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(The New York Times)   Nate Silver predicts that Nate Silver will leave the New York Times for ESPN this summer   (nytimes.com) divider line 41
    More: Spiffy, ESPN, The New York Times Company, Baseball Prospectus, statistical model, Jill Abramson  
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890 clicks; posted to Sports » on 19 Jul 2013 at 11:34 PM (51 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



41 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2013-07-19 10:34:25 PM
He's still doing election stuff, right? That stuff will be on ESPN? Seems odd.
 
2013-07-19 11:01:09 PM
Awwwwww. He's awesome, and sports suck
 
2013-07-19 11:37:45 PM

DamnYankees: He's still doing election stuff, right? That stuff will be on ESPN? Seems odd.


You know what they should do...put him on ABC News during election years. I should totally point that out to them.
 
2013-07-20 12:06:40 AM
WHO? gives a fark
 
2013-07-20 12:26:17 AM
Nate Silver predicts there is a 98.4% probability that Nate Silver will own ALL the cash.

Good for him.

/is he the first openly gay ESPN or Disney guy?
 
2013-07-20 12:27:46 AM
Figures that the LIEbrul media only covers the vote-fraud enabling Silver hire and ignores the hiring of the new ESPN NASCAR analyst.

static5.businessinsider.com
 
2013-07-20 12:28:37 AM

DirtyDeadGhostofEbenezerCooke: Nate Silver predicts there is a 98.4% probability that Nate Silver will own ALL the cash.

Good for him.

/is he the first openly gay ESPN or Disney guy?


He's openly gay?  I thought that was just Romney fan-boy dreaming/bashing?
 
2013-07-20 12:31:22 AM

kudayta: DirtyDeadGhostofEbenezerCooke: Nate Silver predicts there is a 98.4% probability that Nate Silver will own ALL the cash.

Good for him.

/is he the first openly gay ESPN or Disney guy?

He's openly gay?  I thought that was just Romney fan-boy dreaming/bashing?


Just read the wiki page on the guy.  Yeah, he loves the cock.  How about that.

/Good for him.
 
2013-07-20 12:50:22 AM

kudayta: kudayta: DirtyDeadGhostofEbenezerCooke: Nate Silver predicts there is a 98.4% probability that Nate Silver will own ALL the cash.

Good for him.

/is he the first openly gay ESPN or Disney guy?

He's openly gay?  I thought that was just Romney fan-boy dreaming/bashing?

Just read the wiki page on the guy.  Yeah, he loves the cock.  How about that.

/Good for him.


Was the wiki page edited by Silver himself, someone who knows him personally, or some Romney fanboy (yeah, as if more than a dozen or so people were voting for Romney instead of against Obama) FartB0ngo-hater who thinks that SIlver being gay automatically means all his political analyses are invalid?

/if he is openly gay, I agree with your sentiment -- good for him.
//but honestly, I don't care about other people's sexual orientation, so long as they're not hypocrites about it (like saying homosexuality is a sin and/or should be illegal and then getting caught in an airport restroom)
 
2013-07-20 12:52:25 AM

DamnYankees: He's still doing election stuff, right? That stuff will be on ESPN? Seems odd.


TFA: "In political years, he will also have a role at ABC News, which is owned by Disney."
 
2013-07-20 12:54:11 AM
Yes, Nate Silver is gay.  Nobody who matters cares.
 
2013-07-20 12:55:47 AM
He is openly gay, so yeah his wiki page is accurate.

And politics was a side gig for him until recently. He made his bones by writing what is still the top baseball prediction model. ESPN is a perfect home for him.
 
2013-07-20 01:10:08 AM
While this is somewhat an ESPN hire, I think the political/ABC News side had just as much interest in having him.   I'm guessing he'll have a regular segment on "This Week" leading up to the 2014 & 2016 elections.
 
2013-07-20 01:11:48 AM

DirtyDeadGhostofEbenezerCooke: Nate Silver predicts there is a 98.4% probability that Nate Silver will own ALL the cash.

Good for him.

/is he the first openly gay ESPN or Disney guy?


I have no idea about ESPN, but the president of WDW is openly gay.
 
2013-07-20 01:12:45 AM
The thing is, Nate Silver himself is not really needed, it's his method of using polls-of-polls that is so effective, and anyone can do it.  He massages the final numbers with some secret sauce, but the basic technique does 95% of the work.
 
2013-07-20 01:24:33 AM

dletter: While this is somewhat an ESPN hire, I think the political/ABC News side had just as much interest in having him.   I'm guessing he'll have a regular segment on "This Week" leading up to the 2014 & 2016 elections.


Pretty much word for word what I was thinking. It seems like his primary role will be as an ESPN advanced stats guy and then come election time, he'll be all over ABC News shows.

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: The thing is, Nate Silver himself is not really needed, it's his method of using polls-of-polls that is so effective, and anyone can do it.  He massages the final numbers with some secret sauce, but the basic technique does 95% of the work.


The thing is that there were a few people/organizations doing the poll-of-polls predictions thing last year, but not all of them got it 100% right. Of the few who were perfect, Silver had the biggest megaphone for his work by far.
 
2013-07-20 01:29:31 AM
the nate silver bandwagon is an accident of timing. he does nothing special, his analytics are neither innovative nor sophisticated, and his opinions are as forgettable as the next dozen talking heads.

it's great that the public is more conscious of statistics and good ways of using it, and let's hope that silver breaking through opens the door for more logical, fact-checked discussion.

it just goes to show you don't have to be the first or the best, you just have to capture attention. truly The Sims predicted this: the highest point of any career ladder is Celebrity <blah>

Celebrity Chef
Celebrity Handyman
Celebrity Statistician
 
2013-07-20 01:39:41 AM

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: The thing is, Nate Silver himself is not really needed, it's his method of using polls-of-polls that is so effective, and anyone can do it.  He massages the final numbers with some secret sauce, but the basic technique does 95% of the work.


True. And he is actually fairly open about that fact.  For several reasons: he doesn't want to be accused of being a partisan, he wants it known that it is by the numbers not by his gut, he wants the news providers (CNN, Fox, etc)  to stop with the "a single poll" mentality.
 
2013-07-20 01:44:27 AM

RyansPrivates: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: The thing is, Nate Silver himself is not really needed, it's his method of using polls-of-polls that is so effective, and anyone can do it.  He massages the final numbers with some secret sauce, but the basic technique does 95% of the work.

True. And he is actually fairly open about that fact.  For several reasons: he doesn't want to be accused of being a partisan, he wants it known that it is by the numbers not by his gut, he wants the news providers (CNN, Fox, etc)  to stop with the "a single poll" mentality.


But the media hates him because he kills all of their spin and drama.  "The new polls are out: let's plug them into the matrix and see just how little things change." doesn't get the blood pumping.
 
2013-07-20 02:09:50 AM

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: But the media hates him because he kills all of their spin and drama.  "The new polls are out: let's plug them into the matrix and see just how little things change." doesn't get the blood pumping.


Exactly. On his site, he had Obama winning and winning by a significant margin the whole year. I think that over the final month of the campaign, he only had two states switch winners because of the polling and only one of them (Florida) switched in the final weekend. And Silver was openly critical of the media saying over and over "it's a close race" when it was clear that it wasn't close.
 
2013-07-20 02:17:41 AM

I eat mop: the nate silver bandwagon is an accident of timing. he does nothing special, his analytics are neither innovative nor sophisticated, and his opinions are as forgettable as the next dozen talking heads.

it's great that the public is more conscious of statistics and good ways of using it, and let's hope that silver breaking through opens the door for more logical, fact-checked discussion.

it just goes to show you don't have to be the first or the best, you just have to capture attention. truly The Sims predicted this: the highest point of any career ladder is Celebrity <blah>

Celebrity Chef
Celebrity Handyman
Celebrity Statistician


I would argue that PECOTA, which is what's relevant to his sports analysis, is both sophisticated and innovative. As for his celebrity, he has the touch for making complicated topics accessible and interesting for non experts. Technical peopls tend to underrate the rarity and value of that skill. There's a reason no one did it first. As someone with a fair bit of formal statistical training, "the signal and the noise" is by far the best basic primer on statistical concepts I know
 
2013-07-20 03:51:56 AM

kevinatilusa: DamnYankees: He's still doing election stuff, right? That stuff will be on ESPN? Seems odd.

TFA: "In political years, he will also have a role at ABC News, which is owned by Disney."


What's a "political year"?  Is this year apolitical because it's not an election year?  Hardly feels that way.
 
2013-07-20 06:35:36 AM

I eat mop: he does nothing special, his analytics are neither innovative nor sophisticated, and his opinions are as forgettable as the next dozen talking heads.


You know what makes him different? It's because he's a writer and isn't just presenting numbers in a boring way. If the other analytics nerdy types could write then they might be in his position. Nothing accidental about it.
 
2013-07-20 07:21:09 AM

I eat mop: the nate silver bandwagon is an accident of timing. he does nothing special, his analytics are neither innovative nor sophisticated, and his opinions are as forgettable as the next dozen talking heads.


Yeah...I've been reading his political stuff since before he created 538.com (feel free to look at his "pablano" posts on Daily Kos, I commented on a lot of them). What he was doing during the Democratic primary in 2008 was utterly unique and no one was doing anything remotely similar. He's much better at predicting than the talking heads, and much better at writing than the stat heads. The guy knows his shiat. Stop hating.
 
2013-07-20 08:25:40 AM
Nate Silver doing analysis on Olbermans show. What decade is this?

/Good for you, Poblano
 
2013-07-20 08:46:47 AM

RyansPrivates: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: The thing is, Nate Silver himself is not really needed, it's his method of using polls-of-polls that is so effective, and anyone can do it.  He massages the final numbers with some secret sauce, but the basic technique does 95% of the work.

True. And he is actually fairly open about that fact.  For several reasons: he doesn't want to be accused of being a partisan, he wants it known that it is by the numbers not by his gut, he wants the news providers (CNN, Fox, etc)  to stop with the "a single poll" mentality.


Plenty of places to raw poll averages. His secret sauce is weighting polls based on previous track records of the polling agency, time the poll was taken, sample size, etc. Somewhat controversially, he adjusts poll results for proven "house effects". Hence the whole "unskewed" movement. However, Silver was ultimately vindicated in his decision, since his adjustments were based on mathematical results, not emotion
 
2013-07-20 10:11:14 AM

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: RyansPrivates: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: The thing is, Nate Silver himself is not really needed, it's his method of using polls-of-polls that is so effective, and anyone can do it.  He massages the final numbers with some secret sauce, but the basic technique does 95% of the work.

True. And he is actually fairly open about that fact.  For several reasons: he doesn't want to be accused of being a partisan, he wants it known that it is by the numbers not by his gut, he wants the news providers (CNN, Fox, etc)  to stop with the "a single poll" mentality.

But the media hates him because he kills all of their spin and drama.  "The new polls are out: let's plug them into the matrix and see just how little things change." doesn't get the blood pumping.


Can I chime in a say "Fark the media"?

Okay, thanks, got that out of my system.
 
2013-07-20 10:12:07 AM

Super Chronic: kevinatilusa: DamnYankees: He's still doing election stuff, right? That stuff will be on ESPN? Seems odd.

TFA: "In political years, he will also have a role at ABC News, which is owned by Disney."

What's a "political year"?  Is this year apolitical because it's not an election year?  Hardly feels that way.


I guess they meant to say "big political year"; i.e. 2014, 2016, 2018 and so forth.
 
2013-07-20 10:12:35 AM

DirtyDeadGhostofEbenezerCooke: /is he the first openly gay ESPN or Disney guy?


Keith Law is gayer than 4 buckets of penises, so no.
 
2013-07-20 10:46:34 AM
Put him on Grantland so he has more freedom
 
2013-07-20 10:56:42 AM

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: RyansPrivates: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: The thing is, Nate Silver himself is not really needed, it's his method of using polls-of-polls that is so effective, and anyone can do it.  He massages the final numbers with some secret sauce, but the basic technique does 95% of the work.

True. And he is actually fairly open about that fact.  For several reasons: he doesn't want to be accused of being a partisan, he wants it known that it is by the numbers not by his gut, he wants the news providers (CNN, Fox, etc)  to stop with the "a single poll" mentality.

But the media hates him because he kills all of their spin and drama.  "The new polls are out: let's plug them into the matrix and see just how little things change." doesn't get the blood pumping.


So if the "media" hates him then why did the NYT hire him?
 
2013-07-20 11:16:29 AM

TheManofPA: Put him on Grantland so he has more freedom


This.

Plus a podcast w/ Gladwell, Silver & Simmons would be really interesting. Well, if Simmons would stop talking about the NBA for three seconds, it might be.
 
2013-07-20 11:33:59 AM

Neeek: I eat mop: the nate silver bandwagon is an accident of timing. he does nothing special, his analytics are neither innovative nor sophisticated, and his opinions are as forgettable as the next dozen talking heads.

Yeah...I've been reading his political stuff since before he created 538.com (feel free to look at his "pablano" posts on Daily Kos, I commented on a lot of them). What he was doing during the Democratic primary in 2008 was utterly unique and no one was doing anything remotely similar. He's much better at predicting than the talking heads, and much better at writing than the stat heads. The guy knows his shiat. Stop hating.


I always thought he was pretty open about his work being founded on established methods and humble about his own contribution.  He's had too spectacularly accurate presidential elections, but I think his buzz really got a boost from how inaccurate the Republican predictions were.  Karl Rove flailing around like a fat kid that had his ice cream stolen is what made the 'Drunk Nate Silver predicts' meme go.
 
2013-07-20 12:27:00 PM

TheManofPA: Put him on Grantland so he has more freedom


Maybe limit 538 to politics only and have any sports writing on Grantland. He'd fit in well there.

/Simmons is probably already begging to have this happen
 
2013-07-20 12:27:10 PM

I eat mop: the nate silver bandwagon is an accident of timing. he does nothing special, his analytics are neither innovative nor sophisticated, and his opinions are as forgettable as the next dozen talking heads.

it's great that the public is more conscious of statistics and good ways of using it, and let's hope that silver breaking through opens the door for more logical, fact-checked discussion.

it just goes to show you don't have to be the first or the best, you just have to capture attention. truly The Sims predicted this: the highest point of any career ladder is Celebrity <blah>

Celebrity Chef
Celebrity Handyman
Celebrity Statistician


He does do something special, he uses facts instead of just opinion and in the US now that's extremely rare.
 
2013-07-20 12:40:57 PM

Straight Outta Wells Branch: TheManofPA: Put him on Grantland so he has more freedom

This.

Plus a podcast w/ Gladwell, Silver & Simmons would be really interesting. Well, if Simmons would stop talking about the NBA for three seconds, it might be.


They did that once didn't they? When Silver was promoting his book. Or was that just a dream?
 
2013-07-20 03:09:18 PM
Nate Silver, the guy everyone listens to unless it has to do with Mike Trout.
 
2013-07-20 07:11:17 PM

I eat mop: the nate silver bandwagon is an accident of timing. he does nothing special, his analytics are neither innovative nor sophisticated, and his opinions are as forgettable as the next dozen talking heads.

it's great that the public is more conscious of statistics and good ways of using it, and let's hope that silver breaking through opens the door for more logical, fact-checked discussion.

it just goes to show you don't have to be the first or the best, you just have to capture attention. truly The Sims predicted this: the highest point of any career ladder is Celebrity <blah>

Celebrity Chef
Celebrity Handyman
Celebrity Statistician


If you're talking about it in terms of monetary gain, why wouldn't it be? Name recognition is what makes you famous, and it's also how you make money in business. It's not rocket science.
 
2013-07-20 09:58:59 PM

ghall3: Straight Outta Wells Branch: TheManofPA: Put him on Grantland so he has more freedom

This.

Plus a podcast w/ Gladwell, Silver & Simmons would be really interesting. Well, if Simmons would stop talking about the NBA for three seconds, it might be.

They did that once didn't they? When Silver was promoting his book. Or was that just a dream?


Simmons gets along with Silver and I believe has done a podcast or two. He was happy when he succeeded with the election (and posted when Silver was doing well in WSOP). I just don't want him stuck on sportscenter or forced to write stupid "teehee, we brought in a guy who knows math" followed by Herm going "Well, yeah, the numbers say that but MY GUY SAYS CLEVELAND THIS WEEK JIMMY" and then they debate it at full volume after Nate's analysis goes to waste. Silver would be a great addition to some of the great team at Grantland and would filter in nicely to do baseball a lot like how Barnwell does NFL (minus his crapping the bed on San Fran last year).
 
2013-07-20 10:57:42 PM

kudayta: kudayta: DirtyDeadGhostofEbenezerCooke: Nate Silver predicts there is a 98.4% probability that Nate Silver will own ALL the cash.

Good for him.

/is he the first openly gay ESPN or Disney guy?

He's openly gay?  I thought that was just Romney fan-boy dreaming/bashing?

Just read the wiki page on the guy.  Yeah, he loves the cock.  How about that.

/Good for him.



Wow, talk about stereotyping. You think just because he's gay he automatically "loves the cock"? Maybe he hates the cock. He might be totally gay, but totally hate the cock. It's possible.

Though if that's the case, sucks to be him. Or rather, opts not to suck, I guess.
 
2013-07-20 11:27:29 PM

steerforth: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: RyansPrivates: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: The thing is, Nate Silver himself is not really needed, it's his method of using polls-of-polls that is so effective, and anyone can do it.  He massages the final numbers with some secret sauce, but the basic technique does 95% of the work.

True. And he is actually fairly open about that fact.  For several reasons: he doesn't want to be accused of being a partisan, he wants it known that it is by the numbers not by his gut, he wants the news providers (CNN, Fox, etc)  to stop with the "a single poll" mentality.

But the media hates him because he kills all of their spin and drama.  "The new polls are out: let's plug them into the matrix and see just how little things change." doesn't get the blood pumping.

So if the "media" hates him then why did the NYT hire him?


The same reason *everyone* in the media interacts with people they hate - He brings in an audience.
 
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