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(Talking Points Memo)   Top GOP: Pass immigration reform. We need to stay in power. Congress: Immigration reform? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances of reelection   (livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com) divider line 38
    More: Interesting, GOP, congresses, immigration reform, Republican, Vice President Dan Quayle, reforms  
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1877 clicks; posted to Politics » on 30 Jul 2013 at 10:23 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



38 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2013-07-30 09:10:12 AM
Who is Luke in this equation?
 
2013-07-30 09:14:50 AM

SilentStrider: Who is Luke in this equation?


The Mexicans, I guess Gerrymandering would be the death star that they are going to blow to pieces.
 
2013-07-30 09:15:14 AM

SilentStrider: Who is Luke in this equation?


Obama? Or is he more Obi-Wan

/Boehner, if you impeach me, the democrats will be more popular than you could possibly imagine
 
2013-07-30 09:30:42 AM
24.media.tumblr.com
 
2013-07-30 09:39:05 AM
As long as:
1) they are in districts which are drawn to have majority Republican support,
2) they are at greater risk within their district from a primary challenge from the right than a general election challenge from the left,

the House will never vote for any sort of reform*, nor would they be beholden to any of the top GOP donors.

* The exception, I guess, would be if the House says that they're going to do piecemeal reform and then broke it down to different pieces. Of course, in this case, the most likely thing that's going to happen is that they'll pass the bills that close the borders or build a big wall, but they'll kill the bills for everything else. And for them, that's going to be reform enough.
 
2013-07-30 10:16:27 AM
It's not impossible. I used to bullseye Congresscritters in my district back home, they're not much bigger than two meters.
 
2013-07-30 10:21:55 AM
You're all clear kid!  Now let's blow this thing and go home!
 
2013-07-30 10:23:32 AM
images4.wikia.nocookie.net

ben kenobi? i wonder if he means old ben kenobi.
 
2013-07-30 10:27:35 AM
They rely on AM radio and "grassroots" dullards for funding now, this will have little impact on the people that need to be impacted.
 
2013-07-30 10:31:17 AM

RexTalionis: As long as:
1) they are in districts which are drawn to have majority Republican support,
2) they are at greater risk within their district from a primary challenge from the right than a general election challenge from the left,

the House will never vote for any sort of reform*, nor would they be beholden to any of the top GOP donors.

* The exception, I guess, would be if the House says that they're going to do piecemeal reform and then broke it down to different pieces. Of course, in this case, the most likely thing that's going to happen is that they'll pass the bills that close the borders or build a big wall, but they'll kill the bills for everything else. And for them, that's going to be reform enough.


If they aren't satisfied with rebuilding the Berlin Wall or the Korean DMZ across the US-Mexico border like the Senate bill ostensibly will do, nothing will ever satisfy them in this respect.
 
Bf+
2013-07-30 10:40:27 AM
rickbakas.com
 
2013-07-30 10:43:45 AM
The Critters will fall in line if their personal slush funds depend on it. Right now the Top GOP doesn't really want this to pass, they just want to look like they want it to pass.
 
2013-07-30 10:54:11 AM
i.imgur.com
 
2013-07-30 10:55:30 AM

somedude210: SilentStrider: Who is Luke in this equation?

Obama? Or is he more Obi-Wan

/Boehner, if you impeach me, the democrats will be more popular than you could possibly imagine


For some reason I see Obama as Han Solo here.
 
2013-07-30 11:07:44 AM

RexTalionis: * The exception, I guess, would be if the House says that they're going to do piecemeal reform and then broke it down to different pieces. Of course, in this case, the most likely thing that's going to happen is that they'll pass the bills that close the borders or build a big wall, but they'll kill the bills for everything else. And for them, that's going to be reform enough.


It seems to me that that's exactly what they plan to do.
 
2013-07-30 11:08:52 AM

bdub77: It's not impossible. I used to bullseye Congresscritters in my district back home, they're not much bigger than two meters.


Maryland scoffs at your average congresscritters.
Tom McMillen: 2.11m (6'11"), retired.
Barbara Mikulski 1.5m (4'11"), still serving.  Still liberal (look at the vanishing liberal...)
 
2013-07-30 11:10:55 AM
For some reason I see Obama as Han Solo here.PUNCH IT, BIDEN!
 
2013-07-30 11:14:23 AM
Yeah, gerrymandering will work for a while - and I guess that's the party with NO forward thinking plan.  I don't know how they can continue to keep drawing smaller and smaller Republican only or Republican majority districts as they (a) alienate everyone not an old, white male (b) continue to defy demographics.  I think you'll see congressional representatives start to lose seats by 2016 in what were supposedly safe Republican districts.  That invisible gerrymander wall won't keep everyone out forever, unless they are allowed to support districts of increasingly smaller percentages of constituents.
 
2013-07-30 11:22:01 AM
A politics thread with Star Wars references?  Count me in.

somedude210: /Boehner, if you impeach me, the democrats will be more popular than you could possibly imagine


Heh.

RexTalionis: the House will never vote for any sort of reform*, nor would they be beholden to any of the top GOP donors.


Save for the fact that a lot of that sweet campaign money comes from the top dogs.  Case in point:  Rand Paul's coming to NY for said money...the same Rand Paul that voted "no" for Sandy funding.  I hope some GOP donor basically goes "Fark you!" to his face...or punches his lights out.  Not expecting it...but one can hope.
 
2013-07-30 11:30:22 AM

DarnoKonrad:


First, that is awesome.

This is why gerrymandering is bad (for any party). Sell me on your plan to govern, not your plan to ensure you always stay in power.
 
2013-07-30 11:43:37 AM

DarnoKonrad: [i.imgur.com image 475x546]


"TK-42-Juan, why aren't you at your post?"
 
2013-07-30 11:47:10 AM

Bill the unknowing: Yeah, gerrymandering will work for a while - and I guess that's the party with NO forward thinking plan.  I don't know how they can continue to keep drawing smaller and smaller Republican only or Republican majority districts as they (a) alienate everyone not an old, white male (b) continue to defy demographics.  I think you'll see congressional representatives start to lose seats by 2016 in what were supposedly safe Republican districts.  That invisible gerrymander wall won't keep everyone out forever, unless they are allowed to support districts of increasingly smaller percentages of constituents.


See all you have to do is Gerrymander all the Democrats into, like 100% Democrat districts and Gerrymander the rest into 60/40 GOP/Democrat districts. Sure, you're going to lose the Democrat districts forever, but if you can stop the Democrats in your 60/40 districts from voting and rally your GOP base to vote, even if you get a bare plurality the GOP still comes out ahead.
 
2013-07-30 11:47:33 AM

somedude210: For some reason I see Obama as Han Solo here.PUNCH IT, BIDEN!


goddamn, mobile formatting fails big time

[to Hillary]: Let's blow this Bill and go home!
 
2013-07-30 11:52:51 AM
Losing the minority vote is a big concern for Republicans, but perhaps their biggest demographic problem is young people. Young people simply don't care about the same things the GOP does, and even if they self-identify as conservative, many are loathe to associate themselves with the GOP. Gerrymandering the Mexicans away will only work for so long, and it ignores the bigger problems.
 
2013-07-30 12:01:12 PM

tortilla burger: Losing the minority vote is a big concern for Republicans, but perhaps their biggest demographic problem is young people. Young people simply don't care about the same things the GOP does, and even if they self-identify as conservative, many are loathe to associate themselves with the GOP. Gerrymandering the Mexicans away will only work for so long, and it ignores the bigger problems.


I keep thinking that. But at the local level, these republicans are going to make picaso like territories where they have their conclave of white people who will always vote for them, meanwhile, they will have the minority heavy areas turn into 1 giant area.
 
2013-07-30 12:37:26 PM
The more you tighten your grip, the more will slip through your fingers...

/cont. paraphrasing
 
2013-07-30 12:40:57 PM
Isn't the Congress actually the House AND the Senate?

'Cause most of the nutters are in the House.

The Senate (not generally being subject to gerrymandering) is far more rational. Although in these times that isn't saying much.
 
2013-07-30 01:01:51 PM

Dubya's_Coke_Dealer: 'Cause most of the nutters are in the House.

The Senate (not generally being subject to gerrymandering) is far more rational. Although in these times that isn't saying much.


yes, but it still has to go through the House before it goes to Obama. That's never going to happen. Therefore, you can say that Congress won't pass it.

that and everyone, especially the media, calls the House "Congress"
 
2013-07-30 02:11:09 PM
Obama is clearly Lando

...in that they are both leaders.


...what, why else would I have said that?
 
2013-07-30 03:09:39 PM
I love the House GOP. Too stupid to Lead, but hilarious to watch.
 
2013-07-30 03:15:54 PM
This pretty much summarizes the GOP's problem.  There are reasonable people (whom their opponents still dislike, obviously, but, y'know, because of disagreement rather than complete nutjobbery) who are in fact in internal party leadership positions... but the bulk of the party is following the nutjobs that don't actually take any responsibility for running the party at a practical level instead.

I mean, my sympathy is somewhat limited, since it's their own damned fault for inviting the churches in in the '80s (following the stupidest dipshiat you can find instead of the people actually keeping it together and then acting innocently surprised when it all goes to shiat is basically American Protestantism 101), but still, sucks to be the rest of us while they finally lose control for good.
 
2013-07-30 03:17:43 PM
Can someone explain to me how immigration reform, amnesty, dream act, whatever - would actually help Republicans?

I mean the leadership wants it, but do they honestly think that all these new voters will pull the 'R' lever?

Just seems like they want to commit party suicide a bit earlier if you ask me.
 
2013-07-30 03:34:47 PM

moanerific: Can someone explain to me how immigration reform, amnesty, dream act, whatever - would actually help Republicans?

I mean the leadership wants it, but do they honestly think that all these new voters will pull the 'R' lever?

Just seems like they want to commit party suicide a bit earlier if you ask me.


I'll quote John McCain here since he basically said exactly what I think (italicized emphasis my own):

"Let's say we enact it, comprehensive immigration reform - I don't think it gains a single Hispanic voter, but what it does, it puts us on a playing field where we can compete for the Hispanic voter. If we don't do that, frankly, I don't see - I see further polarization of the Hispanic voter and the demographics are clear that the Republican Party cannot win a national election. That's just a fact."

In short, it's hard to convince John Doe to vote for you if John believes you think he's subhuman. It's much easier if John Doe feels like you and he are equally human.
 
2013-07-30 03:46:19 PM

Serious Black: moanerific: Can someone explain to me how immigration reform, amnesty, dream act, whatever - would actually help Republicans?

I mean the leadership wants it, but do they honestly think that all these new voters will pull the 'R' lever?

Just seems like they want to commit party suicide a bit earlier if you ask me.

I'll quote John McCain here since he basically said exactly what I think (italicized emphasis my own):

"Let's say we enact it, comprehensive immigration reform - I don't think it gains a single Hispanic voter, but what it does, it puts us on a playing field where we can compete for the Hispanic voter. If we don't do that, frankly, I don't see - I see further polarization of the Hispanic voter and the demographics are clear that the Republican Party cannot win a national election. That's just a fact."

In short, it's hard to convince John Doe to vote for you if John believes you think he's subhuman. It's much easier if John Doe feels like you and he are equally human.


So the Republicans will in essence, have to commit party suicide.  Once the insane members are all voted out and they get their asses handed to them for a few cycles, maybe then they can get some of the Hispanic vote?
 
2013-07-30 03:58:23 PM

moanerific: Serious Black: moanerific: Can someone explain to me how immigration reform, amnesty, dream act, whatever - would actually help Republicans?

I mean the leadership wants it, but do they honestly think that all these new voters will pull the 'R' lever?

Just seems like they want to commit party suicide a bit earlier if you ask me.

I'll quote John McCain here since he basically said exactly what I think (italicized emphasis my own):

"Let's say we enact it, comprehensive immigration reform - I don't think it gains a single Hispanic voter, but what it does, it puts us on a playing field where we can compete for the Hispanic voter. If we don't do that, frankly, I don't see - I see further polarization of the Hispanic voter and the demographics are clear that the Republican Party cannot win a national election. That's just a fact."

In short, it's hard to convince John Doe to vote for you if John believes you think he's subhuman. It's much easier if John Doe feels like you and he are equally human.

So the Republicans will in essence, have to commit party suicide.  Once the insane members are all voted out and they get their asses handed to them for a few cycles, maybe then they can get some of the Hispanic vote?


I don't think their voting for an immigration reform package that includes a path to citizenship would be committing suicide. The people who would become citizens as a result of the package would only get their citizenship in, what, ten years? And I think there are very few Republicans so adamantly against the path to citizenship that they'd successfully primary their representative solely because of a vote for said path. Hell, a majority of Steve King's constituents support a path to citizenship!
 
2013-07-30 10:05:48 PM

tortilla burger: Losing the minority vote is a big concern for Republicans, but perhaps their biggest demographic problem is young people. Young people simply don't care about the same things the GOP does, and even if they self-identify as conservative, many are loathe to associate themselves with the GOP. Gerrymandering the Mexicans away will only work for so long, and it ignores the bigger problems.


Don't forget, for people under 18, white will be minority very soon.
 
2013-07-30 11:33:21 PM

moanerific: Serious Black: moanerific: Can someone explain to me how immigration reform, amnesty, dream act, whatever - would actually help Republicans?

I mean the leadership wants it, but do they honestly think that all these new voters will pull the 'R' lever?

Just seems like they want to commit party suicide a bit earlier if you ask me.

I'll quote John McCain here since he basically said exactly what I think (italicized emphasis my own):

"Let's say we enact it, comprehensive immigration reform - I don't think it gains a single Hispanic voter, but what it does, it puts us on a playing field where we can compete for the Hispanic voter. If we don't do that, frankly, I don't see - I see further polarization of the Hispanic voter and the demographics are clear that the Republican Party cannot win a national election. That's just a fact."

In short, it's hard to convince John Doe to vote for you if John believes you think he's subhuman. It's much easier if John Doe feels like you and he are equally human.

So the Republicans will in essence, have to commit party suicide.  Once the insane members are all voted out and they get their asses handed to them for a few cycles, maybe then they can get some of the Hispanic vote?


Maybe I'm just a cynic, but I think most of the cold calculation the Republicans are doing about minority outreach have more to do with gaining support from white moderates/independents than actual minority votes.  They might not get many minority votes, but they'll have a better shot with moderates/independents who like some of the GOP platform but just can't get on board with open hostility to minorities (like the Buchananite wing of the GOP that wants to end legal immigration).
 
2013-07-31 06:43:22 AM

RexTalionis: 2) they are at greater risk within their district from a primary challenge from the right than a general election challenge from the left,


I have to wonder if at some point the money people will figure enduring a couple of years of a Democratic Congress is a better long term investment than funding cowards who run from a primary challenger. In other words, they make them fear the latter more than the former by finding centrist Democrats who can win given enough resources.
 
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