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(Washington Post)   AccuWeather launches new 45 day forecast. Apparently they figure if they go out that far, one of those days is bound to be right   (washingtonpost.com ) divider line
    More: Fail, Accuweather, weather forecasts, time horizon, Labor Day, air launch, chaos theory  
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576 clicks; posted to Geek » on 08 Aug 2013 at 9:19 AM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-08-08 09:20:48 AM  
Accuweather weather babes thread, please.
 
2013-08-08 09:28:36 AM  
Anything past about 5 - 7 days will always be complete guesswork, no matter how powerful measurement and computing get. Look up chaos theory. The whole thing was basically invented by Lorentz to explain why long term weather models suck.

/Not climate, weather. There is a difference.
 
2013-08-08 09:32:44 AM  
And cue the argument for and against global warming....and, roll the graphs...and take camera two on the ninja-pirate argument...and post the graphic with "I like where this is thread is going"....and stand-by to go to commercial. Go to commercial; We'll be right back after these messages;
 
2013-08-08 09:37:51 AM  
Here in the Midwest, any long range forecast is a joke. It's been especially bad the last couple years with the weather patterns being completely farked up.
 
2013-08-08 09:38:39 AM  
Just don't type in a negative zip code.
 
2013-08-08 09:40:42 AM  
Around here, they can't even get four hours right, let alone four days.

Take yesterday, for example. They said it was supposed to rain as I was getting out of work and I forgot my umbrella. So, I was watching the FutureCast on Weather.com and they said a huge ball of orange and yellow was going to be right on top of me office building at 5:00. I normally leave at 4:30, so I left a little earlier since I have 3 blocks to walk to meet my vanpool and figured I could beat the rain.

Not a drop of water. Not even a dark cloud in the sky. Looked at the radar, nothing had even come close to the city, let alone downtown.
 
2013-08-08 09:41:05 AM  
I got your long range Texas forecast right here.  It's hot, it's gonna be hot and it's gonna stay hot.

/hot
 
2013-08-08 09:42:34 AM  
it's hot as fark in central texas; we need lots of rain.
 
2013-08-08 09:49:00 AM  
sphotos-b-dfw.xx.fbcdn.net
 
2013-08-08 09:51:45 AM  
Did they hire an ex-Gillette executive?
 
2013-08-08 10:02:24 AM  
Still better than the weather channel and their infuriating insistence on accosting you with every bullshiat, irrelevant video and ALL CAPS DOOMSDAY HEADLINE they can find as you soon as you load the homepage.
 
2013-08-08 10:05:38 AM  
The best anyone can realistically hope to do at that range is predict whether temperature and precipitation are likely to be trending above or below average based on large scale indicators such as El Niño.  This is something that NOAA does.
 
2013-08-08 10:15:32 AM  
No matter how much you study and predict the weather or how much money you spend on top of the line equipment, Mother Nature will say 'F*ck you' and do whatever it wants.
 
2013-08-08 10:21:50 AM  
My local news channel often emphasizes using the European vs American weather models to get the most accurate weather forecasts.

//This is not particularly relevant to anything, but I always find the differences in the accuracy interesting.
 
2013-08-08 10:33:52 AM  
I am way more interested in Blaccuweather.

/why isn't that an app?
 
2013-08-08 10:42:50 AM  

show me: Anything past about 5 - 7 days will always be complete guesswork, no matter how powerful measurement and computing get. Look up chaos theory. The whole thing was basically invented by Lorentz to explain why long term weather models suck.

/Not climate, weather. There is a difference.


This is the reason I stopped liking the "Old Farmer's Almanac." I think that their 365-day forecasts are pretty much made up or copy/pasted from year to year.
 
2013-08-08 10:54:03 AM  

Orgasmatron138: I am way more interested in Blaccuweather.

/why isn't that an app?


You mean this?
img466.imageshack.us
/Hizzle
 
2013-08-08 12:18:03 PM  
As a meteorologist...

i2.kym-cdn.com

show me: Anything past about 5 - 7 days will always be complete guesswork, no matter how powerful measurement and computing get. Look up chaos theory. The whole thing was basically invented by Lorentz to explain why long term weather models suck.

/Not climate, weather. There is a difference.


This, that, these and those.

/Never knew he coined the term "butterfly effect", but it certainly makes sense in his line of work
 
2013-08-08 01:22:01 PM  
I'm OK with this as long as they drop the Accu part of AccuWeather.
 
2013-08-08 02:05:35 PM  
I would imagine that a 45 day forecast could be somewhat accurate if you increase the area being forecasted but not very useful to anyone interested in their pinpoint location....  for instance forecasting the average temperature by region as opposed to average temperature by city.  But the larger the sample size the less useful the prediction because people are more interested in the extremes and trends rather than averages.
 
2013-08-08 02:17:16 PM  

RedTank: I would imagine that a 45 day forecast could be somewhat accurate if you increase the area being forecasted but not very useful to anyone interested in their pinpoint location....  for instance forecasting the average temperature by region as opposed to average temperature by city.  But the larger the sample size the less useful the prediction because people are more interested in the extremes and trends rather than averages.


What you're talking about there kind of rides the line between the definition of "weather" and "climate."
 
2013-08-08 04:12:10 PM  
According to them I live in some city called Skyline, NE. Which I'm pretty sure is known to the rest of the country as Omaha, but then again I don't know, I've only lived here my whole life
 
2013-08-08 04:47:15 PM  

Barry McCokiner: According to them I live in some city called Skyline, NE. Which I'm pretty sure is known to the rest of the country as Omaha, but then again I don't know, I've only lived here my whole life


Probably your ISP is based close to Skyline and they're going by your IP address.
 
2013-08-08 04:49:34 PM  

ds_4815: As a meteorologist...

[i2.kym-cdn.com image 400x525]

show me: Anything past about 5 - 7 days will always be complete guesswork, no matter how powerful measurement and computing get. Look up chaos theory. The whole thing was basically invented by Lorentz to explain why long term weather models suck.

/Not climate, weather. There is a difference.

This, that, these and those.

/Never knew he coined the term "butterfly effect", but it certainly makes sense in his line of work


The climate is still suffering from the effects of labial fluttering I induced in 1994.
 
2013-08-08 04:52:04 PM  

HotIgneous Intruder: The climate is still suffering from the effects of labial fluttering I induced in 1994.


It took 24 posts to get to labial fluttering? Fark, I am disappoint.
 
2013-08-09 10:31:27 PM  

show me: Anything past about 5 - 7 days will always be complete guesswork, no matter how powerful measurement and computing get. Look up chaos theory. The whole thing was basically invented by Lorentz to explain why long term weather models suck.

/Not climate, weather. There is a difference.


Not like the climate models were much better.  In recent years, scientists have been having to explain why global warming seemed to come to a stop, and when one area would be losing ice, another would be gaining (and yes, I know that is more related to weather, but it hasn't stopped people from crowing anytime they see a picture of pools in the Arctic or polar bears on icebergs).  It's all a crap shoot, with people acting like meteorologists and climatologists are some sort of prophets, when in reality, it is easy to point out the predictions that were right while ignoring those that were wrong.
 
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