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(Politico)   The Republican's chances of retaking the Senate this fall are in serious jeopardy as the GOP money machine is grinding to a halt as donations dry up. It seems even fabulously wealthy plutocrats want to see some kind of ROI on their donations   (politico.com) divider line 81
    More: Interesting, Kentucky Republican, GOP, Senate, plutocrats, humans, donations, American Crossroads, Jerry Moran  
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1663 clicks; posted to Politics » on 12 Sep 2013 at 1:34 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-09-12 02:16:46 PM  

urbangirl: spman: JerseyTim: What does Nate Silver say? The rest of just bullshiat.

Nate Silver has been MIA since transitioning over to ESPN / ABC. According to Cook Political Report http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings, the GOP is fairly strongly favored to win in Montana, West Virginia, and almost certainly will turn South Dakota. If they can take Arkansas and one other, and Alaska is probably their best chance, they will control the Senate.


This is assuming they don't lose other places like Kentucky, which is rapidly becoming a possibility.

Never underestimate the power of the Tea Party to screw over the GOP.

/not saying Dems should be complacent
//it's entirely possible the GOP House will get TP'd as well
 
2013-09-12 02:16:46 PM  

HotWingConspiracy: McRove


New McDonald's menu item?
 
2013-09-12 02:18:35 PM  
But Republicans have a problem: cash.

They have more problems than that. The House can't get enough votes to pass anything they want because of the Tea Party schism, meanwhile we have a debt ceiling deadline looming and they still want to tie it to repealing Obamacare.

Will anyone remember this in 2014? Well, I guess that depends on their play in the next few weeks. Given Boehner's tradition at being horrible at his job, I'd say they're aiming for their big toe.
 
2013-09-12 02:22:01 PM  

Fuggin Bizzy: HotWingConspiracy: McRove

New McDonald's menu item?


100% fat, grease, bluster and absolutely no nutritional value whatsoever. It'll fit right in.
 
2013-09-12 02:24:11 PM  
this is what happens when you let talk radio run your party
 
2013-09-12 02:27:14 PM  

obenchainr: urbangirl: spman: JerseyTim: What does Nate Silver say? The rest of just bullshiat.

Nate Silver has been MIA since transitioning over to ESPN / ABC. According to Cook Political Report http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings, the GOP is fairly strongly favored to win in Montana, West Virginia, and almost certainly will turn South Dakota. If they can take Arkansas and one other, and Alaska is probably their best chance, they will control the Senate.

This is assuming they don't lose other places like Kentucky, which is rapidly becoming a possibility.

Never underestimate the power of the Tea Party to screw over the GOP.

/not saying Dems should be complacent
//it's entirely possible the GOP House will get TP'd as well


If the GOP takes the Senate it will be a disaster, the next two years will just be an endless cycle of pants-on-head-retarded bills getting pushed, vetoed, and failing the override.  No appointees will be able to be confirmed, and things will fall even more into gridlock.

If the Democrats can keep the Senate and somehow pull off a takeover of the house, we could have two solid years of freaking awesome progress unimpeded by the GOP.
 
2013-09-12 02:37:45 PM  

TuteTibiImperes: obenchainr: urbangirl: spman: JerseyTim: What does Nate Silver say? The rest of just bullshiat.

Nate Silver has been MIA since transitioning over to ESPN / ABC. According to Cook Political Report http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings, the GOP is fairly strongly favored to win in Montana, West Virginia, and almost certainly will turn South Dakota. If they can take Arkansas and one other, and Alaska is probably their best chance, they will control the Senate.

This is assuming they don't lose other places like Kentucky, which is rapidly becoming a possibility.

Never underestimate the power of the Tea Party to screw over the GOP.

/not saying Dems should be complacent
//it's entirely possible the GOP House will get TP'd as well

If the GOP takes the Senate it will be a disaster, the next two years will just be an endless cycle of pants-on-head-retarded bills getting pushed, vetoed, and failing the override.  No appointees will be able to be confirmed, and things will fall even more into gridlock.

If the Democrats can keep the Senate and somehow pull off a takeover of the house, we could have two solid years of freaking awesome progress unimpeded by the GOP.


It will most probably be the first one. And i know most of the rest of the planet will watch on in morbid amusement as the US Implodes into a derp singularity.
 
2013-09-12 02:39:51 PM  
Dear lord this took me way too long to find, but a chart on the ROI of super PACs and the candidates they supported:

www.theblaze.com
 
2013-09-12 02:42:12 PM  

EighthDay: zetar: Mentat: This is the map in 2016:

[i1282.photobucket.com image 800x495]

The Democratic incumbents comprise most of the Democratic Senate leadership or strong incumbents (Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer, Barbara Boxer, Patrick Leahy).  You have to assume the DNC will make a full-court press in the Rust Belt, and North Carolina will likely be in play as well based on all the crap their legislature is pulling right now.

I'm sorry, are you suggesting that Braley (D) is going to lose in Iowa for Harkin's (retiring) senate seat?

That's 2016, not 2014.  Harkin is retiring in 2014.  2016 is Grassley (R) who has not yet announced intentions.


Thanks for that clarification. Grassley will be 83 in 2016.
 
2013-09-12 02:47:15 PM  

DamnYankees: Even if they don't retake the Senate, best case for Dems is holding, like, 51 seats. Hardly a great thing.


Wasn't the best case for the Dems "lose the Senate" in 2012? The past two cycles, the GOP has taken seats they by all rights should have won and just handed them over to the Dems because they put up candidates who were completely, totally unacceptable. They had Harry Reid dead to rights and then they put up Sharron Angle. They had Chris Coons dead to rights and then they put up Christine O'Donnell instead of Michael Castle. They had Claire McCaskill dead to rights and then Todd Akin happened. It's clearly primed to happen again this cycle no matter what the map tells you at first glance. The big question is where is it going to happen and what races are they going to flush down the toilet.
 
2013-09-12 02:49:29 PM  
Portman's just boring enough to be perfectly safe in Ohio. I mean, he was Romney's point man and is so bland it's almost cute. He's fine.

Johnson's seat in the wasteland will most likely flip because the State Dems are beaten down and weak as hell. Who knows though, the GOP primary field here is filled to the brim with Tea party assholes and idiots who could turn off many people.
 
2013-09-12 02:49:33 PM  
The Republicans are going to win all the states, until they actually nominate a candidate....  and the candidate turns out to be a douche bag who says insane racist/women hating things.

Rinse and repeat the past 10 years...
 
2013-09-12 02:49:50 PM  

TuteTibiImperes: obenchainr: urbangirl: spman: JerseyTim: What does Nate Silver say? The rest of just bullshiat.

Nate Silver has been MIA since transitioning over to ESPN / ABC. According to Cook Political Report http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings, the GOP is fairly strongly favored to win in Montana, West Virginia, and almost certainly will turn South Dakota. If they can take Arkansas and one other, and Alaska is probably their best chance, they will control the Senate.

This is assuming they don't lose other places like Kentucky, which is rapidly becoming a possibility.

Never underestimate the power of the Tea Party to screw over the GOP.

/not saying Dems should be complacent
//it's entirely possible the GOP House will get TP'd as well

If the GOP takes the Senate it will be a disaster, the next two years will just be an endless cycle of pants-on-head-retarded bills getting pushed, vetoed, and failing the override.  No appointees will be able to be confirmed, and things will fall even more into gridlock.

If the Democrats can keep the Senate and somehow pull off a takeover of the house, we could have two solid years of freaking awesome progress unimpeded by the GOP.


And the Senate Democrats will filibuster ALMOST as much as the republicans have. The Republicans will scream about it, and take the nuclear option.

They will then lose the senate in 2016 and regret it.
 
2013-09-12 02:51:12 PM  

JerseyTim: What does Nate Silver say? The rest of just bullshiat.


Didn't he basically say "Screw you Guys, I'm going home" and head back to baseball math?
 
2013-09-12 02:53:52 PM  

Target Builder: JerseyTim: What does Nate Silver say? The rest of just bullshiat.

Didn't he basically say "Screw you Guys, I'm going home" and head back to baseball math?


I think he's essentially taking off odd years. Only paying attention on evens. So maybe in 2014 he'll be back. I know he's at least doing 2016.
 
2013-09-12 02:56:13 PM  

Satanic_Hamster: I'm wondering if there's a single millionaire/billionaire Republican out there stupid enough to give millions of Carl Rove again.


It might also be that the Big Money folks have started to notice that a good portion of the GOP is trying very hard to crash the economy in a way that might hurt their long term financial goals.
 
2013-09-12 03:01:08 PM  

Deneb81: TuteTibiImperes: obenchainr: urbangirl: spman: JerseyTim: What does Nate Silver say? The rest of just bullshiat.

Nate Silver has been MIA since transitioning over to ESPN / ABC. According to Cook Political Report http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings, the GOP is fairly strongly favored to win in Montana, West Virginia, and almost certainly will turn South Dakota. If they can take Arkansas and one other, and Alaska is probably their best chance, they will control the Senate.

This is assuming they don't lose other places like Kentucky, which is rapidly becoming a possibility.

Never underestimate the power of the Tea Party to screw over the GOP.

/not saying Dems should be complacent
//it's entirely possible the GOP House will get TP'd as well

If the GOP takes the Senate it will be a disaster, the next two years will just be an endless cycle of pants-on-head-retarded bills getting pushed, vetoed, and failing the override.  No appointees will be able to be confirmed, and things will fall even more into gridlock.

If the Democrats can keep the Senate and somehow pull off a takeover of the house, we could have two solid years of freaking awesome progress unimpeded by the GOP.

And the Senate Democrats will filibuster ALMOST as much as the republicans have. The Republicans will scream about it, and take the nuclear option.

They will then lose the senate in 2016 and regret it.


I very much doubt a Republican Senate in 2014 would clobber the filibuster, as they wouldn't gain anything by doing so.

A Republican Senate in 2016, if there's a Republican White House to go along with it (which is really not that farfetched, sadly), would see the filibuster gone as the first order of business on day 1. I think the GOP would gladly take two years of a full-bore conservative legislative agenda even if there was a 100% chance it would cost them the Senate in 2018.
 
2013-09-12 03:04:36 PM  

TuteTibiImperes: If the Democrats can keep the Senate and somehow pull off a takeover of the house, we could have two solid years of freaking awesome progress unimpeded by the GOP.


The Dems need 60 Senate seats for that.  Or they need to re-institute the actual filibuster.
 
2013-09-12 03:07:03 PM  

Mercutio74: TuteTibiImperes: If the Democrats can keep the Senate and somehow pull off a takeover of the house, we could have two solid years of freaking awesome progress unimpeded by the GOP.

The Dems need 60 Senate seats for that.  Or they need to re-institute the actual filibuster.


I think the only reason Reid hasn't used the nuclear option is because it's not worth it while the GOP still controls the House.  Sure, he could use it for appointments, but he knows it will cause major backlash in the House and keep them from approving anything under any terms.  With control over the Presidency, Senate, and House, there's no reason not to go for it.  At that point the GOP can biatch and moan all they like, they won't be able to do anything about it.
 
2013-09-12 03:19:17 PM  

HotWingConspiracy: Satanic_Hamster: I'm wondering if there's a single millionaire/billionaire Republican out there stupid enough to give millions of Carl Rove again.

(and I'm betting yes)
(how hasn't that guy not been killed as a warning to others)

They will donate again, but demand that he do the MC Rove dance on command.


Rove is the stalking horse, the guy everyone loves to hate, but I'd bet you never heard of the second biggest player in last november's election, a conservative PAC that spent a qurter of a BILLION dollars on the elections but whose donors beyond the infamous Koch brothers are a closely guarded secret
 
2013-09-12 03:29:03 PM  

FlashHarry: The Republican's chances of retaking the Senate this fall are in serious jeopardy as the GOP money machine is grinding to a halt as donations dry up.

and who is this shadowy republican who is attempting to take over the entire senate?


Kevin Spacey
 
2013-09-12 03:36:09 PM  

JerseyTim: What does Nate Silver say? The rest of just bullshiat.


Apparently Nate says "I sold my soul to ESPN":

by Nate Silver@1100 (today)

This is an interim navigation page for past, future and present versions of the website  FiveThirtyEight.com

FiveThirtyEight will be relaunched at this address in the impending months in partnership with ESPN.
 The new version of FiveThirtyEight will continue to provide data-driven coverage of politics and elections, while expanding its reach into other topics including sports, economics, technology and culture. More information about FiveThirtyEight's future plans with ESPN can be found...
 
2013-09-12 03:43:28 PM  

Fuggin Bizzy: HotWingConspiracy: McRove

New McDonald's menu item?


I wondered what happened to Ham Rove
 
2013-09-12 03:47:09 PM  

TuteTibiImperes: and things will fall even more into gridlock.


I'm not sure that's even possible.
 
2013-09-12 04:16:56 PM  

oldweasel: JerseyTim: What does Nate Silver say? The rest of just bullshiat.

Apparently Nate says "I sold my soul to ESPN":

by Nate Silver@1100 (today)

This is an interim navigation page for past, future and present versions of the website  FiveThirtyEight.com

FiveThirtyEight will be relaunched at this address in the impending months in partnership with ESPN. The new version of FiveThirtyEight will continue to provide data-driven coverage of politics and elections, while expanding its reach into other topics including sports, economics, technology and culture. More information about FiveThirtyEight's future plans with ESPN can be found...


People forget Nate was a baseball stats guy long before he got into politics.
 
2013-09-12 06:00:46 PM  
Even if the GOP were to retake the Senate, there's only so much they can do with Obama wielding the veto pen. This is the only reason they are holding back. If Romney had won, in 2014 the United States would be seeing exactly what North Carolina is seeing today.
 
2013-09-12 06:29:00 PM  
Are the donations really drying up, or are they just harder to trace before the election?
 
2013-09-12 07:13:39 PM  

Satanic_Hamster: I'm wondering if there's a single millionaire/billionaire Republican out there stupid enough to give millions of Carl Rove again.

(and I'm betting yes)
(how hasn't that guy not been killed as a warning to others)


None of the current Retardlicans are stupid enough to give money to Rove these days, Danny, he shot himself in the ass last cycle too publicly. Wait until the 2016 cycle for some of them to leave their 1.246 brain cells at home long enough to write those checks.
 
2013-09-12 09:56:49 PM  
The Republicans have no chance of taking the Senate this fall because the election's next year...

It's as simple as that...
 
2013-09-12 10:03:11 PM  

Deneb81: TuteTibiImperes: obenchainr: urbangirl: spman: JerseyTim: What does Nate Silver say? The rest of just bullshiat.

Nate Silver has been MIA since transitioning over to ESPN / ABC. According to Cook Political Report http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings, the GOP is fairly strongly favored to win in Montana, West Virginia, and almost certainly will turn South Dakota. If they can take Arkansas and one other, and Alaska is probably their best chance, they will control the Senate.

This is assuming they don't lose other places like Kentucky, which is rapidly becoming a possibility.

Never underestimate the power of the Tea Party to screw over the GOP.

/not saying Dems should be complacent
//it's entirely possible the GOP House will get TP'd as well

If the GOP takes the Senate it will be a disaster, the next two years will just be an endless cycle of pants-on-head-retarded bills getting pushed, vetoed, and failing the override.  No appointees will be able to be confirmed, and things will fall even more into gridlock.

If the Democrats can keep the Senate and somehow pull off a takeover of the house, we could have two solid years of freaking awesome progress unimpeded by the GOP.

And the Senate Democrats will filibuster ALMOST as much as the republicans have. The Republicans will scream about it, and take the nuclear option.

They will then lose the senate in 2016 and regret it.


Why would they do that?

Obama would veto the shiat out of everything they try to pass, they wouldn't have the votes to override, and they would still lose the Senate in 2016.
 
2013-09-12 10:28:25 PM  

Gosling: DamnYankees: Even if they don't retake the Senate, best case for Dems is holding, like, 51 seats. Hardly a great thing.

Wasn't the best case for the Dems "lose the Senate" in 2012? The past two cycles, the GOP has taken seats they by all rights should have won and just handed them over to the Dems because they put up candidates who were completely, totally unacceptable. They had Harry Reid dead to rights and then they put up Sharron Angle. They had Chris Coons dead to rights and then they put up Christine O'Donnell instead of Michael Castle. They had Claire McCaskill dead to rights and then Todd Akin happened. It's clearly primed to happen again this cycle no matter what the map tells you at first glance. The big question is where is it going to happen and what races are they going to flush down the toilet.


Let's not forget my proud window-licking state.

Richard Lugar is #2 on the list of favorite Hoosiers (Peyton Manning is #1) in the state, and he was knocked out by Mr RapeIsAGift. Senator Donnelly is a blue dog, and he stands a good chance of holding that seat because Indiana loves their Diet Republicans.
 
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