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(ESPN)   For your fantasy football team, here are the players that Matthew Berry loves, and the players that he hates going into the draft. And a little love for some radio host nobody's ever heard of   (espn.go.com) divider line 54
    More: Unlikely, Darren McFadden, Stephen Gostkowski, Julio Jones, Darren Sproles, Delanie Walker, Ryan Tannehill, wide receiver, first team  
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1129 clicks; posted to Sports » on 09 Aug 2013 at 4:37 PM (47 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-08-09 03:33:51 PM
You know why Chris Johnson will have an awesome year?  Because I won't draft him.
 
2013-08-09 03:36:12 PM
Must have been hard for him to leave out his love for Vick.
 
2013-08-09 03:44:53 PM
It's hard to be a Washington fan this year. For once we have a QB and RB worthy of high picks, and a WR1 who shouldn't be too shabby himself if he stays on the field. But I can't take any of them without feeling like a total homer. Good thing I get to take Cam Newton as my keeper in round 14 and don't have to make at least that decision.
 
2013-08-09 03:53:54 PM
Wow, as a huge Howard fan, that was really cool. The way Berry describes him is exactly how I thought he'd be.

/22 year fanboi
 
2013-08-09 04:08:11 PM
*minor thread jack*

Fark Fapper League has an opening, as one of the members had to drop, if anyone is still looking to join a Fark league. It's on ESPN with a draft on the 1st at 4:00 PM Eastern. Settings are standard with 12 teams. Message board there tends to get NSFW during the season, just a heads up.

*end minor thread jack*
 
2013-08-09 04:27:15 PM

muck4doo: *minor thread jack*

Fark Fapper League has an opening, as one of the members had to drop, if anyone is still looking to join a Fark league. It's on ESPN with a draft on the 1st at 4:00 PM Eastern. Settings are standard with 12 teams. Message board there tends to get NSFW during the season, just a heads up.

*end minor thread jack*


Wait a fark league that people pay attention to?  I will join
 
2013-08-09 04:29:39 PM

SnakeLee: muck4doo: *minor thread jack*

Fark Fapper League has an opening, as one of the members had to drop, if anyone is still looking to join a Fark league. It's on ESPN with a draft on the 1st at 4:00 PM Eastern. Settings are standard with 12 teams. Message board there tends to get NSFW during the season, just a heads up.

*end minor thread jack*

Wait a fark league that people pay attention to?  I will join


Sending you an invite at your EIP.
 
2013-08-09 04:50:48 PM
If Matthew Berry doesn't post in this thread I'm going to be really upset.
 
2013-08-09 04:56:45 PM
Make no mistake, I think Calvin Johnson is going to have a crazy monster year. Love the entire Lions offense this year, think it was a fluke how much he was tackled inside the 5 and the 1 last year, I'm on board. But it's all about roster construction. You want a running back in the first round of a 10-team league, and Calvin Johnson is not a running back. That simple.

See, that's where I disagree vehemently.  You do NOT have to take a running back in the first round under all circumstances.  You should take into account projected stats (using whatever projection system you opt for and adjusting for things like injury risk and playing time threats as necessary), figure out the replacement level in your league (i.e., in a 10-team league that requires three RBs and four WRs, how many points are the 30th best RB and the 40th best WR projected to score?), and draft accordingly.  This will skew the field heavily in favor of running backs.  But if a WR like Megatron happens to be ranked as high as (say) eighth after seven RBs, you're picking tenth and all seven of your top RBs (and two others) are off the board, then by all means draft Megatron.  And remember: even if this results in slim pickings at the RB position around the fourth through sixth rounds, it's overwhelmingly likely that some players you haven't even heard of will be solid waiver wire pickups in the near future.
 
2013-08-09 04:59:26 PM
And when I say "draft accordingly," I mean rank players by subtracting their projected point total from the replacement level figure you've calculated.
 
2013-08-09 05:00:04 PM

Super Chronic: And when I say "draft accordingly," I mean rank players by subtracting their projected point total from the replacement level figure you've calculated.


I mean, the other way around.  Subtract replacement level from point total.  Dammit.  More coffee.
 
2013-08-09 05:05:44 PM
The best strategy for winning is to play with friends/idiots
 
2013-08-09 05:06:35 PM

Super Chronic: Make no mistake, I think Calvin Johnson is going to have a crazy monster year. Love the entire Lions offense this year, think it was a fluke how much he was tackled inside the 5 and the 1 last year, I'm on board. But it's all about roster construction. You want a running back in the first round of a 10-team league, and Calvin Johnson is not a running back. That simple.

See, that's where I disagree vehemently.  You do NOT have to take a running back in the first round under all circumstances.  You should take into account projected stats (using whatever projection system you opt for and adjusting for things like injury risk and playing time threats as necessary), figure out the replacement level in your league (i.e., in a 10-team league that requires three RBs and four WRs, how many points are the 30th best RB and the 40th best WR projected to score?), and draft accordingly.  This will skew the field heavily in favor of running backs.  But if a WR like Megatron happens to be ranked as high as (say) eighth after seven RBs, you're picking tenth and all seven of your top RBs (and two others) are off the board, then by all means draft Megatron.  And remember: even if this results in slim pickings at the RB position around the fourth through sixth rounds, it's overwhelmingly likely that some players you haven't even heard of will be solid waiver wire pickups in the near future.


Well, it's not necessarily the difference between Megatron and the replacement - it's a question of how much better Megatron is than, say, a 3rd round WR vs the difference between the RB in question and a 3rd round RB. If you can still get a decent RB in round 3, then sure, grab Megatron.
 
2013-08-09 05:08:47 PM

Super Chronic: Make no mistake, I think Calvin Johnson is going to have a crazy monster year. Love the entire Lions offense this year, think it was a fluke how much he was tackled inside the 5 and the 1 last year, I'm on board. But it's all about roster construction. You want a running back in the first round of a 10-team league, and Calvin Johnson is not a running back. That simple.

See, that's where I disagree vehemently.  You do NOT have to take a running back in the first round under all circumstances.  You should take into account projected stats (using whatever projection system you opt for and adjusting for things like injury risk and playing time threats as necessary), figure out the replacement level in your league (i.e., in a 10-team league that requires three RBs and four WRs, how many points are the 30th best RB and the 40th best WR projected to score?), and draft accordingly.  This will skew the field heavily in favor of running backs.  But if a WR like Megatron happens to be ranked as high as (say) eighth after seven RBs, you're picking tenth and all seven of your top RBs (and two others) are off the board, then by all means draft Megatron.  And remember: even if this results in slim pickings at the RB position around the fourth through sixth rounds, it's overwhelmingly likely that some players you haven't even heard of will be solid waiver wire pickups in the near future.


It's hard to come up with hard and fast rules.  I'm a fan of waiting a long time on QBs.  If I get the 8th or 9th best QB, so be it.  I'd rather use my early picks on skill positions.  But if everyone follows my strategy, then at some point, nabbing Aaron Rodgers becomes a must.

I'm with you that if I'm picking 10th and Megatron's there, I'm taking him.
 
2013-08-09 05:10:28 PM

Super Chronic: Super Chronic: And when I say "draft accordingly," I mean rank players by subtracting their projected point total from the replacement level figure you've calculated.

I mean, the other way around.  Subtract replacement level from point total.  Dammit.  More coffee.


Go home Super Chronic, you're drunk
 
2013-08-09 05:19:18 PM

muck4doo: SnakeLee: muck4doo: *minor thread jack*

Fark Fapper League has an opening, as one of the members had to drop, if anyone is still looking to join a Fark league. It's on ESPN with a draft on the 1st at 4:00 PM Eastern. Settings are standard with 12 teams. Message board there tends to get NSFW during the season, just a heads up.

*end minor thread jack*

Wait a fark league that people pay attention to?  I will join

Sending you an invite at your EIP.


If someone else drops out count me in.  I run my own league and would like to be in another.
Thanks
 
2013-08-09 05:19:27 PM
CJ Spiller is getting so much run that his ACL is calling up insurance agents for quotes. That just smells like trouble.
 
2013-08-09 05:23:12 PM
Crap.  Was hoping for a big year from Stephen Jackson.  But since Berry's predicted it, it's surely not going to happen.
 
2013-08-09 05:24:55 PM

maxwellhauser: Stephen Jackson


Stephen Jackson is a basketball player. Steven Jackson is a football player.
 
2013-08-09 05:24:59 PM

JohnnyRebel88: muck4doo: SnakeLee: muck4doo: *minor thread jack*

Fark Fapper League has an opening, as one of the members had to drop, if anyone is still looking to join a Fark league. It's on ESPN with a draft on the 1st at 4:00 PM Eastern. Settings are standard with 12 teams. Message board there tends to get NSFW during the season, just a heads up.

*end minor thread jack*

Wait a fark league that people pay attention to?  I will join

Sending you an invite at your EIP.

If someone else drops out count me in.  I run my own league and would like to be in another.
Thanks


Will do.
 
2013-08-09 05:26:07 PM

maxwellhauser: Crap.  Was hoping for a big year from Stephen Jackson.  But since Berry's predicted it, it's surely not going to happen.


Feel the same way about Marcell Reese.
 
2013-08-09 05:27:07 PM
Im changing a few things up in league scoring wise:

Will going from25 passing yards = 1pt, to 20yrds hurt anything?
Also it's a small league so I wanted to make the teams deeper so I added an extra TE, and a flex Te/WR/RB, as well as a Def Player.

What stats should I award pts for on my Def guy? Right now I have sacks, ints and solo tackles.
 
2013-08-09 05:35:48 PM

Dafatone: It's hard to come up with hard and fast rules. I'm a fan of waiting a long time on QBs. If I get the 8th or 9th best QB, so be it. I'd rather use my early picks on skill positions. But if everyone follows my strategy, then at some point, nabbing Aaron Rodgers becomes a must.


In the last 4 years, Matt Schaub (2009), Michael Vick (2010), RG3 (last year) were the best scoring QB that year, but none of them were drafted before the 8th round.  Waiting on QBs just makes sense
 
2013-08-09 05:42:50 PM
Personal League. 12Th Pick (Out Of 12). Doug Martin Is My Keeper. Thinking Of Going RB/QB Unless Megatron Is Available. It's Ppr. Is This Dumb Strategy?
 
2013-08-09 05:47:19 PM
i was mildly surprised about Jimmy Graham.  but otherwise the list wasnt that surprising, assuming the Berry coefficient.  ive done some mock drafts to see whos generally ranked where and at the 4th or 5th spot im still getting Ray Rice as available.  AP and Foster always go 1 and 2 then two players from 5-8.  does somebody know something i dont?  i know they lost some defense with retirements but is their o-line worse or something?
 
2013-08-09 05:49:22 PM

Super Chronic: And when I say "draft accordingly," I mean rank players by subtracting their projected point total from the replacement level figure you've calculated.


I agree with you, but don't overthink this.  1300 yards and 10 TDs is 1300 yards and 10 TDs.  If you grab Calvin Johnson in the first round of a 10 team league, make sure you grab RBs in the second and third rounds.
 
2013-08-09 06:03:59 PM

LucklessWonder: Personal League. 12Th Pick (Out Of 12). Doug Martin Is My Keeper. Thinking Of Going RB/QB Unless Megatron Is Available. It's Ppr. Is This Dumb Strategy?


No way... in a ppr league that would be amazing!  I can't believe he would ever be there at 12, especially with keepers.
 
2013-08-09 06:08:34 PM

Brokenseas: Super Chronic: And when I say "draft accordingly," I mean rank players by subtracting their projected point total from the replacement level figure you've calculated.

I agree with you, but don't overthink this.  1300 yards and 10 TDs is 1300 yards and 10 TDs.  If you grab Calvin Johnson in the first round of a 10 team league, make sure you grab RBs in the second and third rounds.


Well, yeah, I admit I don't always have the courage of my convictions here.  But once, about ten years ago, I actually followed this all the way through.  My memory's a bit hazy, but I drafted 12th or so in a 14-team league, and I took Randy Moss.  Coming back with the ~16th pick, I took the #2 WR (and I can't remember if it was Torry Holt or Marvin Harrison or maybe Terrell Owens).  Lots of people saying "whoa" in the online draft room.  I managed to snag the criminally undervalued Stephen Davis in the third and had some decent-enough RBs like Charlie Garner in the next couple of rounds (Davis and Garner always seemed to be on my team, year in and year out), and I think I found another on the waiver wire.  I took second place that season.  And yes, I was lucky that it worked out, but don't you always have to be?

A little quirk: that league had a rule where a player scored zero points for fewer than 50 receiving or rushing yards in a game (or 200 passing yards).  That slightly increased the value of good receivers, because the guys who get 700 or 750 yards a season -- the ones you're hoping to grab in the fifteenth round in most leagues and maybe they give you a tiny boost at the WR4 spot -- were nearly worthless in this league, no better than your average fullback whose best hope for points is a vulture touchdown.  So it shrank the universe of valuable players and made the WR position look a little bit more like the RB position.  I'm not sure the other owners ever appreciated this distinction.
 
2013-08-09 06:09:49 PM

LucklessWonder: Personal League. 12Th Pick (Out Of 12). Doug Martin Is My Keeper. Thinking Of Going RB/QB Unless Megatron Is Available. It's Ppr. Is This Dumb Strategy?


i cant see how anyone would have Megatron and wouldn't keep him.
 
2013-08-09 06:14:06 PM
Matt I think you come here to read sometimes - and I like your analysis here. But good lord can you trim some of that at the top?
 
2013-08-09 06:15:59 PM

The Flexecutioner: LucklessWonder: Personal League. 12Th Pick (Out Of 12). Doug Martin Is My Keeper. Thinking Of Going RB/QB Unless Megatron Is Available. It's Ppr. Is This Dumb Strategy?

i cant see how anyone would have Megatron and wouldn't keep him.


Points For A Passing TD And You Can't Keep The Same Player Two Years Running.

I Doubt Megatron Falls, But You Never know.
 
2013-08-09 06:17:18 PM

Treygreen13: Matt I think you come here to read sometimes - and I like your analysis here. But good lord can you trim some of that at the top?


Yeah. The Nonsense Stuff Works Way Better On Podcast Than In Print.
 
2013-08-09 06:22:16 PM

LucklessWonder: Treygreen13: Matt I think you come here to read sometimes - and I like your analysis here. But good lord can you trim some of that at the top?

Yeah. The Nonsense Stuff Works Way Better On Podcast Than In Print.


I don't mind a little journey to get to the point but I feel like I needed a sherpa and iron rations.
 
2013-08-09 06:24:38 PM
I still love his piece on darren last year with the blind analysis.

/totes drafting Wilson in the 5th, surprised he didn't make the list
 
2013-08-09 06:34:15 PM

thecpt: I still love his piece on darren last year with the blind analysis.

/totes drafting Wilson in the 5th, surprised he didn't make the list


if wilson (assuming you mean Russell) is still available in the 5th, you are playing with idgits.
 
2013-08-09 06:39:05 PM

Go Fornicate Without a Partner: thecpt: I still love his piece on darren last year with the blind analysis.

/totes drafting Wilson in the 5th, surprised he didn't make the list

if wilson (assuming you mean Russell) is still available in the 5th, you are playing with idgits.


I assumed you meant David.
 
2013-08-09 06:48:41 PM

INeedAName: Im changing a few things up in league scoring wise:

Will going from25 passing yards = 1pt, to 20yrds hurt anything?
Also it's a small league so I wanted to make the teams deeper so I added an extra TE, and a flex Te/WR/RB, as well as a Def Player.

What stats should I award pts for on my Def guy? Right now I have sacks, ints and solo tackles.


The scoring for QB's will just make them more important in your draft. Don't do what I see too many do, and go nuts with the scoring settings like they have to click and adjust every single item. It's okay to do a few tweaks if you want to go PPR, IDP, among other things, but try to keep things simple as possible. Adding an extra TE in a small league won't hurt. If you have a 10 team league set the max they can take at 3, so as not to let people hog a bunch and keep others from being able to field a roster. You would be surprised how many 20 team leagues I see posted every year with stupid settings like must play 2 QB's(only 32 starting QB's at most, and less during bye weeks).

For your def guy those are good, but also add assisted tackles, forced fumbles, fumble recoveries, blocked kicks, TOUCHDOWNS, and passes defensed.

/Speaking of stupid settings, I made a joke league on ESPN a couple of weeks ago called "OVER 9000!!!" on a different account, then forgot about it. Couple of days ago I checked in on it and it was full and they had already drafted. My QB is projected to score over 18,000 points on the season, and my running backs and receivers in the 3,000's. Rosters are so huge and scoring is set to make no sense, but people joined it anyways. The challenge written in the league notes is to try to score over 9000 in a week.
 
2013-08-09 06:50:22 PM

LucklessWonder: Go Fornicate Without a Partner: thecpt: I still love his piece on darren last year with the blind analysis.

/totes drafting Wilson in the 5th, surprised he didn't make the list

if wilson (assuming you mean Russell) is still available in the 5th, you are playing with idgits.

I assumed you meant David.


I would assume David as well for the 5th round.
 
2013-08-09 06:54:53 PM

muck4doo: For your def guy those are good, but also add assisted tackles, forced fumbles, fumble recoveries, blocked kicks, TOUCHDOWNS, and passes defensed.


Forgot. If for any reason you can't do solo tackles AND assisted tackles, scrap both and select Total Tackles. Do Not do "total tackles" AND solo and assisted tackles all together. It'll throw the scoring so out of whack that a lot of defensemen will score as much as quarterbacks.
 
2013-08-09 07:04:33 PM
i love leagues with good defense rules.  im currently in one that has 4 IDP slots (plus the normal offensive) and some good scoring for them.  most of these guys can score more than all of the TEs (with the exception of the top 2 or 3 TEs) and most of your WR3/RB3 and fair portion of the WR2/RB2.  they get respect and some are routinely drafted earlier than 10th round.  I even kept 2 of my bench slots for IDPs.
 
2013-08-09 07:26:05 PM

LucklessWonder: Personal League. 12Th Pick (Out Of 12). Doug Martin Is My Keeper. Thinking Of Going RB/QB Unless Megatron Is Available. It's Ppr. Is This Dumb Strategy?


Megatron won't be available, someone will cave/panic and nab him. I think QB there is a good option; you know someone is going to spark a rush of QB's somewhere in the 3rd or 4th, and by the time it gets back around you might be looking at the likes of Big Ben or maybe Luck.

WR points are out there, especially in a PPR.
 
2013-08-09 07:29:41 PM

Super Chronic: Well, yeah, I admit I don't always have the courage of my convictions here.  But once, about ten years ago, I actually followed this all the way through.  My memory's a bit hazy, but I drafted 12th or so in a 14-team league, and I took Randy Moss.  Coming back with the ~16th pick, I took the #2 WR (and I can't remember if it was Torry Holt or Marvin Harrison or maybe Terrell Owens).  Lots of people saying "whoa" in the online draft room.  I managed to snag the criminally undervalued Stephen Davis in the third and had some decent-enough RBs like Charlie Garner in the next couple of rounds (Davis and Garner always seemed to be on my team, year in and year out), and I think I found another on the waiver wire.  I took second place that season.  And yes, I was lucky that it worked out, but don't you always have to be?


My brother-in-law does this a lot: load up on receivers early, is usually one of the first to take a stud TE, and goes for "You've never heard of this guy but he's going to be getting 15 carries a game for the Broncos or Pats this year" RB. It can be hit or miss for him, but when he hits he dominates the regular season.
 
2013-08-09 08:54:37 PM

jayhawk88: Super Chronic: Well, yeah, I admit I don't always have the courage of my convictions here.  But once, about ten years ago, I actually followed this all the way through.  My memory's a bit hazy, but I drafted 12th or so in a 14-team league, and I took Randy Moss.  Coming back with the ~16th pick, I took the #2 WR (and I can't remember if it was Torry Holt or Marvin Harrison or maybe Terrell Owens).  Lots of people saying "whoa" in the online draft room.  I managed to snag the criminally undervalued Stephen Davis in the third and had some decent-enough RBs like Charlie Garner in the next couple of rounds (Davis and Garner always seemed to be on my team, year in and year out), and I think I found another on the waiver wire.  I took second place that season.  And yes, I was lucky that it worked out, but don't you always have to be?

My brother-in-law does this a lot: load up on receivers early, is usually one of the first to take a stud TE, and goes for "You've never heard of this guy but he's going to be getting 15 carries a game for the Broncos or Pats this year" RB. It can be hit or miss for him, but when he hits he dominates the regular season.


I do that too.  It can work if you have time to follow injury reports and depth chart battles for waiver pick ups.  I don't see it as being particularly riskier than taking a stud RB.  The top RBs go high because they have a history of durability but 3 or 4 of the top ten go down every year.  Where I make mistakes is getting too high on young backs and wasting picks and roster spots on them a year too early.  Like David Wilson and Lamar Miller last year.  All fantasy strategies are hit or miss when you take into consideration you have about a 40 or 50% of a key injury torpedoing your team anyway.
 
2013-08-09 11:48:27 PM
Leagues are rarely won in the early rounds, but often lost.  Make of that what you will.
 
2013-08-09 11:53:59 PM
I'm late to this thread, but let me ask you ff experts this...I'm in a sixteen team, two keeper league and I've got to choose between Stevan Ridley, RG3, Jimmy Graham, Randall Cobb, and Julio Jones. Who would you keep?

/qbs get 6 pts for a td, but other than that, standard scoring (not a ppr league) and a flex player.
//Matthew Berry..talk to me, bro
 
2013-08-10 12:36:48 AM

Mark Ratner: I'm late to this thread, but let me ask you ff experts this...I'm in a sixteen team, two keeper league and I've got to choose between Stevan Ridley, RG3, Jimmy Graham, Randall Cobb, and Julio Jones. Who would you keep?

/qbs get 6 pts for a td, but other than that, standard scoring (not a ppr league) and a flex player.
//Matthew Berry..talk to me, bro


Depends on number of receivers in line up. I'd go Julio or graham. Ridley is great but damn, he's going to get hurt
 
2013-08-10 12:52:12 AM

thecpt: Mark Ratner: I'm late to this thread, but let me ask you ff experts this...I'm in a sixteen team, two keeper league and I've got to choose between Stevan Ridley, RG3, Jimmy Graham, Randall Cobb, and Julio Jones. Who would you keep?

/qbs get 6 pts for a td, but other than that, standard scoring (not a ppr league) and a flex player.
//Matthew Berry..talk to me, bro

Depends on number of receivers in line up. I'd go Julio or graham. Ridley is great but damn, he's going to get hurt


2 receivers.

Ridley scares me because of Belichick. The guy could be in his dog house any day, and they've got shane vereen and L. blount too.

I'm flustered..I got a bunch of decent guys, but no sure thing...ugghh.
 
2013-08-10 12:57:03 AM
So he loves all the good players and hates all the overrated ones?  Wow, give that man a cookie, he's a fantasy God!  How would I have ever figured this stuff out otherwise?
 
2013-08-10 01:36:11 AM

Mark Ratner: I'm late to this thread, but let me ask you ff experts this...I'm in a sixteen team, two keeper league and I've got to choose between Stevan Ridley, RG3, Jimmy Graham, Randall Cobb, and Julio Jones. Who would you keep?

/qbs get 6 pts for a td, but other than that, standard scoring (not a ppr league) and a flex player.
//Matthew Berry..talk to me, bro


Where are you drafting? I'd go with Jones & Graham, as I'd imagine RG3 and Cobb would likely be around to draft later. With RBs being so scarce, I might consider Ridley over Graham but it's very close.
 
2013-08-10 03:15:26 AM

LucklessWonder: Mark Ratner: I'm late to this thread, but let me ask you ff experts this...I'm in a sixteen team, two keeper league and I've got to choose between Stevan Ridley, RG3, Jimmy Graham, Randall Cobb, and Julio Jones. Who would you keep?

/qbs get 6 pts for a td, but other than that, standard scoring (not a ppr league) and a flex player.
//Matthew Berry..talk to me, bro

Where are you drafting? I'd go with Jones & Graham, as I'd imagine RG3 and Cobb would likely be around to draft later. With RBs being so scarce, I might consider Ridley over Graham but it's very close.


Just to echo everyone else, I'd go Jones, then Graham or Ridley or maaaaybe Cobb if you're a believer.

Probably Ridley, though.
 
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