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(The Epoch Times)   Despite denials from the government, foreign investment is fleeing China because it's becoming too expensive for many manufacturers - with many taking their factories elsewhere   (theepochtimes.com) divider line 105
    More: Interesting, foreign investment, South China Morning Post, China's National Bureau of Statistics, Guangdong, manufacturers, value-added taxes  
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2264 clicks; posted to Business » on 02 Aug 2013 at 1:07 PM (37 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



105 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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vpb [TotalFark]
2013-08-02 12:09:11 PM
That's why I never believed that claim that China would be the worlds biggest economy by 2050.  Their growth is based on cheap labor, which becomes less cheap as their economy develops and wages go up.
 
2013-08-02 12:24:28 PM
The Epoch Times isn't exactly a disinterested observer in this, you know.
 
2013-08-02 01:10:31 PM
And they will steal your prducts and make knockoffs of their own.
 
2013-08-02 01:14:20 PM
$4 gas makes shipping very costly.
 
2013-08-02 01:32:23 PM

Pick13: $4 gas makes shipping very costly.


Not if they signed up for a Prime account.
 
2013-08-02 01:32:30 PM
Ask not for whom the Times pochs; it pochs for thee.
 
2013-08-02 01:35:42 PM
Damn unions
 
2013-08-02 01:51:42 PM
a lot of low tech production such as clothing started leaving china for Vietnam a couple of years ago.

china is also becoming prone to labor shortages in semi-skilled jobs
 
2013-08-02 01:52:54 PM
Given the products on the market, if China is too expensive, I don't even wanna see what we're going to get from someplace cheaper.  Labor is already the tiniest fraction of the cost of goods coming from there.  In order to save more than a penny or two *per shipping container*, they're going to have to come up with some funky alternative materials...

/seriously, goods by the ton hardly cost more than the raw materials
 
2013-08-02 02:04:57 PM
I thought "elsewhere" was "poorer areas of China".
 
2013-08-02 02:07:53 PM
After moving production to China from near Seattle about 10 years ago, a couple of years ago my brother's employer brought everything back to North Carolina; lock, stock and barrel. Industrial wages in China have reached more than $8/hr in many areas, and given the quality, IP and transport issues that add up to about $4/hr, it's simply cheaper to make their shiat here with non-union labor.
 
2013-08-02 02:08:59 PM
This has been coming for years.  Look now to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, etc.

Also China has a housing bubble that will make ours look as bad as a stain on an apartment floor.
 
2013-08-02 02:12:29 PM

The All-Powerful Atheismo: This has been coming for years.  Look now to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, etc.

Also China has a housing bubble that will make ours look as bad as a stain on an apartment floor.


And they're headed towards a population age crunch at least as bad as Japan's.  China's going to be interesting.
 
2013-08-02 02:13:43 PM

you have pee hands: The All-Powerful Atheismo: This has been coming for years.  Look now to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, etc.

Also China has a housing bubble that will make ours look as bad as a stain on an apartment floor.

And they're headed towards a population age crunch at least as bad as Japan's.  China's going to be interesting.


Also they have pee hands.
 
2013-08-02 02:15:29 PM
That Laotian swamp land I picked up 20 years ago is finally gonna take off!
 
2013-08-02 02:15:50 PM
From what I understand, it is a deep-rooted cultural expectation in many areas of the world to be bribed.  A contractor offers to do a job at $10k USD, only on the expectation of another $10k under the table.  When confronted, the attitude presented is 'well of course I under-bid the project!  I had to get the contract, right?'  So businesses are fleeing an increasingly greedy and corrupt economic environment- big shocker.  Now here's the kicker; government and business masters are going to say "oh, this is bad, my income is falling.  I'd better undercut more to get the contracts and then increase the intensity of the pressure I exert on getting bribes, to compensate for this."
 
2013-08-02 02:16:57 PM

The All-Powerful Atheismo: Also they have pee hands.


True, but not as bad as the folks who live next to the Ganges.
 
2013-08-02 02:23:13 PM
the whole police letting them lock their employers in their office until their demands are met probably doesn't help
 
2013-08-02 02:25:41 PM

The All-Powerful Atheismo: This has been coming for years.  Look now to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, etc.

Also China has a housing bubble that will make ours look as bad as a stain on an apartment floor.


"Will"? Hell, Chenggong has 100,000+ brand new, freshly built apartments without tenants, entire blocks of empty skyscrapers, and so on, and that's just in one city - China has plenty of "ghost cities". It's not a "housing bubble" - it's an expanding housing universe, about ready to collapse in upon itself in a marketing compression so complete not even corruption can escape.
 
kab
2013-08-02 02:26:20 PM
No one in this thread will live to see it, but it will be a wonderful day when capitalism simply runs out of exploitable labor.  I'd love to see what winds up happening next.
 
2013-08-02 02:26:41 PM
once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!
 
jgi
2013-08-02 02:28:16 PM

onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!


America exploited Africans once before, I'm surprised we haven't already done it again.
 
2013-08-02 02:29:46 PM

kab: No one in this thread will live to see it, but it will be a wonderful day when capitalism simply runs out of exploitable labor.  I'd love to see what winds up happening next.


Droids
 
2013-08-02 02:35:58 PM

onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!


let's leave subby's mom out of this.
 
2013-08-02 02:43:18 PM

jgi: onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!

America exploited Africans once before, I'm surprised we haven't already done it again.


We very seriously exploited african americans, but you'd have to enlighten me on how we exploited africans. I think your going to find this task rather difficult.
 
2013-08-02 02:43:50 PM

onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!


Perhaps.. but the West has never seemed to be able to figure out Africa... and things usually go bad in a big way. The Chinese are also all over Africa trying to get their hunk of flesh. More than likely the next source of cheap labor will be us dumbass 'Merkins™
 
2013-08-02 02:45:13 PM

FormlessOne: "Will"? Hell, Chenggong has 100,000+ brand new, freshly built apartments without tenants, entire blocks of empty skyscrapers, and so on, and that's just in one city - China has plenty of "ghost cities". It's not a "housing bubble" - it's an expanding housing universe, about ready to collapse in upon itself in a marketing compression so complete not even corruption can escape.


and whats even more fun is that housing there is a major source of individual private investment.  people don't put their savings into the bank or stocks- they put them into a second or 3rd apartment. the new middle class that china is trying to create are completely boned when this crashes.

/also they've destroyed their environment to the point of near irreversability
 
jgi
2013-08-02 02:47:07 PM

dirkfunk: jgi: onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!

America exploited Africans once before, I'm surprised we haven't already done it again.

We very seriously exploited african americans, but you'd have to enlighten me on how we exploited africans. I think your going to find this task rather difficult.


Maybe I'm incorrect in this line of thought, so feel free to correct me, but before we kidnapped all the "African Americans" I believed they lived full-time in Africa, making them... Africans?
 
2013-08-02 02:48:09 PM

FormlessOne: The All-Powerful Atheismo: This has been coming for years.  Look now to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, etc.

Also China has a housing bubble that will make ours look as bad as a stain on an apartment floor.

"Will"? Hell, Chenggong has 100,000+ brand new, freshly built apartments without tenants, entire blocks of empty skyscrapers, and so on, and that's just in one city - China has plenty of "ghost cities". It's not a "housing bubble" - it's an expanding housing universe, about ready to collapse in upon itself in a marketing compression so complete not even corruption can escape.


"Will" as in it hasn't collapsed yet, so yes I agree with what you said.
 
2013-08-02 02:53:10 PM

jgi: dirkfunk: jgi: onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!

America exploited Africans once before, I'm surprised we haven't already done it again.

We very seriously exploited african americans, but you'd have to enlighten me on how we exploited africans. I think your going to find this task rather difficult.

Maybe I'm incorrect in this line of thought, so feel free to correct me, but before we kidnapped all the "African Americans" I believed they lived full-time in Africa, making them... Africans?


I can't believe this had to be said.
 
2013-08-02 03:01:06 PM

kab: No one in this thread will live to see it, but it will be a wonderful day when capitalism simply runs out of exploitable labor.  I'd love to see what winds up happening next.


Constantly-shifting poverty zones.

Kinda like today.  Just...not today.

The entire world is being gamed.
 
2013-08-02 03:02:09 PM

dirkfunk: jgi: onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!

America exploited Africans once before, I'm surprised we haven't already done it again.

We very seriously exploited african americans, but you'd have to enlighten me on how we exploited africans. I think your going to find this task rather difficult.


wat
 
2013-08-02 03:02:53 PM

jgi: dirkfunk: jgi: onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!

America exploited Africans once before, I'm surprised we haven't already done it again.

We very seriously exploited african americans, but you'd have to enlighten me on how we exploited africans. I think your going to find this task rather difficult.

Maybe I'm incorrect in this line of thought, so feel free to correct me, but before we kidnapped all the "African Americans" I believed they lived full-time in Africa, making them... Africans?


Ohhh. You thought America did that? Last time I checked the USA was not part of Portugal, Spain or the Netherlands. Here's a hint, the international slave trade was very much over by 1776.
 
2013-08-02 03:03:14 PM

kab: No one in this thread will live to see it, but it will be a wonderful day when capitalism simply runs out of exploitable labor.  I'd love to see what winds up happening next.


That won't happen unless we get some serious population controls.  As the supply of labor increases to infinity, its price decreases to zero (i.e. slavery).  We've tried various methods to create artificial limits on supply but none of them have been completely successful.
 
2013-08-02 03:03:43 PM

graeth: Damn unions


This!

Organized labor is destroying the Chinese miracle. They need to decimate organized labor in Communist China.

/by decimate I mean the Roman meaning of the word. 1 out of every 10 workers made into instant organ donors with the bill for the bullet sent to their surviving relatives
/now that's bootstrappy
 
jgi
2013-08-02 03:11:50 PM

dirkfunk: jgi: dirkfunk: jgi: onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!

America exploited Africans once before, I'm surprised we haven't already done it again.

We very seriously exploited african americans, but you'd have to enlighten me on how we exploited africans. I think your going to find this task rather difficult.

Maybe I'm incorrect in this line of thought, so feel free to correct me, but before we kidnapped all the "African Americans" I believed they lived full-time in Africa, making them... Africans?

Ohhh. You thought America did that? Last time I checked the USA was not part of Portugal, Spain or the Netherlands. Here's a hint, the international slave trade was very much over by 1776.


Okay, buddy.

So if someone from Portugal kidnapped you and took you to China to work in slavery, are you now an American Chinese? Would you consider yourself American still?

Also, even if other countries brought Africans to America to work in slavery, that doesn't make America's hands clean. "No no no, those other assholes brought them here. Now they're Americans!"

You would have some semantic argument for the African Americans that were born here. But that first batch that were brought here, no matter by whom, were exploited Africans. Exploited by Americans.
 
2013-08-02 03:22:22 PM

FormlessOne: Also China has a housing bubble that will make ours look as bad as a stain on an apartment floor.

"Will"? Hell, Chenggong has 100,000+ brand new, freshly built apartments without tenants, entire blocks of empty skyscrapers, and so on, and that's just in one city - China has plenty of "ghost cities". It's not a "housing bubble" - it's an expanding housing universe, about ready to collapse in upon itself in a marketing compression so complete not even corruption can escape.


Any news articles you can point to about this?  I'd love to read up about it.  Seriously.
 
2013-08-02 03:23:48 PM

dirkfunk: Ohhh. You thought America did that? Last time I checked the USA was not part of Portugal, Spain or the Netherlands. Here's a hint, the international slave trade was very much over by 1776.


Oh, was it over in 1776? Is that why the South pursued the Three Fifths Compromise in 1787? Is that why America fought a civil war in the mid 1800's?
 
2013-08-02 03:35:11 PM

valkore: Any news articles you can point to about this? I'd love to read up about it. Seriously.


There's one on the front page right now:
http://www.fark.com/comments/7871761/Finally-a-Paris-with-no-Parisia ns
 
2013-08-02 03:35:42 PM

mainstreet62: Oh, was it over in 1776? Is that why the South pursued the Three Fifths Compromise in 1787? Is that why America fought a civil war in the mid 1800's?


the international slave *trade* was over (officially, smugglers still brought in new slaves illegally.) it didn't end slavery for anyone already enslaved or for their children.
 
2013-08-02 03:36:02 PM

dirkfunk: Here's a hint, the international slave trade was very much over by 1776.


Wrong. International slave trading was allowed, even constitutionally protected, until 1808.
 
2013-08-02 03:43:51 PM

Fireproof: Wrong. International slave trading was allowed, even constitutionally protected, until 1808


i had thought it was earlier than that, but wikipedia tells me you are correct. 1808 for the US, with denmark and england slightly earlier. Interesting that tom  jefferson actually led the legislature in virginia to ban importation in 1778 though, considering his personal views
 
2013-08-02 03:45:30 PM

jgi: dirkfunk: jgi: dirkfunk: jgi: onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!

America exploited Africans once before, I'm surprised we haven't already done it again.

We very seriously exploited african americans, but you'd have to enlighten me on how we exploited africans. I think your going to find this task rather difficult.

Maybe I'm incorrect in this line of thought, so feel free to correct me, but before we kidnapped all the "African Americans" I believed they lived full-time in Africa, making them... Africans?

Ohhh. You thought America did that? Last time I checked the USA was not part of Portugal, Spain or the Netherlands. Here's a hint, the international slave trade was very much over by 1776.

Okay, buddy......


I'm not your buddy, guy.

i149.photobucket.com
 
2013-08-02 03:46:47 PM

Kuroshin: Given the products on the market, if China is too expensive, I don't even wanna see what we're going to get from someplace cheaper.  Labor is already the tiniest fraction of the cost of goods coming from there.  In order to save more than a penny or two *per shipping container*, they're going to have to come up with some funky alternative materials...

/seriously, goods by the ton hardly cost more than the raw materials


Indonesia, Vietnam, and who knows, maybe Laos, Thailand and Cambodia after that? I just bought a new electric guitar that was built in Indonesia. Years ago, imported guitars came from Japan. Then Japan's guitars were too nice, and the manufacturing more expensive, so it all moved to South Korea. Now it's all going to Indonesia.

Eventually we'll have to solve the problem of paying people dick to make our consumer goods. I know there are more countries willing to undercut the other ones, but at some point there's gotta be some sort of reckoning.
 
2013-08-02 03:49:42 PM

verbaltoxin: Years ago, imported guitars came from Japan.


Similarly, Americans in the 1980s were panicked that Japan would replace the US as the dominant economic power before Korea undercut them.

Now the same thing appears to be happening with China, and Indonesia & Vietnam are doing the undercutting.
 
2013-08-02 03:55:04 PM
So... They're moving to Africa?
 
2013-08-02 04:00:18 PM
America (and Europeans) did a fairly good job exploiting Africa after the slave trade ended.

Mining deals that gave very little revenue to the state or even cause governments to lose money (government-promised power subsidies had a nifty way of more than cancelling out generated tax revenue)

US & Soviet governments funding rebels in the Angolan Civil War, which spills over into the DRC. Millions of people die.

US & European companies dumping toxic waste, as well as reselling "recycled" appliances & electronics there (ruining many attempts for Africans in developing their own industries)
 
2013-08-02 04:00:22 PM
So they're moving factories to India, Indonesia, and Nigeria now?

Thanks Jinping!
 
2013-08-02 04:01:28 PM
We've yanked back our tooling and sourced a domestic supplier for those parts.  Besides the continuous crappy quality, our Chinese manufacturer started switching up some of the raw materials, presumably for cheaper stuff, without telling us.  That's a big no-no.  Some of it got out into the field, causing parts to break and machines to go down.  The cost to replace all the suspected parts far outweighed anything we thought we were saving by getting the parts a little bit cheaper.
 
2013-08-02 04:04:42 PM

verbaltoxin: Kuroshin: Given the products on the market, if China is too expensive, I don't even wanna see what we're going to get from someplace cheaper.  Labor is already the tiniest fraction of the cost of goods coming from there.  In order to save more than a penny or two *per shipping container*, they're going to have to come up with some funky alternative materials...

/seriously, goods by the ton hardly cost more than the raw materials

Indonesia, Vietnam, and who knows, maybe Laos, Thailand and Cambodia after that? I just bought a new electric guitar that was built in Indonesia. Years ago, imported guitars came from Japan. Then Japan's guitars were too nice, and the manufacturing more expensive, so it all moved to South Korea. Now it's all going to Indonesia.

Eventually we'll have to solve the problem of paying people dick to make our consumer goods. I know there are more countries willing to undercut the other ones, but at some point there's gotta be some sort of reckoning.


After Indonesia and Vietnam (and maybe Thailand) though, you start running into the problem with the fact that there aren't enough workers to replace the Chinese labor.  China was relatively easy to operate in because you had hundreds of millions of workers who spoke (more or less) the same language; if you're going to replace them with workers from other Asian countries, you're going to have to familiarize yourself with probably two, three more languages; figure out different legal systems and cultural institutions; and otherwise stretch your lines of communication to the point where it would be almost impossible to manage effectively.

You mention Laos and Cambodia; those two countries together have about 20 million people, less than half the population of the Pearl River Delta in Southern China.  The entire continent of Africa has 1 billion people, less than the population of China (and that's before taking political stability into consideration).  Those workers, because the countries are so much poorer and less educated than the average Chinese, are also likely to be less productive.  To replace the manufacturing capacity of China is going to be a long, drawn-out, and likely costly process.
 
2013-08-02 04:15:37 PM

you have pee hands: The All-Powerful Atheismo: This has been coming for years.  Look now to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, etc.

Also China has a housing bubble that will make ours look as bad as a stain on an apartment floor.

And they're headed towards a population age crunch at least as bad as Japan's.  China's going to be interesting.


And they're going to have a food problem, since their population is still growing and they are loosing farmland at a ferocious pace.  Plus much of the agriculture they have is based on a deep water aquifer that isn't easily replenished.  So the loss of land will accelerate.  We sent 'em our money for trinkets, ADM will get it back for wheat and soybeans.  We have some water problems in the US, but their problems makes ours look like rich kids bickering over an ocean of resources (Looking at you Southern CA).

Which is sad because they had just become a net food exporter, only to immediately turn around and become a net food importer.
 
2013-08-02 04:19:08 PM

ArkPanda: As the supply of labor increases to infinity, its price decreases


Makes perfect sense. Anyone can tell you about how lots of employers are treating their workers like shiat right now because there's so many unemployed that could replace them right now.
 
2013-08-02 04:23:44 PM

jgi: dirkfunk: jgi: onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!

America exploited Africans once before, I'm surprised we haven't already done it again.

We very seriously exploited african americans, but you'd have to enlighten me on how we exploited africans. I think your going to find this task rather difficult.

Maybe I'm incorrect in this line of thought, so feel free to correct me, but before we kidnapped all the "African Americans" I believed they lived full-time in Africa, making them... Africans?


That isn't even considering the continued support for certain current regimes/groups that are more than happy to sell us the metals necessary for our smartphones. Or diamonds. Or platinum.
 
2013-08-02 04:26:45 PM

kab: No one in this thread will live to see it, but it will be a wonderful day when capitalism simply runs out of exploitable labor.  I'd love to see what winds up happening next.


Robots, dummy.
 
2013-08-02 04:30:54 PM

verbaltoxin: Eventually we'll have to solve the problem of paying people dick to make our consumer goods.


It'll be interesting to see how Google's assembled in the USA, Moto-X works out. Yes, only 50% of the components are from the USA, but it's a good start, and they're turning an American supply-chain into an advantage with a build-to-order design.

If they price it on Google Play like a Nexus 4, it'll be my next phone without a second thought.
 
2013-08-02 04:31:42 PM

kab: No one in this thread will live to see it, but it will be a wonderful day when capitalism simply runs out of exploitable labor.  I'd love to see what winds up happening next.


Full automation.
 
2013-08-02 04:36:07 PM

kab: No one in this thread will live to see it, but it will be a wonderful day when capitalism simply runs out of exploitable labor.  I'd love to see what winds up happening next.


I think we'll live to see the rise of the robots. Now, whether we'll live long enough to see the robot rebellion is up to the robots.
 
2013-08-02 04:42:25 PM
Doing your manufacturing in China is a crapshoot, and smart business-people don't like to blindly roll the dice. Intellectual Property means almost nothing in that country, and if there is money to be made in stealing your design, consider it stolen. There's no mechanism for collecting on judgements, even if you were to win a court case there. Turn your back for two days and they will replace spec'd materials with cheaper ones (or dangerous ones). I once sent some samples of Chinese made metal-injection-molded parts to Germany for analysis - yeah, full of cobalt.
 
2013-08-02 04:46:00 PM
Manufacturing will soon return to America with a vengeance.
 
2013-08-02 04:55:00 PM

BurrisYeltsin: Manufacturing will soon return to America with a vengeance.


Oddly enough, I agree with you. Who cares where cheap junk without any IP is made, but higher end stuff? It's returning here in droves now that globalization has largely broken the back of organized labor.

Note to American workers: just don't expect the old pay and benefits, and keep in mind that automation will continue to displace you. It's only a matter of time before some 'bot takes your job for good.
 
2013-08-02 04:57:08 PM

Stone Meadow: BurrisYeltsin: Manufacturing will soon return to America with a vengeance.

Oddly enough, I agree with you. Who cares where cheap junk without any IP is made, but higher end stuff? It's returning here in droves now that globalization has largely broken the back of organized labor.

Note to American workers: just don't expect the old pay and benefits, and keep in mind that automation will continue to displace you. It's only a matter of time before some 'bot takes your job for good.


Oil is going up, and that means it will become more profitable to produce iPads in America due to increased shipping cost.
 
kab
2013-08-02 05:04:28 PM
Fano:
Robots, dummy.

Same end result.  Lots of people with no actual need to work (we're already heading there due to automation).
 
2013-08-02 05:06:22 PM

kab: No one in this thread will live to see it, but it will be a wonderful day when capitalism simply runs out of exploitable labor.  I'd love to see what winds up happening next.


There will always be peasants or serfs or slaves or blue collar workers. No matter what kind of economy or government you run, someone is at the bottom of the hierarchy. The entirety of human civilization would have to collapse back to hunter/gatherer societies in order for egalitarianism to re-emerge.
 
2013-08-02 05:07:29 PM
I work for a CNC machine shop.   In the late 90's we lost a lot of customers to Asia, HP and Xerox were our two biggest ones.  (we had a 90% drop in sales in one year)

We retooled and refocused our efforts.   We much more complicated parts, in smaller quantities.   Our business is bigger than ever.   Some of our smaller customers have come back to us.    We even ship one part to Taiwan for an aerospace customer.

/not scared of China
 
2013-08-02 05:10:20 PM

kab: Fano:
Robots, dummy.

Same end result.  Lots of people with no actual need to work (we're already heading there due to automation).


Yeah, the rich are just gonna gas all those people.
 
2013-08-02 05:10:49 PM

dirkfunk: jgi: dirkfunk: jgi: onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!

America exploited Africans once before, I'm surprised we haven't already done it again.

We very seriously exploited african americans, but you'd have to enlighten me on how we exploited africans. I think your going to find this task rather difficult.

Maybe I'm incorrect in this line of thought, so feel free to correct me, but before we kidnapped all the "African Americans" I believed they lived full-time in Africa, making them... Africans?

Ohhh. You thought America did that? Last time I checked the USA was not part of Portugal, Spain or the Netherlands. Here's a hint, the international slave trade was very much over by 1776.


sophistry
1.
the teachings and ways of teaching of the ancient Greek sophists.
2. subtle, superficially plausible, but actually specious or fallacious reasoning, as was sometimes used by the sophists.
 
2013-08-02 05:27:35 PM

kab: Fano:
Robots, dummy.

Same end result.  Lots of people with no actual need to work (we're already heading there due to automation).


We could retool our economies and let people live a leisurely life while having basic needs met but allowing them the freedom to explore whatever they wish.

Or, the most well off isolate themselves somewhere reaping the benefits of all that automation while leaving the rest of us to fight over the scraps of what is left.  They wouldn't even need to hire human guards, just have robot ones.
 
2013-08-02 05:28:31 PM
farm3.staticflickr.com
 
2013-08-02 05:34:01 PM

ShadowKamui: kab: No one in this thread will live to see it, but it will be a wonderful day when capitalism simply runs out of exploitable labor.  I'd love to see what winds up happening next.

Droids


This is actually the correct answer.

The total value of products made in the United States has consistantly gone up over the years (with the possible exception of the recent recession), even after adjusting for inflation.  It just takes fewer workers to make x amount of stuff due to automation and robots and stuff.  (Due to increasing standards of living and population increases, the total value of stuff purchased by American consumers overall has gone up by even more, since net imports have also increased.)
 
2013-08-02 05:36:50 PM
Just bring it on back to the South.  We don't have the pesky regulations down here, and we'd love to be paid pennies on the dollar just to stick it to the Yankees!  Hell, you can even put us in substandard conditions and be happier than a pig rolling in its own shiat.

God, I hate the South.
 
2013-08-02 05:39:32 PM

ArkPanda: That won't happen unless we get some serious population controls.  As the supply of labor increases to infinity, its price decreases to zero (i.e. slavery).  We've tried various methods to create artificial limits on supply but none of them have been completely successful.


i.canvasugc.com
MATH DOESN'T WORK THAT WAY!

Seriously, you are forgetting that people who provide labor are also consumers.  If there are more people supplying labor due to population increases, there is also more demand for products made by said labor.
 
2013-08-02 05:39:46 PM

meat0918: kab: Fano:
Robots, dummy.

Same end result.  Lots of people with no actual need to work (we're already heading there due to automation).

We could retool our economies and let people live a leisurely life while having basic needs met but allowing them the freedom to explore whatever they wish.

Or, the most well off isolate themselves somewhere reaping the benefits of all that automation while leaving the rest of us to fight over the scraps of what is left.  They wouldn't even need to hire human guards, just have robot ones.


You need one more option between those two, because on Fark, the correct answer is always (c).

/ correct in this case meaning 'most likely,' not 'best.'
 
2013-08-02 05:56:08 PM

dirkfunk: jgi: onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!

America exploited Africans once before, I'm surprised we haven't already done it again.

We very seriously exploited african americans, but you'd have to enlighten me on how we exploited africans. I think your going to find this task rather difficult.


black people come from africa
 
2013-08-02 06:08:09 PM

onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!


There's still a lot of dirt cheap labor in Best Korea.
 
2013-08-02 06:25:52 PM

Mad_Radhu: onzmadi: once Asia plays out ...I guess, Africa maybe?

 Made in Djbouti!

There's still a lot of dirt cheap labor in Best Korea.


In the scope of things, not really. 24.5 million Best Koreans would make it, if China were to absorb it, the 23rd largest province of 33, with several Chinese provinces having 3-4 times more people than the DPRK.

Indonesia has enough population to matter.  Best Korea is kinda a rounding error.
 
2013-08-02 06:44:03 PM

kab: No one in this thread will live to see it, but it will be a wonderful day when capitalism simply runs out of exploitable labor.  I'd love to see what winds up happening next.


It won't.  They (the corporations) will end up purposely wrecking some major populations economy allowing for cheap(er) labor.  Hell, they already pretty much did it in the US.
 
2013-08-02 07:06:06 PM

verbaltoxin: Kuroshin: Given the products on the market, if China is too expensive, I don't even wanna see what we're going to get from someplace cheaper.  Labor is already the tiniest fraction of the cost of goods coming from there.  In order to save more than a penny or two *per shipping container*, they're going to have to come up with some funky alternative materials...

/seriously, goods by the ton hardly cost more than the raw materials

Indonesia, Vietnam, and who knows, maybe Laos, Thailand and Cambodia after that? I just bought a new electric guitar that was built in Indonesia. Years ago, imported guitars came from Japan. Then Japan's guitars were too nice, and the manufacturing more expensive, so it all moved to South Korea. Now it's all going to Indonesia.

Eventually we'll have to solve the problem of paying people dick to make our consumer goods. I know there are more countries willing to undercut the other ones, but at some point there's gotta be some sort of reckoning.


Automation.  At $2/day, people make a LOT of sense.  At $20/hour, robots (plus one mechanic making more money than God) start looking really attractive.

Or instead of hiring an army of ditchdiggers, you buy a backhoe, hire 1 guy to run it, and a couple guys to do the detail work around the edges and pay them $19/hour.

Heck, we're already doing that in the USA.

www.intellectualtakeout.org

(Notice how every recession has had a "Lost recovery" since about 2000)

Move everyone possible into highly skilled "design" jobs (and at a certain level, every engineer is just that), the bullshiatters into sales, a few who are good with tools into mechanical jobs repairing the army of robots, the rest who are willing to work into relatively poorly paid "need the human touch" jobs (Think non-robotic tech support), and those who don't want to work onto "The roof probably won't leak" welfare.

/Keep in mind that we did this before.  It was called the Industrial Revolution (where we went from 90% of the population working in agriculture to about 10%, and shoved the rest into manufacturing)and that worked out pretty well after about a century.
 
2013-08-02 07:30:48 PM

weiserfireman: I work for a CNC machine shop.   In the late 90's we lost a lot of customers to Asia, HP and Xerox were our two biggest ones.  (we had a 90% drop in sales in one year)

We retooled and refocused our efforts.   We much more complicated parts, in smaller quantities.   Our business is bigger than ever.   Some of our smaller customers have come back to us.    We even ship one part to Taiwan for an aerospace customer.

/not scared of China


My dad was a machinist before he retired about 15 years ago. In the shops he worked in (NY metro area), the workers were heavily skewed toward immigrants - Europeans like himself through the 60s and 70s, skewing more towards Hispanics in the 80s and 90s. All these guys tended to be hired with few prior skills and basically served apprenticeships until they got proficient. Just out of curiosity, how are things out in your neck of the woods?
 
2013-08-02 07:58:40 PM

Stone Meadow: After moving production to China from near Seattle about 10 years ago, a couple of years ago my brother's employer brought everything back to North Carolina; lock, stock and barrel. Industrial wages in China have reached more than $8/hr in many areas, and given the quality, IP and transport issues that add up to about $4/hr, it's simply cheaper to make their shiat here with non-union labor.


My cousin's employer brought all production back to a union shop. That's all you need to know about how bad it is getting in China.
 
2013-08-02 08:03:39 PM

Pick13: $4 gas makes shipping very costly.




Except for the fact that shipping rates are amongst the cheapest in years, you might be right.

4.bp.blogspot.com
 
2013-08-02 08:25:06 PM

The All-Powerful Atheismo: you have pee hands: The All-Powerful Atheismo: This has been coming for years.  Look now to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, etc.

Also China has a housing bubble that will make ours look as bad as a stain on an apartment floor.

And they're headed towards a population age crunch at least as bad as Japan's.  China's going to be interesting.

Also they have pee hands.


Lol
 
2013-08-02 08:38:51 PM

you have pee hands: The All-Powerful Atheismo: This has been coming for years.  Look now to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, etc.

Also China has a housing bubble that will make ours look as bad as a stain on an apartment floor.

And they're headed towards a population age crunch at least as bad as Japan's.  China's going to be interesting.


And they're pulling that same bullshiat with "non-performing loans" that Japan pulled (where you cover up the fact that a bunch of people who you loaned money to can't pay back the money by giving them even more money).

That bubble is going to implode and it's going to be messy.

/And the official stats are going to be revealed as fraudulent, which will be a really fun reckoning.
 
2013-08-02 08:52:02 PM
Well, looks like China will need to become innovators and producers in the world market instead of the cheap labor pool and knock-off kingdom.  Much harder to do, especially since innovation and new ideas do not usually proliferate under restrictive governments.

It also appears that Western corporations are beginning to run out of cheap labor on a worldwide scale, we'll all be paying full price for our crap in the future.  When that happens a world perma-recession may commence and never end.
 
2013-08-02 09:02:43 PM

Cepheus Crater: Well, looks like China will need to become innovators and producers in the world market instead of the cheap labor pool and knock-off kingdom.  Much harder to do, especially since innovation and new ideas do not usually proliferate under restrictive governments.

It also appears that Western corporations are beginning to run out of cheap labor on a worldwide scale, we'll all be paying full price for our crap in the future.  When that happens a world perma-recession may commence and never end.


I've heard perma-recession comments before, in my 1st year economics class. The teacher smacked that down quick.
 
2013-08-02 09:20:48 PM

inglixthemad: Cepheus Crater: Well, looks like China will need to become innovators and producers in the world market instead of the cheap labor pool and knock-off kingdom.  Much harder to do, especially since innovation and new ideas do not usually proliferate under restrictive governments.

It also appears that Western corporations are beginning to run out of cheap labor on a worldwide scale, we'll all be paying full price for our crap in the future.  When that happens a world perma-recession may commence and never end.

I've heard perma-recession comments before, in my 1st year economics class. The teacher smacked that down quick.


Do you remember (in broad terms) roughly what the teacher said?  I'd be interested in hearing why the economists think that's bullshiat.
 
2013-08-02 09:41:26 PM
Let's see, besides all this you have a hostile totalitarian government that is expanding in the region and claiming territory recognized by UN Treaty as belonging to other nations; butt loads of intellectual property theft; paper-thin lip service to the Rule of Law; Unstable policies, etc, etc.

Yeah, just the place to move and keep all sorts of manufacturing, right?
 
2013-08-02 09:52:42 PM

inglixthemad: Cepheus Crater: Well, looks like China will need to become innovators and producers in the world market instead of the cheap labor pool and knock-off kingdom.  Much harder to do, especially since innovation and new ideas do not usually proliferate under restrictive governments.

It also appears that Western corporations are beginning to run out of cheap labor on a worldwide scale, we'll all be paying full price for our crap in the future.  When that happens a world perma-recession may commence and never end.

I've heard perma-recession comments before, in my 1st year economics class. The teacher smacked that down quick.


Point taken, that's why I say 'may'.  I had an Econ teacher in 2004 who was considered well published in his field dress down a student who was (obvious to all now) going on about a looming housing collapse.  I realize that unkown innovations and technologies may spring up out of nowhere and change that possible scenario, but the current trajectory seems to point to a day of reckoning at some point in the future with regards to wealth and resource distribution.
 
2013-08-02 09:58:17 PM

inglixthemad: I've heard perma-recession comments before, in my 1st year economics class. The teacher smacked that down quick.


Smacking that down quickly explains why economists are having a hard time wrapping some sort of cohesive macro theory around Japan's 22 straight recessionary years (that don't appear to be ending any time soon, Abenomics or not).
 
2013-08-02 10:17:52 PM

meyerkev: inglixthemad: Cepheus Crater: Well, looks like China will need to become innovators and producers in the world market instead of the cheap labor pool and knock-off kingdom.  Much harder to do, especially since innovation and new ideas do not usually proliferate under restrictive governments.

It also appears that Western corporations are beginning to run out of cheap labor on a worldwide scale, we'll all be paying full price for our crap in the future.  When that happens a world perma-recession may commence and never end.

I've heard perma-recession comments before, in my 1st year economics class. The teacher smacked that down quick.

Do you remember (in broad terms) roughly what the teacher said?  I'd be interested in hearing why the economists think that's bullshiat.





Bernake is famous for saying he would run the printing presses 24 hours a day and drop money from helicopters to end a Recession/Depression.
www.learnbonds.com
 
2013-08-02 10:44:30 PM

Cepheus Crater: Well, looks like China will need to become innovators and producers in the world market instead of the cheap labor pool and knock-off kingdom.  Much harder to do, especially since innovation and new ideas do not usually proliferate under restrictive governments.

It also appears that Western corporations are beginning to run out of cheap labor on a worldwide scale, we'll all be paying full price for our crap in the future.  When that happens a world perma-recession may commence and never end.


If manufacturing comes back here and starts paying proper wages, that's called a boom to the economy as more people have more money to buy high quality goods.

I saw a good boot analogy about it, how poor people have to continually buy $10 boots that end up costing $100 because they keep falling apart, where a rich man buys $50 that lasts the same amount of time.
 
2013-08-03 01:23:50 AM

links136: Cepheus Crater: Well, looks like China will need to become innovators and producers in the world market instead of the cheap labor pool and knock-off kingdom.  Much harder to do, especially since innovation and new ideas do not usually proliferate under restrictive governments.

It also appears that Western corporations are beginning to run out of cheap labor on a worldwide scale, we'll all be paying full price for our crap in the future.  When that happens a world perma-recession may commence and never end.

If manufacturing comes back here and starts paying proper wages, that's called a boom to the economy as more people have more money to buy high quality goods.

I saw a good boot analogy about it, how poor people have to continually buy $10 boots that end up costing $100 because they keep falling apart, where a rich man buys $50 that lasts the same amount of time.


Ah, a Pratchett fan? Making Money was interesting as well. I heard he read several economics books to give it a good feel.
 
2013-08-03 05:35:56 AM
i don't care if Wal-Mart goes out of business. their low price goods are of terrible quality. you gets what you pays for.
 
2013-08-03 06:49:27 AM
Keep talking about the downfall of China and it's sure to happen, right? At long as America is #1 then everything is a-ok. Growth is still around 7.5%, tier 2+ cities are rapidly growing, and international investment continues unabated. There is a lot of money floating around over here. China will have a problem with housing, adjust, and continue forward far quicker than the US has.
 
2013-08-03 07:13:57 AM

links136: If manufacturing comes back here and starts paying proper wages, that's called a boom

boonto the economy as more people have more money to buy high quality goods.

I saw a good boot analogy about it, how poor people have to continually buy $10 boots that end up costing $100 because they keep falling apart, where a rich man buys $50 that lasts the same amount of time.


Fixed that for you.

I agree with what you're saying too, when I have a bunch of money I find I'm able to spend it far more efficiently, both in the method you described as well as buying things in bulk etc saves a ridiculous amount of money.  Even little things like bank fees go away when you have enough money to tell the bank you dont want any fees anymore.
 
2013-08-03 09:14:19 AM

Alonjar: I agree with what you're saying too, when I have a bunch of money I find I'm able to spend it far more efficiently, both in the method you described as well as buying things in bulk etc saves a ridiculous amount of money.  Even little things like bank fees go away when you have enough money to tell the bank you dont want any fees anymore.


You can buy a house instead of renting one (landlords don't do it for free, you pay upkeep and taxes bundled in with your rent, plus a tidy sum for him to head off THAT argument), you can buy a decent car for cash and drive it into the ground over 15 years instead of buying one 2 years old on payments and having it fail after 5, buy a place with some acreage and plant a garden and a vineyard for veggies and wine rather than paying crazy prices for food that isn't filled with toxins and $30 a bottle for wine, when something's on sale, buy a case of it and put it in the larder.

That's how old money lives.

/friend's bf let me stay with them for 3 months
//eating lucky charms with a silver spoon is kind of a surreal experience
 
2013-08-03 09:26:41 AM

verbaltoxin: Kuroshin: Given the products on the market, if China is too expensive, I don't even wanna see what we're going to get from someplace cheaper.  Labor is already the tiniest fraction of the cost of goods coming from there.  In order to save more than a penny or two *per shipping container*, they're going to have to come up with some funky alternative materials...

/seriously, goods by the ton hardly cost more than the raw materials

Indonesia, Vietnam, and who knows, maybe Laos, Thailand and Cambodia after that? I just bought a new electric guitar that was built in Indonesia. Years ago, imported guitars came from Japan. Then Japan's guitars were too nice, and the manufacturing more expensive, so it all moved to South Korea. Now it's all going to Indonesia.

Eventually we'll have to solve the problem of paying people dick to make our consumer goods. I know there are more countries willing to undercut the other ones, but at some point there's gotta be some sort of reckoning.


Meh... someone will always be at the bottom of the wage scale no matter what.. Well, that is unless you implement global socialism/communism under one world government...
 
2013-08-03 10:35:06 AM

blipponaut: Keep talking about the downfall of China and it's sure to happen, right? At long as America is #1 then everything is a-ok. Growth is still around 7.5%, tier 2+ cities are rapidly growing, and international investment continues unabated. There is a lot of money floating around over here. China will have a problem with housing, adjust, and continue forward far quicker than the US has.


No...direct foreign investment in China is less than half of what it was just two years ago, and is at its lowest in more than a decade. China may continue as the cheap mass producer of choice for many years, but the idea that your next Chevy or Boeing airliner will have been built there is busted.

www.thebeijingaxis.com
 
2013-08-03 12:21:46 PM
FormlessOne:
"Will"? Hell, Chenggong has 100,000+ brand new, freshly built apartments without tenants, entire blocks of empty skyscrapers, and so on, and that's just in one city - China has plenty of "ghost cities". It's not a "housing bubble" - it's an expanding housing universe, about ready to collapse in upon itself in a marketing compression so complete not even corruption can escape.

I thought that was a side-effect of a legislation that people who own properly must develop it, or it reverts to the State.  Or something to that nature.

Basically, it's cheaper to throw useless buildings up than to do nothing.
 
2013-08-03 02:07:10 PM

FormlessOne: The All-Powerful Atheismo: This has been coming for years.  Look now to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, etc.

Also China has a housing bubble that will make ours look as bad as a stain on an apartment floor.

"Will"? Hell, Chenggong has 100,000+ brand new, freshly built apartments without tenants, entire blocks of empty skyscrapers, and so on, and that's just in one city - China has plenty of "ghost cities". It's not a "housing bubble" - it's an expanding housing universe, about ready to collapse in upon itself in a marketing compression so complete not even corruption can escape.




Came for ghost cities.
 
2013-08-03 02:16:21 PM

KrispyKritter: i don't care if Wal-Mart goes out of business. their low price goods are of terrible quality. you gets what you pays for.


Wal-Mart is the largest private employer in the United States. If they go down, we're in deep shiat. 

Gives you a wonderful view at how screwed we are when you realize the biggest employer in the US is a business that manufacturers nothing, and the second largest is a temp agency.
 
2013-08-03 03:29:11 PM

FormlessOne: The All-Powerful Atheismo: This has been coming for years.  Look now to Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, etc.

Also China has a housing bubble that will make ours look as bad as a stain on an apartment floor.

"Will"? Hell, Chenggong has 100,000+ brand new, freshly built apartments without tenants, entire blocks of empty skyscrapers, and so on, and that's just in one city - China has plenty of "ghost cities". It's not a "housing bubble" - it's an expanding housing universe, about ready to collapse in upon itself in a marketing compression so complete not even corruption can escape.


Other than the fact that it's probably made from shiat materials that won't last that excess housing stock won't be a problem because the Chinese still have about a billion people living on the farm, that stock would probably be taken up in a month or two if they had jobs that would allow them to afford a place in the city. The fact is robot's are going to replace labor faster than a supply of cheap labor is exhausted in China or anywhere else. That's why manufacturing jobs aren't coming back into the midwest in droves, we produce more stuff today than we have since the early 1970's, be we do it with a fraction of the labor that was required back then (US steel production in 2011 was the highest since 1974 but it was produced with about 10% of the 1974 labor force)
 
2013-08-03 06:27:21 PM

kab: No one in this thread will live to see it, but it will be a wonderful day when capitalism simply runs out of exploitable labor.  I'd love to see what winds up happening next.


Androids. The only thing that forstalled the automation craze of the 80's and 90's was the opening up of the trade and exploitable populations of the Third World. Now that cheap labor has run it's course, it's back to robots.
 
2013-08-03 07:48:56 PM

Evil Twin Skippy: kab: No one in this thread will live to see it, but it will be a wonderful day when capitalism simply runs out of exploitable labor.  I'd love to see what winds up happening next.

Androids. The only thing that forstalled the automation craze of the 80's and 90's was the opening up of the trade and exploitable populations of the Third World. Now that cheap labor has run it's course, it's back to robots.


Hmm, I'm not an expert on robotics, but my impression is that there were damned few "pauses" in their progress over the past 30 years. Advances haven't been as startling and visible as some might have wanted, but it wasn't for lack of effort or money. Still, I agree with your conclusion: jobs lost to automation will never be regained.

Now the question is what to do about massive permanent unemployment and then, how to pay for it? The first is addressed in a fairly comprehensive manner in this article. The second in this one. We live in interesting times indeed.
 
2013-08-03 10:53:51 PM

meyerkev: inglixthemad: Cepheus Crater: Well, looks like China will need to become innovators and producers in the world market instead of the cheap labor pool and knock-off kingdom.  Much harder to do, especially since innovation and new ideas do not usually proliferate under restrictive governments.

It also appears that Western corporations are beginning to run out of cheap labor on a worldwide scale, we'll all be paying full price for our crap in the future.  When that happens a world perma-recession may commence and never end.

I've heard perma-recession comments before, in my 1st year economics class. The teacher smacked that down quick.

Do you remember (in broad terms) roughly what the teacher said?  I'd be interested in hearing why the economists think that's bullshiat.




Because permanent recessions would require static conditions. We are nowhere near having purely (or remotely) static conditions. That's the broad view, he went into more detail about changes in technology, society, et al. Some of it being disruptive, other bits being supportive.
 
2013-08-03 11:58:12 PM
The problem of no cheap labor and switching to robots to produce everything, is that there's no definable reason for the potential consumers of those products to have money to buy those items.

What happens to the potentially millions, if not billions, of humans that will eventually have no reason to really do anything because machines can do it all for them, and they only need to shove in some factory-food each day to keep alive?
 If robots can produce everything, and nobody has any money, the whole capitalist system collapses, because people without money can't "consume" and the profiteers can't profit because they already own everything, and potential buyers have no money unless the profiteers simply give it to them, for doing nothing in exchange.


I realize that ideal is the Star Trek way where nobody has to work unless they want to, but in real life we are all greedy "I got mine so fark you".

I generally expect all nations that reach this point or get close to it, will eventually start doing forced sterilizations at birth, or the one-child policy like China, to reduce the burden of these useless sacks of human flesh that exist for no particular reason.
 
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