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(Marketwatch)   Dow crashing 65% to 5,000? Thanks to the brilliance of Ben Bernanke's Quantitative Easing, 1929 redux is just around the corner. And a drop of 65% is the *optimistic* forecast... some with a track record of being right are predicting even more   (marketwatch.com) divider line 100
    More: Scary, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, quantitative easing, Dan Ariely, behavioral economics, adjusted basis, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Daniel Kahneman, amygdalas  
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5249 clicks; posted to Business » on 20 Jul 2013 at 2:12 PM (50 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-07-20 01:26:44 PM
Yes, Ben Bernake is the only possible reason something like that could happen.  I guess he used Obama's magic time machine to go back to 1929 and crash the economy then too, right?
 
2013-07-20 01:39:46 PM
SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) Critical warning No. 17? Lost count?
We've been reporting these warnings, maybe 20 this year alone.


Counting is hard.
 
2013-07-20 01:59:00 PM
As if to punctuate his new warning, Burnham's PBS editor added this postscript: "Over the weekend at ZeroHedge.com, the gloomiest of all gloomsters

farm4.staticflickr.com
 
2013-07-20 02:13:15 PM
 the gloomiest of all gloomsters, Tyler Durden,"

Because if you can't trust Ed Norton's imaginary friend for financial advice, who can you trust?
 
2013-07-20 02:13:43 PM
These are the Lizard People they warned us about.  We're through the looking glass people!!!
 
2013-07-20 02:19:38 PM
Didn't ZeroHedge.com predicted Tesla to file for bankruptcy and Romney to win the election?

People who think the Dow crashing 65% to 5000 this year are morons. The only that's been falling this year is gold and I bet they're all butthurt that gold is falling. Everyone is parking their money in the stock market instead of gold or bonds right now because QE is coming to an end soon.
 
2013-07-20 02:32:59 PM
FFS, I don't know which is worse  - the warning of imminent economic collapse, or the author's writing style.
 
2013-07-20 02:41:17 PM
Well I believe him, though not really clear on the underlying calculus. All I know is that when you look at Defense stocks today from last summer, they've all doubled in stock price, DESPITE sequestration and the winding down of two wars ripping the air out of their sails (sales). There is absolutely NO REASON for these stocks to double in the course of a year when production and growth have not come close to that performance. Not saying Defense is the only industry affected, just the only one I've been looking at. Those stock prices are going to collapse, period. Don't know when or what will be the catalyst, but can guarantee you they'll fall, and fall hard.
 
2013-07-20 02:42:47 PM

BKITU: As if to punctuate his new warning, Burnham's PBS editor added this postscript: "Over the weekend at ZeroHedge.com, the gloomiest of all gloomsters

[Stopped Reading There]


mw2.wsj.net

ByPaul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

farm4.staticflickr.com

He's been predicting an imminent second stock market crash, the collapse of capitalism, and the utter destruction of America as we know it since 2010.

On the other hand, he does have a point about the harmful effects of super-concentration of wealth and the undue influence of monied interests in our political system.
 
2013-07-20 02:43:03 PM
Probably shouldnt stake so much of the economy on stocks and investment huh?
 
2013-07-20 02:47:34 PM
That looks legit.
 
2013-07-20 02:49:04 PM
Dow crashing 65% to 5,000?

Good, then maybe those farkers will jump since they refuse to recognize that a booming stock market is only vaguely related to an economy's overall health.
 
2013-07-20 02:50:11 PM

acchief: Well I believe him, though not really clear on the underlying calculus. All I know is that when you look at Defense stocks today from last summer, they've all doubled in stock price, DESPITE sequestration and the winding down of two wars ripping the air out of their sails (sales). There is absolutely NO REASON for these stocks to double in the course of a year when production and growth have not come close to that performance. Not saying Defense is the only industry affected, just the only one I've been looking at. Those stock prices are going to collapse, period. Don't know when or what will be the catalyst, but can guarantee you they'll fall, and fall hard.


Those companies value is based on future earnings potential.  Our military is going to replace expensive salary and benefit obligations (people) with expensive robots (products).  Its a farking  great time to be a defense contractor.

Hell, I'd probably retool my own company to manufacture death machines if I had the slightest clue how to go about securing military contracts.
 
2013-07-20 02:51:58 PM
I'm in favor of this. Just think of the amazing bargains we'll be able to pick up - Google at $20 a share? Costco at $5? It would be awesome.

Or not, hell, I'm not an economist.
 
2013-07-20 02:55:09 PM
Alonjar:
Hell, I'd probably retool my own company to manufacture death machines if I had the slightest clue how to go about securing military contracts.

Step 1: Recruit a team of former high school cheerleaders as lobbyists. You'll face stiff competition from Big Pharma on this step.
Step 2: Send your lobbyist team to legislators, senators and general's offices wearing an outfit made of $100 bills and carrying a bag of cocaine.
Step 3: Profit
 
2013-07-20 02:57:10 PM
Stocks are 'terrible investments' today, so get out:
So my 401k is up 21.3% YTD.
While past performance does not predict future performance, I am invested in the long haul.

Buy and hold wins again
Oh look, another article linked on the same page.

The Signal and The Noise
I laughed while reading this book. The chapter on investmentreiterated what we have been told OVER and OVER. Without insideinformation, you can not beat buy and hold. The only people beating the average are members of congress. Strange, they wouldnt happen to have ANY inside information, would they?
 
2013-07-20 02:59:48 PM
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-and-hold-wins-again-2013-07-19?l i nk=MW_story_popular

I love when they give examples of people who CLAIMED to be great cause they called a crash and then missed the next crash.
Sorry but if your track record is 50/50, I am going to stay with buy and hold. Thanks!
 
2013-07-20 03:03:38 PM

Alonjar: acchief: Well I believe him, though not really clear on the underlying calculus. All I know is that when you look at Defense stocks today from last summer, they've all doubled in stock price, DESPITE sequestration and the winding down of two wars ripping the air out of their sails (sales). There is absolutely NO REASON for these stocks to double in the course of a year when production and growth have not come close to that performance. Not saying Defense is the only industry affected, just the only one I've been looking at. Those stock prices are going to collapse, period. Don't know when or what will be the catalyst, but can guarantee you they'll fall, and fall hard.

Those companies value is based on future earnings potential.  Our military is going to replace expensive salary and benefit obligations (people) with expensive robots (products).  Its a farking  great time to be a defense contractor.

Hell, I'd probably retool my own company to manufacture death machines if I had the slightest clue how to go about securing military contracts.


The majority of contracts I see coming out of the DoD right now are Foreign Military Sales (selling fighter jets to Saudi Arabia) and butts-n-seats work (providing people to sit at govt desks all day). In terms of replacing military personnel with machines, it's going to be more like replacing those personnel with commercial equivalents (a la Blackwater, et al). Without another major military action (read: War) that destroys our current arsenal to generate new demand, I don't see any kind of growth for the defense industry in the next year or two.

I have however seen a huge shift towards commercial sales for the Big Ones (Boeing, Lockheed, etc).

/in the industry
 
2013-07-20 03:04:17 PM
namatad:
The Signal and The Noise
I laughed while reading this book. The chapter on investmentreiterated what we have been told OVER and OVER. Without insideinformation, you can not beat buy and hold. The only people beating the average are members of congress. Strange, they wouldnt happen to have ANY inside information, would they?


Are congresspeople still specifically exempted from insider trading laws?
 
2013-07-20 03:04:36 PM

tnpir: I'm in favor of this. Just think of the amazing bargains we'll be able to pick up - Google at $20 a share? Costco at $5? It would be awesome.

Or not, hell, I'm not an economist.


That was my thought. I'm 40-45 years from retirement and have a bunch of money sitting around in my bank account. I'd rather invest while everyone else is shiatting bricks. C'mon. Burn everything down. Fark you, I'll get mine.
 
2013-07-20 03:08:32 PM
Came her for:
 

BKITU: As if to punctuate his new warning, Burnham's PBS editor added this postscript: "Over the weekend at ZeroHedge.com, the gloomiest of all gloomsters

[farm4.staticflickr.com image 250x272]


and

namatad: Stocks are 'terrible investments' today, so get out:
So my 401k is up 21.3% YTD.
While past performance does not predict future performance, I am invested in the long haul.

Buy and hold wins again
Oh look, another article linked on the same page.

The Signal and The Noise
I laughed while reading this book. The chapter on investmentreiterated what we have been told OVER and OVER. Without insideinformation, you can not beat buy and hold. The only people beating the average are members of congress. Strange, they wouldnt happen to have ANY inside information, would they?


Leaving satisfied.
 
2013-07-20 03:08:46 PM

namatad: Stocks are 'terrible investments' today, so get out:
So my 401k is up 21.3% YTD.
While past performance does not predict future performance, I am invested in the long haul.

Buy and hold wins again
Oh look, another article linked on the same page.

The Signal and The Noise
I laughed while reading this book. The chapter on investmentreiterated what we have been told OVER and OVER. Without insideinformation, you can not beat buy and hold. The only people beating the average are members of congress. Strange, they wouldnt happen to have ANY inside information, would they?


The House and Senate are specifically excluded from insider trading laws.
 
2013-07-20 03:08:59 PM

Target Builder: Are congresspeople still specifically exempted from insider trading laws?


Yes.  They went out of their way to "fix" that problem recently.
 
2013-07-20 03:11:44 PM

Target Builder: namatad:
The Signal and The Noise
I laughed while reading this book. The chapter on investmentreiterated what we have been told OVER and OVER. Without insideinformation, you can not beat buy and hold. The only people beating the average are members of congress. Strange, they wouldnt happen to have ANY inside information, would they?

Are congresspeople still specifically exempted from insider trading laws?


not sure that they are except, I do know that they removed a clause in a recent bill where they had to be completely transparent. I also know that I can not remember the last time that a congress critter was charged and convicted of inside trading. 
FARKERSSSSSSSSSSSSS

http://insidertrading.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=002391

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57323527/congress-trading-stoc k- on-inside-information/
 
2013-07-20 03:19:00 PM
He keeps talking about the warning signs all around but never mentions any.  Perhaps I missed them because of my lizard brain.

The '29 crash is much more similar to the recent real estate crash than the market today.  In 29 the market was fueled by borrowed money and as long as the market went up, the investors could make interest payments.  Same with the real estate bubble, as long as the market kept going up folks could re-finance ahead of their debts.

I just don't see the current market (which may be overvalued) dropping to 1/3 its current value even if the fed does stop pumping.  The market is going to drop like a rock when the fed does stop pumping because bond rates will rise and money that's in equities today will shift to bonds.  But I see that more as an opportunity to buy into the dip.
 
2013-07-20 03:25:41 PM
farm4.staticflickr.com
 
2013-07-20 03:32:21 PM
The US has discovered vast reserves of energy that are allowing us to move away from dependence on foreign sources.  That alone is a huge boost to the economy.  Anybody who thinks the market is crashing any time soon is delusional.  Most crops will have record outputs this year, price-to-earnings ratios are below averages, unemployment is going down.  What's not to love?
 
2013-07-20 03:32:59 PM
Dow crashing 65% to 5,000?


Top 10% Problem. Meanwhile, the rest of us are scrimping to buy a carton of eggs. Fark 'em.

/interesting game
//the only winning move is not to play
 
2013-07-20 03:38:43 PM
www.culture-games.com

Seriously, I have heard crazy people ranting at bus stops that made more sense and were more coherent than that.
 
2013-07-20 03:39:47 PM
I think the aw not this shiat again guy even tired of this
 
2013-07-20 03:52:02 PM
Sounds like somebody has another book for sale.
 
2013-07-20 04:05:03 PM

acchief: Well I believe him, though not really clear on the underlying calculus. All I know is that when you look at Defense stocks today from last summer, they've all doubled in stock price, DESPITE sequestration and the winding down of two wars ripping the air out of their sails (sales). There is absolutely NO REASON for these stocks to double in the course of a year when production and growth have not come close to that performance. Not saying Defense is the only industry affected, just the only one I've been looking at. Those stock prices are going to collapse, period. Don't know when or what will be the catalyst, but can guarantee you they'll fall, and fall hard.


Crashes are good because you can pick up the stock of strong companies cheaply when people start panic selling. Best time to buy McDonalds or Coca-cola is during a crash.
 
2013-07-20 04:07:17 PM

BKITU: As if to punctuate his new warning, Burnham's PBS editor added this postscript: "Over the weekend at ZeroHedge.com, the gloomiest of all gloomsters

[farm4.staticflickr.com image 250x272]


So what's up with ZeroHedge?  I was looking for a picture on the welfare cliff, took the first hit off Google, linked it, and got a bunch of hate for using ZeroHedge (despite having never knowingly been there before).
So what's the bias?  Communism, Capitalism, Collapse of capitalism leading to anarchy, Attractive and Successful in the White House, just plain crazy?  From the few articles I read, it mostly seemed to be:

"A combination of increasing welfare transfers to the poor combined with crony capitalism to the powerful rich elites are combining to crush the middle class and we can totally fix this by ending welfare and biatching about the crony capitalism".
 
2013-07-20 04:08:39 PM
Burnham's PBS editor added this postscript: "Over the weekend at http://ZeroHedge.com/

Laughter LOL

Wow.

Can you cite anything a little less crazy, like World Net Daily or the "Dr. Dre Controls Burning Man" guy?
 
2013-07-20 04:27:12 PM
A 64% crash is 43%, once again proving nature's harmonic simultaneous 4-day time cube.
 
2013-07-20 04:32:30 PM
Time to buy stock in the companies that make the JUMP YOU FARKERS signs
 
2013-07-20 04:32:33 PM

LouDobbsAwaaaay: A 64% crash is 43%, once again proving nature's harmonic simultaneous 4-day time cube.


I



I don't think 4% Xs 4% Xs 4% = 64%
 
2013-07-20 04:36:22 PM

acchief: Well I believe him, though not really clear on the underlying calculus. All I know is that when you look at Defense stocks today from last summer, they've all doubled in stock price, DESPITE sequestration and the winding down of two wars ripping the air out of their sails (sales). There is absolutely NO REASON for these stocks to double in the course of a year when production and growth have not come close to that performance. Not saying Defense is the only industry affected, just the only one I've been looking at. Those stock prices are going to collapse, period. Don't know when or what will be the catalyst, but can guarantee you they'll fall, and fall hard.


This is the pump and dump. The bottom is coming out of the empire and the money is drying up.
Plus, the same job creators who have been screaming, "UNCERTAINTY!" are now going to fix it so that the first black president (actually a modern-day Chicago-school version of Herbert Hoover) will be sure to be left holding the bag on the greatest economic collapse in American history.
 
2013-07-20 04:37:37 PM
Stop approving Marketwatch links
 
2013-07-20 04:46:21 PM
Oh, look. Some asshole from Goldman Sachs just moved all of his assets from stocks into bonds and now he's trying to scare the public into selling to drive a quick panic drop of the DJIA by 2 or 3%, so he can then move his assets back into stocks at the lower price and make a quick million bucks when the market corrects back to normal.
 
2013-07-20 04:57:40 PM
Subby, *I* have a "track record" of being right if you only look at things I am right about.
 
2013-07-20 05:18:23 PM

LouDobbsAwaaaay: A 64% crash is 43%, once again proving nature's harmonic simultaneous 4-day time cube.


this is the awesomest post i've seen today. thank you.

/Belief has no inherentvalue, but worship of such nonvalue as agod, e quates to nonacceptance of Cubic knowledge
 
2013-07-20 05:18:58 PM
"I really don't think there is any money to be made in the us stock market" Peter Shiff, may 2009... The s and p have only doubled, not counting dividends since that point
 
2013-07-20 05:26:38 PM
someone must be holding on to a ton of worthless gold options.  Quick sheep!  Drive up the commodity market, before it too late!
 
2013-07-20 05:49:59 PM
from the same morons who were pimping gold to RWTR idiots at its peak ?
 
2013-07-20 05:51:45 PM

meyerkev: BKITU: As if to punctuate his new warning, Burnham's PBS editor added this postscript: "Over the weekend at ZeroHedge.com, the gloomiest of all gloomsters

[farm4.staticflickr.com image 250x272]

So what's up with ZeroHedge?  I was looking for a picture on the welfare cliff, took the first hit off Google, linked it, and got a bunch of hate for using ZeroHedge (despite having never knowingly been there before).
So what's the bias?  Communism, Capitalism, Collapse of capitalism leading to anarchy, Attractive and Successful in the White House, just plain crazy?  From the few articles I read, it mostly seemed to be:

"A combination of increasing welfare transfers to the poor combined with crony capitalism to the powerful rich elites are combining to crush the middle class and we can totally fix this by ending welfare and biatching about the crony capitalism".


ZeroHedge is what you get when you have the emotionally disturbed braintrust of FreeRepublic deluded into thinking they can be the next Jim Cramer.
 
2013-07-20 05:52:23 PM
Manipulate that market!
 
2013-07-20 06:02:17 PM

HempHead: LouDobbsAwaaaay: A 64% crash is 43%, once again proving nature's harmonic simultaneous 4-day time cube.

I

I don't think 4% Xs 4% Xs 4% = 64%


He said 43%, not (4%)3.

/I'm going to assume order of operations includes percentages as a multiplication/division operation.
 
2013-07-20 06:08:49 PM
These people are attempting to manipulate markets for their own purposes.
 
2013-07-20 06:11:03 PM
Step 1:  Have a time horizon > 20 years
Step 2:  Dollar cost average into index funds/ETFs
Step 3:  ???
Step 4:  Profit!

Come to think of it, step 3 is simply to wait.  All a crash would mean is that you buy the market cheap and yield higher returns when you do sell.  This isn't rocket science.

And where's my book deal?
 
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