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(Buzzfeed)   Isaac Asimov's 1964 predictions about 2014 are frighteningly accurate, a little bit depressing   (buzzfeed.com) divider line 110
    More: Scary, Isaac Asimov, predictions  
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10389 clicks; posted to Geek » on 29 Aug 2013 at 4:08 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



110 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2013-08-29 02:58:12 PM  
Their blurb at the end states that he didn't get the "giant city from Boston to Washington" correct. He's not super far off compared to the west coast. There's large swaths of urbanized land, where you can't even tell you've left one city or town for another, aside from a sign denoting the border.
 
2013-08-29 02:58:13 PM  
OK,  those are eerie.
 
2013-08-29 03:00:48 PM  
"Complete lunches and dinners, with the food semiprepared, will be stored in the freezer until ready for processing."

This barely counts as a prediction in 1964, considering that this was already available in the 1950s:

farm1.staticflickr.com
 
2013-08-29 03:08:10 PM  
Drip coffee makers were invented in 1954, so no real predicting there.

upload.wikimedia.org
 
2013-08-29 03:08:49 PM  
"There will be increasing emphasis on transportation that makes the least possible contact with the surface"

This also barely counts as a prediction, Hermann Kemper received the patent for magnetic levitation of trains in 1934 (DE643316).

www.krri.re.kr

"For short-range travel, moving sidewalks (with benches on either side, standing room in the center) will be making their appearance in downtown sections."

upload.wikimedia.org
US Patent 25076 described the first escalators in 1859.

Similarly, a patent application for a moving sidewalk was published in 1962 (and issued in 1964).

patentimages.storage.googleapis.com
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2013-08-29 03:09:40 PM  

somedude210: Their blurb at the end states that he didn't get the "giant city from Boston to Washington" correct. He's not super far off compared to the west coast. There's large swaths of urbanized land, where you can't even tell you've left one city or town for another, aside from a sign denoting the border.


That was about as prescient as the TV dinner prediction.
 
2013-08-29 03:13:36 PM  

RexTalionis: "There will be increasing emphasis on transportation that makes the least possible contact with the surface"

This also barely counts as a prediction, Hermann Kemper received the patent for magnetic levitation of trains in 1934 (DE643316).

[www.krri.re.kr image 259x337]

"For short-range travel, moving sidewalks (with benches on either side, standing room in the center) will be making their appearance in downtown sections."

[upload.wikimedia.org image 662x930]
US Patent 25076 described the first escalators in 1859.

Similarly, a patent application for a moving sidewalk was published in 1962 (and issued in 1964).

[patentimages.storage.googleapis.com image 556x814]


Also air travel was just becoming cheap enough for upper middle class families, the majority of that trip is off the ground. So as you say not a prediction.
 
2013-08-29 03:15:47 PM  
"Synchronous satellites, hovering in space will make it possible for you to direct-dial any spot on earth"

upload.wikimedia.org
Telstar 1, which was the first to carry satellite telephone communications, launched in 1962.

"Communications will become sight-sound and you will see as well as hear the person you telephone."

The German Reichspost operated a videophone service in 1936.

media.economist.com
 
2013-08-29 03:20:09 PM  
"The world of A.D. 2014 will have few routine jobs that cannot be done better by some machine than by any human being. Mankind will therefore have become largely a race of machine tenders."

That was part of the plot of Fritz Lang's Metropolis (1927), isn't it?

media.coveringmedia.com

"In fact, one popular exhibit at the 2014 World's Fair will be such a 3-D TV, built life-size, in which ballet performances will be seen.

upload.wikimedia.org
 
2013-08-29 03:20:42 PM  
TFA: "The appliances of 2014 will have no electric cords, of course"The real quote:
"The appliances of 2014 will have no electric cords, of course, for they will be powered by long- lived batteries running on radioisotopes."

Sorry, I don't see any appliances in my home running on radioactive batteries.
 
2013-08-29 03:22:41 PM  
1953 - More than one million air conditioners are sold in the U.S.

img.timeinc.net
 
2013-08-29 03:27:52 PM  
"By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works and in the 2014 Futurama will show a model of an elaborate Martian colony"

Ok, which one of you guys wrote this?
 
2013-08-29 03:30:27 PM  

NutWrench: "By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works and in the 2014 Futurama will show a model of an elaborate Martian colony"

Ok, which one of you guys wrote this?


www.westland.net

Futurama was an exhibit at the 1939 World's Fair in New York.
 
2013-08-29 03:32:45 PM  

NutWrench: "By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works and in the 2014 Futurama will show a model of an elaborate Martian colony"

Ok, which one of you guys wrote this?


That's another failed prediction.  There will not be any 2014 Futurama.  :-(
 
2013-08-29 03:37:53 PM  
Ok smarty pansies, lets see some predictions for 2062.
 
2013-08-29 03:41:03 PM  

Deep Contact: Ok smarty pansies, lets see some predictions for 2062.


Automobiles will no longer require fossil fuels.
 
2013-08-29 03:43:06 PM  

Deep Contact: Ok smarty pansies, lets see some predictions for 2062.


A mathematical proof for the P=NP or P!=NP problem will have been found.
 
2013-08-29 03:54:52 PM  

Tom_Slick: Deep Contact: Ok smarty pansies, lets see some predictions for 2062.

Automobiles will no longer require fossil fuels.


most autos will still use abundant gasoline, but in cleaner burning engines
 
2013-08-29 03:57:59 PM  

Deep Contact: Ok smarty pansies, lets see some predictions for 2062.


By the way, my prediction is a way longshot. However, I'd be willing to put a friendly wager of 1000 bucks in an escrow account for 2062 if you're willing to do the same.
 
2013-08-29 04:00:27 PM  

RexTalionis: Deep Contact: Ok smarty pansies, lets see some predictions for 2062.

A mathematical proof for the P=NP or P!=NP problem will have been found.


Nope.
 
2013-08-29 04:01:21 PM  

RexTalionis: Deep Contact: Ok smarty pansies, lets see some predictions for 2062.

By the way, my prediction is a way longshot. However, I'd be willing to put a friendly wager of 1000 bucks in an escrow account for 2062 if you're willing to do the same.


That's a little steep for me now, but I'll get back to you...
 
2013-08-29 04:07:10 PM  
Currently reading lots of Asimov short stories and there are things he got way wrong. Like a university getting a robot to proof read manuscripts. A seven foot tall robot that would pick up a manuscript and flick through the pages one by one spotting spelling and grammar mistakes. The thought that computers would be on every desk and you'd type your book directly into it and it would spellcheck on the fly wasn't thought of. Another story has a robot detective who has to search the records, all paper files in filing cabinets. It's like reading of a civilisation that built Concord and landed on the moon before inventing the wheel.
 
2013-08-29 04:09:39 PM  

RexTalionis: Deep Contact: Ok smarty pansies, lets see some predictions for 2062.

By the way, my prediction is a way longshot. However, I'd be willing to put a friendly wager of 1000 bucks in an escrow account for 2062 if you're willing to do the same.


What I would REALLY like, is to REQUIRE all the doom and gloom, or sunshine and flower predictors to put their money where their mouths are.

You predict that there will be a MASSIVE SPECIES extinction in the next 50 years?
No problem, 10% of your wealth goes into escrow and you are required to use "actual" numbers rather than vague adjectives. MASSIVE? so 5% extinct? LOL

Same for the tools who keep predicting market crashes and gold price soaring etc etc etc.
If they lose, the money just goes to the pay down the federal debt.

/wait, they all shut up and no longer predict anything?
/Julian Simon was GOD and Paul Ehrlich is a worthless tool.
 
2013-08-29 04:13:47 PM  

Flint Ironstag: way wrong. Like a university getting a robot to proof read manuscripts. A seven foot tall robot that would pick up a manuscript and flick through the pages one by one spotting spelling and grammar mistakes.


You've never dealt with a thesis format lady, have you?
 
2013-08-29 04:15:44 PM  
"By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works and in the 2014 Futurama will show a model of an elaborate Martian colony"

brightfutura.com
 
2013-08-29 04:20:48 PM  

show me: RexTalionis: Deep Contact: Ok smarty pansies, lets see some predictions for 2062.

A mathematical proof for the P=NP or P!=NP problem will have been found.

Nope.


Yep.
 
2013-08-29 04:21:09 PM  

RexTalionis: "Complete lunches and dinners, with the food semiprepared, will be stored in the freezer until ready for processing."

This barely counts as a prediction in 1964, considering that this was already available in the 1950s:

[370x485 from http://farm1.staticflickr.com/83/234998824_04501b2a03.jpg image 370x485]


Tom_Slick: Drip coffee makers were invented in 1954, so no real predicting there.

[706x599 from http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a6/Wigomat-100.j pg/706px-Wigomat-100.jpg image 706x599]


As usual, BuzzFeed has published a listicle with so much fail that it must have been created by a retarded bonobo. Jesus Christ, if there's ONE website I hate is farking BuzzFeed. At least Cracked writes actual articles.

All BuzzFeed ever does is pair short factually wrong sentences with funny gifs found on the net, then write an idiotic hyperbolic headline. HUR DUR, ARTICLES!!
 
2013-08-29 04:26:20 PM  

dj_spanmaster: show me: RexTalionis: Deep Contact: Ok smarty pansies, lets see some predictions for 2062.

A mathematical proof for the P=NP or P!=NP problem will have been found.

Nope.

Yep.


Maybe.
 
2013-08-29 04:26:49 PM  
You've all convinced me. Isaac Asimov was a FRAUD!
 
2013-08-29 04:27:10 PM  
 
2013-08-29 04:29:45 PM  
Those predictions sucked. Death to Issac Asimov! And Double Death to Buzzfeed
 
2013-08-29 04:30:16 PM  
K-cup coffee is five times more expensive and creates ten times more waste than conventional brewing methods. Progress!
 
2013-08-29 04:32:20 PM  

PhilGed: "By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works and in the 2014 Futurama will show a model of an elaborate Martian colony"

[brightfutura.com image 269x192]


Leaving satisfied.
 
2013-08-29 04:34:53 PM  

RexTalionis: "The world of A.D. 2014 will have few routine jobs that cannot be done better by some machine than by any human being. Mankind will therefore have become largely a race of machine tenders."

That was part of the plot of Fritz Lang's Metropolis (1927), isn't it?

[media.coveringmedia.com image 584x450]


Moloch!
 
2013-08-29 04:36:30 PM  
Oh good. A list. In great big text. With stolen pictures.
 
2013-08-29 04:43:20 PM  

PhilGed: "By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works and in the 2014 Futurama will show a model of an elaborate Martian colony"

[brightfutura.com image 269x192]


I was gonna say these were all coincidences and then he specifically referenced a cartoon that wouldn't exist for 40 years. That man is a psychic!
 
2013-08-29 04:44:03 PM  

RexTalionis: "The world of A.D. 2014 will have few routine jobs that cannot be done better by some machine than by any human being. Mankind will therefore have become largely a race of machine tenders."

That was part of the plot of Fritz Lang's Metropolis (1927), isn't it?



"In fact, one popular exhibit at the 2014 World's Fair will be such a 3-D TV, built life-size, in which ballet performances will be seen.


What astonishes me watching "How It's Made" is the amount of human tooling required to make things I assumed were made by robots.
 
2013-08-29 04:47:37 PM  

PhilGed: "By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works and in the 2014 Futurama will show a model of an elaborate Martian colony"

[brightfutura.com image 269x192]


Seriously, as much as I hated clicking on a stupid ass buzzfeed link, I decided to. But then closed it as soon as I saw Futurama mentioned. He may have seriously said that. But I doubt it. Highly doubt it.
 
2013-08-29 04:51:09 PM  

Deep Contact: Ok smarty pansies, lets see some predictions for 2062 2064.


Civilization is a shell of its former self, having mostly destroyed itself in a series of wars.  The fossil fuels ran out, and the superpowers fought over what was left.  Computers aren't owned by most people anymore, because they're way too expensive to run with the energy sources that remain.  Grandparents tell their children about the roaring flame of the "oil age"
 
2013-08-29 04:51:21 PM  

dj_spanmaster: show me: RexTalionis: Deep Contact: Ok smarty pansies, lets see some predictions for 2062.

A mathematical proof for the P=NP or P!=NP problem will have been found.

Nope.

Yep.


images2.wikia.nocookie.net
YUP
 
2013-08-29 04:53:27 PM  

sure haven't: PhilGed: "By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works and in the 2014 Futurama will show a model of an elaborate Martian colony"

[brightfutura.com image 269x192]

Seriously, as much as I hated clicking on a stupid ass buzzfeed link, I decided to. But then closed it as soon as I saw Futurama mentioned. He may have seriously said that. But I doubt it. Highly doubt it.


He did say that. However, "Futurama" was an exhibit of life in the future from the 1939 World's Fair in New York City (and subsequent World's Fairs). The article that he was specifically being asked for the article was to make predictions of what would be shown at the 1913 World's Fair (and its corresponding Futurama).

davidszondy.com
heckeranddecker.files.wordpress.com
 
2013-08-29 04:54:27 PM  

sure haven't: PhilGed: "By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works and in the 2014 Futurama will show a model of an elaborate Martian colony"

[brightfutura.com image 269x192]

Seriously, as much as I hated clicking on a stupid ass buzzfeed link, I decided to. But then closed it as soon as I saw Futurama mentioned. He may have seriously said that. But I doubt it. Highly doubt it.


Go read what RexTalionis wrote above you:


RexTalionis: NutWrench: "By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works and in the 2014 Futurama will show a model of an elaborate Martian colony"

Ok, which one of you guys wrote this?

[www.westland.net image 506x408]

Futurama was an exhibit at the 1939 World's Fair in New York.

 
2013-08-29 04:55:24 PM  
"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'"
 
2013-08-29 04:55:49 PM  

RexTalionis: sure haven't: PhilGed: "By 2014, only unmanned ships will have landed on Mars, though a manned expedition will be in the works and in the 2014 Futurama will show a model of an elaborate Martian colony"

[brightfutura.com image 269x192]

Seriously, as much as I hated clicking on a stupid ass buzzfeed link, I decided to. But then closed it as soon as I saw Futurama mentioned. He may have seriously said that. But I doubt it. Highly doubt it.

He did say that. However, "Futurama" was an exhibit of life in the future from the 1939 World's Fair in New York City (and subsequent World's Fairs). The article that he was specifically being asked for the article was to make predictions of what would be shown at the 1913 World's Fair (and its corresponding Futurama).

[davidszondy.com image 363x315]
[heckeranddecker.files.wordpress.com image 400x288]


Ach, you beat me by one minute!
 
2013-08-29 04:58:12 PM  

Deep Contact: Ok smarty pansies, lets see some predictions for 2062.


I will be dead.
 
2013-08-29 04:59:32 PM  
CTRL-F twerking.

*phrase not found*

Fail.
 
2013-08-29 05:06:30 PM  
I don't see any of that bad

I don't know why people are against evolution
 
2013-08-29 05:11:48 PM  

Flint Ironstag: Currently reading lots of Asimov short stories and there are things he got way wrong. Like a university getting a robot to proof read manuscripts. [...]

The thought that computers would be on every desk and you'd type your book directly into it and it would spellcheck on the fly wasn't thought of.

In fact, part of Asimov's essay is the acknowledgement that robots won't be that commonplace, and that computers will be important.  By 1964 he'd realized how he'd missed the boat with his early robot stories.

"Robots will neither be common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence. The I.B.M. exhibit at the present fair has no robots but it is dedicated to computers, which are shown in all their amazing complexity, notably in the task of translating Russian into English. If machines are that smart today, what may not be in the works 50 years hence? It will be such computers, much miniaturized, that will serve as the "brains" of robots."
 
2013-08-29 05:13:12 PM  
"Even so, mankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom"And that's why I clicked on a Buzzfeed link
 
2013-08-29 05:14:33 PM  

Myria: Deep Contact: Ok smarty pansies, lets see some predictions for 2062 2064.

Civilization is a shell of its former self, having mostly destroyed itself in a series of wars.  The fossil fuels ran out, and the superpowers fought over what was left.  Computers aren't owned by most people anymore, because they're way too expensive to run with the energy sources that remain.  Grandparents tell their children about the roaring flame of the "oil age"



 Gone now, swept away. For reasons long forgotten, two mighty warrior tribes went to war and touched off a blaze which engulfed them all. Without fuel, they were nothing. They built a house of straw. The thundering machines sputtered and stopped. Their leaders talked and talked and talked. But nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled. The cities exploded. A whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear. Men began to feed on men.

On the roads it was a white-line nightmare. Only those mobile enough to scavenge, brutal enough to pillage would survive. The gangs took over the highways, ready to wage war for a tank of juice. And in this maelstrom of decay, ordinary men were battered and smashed. Men like Max. The warrior Max. In the roar of an engine, he lost everything. And became a shell of a man, a burnt out, desolate man, a man haunted by the demons of his past, a man who wandered out into the wasteland. And it was here, in this blighted place, that he learned to live again...
 
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