the civilian world will adopt them as well few years later for commercial use. If a droid or some machine can be made to shoot, dodge and disable IEDs reprogramming it to mow the lawn and clean gutters would be a piece of cake.

I need a lawnmower bot that can handle the steep hills and large rocks on my property. Where can I get one?


not where but when. Check SEARS sometime in 2030.. might be one available for $599.95. If you have a flat lawn well there is already one on the market today but I suspect you may know about it already.
 
2013-09-13 09:09:03 PM

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: We're quickly hitting the point where everybody having to work 40 hours a week doesn't make sense.  Even today many office jobs consist of bursts of activity and lots of internet surfing.  "Looking busy" is a necessary career skill.  Once automation really starts taking over the service industry, there won't be enough jobs to go around.  Automated McDonald's are coming and once they do, EVERY fast food chain will follow quickly.  That's millions of jobs that will never exist again.  We'll either have to drastically limit the hours people are allowed to work or accept that a major portion of society won't work for a living.


But... but... soshulizms and bootstraps! THANKS, OBAMA!
 
2013-09-13 09:09:14 PM

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: We're quickly hitting the point where everybody having to work 40 hours a week doesn't make sense.  Even today many office jobs consist of bursts of activity and lots of internet surfing.  "Looking busy" is a necessary career skill.  Once automation really starts taking over the service industry, there won't be enough jobs to go around.  Automated McDonald's are coming and once they do, EVERY fast food chain will follow quickly.  That's millions of jobs that will never exist again.  We'll either have to drastically limit the hours people are allowed to work or accept that a major portion of society won't work for a living.


Or have them enter the workforce later in life.  Longer adolescence.
 
2013-09-13 09:10:01 PM

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: We're quickly hitting the point where everybody having to work 40 hours a week doesn't make sense.  Even today many office jobs consist of bursts of activity and lots of internet surfing.  "Looking busy" is a necessary career skill.  Once automation really starts taking over the service industry, there won't be enough jobs to go around.  Automated McDonald's are coming and once they do, EVERY fast food chain will follow quickly.  That's millions of jobs that will never exist again.  We'll either have to drastically limit the hours people are allowed to work or accept that a major portion of society won't work for a living.


Only poor people work at McDonald's anyway.

And nothing of value was lost.
 
2013-09-13 09:10:39 PM
Wake me up when androids dream of electric sheep.
 
2013-09-13 09:11:34 PM

BummerDuck: Well, as someone who works in the computer industry, I could see it happening....eventually...but then again...seeing how crappy the business hardware/software is on a daily basis, I am not to worried.

Not really going out on a limb here in saying I'll still be able to find a job until the day I decide to retire.


If we built houses like we build software, the first woodpecker to come along would destroy civilization.

And the peak of technology moves quickly.  but the edges move very slowly.

We could have these technologies as viable alternatives within a few years, but it will take a decade or more to get most of the US on board.
 
2013-09-13 09:13:32 PM
All of my customized masturbation techniques are now handled by Linux Mint.
 
2013-09-13 09:13:44 PM

A Non Amos: Computers require external input to operate. To the best of my knowledge they cannot interpret external stimuli without a method of sensing and analyzing the objects, and being able to act upon what's in front of it by programmed functions, which leaves me wondering how robots can be built to properly cope with unforeseen hazards.


We're a long way from robots being completely independent but the problem for the near future is that you don't need nearly as many people fixing robots as you do making widgets.  And that's why the article says 45% and not 100%
 
2013-09-13 09:14:04 PM
FTFA: futurists

Yeah, those guys are ALWAYS right.
 
2013-09-13 09:14:30 PM
Guinan: Consider that in the history of many worlds there have always been disposable creatures. They do the dirty work. They do the work that no one else wants to do, because it's too difficult and too hazardous. With an army of Datas, all disposable, you don't have to think about their welfare, or you don't think about how they feel. Whole generations of disposable people.
 
2013-09-13 09:16:18 PM
This is a repeat from 1955.
 
2013-09-13 09:18:03 PM

Atomic Spunk: Sex with a robot will never be as good as sex with a skilled, caring woman. Hooker jobs are safe.


How are guys going to pay to the hookers, since they're all going to be unemployed?
 
2013-09-13 09:18:29 PM

silverjets: Meh.  They said that before, over 20 years ago.


Another Government Employee: This is a repeat from 1955.


Bingo and Bingo
 
2013-09-13 09:18:38 PM

uber humper: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: We're quickly hitting the point where everybody having to work 40 hours a week doesn't make sense.  Even today many office jobs consist of bursts of activity and lots of internet surfing.  "Looking busy" is a necessary career skill.  Once automation really starts taking over the service industry, there won't be enough jobs to go around.  Automated McDonald's are coming and once they do, EVERY fast food chain will follow quickly.  That's millions of jobs that will never exist again.  We'll either have to drastically limit the hours people are allowed to work or accept that a major portion of society won't work for a living.

Or have them enter the workforce later in life.  Longer adolescence.


That's what's happening now, a record low % of teenagers have jobs these days.  And far fewer young people are buying cars.  Many more live at home or move back in after college.  Similarly, the elderly find it almost impossible to get jobs, once you're past 50 it becomes increasingly difficult.  That age squeeze will continue from both directions until it will be normal to start work in your early 30's and retire in your late 50's.
 
2013-09-13 09:19:06 PM
When we come up with a computer that sells computers to other computers, we're screwed.

...Unless we happen to sell the computer that does that.

Hmmmmm....
 
2013-09-13 09:19:32 PM
i work for a manufacturing company whose main selling point is "hand crafted". many of our folks have 20 years or more of experience. can our product be mass produced by machines? mostly. but that's not what sells the product.

and i do equipment repair for a collection of machines that no single robot will ever master. for one thing it's not economically viable to have robots do my work.
 
2013-09-13 09:20:12 PM

acohn: Atomic Spunk: Sex with a robot will never be as good as sex with a skilled, caring woman. Hooker jobs are safe.

How are guys going to pay to the hookers, since they're all going to be unemployed?


Just kill them when you're done. Cheaper that way.
 
2013-09-13 09:21:03 PM

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: uber humper: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: We're quickly hitting the point where everybody having to work 40 hours a week doesn't make sense.  Even today many office jobs consist of bursts of activity and lots of internet surfing.  "Looking busy" is a necessary career skill.  Once automation really starts taking over the service industry, there won't be enough jobs to go around.  Automated McDonald's are coming and once they do, EVERY fast food chain will follow quickly.  That's millions of jobs that will never exist again.  We'll either have to drastically limit the hours people are allowed to work or accept that a major portion of society won't work for a living.

Or have them enter the workforce later in life.  Longer adolescence.

That's what's happening now, a record low % of teenagers have jobs these days.  And far fewer young people are buying cars.  Many more live at home or move back in after college.  Similarly, the elderly find it almost impossible to get jobs, once you're past 50 it becomes increasingly difficult.  That age squeeze will continue from both directions until it will be normal to start work in your early 30's and retire in your late 50's.


Retirement for many will be death either by suicide or on the job.
 
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