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(Marketwatch)   Tech stocks? It's time to sell   (marketwatch.com) divider line 32
    More: Obvious, Both Google Inc., Microsoft, chipotles, Surface RT  
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919 clicks; posted to Business » on 21 Jul 2013 at 11:31 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



32 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2013-07-21 06:27:37 AM  
The day after MSFT drops 11.4%?  Brilliant prognostication.  The time to sell was Thursday.
 
2013-07-21 10:09:56 AM  
www.internetmonk.com
 
2013-07-21 10:13:17 AM  
piggington.com
 
2013-07-21 12:01:28 PM  
"Tech stocks" as a basket?  If you own a tech ETF, I'd say sell. You get too much bad with the good.  But individual tech stocks will be some of the best performers over the next few years.
 
2013-07-21 12:34:32 PM  
EVERYBODY PANIC!!!!
 
2013-07-21 12:50:32 PM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: "Tech stocks" as a basket?  If you own a tech ETF, I'd say sell. You get too much bad with the good.  But individual tech stocks will be some of the best performers over the next few years.


This. Netflix is going to perform very differently than BlackBerry over the next few years, so you just can't lump them all together. It's like during the tech crash of the 90s. You were screwed if you bought Pets.com but not so much if you went for Apple and Amazon.
 
2013-07-21 01:37:14 PM  
I bought small allotments of goog, msft, and amzn in the last year. With 'I can't retire for 20 more years, let's see if I get lucky' money. Wake me up in about fifteen years.
 
2013-07-21 02:43:55 PM  
Apple is totally undervalued. The only reason their stock is down so much is because there hasn't been a new product in a while. When the much rumored iWatch finally comes out, it's going to break all kinds of sales records and they'll be back on top.

Netflix is overvalued -- investors are acting like they've cornered the original content online TV show market when they don't even have a dozen shows. The fact they have to produce original shows because there is so much competition in the streaming business is a huge problem for them -- there's a lot more risk in that the just licensing huge chunks of a studios move and TV catalogue.
 
2013-07-21 03:12:35 PM  
Do these stupid duel postings ever generate any hits?  It seems all they accomplish is giving some friend of a fat, worthless mod two extra posts for their profile.
 
2013-07-21 03:53:25 PM  
buy fas it keeps going up
 
2013-07-21 04:03:42 PM  
Both Seagate and Western Digital had ridiculously low P/E ratios as the market became too worried about what "the cloud" would do to hard drives.  I think they're still undervalued and anything with the word cloud in it is overvalued.
 
2013-07-21 04:11:21 PM  

MabalzIzari: EVERYBODY PANIC!!!!


Buy gun stocks.  Especially S&W.  They're going up faster than Paris Hilton's panties go down
 
2013-07-21 04:16:44 PM  

Rapmaster2000: Both Seagate and Western Digital had ridiculously low P/E ratios as the market became too worried about what "the cloud" would do to hard drives.  I think they're still undervalued and anything with the word cloud in it is overvalued.


The thing is all of those cloud-based storage companies need to buy hard drives for their servers, so those vendors still win either way. In fact, they can probably charge more for the server-grade hard drives the cloud storage providers will be buying. Cloud storage doesn't removes the need for hard drives, it just changes where those hard drives are located.

What really hurt Seagate and WD were the floods in SE Asia that drive hard drive prices through the roof. Instead of paying exorbitant prices for drives, most people like me just put off buying new drives until the prices got back to normal, which really put a huge damper on hard drives sales for a while. To add insult to injury, SSD prices started dropping significantly around the same time, so the switch from platter based to flash based drives started about a year earlier than it would have had the floods not driven up the platter based hard drive pricing. There will still be a need to platter based drives for storing and archiving large amounts of data, but SSDs are going to supplant the platter-based drives for the majority of computers very quickly, which leaves WD and Seagate in a bad place because they don't have much of a presence in the SSD market.
 
2013-07-21 04:33:13 PM  

JohnBigBootay: I bought small allotments of goog, msft, and amzn in the last year. With 'I can't retire for 20 more years, let's see if I get lucky' money. Wake me up in about fifteen years.


I wish you well. 18 years I ago did the same with Oracle, IBM, and Microsoft. They may help me retire in a year or two. I was too impatient with Amazon, holding onto that would have helped me retire yesterday.

I did pick a few losers, but the above and a few other non-tech stocks more than made up for them.

/This is just "gambling money" that I can afford to lose
//Index funds for 95% of my stuff
 
2013-07-21 05:29:19 PM  
the stock market has become like a Vegas craps table.  the only sure thing is that the House (Owners) will always win in the long haul.

and the Deregulation of Wall street has made it so much nicer/easy for the House.  they do appreciate it.
 
2013-07-21 06:06:42 PM  
*scratches head*

Why on earth would you invest in a sector instead of in an actual company?

I mean, I short index funds all the time... but I  never buy and hold an index.  fark that.  Only invest on a companies merit.  Good companies will make money in poor market conditions.
 
2013-07-21 06:30:53 PM  

Nemo's Brother: Do these stupid duel postings ever generate any hits?  It seems all they accomplish is giving some friend of a fat, worthless mod two extra posts for their profile.


Wow ... It's definitely time to switch over to decaf. You'll find it's the same price at 7-Eleven.
 
2013-07-21 07:03:56 PM  

thornhill: Apple is totally undervalued. The only reason their stock is down so much is because there hasn't been a new product in a while. When the much rumored iWatch finally comes out, it's going to break all kinds of sales records and they'll be back on top.

Netflix is overvalued -- investors are acting like they've cornered the original content online TV show market when they don't even have a dozen shows. The fact they have to produce original shows because there is so much competition in the streaming business is a huge problem for them -- there's a lot more risk in that the just licensing huge chunks of a studios move and TV catalogue.


Right. The watch will do it. And they stock decline has nothing to do with their third consecutive of declining profit growth. ( 70, 40, 20, 11... Hey bob, what's that train doing? Dunno Jim, looks like it's slowing down to me.)
 
2013-07-21 07:06:18 PM  

wombatsrus: JohnBigBootay: I bought small allotments of goog, msft, and amzn in the last year. With 'I can't retire for 20 more years, let's see if I get lucky' money. Wake me up in about fifteen years.

I wish you well. 18 years I ago did the same with Oracle, IBM, and Microsoft. They may help me retire in a year or two. I was too impatient with Amazon, holding onto that would have helped me retire yesterday.

I did pick a few losers, but the above and a few other non-tech stocks more than made up for them.

/This is just "gambling money" that I can afford to lose
//Index funds for 95% of my stuff


Exactly. My core retirement funds are ultra low expense total market indexes.

(.07% expense ratio)
 
2013-07-21 07:45:07 PM  

Principal Clarinet: Nemo's Brother: Do these stupid duel postings ever generate any hits?  It seems all they accomplish is giving some friend of a fat, worthless mod two extra posts for their profile.

Wow ... It's definitely time to switch over to decaf. You'll find it's the same price at 7-Eleven.


yeah let me drink some non-drugafied poop water.  yeah 3.99 that's a great deal for shiat.
 
2013-07-21 08:17:03 PM  
People who think Microsoft is down and out are the same people who said Apple Computer was down and out in 1996.
 
2013-07-21 08:45:15 PM  

JohnBigBootay: thornhill: Apple is totally undervalued. The only reason their stock is down so much is because there hasn't been a new product in a while. When the much rumored iWatch finally comes out, it's going to break all kinds of sales records and they'll be back on top.

Netflix is overvalued -- investors are acting like they've cornered the original content online TV show market when they don't even have a dozen shows. The fact they have to produce original shows because there is so much competition in the streaming business is a huge problem for them -- there's a lot more risk in that the just licensing huge chunks of a studios move and TV catalogue.

Right. The watch will do it. And they stock decline has nothing to do with their third consecutive of declining profit growth. ( 70, 40, 20, 11... Hey bob, what's that train doing? Dunno Jim, looks like it's slowing down to me.)



Sure, but in the low $400's it seems to be priced for disaster, not just lower growth. Even assuming that a train that slows down never speeds up again, and the new iWhatever isn't going to launch the stock, the current situation is a P/E around what, 7 or 8 ex-cash? And there's a 2.8% dividend at ~20% payout ratio (plus massive buyback).
 
2013-07-21 08:53:46 PM  

thornhill: Apple is totally undervalued. The only reason their stock is down so much is because there hasn't been a new product in a while. When the much rumored iWatch finally comes out, it's going to break all kinds of sales records and they'll be back on top.


Younger people don't wear watches anymore. I can't imagine anything Apple could put in an iWatch to make people want to wear one, given that people already have all the computation that they want in their smartphone.
 
2013-07-21 09:14:02 PM  

skazzytl: thornhill: Apple is totally undervalued. The only reason their stock is down so much is because there hasn't been a new product in a while. When the much rumored iWatch finally comes out, it's going to break all kinds of sales records and they'll be back on top.

Younger people don't wear watches anymore. I can't imagine anything Apple could put in an iWatch to make people want to wear one, given that people already have all the computation that they want in their smartphone.


If Apple's watch isn't also a phone, it will fail.  People don't want multiple devices anymore, the days of wearing a watch, carrying a phone, a PDA, and a pager are over.  Other than constant monitoring of your blood pressure and heart rate, I'm not sure what a watch buys you.  You can't really wear a useable screen on your wrist constantly, and if you really wanted a use wrist phone occasionally, I guess you could make a velcro wrist band for any current smart phone.
 
2013-07-21 09:23:55 PM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: skazzytl: thornhill: Apple is totally undervalued. The only reason their stock is down so much is because there hasn't been a new product in a while. When the much rumored iWatch finally comes out, it's going to break all kinds of sales records and they'll be back on top.

Younger people don't wear watches anymore. I can't imagine anything Apple could put in an iWatch to make people want to wear one, given that people already have all the computation that they want in their smartphone.

If Apple's watch isn't also a phone, it will fail.  People don't want multiple devices anymore, the days of wearing a watch, carrying a phone, a PDA, and a pager are over.  Other than constant monitoring of your blood pressure and heart rate, I'm not sure what a watch buys you.  You can't really wear a useable screen on your wrist constantly, and if you really wanted a use wrist phone occasionally, I guess you could make a velcro wrist band for any current smart phone.


I can't see why I would want one, but a few years back I said the same thing about the iPad (WTF, an iPhone that won't fit in my pocket and doesn't work as a phone?)
 
2013-07-21 09:44:47 PM  

thornhill: When the much rumored iWatch finally comes out, it's going to break all kinds of sales records and they'll be back on top.


I know I'm going to sound like the guy who said the iPod was dumb, and the iPhone was too big, and the iPad had a silly name, but I can't fathom how Apple is going to sell a hundred million iWatches, which is what they'd have to do to make a sizeable increase in their profits.

What is it going to do? Some people buy watches as fashion accessories, and they aren't going to suddenly switch from a Rolex to an iWatch. Other people want a watch to tell time, and they aren't going to switch from a $20 Timex to an iWatch that just has a fancier screen. The rest of us don't even wear watches because we have phones in our pocket anyway.

Is it going to be a phone? People are shifting away from talking on their phone and want a big screen to text, watch videos, and browse the web. That won't work on a watch. Can it be an external display connected to your phone? Absolutely, just like the Kickstarter Pebble thing. I just can't fathom how it would sell enough to be more than a gimmick, unless they have something up their sleeves that I haven't imagined. And no, it won't sell a hundred million just "because it's Apple." There are plenty of Apple products that don't sell that well because they don't have a killer feature (Apple TV, I'm looking at you...).
 
2013-07-21 10:01:02 PM  

Monkeyfark Ridiculous: JohnBigBootay: thornhill: Apple is totally undervalued. The only reason their stock is down so much is because there hasn't been a new product in a while. When the much rumored iWatch finally comes out, it's going to break all kinds of sales records and they'll be back on top.

Netflix is overvalued -- investors are acting like they've cornered the original content online TV show market when they don't even have a dozen shows. The fact they have to produce original shows because there is so much competition in the streaming business is a huge problem for them -- there's a lot more risk in that the just licensing huge chunks of a studios move and TV catalogue.

Right. The watch will do it. And they stock decline has nothing to do with their third consecutive of declining profit growth. ( 70, 40, 20, 11... Hey bob, what's that train doing? Dunno Jim, looks like it's slowing down to me.)


Sure, but in the low $400's it seems to be priced for disaster, not just lower growth. Even assuming that a train that slows down never speeds up again, and the new iWhatever isn't going to launch the stock, the current situation is a P/E around what, 7 or 8 ex-cash? And there's a 2.8% dividend at ~20% payout ratio (plus massive buyback).


It's not at all priced for disaster. It's priced like a company whose profits primarily come from a sector with plenty of worthy competitors unlike the early days of iPhone. It's a great company and a fine stock to hold. Investors are just discovering the same thing investors in IBM and ge and msft found out a long time ago. Competition is a biatch. Once you are that freakin' huge, growing profits is tough. It's hell just to keep pace. Investors are looking for profit growth and there are easier places to find out than apple. Dividends are great but when the board broke with jobs and started offering them, that should have been the first warning sign.
 
2013-07-21 10:30:27 PM  

thornhill: When the much rumored iWatch finally comes out, it's going to break all kinds of sales records and they'll be back on top.


I don't buy it.  I think it will be a big meh.  They might still do well if they can get a real office suite together and take advantage of MS walking around with their nutsack hanging out.

Netflix is overvalued -

Oh, yeah.  They're making bad decisions, and the execution of their good decisions suck (Arrested development).  I think Amazon will kick everyone's ass in streaming for a while.  Sony will continue to fail hard, inexplicably.
 
2013-07-21 11:03:33 PM  

Bacontastesgood: Oh, yeah.  They're making bad decisions, and the execution of their good decisions suck (Arrested development).  I think Amazon will kick everyone's ass in streaming for a while.  Sony will continue to fail hard, inexplicably.


Sony makes great products, but outside of the gaming sector, they don't know how to market their products the correct way to the consumers. They already came out with a smart watch and their smartphone is better than Samsung. They need a better ad agency.
 
2013-07-21 11:12:45 PM  

JohnBigBootay: Monkeyfark Ridiculous: JohnBigBootay: thornhill: Apple is totally undervalued. The only reason their stock is down so much is because there hasn't been a new product in a while. When the much rumored iWatch finally comes out, it's going to break all kinds of sales records and they'll be back on top.

Netflix is overvalued -- investors are acting like they've cornered the original content online TV show market when they don't even have a dozen shows. The fact they have to produce original shows because there is so much competition in the streaming business is a huge problem for them -- there's a lot more risk in that the just licensing huge chunks of a studios move and TV catalogue.

Right. The watch will do it. And they stock decline has nothing to do with their third consecutive of declining profit growth. ( 70, 40, 20, 11... Hey bob, what's that train doing? Dunno Jim, looks like it's slowing down to me.)


Sure, but in the low $400's it seems to be priced for disaster, not just lower growth. Even assuming that a train that slows down never speeds up again, and the new iWhatever isn't going to launch the stock, the current situation is a P/E around what, 7 or 8 ex-cash? And there's a 2.8% dividend at ~20% payout ratio (plus massive buyback).

It's not at all priced for disaster. It's priced like a company whose profits primarily come from a sector with plenty of worthy competitors unlike the early days of iPhone. It's a great company and a fine stock to hold. Investors are just discovering the same thing investors in IBM and ge and msft found out a long time ago. Competition is a biatch. Once you are that freakin' huge, growing profits is tough. It's hell just to keep pace. Investors are looking for profit growth and there are easier places to find out than apple. Dividends are great but when the board broke with jobs and started offering them, that should have been the first warning sign.


I think we mostly agree. I just think the price drop has been overdone. If Apple's ex-cash multiple were similar to the likes of IBM/GE/MSFT/Dell/Sony, the price would be something like 50-100% higher than it is today (not saying that's the right price, but). And that's without crediting the possibility of another successful iWidget, which I wouldn't completely write off.
 
2013-07-22 07:38:16 AM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: skazzytl: thornhill: Apple is totally undervalued. The only reason their stock is down so much is because there hasn't been a new product in a while. When the much rumored iWatch finally comes out, it's going to break all kinds of sales records and they'll be back on top.

Younger people don't wear watches anymore. I can't imagine anything Apple could put in an iWatch to make people want to wear one, given that people already have all the computation that they want in their smartphone.

If Apple's watch isn't also a phone, it will fail.  People don't want multiple devices anymore, the days of wearing a watch, carrying a phone, a PDA, and a pager are over.  Other than constant monitoring of your blood pressure and heart rate, I'm not sure what a watch buys you.  You can't really wear a useable screen on your wrist constantly, and if you really wanted a use wrist phone occasionally, I guess you could make a velcro wrist band for any current smart phone.


If the iWatch isn't a phone, it'll be an undersized Blackberry Playbook with less features.

Apple could corner the old folks market with an iWatch that simply does PTT, news, weather, sports, and telephone. It would be something like the Dick Tracy communicator.
 
2013-07-22 09:36:15 AM  

Funk Brothers: People who think Microsoft is down and out are the same people who said Apple Computer was down and out in 1996.


Apple was loved and admired, MS is just hated and has nothing. It is going down, about time....
 
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